statement. i rememberthinking whole are contained within my statement. i remember thinking it was a serious threat and i didn't think that this stress tested the government was make plans on a serious way. past that, i don't have any extra... serious way. past that, i don't have any extra- - -— any extra... one more reference. if we can look— any extra... one more reference. if we can look over — any extra... one more reference. if we can look over two _ any extra... one more reference. if we can look over two pages - any extra... one more reference. if we can look over two pages to - any extra... one more reference. ifl we can look over two pages to page six paragraph 28, continuing the theme. there is a reference to the home office noting the social conferences of these decisions are effectively putting it into a quotes: survivor of the fittest situation. what we certainly seem to see from these minutes, dr ben warner, and i appreciate you are saying this is not all in your memory now, but do you agree that looking at these minutes, it is apparent that what is being discussed is a disaster, a medical disaster, which, either, infact, involves the nhs collapsing, or a situation which is very close to the nhs collapsing?— nhs collapsing? yes, in this hypothetical— nhs collapsing? yes, in this hypothetical scenario, - nhs collapsing? yes, in this . hypothetical scenario, everyone nhs collapsing? yes, in this - hypothetical scenario, everyone is discussing that. if hypothetical scenario, everyone is discussing that.— discussing that. if you're talking about fighting — discussing that. if you're talking about fighting over _ discussing that. if you're talking about fighting over beds - discussing that. if you're talking about fighting over beds and - discussing that. if you're talking | about fighting over beds and the survival of the fittest, that is in truth where you are, isn't it? in this hypothetical scenario. had| truth where you are, isn't it? in i this hypothetical scenario. had an article? hypothetical. _ this hypothetical scenario. had an article? hypothetical. absolutely. i article? hypothetical. absolutely. ma i article? hypothetical. absolutely. may i direct _ article? hypothetical. absolutely. may i direct your— article? hypothetical. absolutely. may i direct your attention - article? hypothetical. absolutely. may i direct your attention to - may i direct your attention to another document which is document 56150? that is on page 1a, the page i wanted to go to. these are the lessons learned, or some of the lessons learned, or some of the lessons learned, or some of the lessons learned from exercise nimbus. did you see this at the time? i nimbus. did you see this at the time? a, ., nimbus. did you see this at the time? ., ,, ., ~ nimbus. did you see this at the time? ., ,, .,~ ., nimbus. did you see this at the time? ., , , w ., ., nimbus. did you see this at the time? ., , , . ~' ., ., let time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you _ time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it- — time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it. casting _ time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it. casting our - time? i cannot speak to it, no. let me show you it. casting our eyes i me show you it. casting our eyes over the types of lessons identified here... looking on the column numbered number one policy issues for further discussion, we see, numbered number one policy issues forfurther discussion, we see, for example, three bullet points down: mental health support for those involved in strategic decision—making of cave and mac 19, consideration of public unrest —— covid—19, public unrest and other similar considerations in the other columns. for example, at the top of the second column, the need for the moral and ethical advisory group to advise on the types of decision that might need to be taken. the point i wanted to make about this, dr ben warner, and ask you about, is that there is plenty of consideration of unrest and difficult decisions, there does not seem to be anything about the fact that the nhs might be collapsing, and trying to do anything to stop the nhs from collapsing. do you remember at all, either at the meeting afterwards, any discussion about the fact that what had been discussed at that exercise seemed to be a series of events involving the nhs collapsing? i do not remember, stations in the room. as i put in my statement, i remember it being overall not a serious attempt to stress test the government's response what serious attempt to stress test the government's response— serious attempt to stress test the government's response what you think it ma have government's response what you think it may have needed _ government's response what you think it may have needed in _ government's response what you think it may have needed in order _ government's response what you think it may have needed in order to - government's response what you think it may have needed in order to take i it may have needed in order to take place if it was going to be such a serious attempt? i’m place if it was going to be such a serious attempt?— place if it was going to be such a serious attempt? i'm not an expert at ward gaming. — serious attempt? i'm not an expert at ward gaming. i _ serious attempt? i'm not an expert at ward gaming, i do _ serious attempt? i'm not an expert at ward gaming, i do not _ serious attempt? i'm not an expert at ward gaming, i do not think- serious attempt? i'm not an expert at ward gaming, i do not think i . at ward gaming, i do not think i should speak to that. in general terms, should speak to that. in general terms. you _ should speak to that. in general terms. you say _ should speak to that. in general terms, you say it _ should speak to that. in general terms, you say it was _ should speak to that. in general terms, you say it was not - should speak to that. in general terms, you say it was not a - should speak to that. in general i terms, you say it was not a serious stress test of the arrangements, what would he have wished to see? i think that it is not... i'm not a an expert in crisis response, i do not know the right way to do emergency planning or how distressed test these responses, this is the only meeting of the type ever sat then, i can say to my opinion at the time but not necessarily the right way to do it. i'd your opinion at the time is that it was not very effective? or deep as an exercise question might s. or deep as an exercise question might 5. let or deep as an exercise question miaht s. , . or deep as an exercise question miahts. , . ., , might 5. let me switch back to this mitiaation might 5. let me switch back to this mitigation strategy _ might 5. let me switch back to this mitigation strategy that _ might 5. let me switch back to this mitigation strategy that was - mitigation strategy that was enforced at the time and ask you about your understanding of it. in broad terms, the purpose and effect of the mitigation strategy is the right to allow the virus to run through the population in order to acquire herd immunity. 0k through the population in order to acquire herd immunity. ok so far? carry on. let acquire herd immunity. ok so far? car on. , ., ~ carry on. let me carry on. where the eak of carry on. let me carry on. where the peak of the — carry on. let me carry on. where the peak of the pandemic, _ carry on. let me carry on. where the peak of the pandemic, off _ carry on. let me carry on. where the peak of the pandemic, off the - carry on. let me carry on. where the peak of the pandemic, off the curve, | peak of the pandemic, off the curve, is reduced as far as possible to mitigate the death toll, but not as much to prevent the population acquiring herd immunity. this there is an extra element i want to add which i know appears in some of your documents later, and that is: the need, perhaps, to prevent the nhs from being overwhelmed. did you understand, back in february, at the time of operation nimbus, that preventing the nhs from being overwhelmed was a critical part of the mitigation strategy? that overwhelmed was a critical part of the mitigation strategy?— the mitigation strategy? at this oint in the mitigation strategy? at this point in time. _ the mitigation strategy? at this point in time, i _ the mitigation strategy? at this point in time, i did _ the mitigation strategy? at this point in time, i did not - the mitigation strategy? at this point in time, i did not think . the mitigation strategy? at this point in time, i did not think i l the mitigation strategy? at this i point in time, i did not think i did know that. do point in time, i did not think i did know that-— know that. do you think that a- -l in: know that. do you think that applying a — know that. do you think that applying a certain _ know that. do you think that applying a certain amount i know that. do you think that applying a certain amount of hindsight, in fact that was the policy at the time? do you think it was knott? i policy at the time? do you think it was knott?— policy at the time? do you think it was knott? ., ., ~ ., ., was knott? i do not know what the oli was was knott? i do not know what the policy was at _ was knott? i do not know what the policy was at the — was knott? i do not know what the policy was at the time. _ was knott? i do not know what the policy was at the time. to - was knott? i do not know what the. policy was at the time. to disappear from view from _ policy was at the time. to disappear from view from the _ policy was at the time. to disappear from view from the nimbus - policy was at the time. to disappeari from view from the nimbus exercise that the need to stop the nhs being overwhelmed was in fact at the top of people's minds during that exercise? i of people's minds during that exercise? ~ ., exercise? i think that during the o eration exercise? i think that during the operation nimbus _ exercise? i think that during the operation nimbus slides, - exercise? i think that during the operation nimbus slides, you i exercise? i think that during the l operation nimbus slides, you can exercise? i think that during the - operation nimbus slides, you can see a mitigation strategy is the one that the government is pursuing, why it is pursuing that is i think not in those slides, i do not remember further discussion on that. let in those slides, i do not remember further discussion on that.- further discussion on that. let me “ust ask further discussion on that. let me just ask for _ further discussion on that. let me just ask for your _ further discussion on that. let me just ask for your reflection - further discussion on that. let me just ask for your reflection on - just ask for your reflection on this. one explanation for the fact that, as far as we can see, the exercise does not seem to have grappled with trying to stop the nhs being overwhelmed, either in the minutes of the meeting or in the lessons learned, may be that it was regarded as something that was perhaps inevitable, or at least, could not be stopped, so there was no need to spend time worrying about it. do you think that that might be an accurate description of the view at the time? i an accurate description of the view at the time?— at the time? i think it is clear from the _ at the time? i think it is clear from the numbers _ at the time? i think it is clear from the numbers in - at the time? i think it is clear from the numbers in those i at the time? i think it is clear- from the numbers in those graphs presented that in the reasonable worst case scenario, the nhs, would struggle. i believe that is in the nimbus slides. whether people saw it as inevitable or not i do not know. at that time, i am not sure i would have formed a view. that at that time, i am not sure i would have formed a view.— have formed a view. that is very fair. let others _ have formed a view. that is very fair. let others carry _ have formed a view. that is very fair. let others carry on - have formed a view. that is very fair. let others carry on with - have formed a view. that is very fair. let others carry on with the i fair. let others carry on with the chronology. let us look at paragraph 39 of page 12. you describe here, dr ben warner, that as you are leaving cobra com you had a conversation with patrick vallance in which you suggested that you should start to attend sage meetings. was a good idea and thereafter you did regularly attend sage meetings, yes? why did you suggest that you should attend sage meetings? i suggest that you should attend sage meetinus? ., ., , ., ., ., meetings? i thought it was a good idea for me _ meetings? i thought it was a good idea for me to _ meetings? i thought it was a good idea for me to have _ meetings? i thought it was a good idea for me to have a _ meetings? i thought it was a good idea for me to have a better- idea for me to have a better scientific understanding of the pandemic. liid scientific understanding of the andemic. , , ., scientific understanding of the pandemic-— scientific understanding of the andemic. , , ., ., pandemic. did you feel at the time that ou pandemic. did you feel at the time that you might _ pandemic. did you feel at the time that you might be _ pandemic. did you feel at the time that you might be missing - pandemic. did you feel at the time - that you might be missing something? what did you just think, this is obviously serious, this is somewhere i can get more involved. i obviously serious, this is somewhere i can get more involved.— i can get more involved. i think that it was _ i can get more involved. i think that it was about _ i can get more involved. i think that it was about making - i can get more involved. i think that it was about making sure l i can get more involved. i think that it was about making sure i | i can get more involved. i think - that it was about making sure i had a clear understanding of the current scientific evidence. 50. a clear understanding of the current scientific evidence.— scientific evidence. so, you attended — scientific evidence. so, you attended sage _ scientific evidence. so, you attended sage meetings i scientific evidence. so, you - attended sage meetings regularly, the first one was the next day. we can look, just to carry on with this theme, to paragraph 44, over on the next page, we can see that only a week or so after that, you started to attend cobra meetings as well. yes. ., ., ,., to attend cobra meetings as well. yes. ., . . to attend cobra meetings as well. yes. ., ., ., , ., yes. you also attended several meetinas yes. you also attended several meetings separately, - yes. you also attended several meetings separately, what i yes. you also attended severall meetings separately, what were yes. you also attended several - meetings separately, what were they? i do not know. thea;r meetings separately, what were they? i do not know-— i do not know. they may have been ad hoc civil contingencies _ i do not know. they may have been ad hoc civil contingencies meetings, i hoc civil contingencies meetings, perhaps? i hoc civil contingencies meetings, erha s? , , , hoc civil contingencies meetings, --erhas? , , , ., perhaps? i believe this might be a uuote perhaps? i believe this might be a quote from _ perhaps? i believe this might be a quote from the — perhaps? i believe this might be a quote from the e-mail. _ perhaps? i believe this might be a quote from the e-mail. right, i i perhaps? i believe this might be a i quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then, quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then. i — quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then. i will _ quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then, i will not _ quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then, i will not take _ quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then, i will not take you - quote from the e-mail. right, i see. and then, i will not take you to i and then, i will not take you to passages in your witness statement, but, is it right that you also attended, first of all, spy m meetings? i attended, first of all, spy m meetings?— attended, first of all, spy m meetin . s? , ., meetings? i believe i did attend those meetings _ meetings? i believe i did attend those meetings but _ meetings? i believe i did attend those meetings but not - meetings? i believe i did attend those meetings but not to i meetings? i believe i did attend those meetings but not to the i meetings? i believe i did attend i those meetings but not to the same frequency as sage. iskiimt those meetings but not to the same frequency as sage-— frequency as sage. what about spy the meetings? _ frequency as sage. what about spy the meetings? you _ frequency as sage. what about spy the meetings? you allude - frequency as sage. what about spy the meetings? you allude to i frequency as sage. what about spy the meetings? you allude to that l frequency as sage. what about spy | the meetings? you allude to that in your statement that i wasn't sure if that was regular. i your statement that i wasn't sure if that was regular.— that was regular. i believe i had a coule of that was regular. i believe i had a couple of meetings _ that was regular. i believe i had a couple of meetings with - that was regular. i believe i had a couple of meetings with james i that was regular. i believe i had a i couple of meetings with james rubin. they do not believe i have attended spy they do not believe i have attended spy b. is they do not believe i have attended s- b. , they do not believe i have attended 5. b, , ., they do not believe i have attended 5. b. , ., ., they do not believe i have attended 5. b. , ., they do not believe i have attended spy b. is it fair to say that around this period _ spy b. is it fair to say that around this period he _ spy b. is it fair to say that around this period he did _ spy b. is it fair to say that around this period he did start _ spy b. is it fair to say that around this period he did start to - spy b. is it fair to say that around this period he did start to attend | this period he did start to attend the series of meetings we have discussed, certainly sage, cobra and some spy a meetings? i’m discussed, certainly sage, cobra and some spy a meetings?— some spy a meetings? i'm not sure about sol-wt, — some spy a meetings? i'm not sure about spi-m, before, _ some spy a meetings? i'm not sure about spi-m, before, my _ some spy a meetings? i'm not sure | about spi-m, before, my memories some spy a meetings? i'm not sure i about spi-m, before, my memories of about spi—m, before, my memories of that are post lockdown. can about spi-m, before, my memories of that are post lockdown.— that are post lockdown. can we assume the _ that are post lockdown. can we assume the scientific _ that are post lockdown. can we assume the scientific training l that are post lockdown. can we i assume the scientific training meant that you are able to engage with and understand the discussions at these meetings? understand the discussions at these meetin . s? , understand the discussions at these meetings? yes. where you are welcome at them? yes- — meetings? yes. where you are welcome at them? yes. did _ meetings? yes. where you are welcome at them? yes. did you _ meetings? yes. where you are welcome at them? yes. did you act _ meetings? yes. where you are welcome at them? yes. did you act as _ meetings? yes. where you are welcome at them? yes. did you act as a - at them? yes. did you act as a conduit between _ at them? yes. did you act as a conduit between the _ at them? yes did you act as a conduit between the scientists in these meetings and number ten. i these meetings and numberten. i think it is fair to say that i discussed things with the scientists, i was also aware it was important that i did not speak for patrick or chris in their roles as csa or cmo. patrick or chris in their roles as csa or (mo-— patrick or chris in their roles as csa or cmo. one of the systemic issues addressed _ csa or cmo. one of the systemic issues addressed by _ csa or cmo. one of the systemic issues addressed by the - csa or cmo. one of the systemic issues addressed by the inquiry l csa or cmo. one of the systemic| issues addressed by the inquiry is how well the system of passing information and views from sage and the other committees on one hand up to the decision makers in downing street worked. we know that a key part of that was chris whitty and patrick vallance. did you see yourself as being an extra means by which the information could pass from the committees up to downing street, or did you in fact ensure that that was not the case? i did not see myself _ that that was not the case? i did not see myself as _ that that was not the case? i did not see myself as that, - that that was not the case? i did not see myself as that, by i that that was not the case? i c c not see myself as that, by listening to sage and talking to scientists, i found a view and participated in conversations. did found a view and participated in conversations.— found a view and participated in conversations. did you feel at the time that there _ conversations. did you feel at the time that there was _ conversations. did you feel at the time that there was in _ conversations. did you feel at the time that there was in fact - conversations. did you feel at the time that there was in fact any i conversations. did you feel at the l time that there was in fact any sort of shortfall or deficit in the way that information was passing between the committee meetings into downing street? ., ., . street? throughout the pandemic, i thou~ht street? throughout the pandemic, i thought there _ street? throughout the pandemic, i thought there was _ street? throughout the pandemic, i thought there was a _ street? throughout the pandemic, i thought there was a lack _ street? throughout the pandemic, i thought there was a lack of - thought there was a lack of scientific capability within the different teams and groups i worked with. i different teams and groups i worked with. . different teams and groups i worked with. , ., _, with. i will pause there, do you mean a lack — with. i will pause there, do you mean a lack of _ with. i will pause there, do you mean a lack of scientific - with. i will pause there, do you i mean a lack of scientific capability on sage or in downing street? ida? on sage or in downing street? no, sor , i on sage or in downing street? no, sorry. i meant— on sage or in downing street? iifr, sorry, i meant generally across government. obviously, the people on sage are very good at what they do, they are very thoughtful scientists, and as i say my report, i spent time talking to them to make sure that i was as informed as possible as to views. i was as informed as possible as to views. . was as informed as possible as to views. , , ., , ., ., views. i interrupted you, you are sa in: views. i interrupted you, you are saying that _ views. i interrupted you, you are saying that you _ views. i interrupted you, you are saying that you did _ views. i interrupted you, you are saying that you did think- views. i interrupted you, you are saying that you did think that i views. i interrupted you, you are i saying that you did think that there was a lack of scientific understanding across the government departments he worked with. in general and departments he worked with. in generaland in the departments he worked with. in general and in the specific instance, i think that within cobra and the cabinet office, shall we say, i was concerned about their understanding of what sage was saying and how that was being translated into the documents produced for ministers. share translated into the documents produced for ministers. are you able to live as produced for ministers. are you able to give as an — produced for ministers. are you able to give as an example _ produced for ministers. are you able to give as an example of _ produced for ministers. are you able to give as an example of that - produced for ministers. are you able to give as an example of that sort i to give as an example of that sort of concern?— to give as an example of that sort of concern? ., ,., ., , , ., ~ of concern? the reason that i speak to that is i — of concern? the reason that i speak to that is i sent _ of concern? the reason that i speak to that is i sent an _ of concern? the reason that i speak to that is i sent an e-mail_ of concern? the reason that i speak to that is i sent an e-mail of- of concern? the reason that i speak to that is i sent an e-mail of that i to that is i sent an e—mail of that regard just after lockdown for specific instances, but no, i cannot speak to it. specific instances, but no, i cannot speakto it— specific instances, but no, i cannot seakto it. ., ~ speak to it. thank you, we may come back to that — speak to it. thank you, we may come back to that issue _ speak to it. thank you, we may come back to that issue in _ speak to it. thank you, we may come back to that issue in due _ speak to it. thank you, we may come back to that issue in due course. i back to that issue in due course. let ours take the chronology forward a little bit, let us go through towards the end of february. you are now attending regular sage meetings. it is right, isn't it, that the picture about how the virus was taking hold in the country was becoming clear during this period? in particular, it was the view of sage that sustained community transmission was present, and was hardening, during the latter half of february? i hardening, during the latter half of februa ? ., ., ~' hardening, during the latter half of februa ? ., ., ~ ., , february? i do not think that is true. tellers. _ february? i do not think that is true. tellers. in _ february? i do not think that is true. tellers. in the _ february? i do not think that is true. tellers. in the second i february? i do not think that is | true. tellers. in the second half february? i do not think that is i true. tellers. in the second half of march, true. tellers. in the second half of march. spi-m _ true. tellers. in the second half of march, spi-m say _ true. tellers. in the second half of march, spi-m say it _ true. tellers. in the second half of march, spi-m say it is _ true. tellers. in the second half of march, spi-m say it is likely i true. tellers. in the second half of march, spi-m say it is likely an i march, spi—m say it is likely an almost certain over the next few weeks, but i do not know if that is true over the

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