how much of a threat is nigel farage to the conservatives and labour? in to the conservatives and labour? in the last couple of minutes the conservatives have announced an annual cap on visas to try to bring net migration down. it's a promise they've made and broken before. welcome to newnsight, live each weeknight with interviews and insight. let me introduce our political panel tonight: dehenna davison was the conservative mp for bishop auckland. elected in 2019, she was the constituency�*s first—ever tory mp. it was one of those red wall seats, wasn't it, that turned blue, back when borisjohnson was the prime minster. and mhairi black is here. she was an snp mp. she was their deputy leader at westminster. she still holds the record for the youngest mp ever to be elected. you were 20. so long ago! that was back in 2015. both women are standing down. and nick's here as is polling guru professor sirjohn curtice. let's start by showing you the times nigel farage has previously stood for parliament. music: keep on running — the spencer davis group. but it didn't seem possible to me that the conservative party would so actively betray all that this country stands for. # keep on running. # keep on hiding... farage, nigel, paul. uk independence party, 2,347. cheering. # keep on running... nigel paul farage, ukip. 16,026. # i'm gonna be your man... so, is the stee tories�*s worst nightmare, him standing? fix, so, is the stee tories's worst nightmare, him standing? a lot of suuea nightmare, him standing? a lot of squeaky bum _ nightmare, him standing? a lot of squeaky bum is — nightmare, him standing? a lot of squeaky bum is in _ nightmare, him standing? a lot of squeaky bum is in tory _ nightmare, him standing? a lot of squeaky bum is in tory head - nightmare, him standing? a lot of| squeaky bum is in tory head office. i remember myself in 2019 when they announced the cabinet against me and i thought my goodness, is that it? but when we step back and regroup, i don't know. ultimately a rise in support for reform probably isn't going to be great for the conservative party, especially if they take the seats that are looking close. it is likely that reform will take votes from the conservatives but labour too. interesting to see how it plays out. but labour too. interesting to see how it plays out-— but labour too. interesting to see how it plays out. what do you think about the fact _ how it plays out. what do you think about the fact that _ how it plays out. what do you think about the fact that he's _ how it plays out. what do you think about the fact that he's standing i about the fact that he's standing and has become the leader of reform? i mean, i don't think it's that much of a shock— i mean, i don't think it's that much of a shock for— i mean, i don't think it's that much of a shock for anybody. it�*s i mean, i don't think it's that much of a shock for anybody.— of a shock for anybody. it's the o- osite of a shock for anybody. it's the opposite of— of a shock for anybody. it's the opposite of what _ of a shock for anybody. it's the opposite of what he _ of a shock for anybody. it's the opposite of what he said. - of a shock for anybody. it's the i opposite of what he said. exactly, he's already _ opposite of what he said. exactly, he's already passing _ opposite of what he said. exactly, he's already passing the - opposite of what he said. exactly, he's already passing the test - opposite of what he said. exactly, he's already passing the test for l he's already passing the test for being _ he's already passing the test for being a — he's already passing the test for being a politician. but i think it is dangerous on the whole because one of— is dangerous on the whole because one of my— is dangerous on the whole because one of my concerns with british politics — one of my concerns with british politics in— one of my concerns with british politics in general is that we have gone _ politics in general is that we have gone to— politics in general is that we have gone to the right so much over the last ten, _ gone to the right so much over the last ten, 15— gone to the right so much over the last ten, 15 years and i don't see that getting any better with nigel farage _ that getting any better with nigel farage nipping at the heels of the tories _ farage nipping at the heels of the tories and — farage nipping at the heels of the tories and labour.— farage nipping at the heels of the tories and labour. what do you think is his strategy. _ tories and labour. what do you think is his strategy, dehenna? _ tories and labour. what do you think is his strategy, dehenna? he - tories and labour. what do you think is his strategy, dehenna? he clearly| is his strategy, dehenna? he clearly said today in — is his strategy, dehenna? he clearly said today in his _ is his strategy, dehenna? he clearly said today in his words _ is his strategy, dehenna? he clearly said today in his words that - is his strategy, dehenna? he clearly said today in his words that labour l said today in his words that labour have already won. clearly he doesn't want or think he's going to win, he doesn't think that reform are going to form an administration so it's one of two things. he either wants a small number of mps to be elected to be noisy in westminster... to be noisy against labour on migration matters, i assume but also, as you say, to try and push the conservative party to take a slightly tougher view on migration. but he wasn'tjust speaking about migration, he talked about taxation as well and growth. interesting, very conservative territory that he seemed to be nipping on. interesting oint, seemed to be nipping on. interesting point. nick. — seemed to be nipping on. interesting point, nick, because— seemed to be nipping on. interesting point, nick, because a _ seemed to be nipping on. interesting point, nick, because a number- seemed to be nipping on. interesting point, nick, because a number of- point, nick, because a number of conservative mps believe that his instincts are very conservative, more perhaps than rishi sunak and borisjohnson? more perhaps than rishi sunak and boris johnson?— boris johnson? those like andrea jen ns, boris johnson? those like andrea jenkyns. who _ boris johnson? those like andrea jenkyns. who say _ boris johnson? those like andrea jenkyns, who say that _ boris johnson? those like andrea jenkyns, who say that they - boris johnson? those like andrea l jenkyns, who say that they believe jenkyns, who say that they believe with -- agree _ jenkyns, who say that they believe with —— agree with— jenkyns, who say that they believe with —— agree with a _ jenkyns, who say that they believe with —— agree with a lot _ jenkyns, who say that they believe with —— agree with a lot of- jenkyns, who say that they believe with —— agree with a lot of what i with —— agree with a lot of what nigel— with —— agree with a lot of what nigel farage _ with —— agree with a lot of what nigel farage says. _ with —— agree with a lot of what nigel farage says. his - with —— agree with a lot of what nigel farage says. his strategy| with —— agree with a lot of what i nigel farage says. his strategy is to smash — nigel farage says. his strategy is to smash the _ nigel farage says. his strategy is to smash the conservative - nigel farage says. his strategy is to smash the conservative party. nigel farage says. his strategy is i to smash the conservative party and then to _ to smash the conservative party and then to become _ to smash the conservative party and then to become the _ to smash the conservative party and then to become the leader- to smash the conservative party and then to become the leader of- then to become the leader of conservatism, _ then to become the leader of conservatism, either- then to become the leader of conservatism, eitheras- then to become the leader of. conservatism, either as leader then to become the leader of- conservatism, either as leader of reform _ conservatism, either as leader of reform or— conservatism, either as leader of reform or maybe _ conservatism, either as leader of reform or maybe there's - conservatism, either as leader of reform or maybe there's a - conservatism, either as leader of. reform or maybe there's a reverse takeover _ reform or maybe there's a reverse takeover of — reform or maybe there's a reverse takeover of the _ reform or maybe there's a reverse takeover of the conservative - reform or maybe there's a reverse | takeover of the conservative party. we are _ takeover of the conservative party. we are giving — takeover of the conservative party. we are giving all— takeover of the conservative party. we are giving all of— takeover of the conservative party. we are giving all of those - takeover of the conservative party. | we are giving all of those examples of where _ we are giving all of those examples of where nigel— we are giving all of those examples of where nigel farage _ we are giving all of those examples of where nigel farage failed - we are giving all of those examples of where nigel farage failed to i we are giving all of those examples of where nigel farage failed to be l of where nigel farage failed to be elected _ of where nigel farage failed to be elected to— of where nigel farage failed to be elected to westminster— of where nigel farage failed to be elected to westminster on - of where nigel farage failed to be elected to westminster on the i of where nigel farage failed to bel elected to westminster on the first past the _ elected to westminster on the first past the post— elected to westminster on the first past the post system _ elected to westminster on the first past the post system but _ elected to westminster on the first past the post system but let's i elected to westminster on the first past the post system but let's notl past the post system but let's not forget _ past the post system but let's not forget that — past the post system but let's not forget that nigel— past the post system but let's not forget that nigel farage _ past the post system but let's not forget that nigel farage leading l past the post system but let's not . forget that nigel farage leading two different— forget that nigel farage leading two different parties— forget that nigel farage leading two different parties won _ forget that nigel farage leading two different parties won two _ forget that nigel farage leading two different parties won two different l different parties won two different nationai— different parties won two different national elections. _ different parties won two different national elections. the _ different parties won two different national elections. the 2014 i national elections. the 2014 european _ national elections. the 2014 european parliamentary- national elections. the 2014 i european parliamentary elections national elections. the 2014 - european parliamentary elections and the 2019— european parliamentary elections and the 2019 european parliamentary- the 2019 european parliamentary elections — the 2019 european parliamentary elections. the _ the 2019 european parliamentary elections. the first _ the 2019 european parliamentary elections. the first one _ the 2019 european parliamentary elections. the first one perhaps. the 2019 european parliamentary. elections. the first one perhaps was a factor— elections. the first one perhaps was a factor in _ elections. the first one perhaps was a factor in delivering _ elections. the first one perhaps was a factor in delivering brexit, - elections. the first one perhaps was a factor in delivering brexit, the i a factor in delivering brexit, the second — a factor in delivering brexit, the second one _ a factor in delivering brexit, the second one was _ a factor in delivering brexit, the second one was a _ a factor in delivering brexit, the second one was a factor - a factor in delivering brexit, the second one was a factor in i second one was a factor in delivering _ second one was a factor in delivering the _ second one was a factor in delivering the way - second one was a factor in delivering the way that i second one was a factor in i delivering the way that theresa second one was a factor in - delivering the way that theresa may had to _ delivering the way that theresa may had to stand — delivering the way that theresa may had to stand down. _ delivering the way that theresa may had to stand down. how— delivering the way that theresa may had to stand down. how did - delivering the way that theresa may had to stand down. how did he i had to stand down. how did he windows— had to stand down. how did he windows elections? _ had to stand down. how did he windows elections? because i had to stand down. how did he - windows elections? because european parliamentary— windows elections? because european parliamentary elections _ windows elections? because european parliamentary elections are _ windows elections? because european parliamentary elections are on - parliamentary elections are on proportionat— parliamentary elections are on proportional representation. . parliamentary elections are on proportional representation. a parliamentary elections are on i proportional representation. a year a-o proportional representation. a year ago the _ proportional representation. a year ago the reform _ proportional representation. a year ago the reform strategy _ proportional representation. a year ago the reform strategy was - proportional representation. a year ago the reform strategy was to i ago the reform strategy was to reform — ago the reform strategy was to reform the _ ago the reform strategy was to reform the conservative - ago the reform strategy was to reform the conservative party i ago the reform strategy was to i reform the conservative party and make _ reform the conservative party and make them — reform the conservative party and make them embrace _ reform the conservative party and make them embrace pr. - reform the conservative party and make them embrace pr. now- reform the conservative party and make them embrace pr. now the| make them embrace pr. now the strategy— make them embrace pr. now the strategy seems _ make them embrace pr. now the strategy seems to _ make them embrace pr. now the strategy seems to be _ make them embrace pr. now the strategy seems to be to - make them embrace pr. now the strategy seems to be to smash i make them embrace pr. now the i strategy seems to be to smash them and to— strategy seems to be to smash them and to he _ strategy seems to be to smash them and to he a _ strategy seems to be to smash them and to be a presence _ strategy seems to be to smash them and to be a presence in— strategy seems to be to smash them and to be a presence in westminsteri and to be a presence in westminster where _ and to be a presence in westminster where nigel— and to be a presence in westminster where nigel farage _ and to be a presence in westminster where nigel farage can— and to be a presence in westminster where nigel farage can be _ and to be a presence in westminster where nigel farage can be the - and to be a presence in westminsterl where nigel farage can be the leader of conservatism. _ where nigel farage can be the leader of conservatism. this _ where nigel farage can be the leader of conservatism.— of conservatism. as you'd expect, as newsni . ht of conservatism. as you'd expect, as newsnight viewers, _ of conservatism. as you'd expect, as newsnight viewers, we _ of conservatism. as you'd expect, as newsnight viewers, we did _ of conservatism. as you'd expect, as newsnight viewers, we did ask i of conservatism. as you'd expect, as newsnight viewers, we did ask them i newsnight viewers, we did ask them nigel farage for an interview and he declined. here he was this afternoon talking to bbc news about why he had changed his mind and was standing after all, changed his mind and was standing afterall, his changed his mind and was standing after all, his eighth attempt at becoming an mp. you were a candidate. you call it a pressure| group, call it a party, you were a candidate to be an mp on a ballot paper. _ yeah, 0k, mate. how many times have you stood? i'm just asking. what do you know about it? how many times have you stood? i'm asking you the i question, mr farage. there you go. i mean, the challenge here is, people will say, look, - you've tried it before _ and you didn't manage to do it. ask something intelligent and we'll carry on with the conversation, shall we? i'm interested in why people should trust you when seven times - previously you didn't manage to do that _ pass. no, no, no. i think you're very, very boring and i think your viewers will find you very boring and you ought to do rather better as the state broadcaster, in my view. i'd just like to say that ben isn't very boring! i i'd just like to say that ben isn't very boring!— very boring! i don't think this is very boring! i don't think this is very boring. — very boring! i don't think this is very boring, either. _ very boring! i don't think this is very boring, either. but- very boring! i don't think this is very boring, either. but what . very boring! i don't think this is| very boring, either. but what do very boring! i don't think this is i very boring, either. but what do you make of his... _ very boring, either. but what do you make of his... his _ very boring, either. but what do you make of his... his bumptious i very boring, either. but what do you make of his... his bumptious nest, l make of his... his bumptious nest, shall i put it like that. i make of his. .. his bumptious nest, shall i put it like that.— shall i put it like that. i think his arrogance _ shall i put it like that. i think his arrogance of— shall i put it like that. i think his arrogance of his - shall i put it like that. i think his arrogance of his personal shall i put it like that. i think. his arrogance of his persona is shall i put it like that. i think i his arrogance of his persona is very much _ his arrogance of his persona is very much to— his arrogance of his persona is very much to almost try and entertain as opposed _ much to almost try and entertain as opposed to — much to almost try and entertain as opposed to be taken seriously. but i think he's_ opposed to be taken seriously. but i think he's looked at his good friend over in— think he's looked at his good friend over in america, donald trump, and has thought— over in america, donald trump, and has thought that it worked for him so he's _ has thought that it worked for him so he's trying to manifest it in this election and we hope people don't _ this election and we hope people don't fall— this election and we hope people don't fall for it. we this election and we hope people don't fall for it.— don't fall for it. we can see on screen any _ don't fall for it. we can see on screen any moment _ don't fall for it. we can see on screen any moment a - don't fall for it. we can see on screen any moment a full- don't fall for it. we can see on screen any moment a full listl don't fall for it. we can see on. screen any moment a full list of don't fall for it. we can see on i screen any moment a full list of the announced candidates standing in the clacton constituency. nominations closing on friday so the full list will be there by friday on the bbc website. trusted polling guru, sirjohn curtice is with us. what could nigel farage standing mean for the conservatives in this election? it mean for the conservatives in this election? , ., , , , election? it is undoubtedly bad news for the conservatives. _ election? it is undoubtedly bad news for the conservatives. one _ election? it is undoubtedly bad news for the conservatives. one of- election? it is undoubtedly bad news for the conservatives. one of the i for the conservatives. one of the unspoken things that hasn't happened in this election is arguably pretty crucial, support for reform before today was managing to hold up. they were running at 11%, pretty much where they started the campaign and tjy where they started the campaign and by the way it means they are in a stronger position than the brexit party were at this stage in the 2019 campaign before of course nigel farage summarily withdrew all of his candidates from the seats that the conservatives were trying to defend. it is certainly no doubt that the people who are switching to reform our 2019 conservative voters. you could ask yourself, would some of these people vote for labour if we four weren't on the ballot paper? one answer to that was provided by the english local elections where reform only fought one in six of the wards but what you discovered in those wards where they stood is that it was frankly the conservative party that suffered from the presence of reform on the ballot paper and neither labour nor the liberal democrats. the evidence we've got is that basically these voters are coming from having voted conservative in 2019 and given that the closest we've got in terms of an experiment when reform are on the ballot paper, it is people who would otherwise go to the conservative party that reform are picking up as well. ., party that reform are picking up as well. . ' :: ,': :: , ., , well. next, at 10:30pm the tories announced — well. next, at 10:30pm the tories announced their _ latest migration policy. they say they are promising an annual cap in visas, which they say will bring down net migration. their response, it would seem. it is down net migration. their response, it would seem-— it would seem. it is an annual cap but finally — it would seem. it is an annual cap but finally enough _ it would seem. it is an annual cap but finally enough they _ it would seem. it is an annual cap but finally enough they are i it would seem. it is an annual cap but finally enough they are giving | it would seem. it is an annual cap. but finally enough they are giving a specific— but finally enough they are giving a specific figure _ but finally enough they are giving a specific figure i_ but finally enough they are giving a specific figure. i wonder— but finally enough they are giving a specific figure. i wonder if- but finally enough they are giving a specific figure. i wonder if that's i specific figure. i wonder if that's anything — specific figure. i wonder if that's anything to— specific figure. i wonder if that's anything to do _ specific figure. i wonder if that's anything to do with _ specific figure. i wonder if that's anything to do with the - specific figure. i wonder if that's anything to do with the fact i specific figure. i wonder if that's anything to do with the fact thatj anything to do with the fact that the david — anything to do with the fact that the david cameron— anything to do with the fact that the david cameron went - anything to do with the fact that the david cameron went into- anything to do with the fact that| the david cameron went into the anything to do with the fact that i the david cameron went into the 2010 election— the david cameron went into the 2010 election talking — the david cameron went into the 2010 election talking about _ the david cameron went into the 2010 election talking about bringing - election talking about bringing immigration _ election talking about bringing immigration down _ election talking about bringing immigration down to - election talking about bringing immigration down to 2010 i election talking about bringing l immigration down to 2010 which election talking about bringing i immigration down to 2010 which we couldn't— immigration down to 2010 which we couldn't control— immigration down to 2010 which we couldn't control because _ immigration down to 2010 which we couldn't control because we - immigration down to 2010 which we couldn't control because we were i immigration down to 2010 which we couldn't control because we were inj couldn't control because we were in the eu _ couldn't control because we were in the eu and — couldn't control because we were in the eu and it — couldn't control because we were in the eu and it came _ couldn't control because we were in the eu and it came back— couldn't control because we were in the eu and it came back to- couldn't control because we were in the eu and it came back to bite i couldn't control because we were ml the eu and it came back to bite him. they are _ the eu and it came back to bite him. they are talking _ the eu and it came back to bite him. they are talking about _ the eu and it came back to bite him. they are talking about a _ the eu and it came back to bite him. they are talking about a mechanism| they are talking about a mechanism saying _ they are talking about a mechanism saying they— they are talking about a mechanism saying they will _ they are talking about a mechanism saying they will ask— they are talking about a mechanism saying they will ask the _ they are talking about a mechanism saying they will ask the expert i saying they will ask the expert migration _ saying they will ask the expert migration advisory— saying they will ask the expert migration advisory committee | saying they will ask the expert i migration advisory committee to provide _ migration advisory committee to provide a — migration advisory committee to provide a recommendation - migration advisory committee to provide a recommendation for i migration advisory committee to i provide a recommendation for the level— provide a recommendation for the level of— provide a recommendation for the level of the — provide a recommendation for the level of the annual— provide a recommendation for the level of the annual cap _ provide a recommendation for the level of the annual cap and - provide a recommendation for the level of the annual cap and they . level of the annual cap and they will put — level of the annual cap and they will put that _ level of the annual cap and they will put that to _ level of the annual cap and they will put that to parliament. i level of the annual cap and they| will put that to parliament. they are going — will put that to parliament. they are going to— will put that to parliament. they are going to set— will put that to parliament. they are going to set a _ will put that to parliament. they are going to set a framework- will put that to parliament. theyl are going to set a framework and will ask— are going to set a framework and will ask the — are going to set a framework and will ask the committee _ are going to set a framework and will ask the committee to - are going to set a framework and will ask the committee to a i are going to set a framework and will ask the committee to a lookl are going to set a framework and i will ask the committee to a look at three _ will ask the committee to a look at three things. — will ask the committee to a look at three things. to— will ask the committee to a look at three things, to get— will ask the committee to a look at three things, to get migration i will ask the committee to a look at l three things, to get migration down to sustainable — three things, to get migration down to sustainable levels, _ three things, to get migration down to sustainable levels, and _ three things, to get migration down to sustainable levels, and for- three things, to get migration down to sustainable levels, and for the i to sustainable levels, and for the levels _ to sustainable levels, and for the levels to — to sustainable levels, and for the levels to fault _ to sustainable levels, and for the levels to fault year— to sustainable levels, and for the levels to fault year on _ to sustainable levels, and for the levels to fault year on year- to sustainable levels, and for the levels to fault year on year in - to sustainable levels, and for the levels to fault year on year in thei levels to fault year on year in the next _ levels to fault year on year in the next parliament— levels to fault year on year in the next parliament and _ levels to fault year on year in the next parliament and looking - levels to fault year on year in the next parliament and looking at l levels to fault year on year in the i next parliament and looking at the cost and _ next parliament and looking at the cost and benefits _ next parliament and looking at the cost and benefits of— next parliament and looking at the cost and benefits of migration - next parliament and looking at the cost and benefits of migration —— i cost and benefits of migration —— for the _ cost and benefits of migration —— for the levels _ cost and benefits of migration —— for the levels to _ cost and benefits of migration —— for the levels to fall _ cost and benefits of migration —— i for the levels to fall year—on—year. a message — for the levels to fall year—on—year. a message to— for the levels to fall year—on—year. a message to the _ for the levels to fall year—on—year. a message to the reform - for the levels to fall year—on—year. a message to the reform voters, i for the levels to fall year—on—year. . a message to the reform voters, but also to— a message to the reform voters, but also to the _ a message to the reform voters, but also to the labour— a message to the reform voters, but also to the labour party _ a message to the reform voters, but also to the labour party because - a message to the reform voters, but also to the labour party because if. also to the labour party because if that caper— also to the labour party because if that caper -- — also to the labour party because if that caper —— because _ also to the labour party because if that caper —— because yvette - also to the labour party because if. that caper —— because yvette cooper said that _ that caper —— because yvette cooper said that after — that caper —— because yvette cooper said that after keir— that caper —— because yvette cooper said that after keir starmer - that caper —— because yvette cooper said that after keir starmer said - that caper —— because yvette cooper said that after keir starmer said he i said that after keir starmer said he would _ said that after keir starmer said he would bring — said that after keir starmer said he would bring down _ said that after keir starmer said he would bring down migration- said that after keir starmer said he would bring down migration but- said that after keir starmer said he| would bring down migration but not putting _ would bring down migration but not putting a _ would bring down migration but not putting a number— would bring down migration but not putting a number on— would bring down migration but not putting a number on it, _ would bring down migration but not putting a number on it, not - would bring down migration but noti putting a number on it, not wanting to be _ putting a number on it, not wanting to be specific. — putting a number on it, not wanting to be specific, the _ putting a number on it, not wanting to be specific, the conservatives . to be specific, the conservatives are wanting _ to be specific, the conservatives are wanting to— to be specific, the conservatives are wanting to be _ to be specific, the conservatives are wanting to be more - to be specific, the conservatives are wanting to be more specifici to be specific, the conservatives i are wanting to be more specific but not giving — are wanting to be more specific but not giving a — are wanting to be more specific but not giving a number. _ are wanting to be more specific but not giving a number. we— are wanting to be more specific but not giving a number.— are wanting to be more specific but not giving a number. we had the tory -a not giving a number. we had the tory party chairman _ not giving a number. we had the tory party chairman the — not giving a number. we had the tory party chairman the day _ not giving a number. we had the tory party chairman the day after- not giving a number. we had the tory party chairman the day after the - party chairman the day after the election was called and i asked richard holden about the conservatives's regular promises to cut migration. 2010, mr cameron promised in the election campaign he'd bring migration down to tens of thousands per year. did that happen? well, it's quite clear that's not what's happened. right. 2015 conservative manifesto, the pledge was reiterated. did that happen? well, look, we've also seen huge, big changes... did that happen? no, it clearly didn't. right, 2017. theresa may reiterated the "tens of thousands" pledge. did that happen? no. 2019 conservative manifesto... we can go through all of these and it's quite clear that we haven't achieved... but it's really important because you've made this promise in every single election and in fact you've delivered the complete opposite. because of policies you've implemented the numbers have gone up and up and up. so i ask again, why should voters believe you this time? i think in some areas... i mean, one of the big things we saw at the start of some of those periods, we obviously were still in the european union in 2015, for example, when there was no controls on net migration. so, dehenna, we have another promise from the conservatives to bring down net migration. we have seen it falling a little bit from 2022 when it was a record 750,000 or so. should voters believe your party this time? i should voters believe your party this time? ., ~' should voters believe your party this time? ., ~ ., should voters believe your party this time? ., ~' ., ~' this time? i would like to think that peeple — this time? i would like to think that people would _ this time? i would like to think that people would and - this time? i would like to think that people would and could i this time? i would like to think. that people would and could but you've highlighted the problem, so many bold promises on migration going back to 2010 and what people are seeing is the number is climbing, pressure on their local resources. ultimately we need a plan. the point that many in the conservative party make is that at least we are coming up with a plan and we have implement its legislation to try and tackle this. all we heard from the labour party is mainly rhetoric. that's the argument, we have a plan. labour would argue _ argument, we have a plan. labour would argue that _ argument, we have a plan. labour would argue that they _ argument, we have a plan. labour would argue that they have - argument, we have a plan. labour would argue that they have a - argument, we have a plan. labour| would argue that they have a plan, you can say you don't like it. this is how politics — you can say you don't like it. this is how politics works. _ you can say you don't like it. “in 3 is how politics works. 0ne party is how politics works. one party says we have a plan and the other party says the same. all our voters want is to see some action that will bring some results. is want is to see some action that will bring some results.— bring some results. is that true, does scotland _ bring some results. is that true, does scotland want _ bring some results. is that true, does scotland want fewer - bring some results. is that true, - does scotland want fewer immigrants? no, i would disagree entirely. this is the _ no, i would disagree entirely. this is the perfect example of where scotland's best interests are sometimes swept aside, especially when _ sometimes swept aside, especially when it— sometimes swept aside, especially when it comes to the uk elections because _ when it comes to the uk elections because in— when it comes to the uk elections because in scotland not only do we think— because in scotland not only do we think culturally that our communities are enriched by diversity— communities are enriched by diversity but actually our economy needs— diversity but actually our economy needs more people. we need immigrants to come and fund social care and _ immigrants to come and fund social care and the nhs and to better the economy— care and the nhs and to better the economy in general. this is where i would _ economy in general. this is where i would say— economy in general. this is where i would say that in westminster, both major— would say that in westminster, both major parties, whoever ends up in government, are failing to see the scottish— government, are failing to see the scottish picture and act on it. 88% of the _ scottish picture and act on it. 88% of the uk — scottish picture and act on it. 88% of the uk population lives in england, so what are the parties focusing — england, so what are the parties focusing on?— focusing on? england and both arties focusing on? england and both parties say _ focusing on? england and both parties say they will _ focusing on? england and both parties say they will bring - parties say they will bring migration— parties say they will bring migration down. - parties say they will bring migration down. if- parties say they will bring j migration down. if labour parties say they will bring - migration down. if labour were parties say they will bring _ migration down. if labour were here they would _ migration down. if labour were here they would say— migration down. if labour were here they would say that _ migration down. if labour were here they would say that they _ migration down. if labour were here they would say that they have - migration down. if labour were here they would say that they have a - migration down. if labour were herej they would say that they have a plan and that _ they would say that they have a plan and that the — they would say that they have a plan and that the rwanda _ they would say that they have a plan and that the rwanda scheme - they would say that they have a plan and that the rwanda scheme is- they would say that they have a plan and that the rwanda scheme is a - and that the rwanda scheme is a gimmick— and that the rwanda scheme is a gimmick and _ and that the rwanda scheme is a gimmick and that _ and that the rwanda scheme is a gimmick and that they— and that the rwanda scheme is a gimmick and that they are - and that the rwanda scheme is a . gimmick and that they are planning to go— gimmick and that they are planning to go upstream _ gimmick and that they are planning to go upstream and _ gimmick and that they are planning to go upstream and use _ gimmick and that they are planning . to go upstream and use counterterror legislation— to go upstream and use counterterror legislation to _ to go upstream and use counterterror legislation to go — to go upstream and use counterterror legislation to go after _ to go upstream and use counterterror legislation to go after people - legislation to go after people smugglers _ legislation to go after people smugglers-— legislation to go after people smu: clers. . ., ~' ., ., smugglers. lets talk more about the conservative — smugglers. lets talk more about the conservative announcement - smugglers. lets talk more about the conservative announcement made i smugglers. lets talk more about the i conservative announcement made this morning, which affects certainly holyrood and the public in scotland. it came from kemi badenoch, the women and equalities minister, who said that if the conservatives win the election they would rewrite the equality act to make it clear that sex means biological sex which would give confidence, they say, two hospitals and domestic refugees who provide single sex spaces to be able to turn away trans women without the fear of being sued. it is quite clear the detentions are the law are being misinterpreted just because of changes, you know, social changes, and what we are trying to do is reemphasise that sex in the law means biological sex. it always has done, but there has been a lot of misinterpretation and we are adding that clarification so the law is clearer. asa as a young conservative woman do you welcome what kemi badenoch was say something i welcome what kemi badenoch was say somethin: ., �* ., welcome what kemi badenoch was say somethina ., �* ., ., ~ something i don't at all. i think regrettably. — something i don't at all. i think regrettably, the _ something i don't at all. i think regrettably, the debate - something i don't at all. i think regrettably, the debate roundl something i don't at all. i think- regrettably, the debate round trans issues seems to be used as political football for this mythical culture what the conservative party seems to be fighting, i don't know why we are fighting it. i don't know who we are fighting it. i don't know who we are fighting specifically and in an election where most people's minds are on cost of living, the pound in their pocket, the state of public services i don't know why this is something we need to be focusing on, what i consider to the proudest achieve omit the conservatives being in office, same—sex marriage think for me was a real turning point, it cemented my place in the conservative party, because it showed where a party of tolerance, a much more modern party and a party that isn't actual frayed to do that might frustrate its own base but because it's the right thing to do, the rhetoric round notjust trans issues but lgbt issues more broadly issues but lgbt issues more broadly is so ticksic, there is so much heat in the debate it is dangerous. this in the debate it is dangerous. as part of this kemi bad knock sending o a message to the snp that gender recognition would be a reserve matter sow the westminster government would take charge, of that kind of area so the snp or any other party could not bring in anything like the gender recognition reform bill which would have made self id. �* . .,, reform bill which would have made self ld-_ that - reform bill which would have made self id._ that was l self id. again, it was... that was under the — self id. again, it was... that was under the scotland _ self id. again, it was... that was under the scotland act. - self id. again, it was... that was under the scotland act. but - self id. again, it was... that was under the scotland act. but also| self id. again, it was... that was l under the scotland act. but also it is via a lot — under the scotland act. but also it is via a lot of— under the scotland act. but also it is via a lot of the _ under the scotland act. but also it is via a lot of the internal - under the scotland act. but also it is via a lot of the internal market | is via a lot of the internal market act as— is via a lot of the internal market act as well— is via a lot of the internal market act as well as giving think free come — act as well as giving think free come to— act as well as giving think free come to start tee tersing with things— come to start tee tersing with things which previously it would have _ things which previously it would have been unthinkable to think that westminster would do it so this is rising _ westminster would do it so this is rising over— westminster would do it so this is rising over devolution once again, but even — rising over devolution once again, but even on — rising over devolution once again, but even on the actual subject matter. — but even on the actual subject matter, itself, not only is that desperate thing to in the hope of claw back— desperate thing to in the hope of claw back vote, even listening to the interview i don't think she knows — the interview i don't think she knows how this is going to work in practise, — knows how this is going to work in practise, the reality is it is not going — practise, the reality is it is not going to — practise, the reality is it is not going to work in practise, i don't but it— going to work in practise, i don't put it past the recommends of possibility we are going to see things— possibility we are going to see things like calling for the death penalty— things like calling for the death penalty to come back and other, you know— penalty to come back and other, you know absurd — penalty to come back and other, you know absurd ideas.— know absurd ideas. there is a etition know absurd ideas. there is a petition with _ know absurd ideas. there is a petition with over _ know absurd ideas. there is a petition with over 100,000 i know absurd ideas. there is a - petition with over 100,000 names on it and there are including labour mps, it and there are including labour mp5, for example, female labour mps who have wanted this clarification about sex based rights, to give more confidence, to come to stick refuge, hospital wards, etc. i get confidence, to come to stick refuge, hospitalwards, etc.— hospitalwards, etc. i get troubled with this point _ hospitalwards, etc. i get troubled with this point because _ hospitalwards, etc. i get troubled with this point because in - hospitalwards, etc. i get troubled with this point because in actual i with this point because in actual fact if— with this point because in actual fact if you — with this point because in actual fact if you look at any parliamentary report going into this going _ parliamentary report going into this going back as far as 10, 15 years, it, going back as far as 10, 15 years, it. women's— going back as far as 10, 15 years, it, women's refuges it is rape crisis, — it, women's refuges it is rape crisis, it— it, women's refuges it is rape crisis, it is— it, women's refuges it is rape crisis, it is women's aid who have been _ crisis, it is women's aid who have been saving — crisis, it is women's aid who have been saying we have been dealing with this _ been saying we have been dealing with this for years if anything the equality— with this for years if anything the equality act was catching up with us. . , , , . ., us. the argument is it is becoming harder for them to _ us. the argument is it is becoming harder for them to deal with - us. the argument is it is becoming harder for them to deal with it - us. the argument is it is becoming harder for them to deal with it and j harder for them to deal with it and they might be being sued. i harder for them to deal with it and they might be being sued.- they might be being sued. i don't think how that _ they might be being sued. i don't think how that is _ they might be being sued. i don't think how that is the _ they might be being sued. i don't think how that is the reality. - they might be being sued. i don't think how that is the reality. letl think how that is the reality. let us brina think how that is the reality. let us bring in _ think how that is the reality. let us bring injohn curtice, where is? issue when it comes to trans rights or gender identity where is this in terms of the priorities of voters john curtice. if terms of the priorities of voters john curtice-— terms of the priorities of voters john curtice. , ., ., ~ ., ., john curtice. if you take the narrow issue of trans _ john curtice. if you take the narrow issue of trans view, _ john curtice. if you take the narrow issue of trans view, there - john curtice. if you take the narrow issue of trans view, there are - issue of trans view, there are people with strong views but the vast bulk of the british public is in the middle, though that said what is clear that attitudes towards gender recognition have become less friendly, during the course of the debate over the last few year, so public opinion has been swayed away from easing the rules, but the truth is, what this is more broadly about is, what this is more broadly about is true about the immigration announcement this evening, the conservative party is trying very, very hard to reconnect with those people who voted for brexit, who for the most part also tend to be conservative on the issue of immigration, tend to be conservative on the issue of trans yenneder on theissues on the issue of trans yenneder on the issues of diversity which they have been talking about these days they are trying very hard in this campaign to reconnect with that base, through all these promises that as it were appeal to their values, the problem is, however, is the end of the day, the thing, the cloud that is hanging over the conservative party is that so many voters are unhappy with one boris johnson and partygate and two liz truss and her handling of the economy, that as a result it is difficult for the conservative party even to begin to regain the support of those who are relatively close to them on some of the issues, let alone anybody else.— them on some of the issues, let alone anybody else. right. and it is interestin: alone anybody else. right. and it is interesting one _ alone anybody else. right. and it is interesting one tory _ alone anybody else. right. and it is interesting one tory mp _ interesting one tory mp off—the—record who is standing down said to me, i heard labour on the radio this morning saying you are safe with us, and he said i heard the tories on the radio this morning say we know what a woman is. and, this person was disappointed in that. it this person was disappointed in that. . this person was disappointed in that. , ., ., ., that. it is uncomfortable, i have a one friend — that. it is uncomfortable, i have a one friend today _ that. it is uncomfortable, i have a one friend today i _ that. it is uncomfortable, i have a one friend today i am _ that. it is uncomfortable, i have a one friend today i am sure - that. it is uncomfortable, i have a one friend today i am sure there l that. it is uncomfortable, i have a i one friend today i am sure there are more example who has left the conservative party today. this a conservative party today. as a result of this _ conservative party today. as a result of this yes. _ conservative party today. as a result of this yes. we - conservative party today. as a result of this yes. we have i conservative party today. as a result of this yes. we have to | conservative party today. as a - result of this yes. we have to think about our longer— result of this yes. we have to think about our longer term _ result of this yes. we have to think about our longer term future - result of this yes. we have to think about our longer term future as - about our longer term future as party i am so concerned about how we are treating these sort of issue, issues that matter to our generation, and so those younger to us the gen z kids who go what are they talking about, they don't speak for us at all. 123450 it they talking about, they don't speak for us at all. 12345_ for us at all. 123450 it was interesting _ for us at all. 123450 it was interesting that _ for us at all. 123450 it was interesting that the - for us at all. 123450 it was i interesting that the interview for us at all. 123450 it was - interesting that the interview on the today— interesting that the interview on the today programme _ interesting that the interview on the today programme was - interesting that the interview on the today programme was after| interesting that the interview on i the today programme was after an article _ the today programme was after an article where — the today programme was after an article where she _ the today programme was after an article where she spelled - the today programme was after an article where she spelled this- the today programme was after an article where she spelled this out i article where she spelled this out in the _ article where she spelled this out in the times— article where she spelled this out in the times and _ article where she spelled this out in the times and you _ article where she spelled this out in the times and you got - article where she spelled this out in the times and you got the - article where she spelled this out i in the times and you got the feeling that some _ in the times and you got the feeling that some thought _ in the times and you got the feeling that some thought that _ in the times and you got the feeling that some thought that is _ in the times and you got the feeling j that some thought that is contested but that— that some thought that is contested but that is— that some thought that is contested but that is but— that some thought that is contested but that is put over— that some thought that is contested but that is put over in _ that some thought that is contested but that is put over in a _ that some thought that is contested but that is put over in a reasonablyi but that is put over in a reasonably carefully _ but that is put over in a reasonably carefully phrased _ but that is put over in a reasonably carefully phrased way, _ but that is put over in a reasonably carefully phrased way, and - but that is put over in a reasonably carefully phrased way, and then, l but that is put over in a reasonably i carefully phrased way, and then, she had the _ carefully phrased way, and then, she had the interview— carefully phrased way, and then, she had the interview on _ carefully phrased way, and then, she had the interview on the _ carefully phrased way, and then, she had the interview on the today - had the interview on the today programme _ had the interview on the today programme parts _ had the interview on the today programme parts of— had the interview on the today programme parts of which i had the interview on the today programme parts of which and | had the interview on the today i programme parts of which and other interviews _ programme parts of which and other interviews were _ programme parts of which and other interviews were seen _ programme parts of which and other interviews were seen by— programme parts of which and other interviews were seen by some - programme parts of which and other interviews were seen by some as i interviews were seen by some as public— interviews were seen by some as public less— interviews were seen by some as public less tick _ interviews were seen by some as public less tick and _ interviews were seen by some as public less tick and the _ interviews were seen by some as public less tick and the tory i interviews were seen by some as i public less tick and the tory reform group, _ public less tick and the tory reform group. the — public less tick and the tory reform group, the centre—left _ public less tick and the tory reform group, the centre—left they- public less tick and the tory reform group, the centre—left they said i public less tick and the tory reform| group, the centre—left they said the conservative — group, the centre—left they said the conservative party _ group, the centre—left they said the conservative party has _ group, the centre—left they said the conservative party has to _ group, the centre—left they said the conservative party has to think- conservative party has to think carefully — conservative party has to think carefully about _ conservative party has to think carefully about the _ conservative party has to think carefully about the type - conservative party has to think carefully about the type of i conservative party has to think- carefully about the type of campaign it wants _ carefully about the type of campaign it wants to _ carefully about the type of campaign it wants to run — carefully about the type of campaign it wants to run and _ carefully about the type of campaign it wants to run and the _ carefully about the type of campaign it wants to run and the longer- carefully about the type of campaign it wants to run and the longer term i it wants to run and the longer term impact _ it wants to run and the longer term impact of— it wants to run and the longer term impact of stoking _ it wants to run and the longer term impact of stoking culture _ it wants to run and the longer term impact of stoking culture wars, i it wants to run and the longer term impact of stoking culture wars, it i impact of stoking culture wars, it is clear— impact of stoking culture wars, it is clear that _ impact of stoking culture wars, it is clear that voters _ impact of stoking culture wars, it is clear that voters are _ impact of stoking culture wars, it is clear that voters are rejecting. is clear that voters are rejecting the politics— is clear that voters are rejecting the politics of— is clear that voters are rejecting the politics of division _ is clear that voters are rejecting the politics of division we - is clear that voters are rejecting the politics of division we musti is clear that voters are rejecting i the politics of division we must not run on _ the politics of division we must not run on wedge — the politics of division we must not run on wedge issues _ the politics of division we must not run on wedge issues for— the politics of division we must not run on wedge issues for a - the politics of division we must not run on wedge issues for a narrow i run on wedge issues for a narrow core _ run on wedge issues for a narrow core voter— run on wedge issues for a narrow core voter base _ run on wedge issues for a narrow core voter base alone. _ run on wedge issues for a narrow core voter base alone. if- run on wedge issues for a narrow core voter base alone.— run on wedge issues for a narrow core voter base alone. if you want to see how _ core voter base alone. if you want to see how manufactured - core voter base alone. if you want to see how manufactured this i core voter base alone. if you want to see how manufactured this is, l core voter base alone. if you want i to see how manufactured this is, you only need _ to see how manufactured this is, you only need to — to see how manufactured this is, you only need to look at keme's twitter, because _ only need to look at keme's twitter, because only two years ago she was singing _ because only two years ago she was singing the — because only two years ago she was singing the praises of the gender reform _ singing the praises of the gender reform certificates and such like, so again. — reform certificates and such like, so again. it — reform certificates and such like, so again, it is manufactured culture wars _ so again, it is manufactured culture wars to— so again, it is manufactured culture wars to appeal to a base, but the consequence of that is the demonisation and the monstering of one of— demonisation and the monstering of one of the _ demonisation and the monstering of one of the smallest and most vulnerable minorities in the uk at the minute, and itjust horrific to watch _ the minute, and it 'ust horrific to watch. . ~ the minute, and it 'ust horrific to watch. ., ~ , ., other on the itv leaders' election debate, the first of the campaign. we'll ask who won it on newnsight, straight after 1030. we will talk to someone who prepped nick clegg for the first leaders debate in 2010. you will probably be watching that then. taste debate in 2010. you will probably be watching that then.— watching that then. we were olitical watching that then. we were political geek. _ watching that then. we were political geek. how - watching that then. we were political geek. how old i watching that then. we were. political geek. how old before watching that then. we were i political geek. how old before you that was 14 _ political geek. how old before you that was 14 careers _ political geek. how old before you that was 14 careers ago _ political geek. how old before you that was 14 careers ago i - political geek. how old before you that was 14 careers ago i would i political geek. how old before you i that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17. 18. — that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, 18. right. _ that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, 18. right. i— that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, 18. right. i was _ that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, 18. right. i was 16 - that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so i that was 14 careers ago i would have been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so you i been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so you must have — been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so you must have been _ been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so you must have been younger. - been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so you must have been younger. do i been 17, 18. right. i was 16 so you must have been younger. do you. must have been younger. do you think, must have been younger. do you think. 2010. _ must have been younger. do you think, 2010. you _ must have been younger. do you think, 2010. you are _ must have been younger. do you think, 2010. you are right, i must have been younger. do you think, 2010. you are right, you i must have been younger. do you i think, 2010. you are right, you are right _ think, 2010. you are right, you are right i_ think, 2010. you are right, you are right i would — think, 2010. you are right, you are right. iwould have been think, 2010. you are right, you are right. i would have been about think, 2010. you are right, you are right. iwould have been about 16. you been — right. iwould have been about 16. you been so — right. iwould have been about 16. you been so long in politics, life has passed you by. let me ask you why two young women one for the conservatives, one for the snp are quitting at such a young age? d0 the snp are quitting at such a young ate? , ., the snp are quitting at such a young are? ,~. ., the snp are quitting at such a young are? y., . ., the snp are quitting at such a young are? ., ., ., the snp are quitting at such a young ate? ., ., ., , the snp are quitting at such a young are? ., ., ., , ., age? do you want to go first? i mean i have age? do you want to go first? i mean i have been — age? do you want to go first? i mean i have been pretty — age? do you want to go first? i mean i have been pretty clear— age? do you want to go first? i mean i have been pretty clear about, i - i have been pretty clear about, i don't _ i have been pretty clear about, i don't think— i have been pretty clear about, i don't think westminster is is a healthy— don't think westminster is is a healthy working environment, i think it starts_ healthy working environment, i think it starts to _ healthy working environment, i think it starts to take over your life and frankly— it starts to take over your life and frankly it. — it starts to take over your life and frankly it. i — it starts to take over your life and frankly it, i am looking forward to beings _ frankly it, i am looking forward to beings able to spend more time with my loved _ beings able to spend more time with my loved ones and to, not be in a toxic_ my loved ones and to, not be in a toxic environment, whether that be westminster or whether that be party politics. _ westminster or whether that be party politics. i_ westminster or whether that be party politics, i am just looking forward to you _ politics, i am just looking forward to you know, claiming my life back. ithink— to you know, claiming my life back. i think that — to you know, claiming my life back. i think that frame claiming my life back is— i think that frame claiming my life back is where i sit. | i think that frame claiming my life back is where i sit.— back is where i sit. i love the “0b in many ways �* back is where i sit. i love the “0b in many ways but i back is where i sit. i love the “0b in many ways but i didn't �* back is where i sit. i love the “0b in many ways but i didn't get h in many ways but i didn't get elected as young as you did but my 20s were dominated by politics, either trying to get elected or being in westminster, it was, i don't want to say a crisis, that sounds dramatic but looking ahead, i'm about to turn 30, do i want my 30s to be the same or do i want to spend it with my loved ones and give then attention and support. what spend it with my loved ones and give then attention and support.— then attention and support. what is wron: with then attention and support. what is wrong with the _ then attention and support. what is wrong with the job? _ then attention and support. what is wrong with the job? it _ then attention and support. what is wrong with the job? it is _ then attention and support. what is wrong with the job? it is hard. - then attention and support. what is wrong with the job? it is hard. you| wrong with the job? it is hard. you wrong with the 'ob? it is hard. you no in wrong with the 'ob? it is hard. you go in eyes — wrong with the job? it is hard. you go in eyes wide-open. _ wrong with the job? it is hard. you go in eyes wide-open. for- wrong with the job? it is hard. you go in eyes wide-open. for me - wrong with the job? it is hard. you. go in eyes wide-open. for me there is is a few different _ go in eyes wide-open. for me there is is a few different strands - go in eyes wide-open. for me there is is a few different strands to, - go in eyes wide-open. for me there is is a few different strands to, i - is is a few different strands to, i think. _ is is a few different strands to, i think. the — is is a few different strands to, i think, the nature of how westminster functlons— think, the nature of how westminster functions whether it is the late—nights, whether it is how slow it is to _ late—nights, whether it is how slow it is to governor—general legislation through, how much time have we _ legislation through, how much time have we wasted but then there is the other— have we wasted but then there is the other side _ have we wasted but then there is the other side certainly for me which is the travel— other side certainly for me which is the travel constantly back—and—forth, it becomes the westminster is the centre of your life and _ westminster is the centre of your life and everything else has to accommodate it, and you know, that's fair to— accommodate it, and you know, that's fair to sign— accommodate it, and you know, that's falrto sign up— accommodate it, and you know, that's fair to sign up to for a time, but, it is— fair to sign up to for a time, but, it is certainly— fair to sign up to for a time, but, it is certainly not something i would — it is certainly not something i would want to sign up to again, really~ — would want to sign up to again, reall . . would want to sign up to again, reall . , , ._ would want to sign up to again, reall. , , ., really. right. let us play you a cli of really. right. let us play you a clip of 2010- — really. right. let us play you a clip of 2010. nick _ really. right. let us play you a clip of 2010. nick clegg - really. right. let us play you a clip of 2010. nick clegg in - really. right. let us play you a clip of 2010. nick clegg in the | clip of 2010. nick clegg in the leader's debates have a look at this. . you're going to be told tonight by these two that the only choice you can make is between two old parties who have been running things for years. i'm here to persuade you that there is an alternative. i agree with nick. yiou see, i agree with nick. applause. joining us now is sean kemp, who was nick clegg's head of media at the time of the 2010 election, and also worked for him when he then became deputy pm. yes. how did you do it? lots of rehearsals. _ yes. how did you do it? lots of rehearsals, we _ yes. how did you do it? lots of rehearsals, we nigh _ yes. how did you do it? lots of rehearsals, we nigh it - yes. how did you do it? lots of rehearsals, we nigh it was - yes. how did you do it? lots of| rehearsals, we nigh it was going yes. how did you do it? lots of- rehearsals, we nigh it was going to be the biggest thin that would happen to the liberal democrats in that campaign so for months when we knew there was going to be tv debates we spent the vast imagine the of our time prepare for those, i think way more than the other two parties did because we knew that was the make or break moment. that parties did because we knew that was the make or break moment.— parties did because we knew that was the make or break moment. that was a bins the make or break moment. that was a biggs opportunity _ the make or break moment. that was a biggs opportunity for — the make or break moment. that was a biggs opportunity for the _ the make or break moment. that was a biggs opportunity for the liberal- biggs opportunity for the liberal democrat, so did you record it and you all go home and sit on your sofas as though you were a real person watching telly. irate sofas as though you were a real person watching telly. we realised if ou person watching telly. we realised if you watch _ person watching telly. we realised if you watch it _ person watching telly. we realised if you watch it in _ person watching telly. we realised if you watch it in the _ person watching telly. we realised if you watch it in the room - person watching telly. we realised if you watch it in the room you - person watching telly. we realised if you watch it in the room you are | if you watch it in the room you are not getting the full sense, we would watch it on the sofas with our family, see want what it felt like and that is what the tricks people talk about that debate of looking down the camera lens and so on, it came from that, it came from rehearsal really.— came from that, it came from rehearsal really. and how did it chan . e rehearsal really. and how did it change his _ rehearsal really. and how did it change his fortunes _ rehearsal really. and how did it change his fortunes or - rehearsal really. and how did it change his fortunes or the - rehearsal really. and how did it i change his fortunes or the liberal democrats fortunes? it change his fortunes or the liberal democrats fortunes?— democrats fortunes? it comely transformed _ democrats fortunes? it comely transformed it. _ democrats fortunes? it comely transformed it. people - democrats fortunes? it comely transformed it. people look. democrats fortunes? it comely transformed it. people look at| democrats fortunes? it comelyl transformed it. people look at it now because there was a massive clegg—mania bubble that sort of burst but they forget start we were struggling to getjournalists to come on the election tour bus and wanted to cover up, by the end of it we had managed to maintain our seat, people thought wouldn't happen, i argue that if those tv debates hadn't happened and nick, i think david cameron would have won a majority in, think they is are what made difference. john curtice how much do these television debates, how much can they affect the result on voting day?— on voting day? well, that first leaders debate _ on voting day? well, that first leaders debate back _ on voting day? well, that first leaders debate back in - on voting day? well, that first leaders debate back in 2010 i leaders debate back in 2010 certainly had an impact on the campaign, the liberal democrats rotes— campaign, the liberal democrats rotes speck tack —— spectacularly in the polls— rotes speck tack —— spectacularly in the polls but the time it got to polling — the polls but the time it got to polling day they were almost back down _ polling day they were almost back down again and they ended up with six fewer— down again and they ended up with six fewer seats than they had in 2005. _ six fewer seats than they had in 2005, that one was of the surprises of the _ 2005, that one was of the surprises of the election, one that was however— of the election, one that was however anticipated by the exit polls. — however anticipated by the exit polls, since then, frankly the leaders — polls, since then, frankly the leaders debates have not had anything like the same impact. we had two _ anything like the same impact. we had two at — anything like the same impact. we had two at the last election for the first time _ had two at the last election for the first time just double headers between borisjohnson first time just double headers between boris johnson and jeremy corbyn _ between boris johnson and jeremy corbyn. maybe, maybe if you look at the detail— corbyn. maybe, maybe if you look at the detail as i did earlier today, the detail as i did earlier today, the labour— the detail as i did earlier today, the labour party perhaps edged up a bit in the _ the labour party perhaps edged up a bit in the wake of those, but frankly— bit in the wake of those, but frankly it _ bit in the wake of those, but frankly it didn't fundamentally change — frankly it didn't fundamentally change the course of that election, so, sometimesjust occasionally change the course of that election, so, sometimes just occasionally the debates— so, sometimes just occasionally the debates make a difference, the point about— debates make a difference, the point about 2010 is that viewers got to know _ about 2010 is that viewers got to know and — about 2010 is that viewers got to know and see nick clegg for the first time — know and see nick clegg for the first time and he put in a remarkably good performance but very often they— remarkably good performance but very often they are a rehash of what voters — often they are a rehash of what voters already know rather than telling — voters already know rather than telling them something new and they don't have _ telling them something new and they don't have that impact.— don't have that impact. briefly john, don't have that impact. briefly john. there — don't have that impact. briefly john, there have _ don't have that impact. briefly john, there have been - don't have that impact. briefly john, there have been a - don't have that impact. briefly i john, there have been a number don't have that impact. briefly - john, there have been a number of polls out today, front—page of the daily mail their headline is irishise darkest hour, it is talking about nigel farage standing and the poll that labour are heading for the biggest victory in election history. what that poll underlines and we have known it for some considerable time lroth— have known it for some considerable time both from previous 308s and the local election, the conservative party _ local election, the conservative party is— local election, the conservative party is losing votes where it is trying — party is losing votes where it is trying to— party is losing votes where it is trying to defend. 0nce party is losing votes where it is trying to defend. once you is that right— trying to defend. once you is that right converting any share of vote and there — right converting any share of vote and there is nothing rourke about this you _ and there is nothing rourke about this you discovered the conservatives are on course to lose more, _ conservatives are on course to lose more. basic— conservatives are on course to lose more, basic changes in the electoral geography— more, basic changes in the electoral geography of party, tory support is capable _ geography of party, tory support is capable of— geography of party, tory support is capable of losing them an extra 60 seats, _ capable of losing them an extra 60 seats, beyond the 180 or so they would _ seats, beyond the 180 or so they would lose already. is seats, beyond the 180 or so they would lose already.— would lose already. is nicola sturgeon _ would lose already. is nicola sturgeon an _ would lose already. is nicola sturgeon an asset for the . would lose already. is nicola i sturgeon an asset for the snp? would lose already. is nicola - sturgeon an asset for the snp? i think so. she is a seasoned campaigner but yes, there is of course i think it is right you know she is not front and certain terse, she is not front and certain terse, she is not front and certain terse, she is not the leader and there are other things going on in if life. i5 other things going on in if life. is borisjohnson an asset other things going on in if life. is boris johnson an asset in this, borisjohnson an asset in this, should he be? we haven't seen him. it feels irrelevant because he is nowhere — it feels irrelevant because he is nowhere to be seen. why it feels irrelevant because he is nowhere to be seen.— it feels irrelevant because he is nowhere to be seen. why isn't he campaigning _ nowhere to be seen. why isn't he campaigning l— nowhere to be seen. why isn't he campaigning i suppose _ nowhere to be seen. why isn't he campaigning i suppose when - nowhere to be seen. why isn't he campaigning i suppose when i - nowhere to be seen. why isn't he| campaigning i suppose when i put m self in campaigning i suppose when i put myself in his _ campaigning i suppose when i put myself in his shoes _ campaigning i suppose when i put myself in his shoes you _ campaigning i suppose when i put myself in his shoes you probably l myself in his shoes you probably think— myself in his shoes you probably think you — myself in his shoes you probably think you chose to get rid of me so why should — think you chose to get rid of me so why should i help. he still believes in the _ why should i help. he still believes in the conservative cause so i would expect _ in the conservative cause so i would expect him — in the conservative cause so i would expect him to come out even to help a few— expect him to come out even to help a few of— expect him to come out even to help a few of his — expect him to come out even to help a few of his closest colleagues. the -a to a few of his closest colleagues. the party to say — a few of his closest colleagues. the party to say bring back boris. thank— party to say bring back boris. thank you _ party to say bring back boris. thank you. thank _ party to say bring back boris. thank you. thank you - party to say bring back boris. thank you. thank you very i party to say bring back boris. - thank you. thank you very much. we'll bring you analysis of the first tv leaders' debate. 0ur panel is mick lynch of the rmt and broadcaster piers morgan. but before we go, a reminder there's more to life than an election, and one man showed us all how to live, even when faced with tremendous adversity. here's rob burrow�*s final message to you, with support from his friends and family. goodnight.