if the conflict spreads to other parts of the region especially iran, it could immediately impact well prices because even though iran has been under sections for the last two years it has pumped well quietly and provided them to customers across the globe. the white house has turned a blind eye especially with the last year or two because it's been trying to smooth relationships between iran and the western world. now if the white house enforces the sanction that means the supplier from sanction that means the supplierfrom iran could be cut off and comes at a time when oil supplies have been tightening because saudi arabia and russia, the two largest exporters of oil in the world, also part of 0pec+, have been reducing oil production by 1.3 alien barrels per day and will keep doing it until the end of the year. there is a good chanceit the year. there is a good chance it could continue into next year as well so if this happens and they will be a where there will be less oil supply, where there will be less oil supply, more demand, and that would lead to higher prices. some analysts are talking about oil prices hundred dollar mark or preaching that if the scenario plays out. joining me now is russ mould, investment director at aj bell. good morning to you. no surprise at all that we would see a flight to safety. our reporter look to the price of oil, just shy of $88 per barrel. it did spike monday but relatively speaking it is still not as high as we saw a couple of weeks ago, is it?— of weeks ago, is it? no, and aaain it of weeks ago, is it? no, and again it comes _ of weeks ago, is it? no, and again it comes back - of weeks ago, is it? no, and again it comes back to - of weeks ago, is it? no, and again it comes back to the l again it comes back to the point about whether this unfortunate and unpleasant conflict is contained within its current environment or whether allies on both sides join in either economically or militarily. a lot of investors will think back to 1973 when there was a big oil price shock after the yom kippur war when the arab organisation of oil exporters imposed sanctions on supporters of israel and wilfully cut off supply. that created a huge spike in oil price, stoked a low inflation and began a spiral that took interest rates to about 15, 16% and american interest rates to 19% by the turn of the decade. that's the fear factor, what might happen next, how this does develop and what other countries in the middle east do in response to all this. bond markets were shut on wall street on monday and we activity in asian time. what is going on with other assets like bonds, gold, it's all going on? yes, the gold price has snuck up yes, the gold price has snuck up a bit, not much, by the conflict is relatively contained, bond prices have started to rise, yields are coming down all the american cash market showed yesterday you've seen activity overnight and other haven assets unlike the us dollar and japanese yen have risen, a classic knee—jerk reaction with markets for a boat is the situation develops. how concerned are you? under any circumstances, looking at it from a narrow perspective of financial markets or more broadly if you start to see alliesjoining in on either side economically or militarily, that would escalate the situation and at the moment markets, there seems to be a lot of diplomatic activity to prevent that happening and try to find a solution between the two. in to find a solution between the two. , ., ., ., ~ two. in terms of the artwork for the global— two. in terms of the artwork for the global economy, - two. in terms of the artwork i for the global economy, there has been so many curveballs that have hit the global economy in recent years. this is another one and a very unpredictable war taking place that could have huge consequences.- that could have huge consequences. that could have huge conseuuences. , ., , consequences. one thing people do not want _ consequences. one thing people do not want to _ consequences. one thing people do not want to see, _ consequences. one thing people do not want to see, a _ consequences. one thing people do not want to see, a war- consequences. one thing people do not want to see, a war in - do not want to see, a war in the middle east for humanitarian and financial reasons but also an oil price shock would be top of the list of things people don't want to see because if you get a repeat of the 70s the inflationary, wage growth, inflationary, wage growth, higher interest rates will be very unpleasant and there are so much more debt in there are so much more debt in the global system now, you would not interest rates in double digits to create enormous economic pain. indeed. thank yom _ enormous economic pain. indeed. thank yom we — enormous economic pain. indeed. thank you. we appreciate - enormous economic pain. indeed. thank you. we appreciate your . thank you. we appreciate your analysis. russ mould, investment director at aj bell. now let's turn to some of the other business news, and the uk's labour party has said it will fight the next election on the economy after the shadow chancellor rachel reeves revealed policies to bring in what she called an "era of economic security." speaking at the party's annual conference in liverpool, she unveiled plans aimed at speeding up projects like battery factories and sg infrastructure. in a few hours time we will get the international monetary fund's latest assesment of the health of the uk economy in their biannual world economic outlook report and today keir starmer — the labour party leader — will be making the keynote speech in liverpool where he will promise the country "a decade of national renewal" if elected. live now to janet mui, head of market analysis, rbc brewin dolphin. hello to you. so interesting. what did you make of what rachel reeves said yesterday? . rachel reeves said yesterday? , good morning and thanks for having me. ithink good morning and thanks for having me. i think she wants to focus on long—term investments, as you mentioned, and she will finance it by borrowing. that's a contentious point, so usually borrowing was not subject a lot of scrutiny by the uk government as we saw, the uk government as we saw, the uk government bond yield has soared over the past few years by a combination of factors. it is going to be more costly to bar in the future so she will have to convince the financial market she can get value from all these investments that would generate growth, they would generate growth, they would pay for itself. she will also need to convince that labour will stick to its fiscal rules which means that by increasing the day—to—day spending she will have to increase taxes by a certain extent. it increase taxes by a certain extent. , . increase taxes by a certain extent. ., . extent. it is a balancing act. as ou extent. it is a balancing act. as you say. _ extent. it is a balancing act. as you say. so _ extent. it is a balancing act. as you say, so far _ extent. it is a balancing act. as you say, so far rachel. as you say, so far rachel reeves the labour party have been clear we will stick to the fiscal rules, they want to be clear that they are going to bring in economic security and not chaos. but also, as you pointed out, many are arguing when it comes to paying for public spending with money that's created from economic growth, that's not something thatis growth, that's not something that is easily achieved in a short period of time, suddenly, and also its very unpredictable. we are raising taxes, you know what's coming in, don't you? taxes, you know what's coming in. don't you?— in, don't you? there are multiple _ in, don't you? there are multiple difficult - in, don't you? there are multiple difficult fronts, j in, don't you? there are i multiple difficult fronts, for instance, the uk economy is subject to international factors, for instance, we are seeing oil prices rising because of the geopolitical tension, so this is something thatis tension, so this is something that is out of our control and impacts us directly. inflation is a problem so economists generally expect inflation to slow 2% but likely still above. it will be difficult and the long—term growth prospects of the uk is still pretty dull. the international monetary fund previously estimated uk long—term growth is around 1.5% so it'll be a difficult task to stimulate growth. and particularly inflation is coming back, a lot of people believe that we are unlikely to go back to the previous low interest rate environment and inflation could be permanently higher, so it will be a challenge. it higher, so it will be a challenge. higher, so it will be a challenue. . ., , challenge. it certainly well for anyone _ challenge. it certainly well for anyone in _ challenge. it certainly well for anyone in government | challenge. it certainly well - for anyone in government right now. thank you very much indeed. janet mui, head of market analysis, rbc brewin dolphin. as we mentioned, the imf economic report is out and we will make sure update you here on bbc news on that. to ireland now, where the country will present its budget for 202a. on paper ireland is a eurozone success story. 15 years after the housing bubble collapse, which risked the country going bust, it has bounced back by redeveloping itself as europe's main tech hub. the corporate tax revenue brought in by companies such as alphabet and meta means ireland is set to have a budget surplus exceeding 10 billion euros. next year's windfall is predicted to be even larger. but what should the country do with all that extra cash? let's speak now to dr loretta o'sullivan, chief economist for ey ireland. good morning to you. i am sure many finance ministers are looking at island green with envy. what will they say today in this budget?— in this budget? yes, it is a aood in this budget? yes, it is a good decision _ in this budget? yes, it is a good decision we - in this budget? yes, it is a good decision we are - in this budget? yes, it is a good decision we are in, i in this budget? yes, it is a i good decision we are in, the irish economy has shown remarkable resilience and recent global shots such as covid and the war in ukraine and while growth is expected to moderate in coming years it comes after a period of exceptional performance and that has fed through to the labour market and fed through to the public finances. we have a record of employment, the unappointed rate is very low, and also income tax, vat and business receipts are healthy safer budget 2020 for the government has a strong position and we expect it will try to strike a balance today, supporting households and businesses in terms of the cost of living and continue to invest in infrastructure in areas like housing and energy and started to prepare for increases in age—related and climate spending. increases in age-related and climate spending.— increases in age-related and climate spending. there will be no change _ climate spending. there will be no change i _ climate spending. there will be no change i assume _ climate spending. there will be no change i assume in - climate spending. there will be no change i assume in the - no change i assume in the corporate tax rate environment which is extremely low, am i right to say it is at 12.5% which is attracting all the big tech companies to be based there, why i would is able to make all this money? so ireland has had a low — make all this money? so ireland has had a low corporation - make all this money? so ireland has had a low corporation tax i has had a low corporation tax of 12.5% and side up to the oecd so there will be some change to that and it'll moved to 15% in line with where other countries are going. it is one of the factors that attracted companies over the years but it is only one. we also have strengths in terms of being a member of the european union and english—speaking country, young and talented workforce, and a pro—business environment. all of that has helped establish ireland as an investment location for high—value international sectors ranging from pharmaceuticals and medical devices to attack, as you said, and financial services. but it's also the case we have a vibrant domestic economy, strong entrepreneurial sector including agri— food, tach, and tourism. including agri- food, tach, and tourism. ,, , , , tourism. quickly, i believe my microphone — tourism. quickly, i believe my microphone was _ tourism. quickly, i believe my microphone was not _ tourism. quickly, i believe my microphone was not up. - tourism. quickly, i believe my microphone was not up. i - tourism. quickly, i believe my l microphone was not up. i repeat the question. describe the boost that ireland has gained from life post breaks because it is an appeal position work it is an appeal position work it is an appeal position work it is in the eu, the european union, yet has significantly strong access to the united kingdom, of course a very fractious situation with the windsor framework now in place and working. dorcas through what boost that has brought to the irish economy.— the irish economy. ireland has lona had the irish economy. ireland has long had a _ the irish economy. ireland has long had a close _ the irish economy. ireland has long had a close relationship l long had a close relationship with the uk and of course member of the european union, the college—level area applies ireland and the uk and so that is mad that we are able to continue to work and co—operate together and ireland and the uk remains an important trading partnerfor remains an important trading partner for the remains an important trading partnerfor the uk. remains an important trading partnerforthe uk. in remains an important trading partnerfor the uk. in northern ireland the discussions happening around the wicket is a framework and we hope to see some movement in that in the near term. some movement in that in the near term-— dr loretta o'sullivan, chief economist for ey ireland. appreciate your thoughts. let's get some of the day's other news now. samsung's profits are expected to drop by 80% compared to a year earlier as the effects of an ongoing global chip glut drive losses. the world's biggest maker of memory chips, smartphones and televisions will announce its third—quarter preliminary earnings results on wednesday. the chip division is traditionally samsung's biggest earner. the american entrepreneur and philanthropist, chuck feeney, has died at the age of 92, after spending a lifetime giving away his fortune. chuck feeney made his money selling luxury duty—free goods to travellers. he set up a foundation, atlantic philanthropies, which had given away $8 billion to good causes around the world by the time it was dissolved. mr feeney said it was much more fun to give while you were alive than when you were dead. still to come, it is world mental health day today. we look at why there is still a stigma around mental health in the workplace. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. a stunning backdrop to the war memorial. the cenotaph has stood here for decades, but now a new mural has everybody talking. it was painted by the artist tee2sugars. painted by the artist tee2$ugars.- painted by the artist tee2$u~ars. , , , painted by the artist tee2$u~ars. , , tee2$ugars. the sponsorship has been -- the _ tee2$ugars. the sponsorship has been -- the response _ tee2$ugars. the sponsorship has been -- the response has - tee2$ugars. the sponsorship has been -- the response has been l been —— the response has been crazy. i think because of what it symbolises, people giving allies for what we have today. the man who came up with the idea was local businessman bob smith. ., ., , idea was local businessman bob smith. ., . smith. the window was cracked, black patches — smith. the window was cracked, black patches all _ smith. the window was cracked, black patches all over _ smith. the window was cracked, black patches all over it. - black patches all over it. quite depressing. itjust struck me to make a lovely thing and put a mural on it. the mural is now complete and will be the focal point for remembrance events next month. the community hopes it will be a place together for generations to a place togetherfor generations to come. you're live with bbc news. let's continue with the business coverage. china experienced a boom in travel and consumer spending during golden week, which ended last friday. that's according to official figures, just out, that show domestic tourism has rebounded to pre—pandemic levels — so a 1.5% increase in revenues compared to 2019. however, international travel has yet to fully recover. live now to our asia business hub in singapore and suranjana tewari is there for us. lovely to see you, suranjana. interesting to see how golden week has gone because china is desperate for a boost in domestic demand. we desperate for a boost in domestic demand. we are now able to take — domestic demand. we are now able to take stock _ domestic demand. we are now able to take stock of _ domestic demand. we are now able to take stock of how - domestic demand. we are now able to take stock of how it - able to take stock of how it went. 826 million domestic trips. that is how many trips chinese people took over that eight—day vacation. equivalent to around $103 billion, more than double the taking during last year's golden week break. but last year much of china was in lockdown as the government was pursuing a zero covert policy, trying to step out every single infection as they came up. ——0 covid. there were hopes it would be a strong and rapid recovery this year and it sounds like it, but actually it is, as you mentioned, it is just 1% more than pre— pandemic levels, so not as big a recovery as the government was hoping for. chinese people are travelling less, spending less, barely beating the pre— pandemic numbers from 2019. but why does it matter? the country is in the midst of a slowdown and this is a sign that the broader economy is still far from roaring back. if tourism doesn't recover, then china may not regain its pre— pandemic role as a key driver for global growth which is a problem domestic demand doesn't pick up. it domestic demand doesn't show an object, foreign investors might also start to pull their money out of china and that is something the government definitely doesn't want — foreign investment is very important to the country. so it needed a better tourism golden week. it needs tourism to pick up in orderfor the slowdown to start to lead towards growth.- slowdown to start to lead towards urowth. ,, ., ., ., towards growth. ok, suran'ana, thank you. i towards growth. ok, suran'ana, thank you. we i towards growth. ok, suran'ana, thank you. we will i towards growth. ok, suran'ana, thank you. we will keep h towards growth. ok, suranjana, thank you. we will keep an - towards growth. ok, suranjana, thank you. we will keep an eye | thank you. we will keep an eye on any more news out of china in regards to golden week. if you think a big tech companies, often yourfirst companies, often your first thought companies, often yourfirst thought is silicon valley. however, in europe, we are home to quite a few tech companies as well. one is proton, are company best known for its e—mail service, company best known for its e—mailservice, proton company best known for its e—mail service, proton mail. it is based in geneva, switzerland and more than 100 million people have accounts with them globally. encrypted messaging is a hot topic in the uk at the moment, as the uk's online safety bill wants to get tech companies to monitor content, to check for illegal activity. our business reporter dougal shaw spoke with andy yen, founder and ceo of proton. the uk home secretary has recently said social media companies must not allow their platforms to become a safe space for child sex abusers. they should only roll out into an conscription alongside robust safety measures. proton does e—mail rather than social media, but do you think you can have effective encryption and also ensure child safety online? —— rollout and to end encryption alongside. for online? -- rollout and to end encryption alongside. for sure child abuse — encryption alongside. for sure child abuse material— encryption alongside. for sure child abuse material is - encryption alongside. for sure child abuse material is a - encryption alongside. for sure child abuse material is a big . child abuse material is a big problem we need to combat. but it is also about finding the right balance. i don't think the answer should be we need to remove encryption and having its impact doesn't make it possible for all conversations to be surveilled and essentially remove privacy entirely from the discussion. you are moving away from core fundamental human rights in order to try to fix problems that don't require this is the only solution. there are in fact other ways to tackle the problem. if i look at even proton is a company, or the big tech companies, there are a very —— there are very large teams working on abuse because none of this financially incentivised to make a safe haven for crime.— haven for crime. you have -la ed haven for crime. you have played a _ haven for crime. you have played a cat _ haven for crime. you have played a cat and _ haven for crime. you have played a cat and mouse i haven for crime. you have - played a cat and mouse game with the russian authorities with the russian authorities with your vpn software a virtual private networks that allow people to access the internet without interference from their own governments. that is quite a time—consuming exercise and you are a small company. how committed are you to do that? it company. how committed are you to do that?— to do that? it is very difficult _ to do that? it is very difficult to _ to do that? it is very difficult to fight - to do that? it is very i difficult to fight against to do that? it is very - difficult to fight against a government agency in russia, for example, that is virtually unlimited resources and a bank cheque to shut down dissent in the country. but it is a fight that in my view is critical because the only way we have any chance of winning over the hearts and minds of russian citizens in this conflict exactly by providing access to the truth. the only way to get that in russia is through a vpn. ., ., , ., ., vpn. you are pivoting now towards — vpn. you are pivoting now towards business - vpn. you are pivoting nowl towards business customers vpn. you are pivoting now - towards business customers with a business with a product you are developing. why are you doing that?— are developing. why are you doing that? consumers have a stron: doing that? consumers have a strong need — doing that? consumers have a strong need for _ doing that? consumers have a strong need for privacy - strong need for privacy especially today in the digital era where the information is so freely exchanged. but the same needs are also there for businesses. businesses also need to protect their information from cybercrime, hackers. that is why i think businesses have very much the same needs because at the end of the day businesses are made up of the day businesses are made up of consumers that work within a company. now, today is world mental health day. despite growing awareness of mental health challenges, stigma remains deeply entrenched in many workplaces, with many individuals unwilling or ill—equipped to discuss it openly. the workplace wellbeing index records that 70% of employees say they have experienced poor mental heatlth because of work. let's speak now to josh krichefski, chief executive of the advertising firm groupm. josh, you've given the day off to your employees? we have that's right. because it is world _ we have that's right. because it is world mental _ we have that's right. because it is world mental health - we have that's right. becausej it is world mental health day? yes, we — putting people first isn'tjust yes, we — putting people first isn't just about compassion, yes, we — putting people first isn'tjust about compassion, it isn'tjust about compassion, it is a business imperative. and if our people aren't healthy at work, how can they realise their potential and how can we as employers do the same? the cost of mental health to employers is increased by 25% since 2019. workplace absences out at an all—time high with stress being cited as the main cause of sickness. it is clearly an issue notjust in our industry, but in our industry we have a census organised by the advertising association called all in, which everyone in advertising as an industry is encouraged to fill in. i don't think the ad industry is unique, but at groupm we honour world mental health day is by giving everybody a break. we do collectively for everyone across the world because you want to ensure that people genuinely switch off and don't come back to hundreds of e—mails. so we are encouraging all of our employees to turn off their alerts, switch off their devices, and actually properly relax and take the time to look after themselves, or after their loved ones. everybody is listening to you and wondering how to get a job at groupm, probably. the ad industry. it is a tough industry. it is a tough industry to be in a really competitive, highly pressurised work. i can think of many places where it is very tough as well, like being within the national health service or, example, journalism and being in newsrooms, we can't switch off, unfortunately, and especially when we're covering stories like what is happening in israel and gaza the moment. it is difficult. but how can you encourage your staff to be open about mental health? because even when employers do say, you know, we want to talk about this, we are providing the support and help, many feel that they can't come forward, don't they? it that they can't come forward, don't they?— don't they? it is all about culture- _ don't they? it is all about culture. i— don't they? it is all about culture. ifeel_ don't they? it is all about culture. i feelvery - don't they? it is all about i culture. i feel very strongly as well as myjob at groupm, i am also the head of the ipa here in the uk. i am trying to rollout of the first agenda very much focused on looking out of the well being of everybody working in industry, by supporting initiatives to really kind of promote positive health and well being and there is a 3—point framework to that, quite purposefully, because you are right, it is easier said than done, i think. bill than done, i think. all right--- _ than done, i think. all right... josh, - than done, i think. all right... josh, sorry, . than done, i think. all right... josh, sorry, i have to wrap you up. we're out of time. i wish we had more. such an important story. thank you for getting up so early and thank you for your time. hello again. monday felt like another warm, summer's day — except, of course, it wasn't summer. no, its october. it's meant to be a lot colder than this. these blue, sunny skies sent temperatures soaring, particularly across england and wales — the warmest spot, east malling in kent, 26 degrees celsius. now, average for these cities at this time of the year is 15 or 16 degrees, so ten degrees above average. even the temperatures we had on monday were in excess of what we'd see in a typicaljuly day, so that's why it felt like summer. now, you can see the clear skies that we had across england and wales, but lurking out in the atlantic, we've got more rain—bearing cloud around, and that's not good news for scotland, where we still have the bulk of the flood warnings in force across the nation. it's here where, of course, we saw torrential rain and flooding over the course of the weekend, and with more rain developing over the next few hours, that's not going to be exactly welcome rain that arrives. further southwards, across england and wales, we keep those clear spells over the next few hours. one or two mist patches and a few fog patches developing, but it's a mild start to the day on tuesday. i think the biggest concern, though, will continue to be this area of rain affecting scotland. in the grand scheme of things, 50 millimetres falling from this weather front over the mountains of western scotland isn't a huge amount, but given that we've got flood warnings already in force, the ground saturated after what fell over the weekend, then this rain could cause some further extra issues. it does trickle southwards, reaching northern ireland and the far north of england, as well, late tuesday afternoon. south of that, it's very warm again. once we've lost those mist and fog patches, temperatures could hit 2a degrees in the warmest spots. now, tuesday night sees this band of rain pull away from scotland, so hopefully things will begin to improve here, to a degree. but we've got some heavier rain setting in place further southwards across england and wales, and this rain band through wednesday slowly moves across wales, the midlands, into east anglia, perhaps not reaching the far south until after dark, where it will continue to be warm, with temperatures in the low 20s. but otherwise, those temperatures coming back down closer to average levels for october. now, heading into thursday, we've got some more rain moving overnight and into friday, affecting parts of england and wales. so, rain at times probably best sums up the weather picture. that rain clears away into the weekend, with temperatures dropping back closer to the october averages. good morning, welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. our headlines today. explosion. gaza is rocked by overnight explosions — israel's prime minister says the air strikes are just the beginning, after palestinian militants kill more than 900 israelis translation: at the end - of the campaign, all of our enemies will know that it was a terrible mistake to attack israel. what is done to our enemies in the coming days will resonate with them for generations. as the death toll inside gaza reaches 700, hamas militants threaten to start killing hostages, if israel carries out more bombings without warning. around 2,000 people attend a jewish community vigil in westminster — including anxious relatives desperate for news of missing loved ones. in other news, at the labour conference, sir keir starmer will promise to "build a new britain" in his speech to party members. new figures show more people are turning to pawnbrokers as a quick way to access cash — as they grapple with the cost—of—living crisis. i'll have the details. in sport, fresh from his historic victory at the world championships gymnast jake jarman joins us live in the studio as he plots his path to the olympic podium, after that world gold at the weekend. good morning. we have more rain today across the northern half of the country. the heaviest will be across western scotland. further south, low cloud, mist and make to clear and for most it will be dry, sunny and warm. i will have all the details later.