or more if the going rate for theirjob is higher than that. now, from next spring, as we've been hearing, that minimum salary threshold will rise to £38,700. but there are exceptions in what are called shortage occupations, jobs where there are lots of vacancies which can't be filled by local people. well, not easily, anyway. and since last year, the sector which has seen the most workers come in by that route is, of course, health and social care. the numbers are remarkable. in the year to september, 66,000 people got a conventional skilled worker visa, but in the same period, 144,000 people got a health and care visa, mostly to work in care homes. but many of the foreign workers bring close family with them, too. so if you add dependents to the skilled workers, and the numbers rises to 117,000. but in health and care, the combined figure goes up to 318,000. now that's an additional 174,000 dependants who'd no longer be able to come unless the worker earns more than £38,700. very unlikely. now, some in the care sector worry that stopping foreign workers from bringing their close family will mean they don't come either. which worries skills for care. the body that overseas development and training for social care in england estimates that, on average, 9.9% of roles in adult social care were vacant this past 12 months. that's equivalent to around 150,000 vacancies. the number had decreased by around 11,000 over recent years partly as a result of increased international recruitment. but vacancies are stubbornly high compared to the wider uk economy. so what would a changes like this mean for a sector so heavily dependent on migrants? christina mcanea is the general secretary of the union unison. she called the policies cruel and disastrous. we already know that there is massive shortages in social care and indeed in health, and yet the government, i do want to know, have they spoken to anyone in the sector about this before introducing these changes? have they spoken to anyone who commissions or provides or employs care workers? i suspect not. this will be an utter disaster because what they are doing is basically sending out a really strong message to those migrant workers who are basically propping up our care sector, and indeed, in many cases, the health sector, and saying, "you are not welcome here because we don't want "you to bring yourfamilies here." so, you know, you can come but only if you earn over what is it, £38,000? well, most care workers, who are predominantly women, are on minimum wage of £10.44 an hour. they earn nothing like 38,000, and indeed most nurses don't earn £38,000 a year. philip rycroft, former permanent secretary at the department for exiting the eu. he will know what the plan was back then. also with us tonight... mary anne marsh, democratic strategist. the one thing that brexit gave us was control of the levers to do what we wanted on migration, so why has the plan that they set out back in 2019 and introduced in 2021 backfired so spectacularly? in a backfired so spectacularly? in a funny sort _ backfired so spectacularly? in a funny sort of — backfired so spectacularly? in —. funny sort of where you could say that this is one of the slightly elusive brexit benefits. we got our points based system, we equalised in the terms and conditions for bringing firkin from different countries around the world so it was no longer an advantage to people living in the eu, but it looks like it has worked too well and the government has made a manifesto commitment to reduce net migration from the levels they inherited. they have spectacularly missed that target and rather the panics to targets today. i think one of the things that we need to remember in all of this is the demand side. there is a reason that all of these visas have been given to health and social care workers, it is because folk in this country don't want to do theirjobs. why don't they want to do thejobs? do theirjobs. why don't they want to do the jobs? they are not well—paid enough, they are not well trained, there is not enough money in the system. to get a long—term solution to this, the government is going to have to think very hard about the nature of the social care system in this country. and that, ultimately, will mean paying people better, making theirjobs more attractive so that we are not so reliant on labour from overseas. find reliant on labour from overseas. and that is the point, marianne, people always have a downer on migration and the reality is that governments are very happy to do care and health on the cheap. in social care, they have been able to import plenty of labour to do it over the years. there is an alternative route, you could make a quantum leap in salaries, make thejob could make a quantum leap in salaries, make the job a great deal more attractive, that would be one way, but governments never seem to want to take up that option.— want to take up that option. know, and i think— want to take up that option. know, and i think really _ want to take up that option. know, and i think really because - want to take up that option. know, and i think really because certain i and i think really because certain parties. — and i think really because certain parties, certain political entities, prefer— parties, certain political entities, prefer to— parties, certain political entities, prefer to have the political benefits of a migration problem, a migration— benefits of a migration problem, a migration crisis. they are not interested _ migration crisis. they are not interested in fixing it when countries around the world, including _ countries around the world, including the united states, are all struggling with their migrant crisis. — struggling with their migrant crisis, struggling to get people in. the system itself has been undermined, you see long lines at all of— undermined, you see long lines at all of the — undermined, you see long lines at all of the borders where people are trying _ all of the borders where people are trying to— all of the borders where people are trying to get in because the process is not _ trying to get in because the process is not working, because it has been cut and _ is not working, because it has been cut and undermined here for decades now. cut and undermined here for decades now and _ cut and undermined here for decades now. and yet they point the finger at the _ now. and yet they point the finger at the that— now. and yet they point the finger at the that existing. meanwhile in many— at the that existing. meanwhile in many countries around the world, the need for— many countries around the world, the need for labour is extraordinary. migrants— need for labour is extraordinary. migrants are a great workforce, and a great _ migrants are a great workforce, and a great way— migrants are a great workforce, and a great way to enter into the economy— a great way to enter into the economy if they can get in and get processed — economy if they can get in and get processed and get work visas and work— processed and get work visas and work passes to do it, yet nobody seems _ work passes to do it, yet nobody seems interested in getting that part of— seems interested in getting that part of the problem solved. but the oint is, part of the problem solved. but the point is. mary _ part of the problem solved. but the point is, mary anne _ part of the problem solved. but the point is, mary anne marsh, - part of the problem solved. but the point is, mary anne marsh, you - part of the problem solved. but the point is, mary anne marsh, you arei point is, mary anne marsh, you are right that there is a great value to migrants, but people don't want to think that their borders are not controlled. i do that is the specific problem in the united states at the moment, come on to the uk. �* , ., states at the moment, come on to the uk. , states at the moment, come on to the uk. and it is a conscious decision. political actors _ uk. and it is a conscious decision. political actors are _ uk. and it is a conscious decision. political actors are making - uk. and it is a conscious decision. political actors are making a - political actors are making a conscious _ political actors are making a conscious decision to make sure that it does— conscious decision to make sure that it does not— conscious decision to make sure that it does not work, so that they can point _ it does not work, so that they can point to— it does not work, so that they can point to the — it does not work, so that they can point to the chaos and the allegations that the borders and secure — allegations that the borders and secure. and that topic right now as we speak— secure. and that topic right now as we speak as — secure. and that topic right now as we speak as there that is holding up united _ we speak as there that is holding up united states aid to ukraine and israei _ united states aid to ukraine and israel. border security, people are trying _ israel. border security, people are trying to— israel. border security, people are trying to marry it to aid but it has nothing _ trying to marry it to aid but it has nothing to— trying to marry it to aid but it has nothing to do with it.— nothing to do with it. those who want the cut. — nothing to do with it. those who want the cut, philip, _ nothing to do with it. those who want the cut, philip, say - nothing to do with it. those who want the cut, philip, say what i nothing to do with it. those who want the cut, philip, say what isi want the cut, philip, say what is not reflective when we talk about people coming here to work is the number of dependents who come with them, the cost of the dependents to them, the cost of the dependents to the wider economy, so in schooling, housing, health care, if you look at the last two years, we have taken in overi million people legally at a time when money for services is so acutely short. there a net cost that comes with migration that we continue to overlook? mi comes with migration that we continue to overlook?- comes with migration that we continue to overlook? all of the evidence over _ continue to overlook? all of the evidence over the _ continue to overlook? all of the evidence over the years - continue to overlook? all of the evidence over the years is - continue to overlook? all of the evidence over the years is that l evidence over the years is that migrants tend to add value to the economy, they tend to be younger, they tend to, most of them by definition, are in work, and many of them if you look at the numbers of skilled workers, are in good jobs and making contributions. if you get the balance out of kilter, if you get too many dependents, it begins to slip the other way. it is ultimately about finding the right balance, but when people worry about pressure on public services, they have also got to worry about the other sort of pressure which is not being able to get a care worker for their ageing relatives. so we have to find the right balance. we won't know, frankly, for some time whether these measures that the government has set out today to achieve a better balance.— has set out today to achieve a better balance. that is the point that suelia _ better balance. that is the point that suella braverman _ better balance. that is the point that suella braverman is - better balance. that is the point i that suella braverman is making tonight, if you brought these in a lot earlier, they would have been reflected in the figures before the general election, but are these changes would be reflected until 2025. she is putting the boot and a little. ,, , ., , , ., 2025. she is putting the boot and a little. ,, , ., , , little. she is not shy of putting the boot in. — little. she is not shy of putting the boot in, she? _ little. she is not shy of putting the boot in, she? if— little. she is not shy of putting the boot in, she? if you - little. she is not shy of putting the boot in, she? if you look. little. she is not shy of putting | the boot in, she? if you look at this from the government's perspective, the numbers for last year and this year really are quite staggering in terms of the increase, given the commitment that they have made. this is the irony of it, that when we come in one of the big promises of brexit was taking back control of the order, introducing this points—based system, but it seems to have overachieved, if i could put it lightly. flan seems to have overachieved, if i could put it lightly.— could put it lightly. can we talk about... these _ could put it lightly. can we talk about... these are _ could put it lightly. can we talk about... these are changes - could put it lightly. can we talk - about... these are changes outlined today that are part of a two pronged approach. later in the weeks we should get something on illegal migration and specifically the plan to stop the boats. there are reports that the home secretary will be travelling to rwanda may be as early as tomorrow to beginning work on a new treaty. just for people watching around the world, last month the supreme court ruled that processing asylum claims in rwanda might risk claimants being wrongly assessed or returned to their country of origin to face persecution. just before we move on, philip, can i ask you what you are hearing about the changes that might be made and why there are concerns within the home office about the emergency legislation that the government would bring in? i think the rwanda policy has always been about performative politics, hasn't it? there is very little evidence that it would have a huge deterrent effect. the government is impaired on the hoop now, we made a dramatic promise saying that it is desperate to get it to work. i think they will struggle to overcome the consent of the supreme court. you can't wave a wand and say that a country, we believe it is safe so it is safe. that it will be challenged if anybody is ever threatened with being put on a plane. the worst risk, i think, being put on a plane. the worst risk, ithink, is being put on a plane. the worst risk, i think, is that they try to advance this cause by effectively reneging on our international commitments to the european convention on human rights. that would be a terrible precedent to set, it would put it in some very bad company, it would destabilise the good friday belfast agreement, it would threaten trading propositions with the eu, really disastrous effects for a policy which, at the end of the day, it's probably going to make very little difference to those boats coming across the channel. at the margins, but the incentives are far bigger than the deterrent effects of rwanda. i5 than the deterrent effects of rwanda. , , �* than the deterrent effects of rwanda. , , . , rwanda. is mary anne marsh were sa in: , rwanda. is mary anne marsh were saying. the — rwanda. is mary anne marsh were saying, the illegal— rwanda. is mary anne marsh were saying, the illegal migration - saying, the illegal migration across the southern border in the united states is at a record lap level and it is holding a crucial lead for ukraine. broadly speaking, there is cross—party support that the white house has allocated, but republican state must come with new money for the border, and they have now separated ukraine spending from that portion of the aid package which included money for and taiwan. today, the administration's budget director shalanda young sent a letter to house and senate leaders which included the most alarming language yet. "i want to be clear," she said, "without congressional action, by the end of the year, we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for ukraine and to provide equipment from us military stocks. there is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. we are out of money and nearly out of time. cutting off the flow of us weapons and equipment will kneecap ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of russian military victories." two weeks, that is pretty stark. yes, and it is all true. the fact is that— yes, and it is all true. the fact is that the — yes, and it is all true. the fact is that the majority of the house under the senate, democrats and republicans, support aid to ukraine. i republicans, support aid to ukraine. i know— republicans, support aid to ukraine. i know you _ republicans, support aid to ukraine. i know you have republican house who have proven _ i know you have republican house who have proven over the last two years and set _ have proven over the last two years and set in _ have proven over the last two years and set in the last two months that it doesn't— and set in the last two months that it doesn't appear that they could organise — it doesn't appear that they could organise a two car funeral. now they are putting _ organise a two car funeral. now they are putting in border security and linking _ are putting in border security and linking it — are putting in border security and linking it to ukraine. just before we came — linking it to ukraine. just before we came in— linking it to ukraine. just before we came in the air, senate majority leader— we came in the air, senate majority leader schumer said that we do not want any— leader schumer said that we do not want any border issues connected to this, we _ want any border issues connected to this, we want to do ukraine, israel, and mayhe — this, we want to do ukraine, israel, and maybe indo asia together, thundered together all at once to -et thundered together all at once to get to— thundered together all at once to get to be — thundered together all at once to get to be aired out of the door. the republicans who run the house have been kicking the budget down the road, _ been kicking the budget down the road, down the road, down the road, down _ road, down the road, down the road, down the _ road, down the road, down the road, down the road and the funds for ukraine — down the road and the funds for ukraine and israel and taiwan and others _ ukraine and israel and taiwan and others are — ukraine and israel and taiwan and others are all part of this budget package — others are all part of this budget package which is why you heard from the irudget— package which is why you heard from the budget director today and then within— the budget director today and then within the — the budget director today and then within the last hour, jake sullivan had a _ within the last hour, jake sullivan had a briefing at the white house and said — had a briefing at the white house and said that anyone who votes against — and said that anyone who votes against or— and said that anyone who votes against or impedes aid to ukraine is supporting — against or impedes aid to ukraine is supporting vladimir putin. the roblem supporting vladimir putin. the problem with _ supporting vladimir putin. inez problem with this though supporting vladimir putin. ti9: problem with this though is that supporting vladimir putin. ti9 problem with this though is that the house speaker mikejohnson doesn't house speaker mike johnson doesn't have house speaker mikejohnson doesn't have the power to put something through solely on ukraine. there is a large part of his party that once body reform, so we are in a stand—off. body reform, so we are in a stand-offl— body reform, so we are in a stand-off. : :, , ., , stand-off. all of the democrats will su- ort it. stand-off. all of the democrats will sopport it- if _ stand-off. all of the democrats will support it. if those _ stand-off. all of the democrats will support it. if those republicans - stand-off. all of the democrats will support it. if those republicans are| support it. if those republicans are in new