they have seen. some politicians coming here to try and put their side of the equation. that is when the hubbub goes through the roof after the debate, as people react to what they have seen. let's look ahead to what may be coming any direction of sir keir starmer and rishi sunak. they will all have been gaming out what kind of questions they might want to get. where do you think each will be put under the most pressure?— think each will be put under the most pressure? what is different about this one _ most pressure? what is different about this one as _ most pressure? what is different about this one as they _ most pressure? what is different about this one as they have - most pressure? what is different about this one as they have been through a couple of these already so they will be attuned to what is coming. but they won't really know where the audience will be coming from. but i'm sure cost of living, taxation, the environment, all those things will come and i think both of them will have been put under pressure over tax because outside economists have said neither have been honest about what is coming down the track and when that is put to them, it puts both of them on the back foot, plus they have been slinging members at each other about who will put tax up more than the other. i don't know how much the audience likes that kind of thing because in the end i think most people feel that they don't quite know what will happen after the election regardless of which party does come in. when it comes to issues like immigration, i think it issues like immigration, i think it is where they will both come under pressure, the conservatives will say we have a plan, you have seen our plan, the deportation scheme and they can say they have something to do because it has not really got off the ground, literally, yet, they will turn that on labour to say you don't have any plan at all. i think those two are where they both really come under a lot of pressure but i sometimes think it is the personal questions that throw the leaders a little bit more because they have to think on their feet and it is nothing they can rehearse. they might not know what is coming, about leadership, what are you most proud of, one that is often asked is what do you think is the best quality of your opponent? that is a very tricky one. that kind of thing can catch them out. , one. that kind of thing can catch them out-— one. that kind of thing can catch them out. , , ., ,~' them out. sometimes they get asked about our them out. sometimes they get asked about your faults _ them out. sometimes they get asked about your faults and _ them out. sometimes they get asked about your faults and they _ them out. sometimes they get asked about your faults and they say - them out. sometimes they get asked about your faults and they say i - them out. sometimes they get asked about your faults and they say i am i about your faults and they say i am about your faults and they say i am a perfectionist. i about your faults and they say i am a perfectionist.— a perfectionist. i try to hard. those are — a perfectionist. i try to hard. those are some _ a perfectionist. i try to hard. those are some of _ a perfectionist. i try to hard. those are some of the - a perfectionist. i try to hard. | those are some of the policy details. as i understand, a question will be asked at once —— once an issue has been raised, they will be a to—and—fro between the two men and may be mishal husain as well. that is different to _ may be mishal husain as well. twat is different to previous once there will —— where they was a limited chance to respond. this sounds a bit more free—flowing and for mishal husain, it is about trying to control them talking over each other, do they attack each other, it is very difficult i think on you have a live audience because you go back to the questionnaire and you say are you happy with that answer? it is difficult to fob off the question when it is a member of the publico often will have a personal experience, a caring issue, the nhs, it is tricky because it may be someone who has had a difficult time and you don't want to sound like a robot giving a policy answer. they will be mindful of the broader picture. the conservatives, rishi sunak, he is struggling, there has been no narrowing in the polls so far that we can see. and that is not what they hoped for. is he going to decide this is my last chance, i have to go for it? but he also will face questions about the betting story, he has a lot of things that have gone on during the campaign that he will have to asked answer. you have contacts within both parties. will they carve out significant amounts of time for the two leaders and their teams around them, will it be a priority? t two leaders and their teams around them, will it be a priority?- them, will it be a priority? i think so. this them, will it be a priority? i think s0- this is _ them, will it be a priority? i think so. this is something _ them, will it be a priority? i think so. this is something we - them, will it be a priority? i think so. this is something we have . them, will it be a priority? i think. so. this is something we have been having for a few years now. the debates have become an important part of the campaign. they really punctuate the campaign and of course it is a chance for viewers and listeners to really hear directly from the leaders and for them to appeal directly to them. it is quite unusual in that sense. it is not a leaflet through the door, facebook, online messages, it is actually into the living room. it is very important and of course the way it is written up is important because thenit is written up is important because then it is analysed later on and people trawl through all the different things, trying to see who the winner was. let different things, trying to see who the winner was.— different things, trying to see who the winner was. ., , ., ., the winner was. let me ask you about the winner was. let me ask you about the sin the winner was. let me ask you about the spin room. _ the winner was. let me ask you about the spin room. a _ the winner was. let me ask you about the spin room, a lot— the winner was. let me ask you about the spin room, a lot of— the winner was. let me ask you about the spin room, a lot of theatre - the winner was. let me ask you about the spin room, a lot of theatre to - the spin room, a lot of theatre to the spin room, a lot of theatre to the spin room in the aftermath of the spin room in the aftermath of the tv debates. some people say it might be good theatre but how much are we really learning? to what degree does a tv debate like this shape the political coverage of the campaign? t shape the political coverage of the cam aian? ~ shape the political coverage of the camaiun? ~' ., , shape the political coverage of the camuain? ~' ., , ~ ., campaign? i think it does. what i have found _ campaign? i think it does. what i have found in _ campaign? i think it does. what i have found in the _ campaign? i think it does. what i have found in the previous - campaign? i think it does. what i have found in the previous ones i campaign? i think it does. what i l have found in the previous ones is that you can really tell where they feel their weak points and strong points are because the people spinning for them and you have been speaking to some already, they all clearly are watching it in another room, talking and discussing what was good and bad... and then i saw that coming and talk about it. any verse one it was interesting because there was a lot about keir starmer not closing down this suggestion from rishi sunak that labour would put up taxes by £2000 per household. we thought it was strange he had not done that. julie etchingham said we will come back to tax and they did not do it. but as soon as the spinners came in, they immediately started talking about that and rebutting that suggestion. they had been watching as well. and realising, we have to shut this down. you can tell afterwards what they're focusing on and what they are attacking their opponent on, where they think they have won some point so they have been strong or weak on it. point so they have been strong or weak on it— weak on it. when we talk about spinners. _ weak on it. when we talk about spinners, sometimes _ weak on it. when we talk about spinners, sometimes generally | weak on it. when we talk about - spinners, sometimes generally with politics, we talk about people working in e—commerce operations but in the case of spin rooms, the people doing the spinning are normally senior politicians. that is somethina normally senior politicians. that is something that _ normally senior politicians. that is something that has _ normally senior politicians. that is something that has been - normally senior politicians. that is i something that has been introduced even more so now. i think there are five members of the shadow cabinet year. the last one, there were members of the cabinet as well. i think they have definitely at the game by putting in pretty senior people do, do all of that and it is on the record, it is not from an anonymous source. it is people say directly what they think is happen. the viewers canjudge directly what they think is happen. the viewers can judge for themselves. the viewers can 'udge for themselves._ the viewers can 'udge for themselves. , ., ., ., themselves. there is no shortage of micmphones — themselves. there is no shortage of microphones and _ themselves. there is no shortage of microphones and cameras. - microphones and cameras. just a reminder if you are switching on, we are at nottingham trent university, building up to the prime ministerial debate, hosted by mishal husain that starts at 8:15pm. you can watch it on bbc iplayer, bbc news and bbc one. you may have a lot of questions about how these kind of debates are organised, how the format is settled on and so forth and i have been speaking about that to a senior bbc news executive comedy ofjournalism. we aren't our colleagues and other broadcasters talk to the parties and the representatives over time. if they choose not to take part, that means they would not be a head—to—head —— head debate. with the seven hand—out early in the campaign, some leaders choose to put up campaign, some leaders choose to put up a death or a party spokesman and thatis up a death or a party spokesman and that is fine but for this programme it has to be the two people who could be prime minister of this country. they cannot send a standard. —— stand in. i am joined standard. —— stand in. iamjoined bya —— stand in. i am joined by a representative of a polling company. thank you for your help on occasions like this. there is an inevitability that there is a perception of how this matters in the way the polling has been published.— this matters in the way the polling has been published. that's right. we have not seen _ has been published. that's right. we have not seen much _ has been published. that's right. we have not seen much movement - has been published. that's right. we have not seen much movement yet. | has been published. that's right. we i have not seen much movement yet. as a result of the debate. we have not seen much movement in the polls generally speaking. we have seen reform game ground that has not really been as a result of anything has happened. this is what it is all about. the event today coming as it does so close to the actual election day represents a good chance but also in many ways the last scheduled chance to make a difference. does ollin: chance to make a difference. does polling follow _ chance to make a difference. does polling follow similar _ chance to make a difference. does polling follow similar patterns? is it more likely to move in the last week or the first week of the campaign?— week or the first week of the cam-cain? , . , ,, campaign? generally speaking, between a _ campaign? generally speaking, between a third _ campaign? generally speaking, between a third and _ campaign? generally speaking, between a third and 4096 - campaign? generally speaking, between a third and 4096 of - campaign? generally speaking, - between a third and 4096 of people between a third and 40% of people say they make their minds up during the campaign but often people think that means they change their mind when in actualfact that means they change their mind when in actual fact in that means they change their mind when in actualfact in most that means they change their mind when in actual fact in most cases that means they change their mind when in actualfact in most cases it willjust when in actualfact in most cases it will just settle. when in actualfact in most cases it willjust settle. but when in actualfact in most cases it will just settle. but we when in actualfact in most cases it willjust settle. but we know when in actualfact in most cases it will just settle. but we know there is also people who don't pay much attention to things until the last week. forthe attention to things until the last week. for the average person on the street, less engaged people, it will be the last few days and events like this that really will be if anything the only time they pay close attention. t the only time they pay close attention-— the only time they pay close attention. . , , , ., ~ ., ., attention. i was speaking to a member of— attention. i was speaking to a member of the _ attention. i was speaking to a member of the shadow - attention. i was speaking to a i member of the shadow cabinet, attention. i was speaking to a - member of the shadow cabinet, they say they are telling all their colleagues and voters as well, the polls, a lot of people who don't know which way they will go. keep working and pushing, was the message from that member of the shadow cabinet. is that fair or actually do you think that most people are approaching settling? tt is you think that most people are approaching settling?- approaching settling? it is fair because it _ approaching settling? it is fair because it is _ approaching settling? it is fair because it is not _ approaching settling? it is fair because it is not about - approaching settling? it is fair because it is not about the - approaching settling? it is fair - because it is not about the national poll it is about the constituencies. and each one of those contests can make a big difference to the overall outcome. small changes can still be important. it does not surprise me that all the parties are still really going for it. fit, that all the parties are still really going for it. a couple of questions _ really going for it. a couple of questions coming _ really going for it. a couple of questions coming out - really going for it. a couple of questions coming out is - really going for it. a couple of questions coming out is how. really going for it. a couple of - questions coming out is how accurate are the polls and how influential are the polls and how influential are they? let start with how accurate they are. what do you imagine a margin of error would be? by imagine a margin of error would be? by historical standards, in nine out of ten occasions, the final result has been within plus or —4% of the actual outcome and two thirds of the time it has been within plus or minus 2%. by historical standards, they tend to be accurate but that is not being they are always accurate. they can be —— they can be potential for movement. at the league that labour has at the moment far exceeds anything any history of polling that suggests the overall story could be different. stand suggests the overall story could be different. �* , ., , , suggests the overall story could be different. �* i, ., different. and give us a type of oll that different. and give us a type of poll that has — different. and give us a type of poll that has been _ different. and give us a type of poll that has been given - different. and give us a type of poll that has been given a - different. and give us a type of poll that has been given a lot l different. and give us a type of| poll that has been given a lot of attention, people who have not encountered these yet, introduce as to them because they be —— had been driving some big headlines and reactions? abs, driving some big headlines and reactions? �* , ., driving some big headlines and reactions? ~ , ., ., driving some big headlines and reactions?_ driving some big headlines and reactions? ~ , ., ., , , ., reactions? a short and simple way to think about it — reactions? a short and simple way to think about it is _ reactions? a short and simple way to think about it is a _ reactions? a short and simple way to think about it is a conventional- think about it is a conventional national poll is kind of like a big bowl of lego. 0f national poll is kind of like a big bowl of lego. of the other toys are available. to work out the seats, you would then break into individual seats were —— working techniques like swing and things like that. but through mrp surveys, they take individual blocks and try to work out how each one of those 650 contacts in the country will play out, using statistical modelling, and then add it up.— out, using statistical modelling, and then add it up. they have been caettin a and then add it up. they have been getting a lot _ and then add it up. they have been getting a lot of _ and then add it up. they have been getting a lot of attention _ and then add it up. they have been getting a lot of attention because l getting a lot of attention because they are saying we think this is how they are saying we think this is how the house of commons could look. yes, because translating the share of the vote into the share of the seat is extremely difficult. share of the vote into the share of the seat is extremely difficult. are you comfortable _ seat is extremely difficult. are you comfortable with _ seat is extremely difficult. are you comfortable with how _ seat is extremely difficult. are you comfortable with how much - seat is extremely difficult. are you i comfortable with how much attention they have been getting, given that some have project outcomes that are really quite different to other polls? really quite different to other olls? �* ,., , really quite different to other olls? �* , ., really quite different to other olls? ., polls? all polls involve assumptions and they involve _ polls? all polls involve assumptions and they involve modelling - polls? all polls involve assumptions and they involve modelling and - polls? all polls involve assumptionsj and they involve modelling and they involve particular decisions that pollsters are making and that is true for mrp surveys. but in and of themselves, tojust true for mrp surveys. but in and of themselves, to just a statistical technique and there are good ones and they will be bad ones. just because it uses these techniques, it is not necessarily mean it is any better, it means it is approaching it in a different way.— it in a different way. different --eole it in a different way. different people are — it in a different way. different people are using _ it in a different way. different people are using different - people are using different methodology for their mrp polls. someone is going to get to chilly the fifth and think may be ousted not work as well.— not work as well. they are all makin: not work as well. they are all making specific _ not work as well. they are all making specific decisions - not work as well. they are all l making specific decisions about not work as well. they are all - making specific decisions about what they think will be important in individual constituencies, picking data that they think will be useful and making assumptions about the way they think the electio