Was weaker than we expected in the Fourth Quarter of last year but we think the First Quarter of this year has been a bit stronger, which will lead the level of Economic Activity broadly when we thought it would be. 12 months Consumer Price inflation fell from 4 in december to 3. 2 in march, its lowest rate since december 2021. March, its lowest rate since december2021. 0. I march, its lowest rate since december 2021. 0. 1 higher than we expected in february. The decline was spread across food, core goods and services. Energy prices have also continued to contribute negatively to the Headline Inflation rate. As a lower 0fgem cap on Household Energy prices come into effect in april, we expect Headline Inflation to drop further to a level very close to target in the next few months. But we then expected to edge up months. But we then expected to edge up a again. This absence of data surprises is an indication that we are now getting back to more normal times, at least compared to the highly unusual period we have been living through web a Global Pandemic and a major youre in europe war. So far, economies have adjusted to stand those risks. Global Supply Chains have held up Energy Prices have moderated. Charge to provide one illustration of how the outlook has become more predictable, at least in the near term. It shows the evolution of our six month Inflation Predictions and compares it with the out terms in the data, the blue line. Forsome out terms in the data, the blue line. For some time now, Inflation Outcomes have begun coming close to the near term projections. Telling to indications of deflation resistance, the picture is very much the same Force Top ServicePrice Inflation and wage growth have both been a bit higher than we expected in february. But it certainly gives us pause for thought. There were all squeeze beat them Ups And Downs in the data. There will always be Ups And Downs. In summary, on the data of late, there have been relatively few surprises. Little more strength on Inflation Persistence than expected but well within the normal margins of variance. More data will help us to extract the signal from the noise and help us to judge whether or not be we are on track to bring inflation down to the target. More data will help us assess if we are sufficiently confident in the process. Before our next meeting in june, we will have two full sets of data for Inflation Activity and the Labour Market and that will help us to making thatjudgment afresh. But in saying that, let me be clear. A change in Bank Rate Injune as neva ruled out or. I will turned the key focus judgments. Ruled out or. I will turned the key focusjudgments. In ruled out or. I will turned the key focus judgments. In our Current Assessment of the middle term outlook, the policy has been guided by three key focus judgments. These judgments on the risks around them are described in detail in the report that we have published today. The first keyjudgment is the gdp growth is expected to pick up during the forecast period, following modest weakness last year. The second is that demand will gradually fall short of supply, leading to a margin of economic slack. The third is that a second round effects in domestic price and wages will take longer to unwind in domestic price wages will take longer to unwind and needed to emerge. So i will briefly comment on each of these three key judgments. First on growth. We thing at the start of Monetary Policy will weigh less on Economic Growth in the next three years. We also expect Economic Growth to be supported by an increase in the population and buy some pick up in productivity. Fiscal policy will have some effect as well. And the continued unwind of global shocks energy and imported goods prices will boost real incomes. Second on demand and supply. We think that the current balance between them will gradually turn into excess supply. Despite picking up during the forecast period, demand growth is expected to remain weak evidence supply growth,. This also means that we expect unemployment to rise somewhat over the next couple of years but by less than we had been expecting previously. Third, on wages and prices. We think that headline Consumer Price inflation will edge up Consumer Price inflation will edge up again in the second half of this year. The negative contributions of Energy Prices will fade, while domestic Inflation Pressures are likely to persist for longer. That illustrates why we monitor indicators into may stick in domestic pressures closely. First, we nowjudge that a greater proportion of the effect of past increases in import prices has a ready passed through to Consumer Prices. This is not least because the rise import prices was associated with acute shortages of money product. What this means is that the pass right on inflation is easier to explain and that external pressures are likely to be somewhat weak over the first half of the forecast period. Second, it is now the mpc� s best collected judgment that the second round effects on domestic prices and wages war so slightly faster than we had previously assumed. The remains considerable uncertainty around this, mpc members do hold a range of views around it. Let me make one of the station. Second round effects on wages and prices emerge at part in response to falling real incomes as households and businesses understandably sought to resist an erosion of their real income and profits. But real incomes are now growing again. As the chart that is now up shows, aggregate real Income Growth is about as strong now as at any point in the decade. That is good news in itself and higher income should also help such second and inflationary pressures to ease. This takes me to the medium term outlook for inflation. Charge for shows the mpc likely. And this projection, projection increases from the 2 target to the Second Quarter this year to around 2. 5 by the turn of the year. Before falling back to 1. 9 in two years time and toi. 6 back to 1. 9 in two years time and to1. 6 in back to 1. 9 in two years time and to 1. 6 in three years. This projection reflects our view that we are making very Good Progress in returning inflation to the 2 target, that the restrictive Monetary Policy is stance is working. The projections suggest that inflation could fall below the Inflation Target towards the end of the forecast period. Let me turn to Monetary Policy. But the progress we have made, to make sure that inflation stays around the 2 target, inflation will never be too high or too low, it is likely that we will need to cut bank rates over the coming quarters. And make Monetary Policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period. Policy more so than currently priced into market rights. This will be consistent in ensuring that inflation does not fall noticeably below target. That judgment is one for the future. It really depends on how the data evolves and how that evolution affects our assessment but the rest from Inflation Persistence are receding. We have no preconceptions about how far is and how far we might cut bank rates. Instead, we will continue to look carefully to evidence that the outlook for inflation is consistent with the 2 target, given the decisions we have ready made. We will reach a decision on the appropriate level on bank rates based on the evidence at each meeting. Finally, it is bens Last Mpc Press Conference today. His last meeting will be injune. Today is his 40th press conference. His 52nd Monetary Policy report, and his 127th mpc meeting. These are impressive numbers. The numbers only tell us more part of the story. You have been an excellent colleague and we will miss you greatly and i will descend by noting that the fact that jurgen klopp has decided to step downjust as your term jurgen klopp has decided to step down just as your term expires is, jurgen klopp has decided to step downjust as your term expires is, i am told, entirely coincidental. With that. Dave, ben and i will be happy to take your questions and ben will be happy to reminisce, as you wish. Lets start with sound. The be happy to reminisce, as you wish. Lets start with sound. Lets start with sound. The new lanauuae lets start with sound. The new language that lets start with sound. The new language that you lets start with sound. The new language that you put lets start with sound. The new language that you put in lets start with sound. The new language that you put in the i lets start with sound. The new language that you put in the minutes of the language that you put in the minutes of the record language that you put in the minutes of the record of language that you put in the minutes of the record of the language that you put in the minutes of the record of the minutes of the record of the minutes underlines of the record of the minutes underlines the of the record of the minutes underlines the importance l of the record of the minutesl underlines the importance of of the record of the minutes underlines the importance of the upcoming underlines the importance of the upcoming data underlines the importance of the upcoming data releases. Underlines the importance of the upcoming data releases. Would. Underlines the importance of the i upcoming data releases. Would you feel comfortable upcoming data releases. Would you feel comfortable advocating upcoming data releases. Would you feel comfortable advocating as upcoming data releases. Would you| feel comfortable advocating as soon as the feel comfortable advocating as soon as the next feel comfortable advocating as soon as the next meeting feel comfortable advocating as soon as the next meeting if feel comfortable advocating as soon as the next meeting if the feel comfortable advocating as soon as the next meeting if the data feel comfortable advocating as soon as the next meeting if the data outl as the next meeting if the data out turns as the next meeting if the data out turns are as the next meeting if the data out turns are in as the next meeting if the data out turns are in line as the next meeting if the data out turns are in line with as the next meeting if the data out turns are in line with forecasts as the next meeting if the data out turns are in line with forecasts and| turns are in line with forecasts and a Question Turns are in line with forecasts and a question also turns are in line with forecasts and a question also for turns are in line with forecasts and a question also for dave, turns are in line with forecasts and a question also for dave, could turns are in line with forecasts andl a question also for dave, could you talk a a question also for dave, could you talk a hit a question also for dave, could you talk a bit about a question also for dave, could you talk a bit about how a question also for dave, could you talk a bit about how you a question also for dave, could you talk a bit about how you decided i talk a bit about how you decided that the talk a bit about how you decided that the immediate talk a bit about how you decided that the immediate cut talk a bit about how you decided that the immediate cut was that the immediate cut was necessary . That the immediate cut was necessary . You that the immediate cut was necessary . You are that the immediate cut was i necessary . You are effectively taking necessary . You are effectively taking the necessary . You are effectively taking the judgment necessary . You are effectively taking the judgment by necessary . You are effectively taking the judgment by the necessary . You are effectively. Taking the judgment by the bank necessary . You are effectively taking the judgment by the bank is inflicting taking the judgment by the bank is inflicting unnecessary taking the judgment by the bank is inflicting unnecessary damage taking the judgment by the bank is inflicting unnecessary damage on i taking the judgment by the bank is. Inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy by inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy by keeping inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy by Keeping Rates inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy by Keeping Rates at inflicting unnecessary damage on the economy by Keeping Rates at the economy by Keeping Rates at the current economy by Keeping Rates at the current level. Economy by Keeping Rates at the current level. Thank economy by Keeping Rates at the current level. Thank you. Economy by Keeping Rates at the current level. Thank you. I economy by Keeping Rates at the current level. Thank you. I chose my words, as current level. Thank you. I chose my words. As you current level. Thank you. I chose my words. As you can current level. Thank you. I chose my words, as you can imagine, current level. Thank you. I chose my words, as you can imagine, quite. Words, as you can imagine, quite carefully and saying that it is not ruled out. A thing come exactly as we forecast and what follows from that, the point i would make is that we added a sentence to their Monetary Policy statement in the last paragraph are not what says is that we will consider the releases that we will consider the releases that are coming up and i will stress this point, how they inform the assessments and the risks to Inflation Persistence and whether ourjudgment that those Inflation Persistence and whether our judgment that those risks Inflation Persistence and whether ourjudgment that those risks are receding, that is the language we use, and receding slightly faster than we had assumed. Suddenly speaking for myself, the data, we will take the data, even if the data is in line with what he forecast, we will have to approach a broader judgment. And howd we put that into the context in the view we have taken today . I want to be clear. June is not a Fait Accompli but each meeting is a new decision, we are genuinely evidence based but you have to put that evidence into context and that is what we will do. I think it is worth stressing, i am here i think it is worth stressing, i am here today i think it is worth stressing, i am here today along with andrew and ben to answer here today along with andrew and ben to answer questions about the mpc decision, to answer questions about the mpc decision, the forecast, wider developments in financial markets. Andrew developments in financial markets. Andrew hasjust developments in financial markets. Andrew has just emphasised that there andrew has just emphasised that there is andrew has just emphasised that there is a andrew has just emphasised that there is a range of views on the risks there is a range of views on the risks around Inflation Persistence and the risks around Inflation Persistence and the degree to which those have receded~ and the degree to which those have receded. That was central to my vote receded. That was central to my vote but receded. That was central to my vote but i receded. That was central to my vote. But i will have an opportunity to say vote. But i will have an opportunity to say more vote. But i will have an opportunity to say more about the underpinnings of my to say more about the underpinnings of my vote to say more about the underpinnings of my vote in the next few weeks. Ive of my vote in the next few weeks. We got of my vote in the next few weeks. Ive got speeches coming up so for now, ive got speeches coming up so for now. I ive got speeches coming up so for now. I am ive got speeches coming up so for now, i am afraid rather than sort of pick up now, i am afraid rather than sort of pick up on now, i am afraid rather than sort of pick up on the language you use, sam, pick up on the language you use, sam. I pick up on the language you use, sam. Iwiii pick up on the language you use, sam, i willjust flag the position and power 22 at the moment, that gives and power 22 at the moment, that gives you and power 22 at the moment, that gives you a and power 22 at the moment, that gives you a summary for now. Are you frustrated by gives you a summary for now. Are you frustrated by how gives you a summary for now. Are you frustrated by how the gives you a summary for now. Are you frustrated by how the market frustrated by how the Market Interpretation frustrated by how the Market Interpretation of frustrated by how the Market Interpretation of why frustrated by how the Market Interpretat