Cabinet meetings happen every week, usually on a tuesday rather than wednesday, but it was cancelled yesterday because the Prime Minister was abroad. Lots of Civil Servants say they were encountering bizarre behaviour from officials in say they were encountering Bizarre Behaviourfrom officials in Downing Street, not communicating with them in the way they would normally expect. And slowly, the Building Blocks of a likely announcement started to take place. Now sources are emphasising privately that we are emphasising privately that we are probably not many minutes away from that confirmation after lots of discussions in the heart of government going on for some time about when to go for a General Election. Its a quirk of the British Electoral system that the power lies with the Prime Minister to pick the date, up to a legal backstop beyond which they cannot go. That is at the tail end of january next year, but the Prime Minister holds the power of surprise, and this will be and is going to be a surprise. I surprise, and this will be and is going to be a surprise. Surprise, and this will be and is going to be a surprise. I was going to sa , going to be a surprise. I was going to say. You going to be a surprise. I was going to say. You are going to be a surprise. I was going to say, you are close going to be a surprise. I was going to say, you are close to going to be a surprise. I was going to say, you are close to this going to be a surprise. I was going to say, you are close to this and i to say, you are close to this and you have been watching the build up, but for many people out there, they will be switching the tv on and wondering where this came from. Why is he doing it today . Mat wondering where this came from. Why is he doing it today . Is he doing it today . Not only will there be peeple is he doing it today . Not only will there be people turning is he doing it today . Not only will there be people turning on is he doing it today . Not only will there be people turning on and i there be people turning on and asking themselves that question, there are people in this postcode, people in this government who themselves are asking that question, because the indications had been from seniorfigures because the indications had been from senior figures until very recently that it was more likely to be in the autumn because the Prime Minister could allow it to happen then. You would be guaranteed a certain time in government before an outcome that looks shaky as things stand when you look at the Opinion Polls. It would also give a chance for the economy to improve further. But there have been others close to him who have been saying, look, there is a desire out there for a chance to have a say. And if you are seen to put that off, that might make it worse for us. And when they say us, they mean the Conservative Party. So there have been there saying that in his ear. There are also those around the Prime Minister who have been looking at some of the news of recent weeks like the Inflation News we were reporting from seven oclock this morning. The rate rises of prices is coming very close to the government target, down from 11 when rishi sunak became Prime Minister. Other Economic Indicators are beginning to look a little better, although lots of people will say hang on, things do still feel difficult. The Prime Minister acknowledged that this morning. They have their flagship rwanda legislation into law, the idea of sending some migrants to east africa to try, they hope, to put off people attempting small boat crossings. Put off people attempting small boat crossinus. �. ,. ,. ,. , , crossings. Although no one has been sent et. Crossings. Although no one has been sent yet it crossings. Although no one has been sent yet. It hasnt crossings. Although no one has been sent yet. It hasnt happened crossings. Although no one has been sent yet. It hasnt happened yet. Sent yet. It hasnt happened yet. From that sent yet. It hasnt happened yet. From that perspective, sent yet. It hasnt happened yet. From that perspective, they sent yet. It hasnt happened yet. | from that perspective, they could sent yet. It hasnt happened yet. From that perspective, they could go into the campaign saying that is a clear Dividing Line with labour, who have said they would stop those flights if they were to win the General Election. And with those flights not having gone, the argument that that scheme would prove to be a deterrent has not yet been tested. And if it were to prove not to be a deterrent from a crumb of the conservatives perspective, perhaps thats best that it becomes an argument that you make rather than have critics being able to point to the opposite if that were to be the case. What else might have been playing in the minds of people in government tempted to go now . Its back to where we started, the surprise factor. We have had various moments this year of speculation. I have been pretty relaxed when my phone has been ringing off the hook at every point prior to today, because it was easy to establish that it was rubbish. I would speak to various folk inside and elsewhere and it would quickly be established that it wasnt going to happen. What was different today and from Last Night Onwards was that that wasnt happening, and i could tell that this felt different. The conversation, the balance of debate within that building had shifted towards wanting to go sooner rather than later. And there is a surprise element because only those in there, a handful of people around the Prime Minister, would know and can make a decision. For everyone else in government and the Opposition Parties, it is a case of getting and back timing or their plans to various hypothetical dates, not knowing when you might want to have that manifesto of promises ready to 90, that manifesto of promises ready to go, whether its a good idea to do a big announcement this week or not, because maybe we have months yet to go. So it has the power of surprise, and on that side of the ledger, surprise and where they perceive themselves to have got in the 18 plus months of rishi sunak Prime Minister, has led them to think this is the best chance for them. So it looks like, here we go. It is worth statin looks like, here we go. It is worth stating for looks like, here we go. It is worth stating for anybody looks like, here we go. It is worth stating for anybody who looks like, here we go. It is worth stating for anybody who happensl looks like, here we go. It is worth i stating for anybody who happens to be switching on, we are here in Downing Street along with many others from media outlets. There is an expectation that the Prime Minister is going to make an announcement and it has been building all day, but we dont know whether there will be an announcement and if so, what its going to be. Chris, you have talked about the economy, with better figures today on inflation. You talked about his pledge to stop the small boats. If he were to call an election now, would there be a sort of weighing up on his part and thinking, this is as good as its going to get . Thinking, this is as good as its auoin to net . ,. ,. , going to get . Yes, that is the Human Rationale the going to get . Yes, that is the Human Rationale the prime going to get . Yes, that is the Human Rationale the Prime Minister going to get . Yes, that is the Human Rationale the Prime Minister is rationale the Prime Minister is likely to have come to as a conclusion. I say that for two reasons. One is the shift unshiftable truth that the conservatives have been in powerfor 14 conservatives have been in powerfor 1a years, and there is a difficult headwind for any political government to walk into. In 2010, when labour had been in powerfor 13 years, it became difficult. Not necessarily impossible, but it becomes difficult and we have seen that reflected in Opinion Polls and local and by Election Results. There is also a psychological point for both the Prime Minister and the chancellor. They became Prime Minister and chancellor as a result of one of the most astonishing moments in contemporary british political history, that incredibly short period as Prime Minister that liz truss had. Rishi sunak and jeremy hunt, the chancellor, will have felt in the summer of 2022 that their political careers in all likelihood were over stop it was a reasonable expectation that liz truss would serve until a General Election and maybe beyond if she was able to win it. They became Prime Minister and chancellor, the two most commanding figures in british government, not by accident, but by a quirk of history. And that has informed their approach to the last couple of years, that desire to steady the ship, both economically and politically, in their view to restore the reputation of the uk on the International Stage after a period where, bluntly, a lot of people had been laughing at the fragility of british politics, and to attempt to give their party the best possible platform for which to go into an election that was almost always going to be very difficult for them. Always going to be very difficult forthem. Looking always going to be very difficult for them. Looking at the Opinion Polls and recent Election Results, thatis polls and recent Election Results, that is as true now as it would have been later in the year. So whilst there might have been a temptation to go longer because that allows more time in government and potentially for things to brighten further economically, predicting the future is a mugs game and things might have felt worse for them. So it would now seem a Racing Certainty that after an intense discussion behind that door involving people of different views and different instincts on what is a fine judgment call attempting to weigh up a range of factors, many of which are difficult to extrapolate into the future, they have concluded for themselves and perhaps more broadly for the country too, that now is the right time for a General Election. We are going to come back to you shortly, but im going to let you check your phone. Im sure you are getting lots of messages. We will be back with you shortly. That was chris mason, our Political Editor. Lets crossed in the newsroom now and speak to hannah white from the institute for government, who is in our newsroom. Im glad you are in the warm and dry in this wet may day. Talk us through what we are likely to see, should the Prime Minister make the announcement that people are expecting . I have to stress, we still dont know, but what would be the protocol . Indie stress, we still dont know, but what would be the protocol . We would exect the what would be the protocol . We would exoect the prime what would be the protocol . We would expect the Prime Minister what would be the protocol . We would expect the Prime Minister to what would be the protocol . We would expect the Prime Minister to come expect the Prime Minister to come out in the next few minutes or the next hour and make an announcement to say he has already spoken to the king or he is planning to go to the palace to ask for a Dissolution Of Parliament in order to hold a General Election. Normally, parliament would continue to sit for a few days to deal with the legislation which is currently going through the house. There are still 16 Government Bills, which in an ideal world, the government would like to see become law, so there will be what is called a wash up where they took to the Opposition Parties and try to speed that legislation onto the statute book. Then the expectation would be that if you had an election on the 11th of july, you would need to have dissolved Parliament By Thursday Next week. At that point, all mps cease to become mps and theyjust become candidates standing for election and we will be into the general Election Campaign. find election and we will be into the general Election Campaign. And why is it the ltth general Election Campaign. And why is it the 4th of general Election Campaign. And why is it the 4th ofjuly general Election Campaign. And why is it the 4th of july that general Election Campaign. And why is it the 4th ofjuly that people is it the ltth ofjuly that people are talking about . Just is it the 4th ofjuly that people are talking about . Is it the 4th ofjuly that people are talking about . Just on the basis of when the are talking about . Just on the basis of when the announcement are talking about . Just on the basis of when the announcement is are talking about . Just on the basis of when the announcement is being made, the fact that you will need a few days for wash up, for parliament to conclude its business. If you factor in thursday next week as being the last day on which parliament might sit, its 25 days for an Election Campaign, 25 working days before the election would then be held. The reasoning people are thinking of is that that would be before English Schools break up for the holidays, although not Scottish Schools, they would already have finished the summer. But there are lots of different calculations that go into picking an election date, as chris was saying. Chris was saying. Hannah, i dont know if you were chris was saying. Hannah, i dont know if you were Listening Chris was saying. Hannah, i dont know if you were listening to chris was saying. Hannah, i dont| know if you were listening to chris mason, our Political Editor, who was saying that he read the runes and listens to people and he often dismisses speculation of election took, but people have been responding differently in the last few hours, particularly amongst the Civil Service. What would change in a Civil Servants behaviour if there is an expectation of a General Election . {lit is an expectation of a General Election . U, is an expectation of a General Election . ,. Election . Of course, the Civil Service has election . Of course, the Civil Service has to election . Of course, the Civil Service has to be election . Of course, the Civil Service has to be careful election . Of course, the civill service has to be careful when election . Of course, the Civil Service has to be careful when they get into an Election Campaign to make sure nothing they do can be perceived as working on behalf of the government at that point or to promote the governments interests, because Government Mps have become candidates for election at that point. But chris will have been referring to examples of meetings being cancelled, ministers seeming to cut short their international travel. For me, the persuasive thing has been the absence of denial. Gordon brown is the famous example of a Prime Minister who allowed speculation about an election being called to run riot and then didnt called to run riot and then didnt call an election. Prime ministers are now very cognizant of the fact that they need to shut down that sort of speculative and quickly if they are not going to call an election. Rishi sunak had an opportunity to do that at Prime Ministers questions today, and he answered in a way which did not shut down the speculation. Yes. Answered in a way which did not shut down the specul