next week which is why we have seen panic buying on the islands of people stocking up with goods because they feel there could be an interruption here in the islands cut off for a few days and it will not be possible to get goods replenished but the island authorities say there is a serious risk people need to stay away from the coast and off the road and at home if possible because there is a threat to life but they say the are ensuring goods can get through so even if there is disruption to flights and boat services things will not run out on the islands. but people are concerned and the sort of wind and tide forecast would be the highest people seen for 30 or 35 years in the 1987 storm had a really bad effect here injersey. the 1987 storm had a really bad effect here in jersey.— the 1987 storm had a really bad effect here in jersey. there have been warnings _ effect here in jersey. there have been warnings about _ effect here in jersey. there have been warnings about damage . effect here in jersey. there have been warnings about damage to | been warnings about damage to peoples property and we have seen with storm babet there can be damage to peoples properties so how are people preparing? to peoples properties so how are peeple preparing?— people preparing? although the weather is quite _ people preparing? although the weather is quite clear— people preparing? although the weather is quite clear and - people preparing? although the| weather is quite clear and bright people preparing? although the i weather is quite clear and bright at the moment there are heavy downpours and wind picking up. we saw some builders earlier trying to make safe a building site and clamp down anything loose and putting sheets across some of their building equipment to make sure stuff does not blow away. there have been warnings to make sure pets and secure and we know the zoo will have to close. banks and schools all expected to close tomorrow perhaps into friday. the authorities say it will have to be friday morning when they assess the damage that is because tomorrow and how much work they will have to do to recover it and how quickly things can return to normal but the next 2a hours could be quite serious disruption. let's go to northern ireland, where heavy rain continues to fall, there's been flooding in counties down, antrim and armagh, and businesses have been badly damaged in newry. live now to newry to speak to our ireland correspondent, chris page. the flooding that has happened here in newry is the worst for half a century and is the flood water has receded you can see the evidence of the efforts of business owners made, particularly on monday night trying to protect their shops and offices and restaurants from the rising waters but sadly in many cases there was a limited amount they could do to prevent really bad damage. for example one restaurant here has told me that he thought an army could not have kept the water out and when it rose eight rows very quickly. the better news today is the really heavy downpours we have had past few daysin heavy downpours we have had past few days in northern ireland seem to have passed. there are certain are still a few grey clouds around but the other weather warning, the amber warning which indicated it could be disruption expired at nine o'clock this morning and the focus here is turning to the clean—up operation. about 80 businesses in this part of newry have sustained really bad damage and business owners say it will probably cost them thousands of pounds and could take months to get back to normal. also some roads have been closed and the motorway between belfast and dublin was affected for a while and some railway lines had to close because railway tracks were submerged and gradually the disruption to transport has eased but what has happened here will live long in the memory for everybody living in newry but the restaurant service and business owners and others will count the cost for some time to come. let's get more details on the storm now and head to the bbc weather centre and speak to meteorologist,chris fawkes. chris, what's the cause of this latest storm? storm ciaran on the satellite pictures this area of cloud. i have overlaid the jet stream on this area of cloud and you can see it blow pretty quickly. they are blowing at around 200 mph which is causing the rapidly developing storm system to emerge. this is what storm ciaran is, the result of the jet stream caused by powerful temperature contrast we have this time of year across the northern hemisphere and the polar region starting to get cold and remnants of heat from the summer in the south. certain parts of the uk are preparing for the worst — is it going to be bad everywhere? it is not. one of the interesting things with storm ciaran as the variability of the wind strength. the met office has a couple of amber warnings or parts of southern england with wind gusts of 70 mph are 80 mph but ten the channel islands and north west france wind could go over 100 mph, structural damage with lots of trees brought down and particularly given the leaves are still on the trees after the relatively mild autumn. i expect widespread transport disruption and almost certainly some significant disruption to power supply. it won't be bad everywhere because if you look at some of the wind strength across parts of southern england, southampton 57 mph, a windy day but we see it often during autumn and a similar picture in london with gusts of a7. storm ciaran brings a zone of violent wind and behind the cold front is across north—west france into the channel islands. across the south of england the wind will really start to get going overnight tonight with the isles of scilly and cornwall and kent. the strong winds are really limited to parts of the south—west and south—east and especially the channel islands and north west france where the wind will be violent with very significant damage. will be violent with very siunificant damaue. , ._ , significant damage. some tense days ahead for residents _ significant damage. some tense days ahead for residents and _ significant damage. some tense days ahead for residents and different - ahead for residents and different parts of the uk. let's get some of the day's other news now. tens of thousands of children in the west of scotland are off school today because of a strike by support staff. non—teaching staff — including caterers and cleaners — are walking out across glasgow, renfrewshire, east renfrewshire and inverclyde, in a dispute over pay. local authorities say they can't afford higher wages. two further arrests have been made by officers investigating the felling of the world—famous sycamore gap tree in northumberland. the landmark, which was planted in the late 1800s and sat beside hadrian's wall, was chopped down overnight on 27th september. northumbria police said two men, both aged in their 30s, were arrested on suspicion of criminal damage. they have both since been released on bail as enquiries continue, the force said. a 16—year—old boy and a man in his 60s who have already been a metropolitan police commander has been sacked for failing to provide a sample after being accused of smoking cannabis. julian bennett had served with the force for more than a0 years and wrote part of its drugs strategy. a disciplinary panel was told that scotland yard rejected his offer to resign. mr bennett's lawyers say they will appeal. now let's have a full weather forecast and the latest details on storm ciaran, here's carol. hello again. storm ciaran will be making its presence felt later on today, tonight and also through tomorrow in the sense that we're going to have some heavy rain falling on ground that is already saturated, exacerbating the flooding risk and also damaging winds in the south and the channel islands where we could have gusts up to 90 miles an hour — with exposure, possibly even more than that. now we've got rain continuing to move northwards across scotland, some snow on the highest ground. and we're also looking at a blustery day with sunshine and showers, but some of the showers will merge to give some longer spells of rain. and then later we see storm ciaran starting to show its hand, coming into the south—west, temperatures ranging from six in the north to 1a in the south. so if we pick up storm ciaran, as it comes in, we'll have gusts of about 70 miles an hour in the south—west. then there'll be a lull as the centre of the low pressure goes through and then the winds will strengthen once again, coupled with all this heavy rain. but for scotland and northern ireland, it's going to be a drier night and a cold one. so this deep area of low pressure is actually storm ciaran. and tomorrow it's going to be edging slowly northwards and eastwards with its rain. and as you can see from the isobars, it's also going to be windy. the met office has two amber weather warnings in force, one for south west england and also south west wales. this kicks in at 3:00 in the morning until lunchtime. this one across southern counties and into the far south east kicks in at six in the morning and runs till eight in the evening. but the jersey metservice has a red wind warning out for the channel islands. gusts of 90 miles an hour are quite possible more with exposure in open water, for example. and as we head through thursday, we continue with the heavy rain across england and wales getting into eastern scotland, out towards the west, northwest scotland and also parts of northern ireland staying largely dry with some sunshine temperatures ten to 12 degrees, but it's going to be windy. and as we head through thursday night and into friday, you can see how the storm tracks off in the direction of the north sea. but we still have this curl of a weather front. so what you'll find is more rain to come in across eastern scotland and northeast england. frequent sharp showers across wales, in the southwest, in between something drier and brighter. and also the winds will slowly start to ease. we return to the uk covert inquiry, which isjust resume we return to the uk covert inquiry, which is just resume for the afternoon. which isjust resume for the afternoon-— which isjust resume for the afternoon. _, , . ., which isjust resume for the afternoon. , . ., afternoon. the consequence of some ofthe afternoon. the consequence of some of the behaviours. _ afternoon. the consequence of some of the behaviours. -- _ afternoon. the consequence of some of the behaviours. -- the _ afternoon. the consequence of some of the behaviours. -- the uk- afternoon. the consequence of some of the behaviours. -- the uk covid i of the behaviours. —— the uk covid inquiry. the narrowed understanding, the lack of real life experience that you observed on the part of those in downing street. and you will recall that we looked at that paragraph of your statement where you brought together those themes which you thought were represented in the issue about prison releases. and one of the themes that you referred to was a general lack of knowledge or understanding on the part of decision—makers of how large parts of the state operate. and with that in mind, i would like to ask you some questions about understanding of the nhs on the part of borisjohnson, his ministers and so on. the nhs which, of course, was of such central importance to the pandemic. as we have heard, the lockdown was caused by an understanding that there was a need to present —— prevent the nhs being overwhelmed. with that in mind, could we look at page 39 of your witness statement? but five or six lines from the bottom, it says, i do not remember anyone working in the centre or who was part of the conversations who had a detailed understanding of the way the nhs operated. this is not unusual or unique to that time. social policy and the operational management of the state is also —— always underrepresented in the centre of power,