on whatsapp about decisions, that were made, the environment in which they were taken, and why the government was slow to respond. mrjohnson made the point that former prime ministers would not have survived this level scrutiny if whatsapp had been around at the time of the falklands or the iraq war. he played down the psychodrama that evolved in number ten, which was charactised in some of the earlier sessions, and the contents of some of the whatsapp messages. but i would make a distinction between the type of language used, and the decision making processes of the government, and what we got done. and i would submit that any powerful and effective government has, and i think of the thatcher government or the blair government, has a lot of challenging and competing characters whose views about each other might not be fit to print. but you get an awful lot done. most of the early session focused on the decisions taken at the beginning of the pandemic. in his evidence the former health secretary matt hancock told the inquiry he'd tried to raise the alarm as early as mrjohnson was asked if he'd overlooked the warnings he was getting. he said the government had collectively underestimated how fast the virus had already spread in the uk. he was shown a graph from march 12th, showing the pressure on the nhs if measures were taken compared with if they were not. both showed the nhs being overwhelmed and not having enough beds. he didn't recall a phone call from matt hancock on the weekend of march 14th telling him he needed to lock the country down. the first national lockdown was not announced until nine days later. in march and late february through to the sequence of npi and lockdowns, you can see that we were all... system failure ? ..collectively underestimating how fast it had already spread in the uk. we underestimated, we put the peak too late, the first peak too late, we thought it would be may orjune and that was totally wrong. i do not blame the scientists for that at all. but that was the feeling. itjust turned out to be wrong. our panel tonight the writer and broadcaster christina patterson, and steve hanke, professor of applied economics at thejohns hopkins university. welcome to you both, thank you for being with us. i don't know if you watched a lot of this today, but what did you learn that you did not already know? i what did you learn that you did not already know?— already know? i learned that boris johnson already know? i learned that boris johnson has _ already know? i learned that boris johnson has some _ already know? i learned that boris johnson has some extremely - johnson has some extremely expensive, to repair —— lawyers working with him to prepare him for today and it has been quite effective because the horrific performance he put on before the other committee when he kept losing his temper and being petulant. that borisjohnson was replaced by somebody who wanted to give an impression of gravitas and that he had reflected deeply on the events during the pandemic and reflected on his decisions. unfortunately there was a contradiction in that it started with what is meant to sound like a heartfelt apology interrupted ljy like a heartfelt apology interrupted by protesters who were then ejected from the room, but when he was actually asked about what he exactly did wrong, he kept saying well, nothing really. with hindsight we all make different decisions so i did not seem he was apologising for very much but he wanted to appear sober and grown—up and everything that he very often did not appear during the pandemic. there were some clear contradictions in what he said and it was very hard i think for him to defend certain things like his refusal to chair those cobra meetings at the beginning of the pandemic. it was evident to many of his people had to lock down. so how he could claim all this time that he did not realise it was serious, i do not know but i would say for him it was quite a good performance and i think performance is the word one should use. think performance is the word one should use-— think performance is the word one should use. ~ ,, ., , , should use. when you look at cases er caita should use. when you look at cases per capita from _ should use. when you look at cases per capita from the _ should use. when you look at cases per capita from the figures - should use. when you look at cases per capita from the figures your- per capita from the figures your teams have compiled, the uk is quite near the top of compatible countries so if you put alongside france, italy and germany, we are quite high up italy and germany, we are quite high up and we are not as bad as the united states. the question which needs answered by this inquiry is whether or not, i know it is a live debate, given the same circumstances at government should lock a country down again, what did you think of that? . ., . , ., down again, what did you think of that? _, . , ., ., ., down again, what did you think of that? _ s, s, a, that? the conclusion of our analysis ou refer that? the conclusion of our analysis you refer to — that? the conclusion of our analysis you refer to is _ that? the conclusion of our analysis you refer to is that _ that? the conclusion of our analysis you refer to is that they _ that? the conclusion of our analysis you refer to is that they should - that? the conclusion of our analysis you refer to is that they should not | you refer to is that they should not lockdown _ you refer to is that they should not lockdown but in the inquiry, unfortunately it is not going to dig into this _ unfortunately it is not going to dig into this issue to find out whether you should — into this issue to find out whether you should or should not. they are trying _ you should or should not. they are trying to _ you should or should not. they are trying to sweep the whole thing under— trying to sweep the whole thing under the rug as far as i can see. boris _ under the rug as far as i can see. borisjohnson said he was glad under the rug as far as i can see. boris johnson said he was glad they looked _ boris johnson said he was glad they locked down, he was for the lockdown, his conclusion was they did the _ lockdown, his conclusion was they did the right thing but hancock said they should have locked down a lot earlier _ they should have locked down a lot earlier 0ur— they should have locked down a lot earlier. our studies show they should — earlier. our studies show they should not have looked down at all. that is _ should not have looked down at all. that is the — should not have looked down at all. that is the issue. the number of deaths _ that is the issue. the number of deaths prevented by the lockdown, depending on exactly how you measure it in our— depending on exactly how you measure it in our analysis, about 1700 to 6500 _ it in our analysis, about 1700 to 6500 deaths in the uk and in an average — 6500 deaths in the uk and in an average flu season in the uk you are losing _ average flu season in the uk you are losing around 20,000 people. to put anything _ losing around 20,000 people. to put anything into context. so the lockdown had a tiny effect on mortality, lives saved but we know the damage that has been done not only to _ the damage that has been done not only to economy but also the new oecd_ only to economy but also the new oecd studies have come out what what it has done _ oecd studies have come out what what it has done to educational levels and so _ it has done to educational levels and so forth. by the way, you can give _ and so forth. by the way, you can give us _ and so forth. by the way, you can give us a — and so forth. by the way, you can give us a plug, this is our book, you can — give us a plug, this is our book, you can get _ give us a plug, this is our book, you can get it online free at the institute — you can get it online free at the institute for economic affairs. that is uuite institute for economic affairs. trust is quite interesting, christina, i was starting to ask myself today amid all the animals that was there in number ten whether this process has value? does it answer some of those fundamental questions like where lockdown worked? ——animus. has it served the purpose of telling us where to spend the money next time? it us where to spend the money next time? . . , us where to spend the money next time? . ., , ., , ., us where to spend the money next time? . ., , ., , ., time? it certainly does not seem to have done so _ time? it certainly does not seem to have done so so _ time? it certainly does not seem to have done so so far. _ time? it certainly does not seem to have done so so far. what - time? it certainly does not seem to have done so so far. what we - time? it certainly does not seem to have done so so far. what we knewj have done so so far. what we knew before, in the misogynistic culture of downing street and borisjohnson is famously bad at making decisions and ill—equipped to be minister during a pandemic and we knew that before and that has emerged from people working closely with them and what has emerged so far but i think the bigger question about whether lockdowns work, it is possible that will emerge later in the inquiry. i hope it does because unfortunately all the indications are that we can expect future pandemics. i think the government itself has rated the chance of a pandemic within the next five years at one in four which is not encouraging. obviously i have not encouraging. obviously i have not seen the analysis steve refers to but i am sceptical of that. my mother was swedish and sweden took a different approach as we know. taste different approach as we know. we can ut different approach as we know. we can put the swedish figures on the screen, this is deaths per 100,000 of the population and they have a lower death rates but there are so many other factors you put into this. we are a much more populated country. this. we are a much more populated count . , ., this. we are a much more populated count . , ,, , ., country. exactly. ithink it is not even necessarily _ country. exactly. ithink it is not even necessarily a _ country. exactly. ithink it is not even necessarily a question, - country. exactly. ithink it is not| even necessarily a question, the official figures are 230,000 or 240,000 deaths from covid. i will not argue with official figures and thatis not argue with official figures and that is what we are looking at. of course there are other factors to take into account like the effect on children and it has had a terrible effect on many children, the closure of schools. but at this point in the united kingdom, as it was, the key issueis united kingdom, as it was, the key issue is not necessarily hundreds of thousands of people going to die and that was one of them, i remember being in a green room before the broadcast when half a million people were predicted to die. people did not know what they were dealing with but the key issue was with the nhs be overwhelmed? no government could survive the pr disaster of the nhs being overwhelmed. in many ways the nhs was overwhelmed. i have read a number of accounts of what was going on in the nhs during the pandemic and many doctors and nurses would say that the nhs was overwhelmed and people did die alone in corridors in terrible circumstances but it wasn't seen to be overwhelmed and that was the key thing the government was trying to tackle at the time. christina put her finger on a trying to tackle at the time. christina put herfinger on a key christina put her finger on a key number, — christina put her finger on a key number, that is the 500,000 deaths that were _ number, that is the 500,000 deaths that were predicted to occur if they did not— that were predicted to occur if they did not lockdown. that is coming from _ did not lockdown. that is coming from the — did not lockdown. that is coming from the imperial college london modelling. these numbers that the imperial— modelling. these numbers that the imperial college put up, they have done _ imperial college put up, they have done this— imperial college put up, they have done this with mad cow, swine flu, you name — done this with mad cow, swine flu, you name it. — done this with mad cow, swine flu, you name it, the models are way off, they scare _ you name it, the models are way off, they scare the pants off anyone who sees those — they scare the pants off anyone who sees those numbers and they get fear in the _ sees those numbers and they get fear in the system so 10 downing street, whether— in the system so 10 downing street, whether it _ in the system so 10 downing street, whether it was chaotic or what was going _ whether it was chaotic or what was going on— whether it was chaotic or what was going on exactly, it is somewhat irrelevant — going on exactly, it is somewhat irrelevant. the key driver behind the old _ irrelevant. the key driver behind the old thing is the imperial college _ the old thing is the imperial college london fantasy numbers. —— the key— college london fantasy numbers. —— the key thing. that drives the train and that— the key thing. that drives the train and that is— the key thing. that drives the train and that is one thing the inquiry will not — and that is one thing the inquiry will not put their finger on, the cause _ will not put their finger on, the cause of— will not put their finger on, the cause of the thing is the imperial college _ cause of the thing is the imperial college london modelling. the modellina college london modelling. the modelling is — college london modelling. tie: modelling is very interesting. college london modelling. ti2 modelling is very interesting. you wonder if they will get to some of the stuff in the course of the inquiry. at the moment they are dealing with the politicians and the chronology of events. we will see, day one of two days of evidence. stay with us, you're watching bbc one news. let's look at some other stories making news. the metropolitan police have launched a murder inquiry after women were shot dead and two other people were wounded in east london. the 42—year—old woman died at the scene in hackney. a man aged 20 and a boy of 16 were taken to hospital. the government has unveiled reforms to ensure there will be no repeat of what it described as the most unforgivable forms of institutional obstruction faced by the families of the victims of the hillsborough football disaster. 97 liverpool fans died as a result of the disaster at the sheffield wednesday ground in 1989. the document discussed today was commissioned after an inquest jury concluded 96 fans were unlawfully killed because of police errors. journeys of thousands of rail passengers in england are being disrupted because of the latest strike by train drivers who are members of the aslef union. there is no service at all on south—eastern, and a limited timetable on south—western, southern and the gatwick express. you are live witih bbc news. let's return to the news that uk immigration minister robert jenrick has resigned. today the government unveiled emergency legislation that will enshrine in law a new international treaty it has signed with rwanda, who have been paid to process asylum claims on britain's behalf. that legislation is supposed to serve as a deterrent to those crossing the english channel in small boats, and it is designed to see off any future legal challenge. ina week in a week when the government was supposed to be proving it had a handle on immigration, it is not a good look when the immigration minister resigns?— good look when the immigration minister resigns? yes, very awkward when david cleverley _ minister resigns? yes, very awkward when david cleverley was _ minister resigns? yes, very awkward when david cleverley was speaking l minister resigns? yes, very awkward | when david cleverley was speaking in parliament and he was asked several times at the immigration minister were still in post and towards the end he had to admit he had in fact resigned. before we went live, i saw rishi sunak has written a damning letter to robertjenrick saying you have misunderstood the whole situation because a key part of this is the rwandans will not agree, i know suella braverman and robert jenrick and any superbright mp are very keen on posturing about this. super right. they claim they can break any single international law they have signed up to including the effects on the good friday agreement etc but rishi sunak has pointed out that the rwandans were the ones who said you cannot break international law in this process so it had to be very carefully drafted to ensure that the human rights act might be slightly affected, they can bypass aspects of that and the uk parliament can ignore certain edicts from the european court of human rights and the european convention on human rights but ultimately their hands are slightly tight. this is all irrelevant because unfortunately or fortunately, all irrelevant because unfortunately orfortunately, in my view, because i think the scheme is a mess and it was only ever an agreement. all this money that has been thrown at it is for 200 people. the agreement with rwanda is for 200 people. we had 740,000 net migration a year before last and they are spending all this money on a potential 200 people, it is crazy and they are doing an excellentjob in ensuring they will lose the next election and i cannot wait. it lose the next election and i cannot wait. . . , lose the next election and i cannot wait. . ., , ., wait. it certainly will not solve the situation _ wait. it certainly will not solve the situation in _ wait. it certainly will not solve the situation in the _ wait. it certainly will not solve the situation in the southern l wait. it certainly will not solve - the situation in the southern border of the united states. the prime minister said tonight the rwandan government said they would not accept the basic scheme of legislation which would be in breach of international law obligations, there would be no law in passing —— make no sense in passing a law to send people where we could not send them. joe biden has been asking separate to emigration for an extra $60 million for ukraine and that has stalled in congress as the republicans are more concerned with problems on their own border with record numbers coming through the border. yesterday in a letter to republican leadership, the white house budget leader said we are out of money and nearly out of time, failure to act quickly will kneecap ukraine on the battlefield, a message which was reinforced by president biden. congress has to pass the money for ukraine before the holiday period, i think it is stunning we have got to this place. republicans in congress are willing to give vladimir putin the greatest gift he could hope for and abandon our global leadership. we arejoined by and abandon our global leadership. we are joined by a and abandon our global leadership. we arejoined by a member of and abandon our global leadership. we are joined by a member of the ukrainian parliament. i want to reach you something, what is included is more a defence capabilities which is meant to defend ukraine against russian attacks, without that additional funding, these weapons will be among the last week and send. how acute is the last week and send. how acute is the problem and what would it mean if you and kyiv did not have your defences? it if you and kyiv did not have your defences?— if you and kyiv did not have your defences? ., ., ., �* ., defences? it would mean that britain would have a — defences? it would mean that britain would have a high _ defences? it would mean that britain would have a high chance _ defences? it would mean that britain would have a high chance to - defences? it would mean that britain would have a high chance to win. --| would have a high chance to win. —— vladimir putin. he hasjust announced the plans for 2024 which is to conscript more people and spent more than $100 billion of russian budget specifically onto the war in ukraine. so we know we will have to fight and we will have to get more people fighting him as well but how can we match the amount of money that he is investing if what we are doing right now is just trying to get on the previous political promises we have already received and by the end of the year we still do not have the confirmation for the military support from the united states, i think it is very, very concerning. we can see here how cold it has already become in ukraine and the level of the snow on the battlefield but if you think back to early 2022, just after the second part of the invasion, there were a lot of people who had to leave ukraine because there was no power under the so—called, if we are in a situation injanuary where there are no heir defences, are we looking at another movement of people towards european borders? the movement of people towards european borders? . ., . , ., ., , borders? the chances are really hiuh. on borders? the chances are really high- on a _ borders? the chances are really high. on a personal— borders? the chances are really high. on a personal note, - borders? the chances are really high. on a personal note, last l high. on a personal note, last winterfor me was high. on a personal note, last winter for me was going out high. on a personal note, last winterfor me was going out in high. on a personal note, last winter for me was going out in the snow and pouring diesel into diesel generators so my family can have electricity. we understand russia accumulated enormous amount of missiles and they will be using closer to the end of the year on two critical infrastructure so air defence systems is something we need absolutely badly, not only to defend our soldiers at the front but to defend our peaceful cities. if our allies in the democratic countries are behind on supply and ammunition to us, there are countries who are not behind on supplying ammunition to russia, it is iran and north korea and they are very open about that. ,, ., , korea and they are very open about that. ,, ._ , . ., , korea and they are very open about that. ,, , . ., , ., that. stay with us. what is often lost on this _ that. stay with us. what is often lost on this debate _ that. stay with us. what is often lost on this debate in _ that. stay with us. what is often lost on this debate in congress | that. stay with us. what is often | lost on this debate in congress is 60% of money sent to ukraine is spent on american contractors in the united states so it is a lot of important money to american states. it is, the military industrial complex as prize —— as president eisenhower referred to as alive and well. the defence contractors look at the share prices of those companies that are producing material that is being used not only in ukraine but also in the middle east. so that is one point. the thing that is intriguing is that we have the southern border getting tied in to a rather large foreign aid package. the border situation gets back to this robertjenrick point, chaos on the border in the uk, political chaos at least in the uk, political chaos at least in the uk as well as the united states, it is really all about the question of sovereignty as far as i am concerned. in thinking about this, sovereignty is in general society in europe what private property is in the civil society and i think when it comes to sovereignty either you run the show or the show runs you and right now, the show seems to be running things. the politicians, it is really very chaotic, the southern border situation. all you have to do is watch the nightly bbc news and look at what is going on in those little days coming across from france to the uk and you realise it is pretty chaotic there as well. this is the point suella braverman has made, tying the immigration issue to the ukraine issue is obviously problematic forjoe biden and for the uk camp. david cameron as they are in washington today so what sort of message as the british camp going to give to congress tomorrow when he arrives? daoid tomorrow when he arrives? david cameron is _ tomorrow when he arrives? david cameron is going _ tomorrow when he arrives? david cameron is going to _ tomorrow when he arrives? david cameron is going to say - tomorrow when he arrives? david cameron is going to say that - cameron is going to say that congress has to give the funding for ukraine. if congress does not give the funding for ukraine then i am afraid this war is lost. i am no military strategist but it is clear. russia and putin are happy to throw endless hundreds of thousands of young men into his meat grindr, he does not care how many lives are lost for his egotistical women for being peter the great or catherine the great or whoever is prancing in his head urging him to do this mad and terrible thing. but ukraine has tab support and that means economic support and it is one of the many tragedies at the moment is the situation in gaza, which of course is a terrible tragedy and is bringing enormous geopolitical instability to the world. but it has overshadowed _ instability to the world. but it has overshadowed it. _ instability to the world. but it has overshadowed it. we _ instability to the world. but it has overshadowed it. we are - instability to the world. but it has overshadowed it. we are tight - instability to the world. but it has overshadowed it. we are tight for time. president zelensky said tonight russia has significantly increased pressure on the front and is counting on the collapse of western unity in the early part of next year, do you worry about that? we have been worrying about that since day one of the full scale invasion. we are open about this and we say this is exactly what putin is trying to play and i am so upset that right now we see some parts of this plan is starting to work so the only way we should act as for ukrainian side to keep pushing and we keep fighting but we need our allies to stay strong as well, not only tactically but also strategically because we are getting into a very complicated time of this war where we need all the resources and all the support and we need the unit —— but we need a unity from all the free world. unit -- but we need a unity from all the free world.— the free world. good to talk to you and thank you _ the free world. good to talk to you and thank you for _ the free world. good to talk to you and thank you for your _ the free world. good to talk to you and thank you for your patience . and thank you for your patience tonight while we were getting to other stories. we are watching events in las vegas because we expect our police conference, you will know there is a life shooting on the campus and the shooter is now dead and we are waiting for reports on the story. hello there. while wednesday was a chilly day we had some sunshine especially towards the north and east. a lovely scene in perth and kinross but not sunny in perth and kinross but not sunny in the south and west with more rain pushing in from the south—west. we will see snow in the central lowlands on thursday morning which could be disruptive, keep an eye on this first thing on thursday and a touch of frost here but elsewhere temperature above freezing, certainly a frost free night. through thursday, further heavy rain moving on from the west, notice these green colours, quite intense rain for a these green colours, quite intense rainfora time these green colours, quite intense rain for a time and a windy day really for many of us. those winds picking up, especially around the irish sea coast, gales here, severe gales in the far north—east of scotland. through thursday we will see the milder air spread to all parts, temperatures higher, seven or eight celsius for many, double figures for ireland, wales and the south of england. rain could be disruptive, localised flooding on thursday, during the evening rain will spread away. high rainfall totals for some of the milder air fat —— with us but it will be a frost free night. into friday morning, temperatures 5—7 c. there is the milder air, you can see the colder conditions on the far north—east of scotland. south westerly winds bringing those milder conditions, less cold i should say, not exactly mild. but we do have an friday further pulses of rain moving in from the west. just west of northern ireland. some sunny spells especially towards the south—east of england during the day and many more will have temperatures in double figures. how about the weekend? it will remain unsettled, further bouts of rain coming in from the atlantic. this south—westerly air flow will move these weather fronts in. the weekend will not be completely wet. there will be sunny spells in between spells of rain. temperatures will stay in double figures for many but with rain at times. goodbye. hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. four republicans prepare to take to the stage for the fourth gop primary debate — but once again, the frontrunner — donald trump — will be missing from the line up. just want to keep you across the news from las vegas this evening, thatis news from las vegas this evening, that is the scene in the city centre. we are waiting for police to provide us at the preliminary update on a shooting at the university of nevada. fora on a shooting at the university of nevada. for a while this evening, the gunman was at large, but he has been contained and been shot dead by police. we don't have any information at the moment on the victims and we understand there are multiple victims at the university, so if and when the police appear, we will bring you a little bit of that. talking then about the debate tonight in a few hours' time in tuscaloosa alabama, there will be 4 republicans candidates on stage for the fourth republican primary debate, but once again it will go ahead without likely nominee taking part. the former president donald trump will not be on stage, instead he will spend the evening fundraising.