the new leaderfor reform uk, nigel farage, has called for zero net migration. the conservatives responded today pledging a cap on the number of visas available. will labour match that commitment? we will look ahead to tonight to that debate, and the impact of nigel farage's formal declaration today that he is running as a candidate in margate on sea. a very warm welcome to the programme. we are just a short time away from the first set piece moment of the campaign leaders — rishi sunak and sir keir starmer arriving at media city, in salford a short time ago. you can argue whether these tv debate matter any more, but i assure you the leaders know the importance of it. both sides have been setting aside time for prep. dummy debates with colleagues. countless sessions thrashing out the various lines of attack, and defence. one senior labour figure said today that sir keir was heading back to his old job tonight "the country's chief prosecutor who will tonight put 14 years of tory rule in the dock". but the labour leader might also face some cross examination himself as his own plans come under more scrutiny. he knows he needs a clean bout tonight, nothing to unsettle the polls, the prime minister will be hoping he can roll back the years, to 2010 — the last time these debates shifted the dial. element you'll be told tonight by these two that the only choice you can make is between two old parties who have been running things for years. i'm here to persuade you that there is an alternative. i years. i'm here to persuade you that there is an alternative.— there is an alternative. i agree with nick- _ there is an alternative. i agree with nick- i — there is an alternative. i agree with nick. i agree _ there is an alternative. i agree with nick. i agree with - there is an alternative. i agree with nick. i agree with nick. . there is an alternative. i agree i with nick. i agree with nick. see, there is an alternative. i agree - with nick. i agree with nick. see, i agree _ with nick. i agree with nick. see, i agree with — with nick. i agree with nick. see, i agree with neck.— agree with neck. applause i a . ree agree with neck. applause i agree with _ agree with neck. applause i agree with nick. _ bbc deputy political editor vicki young joins us from salford, which is hosting the debate. the anticipation no doubt mounting. what does the prime minister have to do tonight? i what does the prime minister have to do toni . ht? ~ what does the prime minister have to do toniaht? ~ 3 what does the prime minister have to do toniaht? ,, �*, ., do tonight? i think it's worth lookin: do tonight? i think it's worth looking at — do tonight? i think it's worth looking at the _ do tonight? i think it's worth looking at the different - do tonight? i think it's worth | looking at the different place both these leaders are coming from. if you look at rishi sunak, firstly and obviously, he has a record to defend — and it's a pretty patchy one. also because is notjust his record, it's borisjohnson's, liz because is notjust his record, it's boris johnson's, liz truss's, there's been a pandemic, a cost—of—living crisis. so he has an awful lot he has to defend, and that makes it much more difficult for him. then if he starts promising, which he has done, about things he'll do in the future, of course lots of people will be saying, "why didn't you do that before?" and on top of that, opinion polls show he's a very long way behind. now conservative spinners here have started spinning, even though the debate hasn't even started. they say the polls are not the same as what they are hearing on the doorstep. they say people are a lot more undecided and haven't made up their mind about sir keir starmer. but there's no doubt rishi sunak cannot be content with a drawl tonight. he needs to win this because for all his policy announcements he's made, they haven't actually changed the polls, it doesn't seem people are listening or liking the message he's putting across. so he certainly wants to give the conservatives something to cheer about. the labour leader has just — something to cheer about. the labour leader hasjust been _ something to cheer about. the labour leader hasjust been handed _ something to cheer about. the labour leader hasjust been handed a - something to cheer about. the labour leader hasjust been handed a poll- leader has just been handed a poll which suggests he'll win more seats than he did and that landslide victory in 1997. when you're out on the campaign, does it feel like 1997? �* , , the campaign, does it feel like 1997? y , , , ., ., 1997? it's interesting because a lot of even labour _ 1997? it's interesting because a lot of even labour mps _ 1997? it's interesting because a lot of even labour mps say _ 1997? it's interesting because a lot of even labour mps say that - 1997? it's interesting because a lot of even labour mps say that it - of even labour mps say that it doesn't really. who knows what will happen? but there certainly is a very powerful feeling of a need for change, i think that's what mps very powerful feeling of a need for change, i think that's what mp5 on both sides can say about all this. you have a party that's been in power for a very long time, you have a party that's been in powerfor a very long time, then that tends to be what happens, and it's certainly what happened in 1997. now i think there are labour people who are actually pretty worried, and a very strange way, about those polls, about complacency, about knocking on doors and people saying they are undecided but you don't need me anyway because you'll win by so much. there is a job for keir starmer to do here. they'll say it's easier to analyse and complain about things the party has been doing for 14 years, but it does also have to maybe inspire people to come out and vote labour after all these years. so will he managed to do that? labour have been very cautious not to overpromise, they know the economic situation means there's not much money to throw around, they are trying not to commit to things they say they can't find. but there is a danger that the campaign is a bit too flat. it doesn't matter if your 20 points ahead, but the other thing about sir keir starmer is he's the leader of the opposition for a while, but a lot of politicians have said to me that the voters don't really get to know a leader until they've been through a general election contest. so for lots of people tuning in over the next few weeks, they won't know an awful lot about him. so the question is whether he shows some of that tonight and gives more of a sense of himself. the that tonight and gives more of a sense of himself.— that tonight and gives more of a sense of himself. the spin room behind you _ sense of himself. the spin room behind you is — sense of himself. the spin room behind you is filling _ sense of himself. the spin room behind you is filling up, - sense of himself. the spin room behind you is filling up, we - sense of himself. the spin room. behind you is filling up, we better let you go and settle in for the night. let's bring in our panel. mike, there are five of labour's top target seats in your patch in the northwest there. when you speak to people out on the doorstep, do they feel as if they know sir keir starmer? have they made a decision on the labour leader? i starmer? have they made a decision on the labour leader?— on the labour leader? i think people here in the northwest _ on the labour leader? i think people here in the northwest - _ on the labour leader? i think people here in the northwest - a _ on the labour leader? i think people here in the northwest - a lot - on the labour leader? i think people here in the northwest - a lot of- here in the northwest — a lot of people — here in the northwest — a lot of people stereotypes are keir starmer as being _ people stereotypes are keir starmer as being quite dull and boring. actually, — as being quite dull and boring. actually, a lot of people have come to realise _ actually, a lot of people have come to realise that's not necessarily a bad thing — to realise that's not necessarily a bad thing i— to realise that's not necessarily a bad thing. i think if you look at it from _ bad thing. i think if you look at it from the — bad thing. i think if you look at it from the other angle, if you see people's— from the other angle, if you see people's opinion of rishi sunak in the past — people's opinion of rishi sunak in the past 13—14 years of conservative government, people have started to lose trust— government, people have started to lose trust here in the northwest. a lot lose trust here in the northwest. a tot of— lose trust here in the northwest. a lot of people, for example, and parts _ lot of people, for example, and parts of— lot of people, for example, and parts of lancaster that were for a lon- parts of lancaster that were for a tong time — parts of lancaster that were for a long time traditional labour seats, places— long time traditional labour seats, places like — long time traditional labour seats, places like burnley didn't have a conservative mp for over 100 years — in 2019. _ conservative mp for over 100 years — in 2019, people in burnley backed boris _ in 2019, people in burnley backed borisjohnson, in large part due to things— borisjohnson, in large part due to things like — borisjohnson, in large part due to things like his personality, because they fett— things like his personality, because they felt like he was a character, they felt like he was a character, they fett— they felt like he was a character, they felt like he was a character, they felt like they understood him more _ they felt like they understood him more. now, ithink they felt like they understood him more. now, i think an awful lot of people _ more. now, i think an awful lot of people are — more. now, i think an awful lot of people are saying, "you know what, we've _ people are saying, "you know what, we've had _ people are saying, "you know what, we've had an — people are saying, "you know what, we've had an awful lot of turbulence particularly — we've had an awful lot of turbulence particularly over the last few years — particularly over the last few years. maybe somebody like keir starmer, — years. maybe somebody like keir starmer, i— years. maybe somebody like keir starmer, i don't know him that well, he's not _ starmer, idon't know him that well, he's not that— starmer, i don't know him that well, he's not that relatable, he's a london — he's not that relatable, he's a london mp, he's held quite senior 'obs london mp, he's held quite senior jobs in _ london mp, he's held quite senior jobs in his— london mp, he's held quite senior jobs in his life, i don't have much in common— jobs in his life, i don't have much in common with hope, but may be at the minute _ in common with hope, but may be at the minute boring isn't a bad thing?�* — the minute boring isn't a bad thin ." . ., i. the minute boring isn't a bad thin~." ., ., , the minute boring isn't a bad thin ." ., ., i. , ., thing." charlotte, you been down in rochester today, _ thing." charlotte, you been down in rochester today, what _ thing." charlotte, you been down in rochester today, what do _ thing." charlotte, you been down in rochester today, what do people i thing." charlotte, you been down in i rochester today, what do people want to hear tonight from this debate that you've spoken to? it’s to hear tonight from this debate that you've spoken to? it's really interesting _ that you've spoken to? it's really interesting to _ that you've spoken to? it's really interesting to chat _ that you've spoken to? it's really interesting to chat to _ that you've spoken to? it's really interesting to chat to people - that you've spoken to? it's really i interesting to chat to people around and about the southeast, because of course the southeast has long been tory territory, it's known as true blue, and after the 2019 election, after the 55 seats that went conservative — but you speak to people and that's not the view you get. i was speaking to people in rochester today and there were issues that people are worried about, things like the nhs, public services. one person i spoke to me said, "we want to pay more taxes to improve our public services." these box pops aren't scientific, but i think it gives a sense of — there is real nuance across our region at the moment, i think. the real nuance across our region at the moment, ithink.— real nuance across our region at the moment, ithink. moment, i think. the news ahead of the debate was _ moment, i think. the news ahead of the debate was all _ moment, i think. the news ahead of the debate was all about _ the debate was all about nigel farage today and his first appearance in clacton, not farfrom where charlotte is. the news, ahead of this debate, was all about nigel farage and his first appearance in clacton. the new leader of reform uk has lit a torch under this campaign, promising a revolt that has sent the conservatives into full—blown panic mode. the gloomy front pages for rishi sunak this morning were fuelled by that announcement and by those two major polls, out yesterday, which predict a historic drubbing for the tories. we don't tend to focus on single polls — not usually — but the yougov mrp poll predicts a 194—seat labour majority, with senior tories — likejeremy hunt, jacob rees—mogg, penny mordaunt — all losing their seats. perhaps no coincidince, then, faced with the farage onslaught that the conservatives were out today with a new pledge — a cap on the number of visas that will be issued each year to migrant workers. what we've seen with labour, who have voted 139 times against any and every border control measure we put forward, a complete open—door policy does not work. it does not work for local communities, it doesn't work for local authorities when they are trying to plan for public services. we are the only party with a credible plan to professionally manage migration so that it supports the british economy without putting undue pressure on local communities stop. net migration, the difference in the number of people immigrating to the uk and emigrating, decreased last year, but remains higher than at the start of this parliament. the figure to december to 2023 was 685,000 - that is a fall of approximately 10% from the ons�*s updated estimate of 764,000, for the year to december 2022. you'll probably hear rishi sunak refer to that 10% fall tonight. that said, net migration is still nearly four times higher than it was in 2019, when the conservative party said it would bring "overall numbers" down in its manifesto. nigel farage says the conservatives have betrayed the trust of the british people. we we re we were told we would get control of our borders — we were told we would get control of our borders we _ we were told we would get control of our borders. we were _ we were told we would get control of our borders. we were told the - our borders. we were told the immigration _ our borders. we were told the immigration numbers- our borders. we were told the immigration numbers would . our borders. we were told the - immigration numbers would come our borders. we were told the _ immigration numbers would come down. they have _ immigration numbers would come down. they have exploded. _ immigration numbers would come down. they have exploded. so _ immigration numbers would come down. they have exploded. so i— immigration numbers would come down. they have exploded. so i feel— they have exploded. so i feel betrayed _ they have exploded. so i feel betrayed by— they have exploded. so i feel betrayed by them. _ they have exploded. so i feel betrayed by them. millions i they have exploded. so i feel betrayed by them. millions of they have exploded. so i feel- betrayed by them. millions of voters feel betrayed by them. millions of voters feet betrayed — betrayed by them. millions of voters feet betrayed by— betrayed by them. millions of voters feel betrayed by them. _ betrayed by them. millions of voters feel betrayed by them. and - betrayed by them. millions of voters feel betrayed by them. and even - feel betrayed by them. and even though— feel betrayed by them. and even though there _ feel betrayed by them. and even though there are _ feel betrayed by them. and even though there are some _ feel betrayed by them. and even though there are some people i feel betrayed by them. and even though there are some people inj feel betrayed by them. and even - though there are some people in the conservative — though there are some people in the conservative party— though there are some people in the conservative party who _ though there are some people in the conservative party who i _ though there are some people in the conservative party who i fought - though there are some people in the conservative party who i fought with| conservative party who i fought with during _ conservative party who i fought with during brexit. — conservative party who i fought with during brexit, i'm— conservative party who i fought with during brexit, i'm afraid _ conservative party who i fought with during brexit, i'm afraid they're - during brexit, i'm afraid they're part of— during brexit, i'm afraid they're part of a — during brexit, i'm afraid they're part of a party— during brexit, i'm afraid they're part of a party who _ during brexit, i'm afraid they're part of a party who are - during brexit, i'm afraid they're part of a party who are well- during brexit, i'm afraid they'rel part of a party who are well past their— part of a party who are well past their sett— part of a party who are well past their sell by— part of a party who are well past their sell by date, _ part of a party who are well past their sell by date, the _ part of a party who are well past their sell by date, the brand - part of a party who are well past their sell by date, the brand is l their sell by date, the brand is ruined. — their sell by date, the brand is ruined. they— their sell by date, the brand is ruined, they blot _ their sell by date, the brand is ruined, they blot the - their sell by date, the brand is ruined, they blot the —— - their sell by date, the brand is ruined, they blot the —— lost . their sell by date, the brand is i ruined, they blot the —— lost the election— ruined, they blot the —— lost the election already. _ ruined, they blot the —— lost the election already. and _ ruined, they blot the —— lost the election already. and what - ruined, they blot the —— lost the election already. and what i'm l election already. and what i'm trying — election already. and what i'm trying to— election already. and what i'm trying to do— election already. and what i'm trying to do is— election already. and what i'm trying to do is to _ election already. and what i'm trying to do is to establish - election already. and what i'm trying to do is to establish a l election already. and what i'm i trying to do is to establish a voice of opposition _ trying to do is to establish a voice of opposition to _ trying to do is to establish a voice of opposition to it _ trying to do is to establish a voice of opposition to it will— trying to do is to establish a voice of opposition to it will be - trying to do is to establish a voice of opposition to it will be a - trying to do is to establish a voice | of opposition to it will be a labour government that _ of opposition to it will be a labour government that otherwise - of opposition to it will be a labour government that otherwise might| of opposition to it will be a labour. government that otherwise might be out of— government that otherwise might be out of controt — charlotte, some will say