scotland and even in northern ireland and parts of oxygen, below freezing but take a look at what to expect when you wake up tomorrow —— parts of oxfordshire. some places a good 10 degrees up on what we had this morning. it is all because of the cloud and rain that will spoil the cloud and rain that will spoil the child is the meteor shower. as you can see, moving in is a south—westerly wind get a great spoil the chances. it will bring a way start for many for our saturday morning. the rain clearing steadily east, there will be a heavier pulse going into the morning across parts of london, easing away, nine or ten o'clock, gradually and quite a clearance behind it but further north, it will be quite a murky and misty and damp start with a few scattered showers around and more frequent showers in northern ireland and scotland pondered the winds is a feature, gus exposed coast up to 50 mph and the blustery star to the weekend. into the afternoon, a case of sunny spells and scattered showers, most frequent to the north and west, hopefully the rain eased as a way, improving picture for england and wales but staying mild with temperatures around 10—15. moving into sunday, that low pressure will not move very far very fast i'm afraid. it gradually drifts eastwards across northern scotland, still the isobars packed together and still plenty of strong and gusty winds, particularly on sunday across england and wales. a rash of showers spiralling around that so sunny spells, scattered showers, blustery winds but to end on a positive, it will be pretty mild for this time of year. thanks, louise. and that's bbc news at ten. there's more analysis of the day's main stories on newsnight with faisal islam which is just getting under way on bbc two. here, it is time to join our colleagues for the news where you are. from the ten team, it's goodnight. the chancellor proclaims a "very big turning point" in the economy, as he ponders squeezing benefits to cut taxes next week. jeremy hunt speaks to newsnight as he finds £45 billion for green industry to try to turn the corner from a tricky week in westminster. also tonight, we hear the latest on the humanitarian situation in gaza, and a former israeli prime minister tells us israel can't be responsible for security in gaza in the future. he can speak as much as he wants about taking control and all this, this is nonsense. the head of —— but they had security responsibility for gaza until the 7th of october and he completely failed. mps express concern about their safety as they face threats following the vote over a ceasefire in gaza. the man who used to be responsible for mps�* security tells us social media is creating a dangerous environment. after a tricky week in politics, next week's autumn statement, probably the penultimate tax, spend and borrowing budgetary statement before the election, assumes a new importance for the government and for the choices facing the nation. today the chancellor found £4.5 billion to try to compete with massive green subsidies given by the us and europe, but was reluctant to announce the return of industrial policy — and more on that in a moment. but that is one of a series of knife—edge decisions about trying to boost the economy, while finding the space for some pre—election tax cuts. it appears a significant squeeze on benefits is coming. his room for manoeuvre is being determined by the deliberations of the official government forecaster the office for budget responsibility, which returned its final forecast to the treasury today. that will have big implications for the government's choices. in a moment, my interview withjeremy hunt ahead of the autumn statement. but first here is ben on the chancellor's choices. fiscal headroom. we've been hearing quite a lot about that ahead of next week's autumn statement in the context of discussions and pressure for tax cuts on the chancellor, jeremy hunt. but is there any fiscal headroom and what does it actually mean? it has to be seen in the context of the chancellor's chosen fiscal rules, which is to have debt falling as a share of gdp in five years�* time. this shows the picture during the march budget, that little dip between 2027 and 2028 — that's the target just about being met. it's around 0.2% of gdp, or around £6 billion. that's the fiscal headroom. so what will the outlook be in next week's autumn statement? well, that will depend on what the office for budget responsibility projects will happen to the economy. but the resolution foundation has made some estimates and reckons it will be something like this. the level of debt is lower because of revisions to the size of the economy and the target rolls on a year to 2029. but here's the bottom line. the degree to which debt is falling in the target year increases to 0.4% of gdp, or £13 billion. so that's the new fiscal headroom. so let's assume that this does happen. can the chancellor safely spend this money on tax cuts or spending increases, as many are suggesting? well, public finance experts warn against it because those margins of fiscal headroom are already very small by historic standards and are based on forecasts that are subject to great uncertainty. it's not real in any genuine sense. the chancellor, of course, can decide to cut taxes, and some of the numbers he comes out with may look like they give him space to do that. but that is a political decision about whether he does it. it is not something that he suddenly becomes allowed to do because of some assumptions about what might happen in five years�* time. though, the chancellor could also seek to increase his headroom by cutting spending. one option newsnight understands is being considered by the treasury is uprating the triple locked state pension by a lowerfigure than the 8.5% rate of wage growth seen in the summer, the chancellor was in sheffield this morning announcing his new manufacturing fund at a hydrogen energy facility. it came as he finalised his tax and spending decisions including making final decisions on cutting the welfare bill by billions to fund tax cuts, possibly to inhertance tax. i spoke to him there and began by asking him if indeed that was the plan. our priority, as i said before, is growth. now that we have halved inflation, still progress we need to make, but that is a very big turning point for the british economy. and the autumn statement will be focusing on the long term growth of the british economy. and we think that supporting businesses like the one that we're both at in sheffield today is the way to do that. in terms of tax cuts, you'll have to wait and see. but i will say that the priority is helping businesses like this to succeed. but you could squeeze benefits. i mean, it was due to go up by 6%, 7%. and you could use the different inflation figure to save you two or three billion pounds, apparently. well, we will always be a compassionate conservative government, but part of how we make our economy successful is by making sure that companies like this company can find the staff they need — nearly a million vacancies across the economy. that making work pay is a vital part of our economic success. so we do need to reform our welfare system because we believe that making work pay is a vital part of our economic success. in terms of manufacturing, you've announced $4.5 billion more money. but does this amount to an industrial strategy? your government used to have an industrial strategy, you then purged the word away. is this the return of industrial strategy? well, what matters is not the label, but the commitment of the government to the manufacturing sector. and under conservative governments over the last decade, we have overtaken france to become the eighth largest manufacturer in the world. so we are backing brilliant businesses like the one that we are visiting today. sure, but when your predecessor purges the word industrial strategy, the commitment doesn't sound like it was there. and as you know, people take the long view here. they need to have consistency. well, i don't think people care if we call it an industrial strategy or a manufacturing strategy. what we're saying is that we're putting our money where our mouth is, £2 billion for the auto industry, nearly £1 billion for aerospace, nearly £1 billion for green industries. but we're not getting into a global subsidy race. these sums of money are lower than other countries are putting in. but when you combine it with the other support that we're giving for green industries, things like the contracts for difference programme, the market mechanisms and indeed our tax regime, which we will continue to make sure is one of the most competitive, we think the uk remains the most compelling place if you want to invest for the future. could we imagine that you'll attract kind of famous american electric vehicle entrepreneurs, for example, to open a factory in britain a couple of months before the election? so is this where this is going? i would love to have a tesla factory in the uk at any time. let's be clear. is that what the couple of billion is for? that is a fantastic company. well, we're putting £2 billion, this is targeted support, but actually i spoke to elon musk about this and he said it's not about the support, it's about the environment. and he loves london because there's so much tech going on. and tesla is essentially a tech company. so, let's see what happens there. it's been quite a volatile week in politics. i think we can say that. if you stand back, you've now got your old friend david cameron around the cabinet table and you think about his promise to the british people a few years back that it would be, what, strength and stability and not chaos and instability with ed miliband? that didn't seem to work out. what do you say to the british people when they say we've had five or six years of chaos since david cameron last made that promise? well, let's look at how westminster works. and you've been watching it, faisal, for a very long time. and i can remember when peter mandelson was coming and going from tony blair's cabinet. i can remember when nigel lawson and michael heseltine did shock resignations... there weren't five finance ministers and four prime ministers. my point is, there is always things going on in westminster, but what people at home care about in a cost of living crisis is the fact that this week, the inflation rate has halved compared to a year ago. are you taking credit for that? you didn't take the blame when it went up to ii%. well, but what i did was i took responsibility for that high inflation. i said, what is it that the chancellor needs to do? rishi sunak said, this is our number one priority. we took very difficult decisions at the autumn statement a year ago to get borrowing and debt under control. that has created the backdrop that has made it possible for the bank of england to do theirjob. and so when people can see when their energy bills are going through the roof, when their shopping bills are going up, when they can see that a government has managed to play its part in halving inflation, they can see that we're getting results on the big priorities that really matter. nice to see david cameron back around the cabinet table? well, i enjoyed working for david cameron for six years. he was a fantastic prime minister. he will be an amazing foreign secretary and we are very lucky to have him. must leave that there. thank you very much. thanks, faisal. much appreciated. the situation for civilians in gaza continues to be desperate, with the the un's world food programme today warning those living there face "immediate possibility of starvation". the israeli government has said that it will allow two lorries worth of fuel in a day, saying it was a very minimal quantity of fuel designed to avoid the risk of disease, and will be tracked to make sure it doesn't reach hamas — who are proscribed as a terrorist organisation by many western governments. but no trucks have crossed the border today. israel says its troops have found the body of a second woman held hostage by hamas, during a search close to al—shifa hospital in gaza. meanwhile the health ministry, run by hamas, say more than 12,000 palestinians — including 5,000 children — have now been killed by israeli military action. joining me now in the studio is actionaid uk's ceo, helima begum. thanks forjoining us. what is the humanitarian situation on the ground in gaza as you understand it come from your colleagues on the ground? it is day 14 now so it is critical and deteriorating. if you asked me a week ago i would have said it is deteriorating, but it is deteriorating, but it is deteriorating and we are at the stage when international intervention on humanitarian grounds is an absolute imperative. qm. intervention on humanitarian grounds is an absolute imperative.— is an absolute imperative. ok, so, tell me more _ is an absolute imperative. ok, so, tell me more about _ is an absolute imperative. ok, so, tell me more about the _ is an absolute imperative. ok, so, tell me more about the detail - is an absolute imperative. ok, so, tell me more about the detail of l tell me more about the detail of what's going on on the ground, what are we talking about in terms of food and water, obviously in terms of fuel? we food and water, obviously in terms of fuel? ~ . , ., food and water, obviously in terms offuel? ~ . , ., . , of fuel? we have several concerns and none of _ of fuel? we have several concerns and none of these _ of fuel? we have several concerns and none of these concerns - of fuel? we have several concerns and none of these concerns are i of fuel? we have several concerns i and none of these concerns are more important than others but essentially we worry about food and extreme hunger. as of today there is about 7% of food that has got into gaza that is needed for gazza so there are a critical food shortages. you just heard about the lack of fuel. —— gah tsar. trucks can't get around to the camp distribute food but also be really worried about the spread of disease. you will have heard that there is a challenge around sewage around rafa, some parts are in danger are in danger —— are in danger of the spread of the century. we are hearing something like 70,000 people have respiratory illnesses. that is going to get worse. on top of that, we are also worried about the critical care of hospitals and patients not getting the treatment they need. you will have heard something about al—shifa hospital but we also have one of our hospitals, one of the largest maternity hospitals in the territory and we know we lost contact with them about two days ago and they delivered 22 newborn babies and recently don't know how... what delivered 22 newborn babies and recently don't know how... what is the situation _ recently don't know how... what is the situation of _ recently don't know how... what is the situation of those _ recently don't know how... what is the situation of those babies? - recently don't know how... what is the situation of those babies? in . the situation of those babies? in al—shifa, you know that 22 the situation of those babies? i�*i al—shifa, you know that 22 patients died overnight. but in our hospital, babies were delivered, but under extremely difficult conditions where there were caesareans delivered with a knife and torch, no access to equipment or life—saving services. so it is dire and we know that doctors are saying they had to operate and even if the hospital itself is not under attack, the building is shaking around them. so it is so precarious and we really do need an intervention. 50 precarious and we really do need an intervention-— intervention. so you have some direct connections _ intervention. so you have some direct connections into - intervention. so you have some direct connections into the - intervention. so you have some i direct connections into the health system in gaza. obviously, there is a dispute between the israeli authorities and hamas authorities over the number of casualties, do you have any clarity on those sorts of numbers, 12,000 killed, 5,000 children? . , ., ., children? the palestinian health authorities are _ children? the palestinian health authorities are telling _ children? the palestinian health authorities are telling us - children? the palestinian health authorities are telling us that i children? the palestinian health| authorities are telling us that the death toll in gaza is 12,000 at the moment, of which 5,000 of these are children. we can speak directly to the testimonies from our doctors in al—awda hospital, they are saying people are dying and coming through their wards from other parts of gaza. remember, not all the hospitals are up and running, so our hospitals are up and running, so our hospital which is a maternity hospital, al—awda hospital, is taking in casualties for notjust maternity purposes, but it is stretched and it cannot operate. there is no fuel or electricity. just quickly, field hospitals, what is the importance of those and how realistic is it to get those up and running? realistic is it to get those up and runnina ? ~ ., ., running? the world health organization _ running? the world health organization has _ running? the world health organization has pretty i running? the world health i organization has pretty much running? the world health - organization has pretty much said with all the domestic hospitals in gaza under threat or attack, it is necessary to open up field hospitals. it's important to open these up inside gaza because there are no hospitals running. but in order to open up the field hospitals, we do need a humanitarian ceasefire and a ceasefire that is a ceasefire and a ceasefire that is a ceasefire for all parties concerned because why would you open up a field hospital without a cessation of hostilities?— of hostilities? thanks for that, halima begum _ of hostilities? thanks for that, halima begum from _ of hostilities? thanks for that, | halima begum from actionaid. over 230 people are still being held hostage by hamas, and hundreds of their friends and family are walking from tel aviv tojerusalem to demand that the government secures their release, as criticism of prime minister netanyahu increases in the country. ehud olmert was israeli prime minister for three years — between 2006 and 2009. he said he wanted a two—state solution, offering to withdraw from most of the occupied west bank, in return for peace. his deal ended when he was forced from office in a corruption scandal. he's been a fierce critic of his successor, supporting the long—running protest movement that has been calling on mr netanyahu to resign. when the attacks of october 7th happened, those divisions ended, but cracks are now starting to reappear. speaking to our international correspondent, joe inwood, he began by saying who he thought was to blame for the security failings, ahead of the massacre of october 7th. first of all, the prime minister, of course, there was a military failure and an intelligence failure of the military intelligence, the secret service intelligence, but the strategy was netanyahu's and netanyahu's alone. based on my personal experience, but also, on what netanyahu said for years. he's the one person who is in charge of everything, at the end of the day, he decides. in order to protect his status personally and to defend himself against the legal process which is, was taking place already, he needed to change the judicial system, and that's what he was trying to do. of course, the government was shaking. and the only basis of support for him were the messianic groups. so there was this alliance that was based on corruption and on the abuse of the powers of the state, and the resources of the state to protect the personal status of the prime minister. and it also led to a huge number of forces being withdrawn from gaza and taken to the west bank. part of it was... part of the process was to respond to their demands, at the expense of others. and this was just one aspect of it, not the only one. billions and billions and billions of shekels were spent, in order to buy their support. coming now to the future of the west bank and the future of gaza. we saw prime minister netanyahu a couple of days ago say that he thinks there's got to be an ongoing security involvement. bibi can speak as much as he wants about taking control of all of this. this is nonsense. he had security responsibility for gaza, until the 7th of october. what did he do with it? he completely failed. i mean, this is not new. we always had security responsibility, of course. do we need to be inside gaza, in the shifa hospital or in khan younis, in order to take control of security? no, wejust had to protect the border in a more effective manner, which we didn't. and so, after destroying hamas, we can return immediately back into the international border, which is recognised by the international community, which is not even claimed by the palestinians to be theirs. and then, we also have to offer a political horizon. and the only political horizon is a two—state solution. so, had i been the prime minister of israel now, that's what i would have done. i would have come to the americans and europeans and say, "hey, guys, you send your intervention force into gaza for a short period of time." that will allow, eventually, the palestinian authority to take over not from the israeli bayonets, but from the non—involved western power that will try and help rehabilitate, start to rehabilitate gaza. this is the end game. now, of course, you would ask me, will bibi, his government make a statement that they are prepared for a two—state solution? no way. they are not going to do it. that's another reason why they have to be kicked out today. would that solution for the west bank, would that involve the removal of many of the new settlements that are being built? of course. yes. how would that be achieved? it will be imposed by a strong government. and i think that it can be done. my proposal — which, by the way, lies on the table of abu mazen — as of two months ago, the plan that i have, that i've submitted to him that is, broadly speaking, i think is acceptable to them — which they should have accepted 15 years ago, but they didn't have the vision and the courage. but anyway... would you not face an extremely dangerous backlash to this, a violent backlash? we will. we have to save the state of israel. would it not risk destroying the state of israel? maybe. i trust that the overwhelming majority of people in this country, all of the groups that make up the power, the strengths, the sophistication, the progress, the culture, the achievements of this country will be on this side. it will be a decisive process for what israel is all about. but anything else will be much worse because if we will not pull out from the territories, if we will not separate from the palestinians, if we will not help them create their own state, independent state, if they will not be allowed to exercise their fundamental right for self—determination, then israel will become a binational state that will forever live with internal conflicts and frictions and terror and hatred, and whatnot. segregation and second—class citizens. segragation and second—class citizens. which is what ben—gvir and smotrich and their supporters want. but we will not allow it because we have a different self—image of who we are as human beings, and we will never allow it. ehud olmert. staying with the fallout of the turmoil in the middle east, a number of mps have raised concern about their safety in recent days, after protests directed against them individually, in person and on social media. today, the white house criticised elon musk over repeating what they called a "hideous" anti—semitic lie. is it time to lower the temperature? order! it was the biggest parliamentary rebellion keir starmer�*s nearly four years in office. starmer's nearly four years in office. , , ., ' office. the eyes to the right, 125, the noes to _ office. the eyes to the right, 125, the noes to the _ office. the eyes to the right, 125, the noes to the left, _ office. the eyes to the right, 125, the noes to the left, 293. - office. the eyes to the right, 125, the noes to the left, 293. 56 i office. the eyes to the right, 125, the noes to the left, 293. 56 mps defied him _ the noes to the left, 293. 56 mps defied him to _ the noes to the left, 293. 56 mps defied him to back _ the noes to the left, 293. 56 mps defied him to back an _ the noes to the left, 293. 56 mps defied him to back an snp - the noes to the left, 293. 56 mp5 - defied him to back an snp amendment calling for an immediate ceasefire in gaza. two days later, mps on all sides have reported a rise in threatening abuse. the backlash against labour mps has taken place online and in the flesh. last night in cardiff, protesters marched on the office of shadow welsh secretary joe stevens and this was the scene this morning, red paint accusing her of having blood on her hands. this is a peaceful— of having blood on her hands. ti 3 is a peaceful protest, i absolutely support the right to protest unequivocally, but this is criminal damage. this is designed to intimidate and to cause fear and harassment. and ultimately, the taxpayer pays for the offices of mps, the taxpayer will have to pay for this to be repaired. and this is a work place. so my staff team have to work here and this is where constituents come for help and support. constituents come for help and su . ort. constituents come for help and su--ort. ~ ., , constituents come for help and su--ort. , constituents come for help and su--ort. _, , ., . ., support. south wales police are investigating — support. south wales police are investigating well _ support. south wales police are investigating well a _ support. south wales police are investigating well a protester i support. south wales police are i investigating well a protester told the bbc she took part peacefully. other women labour mps have also been targeted, many of them in london, including in bethel and beaune. there has been abused targeted at those who voted for a ceasefire, no—shows says she received threats after voting for the amendment and had the police. —— naz shah. with more protest planned, several have contacted the police for more security. joining me now is nick aldworth, who was the chief inspector of policing and security operations at the uk parliament and a former national counter—terrorism co—ordinator. thanks forjoining us tonight. what are you seeing in terms of mps and how does it compare to what you saw backin how does it compare to what you saw back in 2016?— back in 2016? well, i started workin: back in 2016? well, i started working in — back in 2016? well, i started working in parliament - back in 2016? well, i started working in parliament in i back in 2016? well, | started | working in parliament in 2014, back in 2016? well, | started - working in parliament in 2014, 2013, and we saw across those years awful abuse. i remember in particular luciana berger subjected to the most horrific anti—semitic abuse. and that level, that latent level of abuse towards our mps has continued since that time. i believe bbc�*s report last year indicated some 3,000 toxic tweets are being received every single day. so there is nothing new in what is happening here. i think what we need to be worried about is that there is an intrinsic link between this sort of behaviour and some of the social media feeding radicalisation and feeding radical views among people. so there is a line to make you talk about toxic tweets, but do you think things are at the line, approaching line, over the line already in terms of some of the activity we have seen now? i of some of the activity we have seen now? ~ , ., , ., now? i think the minute you start committing _ now? i think the minute you start committing criminal _ now? i think the minute you start committing criminal offences, i now? i think the minute you start| committing criminal offences, you have well and truly cross the line, i think most mps would accept there is a degree of robust debate to be had, but far too often, we are seeing people completely capable of having that debate and reverting to ad hominem, particularly against women mps. i think the thing we need to be concerned about is going back to be concerned about is going back to 2010, we saw the attempted murder of stephen timms, 2016, the murder of stephen timms, 2016, the murder ofjo cox and 2021, the murder of david amess. we can't live in a

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