Borzou daragahi is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an iranian journalist. He explains who Ebraham Raisi is and how he came to power. Raisi was a mid ranking cleric who is in the inner circle of the Supreme Leader and one of his close allies and, you know, he became president after all of the reformist and moderate candidates were pretty much disqualified in an election that was considered engineered and many voters stayed away from. Earlier, i spoke to trita parsi, co founder and executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for responsible macro what can we expect to hear from the regime macro what can we expect to hearfrom the regime in the coming hours and days here . I think the expectation at this point is that by in a few hours, morning time in tehran, there will be an announcement that even if they may have found the helicopter, it looks extremely unlikely that there will be any survivors. They may have survived the crash, but surviving the night in the cold is a different story, particularly if they are already injured, and i think very likely we are going to go towards some sort of a process that we all deal with notjust a Vice President taking over, but most importantly that they will be announcing elections in 50 days, which is going to be a very difficult thing for them. Mindful of how apathetic the public is right now since they have lost faith in the chance of actually bringing about any faith in the ballot box. I of actually bringing about any faith in the ballot box. Faith in the ballot box. I want to ask more faith in the ballot box. I want to ask more about faith in the ballot box. I want to ask more about that faith in the ballot box. I want i to ask more about that because as you say the regime appears to be unpopular, participation has been low in recent parliamentary elections, so what do you anticipate happening, if that is the case, if people are called on to go to the ballot box here . Well, they may to the ballot box here . Well, they may try to the ballot box here . Well, they may try to to the ballot box here . Well, they may try to do to the ballot box here . Well, they may try to do a to the ballot box here . Well, they may try to do a safe to the ballot box here . Well, | they may try to do a safe bet, which is just to they may try to do a safe bet, which isjust to have they may try to do a safe bet, which is just to have a few variations of the same type of a conservative candidate, and then they will just a conservative candidate, and then they willjust bite the bullet that people are not participating in the elections, they will say because it is a short period of time for preparation, orthey short period of time for preparation, or they may actually try to drum up some degree of enthusiasm, by ensuring that there actually are some real choices on the ballot. In the last couple of elections they have essentially eliminated any real potent candidates that can be a threat to the conservatives, which is part of the reason why people have become apathetic and given up have become apathetic and given up on the idea of change through the ballot box. Given the very sensitive issue of the secession of the Supreme Leader, he is likely to pass in the next few years, it does not seem likely that they will take the opportunity to actually bring in some different candidates. They will most likely play it safe, i suspect. And on that point for those iranians, those very many iranians, those very many iranians who have been out on the street, they have been protesting, putting themselves at risk here. You dont think essentially they will be Breathing A Sigh of relief, thinking there will be any kind of real change here in policies . Of real change here in policies . Of real change here in olicies . ,. , policies . No, because at the end of the policies . No, because at the end of the day, policies . No, because at the end of the day, ebrahim policies . No, because at the| end of the day, Ebrahim Raisi was not a particularly important president or impactful president. He was not a Driving Force behind any of the policies that have been pursued under his presidency. So his absence from the scene is not likely going to impact any particular impact of the policy. It is the consequences of his absence however in terms of his absence however in terms of the potential crisis within the regime, as well as further inviting etc that may bring about certain dynamics, but the idea that he was some sort of a Driving Force of any particular policy is quite a stretch. Vote yes, so on that point, president raisi thought to potentially have been groomed to become irans next Supreme Leader, so if that succession does not unfold, do you think it could cause some more domestic turmoil and instability . It certainly can create turmoil within the structures of the regime itself. The competition for this role is very, very intense, but they are trying to keep a lid on it. Speculation about president raisi Being A Frontrunner at this point is Reallyjust Frontrunner at this point is really just speculation, frontrunner at this point is reallyjust speculation, i dont think it is entirely clear, i dont think the regime really wants its hand to be known on this matter but if there is any suspicion that they might have been some foul play here, it can really intensify tensions in regards to the secession process. Succession process will stop if the errani regime ends up in some sort of debilitating crisis at this point and cannot make a decision, you may end up seeing a lesser control of tehran of the militias in iraq and syria that it has been supporting, who actually want to be more aggressive towards the United States than tehran has wanted, and tehran has rein them in. If that is to happen and you actually start seeing these militias start attacking us troops again, then that obviously will be a very problematic situation for the United States. Weve had some reaction from global leaders. A white house spokesperson told reporters that President Joe Biden had been briefed on the situation but did not elaborate further. Iraqs Prime Minister has instructed its interior ministry, as well as the red crescent and other relevant authorities to make Resources Available for iran. The president of azerbaijan, ilham aliyev, who was with his iranian counterpart before the accident, sends his countrys prayers to president raisi. And russia one of irans biggest allies has also deployed a rescue team, and said it was ready to help investigate the cause of the crash. This is footage from russia, showing a rescue helicopter, which was being loaded onto a plane, which was headed to the mountainous terrain where, as we know, bad weather has been hampering the search. But of course we have had more updates on what is happening but you can take a look here at the bbc live page. In go to that i can bring you some of the fat reporting through now a breaking piece of news that we gotjust breaking piece of news that we got just a breaking piece of news that we gotjust a matter of minutes ago, saying according to errani in state tv, no sign of life at the helicopter site. That is coming from the state tv and we should also save the Reuters News Agency as well has reported that the helicopter was completely burnt, in the crash, that is citing an iranian official, that latest line of Breaking News. Of course, that Helicopter Location was located also with irans red crescent society, and they said as they were getting closer that the situation did not appear to be good. Lets take us through some of the reporting we have from our colleagues at bbc persian, who have key contacts on all of this and exactly what is happening there in iran. We have a post from our colleague who is in new york, and he says there is no clarity, but there is a familiar stage being set for iranians, and he says here, for iranians, and he says here, for those of us who lived in iran in the late 1980s, the days leading up to the official announcement of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and the images of the funeral, are etched into our memory. And the Islamic Republic media a pruritus prepare the ground by asking people to pray for the leader, and of course we had heard that announcement in the past few minutes. Loyalist responded by gathering and masks and at the Crack Of Dawn Those Moods shifted from praying to his health to mourning his loss, and then the State Broadcast at 7am, and State Broadcast at 7am, and State Media Reports and the tone of the current leader Ayatollah Khamenei seems to be setting a similar stage, according to our bbc persian colleague by asking the public to pray, also with loyalists gathering at a square in tehran to do so and also reassurances that the day to day running of the affairs of the country wont be impacted. He said while we await clarity over what happened at the crash site, reading the Tea Leaves Points to the regime preparing this familiar playback. Another post as well from another colleague at bbc persia. Our Senior Reporter there. They are pointing out what he calls irans poor Aviation Safety record, saying that the cause of the Helicopter Crash is not yet known, but saying that iran has a poor Air Transport safety record, and this is at least partly the result of decades of us sanctions, which have severely weakened its aerial fleet. It severely weakened its aerial fleet. ,. , severely weakened its aerial fleet. ,. ,. ,. , fleet. It was a model made in the united fleet. It was a model made in the United States fleet. It was a model made in the United States and fleet. It was a model made in the United States and could l fleet. It was a model made in l the United States and could not have been sold to iran since the i979 have been sold to iran since the 1979 revolution. Previous ministers have died in a plane or Helicopter Crashes, and when reformists lead irans governments they aimed to negotiate a deal with the west that would see those sanctions lifted. However, these efforts, and our viewers will remember, stored when President Trump withdrew from the deal and reimpose sanctions of course over the development of Irans Nuclear weapons. So reformers were opposed, mocked by hardliners who insisted iran could rely on its Domestic Industries and foreign allies to improve Aviation Safety. Just some context fare on the live blog page, which you will find very useful as we continue to cover this Breaking News. But we can also bring in. Joining me now is negar mortazavi, seniorfellow at the center for International Policy and host of the iran podcast. Very good to have you with us as we track this developing story. What do you make of the latest that we are now hearing . Well, the latest that i am seeing is the remains of the crash site, i mean, it is a very developing story, and also the announcement that there is no sign of life so i think at this point the assumption is they have passed, that they are dead, and this is very significant for the country, two top officials, the president and the Foreign Minister, if there is in fact confirmed dead, this would be a major incident, fairly unprecedented in modern errani in history these two top officials to suddenly pass, it would have major ramifications for irans domestic politics, foreign policy, and it would just be followed probably by a period of relevant chaos. Just thinkin period of relevant chaos. Just thinking about period of relevant chaos. Just thinking about what we could see in the coming hours, days, as you say, two people who are pro who are high Profile Dignitaries in the country, so this is relatively unprecedented, but how does iran mourn its dignitaries, and what a transfer of power look like . ~ ,. , what a transfer of power look like . ,. , like . Well, they would possibly be, they usually like . Well, they would possibly be, they usually would like . Well, they would possibly be, they usually would be be, they usually would be announced days of mourning, so National Days of mourning, where the entire country will essentially be off and will be mourning, and notjust one top official but two top officials in this case, the president and the Foreign Minister. First of all the Vice President will be replacing the president , if the president is dead, and then he is required with the help of the speaker of the parliament and other top officials to essentially assemble a replacement, and that a new president ial election, within 50 days for the public to elect a new president , so having a slate of candidates, organising an election, that will all be very complicated and difficult in this short amount of time. But then at the same time i want to emphasise that the president is not the number one person in iran, so there is still the Supreme Leader at the top of the political spectrum, and the Supreme Leader has already announced that this incident wont create any disruptions in the working of the country, so i think that would provide some form of continuity. It is not like a country where the Head Of State would have to be replaced, but i think it will still be a very difficult and challenging time considering the event of the region, the expanding war in the middle east. Region, the expanding war in the middle east. Yes. What do ou think the middle east. Yes. What do you think potentially the middle east. Yes. What do you think potentially could the middle east. Yes. What do you think potentially could be | you think potentially could be the impact there, as we continue to see the war between israel and gaza . Israel and gaza . Well, iran has been indirectly israel and gaza . Well, iran has been indirectly involved israel and gaza . Well, iran has been indirectly involved in been indirectly involved in this war on the side of the axis of resistance so called with its allies, the houthis, and a share in iraq and also hamas. So even though it is not a direct involvement or confrontation, in a way it is party to the war, and so that has consumed much of the countrys general foreign policy. Now the country will have to turn inward and resolve this chaos, and it will take away from the resources they are investing on theirforeign policy and it will create disruptions, political disruptions, political disruptions, potentially social also, the country is coming out of two years of mass protests, Anti Government protests, and very serious crisis, this president if in fact dead, the late president or the president was not a very popular one, and so to try to replace and also would just be a probably adding more fuel to that fire. I would just be a probably adding more fuel to that fire. More fuel to that fire. I want to ask potentially more fuel to that fire. I want to ask potentially what more fuel to that fire. I want to ask potentially what you l to ask potentially what you think this could mean for the Nuclear Programme . Just last week the Iranian Foreign minister he was also a board that helicopter had met with a head of the International Atomic agency, who continue to demand for greater access to Irans Nuclear facilities. Essentially any major decision does come from the top, so the president is not the only decision maker. In this case he wasnt even around when the decisions were ready set. There are still a Long Term Strategy and policy so i dont think that Long Term Strategy of a country will be impacted, but as you said, the Foreign Minister, the main diplomat, the on boy and the vehicle for diplomacy or nuclear negotiations, the outward facing of the Nuclear Programme, if dead, would have to be replaced, and that will also create disruptions in any potential working with the Atomic Energy agency, with the west, ps, in any form of negotiations and agreements on a nuclear site. So this will also at least create disruptions on the diplomatic side. ,. ,. , side. Ten one, irani and journalist side. Ten one, irani and journalist and side. Ten one, irani and journalist and political l journalist and political analyst, we will leave it there for now but thank you so much for now but