Voted, last time just one of them voted, last time just one of them voted for a cut in Interest Rates. If we start to see other members of that committee moving towards a cut, a cut later in the year becomes increasingly likely. We will also get detail from the Bank Of England about what they think they is happening to economy right now to stop your running at the detail there that the main concern for them is inflation. It has been sky high over recent months and it is now starting to come down. 3. 2 is where it currently is but it is still above the Bank Of England a target of 2 . What they will be looking out at what point will be inflation, thats a measure of how quickly prices are rising, at what point will that come in line with their forecast and therefore they can start to afford to cut Interest Rates. Because english Interest Rates, m are rather blunt tool that the Bank Of England has to try and encourage us to save rather than to spend. Cool the economy, Stop It Overheating and keep things in check. They will be looking at when things start to align, when they can start to cut Interest Rates because remember, high Interest Rates take money out of our pockets, they make our Mortgage Payments are more expensive, they make it harderfor business to invest, more expensive for business to invest, so it really is a Balancing Act between Keeping A Lid on inflation and not stifling any Economic Growth. Thats where the target is 2 , not too hot, not to old. They are keeping a close eye on that over the course of the next time, and well start to get detail from that nine Member Monetary Policy Committee on how they voted and what they think they will happen with the economy next. Ben. And what they think they will happen with the economy next. With the economy next. Ben, ust to remind our with the economy next. Ben, ust to remind our viewers with the economy next. Ben, ust to remind our viewers of t with the economy next. Ben, ust to remind our viewers of howh with the economy next. Ben, just to remind our viewers of how that remind our viewers of how that really does impact people across the uk, we do know that the Trade Body Uk, we do know that the Trade Body Uk finance, uk, we do know that the Trade Body Ukfinance, banking uk, we do know that the Trade Body Uk finance, banking body, says that 1. 6 million Mortgage Deals will expire in 2024, could you tell us more of how this will affect peoples daily lives . More of how this will affect peoples daily lives . Yes, you are riuht. Peoples daily lives . Yes, you are right the peoples daily lives . Yes, you are right. The first peoples daily lives . Yes, you are right. The first thing peoples daily lives . Yes, you are right. The first thing we peoples daily lives . Yes, you are right. The first thing we will peoples daily lives . Yes, you are right. The first thing we will see l right. The first thing we will see is the cost of mortgages. People who are coming off a fixed rate deals and you went for the numbers there, those are the ones that will feel it the most keenly. Especially if they are looking to remortgage, to fight are looking to remortgage, to fight a new fixed rate. You might not get a new fixed rate. You might not get a cheaper rate but at least you have the certainty about how much you will be paying out if your monthly income every month and you know exactly what that rate will be. Of course, despite in recent months and therefore people finding them a lot more than they were. They have spiked in recent months. Were not talking about a return to one of those record low awakes we saw in the wake of the financial crisis, the wake of the financial crisis, the cost of borrowing was artificially low, designed to put the economy on a Life Support Machine was not were not talking about a return to those rate anytime soon, werejust about a return to those rate anytime soon, were just talking about rates moderating from where they are right now. We have just moderating from where they are right now. We havejust spoken moderating from where they are right now. We have just spoken to some economists who have suggested have suggested that we might start to see rates at two or 3 , a little bit more noble, were not talking about the no. 10. 21. 5 that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. People will start to feel well worse off because they are paying more on things like mortgages you might find businesses say that they just cannot afford you might find businesses say that Theyjust Cannot afford to take out that loan to invest in a new machine or a new factory. Thats why it can be detrimental if the Bank Of England does not get this right. They have a lot of balls to juggle to make sure the economy does stay on that even keel. Its also worth remembering that it is not an easy job because a change in Interest Rates take at least six, seven, eight manston so we start filling it in our pockets. They are making decisions now that we will start to feel by the end of the year. At the same time, they are having to base a decision on things like inflation inflation, that is looking backwards, theyre looking at things that have already happened to the economy. They have based it on things that are already happening backpack make a Calculator Gambler is happening next. To make sure that they can set Interest Rates accordingly. That is why may be the Bank Of England has held off cutting just yet. The world forecast markets investors, economists, had initially at the start of the ebb and expecting the bank to start cutting rates by now but the economic picture is changing slightly and what we have seen in america is a similar thing. They are holding off cutting rates at the moment because of the economy and inflation is not coming down as quickly as they thought. Yes, rates are on hold right now in the uk but when we get the detail will get an indication of whether a rate cut is coming injune or may be august but most definitely by the end of the year. Ben. Or may be august but most definitely by the end of the year. By the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and by the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and we by the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and we will by the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and we will come by the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and we will come back i by the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and we will come back to | by the end of the year. Ben, stay with us and we will come back to bed right now lets go to doctor karen bonner who is a principal economist. Doctor good to have you, now, this decision was largely expected but what learnings have you drawn from this . ,. ,. , this . Yes, it outlined, it was exnected this . Yes, it outlined, it was expected that this . Yes, it outlined, it was expected that the this . Yes, it outlined, it was expected that the bank this . Yes, it outlined, it was expected that the bank of i this . Yes, it outlined, it was expected that the Bank Of England would hold Interest Rates at 5. 25 and i think that the backdrop to this is that inflation has been falling, it was 3. 2 when we got the march figures and it is expected to fall further in april. Potentially towards that 2 but that would be very much driven by the Energy Prices and the energy price cap. I guess from the get the figure for the following month, the main figures which will get injune may be will have a clearer picture. The Bank Of England is essentially saying that inflation is coming down but we are not quite sure at this point that they it is on a stable enough basis that they would be confident enough to cut, so it has been said, it is likely to be in the summer, potentially august before we will see the first cut. And, you know, it does take some time to work its way through so unfortunately, for consumers and households which have been very squeezed, it is looking like towards the end of the year, maybe next year, before we might start to see some of the effects of this. Effects of this. Doctor bonner, Lease Effects of this. Doctor bonner, please stay effects of this. Doctor bonner, please stay with effects of this. Doctor bonner, please stay with us effects of this. Doctor bonner, please stay with us we effects of this. Doctor bonner, please stay with us we will. Effects of this. Doctor bonner, l please stay with us we will come back to you but right now lets go to economics editor who is at the Bank Of England for us. Faisal, good to have you, it is an election year, its an important piece of news during an election year, what are your key takeaway is . So during an election year, what are your key takeaway is . During an election year, what are your key takeaway is . So weve got some detail. Your key takeaway is . So weve got some detail, obviously, your key takeaway is . So weve got some detail, obviously, the your key takeaway is . So weve got some detail, obviously, the result, | some detail, obviously, the result, the hold, that we have had, thats what you kind of expect that the vote was interesting. A 7 to vote so an extra vote for a cut. This is an incremental move towards a cut at some point. 7 two. We have some words from Andrew Bailey who says encouraging news on inflation, we think it will fall closer to our 2 target in the next couple of months but we need to see more evidence that Inflation Rates will stay low before we can cut Interest Rates. What you have is a move along the path towards rate cuts and i think they are eyeing the following notion, which is, before the next decision on a june 21, there are two sets of inflation figures, jobs and wages figures, and that gives a lot more information not about whether inflation is going to fall, we know its going to fall sharply, but whether that fall stays in place. And when they get that information, i thinkjune is a possibility, my reading between the lines, notjust with what were hearing from the bank villain but also from their new focus for the economy, is that perhaps august or september is when they expect things to go. We have one extra vote, we needed two or three extra votes to the ballot. The Direction Of Travel is deafening for a cut, we have is in a different Direction Of Travel in america, for example, where some members of their committee have responded to sticky inflation with actually maybe rates go inflation with actually maybe rates 9 up inflation with actually maybe rates go up in america, that has affected global markets, it has affected a domestic Mortgage Rates here, but they are not going down the road in they are not going down the road in the uk but there were definitely a cut at some point but it is slow progress towards that cat. We have also had some new forecast from the Bank Of England, remember they were criticised in an independent review that we had just a month ago, they think the economy is going to be a little stronger than expected. They think the pretty firmly now that tomorrow we will get official news that the uk has emerged from what was a shallow depression with a growth of 0. 4 over the first quarter. A little improvement pretty sluggish economy but better than expected. That rate cut still proving elusive but deftly where they want to be in the next few months. ,. ,. , they want to be in the next few months. ,. ,. ,. , ~ months. Part of the point you making there is that months. Part of the point you making there is that you months. Part of the point you making there is that you have months. Part of the point you making there is that you have said months. Part of the point you making there is that you have said it months. Part of the point you making there is that you have said it is there is that you have said it is incremental progress, essentially, that it incremental progress, essentially, thatitis incremental progress, essentially, that it is slow growth, what does that it is slow growth, what does that say about the way that perhaps world events have been affecting our economy given that this was not some huge boom at the pandemic and some of the challenges we have been facing . I of the challenges we have been facin . ~ , facing . I think the banks perspective facing . I think the banks perspective is facing . I think the banks perspective is much facing . I think the banks perspective is much of i facing . I think the banks i perspective is much of what facing . I think the banks perspective is much of what we are seeing reflects Global Factors and interestingly, they expect inflation, once it comes down to the 2 target set for the Bank Of England, that it will bump up a little bit because, although Energy Prices have come down because the prices have come down because the price cap has fallen, they do not expect further cuts are now. 0ver expect further cuts are now. Over the last couple of months global Energy Prices, they have not continued to fall, they have continued to fall, they have actually come up a little bit. If you like, that continuing good news on energy bills, or less bad news, you might put it, that wont endure and that then has an impact on the Inflation Rate going forward. So, the picture you get of is not of an economy on some posts recession rebound, its a pretty slowish growth, may be enough for the government im sure over the next few days claiming that the economy has turned a corner but it is not a rebound. That they may hope for in that they may hope for in terms of the next few months. That they may hope for in terms of the next few months. Of the next few months. Thank you for that analysis of the next few months. Thank you for that analysis and of the next few months. Thank you for that analysis and of of the next few months. Thank you for that analysis and of course, for that analysis and of course, there is plenty more from him and our colleagues on bbc news on our website, bbc news website and app we have a live page going to stop i do want to go back to our correspondence of ben thompson who is in the newsroom monitoring all of this for us. Now, ben, wejust heard there some detail about how this decision came about. Some of the signs that they are looking for. This is, of course, in election year, so what is it, for example, the tories are really hoping to see right now and what are they really hoping to see in the summer, as well . ,. ,. ,. , well . Some of the expectation about the timin well . Some of the expectation about the timing of well . Some of the expectation about the timing of this,. Well . Some of the expectation about the timing of this,. We well . Some of the expectation about the timing of this,. We should well . Some of the expectation about the timing of this,. We should be l the timing of this,. We should be really clear that the Bank Of England is independent and that was a change brought in by gordon brown and, therefore, immune to political influence about what the government of the day might want to happen to manage a policy they say that they have their targets and they will respond accordingly. Those targets are based on the economy and how despairing. If you are the conservatives right now, you are hoping that inflation starts to come down, inflation falling pretty sharply to make people clearer about what money they have in their pocket. At the same time, they are also keeping an eye on how the economy overall is faring so as faisal was telling us there, not. 5 of growth this year, 1 of growth in 2025, one would expect the government now would be trying to paint a picture of an economy that is on the mend. But, of course, the Real Question is whether we feel it in our pockets. Inflation is starting to fall gives us a bit more money in pockets but until Interest Rates start at four and our Mortgage Rates start at four and our Mortgage Rates come down, that of course remains a key problem. Coverage continuing here on bbc news. Moise. Continuing here on bbc news. Now, ben, when continuing here on bbc news. Now, ben. When we continuing here on bbc news. Now, ben, when we spoke continuing here on bbc news. Now, ben, when we spoke earlier continuing here on bbc news. Now, ben, when we spoke earlier when this newsjust broke, you ben, when we spoke earlier when this news just broke, you were saying that you wanted to know how this decision broke out between the nine member panel. Now that we know, there was one more person than last time who had voted for this decision, what is your take on what they say about the health of this economy . It they say about the health of this econom . ,. , they say about the health of this econom . ,. I, economy . It is really simple, there are nine members economy . It is really simple, there are nine members on economy . It is really simple, there are nine members on this economy . It is really simple, there | are nine members on this Monetary Policy committee, last time eight voted to keep rates on hold and one voted to keep rates on hold and one voted for a cut, this time seven voted for a cut, this time seven voted to keep