good evening. the chancellor has been putting his final touches to his budget as he prepares to unveil it tomorrow — it could well be the last one before the general election. what is now expected is a 2p cut to national insurance — and another freeze on fuel duty. but could jeremy hunt go even further? our political editor chris mason is here with his thoughts — but before we hear from chris — our economics editor faisal islam has been weighing up how much room for manoevre the chancellor has. the chancellor is hoping to use his big red box moment tomorrow to declare a definitive economic turning point after years of crisis and shocks. certainly the path and forecast for inflation looks like that. look at this — inflation is falling back from its energy shock highs towards the bank of england target. on the other hand, it's a little tricky to talk about a turning point when as you see here, the economy just started shrinkng at the end of last year you can see — a shallow recession, but one nonetheless. and yet the bank of england is holding off immediate rate cuts. those are the numbers across the whole economy — but does this feel like a turning point in people s homes? one new lens on all this is looking at failed direct debits — a measure of people running out of cash in their bank accounts. injanuary overalli in 90 direct debits failed. the highest since this data was collected four years ago. breaking it down into energy and mortgage direct debits and you get the same pattern of a peak in failed direct debits recently. in pounds — these bills alone are together averaging an extra £310 per month on four years ago. and so that is the context for a national insurance cut worth say £40 a month for one worker. in terms of household finances, difficult to call a turning point here. so no wonder the focus from the chancellor on trying to give some of the tax rises back in terms of tax cuts. he is constrained however by this chart — the national debt. it's almost imperceptable but it is going down. meaning his room for manoeuvre to hit his self—imposed targets was only £13 billion a year and has actually fallen a little. so to fund another £10 billion 2p national insurance cut, which is what is expected, we expect a further squeeze on public spending at a time when councils and prisons and courts are looking stretched. and some extra tax on e—cigarettes, holidays homes and some flights. a big choice coming tomorrow at this budget with a plan for lower taxes and further public spending squeezes ahead of a general election, whenever that comes. joining me now is our political editor chris mason. the governments wants to talk about tax cuts tomorrow — tell us how high taxes are and why? this is the big political context we must remember when we see what happens tomorrow, there was the pandemic and the energy shock as a result of the war in ukraine and that means there was these colossal state interventions, like the fellow skin, so big you can see them from space in the generational context of government spending —— furlough scheme. you can see taxes from space as well, they are at a decade—long height, and that is the reality that will not go away whatever is announced tomorrow, however tax rises come about, they have come about by freezing the threshold at which we pay particular rates of tax so people end up paying more tax even though there has never been an announcement saying as much, it is rather stealthy, known by economists as fiscal drag, and millions of people can feel it and that is why right now people feel like they are paying a lot of tax because they are, at the point that public services actually feel squeezed. we will hear more from both of you in a moment. the leader of birmingham city council has apologised unreservedly to people living in the city after a series of cuts to local services was approved tonight as well as a 21% rise in council tax over the next two years. some councillors on the labour—led authority have called the move devastating. birmingham, the largest local authority in europe, has declared itself effectively bankrupt and needs to make £300 million in savings. our political correspondent alex forsyth reports. at this food bank in small heath, they know all about need. run by a local mosque, they're packing food parcels ahead of ramadan. we get approximately 30 to a0 food bank users, families, every week. most of them are referrals from schools and from social workers, and they're having to choose between heating, gas, electricity and food for their families. this is an area with real deprivation. as well as the food bank, the mosque helps with homelessness, domestic violence and runs youth services — things they say will be under more strain as they try to pick up the slack left by birmingham council cuts. it's the youth that we're really concerned about because this is a generational thing. if our youth today aren't getting what they need, what impact is that going to have on them when they go to apply for jobs? we really, really need to have a priority system for these deprived areas of birmingham. in the city centre, there was real anger outside as the council met and agreed extensive cuts across the board, while council tax will go up more than 20% over two years. inside, there was a blame game — fingers pointed at the council over failings with equal pay and a flawed it system and at the government. my task is to address - the problems that are unique to this council, problems - for which i apologise unreservedly. but i do have to ask — - who is going to apologise for the prolonged neglect- at national level that has brought so many councils to the brink? then the vote which approved a budget some here have called "devastating." so far, a handful of other councils have found themselves in the same extreme situation as birmingham, where they are effectively bankrupt. but many more are warning of financial pressures, saying funding isn't keeping up with the cost of services. councils in england were given some extra funding earlier this year. tomorrow, the chancellor's expected to warn them against wasteful spending, though many say money's already stretched thin. in selly oak, jennifer knows too well the consequences when council services are under pressure. she advocates for people with learning disabilities and has a child with special educational needs, an area of particular worry for her. ifeel as though birmingham council haven't properly looked after their money, so it's really, really important that the council really think about how it's going to affect people with disabilities, because i feel as though we're the invisible community, i feel as though we're last to be thought about. the concern�*s felt acutely here in birmingham, but it's echoed more widely across the board, with tomorrow's budget likely to see stretched councils asked to watch what they spend on rather than given rein to spend more. alex forsyth, bbc news. joining me now is our political editor chris mason and our economics editor faisal islam. what is the strategy likely to be from the chancellor? the economy needs lower _ from the chancellor? the economy needs lower taxes, _ from the chancellor? the economy needs lower taxes, a _ from the chancellor? the economy needs lower taxes, a bit _ from the chancellor? the economy needs lower taxes, a bit more - from the chancellor? the economy| needs lower taxes, a bit more than it needs more spending as we have seenin it needs more spending as we have seen in the report, at the lower taxes should come in the form of lower national insurance because that helps with the supply of hours worked which is a problem, the constraint in the economy, although we may get a longer term plan on taxes more generally, may be a down payment on the manifesto, but more generally, the biggest gamble is to call what we have a turning point in the economy, moment where we are still officially in a recession, albeit a mild recession, and at the same time when people feel at home and that the cost of living pressures, although they may be diminishing, they are very much still there. that is the broad vista. 15 still there. that is the broad vista. , , , ., still there. that is the broad vista. , , ., , ., still there. that is the broad vista. , , , ., , ., . vista. is this the big one before a aeneral vista. is this the big one before a general election? _ vista. is this the big one before a general election? probably. - vista. is this the big one before a general election? probably. the | general election? probably. the government _ general election? probably. the government is _ general election? probably. the government is running - general election? probably. the government is running out - general election? probably. the government is running out of. general election? probably. the government is running out of a l general election? probably. the i government is running out of a set piece _ government is running out of a set piece moments, we can say, where they can _ piece moments, we can say, where they can use — piece moments, we can say, where they can use the lever is on the stage _ they can use the lever is on the stage of— they can use the lever is on the stage of government to try and change — stage of government to try and change the political weather, and there _ change the political weather, and there are — change the political weather, and there are tory mps who worry that a nationat— there are tory mps who worry that a national insurance cut, another one atter— national insurance cut, another one after the _ national insurance cut, another one after the one of the autumn statement, they fear they might not -et statement, they fear they might not get political bank for the brilliance of bach and they would rather _ brilliance of bach and they would rather see an income tax cut that they— rather see an income tax cut that they think— rather see an income tax cut that they think is sexy and makes for a better— they think is sexy and makes for a better headline, but the catch is that would cost more money. as for labour, _ that would cost more money. as for labour, they— that would cost more money. as for labour, they will agree that these tax cuts, — labour, they will agree that these tax cuts, mass—market tax cuts on income — tax cuts, mass—market tax cuts on income are _ tax cuts, mass—market tax cuts on income are a — tax cuts, mass—market tax cuts on income are a good thing, and they will accept — income are a good thing, and they will accept them, but the consequence for them of doing that is that— consequence for them of doing that is that that leaves a hole in some of their— is that that leaves a hole in some of their spending plans, so a choice for them _ of their spending plans, so a choice for them just as there are choices for them just as there are choices for the _ for them just as there are choices for the government. labour's attack line, whatever happens, will be whatever— line, whatever happens, will be whatever the tax cuts amount to, they do _ whatever the tax cuts amount to, they do not — whatever the tax cuts amount to, they do not counteract the tax rises that you _ they do not counteract the tax rises that you and i were talking about 'ust that you and i were talking about just a _ that you and i were talking about just a couple of minutes ago. the both of you. _ just a couple of minutes ago. the both of you. we _ just a couple of minutes ago. tue: both of you, we will hear just a couple of minutes ago. tt9 both of you, we will hear plenty more from you tomorrow. thanks for joining us. we'll have full coverage of the budget tomorrow from newcastle — here's clive. tomorrow night i will be here in the north—east of england bringing you the very latest analysis and reaction to the chancellor's budget. that is on the bbc news at ten. dojoin us. in america, voting is now underway in 15 states and one territory in what is known as super tuesday. across the us, it's the biggest day for voters in the 2024 race for the white house and the one day in the political calendar where most people vote to decide who will be the main candidates for november s presidential election. historically, it gives us the clearest picture of how the election is shaping up. so far it looks like it'll be a repeat of four years ago with donald trump poised to win the republican nomination after tonight and president biden most likely on the democrat ticket. live now to our north america editor sarah smith. is donald trump poised to win? it certainly looks like it. i am at a polling station in virginia which is a state that he is expected to win and donna tom has predicted he will win all 15 states that have primaries today —— and donald trump has predicted. he has actually won other contest by one up to this point. he only has one challenge aloud, nikki haley, and there are signs she is preparing to pull out of the race and to drop her campaign and the moment she does that, donald trump would then become the presumptive nominee for the republican party. that is something we had predicted for weeks and months, so how much difference would actually make once it happens? it means that for him he can stop spending time and money campaigning against nikki haley and other rivals and he can train his fire onjoe biden who is almost certain to be the democratic nominee. by the end of this week you will feel as though we are already in the general election campaign, donald trump versusjoe biden once again, the same candidates we had in 2020, even though polling suggests american voters, nearly 70%, do not want that choice, they want to vote for new candidates, but the other thing is it will give donald trump more time to concentrate on his legal cases this later this month the first criminal trial begins in new york. sarah smith, thanks forjoining us. now, one of the states voting tonight is colorado, four years ago democrats won there strongly with 55% of the vote. president biden is focused on standing in november but what does he need to do to make sure he stays in the white house? emma vardy reports from colorado. clawing your way up the approval ratings. essential, if you want to persuade people to put you into the white house. but a problem forjoe biden is a lack of enthusiasm on his own side. cat meows i know. i think he's done a decent job as president. but i do feel like there's a lot of doubts about his leadership ability, considering his age. i do worry about that's the guy we've put up. is it enough to make you want to vote republican? i would maybe consider it if it was nikki haley. how worried do you think democrats are about losing to trump? i think they have already defeated themselves. away from the ballot boxes, a cat cafe offers a little more comfort. whatever your politics, voters on all sides here are unenthused about a trump versus biden rematch. i'm completely uninterested in politics. probablyjust because i lack enthusiasm about our democratic candidate. ijust don't think he has really accomplished much. and he's old. chiefs, or niners? two great quarterbacks... but if age is just a state of mind, it hasn't stopped america's oldest ever presidentjoining tiktok. gamer commercials. games? _ there's concerns about donald trump's age too, of course. but analysts say where it is really emerging as an electoral problem is for democrats. this is something a lot of democrats are worried about, just watching the polls that show it mostly to be a pretty close race, possibly with trump in a slight lead. and i think the real trouble for democrats is that they don't really know what to do about it. so even if they could come up with an alternative candidate, it's really not clear who that would be. today, the president had more confidence in the numbers... my poll numbers, the last five polls you guys don't report, i'm winning. five. five in a row. super tuesday has presented another problem. six states have added the option for democratic voters to choose a non—committed option on the ballot paper. it's a protest vote against biden's handling of the israel—gaza war. polling suggests the vast majority of people in the us have already made up their minds over who to vote for. so, turnout matters. and if you haven't excited your side to get up off the sofa and go and vote, that could make all the difference. with the election set to be decided by narrow margins, it may come down not to who votes, but who decides to stay at home with the cat. emma vardy, bbc news, colorado. a cabinet minister has paid damages to an academic after suggesting she had expressed sympathy for hamas — with the costs covered by taxpayers. michelle donelan — the secretary of state for science, innovation and technology retracted her comments — saying there was "no evidence" that professor kate sang was a hamas supporter. 0ur political correspondent damian grammaticasjoins us now from westminster. and explored in a series of events, a cabinet minister having to retract and pay damages to a senior scientist who had been appointed to a board which the minister was in the area the minister was responsible for. in here retraction, michelle donelan has said that she had published a letter that she had written to research england, quoting a tweet from professor kate sang, which appear to her to express disagreement with the government crackdown on support for hamas in the uk. she said she had thought that had suggested that professor kate sang expressed sympathy and support for hamas. she has had to withdraw that. she had been misled by a press release she had seen that had not quoted the full article. she has now had to pay damages. we understand that has come from the department because it was the minister herself who was sued, the secretary of state, he was being suedin secretary of state, he was being sued in her capacity. the lawyerfor professor sang said it was extraordinary that a minister should be guided by a lobby group to make allegations against a citizen without due diligence, and professor sang says that she is disturbed by what happened and she will give the damages to charity. president biden has warned israel that there are "no excuses" for not allowing more aid into gaza. the us military has released more footage tonight of another humanitarian aid drop in gaza — 60 bundles of food which they say provide more than 36,000 meals. the united nations says a quarter of the population is now close 0ur senior international correspondent 0rla guerin has sent this report from the israel egypt border. a warning — her report contains upsetting images. sometimes, war kills slowly and quietly. hunger, attacking the tiniest bodies. the al awda health center in rafah is filling up with malnourished infants. like ahmed, who has lost half his body weight during the war. children who survived the bombings may not survive famine. but here in israel, some blocking a border crossing today. family groups with their babes in arms, determined to stop aid that is desperately needed by families in gaza. they pushed past border police, as they do twice a week. among the protesters, yael sabrigo, who had to hide from hamas on october 7th and who has a loved one trapped in gaza. "this is my uncle, lior rudaeff," she says. "he's been a hostage for 151 days. he's got a heart condition. he hasn't had any medication for 151 days. why aren't the hostages getting humanitarian aid?" the commander says, "i'm opening the border today." "not today," says the protest organiser, reut ben ham. and, for a few hours, they halt the aid effort — limited as it is. this is turning into a confrontation now. the border police are threatening to drag the protesters away. they've been telling them they have to move, that they can't stay here. but the protesters are determined, they don't want a single aid truck to get through to gaza. you are a mother with a young baby in your arms. do you feel any concern for the plight of the mothers and children in gaza? because the un is warning they could starve without more aid. translation: they can get all the aid they want- _ translation: they can get all the aid they want. release _ translation: they can get all the aid they want. release the - translation: they can get all the | aid they want. release the hostages and they will get all the aid, everything, on condition that the hostages will be released. but the ordinary people of gaza aren't in a position to release the hostages, and yet you're blocking the aid that could save their lives? translation: i have real sympathy for the civilians _ translation: i have real sympathy for the civilians in _ translation: i have real sympathy for the civilians in gaza, _ translation: i have real sympathy for the civilians in gaza, but - translation: i have real sympathy for the civilians in gaza, but the - for the civilians in gaza, but the ones who are hurting them is hamas. any truck that goes by will not reach civilians. back in rafah, aid did not reach 12—year—old yazan al—kafarna, who had cerebral palsy and needed good nutrition. here's how he looked before the ravages of war. before his family had only scraps to feed him. his mother says he used to eat and move, and laugh, and play. yesterday, yazan died from malnutrition. 0rla guerin, bbc news, at the israeli border. an independent report has described a toxic environment taking hold in some swimming clubs in england. it says bullying and dangerous training practices have existed in some clubs for years. our sports editor dan roan reports. from criticism of a toxic environment and a culture of fear in some swimming clubs, to warnings over the excessive demands and pressure of a performance—first system. just some of the findings in a damning report into aquatic sports in england. the independent review claims bullying has gone on unchecked for years. with athletes, volunteers and parents fearing being victimised and ostracised. a former olympic medallist cassie patten is one of several swimmers whose allegations of bullying and emotional abuse led to the inquiry being commissioned two years ago. for me, you know, when you're growing up, yes, iwent on to become an olympic swimmer, but at the age of 13, 1a, i was still a child that was just enjoying swimming. and to have such a disproportionate amount of attention drawn to what i looked like, my body shape, etc, was really difficult. the report, which also said there was an urgent need to tackle racism within swimming, said allegations of bullying against coaches were often swept under the carpet by governing body swim england. in a statement, its chairman said... "we're sorry that the culture within aquatics has fallen short of what we strive for and that this has resulted in negative experiences within our community. we are committed to change." the report says that the issues it's highlighted pose a major threat to the future of the sport, and it makes 21 recommendations for change focusing on safeguarding welfare and culture. swim england are also urged to do more to make the sport more inclusive. the swim england report today is a timely reminder to us all in sport that welfare and athlete welfare has to remain top priority. i think it's also a useful reminder that athlete welfare is not an issue which isjust a matter for high performance sport. the research found that many coaches feared unfair allegations being made against them and struggled to apply the right level of pressure to athletes. and in a sporting year that will soon turn its attention to the paris games, there's now renewed scrutiny on whether winning may have come at the expense of welfare. dan roan, bbc news. the widow of a former ira prisoner who was murdered in 1992 because he was thought to be an informant says she forgives her husband's killers. claire dignam was speaking to the bbc in advance of a major police report into some of the most classified operations in the secret war between the british state and the ira. peter taylor reports. get yourselves off! freddie scappaticci was the embodiment of the so—called dirty war in northern ireland. the stories you make up! for almost 20 years, the bbc has been prevented from showing these pictures. don't take any more photos! i'm telling you now, because if you do, i'll come out and (bleep) do you. scappaticci, who died last year, went into hiding after being exposed as the army's most important agent, codenamed stakeknife. his cover was as the most feared interrogator in the ira's notorious internal security unit known as the nutting squad. operation kenova has linked him to the murder of 17 alleged informers. astonishingly, some of them were also working for british intelligence. their families have suffered for decades without getting answers to their questions. were they informers? were their confessions real? why weren't they rescued? and why weren't their killers brought to justice? johnny dignam, a former ira prisoner, was suspected of being a british spy working for special branch. he paid the penalty — a bullet in the back of the head. his body was dumped on a lonely country road. i personally can't see him working for the ruc. i couldn't believe it, knowing johnny and living with him. i interviewed claire dignam 30 years ago. he was my husband and he was a father of my children. i loved him with every bone in my body. today, the memories are still painful. i don't have a photograph of my husband, because the memory of that, itjust brings up a dark, dark time. all the emotions that i've buried deep down inside. considering all she has been through, claire ended her interview on an unexpected note. i actually forgive the people that killed my husband. you forgave them? i have to forgive to live. does that include the person or persons who killed him, who murdered him? i have to forgive. if i don't forgive, i'll shrivel up and die. operation kenova has taken more than seven years and cost, overall, almost £40 million. last week, the prosecution service in northern ireland announced no charges will be brought. friday's investigation report may be the family's last hope. peter taylor, bbc news. a new satellite has been launched that can track emissions of the gas methane. up to a third of global warming is thought to be caused by the gas. here's our climate editor, justin rowlatt. three, two, one. ignition. a falcon nine rocket blasts off from the california coast, carrying an important new tool to help tame climate change. it is a satellite designed to discern the telltale fingerprint of methane in the light reflected back from earth. rising methane emissions from human activities have been responsible for almost a third of climate change since the industrial revolution. methane is 80 times more powerful a warming gas than co2. but here's the thing — it doesn't stay in the atmosphere nearly as long, around 20 years, whereas co2 can hang around for centuries. what that means is cutting methane emissions now can rapidly slow global warming. the fossil fuel industry is the second biggest source of methane after agriculture, according to the environmental defense fund, the climate charity which developed methane sat. we know these omissions are fixable, at almost zero cost. if you don't know where where the emissions are happening, you cannot fix them. so if you have data on where the emissions are happening, you can fix them. often, fixing leaks can be as simple as mending a broken pipe. and methane is valuable, it is natural gas. so fixing leaks can sometimes even be profitable. the metane sat data will be publicly available. it will pinpoint leaks so owners of oil and gas infrastructure can fix them. regulators and the general public will be able to use the data to name and shame them if they don't. the methane sat team says its target is to help cut emissions from the fossil fuel sector by more than 40% in the coming years, proving technology can be a powerful weapon in the battle against climate change. justin rowlatt, bbc news. remember this — one of the most famous tv moments? the actor colin firth, emerging from a lake in the bbc�*s pride and prejudice. that was 1995. today, that famous white shirt was sold at auction — for a lot of money. £20,000 in fact — double what was expected — and with buyer's fees added it raised a total of £25,000 — all of which will go to charity. one very expensive white shirt. time for a look at the weather. here's stav danaos. good evening. it looks like we will start to see more in the way of sunshine over the next few days as high pressure continues to build in from the east. it will turn quite windy, though, by the latter part of the week, certainly friday looks quite blustery indeed. tomorrow, sunny spells, a few showers around, particularly around england and wales. there is the high pressure that will dominate across scandinavia. trying to keep the low pressure system at bay for now. it looks like we will have quite a bit of cloud across eastern parts of the country. this is where it did stay cloudy through the day today. further showers for the south—east, one or two spots of rain of rain. in the clearer skies will see a little bit of frost and fog developing, less cold further east because we have more of a breeze and cloud

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