minister manages to navigate it, but it is a marker of how tight things are that the climate minister graham stuart is on the way back from cop28 for the vote tonight, every single vote matters in the government because my eyes on this, they have all hands on deck having meetings, whips calling round trying to figure out whether they have the numbers, make sure they have the numbers. and you wouldn't normally expect to be at this stage in the second reading of a bill with a government that does have quite a significant majority. but it really is a mark of the times we are in and how controversial this legislation is within the conservative party that we are even having this conversation and the fact that right now, i can't give you a clear indication of which way it will go. give you a clear indication of which way it will 90-— way it will go. yes, you're talking about a tight _ way it will go. yes, you're talking about a tight vote, _ way it will go. yes, you're talking about a tight vote, but _ way it will go. yes, you're talking about a tight vote, but how - way it will go. yes, you're talking about a tight vote, but how many votes does the government need for this legislation to pass and when might we get a result? we would exect to might we get a result? we would expeet to get _ might we get a result? we would expeet to get a — might we get a result? we would expect to get a fault _ might we get a result? we would expect to get a fault and - might we get a result? we would expect to get a fault and a - might we get a result? we would expect to get a fault and a result| expect to get a fault and a result at 7:15pm tonight, i can definitely answer that, that is the straightforward bit —— a vote. the numbers depends slightly on what the opposition parties do. we would broadly expect them to vote against it, but there are nuances that mean the figures are slightly up in the air. roughly speaking, you would need about 30, 29, 30 conservative mps to actively vote against the bill in order to defeat the government. all 57 of them to abstain. ora government. all 57 of them to abstain. or a combination of those two that gets to a point by the government doesn't have a majority for its own legislation. but there are a number of independent mps in the mix, not entirely clear what all of them will do either. you are talking those kind of numbers and those kinds of numbers mps —— numbers of mps certainly are uncertain about this or suggesting they are not entirely happy with it. so there is definitely unhappiness to a degree that could lead to those kinds of numbers voting no or abstaining. but exactly which way it will fall and exactly how the maths plays out is really unclear.- plays out is really unclear. thank ou, our plays out is really unclear. thank you, our political— plays out is really unclear. thank you, our political correspondent | you, our political correspondent hannah miller. we can cross live now to the house of commons where the former immigration minister we understand is addressing the house and we can follow the debate. in light of the supreme court's judgment that the strasbourg court will impose further rule 39 interim measures. that is, after all, what bedevilled my right honourable friend, then —— my honourable friend's flight a year or so ago. it is a matter of sovereignty for our country that ministers acting on instructions of parliament do not allow those flights to be delayed. the provision in the bill today is sophistry. it is the express policy of the government that rule 39 injunctions are binding on to ignore them would be a breach of international law. —— and to ignore them. we are being asked to vote for a provision which it would be illegal to use. i do not want to be in the position that my right honourable friend the memberfor witham, whose determination i do not doubt. i don't want my right honourable friend the home secretary or my successors as immigration minister to be in that position. we as the house are giving them a hard deal. we are doing them a disservice if we allow the bill to continue in that way. they must have the full power of parliament to ignore those rule 39 injunctions and to get those flights in the air. there are other things i know others will contribute, not least my honourable friend the member for stone and the work he has done during out some of the other challenges with this bill. but i will close with this. this is not a bad bill. but it is not the best bill. i want this bill to work. the test of this policy is not, is it the strongest bill we've done, is it the strongest bill we've done, is it a good compromise? it is, will it work? that's all the public care about. they don't care about rwanda as a scheme. they care about stopping this votes. and we are sent here to do that for them. —— stopping the boats. i will never elevate contested notions of international law over the interests of my constituents. over vital national interests. like national security, like border security. this bill could be so much better. let's make it better. let's make it work. thank you very much, madam deputy speaker. i move the recent amendment that stands in my name and my honourable friend. before i start, i just want to remark on the tragic news that emerged that an asylum seeker aboard the bibby stockholm was found dead this morning. we don't know yet what the cause is and we sympathise for that person and everybody who loved them. but what i do know is our words and policies in this place have consequences and we should all reflect on that in the debate this afternoon. uk's approach to migration both legal and illegal has been nothing short of chaotic. poisonous rhetoric swelling around the plight of the's most vulnerable on the channel on a stormy night. i would like to take a moment to reflect upon how the tories have taken us to this perilous state. the former home secretary the honourable memberfor former home secretary the honourable member for maidenhead former home secretary the honourable memberfor maidenhead to former home secretary the honourable member for maidenhead to double down on labour's hostile environment policy in a speech 11 long years ago. she promised to make life really difficult for those who came to our shores, to deport first and to our shores, to deport first and to hear appeals later. the immigration act of 2014 and 2016 fostered a toxic culture of suspicion and disbelief in the home office, turning health staff, employers and landlords into border guards. this led to the windrush scandal and to live is fractured and still not put back together. go home fans and a highly skilled migrants 3225 scandal. people forcibly removed despite having done nothing wrong. the dehumanisation found by the brook house inquiry and the rampant spread of covid and scabies in napier barracks. they tightened up in napier barracks. they tightened up on the lorries and then we had small boats on the top got ever tougher. the cry of stop the boats came out on the nationally ce and borders act, the boats kept coming. the illegal migration is act didn't prove to be much of a deterrent either and today, we have the safety of veranda safety and immigration bill before us which the tories were claim will be the one to do it. —— the safety of rwanda. i am not entirely convinced, but the payment secretary told committee yesterday there is no evidence it will be a deterrent either. this is policy in a death spiral. tougher and tougher. turn the screw, threatening people with rendition flights to rwanda. it won't work because nothing else they have done before has worked. why? it doesn't deal with the reason people are coming here. people will continue to put themselves in small boats because they feel there is no alternative. they come to reunite with family because of historic ties and the english language. it is all too easy to dehumanise, to speak of scourges and swarms and hoards, to speak of those who try to come here with no papers, those who somehow want to cheat the system and skip the queue. as the mp with the highest immigration caseload in scotland, i see many of those people that ministers referred to at most are is weak in and week out and i have to look them in the eye are so many on the other side don't have to. i have 138 outstanding immigration cases of the home secretary would care to look at his inbox once in a while. so i will speak and said briefly about some of my constituents. i will call the first constituents mohammed. to protect his anonymity. he came here from sudan and got refugee status, he applied for his wife to come and after nine months waiting for that application, he came to my surgery in march this year. in april, the conflict recurred in sudan and his wife's family fled to egypt but because her paperwork was in the closed visa application centre, she couldn't go. in may, i was told the case was allocated to a decision maker, but the visa application centre in khartoum was still closed. by centre in khartoum was still closed. by october, the case was still with the decision—maker and there was no timescale for a decision i was told. on friday, mohammed came to my advice surgery to show me pictures of the gunshot wound to his wife's leg in the video footage of those that had been killed in the same incident. so i ask members opposite, what would they do if it was their wife? there is no safe and legal route from sudan and a family reunion is demonstrably not working in the face of an ongoing conflict. would they advise them to sit tight and wait for a year and a half or the appropriate paperwork or should she try and cross international borders by whichever mean she could to get to her husband and safety in glasgow? she's not wanting to skip the queue, shejust glasgow? she's not wanting to skip the queue, she just wants the paperwork done by the home office. or how about the constituents i will call mr and mrs or how about the constituents i will call mrand mrs r? or how about the constituents i will call mr and mrs r? unlucky enough to visit family in afghanistan with their five children when it fell. with significant difficulty and scant assistance from uk officials, they were eventually able to return to glasgow months later. yet they contact me regularly about the family members that they had had to leave behind, despite the much touted afghan schemes, there is no route for them. the relatives fled to pakistan and had to leave everything behind including their paperwork. the government of pakistan is now sending people back to afghanistan into the hands of the very taliban they fled from. so i ask members opposite again, what would they advise the family to do, to ask the taliban for a passport, wait for the taliban to knock on the door and wait for the pakistani government to arrest them or try another route? there is no accident that afghans make up the greatest number of people in small boats, and in the first nine months of this year, just 279 afghans came through official routes. for every person arriving through the afghan stream, 17 afghans were crossing the channel in a small boat. and we have heard this week about how slovakia meco is leaving those who served with the armed forces at risk of execution. -- arap. i armed forces at risk of execution. —— arap. i heard about what is happening in france and belgium and their response to small boat crossings. the french red cross said they worked with young unaccompanied asylum seekers they found trying to cross the channel to reach family members in the uk. try to convince them of the merits of a family reunion application, but the back lotus so long and the casework so slow that they will inevitably wait for many months. members in this place tend to forget the channel is at the beginning of somebody�*s journey, it is the end, it is the last leg. the channel holds little for the dangerous journeys many have made to get here, it must be tempting to know they are so near to safety. if a humanitarian travel document existed, those people could avoid the perilous journey in a leaky rubber dinghy and get the same journey many is do every year, they would not need to pay people smugglers at all. that would kill the business model at a stroke. it is the denial of this logical option thatis is the denial of this logical option that is placing people in danger. so what is the government offering instead? if you make that long and dangerous journey to our shores, your case will not be heard at all and you may be sent to rwanda. i think the member for giving way, she think the memberfor giving way, she makes an excellent speech and brings real humanity to this debate. is she aware that those people in calais trying to cross the channel are homeless, poor, desperate and often victims of war and human rights abuses and that walking away from international law and international conventions will not offer them any protection, it would offer protection, it would offer protection for any other desperate people in the world and will be a terrible message to the rest of the world that this country is turning its back on international law that we established in 1948? == its back on international law that we established in 1948?- its back on international law that we established in 1948? -- it will not offer protection. _ we established in 1948? -- it will not offer protection. he - we established in 1948? -- it will not offer protection. he makes i we established in 1948? -- it will| not offer protection. he makes an excellent point in this country is turning its back on its international obligations with this bill today. it is a pathetic excuse for a policy, a foghorn signalling to the far—right. it is too weak for some of the home secretary because my colleagues and too harsh for a few exceptional others. for all the talk of full fat versus semi—skimmed, it is more akin to milk which has come stagnant and sour, utterly repellent to decent people and best to be thrown away altogether for the safety of everybody. the legal experts i have heard from or appalled at the bill which cannot be declared as compliant. the home secretary claims he respects the decisions of the supreme court but he comes here today with the sole purpose of overturning them and to prevent them running on anything ever again. a government supplying human rights watch it suits them and instructing public bodies to do likewise is a deeply troubling place. liberty has stated that this billable time the hands of every court in the uk while also abandoning the uk's international commitments. barbie had for me to be concerned about the uk constitution or standing concerned about the uk constitution orstanding in concerned about the uk constitution or standing in world but i note the law society of scotland have questioned the rationale. the global implications are from this departure to the international rights order. this bill sends a devastating signal to the world. it also begs the question about the breaking of international law, something the rwandan government would accept. the minster has reportedly said without lawful behaviour by the uk, rwanda would not be able to continue with the economic develop and partnership. it is beneath contempt for the uk government to say, we are presenting a treaty with rwanda, marvel and how solid this treaty is, while telling us they want to breach the human rights conventions, the united nations convention against torture and other cruel treatment is

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