in national insurance, average households are still likely to be worse off at the end of this year than they were five years ago. the institute for fiscal studies also says the budget did not tackle the long—term economic choices and challenges the country is facing. it accused both the conservative and labour parties of a conspiracy of silence in failing to address those challenges. our chief economics correspondent, dharsini david, is here. tell us more about what the institute for fiscal studies as saying. in institute for fiscal studies as sa in. , ., institute for fiscal studies as sa inc. , ., �* saying. in the run up to budget, it is u- to saying. in the run up to budget, it is up to treasury _ saying. in the run up to budget, it is up to treasury officials - saying. in the run up to budget, it is up to treasury officials to - saying. in the run up to budget, it is up to treasury officials to burn i is up to treasury officials to burn the midnight oil and get the details together and now it is the turn of the analysts to burn the midnight oil and pull it apart. the reminder that even after the tax cuts, a challenging few years, many have felt the pressure, it looks like we will be worse off at the end of this parliament than we were at the start to the tune of about £200 each and thatis to the tune of about £200 each and that is after inflation. it is against that backdrop some of the tax cuts are actually going to ease the pain somewhat. we had of course the pain somewhat. we had of course the cut in national insurance and also the extension for the child benefit threshold as well and that has been welcomed by the ih —— by the ifs. don't forget, for everyone winner there are losers. pensioners in particular could be hundreds of pounds worth of, they remind us, as the thresholds at which different rates of taxes on income, the fiscal drag we keep hearing about, they will remain frozen. as we learnt yesterday, if you put it all together, the proportion we pay over together, the proportion we pay over to the tax office, the tax burden, it is going to have risen by 4p for every pound between 2019 and dr 2029. what that means quite frankly as you will be spending over 37p for every pound on tax made an income. jeremy hunt you may recall told us yesterday he thinks he has put us in place for a future path for tax cuts. having said that, full johnston, the director of the ifs, he says he cannot foresee a drop backin he says he cannot foresee a drop back in tax burden to earlier levels in the course of his lifetime which you can imagine is a long time —— pauljohnstone. the trade—off means we have seen curbs on public spending growth as well, it could mean some cuts to services. because if you take out education, health, defence, the ifs says we could be looking at cuts, brace yourselves, £20 billion for other services by 2029. we about courts, social care? the government has not specified where the axe will fall ahead of the election, labour have not spelt out plans, it has meant some pretty stinging criticism.— plans, it has meant some pretty stinging criticism. thank you. what about the political— stinging criticism. thank you. what about the political fallout _ stinging criticism. thank you. what about the political fallout from - about the political fallout from yesterday's budget? the chancellor has been touring the studios, saying it makes the average worker better off, but labour say the government gave with one hand but took much more with the other. from westminster, our political correspondent leila nathoo. rishi sunak, the prime minister. applause the prime minister this morning out to sell his promises, yesterday's budget offered tax cuts to workers to put more money into pockets and try to stimulate growth in the economy. try to stimulate growth in the economy-— try to stimulate growth in the econom . ~ . ., ., ., ., economy. we have inflation down from 1196, down economy. we have inflation down from 1196. down to — economy. we have inflation down from 1196. down to 496. _ economy. we have inflation down from 1196, down to 496. wages _ economy. we have inflation down from 1196, down to 496. wages rising - economy. we have inflation down from 1196, down to 496. wages rising faster l 11%, down to 4%. wages rising faster than prices for several months. we have been able to cut people's taxes responsibly. everyone in work and self employed seen a tax cut of nine of your plans for an average person and work in 35 k, half has kicked in injanuary, the other in april, it shows our plan is working. the government — shows our plan is working. the government pinched two of labour's revenue ideas, abolishing tax breaks for wealthy people whose main home is elsewhere... labour have to tread carefully to work out where if they were in government they would find extra money. we were in government they would find extra money-— extra money. we will go through in an orderly fashion _ extra money. we will go through in an orderly fashion all— extra money. we will go through in an orderly fashion all of— extra money. we will go through in an orderly fashion all of the - an orderly fashion all of the numbers now, we will keep the commitment to the nhs because it is really important to get the waiting list down, but they will not be a single upfront commitment in our manifesto, but £46 billion unfunded commitment yesterday from the chancellor at the end of the budget to abolish national insurance, that is staggering. to abolish national insurance, that is staggering-— to abolish national insurance, that is staggering. labour are rehearsing their election _ is staggering. labour are rehearsing their election attacks _ is staggering. labour are rehearsing their election attacks on _ is staggering. labour are rehearsing their election attacks on the - their election attacks on the tories, keen to claim the mantle of economic responsibility, but difficulties lie ahead for whichever party forms the next government. britain is a country where taxes are going _ britain is a country where taxes are going up— britain is a country where taxes are going up rather than down, we have had big _ going up rather than down, we have had big taxes last year followed by tax cuts _ had big taxes last year followed by tax cuts this year and that will be followed — tax cuts this year and that will be followed in an unusual way by tax rises _ followed in an unusual way by tax rises that — followed in an unusual way by tax rises that have already been announced for after the next general election. _ announced for after the next general election, that is telling you something, that the fiscal difficulties the chancellors have been _ difficulties the chancellors have been wrestling with for the last few years _ been wrestling with for the last few years have — been wrestling with for the last few years have not gone away even though tax cuts _ years have not gone away even though tax cuts have arrived in the short term _ tax cuts have arrived in the short term. ~ , , ., tax cuts have arrived in the short term. ~ ,, ., term. miles behind in opinion polls, the conservatives _ term. miles behind in opinion polls, the conservatives hope _ term. miles behind in opinion polls, the conservatives hope the - term. miles behind in opinion polls, the conservatives hope the budget. the conservatives hope the budget will give people enough to feel good about and it will have shown a direction of travel. labour who are not opposing what has been announced will hope enough people still are —— still answer no to the question, do you feel better off after 14 years of tory government? who can be most trusted to manage the economy will be the central argument of the general action campaign when it eventually kicks off. leila nathoo, bbc news. and our chief political correspondent, henry zeffman, is in westminster now. the general election, whenever it is, was at a budget that pleased or disappointed tory party backbenchers? it disappointed tory party backbenchers?- disappointed tory party backbenchers? ., backbenchers? it went down ok with conservative — backbenchers? it went down ok with conservative mps, _ backbenchers? it went down ok with conservative mps, not _ backbenchers? it went down ok with conservative mps, not much - backbenchers? it went down ok with conservative mps, not much was - backbenchers? it went down ok with i conservative mps, not much was done that and not much better than that. a lot of conservative mps with an eye to political prospects were hoping for some sort of political game changing moment and i generally think they did not get that. although that may well be because of the old fact yesterday morning before the budget had been delivered, we knew the big ticket item, the 2% to national insurance, perhaps because he wanted to signal intention beyond that, it is the reason jeremy intention beyond that, it is the reasonjeremy hunt intention beyond that, it is the reason jeremy hunt today and also to reasonjeremy hunt today and also to an reason jeremy hunt today and also to an extent yesterday in the budget has been talking about going much further and at an unspecified point abolishing national insurance altogether. it is actually where a lot of the political energy is today even though it is not a policy, not really a pledge either, a sort of ambition. the labour party for their part have completely seized upon that, they think there is political opportunity for than there, talking about it being a bonanza unfunded tax cut of the level of those unveiled by liz truss in her mini budget in 2022. that is where a lot of the political argument will be for the next few weeks and months until we finally get the general election. , ., ~ until we finally get the general election. , ., ,, , ., until we finally get the general election. , . ~' , ., ., election. henry, thank you. in other news novv--- — the woman accused of the manslaughter of her newborn baby has said that she did nothing but show her love. constance marten has started giving evidence in her trial where she and her partner, mark gordon, face charges of manslaughter. the body of their child was found in a shed in an allotment in brighton last year. they both deny the charges. 0ur our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford joins us from the old bailey. bring us up to date. the trial has old bailey. bring us up to date. tue: trial has been old bailey. bring us up to date. tte: trial has been running old bailey. bring us up to date. "tts: trial has been running since january, weeks of evidence, today for the first time the jury heard from constance marten, talking quietly and with a well spoken accent, she was at times very emotional, crying when she sat mark gordon and she loved their kids more than anything in the world. she said a court decision to take the first four children away from them had been disgraceful. this trial is about the alleged manslaughter of their fifth child, about the alleged manslaughter of theirfifth child, baby about the alleged manslaughter of their fifth child, baby victoria, whose body was found in a shed in brighton last march. asked directly when whether she did anything to harm the baby, she said, no, i did nothing but show her love and that she had given her the best anyone could wish. asked about how she felt about her death, she said, it is not anything i will move on from, i felt guilty because she was in my arms. she said she was estranged from her family because of difficult events in her childhood and they disapproved of mark gordon. both her and mark gordon deny all charges. thank you very much. one of the film crew on the alec baldwin film where a woman was shot dead has been convicted of involuntary manslaughter. hannah gutierrez—reed was responsible for looking after weapons during the making of rust, a western. but she allowed live ammunition onto the set in new mexico, and during rehearsals, baldwin shot the film's cinematographer, halyna hutchins. 0ur north america correspondent, emma vardy, reports. this was the scene on a ranch in new mexico after a rehearsal for the western movie rust went terribly wrong. alec baldwin was the actor on set that pulled the trigger? alec baldwin? yes, sir. where's he at? a talented cinematographer, halyna hutchins, had been shot dead after the gun alec baldwin was rehearsing with fired a live round. the prosecution said the armourer on set, hannah gutierrez—reed, had mixed up dummy rounds meant to look like the real thing with live rounds that belonged to her personally, and that other live bullets had been found dotted around the set. they argued hannah gutierrez didn't carry out the right safety checks that would have detected the fact a live bullet had been mistakenly loaded into the gun. afterjust a few hours of deliberation, a jury found her guilty of involuntary manslaughter. we find the defendant, hannah gutierrez, guilty of involuntary manslaughter as charged in count one. what happened here at the bonanza creek ranch has now changed the approach to gun safety in the movie industry to try to make sure such a tragedy never happens again. while real guns are still used, increasingly directors are opting for digital effects in post—production to simulate gunfire. were you in the room when that lady, when someone was shot? i was holding the gun, yeah. 0k. alec baldwin is due to stand trial in july also accused of involuntary manslaughter. he claims he never pulled the trigger, but prosecutors will argue he, too, did not follow basic safety rules when handling the weapon. emma vardy, bbc news, new mexico. nationwide, the uk's largest building society, has reached an agreement to buy virgin money in a deal worth £2.9 billion. it would create one of the uk's largest mortgage and savings groups. nationwide said it would not make any material changes to virgin money's 7,300 employees in the near term, phasing out the brand over six years. the post office is not fit to run any compensation schemes for victims of the horizon scandal and should be removed, mps have warned. the business and trade committee said in a report it is a disgrace so little has been paid to ex—subpostmasters. it added that the post office's leadership is in disarray, after its chairman was sacked and it emerged its chief executive is being investigated. now, 15 years ago, clare wood was murdered in her home by her ex—boyfriend, george appleton. clare had ended their relationship after it became coercive, and she made a statement to the police, but she was never told appleton had a history of violence. well, in 2014, clare's law was introduced, allowing people to ask the police about a partner's criminal record. but now a bbc investigation has found some police forces are taking months to disclose crucial information, or even rejecting requests for it. caroline bilton reports. she was just so creative and bubbly and funny and... ..just very lively as a person. just very lively. maddy was ten years old when her mum was murdered. the head teacher came in and said, "oh, can you come with me?" and then she brought me into her office and my dad was there and he was crying. then he tells you, "your mum's gone, she's gone." that's like a complete innocence—shattering moment, really. like, things were just never the same after that. clare wood was 36 when she was brutally murdered by her ex—boyfriend at her home in salford. unbeknown to her, george appleton had a record of violence against women. i had so many momentsjust of pure rage, pure upset, pure devastation. somehow, through all their grief, this family found the strength to campaign for a scheme that would potentially save lives. the lad that killed my daughter had already done five years in prison for holding a young lady at knife point. the campaign was led by maddy�*s granddad, michael brown, and in 2014, clare's law was introduced. it would for the first time give people the opportunity to ask police for information about their partner's violent past. but ten years on, a bbc investigation has found that the scheme is not working as well as it should. surely just a standard police check doesn't take three weeks to come back. at this domestic abuse support group in barnsley, some women here were unaware it even existed. there's not enough information about clare's law. i didn't know what it stood for. i wouldn't have known. and i might have still been with him and god knows what would have happened. just needs to be out there more and make people more aware. over the past five years, there's been a 300% increase in applications, with over 45,000 requests made last year. but disclosure rates have fallen from 48% to 38%. and some forces took hundreds of days to respond when they're expected to respond within 28 days. in concept, this law is brilliant and i think when it works really well, it does what it needs to perfectly. but that's the thing, the execution is not always there. it's a scary thought that this poor execution could potentially result in loss of more lives or people being stuck in situations. the national police chiefs' council says it knows there is more to do to ensure potential victims receive a consistent service and it's working with forces to share best practice and support improvements. caroline bilton, bbc news. the time is 1:17pm. our top story this afternoon. 0ne leading think tank — the institute for fiscal studies — says despite the chancellor's budget measures, average household incomes are still likely to be lower than they were five years ago. still to come, sailing the seas on these ships, controlled hundreds of miles of away. coming up on bbc news, they'll be weighing in this afternoon for the heavyweight clash between anthonyjoshua and francis ngannou. we'll be hearing from both boxers ahead of their fight in saudi arabia tomorrow. some breaking news now on the red bull f1 team story surrounding its boss, christian horner. we've heard that the complainant who made allegations against him has been suspended. our sports news correspondent, laura scott, joins me now. laura, what more do we know? we have learned in the last half an hour that the complainant who made those allegations against christian horner was suspended from her role at red bull racing today. our understanding is it is linked to the outcome of the investigation carried outcome of the investigation carried out by an external barrister into the allegations she made against christian horner, who she worked without the formula 1 team. a red bull racing spokesperson has said to us the company cannot comment on this internal matter. last week, red bull announced the grievance against horner had been dismissed following what it called a rigorous investigation, but it made clear at that time that the complainant had the right of appeal. that wasn't the end of the matter because there was a leak of alleged test messages purporting to involve christian horner. —— text messages. that led to increased scrutiny with rivals of red bull calling for more transparency on the issue and partners of the team calling for clarity. horner has tried to maintain a business as usual approach to this, cutting a fine figure at the bahrain grand prix, appearing alongside his wife geri horner. he is due to speak later today ahead of the saudi arabia grand prix. today ahead of the saudi arabia grand prix— today ahead of the saudi arabia grand prix. . ., ., . ~' , ., grand prix. laura scott, thank you for the grand prix. laura scott, thank you forthe update. — grand prix. laura scott, thank you for the update, news _ grand prix. laura scott, thank you for the update, news story. - now, could the balance of the war in ukraine be gradually tilting in favour of russia? russian forces have made some small advances in the east of the country and captured the town of avdiivka and a string of villages. many ukrainians who live there are packing up and moving away. there are fears more settlements could follow. 0ur ukraine correspondent james waterhouse has been to meet families living on the front line and joins us now from kyiv. tell us about what you found. tit tell us about what you found. it is now widely _ tell us about what you found. tit 3 now widely accepted that europe is unable to fill the gap left by america while there is political disagreements there in terms of military aid, ammunition and machinery to help ukraine notjust fight but potentially win this war. instead it is holding up and russian forces are pushing on five areas of the 700 mile long front line. they are being tested most in the eastern donetsk region where you say, as you say, after the town of avdiivka was captured, russian forces are attacking elsewhere. we have been speaking to people about what might be over the horizon. eastern ukraine is being eroded. russian forces are approaching, taking village after village. and for the people living here, death or occupation feels imminent. valeriy and his grandson denys have taken up the offer of evacuation. their home in toretsk is in russia's sights. here, it's making its size and ammunition reserves count. ukrainian forces are going backwards. and with valeriy�*s town now constantly shelled, it's time to go. translation: i lived my life already. - but i need to save the little one. police take them to kostyantynivka, a place of relative safety, but increasingly less so. the city is used to being close to the battlefield, but its risk of being captured is growing. when ukraine liberated territory more than a year ago, there was hope. but the tide hasn'tjust changed, it's approaching. now there is fear that cities like kostyantynivka will be gradually destroyed and its people will be forced to flee. this is what russia does when it tries to take ukrainian territory, and this is what moscow still calls "liberation". for tetyana and her daughter, mariya, maybe notjesse the dog, strikes on the city leave them with a difficult choice. translation: we are tired all day. we have bad moods and panic attacks, constant depression. it's scary to go outside. so are you both going to leave? translation: i've already left twice. l what's the point? it's scary everywhere, everywhere. the whole country is on fire. while tetyana is staying, mariya is already sending her belongings west. today it's the tv taking the route she and her son eventually will. translation: i hope she will follow. my mum only has us and we only have her. in nearby kramatorsk train station the faint sounds of artillery provide a sobering reception, as well as a reason to leave. for all of the geopolitics, the donetsk region is at the coalface of russia's invasion and its people are feeling it more than ever. translation: a year ago, we still hoped we would . receive help from the west and that the counter—offensive would work. not any more. people used to believe, but not any more. ukraine hopes its east will once again be somewhere safe to live. but right now it's not clear what people will be returning to. james waterhouse, bbc news, the donetsk region. three 16—year—olds have been found guilty of killing another 16—year—old who was stabbed to death at a birthday party lastjune. mikey roynon from kingswood, near bristol, died from a stab wound to the back of his neck. danjohnson is at bristol crown court. this happened at a birthday party at a house in bath. mikey roynon, just 16 years old, had travelled there from bristol with a group of friends, and met another group from devizes in wiltshire. there was some sort of altercation on the decking out the back of the house. the court was told we may never understand the full circumstances, what started this confrontation, but mikey was stabbed in the back of the neck, despite the efforts of people who lived on that street, he could not be saved. the 316—year—olds who cannot be named because of their rage initially denied being part of this, but one of them then confessed he was responsible for stabbing my key but said he had done it under threat, as an act of self defence. the jury here this morning at bristol crown court has not accepted that version of events and has convicted that boy of murder and two others of manslaughter. the family of mikey roynon have been at the trial throughout and have been giving their reaction outside court in the last few minutes. i asked his mum hayley if she feared she wouldn't get the verdict that she wanted. yeah, of course. what does that mean? — it's never going to bring him back, and i've always said that, all the way through. it doesn't matter what result we get because he's still been taken from us. but it is a little bit ofjustice, yeah. it's a little bit of justice for our boy. there were around 70 children in total at the party and we are told many of them traumatised by what they saw that night. some didn't cooperate with the police and didn't give evidence. it has been a difficult case to piece together exactly what started the outbreak of violence that night. the 316—year—olds convicted here all chose not to give evidence in the trial. they will be sentenced on the 3rd of may. this is one of those cases that raises the question, why were so many people carrying knives, notjust were so many people carrying knives, not just at that party but were so many people carrying knives, notjust at that party but more generally, and how do we stop knife crime? g ., ., ,, crime? dan johnson reporting, thank ou. last month was the world's warmest february in modern times, the eu's climate service says, extending the run of monthly records to nine in a row. each month sincejune 2023 has seen new temperature highs for the time of year. temperatures are still being boosted by the pacific's el nino weather effect, but human—caused climate change is by far the main driver of the warmth. it sounds like a vision of the future — a fleet of remote—controlled ships sailing around the world with almost no—one on board. well, it may be happening sooner than we think. a new armada of ships has been going through sea trials in norway, as our science editor, rebecca morelle, reports. what you are looking at is a vision of the future. a ship that needs only a few people on board to sail it, and that can be controlled from anywhere in the world. the vessel is being put through its paces in a norwegian fjord. the company behind this, 0cean infinity, are building a fleet of 23 of these. they're being used for survey work for offshore wind farms and the oil and gas industry. this is definitely going to be a revolution. there's almost no part of our operation that's going to be untouched by our approach to making it more robotic. we fitted this vessel with extra sensors, extra servers, extra cabling, extra information systems. our ultimate vision is for these vessels to have as small a crew as possible. this ship is 78 metres long, and usually a vessel like this would have a crew of 40 or 50 people. but this is operating with just 16. instead, some of the jobs are being carried out by a crew more than 700 miles away. they are in a remote control centre, and the plan is to move more and more of the operations there, which in this case is in southampton. and this is that control room. everything you can see from on board the ship, you can see here on these screens. and as more and more of the vessels come into operation, all of these will start filling up. eventually even the captain could be here, in charge of multiple ships in oceans around the world. for now, though, it's tasks like watch keeping or launching underwater robots. it's exciting to know that there is an opportunity for me to work on shore and still be involved in exciting projects. you can do almost everything that you do on the vessel. you can move around, you can see, you have cameras, you can see the cameras here. some vessels are sailing with no—one on board at all. this boat is being tested in plymouth sound and its crew is in an office in aberdeen. could you show us how you can control it from here? could we do a figure of eight or something like that? yeah, let's do a figure of eight. so, now i'm moving forward, i'm sending a command going forward. the captain has precise control of the boat in real time. that looks pretty good to me! it's definitely an eight. it's a big change for the industry, but it means the international regulations that keep ships safe at sea will also need to change. there is little doubt that this is where shipping is heading. what we are specifically considering in this regard is the role of the master and officers on board. would you now consider a remote control centre operator being a master equivalent? and how this will all be regulated in the context of international law. 0n the dockside in norway, the next ship is being fitted out. the industry is gearing up for change, because the next wave of shipping is already here. rebecca morelle, bbc news. some news just some newsjust coming into us some news just coming into us that a former police officer has pleaded guilty to defrauding millions of pounds from members of a horse racing betting syndicate. michael stanley admitted to misusing his client's money between 2013 and 2019. the 67—year—old former police sergeant with the kent police was arrested in august 2019 and today pleaded guilty to five offences at sevenoaks magistrates�* court. the weather coming up in a moment, but before that... ..the reason why some of the nation�*s favourite breeds of dogs can�*t help but to pile on the pounds. scientists have found that a genetic mutation makes a quarter of all labradors and two thirds of flat—coated retrievers constantly hungry while burning fewer calories. this double—whammy effect means dog owners must pay special attention to keeping their pets slim. time for a look at the weather. here�*s chris fawkes. i will try not to make a dogs dinner of this. looking at the weather picture today, for the vast majority of the uk, dry