Transcripts For BBCNEWS World 20240702 : comparemela.com

BBCNEWS World July 2, 2024



hello, i'm sally bundock with the top business stories, and we begin with the upcoming face to face meeting between us presidentjoe biden and china's president xi jinping. the two leaders are meeting on wednesday on the side lines of the asia—pacific economic cooperation summit in san francisco and the world will be watching to see if they can soothe their fraught economic and diplomatic relationship. in their first face—to—face talks in more than a year, they are expected to discuss the ongoing trade row between the two countries, as well as washington's measures to restrict beijing's access to advanced computer chips, citing people familiar with the matter. let's discuss this with brian coulton — chief economist at fitch ratings. good morning. we will talk about the cletus meeting on wednesday but today finance leaders are gathered. what is expected from them? i leaders are gathered. what is expected from them?- expected from them? i think there will — expected from them? i think there will be _ expected from them? i think there will be a _ expected from them? i think there will be a lot _ expected from them? i think there will be a lot of - there will be a lot of discussion on the global economic outlook and what that means for the apec countries. although the recent numbers have been a bit better as a us consumer continues to spend rapidly, the outlook for 2024 is darkening. world trade growth is pretty much flat at the moment, not growing at all. china's the moment, not growing at all. china's economy is possibly going to achieve a 5% this year but with the property market really still not showing any signs of stabilising, the domestic growth outlook in china is weak and that is where i think the trade agenda is becoming increasingly important because they have had a few years of a very good trade growth, export growth through the pandemic but that is slowing and that is a big threat to their growth outlook. let's talk about the trade agenda. everybody will be watching really closely on wednesday to see howjoe biden and xijinping get on. and what it does in terms of helping them overcome their obstacles when it comes to semiconductors, when it comes to other issues as a trade at. both of these economies are hugely integrated. there is already massive us investment in china, us copies have huge operations. there is pressure on both sides to avoid a deterioration but i don't know, given the hardness of the us position, i don't know if much concrete will come out of it. they will be some good headlines, i'm sure, but i think the relationship is quite strained and i don't really see a massive breakthrough in improving the situation. fine improving the situation. one re ort improving the situation. one report coming _ improving the situation. one report coming through from bloomberg news says china is considering resuming purchases of boeing 737 max aircraft and thatis of boeing 737 max aircraft and that is the kind of snippets of news you get ahead of these talks, don't you?— talks, don't you? yeah, expectations _ talks, don't you? yeah, expectations are - talks, don't you? yeah, expectations are being l talks, don't you? yeah, - expectations are being built up. that has obviously put the pressure on, but at the end of the day quite often what comes out of these conferences is a piece of paper that is the lowest common denominator that can be agreed on and quite often they disappoint in reality. it is good that they are speaking, no doubt. i think in china with the domestic economy looking so weak, maybe there has been a bit more of an easing of this view that there needs to be more restrictive, and they are looking to try and improve this external position. there is a lack of a foreign investor confidence in the china growth story at the moment, they are looking to turn that round.— moment, they are looking to turn that round. thank you for our turn that round. thank you for your thoughts _ turn that round. thank you for your thoughts on _ turn that round. thank you for your thoughts on that. - turn that round. thank you for your thoughts on that. brian l your thoughts on that. brian coulton, chief economist at fitch ratings. later today we'll get the latest 0pec monthly oil outlook which will report on what's impacting oil market trends in world oil demand and supply. the world bank has recently warned that oil prices could rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict in the middle east escalated. but last week oil prices slid over 4% to their lowest in more than three months on concerns over waning demand in the us and china and the easing of worries over a wider conflict in the middle east. saudi arabia's energy minister last thursday said oil consumption remains healthy and blamed speculators for the recent drop in prices. so what is going on? spencer welch is oil analyst with s&p global. good morning to you. morning. was do we _ good morning to you. morning. was do we think— good morning to you. morning. was do we think the _ good morning to you. morning. was do we think the monthly i was do we think the monthly report will tell us when it is released a little later? i think it will talk about the demand for oil and say that there is weaker economic data and oil demand has eased a little but it is normal for oil demand to decline a little bit as we go into the northern hemisphere winter. people drive less, people fly less, it consumes less oil. it is quite normal to have some easing of price through the winter period. the concern, i think, is the global economic data and 0pec will have to make a decision as to whether they feel it necessary to cut supply further. �* ., , feel it necessary to cut supply further. �* . , ., further. and that is what we want to know. _ further. and that is what we want to know. what - further. and that is what we want to know. what will. further. and that is what we l want to know. what will saudi arabia and russia in particular do? they have already committed to cutting supply by a certain amount monthly to the end of this year as the outlook for 2024 for the global economy is not particularly bright, is it? no. absolutely, the 0pec plus is cutting supply by around 4 million barrels per day, 4% of the world's oil supply, and on top of that, on their own, saudi arabia is cutting by another million barrels per day to give an additional boost to price and they have said they will cut by that initial million. 0n will cut by that initial million. on top of other cuts, that will stay in place to the end of the year. those countries are already significantly cutting supply, that affect their income because they want to try to push the price up and, as you said, there is concern about that economic data next year and whether they will have to continue that policy. just quickly. _ continue that policy. just quickly, what _ continue that policy. just quickly, what do - continue that policy. just quickly, what do you - continue that policy. just quickly, what do you think about the world bank warning, that we could see oil at $150 per barrel, do you think that is likely?— per barrel, do you think that is likel ? , ~ , is likely? extremely unlikely. they were — is likely? extremely unlikely. they were talking _ is likely? extremely unlikely. they were talking about - is likely? extremely unlikely. they were talking about the l they were talking about the conflict in the middle east. if that was to escalate, affecting some of the other main oil producers like saudi arabia, there is no sign of that happening at the moment, they were alluding back to the 19705 as to what happened in a previous cri5i5 when there were oil embargoes. i think that's extremely unlikely and, a5 extremely unlikely and, as we've seen, as you mentioned in the last week, when the war 5tarted the last week, when the war started at the beginning of october there was a bit of a 0ctober there was a bit of a price 5pike but very small. that has now disappeared. spencer welch, thank you, good to talk to you, from s&p global. here in the uk, prime minister rishi sunak is set to declare this week that his promise to halve inflation has been met. 0fficial inflation figures will be published in the uk on wednesday. this will give the prime minister some much needed good new5 ahead of next week's autumn statement. that is delivered by the chancellor atjeremy hunt. live now to craig erlam, senior market analy5t, 0anda. a lot of attention will be on the uk inflation numbers. al5o the uk inflation numbers. also we are getting inflation numbers in the us. what are you expecting? numbers in the us. what are you meeting?— expecting? well, as rishi sunak exce -t to expecting? well, as rishi sunak except to say. _ expecting? well, as rishi sunak except to say, inflation - expecting? well, as rishi sunak except to say, inflation is - except to say, inflation is expected to fall from almost 7% down to below 5% so it will be a dramatic drop this month. that is driven by the changes in the energy price cap this year falling, in the energy price cap this yearfalling, la5t in the energy price cap this year falling, last year ri5ing. comparables are more favourable but oil prices and food prices, or slow it for price inflation will have a big effect. a big milestone for the uk but still, as you say, a long way to go. for the prime minister, it is one of his promises to halve inflation and, at the time, it was around 11%. we have the autumn statement next week, delivered by the chancellor. there is already so much speculation as to what might be in there and the wiggle room the government has had to give something out ahead of a general election.- something out ahead of a general election. there is. from the _ general election. there is. from the perspective - general election. there is. from the perspective of. general election. there is. - from the perspective of whether they have achieved that goal, a lot of factors have contributed. they have talked about wages, public sector wages, but at the same time things like immigration has played a massive role in it, wages are still above 8% so still a long way to go on that. interest rates have risen considerably. what all this means is they don't have that much wiggle room in the autumn statement. i will be surprised if there is any major tax giveaways, which is what the conservative party would like to see. we may have to wait to next year for that, until they can declare it a job done, which you can't do. just below 5% inflation. what we may see something akin to what we have seen before, which is commitment to future giveaways and ideas around cutting taxes in future years or in future statements, which will maybe appease members of the conservative party and also give the public an insight into what the next conservative government could potentially look like. , , w' , government could potentially looklike. , , ., look like. just quickly, before we let you — look like. just quickly, before we let you go. _ look like. just quickly, before we let you go, the _ look like. just quickly, before we let you go, the us - look like. just quickly, before | we let you go, the us inflation figure out this week, what do we expect? irate figure out this week, what do we exoect?— figure out this week, what do weexect? , . ., . we expect? we expect a decline here, as we expect? we expect a decline here. as well. — we expect? we expect a decline here, as well, but _ we expect? we expect a decline here, as well, but the _ we expect? we expect a decline here, as well, but the us - we expect? we expect a decline here, as well, but the us is - here, as well, but the us is much further ahead than the uk is currently. they are below 4% already. we expect that you continue to decline further. again, they are facing some of those challenges that we are, in that they are falling considerably from the peak but this last stretch will be the hardest by far because wage growth is still far too high. hopefully higher interest rates constrain the economy, creating a bit of slack in the labour market will enable that extra mile but at this point, wage growth is not consistent with 2% inflation so the next six months or so will be very important here in getting them over the line but it will be the most difficult part. qm. the most difficult part. 0k, thank you- _ the most difficult part. 0k, thank you. good _ the most difficult part. 0k, thank you. good to - the most difficult part. 0k, thank you. good to see - the most difficult part. 0k, thank you. good to see you. craig erlam from 0anda. let's get some of the day's other news now. china's largest e—commerce company — alibaba — says it recorded year—on—year sales growth during the singles day shopping festival. its rivaljd.com also reported sales volumes at a record high. however, the companies did not release overall revenue figures for the second year in a row. the festival has been used to gauge chinese consumer sentiment, which has been disappointing following the post—pandemic reopening. the former canadian fashion mogul peter nygard has been found guilty of four counts of sexual assault in a canadian court. prosecutors say he had used his wealth and power to lure women to his toronto office building, where they would end up in his private bedroom suite. he was acquitted on two other charges. uk retail giants are urging police forces across the uk to offer more protection to workers as concerns about their safety grow. bosses at sainsbury�*s, boots, m&s and aldi are among dozens of firms to have signed a letter calling for assaults on staff to be better recorded. it comes as research suggests that two in five retail workers are facing abuse from customers on a weekly basis. to australia next, where its largest ports operator is set to keep its sites closed for days as it recovers from a cyber—attack, according to government officials. dp world australia manages around 40% of goods entering and leaving the country. let's go to our asia business hub — suranjana tewari is there. this is going to cause a real slowdown, isn't it?- slowdown, isn't it? that's ri . ht. slowdown, isn't it? that's right- we _ slowdown, isn't it? that's right. we have _ slowdown, isn't it? that's right. we have had - slowdown, isn't it? that's right. we have had newsl slowdown, isn't it? that's - right. we have had news that operations are resuming slowly but, as you say, the breach crippled operations for but, as you say, the breach crippled operations for three days and so there are likely to be knock—on effects with these ports handling so many exports and imports in and out of australia. some of the affected terminals include big ones like melbourne, sydney, brisbane and western australia's freemantle,. dp world is a dubai —based company and expects to move around 5000 containers from the four australian terminals throughout today but that is slightly less than the usual traffic and the company says it is not clear who was behind the attack and that it will take time to find out what happened and to try to protect the internet network that handles the freight movements going forward. that could cause more disruption is over the next few days. australia has seen a rise in cyber attacks since late last year and the government is trying to reform rules and set “p trying to reform rules and set up an agency to help coordinate the response to those hacks. just last week an outage at the telecom company set an aggregate of internet and phone connections to nearly half of australia's population for about 12 hours, so a serious issue for the australian government.— issue for the australian government. thank you. suranjana _ government. thank you. suranjana tewari - government. thank you. suranjana tewari in - government. thank you. - suranjana tewari in singapore. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. bbc news — bringing you different stories| from across the uk. a new drama about the real issues teenagers face, with input from some of those who have first—hand experience. i've been finding it so much easier recently. today, 16—year—old luka is in charge of wardrobe. but this time last year, their depression was so bad, they were off school for a month. yeah, i couldn't get out out bed. ijust stayed in my bed staring at the ceiling. i was just that sad. my friends at school stopped talking to me afterwards, but i've got friends again now and that's really good. the rehearsal�*s all down now, and so now it's the rehearsal�*s all done now, and so now it's time for the filming — and the teenagers really get to do every part of the production. they're on the sound, they're on the clapper, and they're even starring in the production itself. 0k, camera. it's helped me with my self—esteem and my confidence overall. i've become a more... just a more accepting person. for more stories from across the uk, head l to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. we are looking at the top business stories. former manchester united and england football star gary neville is now looking to property to make some money and is counting on investors from around the world to buy up real estate in manchester. he's just launched a luxury hotel and apartment complex in the city, as part of his growing business empire. 0ur asia business correspondent nick marsh caught up with the star, who is on a whirlwind trip to asia. we're launching the sales of our residential units, the w—branded residences, and, yeah, we thought no better place to do that than singapore. we have obviously launched in manchester last week, as well. so manchester, singapore. then we go over to china, to hong kong and to dubai. now you're off to china after this. i'm sure you're aware of everything that's happening with the property market there. is that something that's concerning you? i'm not concerned about it. i mean, we're not coming over here sort of saying that people have to buy — we're saying to people that this is — i think — a stellar project, an exemplar project in the city, a project that... i think we've got a building architecturally that could sit in any major international city in the world and that's my view of manchester — it's a major international city now. and obviously we'll take it over to beijing and to shanghai and to hong kong, and people will either buy or they won't. you know, we've got a lot of people locally in manchester that want to buy, but we want to make sure that this development is sold all around the world. it's a global project, w is a global brand, they demand that from us and we want the best. we want the best that we can possibly get. you've been critical of the uk government in the past — especially its housing policy. i think you're seen as a bit of a voice for working people back in the uk. but now all of a sudden you're here in asia and you're trying to sell your flats to wealthy people here. there's going to be people watching this who are saying, "well, gary neville's just part of the problem." we travelled all around the world as manchester united football players, staying in some of the best hotels. and when i came to manchester, i always felt hospitality standards weren't at the level that we've been exposed to in major international cities, and i want the best for our city. and this particular site, the strategic regeneration framework that was built ten years ago wanted a five—star hotel. it needed sort of apartments that lived alongside that in a high—quality commercial scheme. i'd love to be able to solve the affordable—housing problem in this country, in our country. but one thing i do always sort of tend to — not resent, but i tend to find strange — is that if you speak up for working people that you're not allowed also to make money. you can do both. you can hav

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