conference in which we were trying to dealwith... i had conference in which we were trying to deal with... i had to level with the public— to deal with... i had to level with the public and say, i am afraid a large _ the public and say, i am afraid a large number of people will lose their— large number of people will lose their loved ones before their time and it_ their loved ones before their time and it was— their loved ones before their time and it was a pretty grim press conference. and in that discussion, we were _ conference. and in that discussion, we were asked about the way through. and i think. _ we were asked about the way through. and i think, patrick said the idea was to— and i think, patrick said the idea was to flatten the curve, suppress the virus _ was to flatten the curve, suppress the virus with some measure of herd immunity— the virus with some measure of herd immunity by— the virus with some measure of herd immunity by september, would be a -ood immunity by september, would be a good outcome is what i think he said _ good outcome is what i think he said i_ good outcome is what i think he said. i think he also said something to the _ said. i think he also said something to the effect of, it might not be... you need — to the effect of, it might not be... you need to— to the effect of, it might not be... you need to suppress the curve but it might _ you need to suppress the curve but it might not — you need to suppress the curve but it might not be necessary to stop everybody — it might not be necessary to stop everybody or even desirable to stop everybody _ everybody or even desirable to stop everybody getting the virus, because again. _ everybody getting the virus, because again. you _ everybody getting the virus, because again, you might want some, i think, some _ again, you might want some, i think, some measure of herd immunity. that was the _ some measure of herd immunity. that was the moment when people pricked up was the moment when people pricked up their— was the moment when people pricked up their ears and said, are they trying— up their ears and said, are they trying to— up their ears and said, are they trying to allow this thing to pass through— trying to allow this thing to pass through the population unchecked? with a _ through the population unchecked? with a view to herd immunity, which was not _ with a view to herd immunity, which was not what we wanted and not what patrick— was not what we wanted and not what patrick meant. we had to do quite a lot of— patrick meant. we had to do quite a lot of work— patrick meant. we had to do quite a lot of work to clear it up. because the objective was to protect the nhs and save _ the objective was to protect the nhs and save lives, to save lives by protecting _ and save lives, to save lives by protecting the nhs. that was the objective — protecting the nhs. that was the objective. the strategy will to suppress the curve and keep the r below— suppress the curve and keep the r beiow one~ — suppress the curve and keep the r below one. use everything we could to do— below one. use everything we could to do that — below one. use everything we could to do that. herd immunity was going to do that. herd immunity was going to be, _ to do that. herd immunity was going to be, we _ to do that. herd immunity was going to be, we hoped a by—product of that campaign _ to be, we hoped a by—product of that campaign which might be very long and very— campaign which might be very long and very difficult. at campaign which might be very long and very difficult.— campaign which might be very long and very difficult. at the same time in cobra on _ and very difficult. at the same time in cobra on the _ and very difficult. at the same time in cobra on the 9th _ and very difficult. at the same time in cobra on the 9th of— and very difficult. at the same time in cobra on the 9th of march, - and very difficult. at the same time in cobra on the 9th of march, in i in cobra on the 9th of march, in sage on the 9th of march and cobra on the 12th of march, there were repeated references to the need to delay the peak of the virus as opposed to suppressing it entirely because of the risk of an un—coiled spring, of appointing back, the second way. if we could have that document back, 480 399 and 730 942, the 14th of march, probably page three of that document, 480 399. it appears this debate about herd immunity and the debate about an uncoiled spring had caused a considerable concern because at 7:39.42, he said it was when you said you were needing a proportion of the population to be protected. and then you said civil service need to grasp. what did you mean by that? i cannot say exactly what the civil servants — i cannot say exactly what the civil servants i— i cannot say exactly what the civil servants i was thinking of in that context — servants i was thinking of in that context i— servants i was thinking of in that context. i think probably what i mean _ context. i think probably what i mean is, — context. i think probably what i mean is, we have set a hare running by mistake. — mean is, we have set a hare running by mistake. i— mean is, we have set a hare running by mistake, i think patrick really did a _ by mistake, i think patrick really did a huge — by mistake, i think patrick really did a huge job to try and clear it up. did a huge job to try and clear it do we — did a huge job to try and clear it do we att— did a huge job to try and clear it up. we all need to set the public's mind _ up. we all need to set the public's mind at— up. we all need to set the public's mind at rest and explain what we are doing _ mind at rest and explain what we are doing it _ mind at rest and explain what we are doing it is _ mind at rest and explain what we are doing it is to— mind at rest and explain what we are doing. it is to protect the nhs and save the — doing. it is to protect the nhs and save life. ., , doing. it is to protect the nhs and save life. . , , ., , save life. that is the priority. 104915, the _ save life. that is the priority. 104915, the 15th _ save life. that is the priority. 104915, the 15th of _ save life. that is the priority. 104915, the 15th of march, i save life. that is the priority. i 104915, the 15th of march, page save life. that is the priority. - 104915, the 15th of march, page six of this document, you can be seen to be sane given what has happened in italy, we simply have no time. this was the 15th? _ italy, we simply have no time. this was the 15th? 104915. _ italy, we simply have no time. this was the 15th? 104915. there we are, the 15th— was the 15th? 104915. there we are, the 15th of— was the 15th? 104915. there we are, the 15th of march, we have no time. we have _ the 15th of march, we have no time. we have jumped forward, but that is sunday— we have jumped forward, but that is sunday the _ we have jumped forward, but that is sunday the 15th of march in the middle — sunday the 15th of march in the middle of all the debates you are having _ middle of all the debates you are having with your advisers. just middle of all the debates you are having with your advisers.- having with your advisers. just to finish off some _ having with your advisers. just to finish off some of _ having with your advisers. just to finish off some of the _ having with your advisers. just to finish off some of the points - having with your advisers. just to l finish off some of the points which you have addressed, in relation to behavioural fatigue and you been told the timing of implementations of interventions was vital, the evidence before the inquiry shows the sage meeting on the 13th of march, on the friday, you were not an attendee of sage, was told, and the minutes of the sage meeting make this plane, difficulty maintaining behaviours should not be taken as a reason to delay implementation. then warmer, your adviser, was present at that meeting and he was reporting back to number ten. where you told that in contrast to what you had been told about the need for timing and behaviouralfatigue been told about the need for timing and behavioural fatigue and so on, sage was in fact saying by the 13th, don't take that as a reason to delay implementation? in don't take that as a reason to delay implementation?— implementation? in effect, yes. in the sense that _ implementation? in effect, yes. in the sense that was... _ implementation? in effect, yes. in the sense that was. .. i _ implementation? in effect, yes. in the sense that was... i wasn't - implementation? in effect, yes. in the sense that was... i wasn't told | the sense that was... i wasn't told that particular detail about behavioural fatigue not being a reason — behavioural fatigue not being a reason to— behavioural fatigue not being a reason to delay implementation. but what i _ reason to delay implementation. but what i was _ reason to delay implementation. but what i was told is that we had new data, _ what i was told is that we had new data. we _ what i was told is that we had new data, we were at least, you know, five to _ data, we were at least, you know, five to seven — data, we were at least, you know, five to seven days further on, possibly— five to seven days further on, possibly more in the curve than we thought— possibly more in the curve than we thought we — possibly more in the curve than we thought we were and that the margin of manoeuvre that sage had seemed to think we _ of manoeuvre that sage had seemed to think we had and was offering to us on the _ think we had and was offering to us on the 12th. — think we had and was offering to us on the 12th, if you remember they say then— on the 12th, if you remember they say then there are four things you can do. _ say then there are four things you can do. self— say then there are four things you can do, self isolation for seven days— can do, self isolation for seven days if— can do, self isolation for seven days if you _ can do, self isolation for seven days if you have got any kind of symptoms, even that we could postpone — symptoms, even that we could postpone until the monday the 16th. then there is household isolation for 14— then there is household isolation for 14 days. and then a couple of more _ for 14 days. and then a couple of more measures, advice for the vulnerable _ more measures, advice for the vulnerable and then for those over 70. vulnerable and then for those over 70 in— vulnerable and then for those over 70 in those — vulnerable and then for those over 70. in those last three they say can actually— 70. in those last three they say can actually be — 70. in those last three they say can actually be put off for one to three weeks _ actually be put off for one to three weeks on — actually be put off for one to three weeks on the 12, then on the 13th that's— weeks on the 12, then on the 13th that's the — weeks on the 12, then on the 13th that's the key moment, really. that's— that's the key moment, really. that's when i get called back on the friday— that's when i get called back on the friday evening. i come back first thing _ friday evening. i come back first thing in — friday evening. i come back first thing in the morning and you know the rest _ thing in the morning and you know the rest. gn thing in the morning and you know the rest. ' ., . the rest. on the 12th of march there was a cobra _ the rest. on the 12th of march there was a cobra meeting, _ the rest. on the 12th of march there was a cobra meeting, which - the rest. on the 12th of march there was a cobra meeting, which you i was a cobra meeting, which you chaired 5209 and there is a page six, a graph... chaired 5209 and there is a page six. a graph---— six, a graph... yes. i remember lookin: six, a graph... yes. i remember looking at— six, a graph... yes. i remember looking at this. _ six, a graph... yes. i remember looking at this. this _ six, a graph... yes. i remember looking at this. this page - six, a graph... yes. i remember looking at this. this page is - looking at this. this page is entitled what _ looking at this. this page is entitled what would - looking at this. this page is entitled what would the - looking at this. this page is i entitled what would the effect looking at this. this page is - entitled what would the effect be in the nhs of interventions? what entitled what would the effect be in the nhs of interventions? what date is this again? — the nhs of interventions? what date is this again? the _ the nhs of interventions? what date is this again? the 12th _ the nhs of interventions? what date is this again? the 12th of _ the nhs of interventions? what date is this again? the 12th of march, - is this again? the 12th of march, the thursday- — is this again? the 12th of march, the thursday. on _ is this again? the 12th of march, the thursday. on the _ is this again? the 12th of march, the thursday. on the right-handj is this again? the 12th of march, - the thursday. on the right-hand side the thursday. 0n the right—hand side you can see the first graph, no measures, so no interventions. 0n the bottom right—hand corner, second graph, measures one and two are implemented. 0ne graph, measures one and two are implemented. one and two were seven—day isolation and number two was household isolation. if we could scroll back out again, please. in both graphs the red line, free able beds and the black line, total nhs beds and the black line, total nhs beds make plain that whatever you do, unmitigated or mitigated through measures one and two, the nhs will be massively overwhelmed. what did you make of that? i be massively overwhelmed. what did you make of that?— you make of that? i was bewildered, to be honest- _ you make of that? i was bewildered, to be honest. i— you make of that? i was bewildered, to be honest. i remember— you make of that? i was bewildered, to be honest. i remember looking i you make of that? i was bewildered, to be honest. i remember looking atj to be honest. i remember looking at that graph _ to be honest. i remember looking at that graph and thinking, in either case _ that graph and thinking, in either case we — that graph and thinking, in either case we are facing... an absolutely intoierabie — case we are facing... an absolutely intolerable situation. although i ciocked — intolerable situation. although i clocked it, ithought, well, there must _ clocked it, ithought, well, there must be — clocked it, ithought, well, there must be a — clocked it, ithought, well, there must be a reason why we are not being _ must be a reason why we are not being told — must be a reason why we are not being told to go urgently. maybe that reason is all the things that we discussed. sol that reason is all the things that we discussed. so i have to admit, then— we discussed. so i have to admit, then i_ we discussed. so i have to admit, then i say— we discussed. so i have to admit, then i say in— we discussed. so i have to admit, then i say in my statement, i think at this— then i say in my statement, i think at this point— then i say in my statement, i think at this point there is a certain amount— at this point there is a certain amount of— at this point there is a certain amount of incoherence in our thinking _ amount of incoherence in our thinking. because the graph makes it clear that _ thinking. because the graph makes it clear that things are going wrong. and that — clear that things are going wrong. and that is — clear that things are going wrong. and that is cleared up the following day. and that is cleared up the following da . ., �* , ., , and that is cleared up the following da. ., �* , day. you didn't yourself ask firstl , day. you didn't yourself ask firstly. what _ day. you didn't yourself ask firstly, what can _ day. you didn't yourself ask firstly, what can be - day. you didn't yourself ask firstly, what can be done i day. you didn't yourself ask firstly, what can be done to j day. you didn't yourself ask - firstly, what can be done to bring the blue part of the chart below the black line, why are we talking in terms of these modest measures, which may or may not be imposed this week. we have got to bring the blue part below the lines... i week. we have got to bring the blue part below the lines. . ._ part below the lines... i didn't. secondly. _ part below the lines... i didn't. secondly. why _ part below the lines... i didn't. secondly, why didn't _ part below the lines... i didn't. secondly, why didn't you - part below the lines... i didn't. secondly, why didn't you ask, l part below the lines... i didn't. i secondly, why didn't you ask, why are you presenting me with this and at the same time, we mustn't go to early with interventions? i am afraid, listening _ early with interventions? i am afraid, listening to _ early with interventions? i am afraid, listening to the - early with interventions? i am afraid, listening to the advice i was being _ afraid, listening to the advice i was being given about time limits, and looking with puzzlement at the graphs _ and looking with puzzlement at the graphs and what i should have done, and thankfully it was only a matter of a day— and thankfully it was only a matter of a day or— and thankfully it was only a matter of a day or two before the thing was resolved, _ of a day or two before the thing was resolved, what i should have done was: _ resolved, what i should have done was, as— resolved, what i should have done was, as soon as i saw that graph, said, _ was, as soon as i saw that graph, said. hang — was, as soon as i saw that graph, said, hang on, this is not coherent with what— said, hang on, this is not coherent with what you are telling me about time limits. i do remember looking at it and _ time limits. i do remember looking at it and thinking, there was something amiss.— at it and thinking, there was something amiss. at it and thinking, there was somethin: amiss. �* ., , ., something amiss. around this time on the 5th of march, _ something amiss. around this time on the 5th of march, going _ something amiss. around this time on the 5th of march, going back - something amiss. around this time on the 5th of march, going back to - something amiss. around this time on the 5th of march, going back to the i the 5th of march, going back to the beginning of the week, on the 5th of march there was a covid—i9 meeting in which advice was given to the effect that a prohibition on mass gatherings was not necessary. did you, throughout that week, as you had in fact during early weeks, receive advice that for epidemiological purposes at any rate, there was no need to shut mass gatherings, sporting events? to be gatherings, sporting events? to be fair, to the people _ gatherings, sporting events? to be fair, to the people giving _ gatherings, sporting events? to be fair, to the people giving the advice. — fair, to the people giving the advice. it— fair, to the people giving the advice, it sounded reasonable at the time _ advice, it sounded reasonable at the time given — advice, it sounded reasonable at the time. given what we knew, because what _ time. given what we knew, because what they— time. given what we knew, because what they said was, if you do this, what _ what they said was, if you do this, what you _ what they said was, if you do this, what you will do is push everybody into the _ what you will do is push everybody into the pubs and the warm and enclosed — into the pubs and the warm and enclosed spaces where transmission will be _ enclosed spaces where transmission will be even faster. that was the point _ will be even faster. that was the point that — will be even faster. that was the point that was made. you will be even faster. that was the point that was made.— w