Warm in scotland, 9 degrees in aberdeen, compared with 2a or 25 across parts of south east england. And then as we head through saturday night, the rain band will slowly shift its way northwards, so, for there of central parts of scotland it will turn just a little bit drier. On sunday the heaviest rain will be across the north of scotland into orkney, elsewhere, some spells of sunshine, maybe not quite as warm on sunday but still pretty remarkable for october, 2a degrees in the south east, little bit less cool in northern parts of scotland. Extra week starts off warm in the south, only slowly will it start to feel more like we would expect in october. Astonishing. Ben rich, thank you. Thats it. More analysis is on newsnight with faisal islam, over on bbc two. But the news continues here on bbc one, with cheering a 20 swing by election and suddenly those 44 Snp Westminster seats look a bit shaky. Does this Remove A Key Roadblock for the opposition in place for nearly nine years or will caution win the war for labour . Is it now time after this for Keir The Bold . What youve seen is keir the strategist who knew that we had to take our party from the worst General Election result since 1935 to a General Election victory that required us to change the party at pace and ruthlessly. And what does it say about any path for independence . Well hearfrom Labours PartyChairfrom Liverpool as she prepares for conference. And from an mp who was until recently in the snp. Also tonight, he has notjust abandoned his funding forthe campaign groupJust Stop Oil, but now thinks the time for protest is done. We hear from the eco entrepeneur whos backing labour, dale vince. They may carry on and do it, i dont know. What im saying is, i think that will assist the conservatives in their desperate attempt to get re elected. It will be part of the culture war. Im not going to fund that any more. And our Political Panel will chew over a significant political week and look ahead to next weeks labour and snp conferences. Its advisable not to read too much into a single poll, or a single by election, but the result in rutherglen and Hamilton West could be one of those moments that change the political weather. Why . Because since 2014 the snp have crushed labour in scottish seats that were once reliable foundations for any chance of a majority. A fundamental blockage of labours most common route to Downing Street. But more than that, it could now be rather difficult for the conservatives to mount campaigns suggesting a labour Prime Minister would be in some way reliant on a nationalist Scottish First minister a staple of their recent election campaigns. The conservatives themselves lost their deposit, which they blame on a pro union squeeze. But this result is important not just for scotland, but for the contours of the entire General Election map. Well hear from the labour chair and a prominent Pro Independence mp in a moment. But first, here is nick from south lanarkshire. A keir born in lanarkshire the father of labour. A Keir Reborn In Lanarkshire victory in a former heartland. When i left here a week ago with the team, i said, youve got to win it. You blew the doors off delighted Labour Members now thinking what had been unthinkable. Might this keir be on the verge of achieving in half a decade what it took this trio a decade and a half to achieve from Abject Failure to number ten . Labour stormed back in rutherglen and Hamilton West, turning a 5,000 snp majority into a 9,000 labour one. And that produced a swing ofjust over 20 from the Snp To Labour. Maybe time to up the pace . So, sir keir starmer, weve seen until now keir the cautious, is it now time after this for Keir The Bold . What youve seen is keir the strategist who knew that we had to take our party from the worst General Election result since 1935 to a General Election victory that required us to change the party at pace and ruthlessly required us to expose the snp and the tories as not fit to govern and then to lay out our positive case. But it is looking like a Majority Labour Uk government. Is it time for you to rip the doors off and say things like i believe in hs2, lets build it . Look, i accept a result like this, humbly. Yesterday people put their faith in a changed labour party here in this constituency of rutherglen. I thank them for that. We will repay that with the careful work that we need to do to go into that General Election. A constituency in need of hope, sending a signal to holyroods governing party, and a First Minister listening. A disappointing night, a tough night for the snp. Very difficult, of course. But, look, the snp has to reflect. Weve got to regroup. Weve got to reorganise. Weve had tough adversity. Tough Election Results in the past. Weve bounced back stronger. Im very, very keen to make sure that we are fighting for the next electoral test. Until the early hours of this morning, this was the only part of scotland in the hands of Scottish Labour in westminster terms edinburgh south. The party has now doubled its number of mps and it has high hopes of doing far better than that in the General Election, potentially easing the path of keir starmer in to number ten. Tell me about the scale of the win. Well, its a phenomenal win for labour cos its notjust that theyve won at all. I think that was quite widely expected, including within the snp. But its the scale of the win. So, weve seen just over a 20 swing to labour. They would have needed 5 6 to win the seat. But emily gray warns, remember, this is a by election. We shouldnt read too much into it when it comes to the next General Election, because actually by elections are quite unusual events. So, turnout is much lower than it would be in a General Election. People often vote in protest. Weve also seen a lot of Tactical Voting. So conservative and lib dem voters who voted that way in 2019, then giving their vote to labour this time around to kick the snp out locally. So all of those factors might well not be replicated at a General Election. Its a kind of perfect storm. On the one hand, their policies are not fit for purpose in the new situation. On the other hand, if you like, the Independence Referendum Approach has hit a very big brick wall. For the snp, a prominent historian believes it is losing its hold, despite strong support for independence, which he supported. I harp on about the future as not my period as an historian, but the other hand, weve got to remember, i think, that the Independence Vote in terms of Opinion Polls is still around about the mid 405. That hasnt completely collapsed. I think what has been injured, perhaps mortally even, and we dont know about the future of course in that sense, mortally, is the vehicle for independence, which is the snp. The government has developed almost a record of incompetence, or at least perceived incompetence over the last few years. A Wind Of Change in the air. Labor hopes its time has come again. The snp knows it has a fight. Nick watt, there. So, what are the numbers . What does this swing mean if repeated . And what does it tell us about the General Election battle over the next year or so . Here isjoe at the wall. Parties have no end of voter data these days. But its still swing which displays changes most clearly. And it was popularised by this man. Labour needed that swing, 2 or more, to win the election. David butler, the late, great sultan of swing. Here analysing an increased macmillan majority in 1959. Fast forward more than half a century and this is the rutherglen and Hamilton West result. First, look at lines two and three. A big drop in snp support almost i7 . And the tories down ii . Suggesting that each partys supporters are not happy with their governments records in holyrood and westminster. So lets do the maths and calculate the swing. First, we need to take labours percentage gain in support. And add the snp� s fall in support. That makes 40. 7. Divide that by two and we get the swing 20. 1; percentage points. It is huge. And if we fire up the newsnight swingometer, the swing from Snp To Labour needed to be about 5 for keir starmer� s party to win this seat. Recent polls suggested theyd be looking at a number nearer to ii. And as we know from our arithmetic, labour actually achieved something far far bigger. If that was replicated in a General Election, anas sarwar� s party would get around a0 seats in scotland. But one word of warning by elections are merely snapshots. And turnout yesterday was a very low 37 . Its also worth looking at the shift in support in a different way. Heres the 2019 result from rutherglen and Hamilton West. Butjust watch how that has now changed the labour red gets larger. The tory blue and snp yellow significantly smaller. If we look at them side by side, there will have been some Tactical Voting labour squeezing the tory pro uk vote. Clearly, lots of voters stayed at home. But there also must have been some Snp To Labour switchers. The person with most to fear from all this is humza yousaf, the snp leader, just six months into thejob. Some believe kate forbes here on the right who came second in the leadership race, is still a solid prospect for First Minister. And ash regan on the left, who came third remains a pretty Vocal Sceptic of the sturgeonite wing of the snp, of which mr yousaf is a loyal member. He also has the added distraction of this. Now, heres the manifesto shake things up. Alex salmonds alba party which has two mp defectors but which has posed little electoral threat. Plus, battles with angus macneil, the veteran mp recently expelled from the snp. And fergus ewing a Scottish Government minister for 14 years last week suspended for criticising the leadership. Of course, there are rows, rivalries and splits in every political party. But the snp has in recent history been united and disciplined. So have sagging poll numbers changed that internal grip . So have sagging poll numbers just look at recent trends. Nicola sturgeon� s resignation in the spring seems to have been a significant moment hitting her own party. And boosting labour. Humza yousaf may be able to turn it around. But if not, Scottish Labour could ease keir starmer� s path to Downing Street. Joining us from liverpool ahead of the conference is Labour Party Chair and shadow Secretary Of State for women and equalities annaliese dodds. Thanks forjoining us. Isnt the result in rejection of two problem stone governments in westminster and holyrood are not necessarily an endorsement of the party . Problem stone. It endorsement of the party . Problem stone. ,. , , endorsement of the party . Problem stone. ,. , , stone. It is a message being sent by the eole stone. It is a message being sent by the peeple of stone. It is a message being sent by the people of rutherglen stone. It is a message being sent by the people of rutherglen and the people of rutherglen and Hamilton West, first of all, yes, to both of those failing governments, same to the snp and the conservatives that they have had enough of chaos and division, but also saying very clearly, that they want change, they want a government that will deliver change in holyrood and in westminster as well and that message was coming across time and time again during the campaign. Because we focused on the issues that people raised with us and they wanted to see action for working people, especially in the middle of a cost of living crisis they are not getting that action either from the snp or the conservatives and they can see that labour would be delivering that change. You can see that labour would be delivering that change. You heard in the re ort, delivering that change. You heard in the report. If delivering that change. You heard in the report, if swing delivering that change. You heard in the report, if swing is delivering that change. You heard in the report, if swing is repeated the report, if swing is repeated enough, it could get you back to when you were a decade or so ago, a0 seats or more, are you measuring the curtains for Downing Street in liverpool . Liverpool . No, there is no complacency liverpool . No, there is no complacency here liverpool . No, there is no complacency here at liverpool . No, there is no complacency here at all i liverpool . No, there is no | complacency here at all and liverpool . No, there is no complacency here at all and we liverpool . No, there is no complacency here at all and we know that obviously we have got to work hard for every single vote and we need to show that we can provide that change but actually under keir starmer, he has shown how he can turn the labour party around and how he can change our party and he is ready to change our country to really focus on the issues which are so critical for people a mission led government, and working hand in hand with Scottish Labour and i think the result demonstrates that is what people are crying out for, crying out for a change that only labour can deliver. Out for a change that only labour can deliver out for a change that only labour can deliver. Every time the Prime Minister makes can deliver. Every time the Prime Minister makes a can deliver. Every time the Prime Minister makes a radical can deliver. Every time the Prime Minister makes a radical change | can deliver. Every time the Primel Minister makes a radical change in policy which seems to be happening a lot recently, you have almost set your watch by the fact a Labour Spokesperson will pop up and say, we dont like this, we would not have done this but theres not much we can do, we have seen this on repeated policies from Investment Spending to the Child Benefit Cap to hsz, it is spending to the Child Benefit Cap to hs2, it is not very bold, is it . Quite opposite, in fact, from rishi sunak we have seen hollow promises of change when we have had 13 years under the conservatives with five different Prime Ministers, and that change simply is not delivered and in fact things are getting worse for so many people, people feeling that they have less money in their pockets and that Public Services are crumbling and the streets are less safe and there are a number nhs Waiting Times. Safe and there are a number nhs Waiting TimesWaiting Times. Yes, but are you actually offering Waiting Times. Yes, but are you actually offering anything Waiting Times. Yes, but are you i actually offering anything specific . A big Policy Change On Hs2 which you have endorsed repeatedly, and now you cannot do much about it, that is your response . In you cannot do much about it, that is your resoonse . Your response . In that case, obviously. Your response . In that case, obviously, after your response . In that case, obviously, after many your response . In that case, obviously, after many yearsl your response . In that case, | obviously, after many years of indecision and delay, the government has blown a massive hole in that Hs2 Programme and we learned that ministers are even right now selling off some of the land that is critical for that project, but if you focus on what keir starmer has set up, the emissions for government, it is very clear that labour would be doing things very differently. We are determined to make sure that the nhs is fit for the future we have announced how we would be revolutionising people puzzling access to Nhs Dentistry which is a huge problem in the country right now peoples access. We would be taking choices and we feel that if people live here they should pay tax and we would use they should pay tax and we would use the money by getting rid of the land a