warm in scotland, 9 degrees in aberdeen, compared with 2a or 25 across parts of south—east england. and then as we head through saturday night, the rain band will slowly shift its way northwards, so, for there of central parts of scotland it will turn just a little bit drier. on sunday the heaviest rain will be across the north of scotland into orkney, elsewhere, some spells of sunshine, maybe not quite as warm on sunday but still pretty remarkable for october, 2a degrees in the south—east, little bit less cool in northern parts of scotland. extra week starts off warm in the south, only slowly will it start to feel more like we would expect in october. astonishing. ben rich, thank you. that's it. more analysis is on newsnight with faisal islam, over on bbc two. but the news continues here on bbc one, with cheering a 20% swing by—election and suddenly those 44 snp westminster seats look a bit shaky. does this remove a key roadblock for the opposition in place for nearly nine years or will caution win the war for labour? is it now time after this for "keir the bold"? - what you've seen is "keir the strategist" who knew that we had to take our party from the worst general election result since 1935 to a general election victory that required us to change the party at pace and ruthlessly. and what does it say about any path for independence? we'll hearfrom labour's party chairfrom liverpool as she prepares for conference. and from an mp who was until recently in the snp. also tonight, he has notjust abandoned his funding forthe campaign groupjust stop oil, but now thinks the time for protest is done. we hear from the eco entrepeneur who's backing labour, dale vince. they may carry on and do it, i don't know. what i'm saying is, i think that will assist the conservatives in their desperate attempt to get re—elected. it will be part of the culture war. i'm not going to fund that any more. and our political panel will chew over a significant political week — and look ahead to next week's labour and snp conferences. it's advisable not to read too much into a single poll, or a single by—election, but the result in rutherglen and hamilton west could be one of those moments that change the political weather. why? because since 2014 the snp have crushed labour in scottish seats that were once reliable foundations for any chance of a majority. a fundamental blockage of labour's most common route to downing street. but more than that, it could now be rather difficult for the conservatives to mount campaigns suggesting a labour prime minister would be in some way reliant on a nationalist scottish first minister — a staple of their recent election campaigns. the conservatives themselves lost their deposit, which they blame on a pro union squeeze. but this result is important not just for scotland, but for the contours of the entire general election map. we'll hear from the labour chair and a prominent pro independence mp in a moment. but first, here is nick from south lanarkshire. a keir born in lanarkshire — the father of labour. a keir reborn in lanarkshire — victory in a former heartland. when i left here a week ago with the team, i said, "you've got to win it." you blew the doors off! delighted labour members now thinking what had been unthinkable. might this keir be on the verge of achieving in half a decade what it took this trio a decade and a half to achieve — from abject failure to number ten? labour stormed back in rutherglen and hamilton west, turning a 5,000 snp majority into a 9,000 labour one. and that produced a swing ofjust over 20% from the snp to labour. maybe time to up the pace? so, sir keir starmer, we've seen until now "keir the cautious," is it now time after this for "keir the bold"? what you've seen is "keir the strategist" who knew that we had to take our party from the worst general election result since 1935 to a general election victory that required us to change the party at pace and ruthlessly required us to expose the snp and the tories as not fit to govern and then to lay out our positive case. but it is looking like a majority labour uk government. is it time for you to rip the doors off and say things like "i believe in hs2, let's build it"? look, i accept a result like this, humbly. yesterday people put their faith in a changed labour party here in this constituency of rutherglen. i thank them for that. we will repay that with the careful work that we need to do to go into that general election. a constituency in need of hope, sending a signal to holyrood's governing party, and a first minister listening... a disappointing night, a tough night for the snp. very difficult, of course. but, look, the snp has to reflect. we've got to regroup. we've got to reorganise. we've had tough adversity. tough election results in the past. we've bounced back stronger. i'm very, very keen to make sure that we are fighting for the next electoral test. until the early hours of this morning, this was the only part of scotland in the hands of scottish labour in westminster terms — edinburgh south. the party has now doubled its number of mps and it has high hopes of doing far better than that in the general election, potentially easing the path of keir starmer in to number ten. tell me about the scale of the win. well, it's a phenomenal win for labour cos it's notjust that they've won at all. i think that was quite widely expected, including within the snp. but it's the scale of the win. so, we've seen just over a 20% swing to labour. they would have needed 5—6% to win the seat. but emily gray warns, remember, this is a by—election... we shouldn't read too much into it when it comes to the next general election, because actually by—elections are quite unusual events. so, turnout is much lower than it would be in a general election. people often vote in protest. we've also seen a lot of tactical voting. so conservative and lib dem voters who voted that way in 2019, then giving their vote to labour this time around to kick the snp out locally. so all of those factors might well not be replicated at a general election. it's a kind of perfect storm. on the one hand, their policies are not fit for purpose in the new situation. on the other hand, if you like, the independence referendum approach has hit a very big brick wall. for the snp, a prominent historian believes it is losing its hold, despite strong support for independence, which he supported. i harp on about the future as not my period as an historian, but the other hand, we've got to remember, i think, that the independence vote in terms of opinion polls is still around about the mid 405. that hasn't completely collapsed. i think what has been injured, perhaps mortally even, and we don't know about the future of course in that sense, mortally, is the vehicle for independence, which is the snp. the government has developed almost a record of incompetence, or at least perceived incompetence over the last few years. a wind of change in the air. labor hopes its time has come again. the snp knows it has a fight. nick watt, there. so, what are the numbers? what does this swing mean if repeated? and what does it tell us about the general election battle over the next year or so? here isjoe at the wall. parties have no end of voter data these days. but it's still swing which displays changes most clearly. and it was popularised by this man... labour needed that swing, 2% or more, to win the election. david butler, the late, great sultan of swing. here analysing an increased macmillan majority in 1959. fast forward more than half a century and this is the rutherglen and hamilton west result. first, look at lines two and three. a big drop in snp support — almost i7%. and the tories down ii%. suggesting that each party's supporters are not happy with their governments' records in holyrood and westminster. so let's do the maths and calculate the swing. first, we need to take labour's percentage gain in support. and add the snp�*s fall in support. that makes 40.7. divide that by two and we get the swing: 20.1; percentage points. it is huge. and if we fire up the newsnight swingometer, the swing from snp to labour needed to be about 5% for keir starmer�*s party to win this seat. recent polls suggested they'd be looking at a number nearer to ii. and as we know from our arithmetic, labour actually achieved something far far bigger. if that was replicated in a general election, anas sarwar�*s party would get around a0 seats in scotland. but one word of warning — by—elections are merely snapshots. and turnout yesterday was a very low 37%. it's also worth looking at the shift in support in a different way. here's the 2019 result from rutherglen and hamilton west. butjust watch how that has now changed: the labour red gets larger. the tory blue and snp yellow: significantly smaller. if we look at them side by side, there will have been some tactical voting: labour squeezing the tory pro—uk vote. clearly, lots of voters stayed at home. but there also must have been some snp to labour switchers. the person with most to fear from all this is humza yousaf, the snp leader, just six months into thejob. some believe kate forbes — here on the right — who came second in the leadership race, is still a solid prospect for first minister. and ash regan — on the left, who came third — remains a pretty vocal sceptic of the sturgeonite wing of the snp, of which mr yousaf is a loyal member. he also has the added distraction of this... now, here's the manifesto — shake things up. alex salmond's alba party which has two mp defectors but which has posed little electoral threat. plus, battles with angus macneil, the veteran mp recently expelled from the snp. and fergus ewing — a scottish government minister for 14 years — last week suspended for criticising the leadership. of course, there are rows, rivalries and splits in every political party. but the snp has in recent history been united and disciplined. so have sagging poll numbers changed that internal grip? so have sagging poll numbers just look at recent trends. nicola sturgeon�*s resignation in the spring seems to have been a significant moment — hitting her own party. and boosting labour. humza yousaf may be able to turn it around. but if not, scottish labour could ease keir starmer�*s path to downing street. joining us from liverpool ahead of the conference is labour party chair and shadow secretary of state for women and equalities annaliese dodds. thanks forjoining us. isn't the result in rejection of two problem stone governments in westminster and holyrood are not necessarily an endorsement of the party? —— problem stone. it endorsement of the party? -- problem stone. , ., , , , endorsement of the party? -- problem stone. ,., , , _ stone. it is a message being sent by the --eole stone. it is a message being sent by the peeple of— stone. it is a message being sent by the people of rutherglen _ stone. it is a message being sent by the people of rutherglen and - the people of rutherglen and hamilton west, first of all, yes, to both of those failing governments, same to the snp and the conservatives that they have had enough of chaos and division, but also saying very clearly, that they want change, they want a government that will deliver change in holyrood and in westminster as well and that message was coming across time and time again during the campaign. because we focused on the issues that people raised with us and they wanted to see action for working people, especially in the middle of a cost of living crisis they are not getting that action either from the snp or the conservatives and they can see that labour would be delivering that change. you can see that labour would be delivering that change. you heard in the re ort, delivering that change. you heard in the report. if— delivering that change. you heard in the report, if swing _ delivering that change. you heard in the report, if swing is _ delivering that change. you heard in the report, if swing is repeated - the report, if swing is repeated enough, it could get you back to when you were a decade or so ago, a0 seats or more, are you measuring the curtains for downing street in liverpool?— liverpool? no, there is no complacency _ liverpool? no, there is no complacency here - liverpool? no, there is no complacency here at - liverpool? no, there is no complacency here at all i liverpool? no, there is no | complacency here at all and liverpool? no, there is no - complacency here at all and we liverpool? no, there is no _ complacency here at all and we know that obviously we have got to work hard for every single vote and we need to show that we can provide that change but actually under keir starmer, he has shown how he can turn the labour party around and how he can change our party and he is ready to change our country to really focus on the issues which are so critical for people a mission led government, and working hand—in—hand with scottish labour and i think the result demonstrates that is what people are crying out for, crying out for a change that only labour can deliver. out for a change that only labour can deliver-— out for a change that only labour can deliver. every time the prime minister makes _ can deliver. every time the prime minister makes a _ can deliver. every time the prime minister makes a radical - can deliver. every time the prime minister makes a radical change | can deliver. every time the primel minister makes a radical change in policy which seems to be happening a lot recently, you have almost set your watch by the fact a labour spokesperson will pop up and say, we don't like this, we would not have done this but there's not much we can do, we have seen this on repeated policies from investment spending to the child benefit cap to hsz, it is spending to the child benefit cap to hs2, it is not very bold, is it? quite opposite, in fact, from rishi sunak we have seen hollow promises of change when we have had 13 years under the conservatives with five different prime ministers, and that change simply is not delivered and in fact things are getting worse for so many people, people feeling that they have less money in their pockets and that public services are crumbling and the streets are less safe and there are a number nhs waiting times. safe and there are a number nhs waiting times-_ waiting times. yes, but are you actually offering _ waiting times. yes, but are you actually offering anything - waiting times. yes, but are you i actually offering anything specific? a big policy change on hs2 which you have endorsed repeatedly, and now you cannot do much about it, that is your response? in you cannot do much about it, that is your resoonse?_ your response? in that case, obviously. — your response? in that case, obviously, after _ your response? in that case, obviously, after many - your response? in that case, obviously, after many yearsl your response? in that case, | obviously, after many years of indecision and delay, the government has blown a massive hole in that hs2 programme and we learned that ministers are even right now selling off some of the land that is critical for that project, but if you focus on what keir starmer has set up, the emissions for government, it is very clear that labour would be doing things very differently. we are determined to make sure that the nhs is fit for the future we have announced how we would be revolutionising people puzzling access to nhs dentistry which is a huge problem in the country right now —— people's access. we would be taking choices and we feel that if people live here they should pay tax and we would use they should pay tax and we would use the money by getting rid of the land and tax loophole and by putting that into services, there is a big difference on the economy and policing and so many areas where our mission led government, everywhere to be elected, would actually be facing up to those big challenges for our country, and making the best use of the opportunities they provide, ratherthan use of the opportunities they provide, rather than our country languishing in these areas which are so critical. ., ., ., , joining me now is the independent mp for the western isles, angus macneil. he was recently expelled from the snp in august after a row with the party's chief whip, and is an ally of alex salmond. what went wrong for your former party? i what went wrong for your former -a ? ~ , ., what went wrong for your former -a ? ~' what went wrong for your former party? i think when you look at the hamilton by-election _ party? i think when you look at the hamilton by-election every - party? i think when you look at the hamilton by-election every time i party? i think when you look at the | hamilton by-election every time we hamilton by—election every time we go to the polls in recent years there they seem to change party, 2015 it went to the snp, 2017 labour and i only lasted four years ago and that now they won it back again and perhaps next time it will go to an independent supporting party again and let's hope the snp are that independence supporting party and get back to it because that's why a lot of voters didn't turn out and the snp offering anything at the moment. sending this mystery message isn't the most inspiring thing for voters in hamilton to turn out for on an october day, so a lot went wrong with the snp, but you have to remember that labour's vote is down a% the number of votes they got in hamilton, so there is a lot of hype about labourjust now but there is also a good crisis for the snp and they shouldn't waste this, it is time to re—evaluate what is going on and to see the mess coming out of holyrood in particular there is a letter of any optic policies in my area, protected marine areas and also a coalition with the greens who were less popular than the tories in scotland. there are lessons there and hopefully they will be learned at people can be given something tangible. at people can be given something tanuible. �* ., ,. , ., at people can be given something tanuible. ., ,. , ., ., tangible. adolescents go to the top to leadership? _ tangible. adolescents go to the top to leadership? absolutely. -- i tangible. adolescents go to the top to leadership? absolutely. -- the l to leadership? absolutely. -- the lessons go _ to leadership? absolutely. -- the lessons go to _ to leadership? absolutely. -- the lessons go to the _ to leadership? absolutely. -- the lessons go to the top. _ to leadership? absolutely. -- the lessons go to the top. since i to leadership? absolutely. -- the lessons go to the top. since 2016 | lessons go to the top. since 2016 there has been no progress on independence and that support outstrips the snp support in scotland so there is room for the snp to go if they say the right things to the people and if there is a campaign on independence, we have to grasp their own to be a referendum, if you use a general election, that is a bolt on hs2 argument or a ulez argument in london, the alternative is to hold an early holyrood eruption, we make independence the issue, stop the world and let them look at scotland and if we vote on the ballot box independence every democrat will respect that. if we don't we don't get independence, that is an obvious thing to say. is a get independence, that is an obvious thing to say-— thing to say. is a listen from today not that some _ thing to say. is a listen from today not that some people _ thing to say. is a listen from today not that some people who - thing to say. is a listen from today not that some people who are i thing to say. is a listen from today not that some people who are pro| not that some people who are pro independence are willing to vote for the labour party, increasing numbers, so your dream may be disappearing into the rear—view mirror even though you had a majority in the scottish parliament for it. ., ., ., ~ , ., for it. you have to keep an mind, oen it for it. you have to keep an mind, open it is— for it. you have to keep an mind, open it is possible _ for it. you have to keep an mind, open it is possible but _ for it. you have to keep an mind, open it is possible but i - for it. you have to keep an mind, open it is possible but i would i for it. you have to keep an mind, | open it is possible but i would say a 37% turn out most of them stayed at home, the snp vote in numbers was about a third of what they lost a seat on in 2017. the snp really have an opportunity to do a lot at the moment and they are not doing it. this opportunity to give to the people to speak on independence is critical, stop trying to... the son of the famous woman who won in hamilton in 1967 dominic he didn't query my assumption that the independent stream for you right now is heading into the rear—view mirror, it is disappearing. it is mirror, it is disappearing. it is not. mirror, it is disappearing. it is not- support _ mirror, it is disappearing. it is not. support for _ mirror, it is disappearing. it 3 not. support for independence is always hovering around a8—32% and a campaign will put the numbers and thatis campaign will put the numbers and that is why westminster is looking referendum. but if there is nothing tangible happening on independence people get distracted and move on to other things and they have probably moved other things and not coming out to vote and that is what you see 37%. but if there is a pull on independence in the nearfuture i am very confident independence would win. the only way that can happen is to be engineered at holyrood because a supreme court of subtly rude holding a referendum and westminster will give the section 30 order, —— won't. so you have to engineer election were independent. we must leave it there. _ election were independent. we must leave it there. thank _ election were independent. we must leave it there. thank you _ election were independent. we must leave it there. thank you for - leave it there. thank you for joining us. when five just stop oil activists also stopped les miserables being performed on wednesday night, the crowd just booed them. maybe a straw in the wind, but add that sentiment to rishi sunak�*s edging back from some net—zero policies and, somehow, stopping global warming has turned into a culture war issue. that's why green energy industrialist dale vince announced today he is pulling his funding of green protest groups, of whichjso is the most high—profile. he wants to focus instead on giving young voters the means to vote, and believes that further direct action is now playing into the conservatives' hands. i spoke to him earlier and asked him why he decided to pull the plug on his support forjust stop oil. it's very clear that more protests won't cause the government to change direction. i think the last couple of weeks we've seen them double and treble down on this issue. they've announced basically an anti—green agenda or a war on green wokery, hundreds of new licenses rather than stopping the handful thatjust stop oil have been protesting against. and really, it's a recognition that more protests can't divert this government from the crazy course that they've chosen, which is an anti—green agenda. so do you regret now having funded, i think, something like over £300,000, interrupting people, going to sports events, to the theatre even in the past week? i don't regret it. i think it was the right thing to do at the right time. protest has a role in our country. it was a peaceful protest. it did cause disruption. as i said back then, many times, the more disruption you cause when you have a protest, the more effective that protest is. but now it's crystal clear that more protests can't change the course of this government. and we do have an election coming soon. it makes sense to adapt and say, "ok, let's fight this issue at the ballot box." but, i mean, i think it's worthjust reflecting, you know, we've had hundreds of people arrested, dozens of people have spent time in prison. there are some currently in jail. you know, and i kind of put it to you that you did encourage these protesters to act at the edge of legality. that has backfired. and you've kind ofjustified anybody with a different political persuasion to do similar things. you can't complain if someone who wants to stop the boats, for example, protests like this in a disruptive fashion. listen, i'm not sure why you're saying this to me. we know what the recent history is. i did fund just stop oil. i believed in the cause. i still believe in the cause, just not the method now, the tactic, i think, that's been turned against us as environmentalists, that it's been weaponised by the conservative party. we have an election coming. i want to now put my energy into something else, a different way to stop oil. the ultimate way to stop oil is to stop this crazy conservative government. is this happening now because labour have pressurised you because they see some of this connection withjust stop oil has been quite toxic for them ahead of an election. isn't that the case? no. i sound like i'm being cross—examined now by a barrister or something. it's a reasonable question. nobody pressurises me to do anything in my life. they may try, but it doesn't work. this is completely my own decision, because if you look at it, it's a very simple, logical decision. but i put it to you that actually from the labour leadership now, we're getting a little bit of sort of rowing back on some of this agenda. you take the decision on rosebank last week. it's pretty clear when you hear from the oil companies involved that had labour put up any type of fight or any indication that they might look at these decisions, they wouldn't have made the investment. so literally keir starmer could have stopped the oil and he hasn't. he's going to let as many things go through before the election as might be needed. you know, i'm not sure that's true. i don't accept that, for one thing, the investment has been made. actually, it hasn't been. maybe a decision has been made to go ahead. but there's an awful lot of work that hasn't been done, investment that hasn't been made. i understand what keir starmer is doing when he says he won't break contracts that have been signed by the government. i mean, this week we've seen rishi sunak break contracts with the people that were working on hs2. it's going to cost us hundreds of millions of pounds. it erodes confidence in the government of our country for investors from here and from overseas. it's a bad look. it's a bad thing to do. so i understand it from that perspective. and on their big green investment plan, that was 28 billion a year, you know, they've sort of rowed back a bit on that. they weren't exactly firm out of the blocks in terms of opposing all of the the new green agenda of the government. they're playing it quite cautiously. yeah. they are playing it cautiously. i can see that too. obviously there's a fairly right—wing media bias in our country. if you look at the ownership of the print titles, nine out of 11 are right—wing titles and labour are being careful about what they commit to ahead of the election, which also makes sense, because they don't know the state of the finances now like the government knows them, and they don't know what it's going to be like in maybe 12 months' time when there's an election. so it makes sense to be cautious. dale vince, thanks very much forjoining us. yeah, my pleasure. thank you. what a week it has been in politics, from abandoned railways, to by—elections, with two major conferences to come. let's get some views from two watchers of uk politics, and scottish politics especially — ayesha hazarika of times radio and the national�*s abbi garton—crosbie joining us from glasgow. temp ayesha, is this the end of the snp mega victory set in stone we have seen from the referendum era? i have seen from the referendum era? i think it could be the beginning, scottish politics has been in a holding pattern since that referendum of snp dominance and certainly my formerjob as a labour party adviser, you watch the collapse of the labour party in 2015 at the party has really struggled to make many consistent breakthroughs. but what is different about this by—election is at first about it was the first really well—organised campaign in the scottish labour party. he had activists flocking from across the country and so many said to me it is the first time since before 2015 they were getting a positive reaction on the doorstep. normally labour activists could almost get chased down the road in scotland. , . , , almost get chased down the road in scotland. , ., , , ::' almost get chased down the road in | scotland-— the scotland. this happened in 2015. the other thin . scotland. this happened in 2015. the other thing that _ scotland. this happened in 2015. the other thing that was _ scotland. this happened in 2015. the other thing that was interesting i scotland. this happened in 2015. the other thing that was interesting is i other thing that was interesting is the fact there were so many english senior labour cabinet, shadow cabinet ministers coming up regularly, keir starmer, angela rayner, other people, and when i was working for the party it felt it was quite a disconnect between the labour in scotland and what was happening in westminster, so i think all of this is signalling positive change and there is still a long way to go, but this when, the swing makes labour competitive across possibly 20 seats across the central belt and we know that is a big shift in the narrative in terms of a revival in scotland and of course it helps clear stomach in terms of his narrative of the march to downing street. �* , , ., street. abbi, i found it particularly _ street. abbi, i found it particularly fascinating | street. abbi, i found it i particularly fascinating that in your analysis you are saying the snp are very confident as the polls closed last night which could lead to a bigger problem is that they didn't see this coming. i to a bigger problem is that they didn't see this coming.- to a bigger problem is that they didn't see this coming. i think they didn't see this coming. i think they did see it coming, _ didn't see this coming. i think they did see it coming, the _ didn't see this coming. i think they did see it coming, the problem i didn't see this coming. i think they | did see it coming, the problem was they didn't — did see it coming, the problem was they didn't think it would be as big a merger— they didn't think it would be as big a merger between, we didn't think it would _ a merger between, we didn't think it would he _ a merger between, we didn't think it would he as— a merger between, we didn't think it would be as big a win for labour because — would be as big a win for labour because it — would be as big a win for labour because it was only 8000 votes were the snp _ because it was only 8000 votes were the snp whereas michael shanks had more than _ the snp whereas michael shanks had more than 20,000, but there is a lot of factors— more than 20,000, but there is a lot of factors that play into that which have been— of factors that play into that which have been discussed, it was a really low voter— have been discussed, it was a really low voter turnout, only about 37~i9%, — low voter turnout, only about 37.19%, 30,000 out of 80,000 electorate, so the snp, the people i was speaking to last night and today have said _ was speaking to last night and today have said their voters just was speaking to last night and today have said their votersjust didn't commit, — have said their votersjust didn't commit, that court pro independence vote didn't _ commit, that court pro independence vote didn't come out and we did see a lot of— vote didn't come out and we did see a lot of tory— vote didn't come out and we did see a lot of tory votes shifting to labour— a lot of tory votes shifting to labour as— a lot of tory votes shifting to labour as well, the tory candidate didn't— labour as well, the tory candidate didn't get— labour as well, the tory candidate didn't get his deposit back because he didn't— didn't get his deposit back because he didn't get 5% of the vote. neither— he didn't get 5% of the vote. neither did the lib dems. the snp and labour were the only two that did because a recent threshold because — did because a recent threshold because that was the two parties fighting — because that was the two parties fighting it out in that election. let's — fighting it out in that election. let's zoom out little. gn fighting it out in that election. let's zoom out little.- fighting it out in that election. let's zoom out little. on a turnout there fighting it out in that election. let's zoom out little. gn fighting it out in that election. let's zoom out little.- let's zoom out little. on a turnout there was a _ let's zoom out little. on a turnout there was a recent by-election i there was a recent by—election in airdrie which the snp won and the turnout and that was actually slightly lower so i think the turnout argument is a bit weak to the snp. i turnout argument is a bit weak to the snp. ., ., ., ., ., the snp. i am hearing labour ahead of their conference _ the snp. i am hearing labour ahead of their conference had _ the snp. i am hearing labour ahead of their conference had an _ the snp. i am hearing labour ahead of their conference had an extra i of their conference had an extra wing for the number of businesspeople that turn out and hobnob. we heard there from dale vince a moment to go. the message we are getting a safety first, don't rock any votes, they had to be more than that surely. i rock any votes, they had to be more than that surely.— than that surely. i think if you take a step — than that surely. i think if you take a step back— than that surely. i think if you take a step back and - than that surely. i think if you take a step back and look- than that surely. i think if you take a step back and look at l than that surely. i think if you i take a step back and look at british history, as you well know, the labour party doesn't win many elections. it is rare for the labour party to beat as consistently ahead in the polls. so i understand from a strategic point of view the fact that they don't want to do anything to take any unnecessary risks or scare the horses.— to take any unnecessary risks or scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i am — scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i am not _ scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i am not sure _ scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i am not sure if— scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i am not sure if that - scare the horses. don't do anything at all? i am not sure if that is i at all? i am not sure if that is accurate _ at all? i am not sure if that is accurate because _ at all? i am not sure if that is accurate because look - at all? i am not sure if that is accurate because look at i at all? i am not sure if that is i accurate because look at where they are in the polls. you could argue keir starmer is doing quite a good job. if yourjob is to get people numbers turned around. but what you are going to see is a little bit more flesh on the bone in terms of a narrative of what appears to's britain could look like. we have seen some announcement today, on housing, from the deputy leader, but just think about this from a strategic and tactical point of view, if labour put the entire shop window out now, that is just a recipe for disaster. they haven't even been to see the books yet in terms of the departments, they don't say what