with explosions heard on the streets of ashkelon. sderot, which is near gaza, is thought to have been infiltrated by militants. fear and confusion continues to grip the region. 0ur middle east correspondent yolande knell filed this report, and a warning that you may find some of it upsetting. rockets at dawn. the opening salvo in a surprise attack on israel by the palestinian militant group hamas. meanwhile, armed men cut through gaza's perimeter fence. this was israel's nightmare scenario. hundreds of militants at large in the south of the country. and hamas released footage after it targeted this israeli tank. militants also ran through israel's heavily fortified erez crossing. proof that this was a highly planned operation. at this overnight rave in the fields near gaza, israeli party—goers ran for their lives. gilly�*s boyfriend went to find her after she had from hamas to find her after she hid from hamas gunmen in an orchard. they were going three by three and shooting. everywhere. from two sides. and i saw many people, like... people were dying all around. in a dramatic turn, in videos verified by the bbc, israelis were also seen taken into gaza as hostages. israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, met top security officials. translation: since this morning. the state of israel has been at war. our first objective is to clear out enemy forces that infiltrated and restore the security and quiet to communities that have been attacked. the second objective, at the same time, is to exact an immense price from the enemy within the gaza strip, too. the leader of hamas, which governs gaza, watched the unfolding news from overseas. ishmail hania promised to end israel's occupation of palestinian lands. "we are on the verge of a great victory and a clear conquest on the gaza front," he said. in gaza there were celebrations after stolen israeli military vehicles were driven in. but soon the deadly pounding by israeli warplanes began. the israeli military saying it was targeting hamas sites. palestinian hospitals have been overwhelmed. after this unprecedented assault, israel is calling up military reservists. and tonight, tel aviv came under rocket fire as the fighting goes on. the question now, can it be stopped from spreading to other palestinian areas and the wider region? live now to aaron david miller, a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, focusing on us foreign policy. thank you for being with us tonight. to begin with, your reaction to what we have witnessed today? it's stunning, tragic and extraordinary. i was there 50 years ago yesterday and i heard the sirens wailing, the combined egyptian and syrian war against israel. i had that strange eerie feeling today. largely on the intelligence side. it's hard to compare 73 to what's happened here. a strategy and plan, they wanted to inflict significant defeat on israel to pave the way for a diplomatic solution which ultimately happen, there was a peace treaty. hamas�*s objectives now are unclear. to frustrate the prospect of an israeli saudi deal, and to demonstrate that hamas is capable and powerful. and can randomly and do indiscriminately kill israeli civilians. all of this is wrapped in a judgment element. inaudible. inaudible. i want to come back to something you said, the fact you were there 50 years ago, and with all of your experience in the region, and you referenced the yom kippur war there. you were nevertheless surprised by what we are seeing today. how many do you think in the international community shared that shock and surprise? community shared that shock and surrise? ., , ., , ~ surprise? the honest ones. anyone who would admit _ surprise? the honest ones. anyone who would admit i _ surprise? the honest ones. anyone who would admit i told _ surprise? the honest ones. anyone who would admit i told you - surprise? the honest ones. anyone who would admit i told you so - surprise? the honest ones. anyone who would admit i told you so or. who would admit i told you so or they had information this was coming is simply not being honest. the fact is simply not being honest. the fact is this was a failure of imagination on the part of the israelis. much as 1973 was a failure of imagination. i don't think israeli planners thought hamas would dare undertake such a bold strategy. and i think it came at a time when in fact the israelis, mr netanyahu in particular, were trying to increase the number of palestinians working in israel, largely to keep gaza quiet as he pursued his broader objective of normalisation with syria. a lot of this factored into this situation. the key question in my mind now is the conventional wisdom that israel would never launch a major ground incursion in order to eradicate hamas military leadership and essentially create a new set of circumstances in gaza that would make this tragic wash, rinse and repeat cycle almost inevitable to happen again. that's the key question. listening to the military spokesmen, they are all talking about this game changer, all talking about this game changer, all talking about this game changer, all talking about this as an extraordinarily different, even transformative moment. and i leave you with the thought that if, in fact, that occurs, the blood is up and it's really going to be horrific. israelis are going to suffer, and by and large in palestinian gaza civilians. d0 and large in palestinian gaza civilians. , ., ~ , and large in palestinian gaza civilians. ~ , ., civilians. do you think they are preparing _ civilians. do you think they are preparing for _ civilians. do you think they are preparing for that? _ civilians. do you think they are preparing for that? plans - civilians. do you think they are preparing for that? plans are l civilians. do you think they are - preparing for that? plans are under way for a ground incursion? it’s way for a ground incursion? it's almost way for a ground incursion? it�*s almost inconceivable to me that, given what's happened in the last 48 hours... 200—250, ijust heard the israeli military spokesman talking about 200 still dead, conflict going on, that is a time and a half of the number of israelis who were killed during that fateful summer in 2006, during that fateful summer in 2006, during the israel hezbollah”s confrontation. this is going to exceed that by double. given the nature of this government, given the fact this is really a moment where the israelis are determined to restore some measure of deterrence, eileen very heavily on the notion that a significant ground incursion is coming. —— eileen very heavily. so what they have to now deal with along with this operation is also a situation that there is a hostage crisis unfolding right now. have something ever happened like that before? in light of what appears to before? in light of what appears to be an intelligence failure when it comes to this attack from hamas, how difficult do you think it will be in terms of dealing with these two fronts in an operation and also a serious hostage situation? i mean, that's unprecedented. _ serious hostage situation? i mean, that's unprecedented. israeli - that's unprecedented. israeli soldiers taken hostage, gilad sharif in 2006, only freed in 2011 in a prisoner exchange when the israelis released 1079 palestinian prisoners... i don't see any military operation that is going to have any chance of rescuing these israelis. military and civilians. men, women and children as well. that would come only through negotiation. and you are right to point out, it has to serve as a certain amount of constraint on the actions of any israeli government. because the redemption of israelis, children, adults, taken hostage and prisoner, it is a national priority for the israelis. that going to be a constraining factor, and frankly, i don't have a very effective or brilliant way of analysing the dilemma that this current israeli coalition, this israeli prime minister, now faces. thejudicial minister, now faces. the judicial overhaul minister, now faces. thejudicial overhaul is now in the deep freeze. yair lapid's talking about a unity government. the rally around the flag and the government is going to occur, but as in 1973, there will be a reckoning. there is going to be a commission, and if it's done honestly, i suspect they can only reach the conclusion that this was a major intelligence as well as tactical failure. major intelligence as well as tacticalfailure. notjust on major intelligence as well as tactical failure. notjust on the part of the security chiefs. it would be wrong to place the blame solely on them as they did in 1973, but on the political leadership. the debt is going to come due. thank you so much for— debt is going to come due. thank you so much for being _ debt is going to come due. thank you so much for being with _ debt is going to come due. thank you so much for being with us _ debt is going to come due. thank you so much for being with us tonight. . so much for being with us tonight. you are welcome. we so much for being with us tonight. you are welcome.— so much for being with us tonight. you are welcome. we can go live now to the bbc's — you are welcome. we can go live now to the bbc's chief— you are welcome. we can go live now to the bbc's chief international - to the bbc�*s chief international correspondent lisa doucet, what is the latest you can tell us about the situation on the ground? after the latest you can tell us about the situation on the ground?— situation on the ground? after this extraordinary _ situation on the ground? after this extraordinary assault _ situation on the ground? after this extraordinary assault this - situation on the ground? after this extraordinary assault this morning | extraordinary assault this morning by hamas, which as we have been hearing has taken the israelis by surprise, this is really an unprecedented moment, and of course a scenario where there has been decades of tension, attacks, all—out war. this is a very, very different kind of warfor all of war. this is a very, very different kind of war for all of the regions we have just been kind of war for all of the regions we havejust been hearing. the staggering number of israeli hostages, boat israeli military officers and soldiers as well as civilians. —— all of the reasons we have just been hearing. civilians. —— all of the reasons we havejust been hearing. a civilians. —— all of the reasons we have just been hearing. a far right israeli government. there will certainly be pressure on benjamin netanyahu to do what he and other israeli leaders have avoided for decades, and that is a major ground offensive into gaza. if not a reoccupation of the strip israel pulled its troops out of in 2005. there are no good options for benjamin netanyahu. but each one of them is fraught with risk. and hamas is in no mood to hold its fire as well. ., .,, ., , is in no mood to hold its fire as well. ., ., , ., ., well. no good options, to borrow our well. no good options, to borrow your parlance _ well. no good options, to borrow your parlance there, _ well. no good options, to borrow your parlance there, and - well. no good options, to borrow your parlance there, and it - well. no good options, to borrow| your parlance there, and it comes well. no good options, to borrow i your parlance there, and it comes at a time when the death toll on both sides is already high. what are your concerns for the human cost here? there is a collective ringing label of hands, the death toll is high on the palestinian side. —— a collective wwringing of hands. it will only continue to rise. there is no sense that this is going to stop any time soon, this is quite the contrary. both sides are vowing to make their enemy pay. we don't know how many rockets, how many weapons, how many rockets, how many weapons, how much ammunition hamas and islamichhad still have at the ready. in the gaza strip. we don't know what tactics, what moves israel will make next, but there will be pressure for israel to do something big soon. but there's a danger in this mix, because if it goes in too hard and fast, they could be a risk it could endanger the lives of the hostages, and that would be another crisis of huge proportions for israel. it would want to bring those hostages home as soon as possible. but in israel, everyone will remember that the last major hostage, gilad shalit, one israeli soldier was held for five years. there were intensive negotiations. he was eventually freed for 1000 palestinians. no doubt hamas is already thinking about how many of its own prisoners injails in israel its own prisoners injails in israel it will be able to free, and that of course we'll just it will be able to free, and that of course we'lljust bring up another problem, another problem of its making. —— willjust. figs problem, another problem of its making. -- willjust.— problem, another problem of its making. -- willjust. making. -- will 'ust. as you say, the potential— making. -- willjust. as you say, the potential for— making. -- willjust. as you say, the potential for a _ making. -- willjust. as you say, the potential for a crisis - making. -- willjust. as you say, the potential for a crisis within . making. -- willjust. as you say, the potential for a crisis within a | the potential for a crisis within a crisis. countries around the world watching this with grave concern. just walk us through some of the international reaction.— international reaction. well, of course, international reaction. well, of course. as _ international reaction. well, of course, as expected, - international reaction. well, of| course, as expected, president international reaction. well, of - course, as expected, president biden came out firmly on the side of israel, as it always does in these crises, saying, we will stand with israel, condemning the attacks by hamas. the phones must be burning behind the scenes. what has been noticeable is some of the major arab states, saudi arabia, united arab emirates, in the past they would have been very critical of israel. they would have been much more tilting towards the palestinians. evenif tilting towards the palestinians. even if they would have been calling for restraint. but we have to place this in the context, it comes at a time where the united states and israel felt they were making progress on what is a big political prize, that prime minister netanyahu was after, and that is the recognition by saudi arabia of the jewish state. many believe this is one of the factors behind the timing of this hamas attack, to send a very strong message that they are still a force to be reckoned with, and that there are still major issues to resolve before saudi arabia, major sunni power, custodian of the two holiest muslim shrines, mecca and medina, and take that step to recognise the jewish state. medina, and take that step to recognise thejewish state. and medina, and take that step to recognise the jewish state. and on that oint, recognise the jewish state. and on that point. are _ recognise the jewish state. and on that point, are there _ recognise the jewish state. and on that point, are there concerns - recognise the jewish state. and on | that point, are there concerns about contagion in the region? yes. that point, are there concerns about contagion in the region?— contagion in the region? yes, and this is another— contagion in the region? yes, and this is another dangerous - contagion in the region? yes, and this is another dangerous aspect i contagion in the region? yes, and| this is another dangerous aspect of this is another dangerous aspect of this confrontation. in the past, when there has been all—out war, it has spread to the occupied west bank, where there were perhaps attacks or explosions, tests, tensions. but this time there is a worry that the unrest in the gaza, the occupied west bank, there has been rising confrontation with right—wing jewish settlers, clashes in the area, rising disillusionment with the palestinian authority as well. a rival to hamas. and there are embers there, and any match will light a huge fire in that region as well. concern too about the lebanese border, but it's not clear whether hezbollah�*, also border, but it�*s not clear whether hezbollah�*, also an ally or hamas, would want to open up another front. hide this, of course, we have to remember iran, a big backer of hamas, hezbollah�*s, and islamic jihad... to use your phrase, there are crises within crises, layers within layers. so behind this urgent question of what happens next, another question about, when the day comes, and it will come, when the fighting stops, what is the long—term solution to these crises which continue to rock the region? a never ending cycle of ever—growing suffering. ilil" never ending cycle of ever-growing sufferinu. . ., ., ., suffering. our chief international correspondent, _ suffering. our chief international correspondent, thank _ suffering. our chief international correspondent, thank you - suffering. our chief international correspondent, thank you for - suffering. our chief international. correspondent, thank you for your analysis as ever. with me is elise labott, contributing editor for politico magazine and founder of zivvy media. elise, thank you for being with us. you have covered this region. i want to ask you about the intelligence. i imagine questions will be being asked tonight about what appears to be an intelligence failure? it what appears to be an intelligence failure? , ., , ., failure? it 'ust goes to show you, what's failure? itjust goes to show you, what's going _ failure? itjust goes to show you, what's going on _ failure? itjust goes to show you, what's going on in _ failure? itjust goes to show you, what's going on in gaza - failure? itjust goes to show you, what's going on in gaza is - failure? itjust goes to show you, what's going on in gaza is really. failure? itjust goes to show you, | what's going on in gaza is really a what�*s going on in gaza is really a mystery to the israelis, but also to the egyptians, who are on the border. still there is tension between israel and egypt, israel and jordan, even though they have peace with these countries. but the intelligence, where was the united states intelligence? the fact 60—100 terrorists were able to infiltrate, cross borders, notjust come from rockets... this is really a massive intelligence failure. i think there�*s going to be a lot of account, not only were the border is not properly secured, i think it just goes to show you that israel has been really focused on normalisation with arab countries, and i think maybe it did take its eye off the ball in terms of they felt they had the palestinian situation in the box. itjust goes to show, you can have peace with arab neighbours but it doesn�*t solve the palestinian problem. i arab neighbours but it doesn't solve the palestinian problem.— the palestinian problem. i want to ask ou the palestinian problem. i want to ask you about— the palestinian problem. i want to ask you about the _ the palestinian problem. i want to ask you about the timing, - the palestinian problem. i want to ask you about the timing, we - the palestinian problem. i want to| ask you about the timing, we know politically it has been a very difficult year for prime minister netanyahu. if we take a look at the scenes, the infiltration we saw, including people coming in, parachuting in...— including people coming in, parachuting in... including people coming in, ”arachutin in... �* . . , . parachuting in... air, land and sea. there is this _ parachuting in... air, land and sea. there is this israeli _ parachuting in... air, land and sea. there is this israeli iron _ parachuting in... air, land and sea. there is this israeli iron dome. - there is this israeli iron dome. what do you think about the timing? i think the timing was a couple of things. you had the anniversary everyone�*s been talking about, the 50th anniversary of the yom kippur war, which is very significant. and it also comes as israel is trying to normalise with its arab neighbours, particularly the deal with saudi arabia, and hamas is saying, listen, you want to make a deal with the saudis? you can�*t deal with the palestinian government, you need to deal with us, we are still here and we can still make trouble. not necessarily so happy with the money they are getting from arab neighbours. this was kind of a prestige attack. they can also, as others have said, it could be something as simple as they want 1000 of their soldiers back. all these things in hamas�* calculation saying this has been planned for a long time, right? this is not something theyjust picked out of their pocket. they�*ve been planning this. relatively quiet, there have been a lot of lone wolf attacks by palestinians over the past few years, but this is a very long term, carefully planned the attack. maybe they have been keeping their powder dry for something of this big magnitude. but it does come when they take the israelis have their eye off the ball because of the arab normalisation and, as you said, because of this domestic internal political crisis. they probably thought netanyahu was not the stern security prime minister that he always was. but now the israelis are going to be saying to themselves, if benjamin netanyahu can�*t protect us, who can? 50 benjamin netanyahu can't protect us, who can? ., , ., ., who can? so where does that leave the israeli government? _ who can? so where does that leave the israeli government? we - who can? so where does that leave the israeli government? we saw i who can? so where does that leave i the israeli government? we saw today prime minister benjamin netanyahu take up the invitation from the opposition to form a unity government. do you envisage that grievances have been pushed to one side now? particularly at a time for example when we saw the idf, some reservists on strike. you example when we saw the idf, some reservists on strike.— reservists on strike. you see them cominu reservists on strike. you see them coming op — reservists on strike. you see them coming op today — reservists on strike. you see them coming up today and _ reservists on strike. you see them coming up today and saying, - reservists on strike. you see them coming up today and saying, we i reservists on strike. you see them l coming up today and saying, we are unified, that israeli defensive nature, this is the israeli 9/11, right. if you look at the population disparities between them... 100 israelis are dead. we are kind of in 9/11 territory, and you have heard israelis are saying this is our 9/11. and if you see the changes in the us, the war on terror, the agencies created, the campaigns and the walls that were started in the name of the 9/11 attacks, i think you are going to say something like that in israel. —— the wars that were started. there was a bit is getting ready to fight, grievances being put aside. i think netanyahu should be clear, once this calm down, he is going to have to answer those political questions again, but right now, everybody is going to be behind the israeli defence forces. to draw on that point you just made about 9/11, of course we can expect furtive calls are being made behind the scenes from the us administration right now, with egypt, with saudi arabia stop what kind of discussions do you think they will be having?— kind of discussions do you think they will be having? what you were talkin: they will be having? what you were talking about _ they will be having? what you were talking about just _ they will be having? what you were talking aboutjust now _ they will be having? what you were talking aboutjust now about - talking aboutjust now about contagion in the region, right? the united states is going to give israel a very long berth to make sure they take care of the problem. when they say they have the right to defend themselves, right now they are going to let israel determine what that means, defend itself. there will be lip service to avoiding civilian casualties but i think they�*re going to give israel a very long leash. but what they�*re really going to want to do is to avoid contagion in the region. you talk about the palestinian, the hamas calling on hezbollah�* and other terrorists, their brothers, to take up arms against israel. they want to make sure there is not something on the northern border with hezbollah�* and that it doesn�*t break out to the west bank. if you think back to 2006, the war, hezbollah�*s war, and lebanon, and then you have the syrian border... that�*s what they are worried about right now, because ukraine is threatening to be a regional war in europe. so right now, the administration, the first thing is to make sure israel has the defensive capabilities it needs. going to let israel play this out for a little while before they even think about some calls for a ceasefire or stopping the violence. as was said, it�*s going to get worse before it gets worse... the yom kippur war wasjust a few before it gets worse... the yom kippur war was just a few weeks, i think this is going to be longer. the us secretary of state antony blinken today speaking to mahmoud abbas. how effective is that strategy when ultimately because this is coming from hamas, which the us recognises a terrorist organisation.— us recognises a terrorist oruanisation. �*, ., ' . ., organisation. it's not effective at all. he organisation. it's not effective at all- he can _ organisation. it's not effective at all. he can control— organisation. it's not effective at all. he can control the _ organisation. it's not effective at all. he can control the west - organisation. it's not effective at| all. he can control the west bank and they are going to ask him to make sure that his statements are not, you know, inciting violence. but he is in a difficult position now, because hamasjust upstaged him. is it effective? i�*m not really sure. he had to do it. but mahmoud abbas is not running the show, it was not hamas, and maybe diplomacy with the egyptians will go to hamas right now. with the egyptians will go to hamas riaht now. , ., ., ., i. right now. great to have you with us. right now. great to have you with us- thank — right now. great to have you with us. thank you. _ right now. great to have you with us. thank you. you _ right now. great to have you with us. thank you. you are _ right now. great to have you with us. thank you. you are watching | right now. great to have you with - us. thank you. you are watching bbc news. our coverage on the bbc continues, stay with us if you can. you can always go to our website for more. goodbye for now. hello. rarely do we see a day of weather contrasts quite stark as those contrasts quite as stark as those we experienced during saturday. across many parts of scotland we had huge amounts of rain, flooding and disruption. we had this met office amber warning in force. this expiring through the first part of sunday morning but this new warning stretching from aberdeenshire up towards inverness, this warning is in force until 2pm on sunday with further flooding and disruption likely. this is the rain we had on saturday. it was relentless. well over 100 millimetres of rain in places and some spots in the north of scotland only got to 7—8 degrees. compare that with 25 in south—east england, those huge contrasts, that, in fact, was the warmest 0ctober day we have seen in five years. into sunday, this frontal system still plaguing parts of scotland with some outbreaks of rain. the focus for the heaviest rain does shift a little further northwards and eastwards. still though some rain through the central belt, could cause further problems, southern scotland looking drier with a little bit of sunshine. patchy cloud and sunny spells for northern ireland. quite murky for some western coasts of england and wales and a bit more cloud for eastern coasts too, but we should, broadly speaking, see some spells of sunshine on what will be another very warm day for the time of year — 25, 26 degrees, not as cold across the north of scotland. heading through sunday night, we will still see some bits and pieces of rain across scotland, maybe fringing into northern ireland, but generally it will turn a bit drier, quite windy in the far north, very mild as we start monday morning with some areas of low cloud, mist and fog, particularly for western coasts and some of that could linger as we go through the day. scotland certainly drier than it has been, although this little line of rain could just plague the south—west of scotland from time to time. temperatures 13 in stornoway, still 24 in london. moving deeper into the week, we will see someting of a change, that warmth is set to be swept away. a frontal system pushing its way south and east through the middle of the week, heavy rain with that, and behind it something cooler, something a bit more like we would expect at this time of year. so a mainly dry, warm start to the week but things will change from midweek onwards. we are seeing an unprecedented escalation of violence between israel and hamas — after a surprise attack in southern israel by palestinian militants. in the past hour, the israeli army has named a commander killed by hamas as coloneljonathan steinberg near kerem shalom. that�*s gaza�*s only commercial border crossing with israel, with a check—point that is fully controlled by the israeli army. earlier, prime minister benjamin netanyahu declared israel is quote "at war"., he said that dozens of israeli soldiers and civilians have been captured after a surprise and unprecedented attack by palestinian militants on israel territory. israel�*s government says hamas has launched more than 2000 rockets into the country killing more than 250 people and wounding over 1100 others. it is still unclear why hamas attacked at this time. officials in the gaza strip say over 230 people have been killed and over 1700 were injured in retaliatory strikes. the early morning assault began with a barrage of rocket fire from gaza just after dawn — with explosions heard on the streets of ashkelon. sderot is one of the towns thought to have been infiltrated by militants. fear and confusion continues to grip the region. so, this map here gives you some idea of the extent of hamas�*s infiltration across the border from gaza into southern israel. these are 17 locations where we have verified the presence of palestinian militants in this attack. from up in space, this is what that area of southern israel looked like today.

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