faisal islam the latest geopolitical tensions and how it could drive up prices for all, especially poor countries. we've got ourforecast down from 1.7% in april, down to 0.8%. we have already said risks were the downside when we made this forecast was down by almost one percentage point. there are number of factors, the continuing crisis in the world that we see and now of course we have the crisis in the middle east. we have the slowdown in growth in china, we also have high interest rates that have continued. we see weak demand across the board in most sectors and most geographies. that's why we cut the forecast. how much of this is actual policy? we're hearing from the west this idea of nearshoring, or income of rebuilding supply chain away from east asia. how much of this is here to stay and how much of a problem is that? we saw there is more to it ongoing now within politically similar blocks number between locks that are dissimilar. that is some indication. we look at certain sectors and we begin to see emerging signs of fragmentation. we hope this will not go too far because we showed that the cost of fragmentation in world trade will be very costly. at the wto we've already let it be known that from our work and simulations we would lose 5% of global gdp in the long term. there will be double—digit welfare losses for poor countries and emerging markets. the head of the world trade organisation talked about concerns of the chinese economy and in a couple of hours it will raise radiator for will raise radiatorfor september, will raise radiator for september, closely watched for indications of a recovery in the world was like second—largest economy. stock market in hong kong and shanghai rose thursday after chinese arena will find increased steaks and full of the country's largest bank. purchases by the banks would have cost more than $65 million. the fund plans to further increase its holdings in the bounds of the next six months according to the regulatory findings. moving to the slump in personal computer sales. but that could soon come to an end, according to the tech research firm gartner which is forecasting a rebound of shipments in the final quarter of this year. that would be an increase from the 9% drop in thejune to september quarter of this year — that's the preliminary analysis. but hp was the exception — staying resilient in the third quarter. but the firm's director analyst mikako kitagawa says growing geopolitical tensions could impact the industry. right now there are a lot of uncertainties and also the potential risk of geopolitical situation which will affect the global economy. but we do not think that itself will immediately affect the pc demand. let's go further. artificial intelligence has been the theme across sectors. how do you see that when it comes to pc demand? the bottom line is we do not think that al is not going to increase the additional demand. ai is coming to pcs but the big question is that our concern in the business is going to buy pcs because ai is in it? the answer is no but that maybe some people got really excited and then buy it. and some people can see the benefit. but i really don't think that because of the ai in pcs then they are going to shorten their life cycle. for instance, if pcs are only three or two years old you can still use it. but ai pcs coming into the market, are you going to buy it? probably not. that's really a bottom line for us. overall what is your outlook for the pc market for next year? for the pc market for next ear? ., �* ., ., ~' year? right now we're looking at the 596 growth, _ year? right now we're looking at the 596 growth, but - year? right now we're looking at the 596 growth, but we - year? right now we're looking l at the 596 growth, but we really at the 5% growth, but we really have to think about how the geopolitical situation is going to go, which really started before we had last forecast, so we will have to forecast at the end of the year and that might have low numbers, we really don't know yet. let's go to the united states, where ford motor company said it is at the limit of what it can offer the united auto workers union. the comment comes after the union unexpectedly walked out of the car—maker's highly profitable suv and pick—up truck plant in kentucky. and as the industrial action is in its fourth week. the bbc�*s north america business correspondent michelle fleury reports. a stark warning from a senior ford official during a cup with investors, saying the car—maker cannot afford to improve its offer without damaging its future. we're at the limit. going further will hurt our ability to invest in the business like we need to invest. his comments come a day after the uaw unexpectedly launched a strike at ford's kentucky truck plant. the car maker's largest plant of the world and its most profitable. generating $25 billion in revenue, about a sixth of its global revenue. we're quite surprised at the escalation. we made an outstanding offer — it's great wages, great benefits, we've been bargaining in good faith. in the past few days ford said it had been negotiating potential options for future battery plant workers. electric vehicle battery plants you may recall have been a major point of contention for the union. in bargaining with the three major automakers, stellantis, gm and ford. well, one man who thinks one is on the way and sooner than you might think. speaking to the bbc�*s talking business weekly, billionaire property developer rick caruso thinks that interest rates and new uncertainty over the conflict in the middle east mean a recession could be inevitable. i don't think there's a way to avoid a recession. i just don't think there is. with the height of the interest rates that we have right now and the fact that we still have a strong economy, we still have the consumer spending, the fed is going to have to continue to put more pressure. my fear is they've gone so big, so far, we haven't felt the full effects. but what i'm seeing of fellow chairmen, ceos of companies and executives, everybody is pulling back that i know of. and that's going to cause some level of a recession in my opinion. i don't think it's going to be deep. i think it's pretty minor. i think we will get through it. i don't see how were going to avoid it unless the fed starts pivoting and dropping rates but they won't drop rates until they see some level of a recession and cost of goods actually going down. it's going to be a bit of a self—fulfilling prophecy, i think. when is it coming? when do you think a recession would hit? again, i wish i had a crystal ball because if i did i wouldn't have to go to work. i think it's probably first quarter. i would say it's the beginning of next year. and tojust throw a current topic in the mix on this, what's happening in the middle east right now with israel, that is going to have an impact on all of this. and the fed and the equivalent in england and all around the world is going to meet today saying, how is this impacting the economy, how is it impacting rates, how's it can impact the public marketz, how will it impact the bond market? there's a lot of unknowns now. and unknowns never help the market. and unknowns never help corporations. and that will give a little bit more fuel to everybody being more cautious until people understand the impact at what's going on in israel. and i don't think we're going to understand that for quite some time, u nfortu nately. that was a glimpse of the full interview. you can catch that and other interviews about why companies are asking employees to return to the office right here on the bbc news channel. we are keeping a close watch on oil markets as the death toll rises in israel and gaza, prices met elegans thursday but were reversed after us government report showed its crude inventory is rose by 10.2 billion, million, rather, 10.2 million barrels. that was much higher than 500,000 polarised analysts expected, and what it looks like as we speak. $86 is where brent crude is out a direct comparison before the conflict it was around 84 so competitor it is a $2 rise. that's where things stand. this is a story were tracking closely along with all the updates continuing out of gaza as well as israel. for that and much more, stay with bbc news and our website. thanks very much for watching. stay with us. in an up cycling truck in hadley, recycling is under way. she using her skill and creativity to help solve the shameful problem. along with her partnerjames, the college riderfashion more her partnerjames, the college rider fashion more sustainable, starting on their own doorstep. who could forget these shocking images of the tents and camping equipment left behind after leeds festival? hundreds of items treated as disposable and destined for landfill. it items treated as disposable and destined for landfill.— destined for landfill. it was rim, destined for landfill. it was grim. to — destined for landfill. it was grim. to be _ destined for landfill. it was grim, to be honest. - destined for landfill. it was grim, to be honest. a - destined for landfill. it was grim, to be honest. a lot. destined for landfill. it was | grim, to be honest. a lot of people have a throwaway mindset, but tents are not single use. they are very durable fabric which could be used again and again. when i sawjust how much stuff had been left behind, it was really shocking. been left behind, it was really shockina. �* ., ., shocking. along with other charities and _ shocking. along with other charities and up _ shocking. along with other charities and up cyclist, i shocking. along with other. charities and up cyclist, james charities and up cyclist, james retreated tents and sleeping bags to make it into something new. ~ ., ., bags to make it into something new. ., ., ., new. we got a laptop case, a bum bag. — new. we got a laptop case, a bum bag. we — new. we got a laptop case, a bum bag, we got _ new. we got a laptop case, a bum bag, we got this - new. we got a laptop case, ai bum bag, we got this festival bag, supposed to be made like that. �* , . , ., that. it's an interesting and excitin: that. it's an interesting and exciting opportunity - that. it's an interesting and. exciting opportunity because we've — exciting opportunity because we've never worked without material _ we've never worked without material before and we got a lot with _ material before and we got a lot with cotton and silk because that's usually the secondhand material we find and reuse. _ secondhand material we find and reuse. so — secondhand material we find and reuse. so i — secondhand material we find and reuse, so i find the whole experimentation process very interesting. experimentation process very interesting-— experimentation process very | interesting._ for interesting. voice-over: for more stories _ interesting. voice-over: for more stories from _ interesting. voice-over: for more stories from across - interesting. voice-over: for more stories from across the | more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. hey, i'mjulia with the catch up. tonight — the latest in the middle east and warning about vapes, and the eras movie premiere. but first, it's a kill or be killed mentality. that's how one anti knife campaigner in the west midlands put it. malachi says kids as young as nine are carrying knives because they're scared of being attacked. the west midlands police area has the highest knife crime rate in england and the number of under—18s arrested has gone up by 56% since 2019. young kids aged nine, ten, 11, 12 shouldn't be saying kill or be killed. it's not a movie. malachi says knives are often glamorised, but he and others are working to change things. some other stories now — the government is arranging flights to get stranded britons out of israel as fighting continues. the first plane is leaving on thursday with more flights in the coming days if it's safe. a 12—year—old spent four days in a coma and suffered lung damage after vaping from the age of nine. the government is trying to stop kids getting vapes and sarah is warning others not to use them right right before going to bed, the first thing i'd do is take a drop of my cough and then put it on the pill and then go to sleep. and the red carpet has been rolled out for taylor swift's era tour movie premiere. even beyonce came to support. it's already made more than $100 million in advance ticket sales, making it the biggest concert film of all time. and we'll leave you with ten seconds of tiny art. ben wilson, aka the chewing gum man, has been painting art onto little bits of gum on london's millennium bridge for a decade, but new cleaning plans mean it will soon be blasted off. you're all caught up now. have a good night. hello and welcome to sportsday. spain spoil the scottish celebrations in seville — a win for the hosts means scotland still not totally assured euro 2024 qualification. it's a record breaking defeat as south africa trounce australia. their woeful world cup still without a win. as wales name their team, we look ahead to the tantalising quarter final ties this weekend at the rugby world cup. hello and thanks for joining us on sportday.

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