Iranian analyst abbas faiz gave me his thoughts and reflections on the events of the day so far. Well, i think the scenario that they would probably find the occupants of the helicopter alive may have become somewhat unlikely. So the next scenario might be that they probably know, based on past practice, past practice of the government of the Islamic Republic, they probably know what has happened. And then, again, we have two possibilities. The first possibility is that if, for example, Ebrahim Raisi is still alive, but injured. In that case, i think they would announce the news straightaway and very quickly. But if there is another news for example, that, you know, he is not alive the past practice of the Islamic Republic has been to suppress that news, to suppress that news for quite a few days. And this happened at the time of the death of ayatollah khomeini, and they really announced it several days later. Now, why would they suppress the news . That is really a very big question and an important question. Because they would be afraid of the reactions that the people may actually have against, you know, the situation, against the government, against the system. Because, as, you know, we know, raisi was not actually a loved person to many iranians. In fact, quite the opposite. He was a member, a Senior Member of what is known as the Death Committee. And that Death Committee was responsible, in the 1980s, for the execution of more than 4,000 prisoners. And since, you know, since the death of mahsa amini in 2022, raisi has been actually in charge of the repression that has been meted out to the peaceful protesters, those who actually protested the death of mahsa amini in the custody of the morality police. And since then, 500 people have been killed by agents of the state, 500 protesters more, even more than 21,000 have been actually taken into custody, and many of them have been subjected to severe torture. Quite a lot of people including really, a large number of women have been executed since this year. So he is not a loved person. Mr faiz, id like to just go back to the fact that one of the likely scenarios would be the news, the likely news of the deaths of those on board. In that particular scenario, the suppression of that news, you said its more the fact that iranians would almost welcome a change at the top. Obviously, the very top is the Supreme Leader. But is that a real threat to the Iranian Regime . Well, it is a threat. And as we know, i mean, this is a regime that is only able to stay in power by carrying out severe repression. I mean, the number of, for example, Teenage Girls who have been subjected to all sorts of horrible treatment in detention simply because theyve been protesting in the streets peacefully. And the way that the regime has been reacting to everyone who is actually expressing, you know, some criticism of the government is very severe. So the regime is afraid. It isjust a regime that really is afraid, yeah. Weve heard a number of analysts say that in terms of continuity, that may not necessarily be an issue. But how stable is the constitution, the Iranian Constitution . Well, the Iranian Constitution, in fact, im glad that youve asked me that question, because ive read that constitution. And it is a constitution that is on a piece of paper. It is a constitution that is not actually complete. There are several items of that constitution that are actually in breach of the International Human rights law. So we are not talking about that just at the moment. But what im trying to say is that that constitution, none of the items of that constitution, none of the actually provisions of that constitution has been put into practice. In fact, theyve been all breached by the powers the Supreme Leader has. Now, the Supreme Leader is a person who is really, you know, kind of age is catching up with him. Hes probably not as agile as he was before. He may have difficulty in making certain types of decisions. So, i mean, all of these issues really create a very tough situation for the regime, and that is probably why they want to be prepared. They want to have all their forces in the street, in order to prevent any possible reaction from the people. What youre describing there is a case of the conditions in which we could see a number of changes made within iran. Like you said, the Supreme Leader is elderly. Hes 83. Hes ill. We may, obviously speculating, but we may well have to watch as iran looks for a new president , a new Foreign Minister and, you know, restructure, restructure the parliament. It does make you wonder, doesnt it, with the world watching on, how much instability. The region itself is so sensitive at the moment. Yes, i know. And, i mean, this is a regime that has made several really big mistakes. For example, one of the big mistakes that was made and that was under the president ship of raisi was to attack pakistan with, you know, missiles. And then pakistanis came back and attacked iran. So, i mean, that was. I mean, nobody in any kind of right frame of mind would have expected the Iranian Regime to actually carry out that attack, but they did. So that is one mistake that they made. The other mistake is just the way that they havent actually looked at the reports of severe corruption. I mean, one of the persons whose Corrupt Practices have been highlighted is a very, very close person to Ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic. And, i mean, no action has been taken against him. Whereas, you know, ordinary people, if, for example, something goes wrong, if they actually walk in the street, if they Say Something against the regime, they are taken into detention. Some of them are actually, you know, receive huge sentences, some death sentences. So this is not a regime thats actually acting in a logical manner. And there are probably people within the regime who may want a different type of leadership. And that leadership, they probably know that its not going to be in the person of Ayatollah Khamenei. Its not going to be in the person of Ebrahim Raisi, which actually opens the doorfor a lot of speculation. Whether there is really, you know, the kind of this Helicopter Crash, whatever the reason of this Helicopter Crash in the future may come to be, whether it was, you know, something that really grows may come to be, whether it was, you know, something that really rose out of the tension between the different factions within the regime. So we dont know. We dont know at this stage. Yeah, there had been this idea that the political space had tightened a lot, hadnt it, since mr raisis election to power . 50 days, i understand, is the timeframe within which elections will need to be held. And weve now heard from the Supreme Leader, himself telling iranians not to worry. What do you make of that tone . Well, exactly. If they dont know what has happened, why should the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic come and say, dont worry, we have got everything under our control . I mean, if Ebrahim Raisi is alive, they wouldnt definitely talk like that. So they must know what has happened to Ebrahim Raisi and they want to really prepare people. They want to prepare people, their own kind of, you know, supporters. So on the issue of replacing Ebrahim Raisi, i mean, under the constitution, we of course know that the deputy to Ebrahim Raisi should be the, you know, kind of should take over until the elections take place. But the constitution allows the Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, to actually veto that and put his own person in place. So really, it is all kind of dependent on what Ayatollah Khamenei will do. And that is where, you know, we need to also look at the tension that exists between the different factions in the Islamic Republic echelon. Whether those, you know, those people, those factions that want a more kind of, you know, logical society, logical iran, logicalforeign policy, whether they will be able to actually exert their authority and say enough is enough, or they will again, once more, allow Ayatollah Khamenei to call the shots. I have been speaking to a number of analysts. Earlier, i spoke to the senior director for strategic 0utreach at the middle east institute, firas maksad, and asked him if this was a Crisis Situation for iran. Well, it is definitely a blow for the iranian government, no doubt. To lose your president and not be able to locate him for over seven, maybe eight hours now is deeply embarrassing for any country, let alone a regime that has been accused widely of corruption and incompetence by its people. I think for many iranians, this also brings back memories of another Aviation Disaster the regime was held responsible for, which was the inadvertent shooting down of the Ukrainian Airline injanuary 2020 which the regime subsequently took responsibility for and explained it by saying they had mistaken it for an american cruise missile. So i think this kind of news and coverage only deepens the rift between the iranian government and the people and reinforces what many already believe, which is that the government is deeply incompetent. And i would only add also to ask for support and assistance from other countries when you project yourself as a regional power, having to ask for Night Vision Equipment from the turks, having to ask for Satellite Data and reconnaissance from the europeans who the islamic regime and iran portray as part of a decadent west, again, ithink iran portray as part of a decadent west, again, i think this is maybe not a moment of crisis, but it is another data point along the way for the regime in its deepening lack of legitimacy. I the regime in its deepening lack of lecitima. ,. ,. ,. , legitimacy. I ust want to clarify one legitimacy. I ust want to clarify point. Legitimacy. I just want to clarify one point. You legitimacy. I just want to clarify one point. You are legitimacy. I just want to clarify one point. You are saying legitimacy. I just want to clarify one point. You are saying they| one point. You are saying they reached out for help. I wasnt exactly clear on that point. Yes, it has been widely exactly clear on that point. Yes, it has been widely reported exactly clear on that point. Yes, it has been widely reported now exactly clear on that point. Yes, it| has been widely reported now that they have been reaching out for assistance when it comes to turkey, they have asked for Night Vision Equipment. It doesnt seem that they have that kind of capability. And when it came to the europeans, as mentioned, there is a request for satellite information. fik. Mentioned, there is a request for satellite information. Satellite information. 0k. Lets move on to satellite information. 0k. Lets move on to what satellite information. 0k. Lets move on to what this satellite information. Ok. Lets move on to what this will satellite information. 0k. Letsj move on to what this will mean satellite information. 0k. Lets move on to what this will mean away from iran. The us obviously will be looking at this, watching what happens very closely. What will it mean to them . Happens very closely. What will it mean to them . Well, there is risk, but there is mean to them . Well, there is risk, but there is also mean to them . Well, there is risk, but there is also opportunities. Mean to them . Well, there is risk, j but there is also opportunities. The opportunity here is if in fact president raisi and perhaps even the Foreign Minister have passed, that there would be a state funeral. And State Funerals are very interesting because they create an opportunity for others in the region but even beyond to interact and it opens potentially doors and avenues for cooperation. So if there is a state funeral, i think we would want to watch who, from countries and at what level send representatives to pay their respects for the fallen president and the Foreign Minister. If there is in fact somebody from the United States, european countries, saudi arabia has been mentioned, who the saudis send and at what level at that state funeral. And again, whether there would be a diplomatic opening as a result of that. Risks also, because if you rand does now enter a period of domestic turmoil, whether they have to get their house in order because if iran. At a time when there is war in the region, that still raging conflict in gaza, with the possibility of that also spreading to the north in lebanon when hezbollah and iranian asset continues to be engaged. So question as to whether other countries in the region would take advantage of that disorder within iran during that time period. Disorder within iran during that time period disorder within iran during that time eriod. ~. ,. , time period. What does with it open for the united time period. What does with it open for the United States . Time period. What does with it open for the United States . Lets time period. What does with it open for the United States . Letsjust for the United States . Letsjust play out that scenario that you said there would be a state funeral, you 90, there would be a state funeral, you go, you pass on, you swap statements, etc, etc. What strategically possibly could the us want to get out of this . Its want to get out of this . Its important want to get out of this . Its important to want to get out of this . It� s important to remember that the United States and iran still do not have diplomatic relations. There has been a series of indirect negotiations ongoing between the Biden Administration on one hand and iran on the other. Both are stakeholders in the region. And at a time when we are seven, eight months into the war in gaza, both have looked to de escalate at moments of severe crisis. And it has been reported that 0man has played the role of a broker between these two. So the big question is whether this might present an opportunity for these indirect negotiations, these indirect talks between the Biden Administration and iran to move on to the level of public, perhaps a public engagement, should there be in fact a state funeral. Who public engagement, should there be in fact a state funeral. In fact a state funeral. Who would want that morecambe in fact a state funeral. Who would want that morecambe iran in fact a state funeral. Who would want that morecambe iran or in fact a state funeral. Who would want that morecambe iran or the i in fact a state funeral. Who would i want that morecambe iran or the us . Does iran need to reach out once again . You would want that more . There has been so much talk that the sanctions obviously have affected the aviation sector, irans aviation sector. Does iran need a pause . Well, that is a very good question. And i think the Biden Administration certainly has been keen, more keen to engage the iranians, if only for domestic considerations here in the United States, which is the president is leading up to elections in november, it is tightly contested. Does not want another war on his hands in the region that would necessarily suck the United States and force it to play a bigger role in the region, that is deeply unpopular. I think it might be the opposite calculation for the iranians. The Iranian Regime derives a great deal of its legitimacy by posturing as being anti american and anti western. Some perhaps an opening with the United States and a public opening with the United States would not be in its best interest, as it tries to get its house in order and perhaps plan for an upcoming election, should there be a need for a president ial election. Be a need for a president ial election be a need for a president ial election. � , ,. , be a need for a president ial election. � , ,. , election. Lets ust pick up on your oint election. Lets ust pick up on your point about election. Letsjust pick up on your point about the election. Letsjust pick up on your point about the threat election. Letsjust pick up on your point about the threat of election. Letsjust pick up on your point about the threat of regional| point about the threat of regional instability. Would this, or could it go as far as leaving some of those proxy stranded or is this really up to the Supreme Leader, it wouldnt touch them . Touch them . Yes, i would say the most interesting touch them . Yes, i would say the most interesting front touch them . Yes, i would say the most interesting front here touch them . Yes, i would say the most interesting front here is most interesting front here is lebanon. Now for eight months, hezbollah in lebanon, which is the most powerful, capable tenneco allies in the region, has been fighting an open war with israel. However, that has remained contained. And it has remained contained. And it has remained contained for several reasons, but one of them is iran does not want to see its chief ally spent in a war with israel right now. Hezbollah is the first line of defence should israel decide to attack the regime and its Nuclear Installations in iran proper. Now, the israelis have sensed that weakness, that vulnerability, but hezbollah does not want war, the iranians dont want hezbollah spent in war and have really pushed further into lebanon. So there is a question out there whether some in israel would want to take advantage of that moment and perhaps try and settle scores with hezbollah and undermine it once and for all. Hezbollah and undermine it once and forall. I hezbollah and undermine it once and for all. I think it is something we have to wait and see and see and watch out for. Kasra araabi is the director of research on the Iranian Revolutionary guard corps at us based group, united against nuclear iran. In terms of the reaction to the ongoing news, ithink in terms of the reaction to the ongoing news, i think the first thing that sticks out is the regimes pour handling of this crisis. And this is what will stick out for ayatollah ali khamenei, the 85 year old Supreme Leader, who will be viewing todays events as a test run for succession four when he dies. And when viewed in this light, the regimes handling of todays events are extremely problematic and concerning fort khamenei. In the past five years, Ayatollah Khamenei has spent an entire manifesto and has spent an entire manifesto and has produced an entire manifesto based on purifying, quite purifying, the regime, to ensure a smooth succession process. Quote purifying. He did this on the basis, the rationale that any Elite Mishandling of succession could result in the total collapse of the Islamic Republic because the overwhelming majority of the iranians have made it very clear they want regime change. So for khamenei � s perspective when he is looking at the ongoing events, when he is looking at this new Elite Handling of this crisis, i think this will be very concerning for him and he will ultimately view it as a test run for his succession. I wonder also, then, test run for his succession. I wonderalso, then, if you test run for his succession. I wonder also, then, if you could just remind us where are we with the Iranian Nuclear deal . The Nuclear Talks have Iranian Nuclear deal . The Nuclear Talks have been Iranian Nuclear deal . The Nuclear Talks have been ongoing Iranian Nuclear deal . The Nuclear Talks have been ongoing since. Iranian nuclear deal . The nuclear| talks have been ongoing since the Biden Administration took office and they have been going nowhere. Why . The regime in iran has become extremely ideological and has basically viewed a loss of us deterrence as an opportunity to expand on all fronts, to escalate on all fronts. Notjust on the nuclear portfolio, which they have increased enrichment on mass up to 60 and have even come as per the un watchdog, it has been confirmed that 83 enriched uranium particles have been found at nuclear sites. But not only on the Nuclear Front have they been escalating, they have been escalating in the region. Lets not forget the regime in iran is a bigger supporter of hamas, of hezbollah and in the past few weeks, even conducted unprecedented direct strikes against israel. Earlier, my colleague Nicky Schiller spoke to holly dagres. Holly is an iran analyst and a Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Councils middle east programs. Theres been reports that things arent looking well on the ground. They are of course rumours, but the fact that they have not been able to locate the helicopter. And tasnim news agency, which is irgc affiliated, had earlier reports that they had received a phone call from one of the entourage, saying that all is well on this helicopter. But we havent been able to find more information, and as time goes on and as it gets colder and it is night time there, i think that theres a lot of rumours and speculation that maybe the president has passed away. But again, these are purely speculation right now. If that was to happen, there is a system in place in iran that would come into play straightaway, wouldnt it . Yes, according to article 131 of the Islamic Republics constitution, the first Vice President currently Mohammad Mokhber would actually take the helm of the presidency. And in 50 days, there would be a president ial election. And just again, i need to keep stressing, we dont know the condition of the president or the Foreign Minister. How important is the president in the iranian system . If you could just outline the importance of him for viewers, who may not understand the politics of iran. Absolutely. Well, the Islamic Republic is led by a Supreme Leader, ayatollah ali khamenei, and i would say he is the Commander In Chief and makes all the main decisions in the country. His number two is the president currently, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. And so, in essence, it is the Supreme Leader that calls all the shots in the country. But i think whats noteworthy here is that khameneis 85 years old and theres been a lot of talk of succession in recent years, given that hes ailing with cancer. And so, one of the top contenders, actually, was widely believed that it would be Ebrahim Raisi, who is now missing on this helicopter, in this Helicopter Crash. So i think thats whats really noteworthy here, is that if he has indeed passed away, that would mean that potentially, the line of succession might have to change up and that would essentially change the trajectory of the Islamic Republic. So i think thats whats noteworthy here. And of course, if that was to happen, then that would have implications notjust for iran, but for the rest of the world, hence why the white house is saying that President Biden is keeping a close eye on events. Absolutely, and i think its also noteworthy that, you know, we should be talking about the mood on the ground. You said earlier that state medias, in essence, talking about thoughts and prayers. But iranians at least, from what im seeing on social media are happy at the news. This is a regime that has been marred by systemic corruption, mismanagement and repression for four and a half decades, and they do not like this regime. And we just saw with parliamentary elections, which had the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republics as year history, that iranians are disillusioned by the clerical establishment. And i track social media online, and ive been seeing a lot of happy memes and jokes. And more importantly, one of two daughters who lost their mother during the women, life, Freedom Uprising and was killed by Security Forces were actually celebrating with alcohol online at the possibility that raisi might have passed away. An update coming to us from the State News Agency that the search area has now been narrowed to two kilometres, but nothing found yet. Stay with us here on bbc news. Good evening. It really has been a weekend of contrast. Once again, weve had a few storms develop through the afternoon, fewer than we had yesterday, but 2a in the warm sunshine. And it should stay warm and dry to start for many of us. But it will turn cooler through the week, as wetter and windy conditions arrive. And of course, it hasnt been warm sunshine for all. Weve had stubborn sea fog around the north sea coast, some of the irish sea coast as well. So just a cool 12 today. And then that sea fog mist and low cloud will return back inland as we go through the night. So some fog again around tomorrow morning, particularly across eastern areas. Cooler, slightly fresher than it was last night. Could be some fog further west as well. So all in all, i think quite a grey and misty start for many of us on our monday morning. Once again, the fog and that low cloud retreats back to the coast and we should see less of it through monday than weve seen during the weekend. And the same goes for the irish sea coasts. But we could still have one or two showers, slow moving thunderstorms as we go through the afternoon, because once again, in that sunshine, temperatures will leap up to the high teens and low 20s. Theyre a little bit lower temperatures than theyve been today, just because itll be a chillier start for some of us. And then through monday evening and overnight, well probably pick up more mist and low cloud once again and perhaps a few more showers will come into eastern areas. And weve got this Weather System approaching to the west. So a slightly chillier night. Again, fours and fives actually as we start tuesday morning. Not really a frost level worry, but certainly chillier than it has been now. Tuesday looks like a slightly more unsettled day, more showers around, if you like, particularly for the west, northern ireland. As that Weather Front comes in, those showers turn thundery and also central and Northern Areas or, sorry, eastern and Northern Areas. That means that with a bit more cloud around, there might well be temperatures a little bit lower and one or two potentially around for the chelsea flower show. Of course, thats coming up through this week, a little bit drier towards the end of the week. The reason for the unsettled weather tuesday night into wednesday is this area of low pressure approaching for the east as well as Weather Fronts approaching from the west. All in all, it looks like itll turn wetter and windier for the midweek period. So a rather unsettled looking picture by that stage. Perhaps fewer showers friday and saturday, but still a rather unsettled looking picture, with temperatures closer to average. Welcome to newsday, im Steve Lai Reporting live from singapore. The headlines. Rescue teams in iran are searching in thick fog for a helicopter thats gone missing with president Ebrahim Raisi and the Foreign Minister on board. Taiwan readies itself for its president ial inauguration as tensions with china run high. Us rapper, sean diddy combs, apologises after video emerged of him attacking his ex girlfriend, cassie ventura. In football, Manchester City have become the first club to win the English Premier League four seasons in a row. Welcome to bbc news broadcasting to viewers in the uk and around the world. We begin in iran, where a major Search Operation is under way after a helicopter carrying irans president and its Foreign Minister crashed in the north west of the country in thick fog. President Ibrahim Raisi had been on a trip to irans border with azerbaijan. Inaugurating a new dam project, right here. Weve got an image of him on the ground at the site of the dam and the helicopter he was travelling in
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