odd system, it is odd because it rewards them for keeping their money outside the uk, which we think is the opposite of what we should do. what has changed with that? what has changed with that? what has changed is that any weird concept of domicile has been abolished, there will be a simple definition based on how many years you have been resident in the uk, which is sensible, and a complete exemption from tax on the foreign assets of someone who has recently arrived in the uk, which is simpler, and i think federer. it will only last forfour years. for a last for four years. for a professional person arriving to the uk from abroad gives the four years in which they can sort their foreign affairs and learn to live in the uk, but it is much less useful for the very wealthy. we have got jake here who has written and, as a young person, soon to on slightly above average income, what are the longer term effects of the budget, will i be better off? i will come to the longer term peace in a second. over the course of the next year you will feel slightly better off because of that headline cut in national insurance. as a result of yesterday's cut in national insurance, £549 more in their pockets. we have really seen a cat in national issues this year, by the end of the year, about £1000 more there. that is the good news. the flip side is that tax thresholds for all of as are frozen, over the long term this is what is going to hit us, and, sadly, many of us over the longer term start to feel worse. we have all got a personal allowance, we can all earn up to £12,570, anything up to that amount we don't pay a penny of tax on. everything over that, you will pay basic rate income tax. as inflation pushes wages up, more of as i going to pay more in income tax, so we might feel, we got a cut from national insurance, but on the other hand you are paying more in income tax. overthe hand you are paying more in income tax. over the long term i am afraid you are going to feel a bit squeezed, like most of as. peter has asked, i would like to know how accurate have budget forecasts been in recent budgets? those forecasts come from the office for budget responsibility, it was set up back in 2010 to get a report on sustainability of finances, it has to be impartial. it is carried out work to assess just how accurate its forecasts have been. it shows over time that the borrowing forecasts tend to be more biased and less accurate over to, three, four years, the head, however they are more accurate than external forecast is for one year ahead. over the period since it was established, the uk forecast for growth, gdp, are relatively more biased upwards, with a tendency to overestimate output, and it also looks back at its forecasts during the pandemic, at the outset of the pandemic, and it said that while no forecast accurately predicted the huge hit to economies and the shock from covid, the obr was quicker than external forecasters to recognise the likely scale of the shock to growth, output. there wasn't any growth at all, was there, it was a massive contraction? add the massive growth of borrowing. but it underestimated the speed of the recovery. it is heartening to know that the independent forecaster does regularly check the accuracy of its forecasts. staying with you, you are talking to us about the obr, we have another question on them. elizabeth writes, why does the obr, according to the chancellor, said a 30% drop in employee national insurance will lead to an increase of 200,000 people in work? you might have heard national insurance is referred to by some as a tax on work. what the obr does is that it estimates the impact on people actually taking home more take—home pay. by reducing the amount of tax that people have to pay, take—home pay will rise, so it should act as an incentive to get more people into work. but also it is taken into account with all these figures, the effect of the child benefit taper, but also childcare expansion as well. taking all of these into consideration, it estimates that these measures could or should boost the labour supply by 300,000 people. so, incentives to get people back into work. but, fiscal drag. this is the frozen personal tax thresholds that will drag people into paying more income tax, and they forecast that this will offset these incentives by around one third. that is how they have come up with this 200,000 figure. but of course it is not an exact science. there are lots of other factors weighing on exact science. there are lots of otherfactors weighing on it. which is why the obr could never completely get its forecast right. there are factors such as, the long—term sick, nhs waiting times, that may also be a factor in stopping people returning to the labour market quite so quickly. let us go back to dan, one question, i also want to ask kevin about this, how has the budget helped all pensioners who don't pay national insurance? that is a question came in anonymously. dan? we are having problem with your sound, dan. kevin mrmac dan? we are having problem with your sound, dan. kevin mr mac similar question. i see nothing in the budget that will benefit retirees, have i missed something? m0. budget that will benefit retirees, have i missed something? no, you have i missed something? no, you have not missed _ have i missed something? no, you have not missed something. - have i missed something? no, you have not missed something. the . have i missed something? no, you i have not missed something. the key announcement in this budget was of course about national insurance, a cut in national insurance, and that is for 27 million employees, and the other man to benefit from that, and then for the self employed there was a cut also. some of the think—tanks reporting today looking at how pensioners have been affected. of course they don't get the benefits of that national shoes catch, they don't pay national insurance. but as has been mentioned, the effect of freezing of tax thresholds means more people will be paying more in income tax. the reason we are all talking about it is because it is so important. there are about 60% of pensioners who pay income tax. they are going to be feeling the effect of that. according to the institute for fiscal studies, they say that over the course since 2021, when frozen until 2027, they are going to be losing about £650 per year, pensioners, as a result of that. that is why there has been some chatter today from pension groups and pensioners themselves about how they feel as though they may have missed out. ministers say, we can't take this in isolation, there has been lots of support for pensioners, the state pension going up in april, and cost of living payment support for them also. i think we have your sound back, pensioners and how they stand to benefit and otherwise?— benefit and otherwise? national insurance. _ benefit and otherwise? national insurance, despite _ benefit and otherwise? national insurance, despite the - benefit and otherwise? national insurance, despite the myths i benefit and otherwise? national. insurance, despite the myths that some politicians and carriage, it is just a tax on income by another name, it is not clear why a pensioner should pay less tax on income than someone of working age, particularly the case given in the last 20 years we see the average pensioner having higher disposable income than the average working family. i can see that pensioners may feel that it is disappointing from perspective of the country it is a rational policy to be reducing national insurance. we have got a question here from len, he says, we have had two good for the workers on the receiving end, i would like to know how this affects nhs and pensions which are financed through this, at a time when the nhs is seriously underfunded, and we are told we are going to have to retire later and later due to a lack of funds? yes, you might remember that back in april 2022 the government increased national insurance, at the time it said it was to fund the nhs and social care. that was then reversed in november that year. then we have had these two successive cuts to national insurance coming into force this year. jeremy hunt says it is not going to affect current nhs spending. that this move has still provoked criticism from the likes of the national college of nursing which is pointed out that giving away billions in tax cuts in place of health spending is not welcome, given that the nhs has this multi—billion pound deficit at the moment, and they want to see more investment in staff. and they say, really they need a concerted effort to invest in staff. and that actually is 2p in the pound tax cat is not going to touch the sides, when it faces this recruitment and retention issue. and it also points out that these tax cuts, national insurance, was enough to cover student loans of nurses for the next four decades. during the budget yesterday, the chancellor did deadstock quite a lot about the nhs, particularly with in relation to this boost from introducing ai across systems. this ai productivity boost. but nursing leaders point out that while technology is of course transformative in health care, you still need enough staff around to know how to use it. while you were talking, dan, you look at you wanted to say something. tell us what your reaction is. it is a common belief that national insurance funds nhs, funds pensions. it doesn't. it'sjust insurance funds nhs, funds pensions. it doesn't. it's just tax, insurance funds nhs, funds pensions. it doesn't. it'sjust tax, it insurance funds nhs, funds pensions. it doesn't. it's just tax, it all goes together. there is no difference between cutting national insurance in katic income tax in terms of the effects on government finances, in terms of effect on nhs spending. none at all. this is still to do with national assurance. what is going to happen to the state pension if no national insurance contributions from workers are being made? i guess he is alluding to the idea that this might be phased out over time, that the chance hinted at. i have to wait until 67, she says, which i am aggrieved that, because i have worked since i am 17, i was well paid for 35 years plus. if it is abolished, how do people then qualify, especially of choosing not to work and contribute to a country, orfor people not to work and contribute to a country, or for people that do work, it is stressful enough, she says, having to wait until 67, i and the moderate majority people need their state pension, how will the state pension be funded? for those people listening, just to recap on the rules of state pensions, which are confusing for most of us, elizabeth mentioned 35 years, the basic rule is we need to have paid national insurance for 35 years to qualify for the full new state pension. from april, that is going to be £221 per week. we have to have, this contributory benefits, we have to have paid in, in order to qualify for the state pension. she also mentions, and i presume therefore she was born after 1960, that you have to be 67 years old now to get your state pension, that is going to inch up gradually to 68 years old. i would say, don't worry about the mechanics of funding your state pension. as our computers have said, it is all tax by another name, it goes into a common pot there. the chancellor is suggesting, and he said this yesterday, that he would like to think about gradually reducing down, possibly facing out, national insurance. he is desperate to get people back into work, he doesn't want to be seen to be overly taxing workers. however, there is this concept in this country that we have a contributory system, people will still have the attacks is used to fund a future state pension. so i would say to elizabeth, no one likes to feel that their state pension is being messed around with, but i wouldn't be alarmed by what you have heard yesterday, that state pension will still be there when you are 67 years old. i know it is longer than many of us would like to wait. kevin, a question, is the increase in child family allowance from 50,000, to 60,000, and 60,000 to 80,000, forany 50,000, to 60,000, and 60,000 to 80,000, for any parent, or worked out on both parents and come added together? it is out on both parents and come added touether? , . ., , ., ., together? it is unclear. it is to do with one parent, _ together? it is unclear. it is to do with one parent, the _ together? it is unclear. it is to do with one parent, the highest - together? it is unclear. it is to do i with one parent, the highest earning parent. the change in child benefit was one, perhaps the only, surprise, in yesterday's budget. there were two elements to it. the way it works, i will walk you through it, if you can have at the moment to parents earning, that family will get the entire amount of child benefit. you may have a single parent, or a single earner, earning more than that. but they may find that they don't get any child benefit. what the chancellor said is two different things. they are going to in the longer term try and move towards a system of household income, judging on household income, notjust one highest earning period. and they say that would come in by april 2026. and they say that would come in by april2026. in and they say that would come in by april 2026. in the meantime, the thresholds at which you child benefit effectively starts being taken away, that would go up from £50,000 per yearfor one parent, to £60,000 peryear. i £50,000 per yearfor one parent, to £60,000 per year. iwas £50,000 per yearfor one parent, to £60,000 per year. i was at that point that it starts to be taken away, pay some of it back through the tax system. then it will go entirely once you are earning £80,000 per year, entirely once you are earning £80,000 peryear, ratherthan £80,000 per year, rather than £60,000. £80,000 peryear, ratherthan £60,000. it will mean that more families will receive more child benefit, but some of the complexities will remain, and some of the perceived unfairness will remain, untilat least of the perceived unfairness will remain, until at least 2026. i think you will try to come in on this issue was mack yes, as kevin says the complexities of this are horrendous. but says the complexities of this are horrendous-_ says the complexities of this are horrendous. �* ., ., ., ., horrendous. but one point to add for our horrendous. but one point to add for your listeners. _ horrendous. but one point to add for your listeners, it _ horrendous. but one point to add for your listeners, it is _ horrendous. but one point to add for your listeners, it is really _ your listeners, it is really important who at the moment claims the child benefit. there is a tendency, that many staff in a relationship is done by the person who is currently in employment, but for child benefits we have been talking about the state pension, talking about the state pension, talking about the state pension, talking about making those contributions to fund a future pension, it is important that the not working parents, if that is applicable in your household, is that one claiming the child benefit, because that means you will be earning national insurance contributions, which will qualify you for a future state pension. it is something that is often overlooked, and the really important thing for families to find out about. question for dan. why can't the government to do a staggered percentage were the more you are in, the more you pay, rather than our one shoe fits all approach? i am assuming he is talking about general taxes, or national insurance, not entirely clear.— entirely clear. what you make of that question? _ entirely clear. what you make of that question? we _ entirely clear. what you make of that question? we do _ entirely clear. what you make of that question? we do have - entirely clear. what you make of that question? we do have that. j entirely clear. what you make of. that question? we do have that. we have the different rates. we have a 20%, 40%, 45%. they have the different rates. we have a 20%, a0%, 45%. they apply as you hit the threshold. every pound you earn above that threshold is taxed at a new higher rate. that is to be the system really works. o ne system really works. one specific question, the tax is not going up until october 2026, why not going up until october 2026, why not this year? there is to be a consultation to decide how this tax would work. it isn't clear exactly why it will take so long. jeremy hunt has said he wants to try and make this habit more expensive, stop smokers from taking this up, we know that vaping is epidemic levels among teenagers. you might think it is because tobacco companies have been trying tobacco companies have been trying to delay its implementation, but actually british american tobacco has called for it to be implemented sooner, and it said that it wants it brought in sooner than october 2026 because it wants to ensure that this veep tax will help tackle the solicit market. because what you are seeing is really high numbers of illegal and potentially harmful vaping products been brought into this country over the last three years. some of the big tobacco companies want to clamp down on that because they are all jostling companies want to clamp down on that because they are alljostling for position in the vaping market. the answer is, it is not clear why it is going to take that long. but certainly we do expect it to be coming into force, and actually some of the big tobacco companies want it to come in even sooner. our broader question we have had, one of the key search terms we have had on our websites, is when do these changes in the headlights take place? do we have a clear idea of where these changes happen? yes. where these changes happen? yes, somethin: where these changes happen? yes, something to _ where these changes happen? yes, something to look _ where these changes happen? yes, something to look out _ where these changes happen? ye: something to look out for on where these changes happen? 12: something to look out for on budget day, big announcements, it doesn't necessarily mean that things happen immediately. national insurance catch, that will be from april. remember, there was a cut to just three months ago, injanuary we saw national insurance cuts, that was the first time ever that we have seen national insurance cuts, now another one comes along three months later. but, some of the things on vaping, idea of british savings account, that might not come in for some time yet. various other consultations and so on to come. you have got to remember, in terms of your personalfinances, some have got to remember, in terms of your personal finances, some of the other thing that are happening very soon, for many people council tax will be going up in april. energy prices may be coming down. we already know about things like state pension going up, benefits going up in april as well. all of these things need to be taken into consideration in terms of your own personal finances. consideration in terms of your own personalfinances. remember, it is notjust all about personalfinances. remember, it is not just all about what is set personalfinances. remember, it is notjust all about what is set on budget day. it is always well worth looking through the small print. that is something we have been doing since the chancellor sat down, looking at exactly what is meant by these different policies. of course, there is politics as well. and we have got potentially a general election coming very soon. kevin mentioned there is the new british ice. we had questions people searching for the answers. how will this work, it is due to be on top of the 20,000 isa tax announced. we have a the 20,000 isa tax announced. 2 have a consultation launched into exactly how it is going to work. at the moment you have this allowance, you can save up to 20,000, part of isa, overand you can save up to 20,000, part of isa, over and above that, the idea is that you can save an extra £5,000, that would have to be in london listed companies. the idea behind this is to unleash the power of the retail investor, which, of course, we would like to see types of incentives to do just that. whether or not this is the best plan to do that, that is all going to come out in the consultation, and exactly how it would work. it would mean that the isa landscape gets more complex, rather than simpler. in many ways what you want to see is to encourage more people to invest, make it as simple as possible. particularly, we would like to see opportunities to encourage more women to invest. we have got a report out this month showing that only 16% of women actually hold a stocks and shares isa. they are falling behind. we would like to see more clarity on those types of measures. isas have become very complicated over the _ isas have become very complicated over the last couple of years, junior— over the last couple of years, junior isa. _ over the last couple of years, junior isa, lifetime isa, british isa~ _ junior isa, lifetime isa, british m the— junior isa, lifetime isa, british isa. the majority of people don't -et isa. the majority of people don't get anywhere near that £20,000 allowance that we all have every year to _ allowance that we all have every year to shield their investments from _ year to shield their investments from any— year to shield their investments from any tax. i also think, if you look_ from any tax. i also think, if you look at — from any tax. i also think, if you look at the — from any tax. i also think, if you look at the stock market over recent years. _ look at the stock market over recent years. the _ look at the stock market over recent years, the british market has lagged its counterparts like the us markets. i am very nervous about the chancellor _ markets. i am very nervous about the chancellor introducing this, and effectively mandating where we invest _ effectively mandating where we invest our money, in which region we invest— invest our money, in which region we invest our— invest our money, in which region we invest our money, in which region we invest our money, i think the extra complexity— invest our money, i think the extra complexity of it is, for most pennie. _ complexity of it is, for most people, going to be a bit of a turn-off, _ people, going to be a bit of a turn—off, sol people, going to be a bit of a turn—off, so i am not a fan of the british— turn—off, so i am not a fan of the british isa. — turn—off, so i am not a fan of the british isa, myself. people are asking whether they are eligible for things like child benefit, this is to be confusion about whether that applies to people, tell as how they find that out. earning up to £60,000, as we said earlier, _ earning up to £60,000, as we said earlier, that — earning up to £60,000, as we said earlier, that is the highest earning. _ earlier, that is the highest earning, earls will for child benefit _ earning, earls will for child benefit. yesterday the chancellor what he _ benefit. yesterday the chancellor what he has called that deeper amount, — what he has called that deeper amount, if one of you earns less than _ amount, if one of you earns less than £80,000 you will get a sliding scale. _ than £80,000 you will get a sliding scale, reduce child benefit. about £80,000, — scale, reduce child benefit. about £80,000, that is the highest earner, you get— £80,000, that is the highest earner, you get nothing. that said, you still have — you get nothing. that said, you still have to fill out the forms or you can — still have to fill out the forms or you can get fined. it is complicated. expect to get full child _ complicated. expect to get full child benefits at the highest earner is earning — child benefits at the highest earner is earning less than £60,000. from april _ is earning less than £60,000. from april it— is earning less than £60,000. from april. if you — is earning less than £60,000. from april. if you are earning less than £80,000, — april. if you are earning less than £80,000, you will get some reduce the child _ £80,000, you will get some reduce the child benefit. if you are earning _ the child benefit. if you are earning over £80,000, you will not -et earning over £80,000, you will not get child _ earning over £80,000, you will not get child benefit, but still think about, — get child benefit, but still think about, as — get child benefit, but still think about, as bonkers as it sounds, filling _ about, as bonkers as it sounds, filling out— about, as bonkers as it sounds, filling out the forms, and then saying — filling out the forms, and then saying you don't want the money, because _ saying you don't want the money, because of— saying you don't want the money, because of one of you is not working. _ because of one of you is not working, you will get those national insurance _ working, you will get those national insurance contributions. i am sorry if i insurance contributions. i am sorry if i made _ insurance contributions. i am sorry if i made that complicated. don't shoot _ if i made that complicated. don't shoot the — if i made that complicated. don't shoot the messenger. do some more reading _ shoot the messenger. do some more reading online, i would say. we had _ reading online, i would say. we had a _ reading online, i would say. we had a clip that hasjust come in from the prime minister, rishi sunak, on the budget. everyone recognises what we have been through as a country of the past couple of years, the pandemic, the war in ukraine, both of which necessitated the government stepping in, rightly, to support people, families, businesses, for difficult times. that has had an impact on things. people will recognise that. but direction of travel is now crystal clear. our plans are working. because of the approved and economic environment, because of the fact we have been able to get inflation down from 11% to 11%, mortgage rates, energy bills are falling, wages rising, we have lived to start cutting people taxes responsibly. the two tax cuts that have been a nights at the end of last year, and just now, means a tax cut worth around £900 for an average household at work, have it corrected in january, household at work, have it corrected injanuary, the other half in april. it shows our plans are working, i believe in a society behind wreckers rewarding, people can see the change are starting to happen, if we stick to the plant we can see that everyone has peace of mind, there is a brighterfuture everyone has peace of mind, there is a brighter future for everyone has peace of mind, there is a brighterfuture for them everyone has peace of mind, there is a brighter future for them and their family, and we can all have a new sense of pride in our country? highest burden of tax for 70 years? the country has been through hopefully once a century type of events with pandemic and war in ukraine. government stepped in with an extraordinary amount of support for the nhs, vaccine roulette, furlough, help of peoples energy bills. those were the right thing to do at the time. now, because the situation has improved, because our plan is working, we have got inflation down from 11% to 11%, wages rising faster than prices for several months, energy bills are coming down, we have been able to cut people's taxes responsibly. everyone in work and self employed seeing a tax cut worth around £900 for an average person in work on 305k half of that has eradicated in january, the other half in a few weeks, in april. it shows that our plan is working. i want a country where hard work is rewarded. if we stick to this plan people can have peace of mind it is a brighter future ahead. the prime minister speaking earlier. just like to thank our panel. thank you all for taking questions. thank you all for taking questions. thank you at all for sending in your questions. do stay with us here on bbc news. today at one, economists deliver their verdict on yesterday's budget. one leading think tank — the institute for fiscal studies — says, despite the chancellor's measures, average household incomes are still likely to be lower than they were five years ago. i'll be analysing what that think tank has said and finding out what it means for all of us. and i will be assessing the political impact of the budget. has it shifted the dial on the conservatives election chances? also this lunchtime, constance marten, the mother accused of killing her baby, tells a court she did nothing but show her love. the death of a film—maker on the set of an alec baldwin movie — a court convicts the woman who was supposed to be supervising weapons. a special report from the front line in eastern ukraine where ukrainian forces are on the back foot as russian troops make advances and civilians move out. now there is fear that cities like kostyantynivka will be gradually destroyed and its people will be forced to flea. and a vision of the future — remote—controlled ships sailing the seas. and coming up on bbc news, another batting collapse leaves england struggling in india. all out for 218 and india already catching up fast in the fifth and final test in dharamsala. good afternoon. a leading economic think tank has criticised yesterday's budget, saying that despite the 2p cut in national insurance,