To slash federal government in washington, his opponents fear there will be a Vendetta Tour against enemies within washington and beyond. Which on previous form, would suggest europe will need to be on its guard. The headline in politico this morning, suggest it could be even worse than that. Their Political Team has been sounding out those planning for a trump second term. Their conclusion is that it could pose an existential threat to european unity on a whole range of issues, trade and tarrifs, energy, Climate Change and and security. Barbara moens is politicos chief eu correspondent she was a co author on this report. Welcome to the program. Paint a picture for me. What threads could donald trump pole in his own interests in a second term that might unravel the unity and brussels . I might unravel the unity and brussels . Brussels . I think the most existential brussels . I think the most existential one brussels . I think the most existential one is brussels . I think the most existential one is ukraine. | brussels . I think the most i existential one is ukraine. A brussels . I think the most existential one is ukraine. A Trump Presidency would mean for support toward ukraine if that us support would completely fall away that would completely fall away that would have major implications, Security Implications for ukraine itself but also towards a potential russian invasion towards baltic countries in the east of europe. So the eu will have to step up to make sure that it keeps its Deterrent Effect towards vladimir putin. Its unclear whether at this point its actually able to do that. On top of that, on top of the existential security question, what weve seen last time but the Trump Presidency was that trump was very good in trying to divide and conquer between different eu countries. By using Trade Tariffs on german cars, On French Champagne but also there is now a lot of leverage on energy. The eu is using a lot of lng from the us, if trump would pulled out a way that could also have a risk of effect towards the eu. We were re ortin effect towards the eu. We were reporting that effect towards the eu. We were reporting that the effect towards the eu. We were reporting that the eu effect towards the eu. We were reporting that the eu is effect towards the eu. We were reporting that the eu is heavily| reporting that the eu is heavily dependent on exports to the United States. If donald trump followed through on his threat to impose 10 on those goods that are coming in, what would that mean for the European Union . B5 what would that mean for the European Union . What would that mean for the European Union . As we saw it last time the us European Union . As we saw it last time the us and European Union . As we saw it last time the us and the European Union . As we saw it last time the us and the eu European Union . As we saw it last time the us and the eu are European Union . As we saw it last time the us and the eu are so time the us and the eu are so interlinked economically in their bilateral experts but also what it means for a Global International trade system. If we would have another Transatlantic Trade War and even worse than the last Trump Presidency that would have Major Economic impact on the eu and also political consequences. The we use values and multiple lateral trading system, this International Rules based order. If that falls away from the us side, especially in the context we have now with a concrete enemy with russia at the border, a china that is becoming more economically aggressive, that would pose major challenges towards the eu security economically and politically. At this point with the eu officials and diplomats that we talk to are afraid of in first instance and also preparing for. Last on the Trump Presidency came as a huge surprise. This time around everyone is already having it in the back of their minds. What were talking on economics security strategy, industrial strategy, and all those fields you feel that there is certain mention going for things that used to be impossible. Not because of the potential Trump Presidency looming the conversation is building up. Presidency looming the conversation is building um presidency looming the conversation is building un presidency looming the conversation is building lip is building up. Philip, its a good read, is building up. Philip, its a good read. Quite is building up. Philip, its a good read. Quite an is building up. Philip, its a good read, quite an extensive is building up. Philip, its a good read, quite an extensive report. Is building up. Philip, its a good. Read, quite an extensive report that clearly pulls from different sources. They are gearing up. It seems to echo with a Security Correspondent for the New York Times the same this week, he returned from brussels and picked up similar messages. I guess weve already seen some reaction in the way that the ukraine bill stalled. Suddenly it jump started everybody into action. How far do you think they would have to go to insulate themselves on trade, which is your expertise . If trade, which is your expertise . If there is an Incoming Trump administration and started trade war will impoverish everything singing everybody. Thatsjust a will impoverish everything singing everybody. Thats just a fact of it for the everybody. Thats just a fact of it for the impacts across the globe its shades of the 19305 during for the impacts across the globe it5 shades of the 19305 during the great it5 shades of the 19305 during the great depression. Thi5 it5 shades of the 19305 during the great depression. This would be a serious great depression. This would be a serious threat to the Global Economic context. In those circumstances my guess is, if they Circum5tance5 My Guess is, if they trade Circum5tance5 My Guess is, if they trade challenge i got the eu would han trade challenge i got the eu would hang together in response to that. The us hang together in response to that. The us has hang together in response to that. The us has always targeted It5 Retaliatory Tariff5 the us has always targeted it5 retaliatory tariffs on particular products. It needs to get the message to french chee5e5 are german car5 me55age to french chee5e5 are german cars or message to french chee5e5 are german cars or be message to french chee5e5 are german cars or be what it may. That wouldnt cars or be what it may. That wouldnt be new. But the scale of the threat wouldnt be new. But the scale of the threat would be. Maybe there was a bit of the threat would be. Maybe there was a bit of preparation with the brexit time where there was this huge threat time where there was this huge threat to time where there was this huge threat to the cohesion and interest of the threat to the cohesion and interest of the ell threat to the cohesion and interest of the eu. Much to the surprise of many of the eu. Much to the surprise of many Briti5h Politician5 the eu manage many Briti5h Politician5 the eu manage that through a very cohesive collective manage that through a very cohesive collective effort. Collective effort. When they hang toaether collective effort. When they hang together in collective effort. When they hang together in a collective effort. When they hang together in a crisis collective effort. When they hang together in a crisis and collective effort. When they hang together in a crisis and it collective effort. When they hang together in a crisis and it tends i collective effort. When they hang | together in a crisis and it tends to be a crisis you see the cohesion. Thats when europe does work best. With your expertise as a former ambassador to nato, the word is that he would push zelensky to see crime air and parts of the donbas is reported by the New York Post whats less clear is what his intentions would be towards nato and actually what he would do if putin said no to a peace deal. Irate what he would do if putin said no to a peace deal a peace deal. We wont know until then and hopefully a peace deal. We wont know until then and hopefully we a peace deal. We wont know until then and hopefully we will a peace deal. We wont know until then and hopefully we will never l then and hopefully we will never find out, then and hopefully we will never find out, by then and hopefully we will never find out, by the then and hopefully we will never find out, by the way. Then and hopefully we will never find out, by the way. If then and hopefully we will never find out, by the way. If we then and hopefully we will never find out, by the way. If we everl then and hopefully we will never i find out, by the way. If we ever get into this find out, by the way. If we ever get into this position find out, by the way. If we ever get into this position i find out, by the way. If we ever get into this position i do find out, by the way. If we ever get into this position i do think find out, by the way. If we ever get into this position i do think that into this position i do think that putin into this position i do think that putin will into this position i do think that putin will actually into this position i do think that putin will actually be into this position i do think that putin will actually be quite into this position i do think that. Putin will actually be quite happy to draw putin will actually be quite happy to draw the putin will actually be quite happy to draw the line putin will actually be quite happy to draw the line where putin will actually be quite happy to draw the line where he putin will actually be quite happy to draw the line where he is putin will actually be quite happy to draw the line where he is now| to draw the line where he is now because to draw the line where he is now because it to draw the line where he is now because it would to draw the line where he is now because it would just to draw the line where he is now because it would just be to draw the line where he is now because it would just be a temporary ceasefire because it would just be a temporary cease fire. What because it would just be a temporary cease fire. What he because it would just be a temporary cease fire. What he would because it would just be a temporary cease fire. What he would like because it would just be a temporary cease fire. What he would like to cease fire. What he would like to see cea5e fire. What he would like to see is cease fire. What he would like to see is the cease fire. What he would like to see is the west cease fire. What he would like to see is the west divided cea5e fire. What he would like to see is the west divided in see is the west divided in the united 5ee is the west divided in the United States see is the west divided in the United States to 5ee is the west divided in the United States to withdraw see is the west divided in the United States to withdraw as i see is the west divided in the United States to withdraw as their main United States to withdraw as their main guarantor United States to withdraw as their main guarantor of United States to withdraw as their main guarantor of national United States to withdraw as their. Main guarantor of national security. Donald main guarantor of national security. Donald trump main guarantor of national security. Donald trump is main guarantor of national security. Donald trump is perfect main guarantor of national security. Donald trump is perfect for main guarantor of national security. Donald trump is perfect for this donald trump is perfect for this because donald trump is perfect for this because he donald trump is perfect for this because he will donald trump is perfect for this because he will not donald trump is perfect for this because he will not be donald trump is perfect for this because he will not be the donald trump is perfect for thisj because he will not be the main guarantor because he will not be the main guarantor of because he will not be the main guarantor of european because he will not be the main guarantor of European Security, j because he will not be the main. Guarantor of European Security, to the extent guarantor of European Security, to the extent he guarantor of European Security, to the extent he will guarantor of European Security, to the extent he will continue guarantor of European Security, to the extent he will continue to guarantor of European Security, to the extent he will continue to be l the extent he will continue to be involved the extent he will continue to be involved in the extent he will continue to be involved in europe the extent he will continue to be involved in europe and the extent he will continue to be involved in europe and for the extent he will continue to be involved in europe and for a the extent he will continue to be| involved in europe and for a price that most involved in europe and for a price that most countries involved in europe and for a price that most countries will involved in europe and for a price that most countries will not involved in europe and for a price that most countries will not be i that most countries will not be willing that most countries will not be willing to that most countries will not be willing to pav that most countries will not be willing to pav he that most countries will not be willing to pay. He may that most countries will not be willing to pay. He may not that most countries will not be willing to pay. He may not undermine nato actively, willing to pay. He may not undermine nato actively, he willing to pay. He may not undermine nato actively, he may willing to pay. He may not undermine nato actively, he may not willing to pay. He may not undermine nato actively, he may not even nato actively, he may not even withdraw nato actively, he may not even withdraw from nato actively, he may not even withdraw from nato nato actively, he may not even withdraw from nato but nato actively, he may not even withdraw from nato but he nato actively, he may not even withdraw from nato but he is. Nato actively, he may not even withdraw from nato but he is going to make withdraw from nato but he is going to make sure withdraw from nato but he is going to make sure that withdraw from nato but he is going to make sure that the withdraw from nato but he is going to make sure that the united withdraw from nato but he is goingl to make sure that the United States i5 to make sure that the United States is not to make sure that the United States is not going to make sure that the United States is not going to to make sure that the United States is not going to be to make sure that the United States is not going to be part to make sure that the United States is not going to be part of to make sure that the United States is not going to be part of the is not going to be part of the european is not going to be part of the European Security is not going to be part of the European Security system. Is not going to be part of the i European Security system. That is not going to be part of the European Security system. That in and of European Security system. That in and of itself European Security system. That in and of itself will European Security system. That in and of itself will be European Security system. That in and of itself will be enough European Security system. That in and of itself will be enough for. And of itself will be enough for putin and of itself will be enough for putin to and of itself will be enough for putin to say, and of itself will be enough for putin to say, ok, and of itself will be enough for putin to say, ok, i and of itself will be enough for putin to say, ok, i will and of itself will be enough for putin to say, ok, i will draw. Putin to say, ok, i will draw the line where putin to say, ok, i will draw the line where it putin to say, ok, i will draw the line where it is putin to say, ok, i will draw the line where it is today putin to say, ok, i will draw the line where it is today b