from a crucial scottish by—election. what will it tell us about the prospects for labour and the snp? stand by — your election night coverage starts here. party strategists at labour and the snp will be burning the midnight oil, working what today's crunch vote in scotland tells them about the next general election. nick's there and has read the runes. both horses in this two—horse race agree on the winner — labour. now a new race is under way — expectation management. snp and labour mps are with us to discuss whether labour is indeed about to carry this off. also tonight, 51 people are killed in a strike that hit a cafe in kharkiv, while president zelensky meets european leaders gathered in spain. are ukraine's western allies still committed to the fight? we must not allow putin to destabilise any other part of the world and our partners in order to ruin europe's power. we speak to the exiled opposition leader of belarus. and america's greens agonise about mining lithium for car batteries. is saving the planet worth insulting native americans whose ancestors died there? the us cavalry chased the people into this area here where the mine is and they were massacred. it is a tragedy and it should be deemed a historical site. that should stop the mining altogether. good evening. the polls are closed and the counting underway in the rutherglen and hamilton west by—election. it came about because of the recall of the sitting scottish national party mp, margaret ferrier, for breaking covid restrictions — breaches so serious the party kicked her out. but with suggestions that even modest swings against her former party might bring labour big dividends in a general election everyone is now scrutinising the result. it may well give a sense of the poilitical trends, both for the snp in the post nicola sturgeon era, and for labour. we won't be certain of the outcome for a while yet, but nick is at the count and joins us now. what's happening nick? well, mark, as you can see, the sorting and verification of ballot boxesis sorting and verification of ballot boxes is under way at the headquarters of south lanarkshire council in hamilton and the two parties in contention believe there is a clear winner and that is the labour party. now, the significance of that and this seat is we are right in the heart of scotland's central belt, which was of course labour's citadel in scotland until the referendum in 2014. now since the referendum in 2014. now since the 2015 general election, this seat has changed hands between the snp and labour at every general election since. what is happening now, it is a process of expectation management by those two parties. labour sources are suggesting that they are a hopeful of a good result, but they are playing down their prospects of are playing down their prospects of a big break through. they're talking about a low turn out and how it is appalling weather. the reason why they're doing that is there an assumption they should do well and they won the seat in 2017 and should win it here and judging by where they are in the until opinion polls, they are in the until opinion polls, they should be doing really well. the snp sources are suggesting they don't expect to win and are talking about the difficult circumstances running up to the by—election, margaret ferrier�*s recall petition and the difficult circumstances in their party. they have set a challenge to labour — they say you should be getting at least 50% here, you're up against the snp who have beenin you're up against the snp who have been in government for 16 years and the wider uk picture, you're up against a uk government that has beenin against a uk government that has been in powerfor 13 years. this seat isn't the only one that's been the subject of a seesaw competition between labour and the snp. there's a history of them in fact — at times lauded as turning points, at others unleashing hopes that were later dashed at a general election. joe's been looking at the record of labour/snp byelection battles and what lessons we might draw. thanks mark. some scottish by—elections are dramatic turning points. significant. significant set—piece skirmishes in the decades—long war between the scottish national party and scottish labour. there are five iconic examples. we'll soon find out if tonight's race could be a sixth. the modern political dynamics of scotland can be traced back to one by—election in 1967. in the same part of lanarkshire in the west of scotland we're watching this evening. winnie ewing's triumph in the labour heartland of hamilton was a breakthrough for the snp. only the second time the nationalists had won a westminster seat. and it marked the beginning of the rise of the modern independence movement. hamilton has made history for scotland tonight. thank you all. next, margo mcdonald's victory in glasgow govan 1973. another shock for scottish labour. but the flipside came in glasgow garscadden in 1978. amidst disagreement over devolution, labour were under pressure to hold onto the seat. and they did. that success marked a return to parliament for the man who became the father of devolution. and eventually scotland's first first minister. it's a famous victory, we asked the people to say no to separation and they have done it. it has changed they have done it. it has changed the psychological climate of scottish politics and scotland has hit back. in the 1980s yet another major upset in glasgow govan. the snp�*sjim sillars took advantage of a complacent labour campaign. beating a candidate the scottish sun described as a "tattooed knucklehead". in 2008, the snp were again victorious in a once—rock—solid labour seat. winning glasgow east with a stonking 26% swing. a foretaste of the nationalist glory days to come. three weeks ago the snp predicted a political earthquake. this snp victory is notjust a political earthquake, it is off the richter scale. so the snp aren't bad at by—elections. in fact they have never lost one for a westminster seat. will that run of success end tonight? now if we look at the last scotland general election result in 2019, there's loads of snp yellow. but scottish races are really decided in the central belt, the populus patch around glasgow and edinburgh. labour currently have just a single seat. yet if we roll back to the 2010 general election results, that landscape was so different. of course we are unlikely to see a return to anything approaching this anytime soon, but it does demonstrate the mass of former labour seats in and around glasgow. and tonight's focus — rutherglen and hamilton west — is right in the middle. if labour win there, what could it mean for the next general election? if hindeed if indeed labour in tonight's by—election do replicate the kinds of figures that the scotland—wide opinion polls are anticipating, around an 11% swing, if you assume that that swing were to occur across scotland as a whole, we could be talking about labour picking up some 17 seats or so. and we should bear in mind here that for around every 12 seats or so that labour pick up in scotland, you can probably knock two points off the lead over the conservatives that labour would need across the uk as a whole to get an overall majority of one and given that labour face an adverse electoral geography south of the border and to that extent at least every bit will potentially help labour. for now, there are still more pandas in edinburgh zoo — two — than scottish labour mps — one. but tian tian and yang guang are soon to return to china after problems procreating. anas sarwar and his predecessors have faced very different labour pains in the last decade or so. but they'll soon be hoping to multiply their mps. and do it less like pandas and more like rabbits. and in the coming hours we'll find out if tonight's by—election can be added to the other five startling and even spectacular moments in scottish political history. let's go back to nick. you probably heard joe's look at these by—election fights, what do you think the broader context is now? this by—election matters for two big reasons. it matters for the future of the uk. is the party that historically has been the largest prounion party in scotland, is that scottish labour back in business and shows they have broken the snp�*s magic spell of the last decade, that if you support independence, you will vote snp? the second reason it matters is a big labour success in scotland will have a huge impact on keir starmer�*s ability to form a majority government after a uk general election. you heard joe say that labour doesn't need that many seats in scotland to reduce the overall swing that the labour party would need in the rest of britain. it is an emotional by—election for labour, the last decade has been a story of complete misery for them. after the 2014 independence referendum, we faced almost the complete obliteration of the scottish labour party. think about this n2010, gordon brown won 41 of the 59 seats in scotland. in the 2019 election, scottish labour got one out of 59. so that they're going to want to show tonight is they're climbing out of that hole.- climbing out of that hole. thank ou. from the count, the snp�*s david lindenjoins us — he's the snp�*s spokesperson for socialjustice in wesminster and the party's campaign coordinator in rutherglen and hamilton west. and from our glasgow studio, labour's shadow scotland secretary, ian murray. ian murray, let's start with you, perhaps early to congratulate, but the views from there do seem to be that you have won this. but that is not enough, you have got to win it by a convincing margin? i441431111 not enough, you have got to win it by a convincing margin?— not enough, you have got to win it by a convincing margin? well as with all by-elections, _ by a convincing margin? well as with all by-elections, we _ by a convincing margin? well as with all by-elections, we have _ by a convincing margin? well as with all by-elections, we have to - by a convincing margin? well as with all by-elections, we have to wait - all by—elections, we have to wait and see what the result is. but one vote is enough to double the number of scottish labour mps that, would be a tremendous result. when i was on newsnight after being appointed shadow secretary of state in 2020, we had a discussion about whether the scottish labour party could survive and given we are here talking about whether we will double our mps and this being a seismic change shows how far keir starmer has taken the labour. but change shows how far keir starmer has taken the labour.— change shows how far keir starmer has taken the labour. but have been the john has taken the labour. but have been the john curtice _ has taken the labour. but have been the john curtice point _ has taken the labour. but have been the john curtice point about - has taken the labour. but have been the john curtice point about if- thejohn curtice point about if labour is to be in line you need to win by 11%. even a five or six per cent margin might seem to be a loss of momentum relative to the polls. we talk a lot about polls and rightly so, they're an important indicator and trends are important, but this is crosses in ballot boxes, which is much more important in terms of seeing the direction of the voters and the trends in the country. that is what we are looking forward to seeing tonight. we don't want to be pre—empting what might happen. but it has been dreadfully wet here in rutherglen and hamilton for the last few days. all our activists have foot rot with the amount of water they have been taking on board. that will depress turnout. it is a by—election and turnout. it is a by—election and turn youpts are lower than —— turn youpts outs are lower. we have in the last six months fought for every single vote with a positive message and we are looking forward to see if thatis and we are looking forward to see if that is changed into a good election result tonight.— result tonight. david linden, for the snp view. _ result tonight. david linden, for the snp view. are _ result tonight. david linden, for the snp view. are we _ result tonight. david linden, for the snp view. are we calling - result tonight. david linden, for| the snp view. are we calling this too early, do you think your candidate could still win this? i4541431111 candidate could still win this? well the ballot boxes _ candidate could still win this? well the ballot boxes are being opened. there _ the ballot boxes are being opened. there is_ the ballot boxes are being opened. there is no— the ballot boxes are being opened. there is no doubt there has been a challenging backdrop for the snp. it is a tight— challenging backdrop for the snp. it is a tight marginal seat that has flipped — is a tight marginal seat that has flipped between labour party and the snp since _ flipped between labour party and the snp since 2010, including in 2017. so we _ snp since 2010, including in 2017. so we wiii— snp since 2010, including in 2017. so we will see how the result pans out. so we will see how the result pans out one _ so we will see how the result pans out one of— so we will see how the result pans out. one of the things that has been clear to _ out. one of the things that has been clear to me — out. one of the things that has been clear to me over the course of this campaign — clear to me over the course of this campaign is — clear to me over the course of this campaign is the complete collapse in conservative support that seems to have transferred to the labour party — have transferred to the labour party it — have transferred to the labour party it is _ have transferred to the labour party. it is up to ian murray to explain _ party. it is up to ian murray to explain why keir starmer's pro—brexit labour party seems attractive — pro—brexit labour party seems attractive to the conservatives. a attractive to the conservatives. tactical vote by unionists? attractive to the conservatives. a tacticalvote by unionists? i'm . attractive to the conservatives. a| tacticalvote by unionists? i'm not sure itjust _ tacticalvote by unionists? i'm not sure itjust that, _ tacticalvote by unionists? i'm not sure it just that, part _ tacticalvote by unionists? i'm not sure itjust that, part of— tacticalvote by unionists? i'm not sure itjust that, part of problem | sure itjust that, part of problem is keir— sure itjust that, part of problem is keir starmerand his sure itjust that, part of problem is keir starmer and his pro—brexit labour— is keir starmer and his pro—brexit labour party are similar to that of the conservative party in terms of its support — the conservative party in terms of its support for the two—child policy and rape _ its support for the two—child policy and rape clause and support for a hard _ and rape clause and support for a hard brexit— and rape clause and support for a hard brexit that has put money on food biiis — hard brexit that has put money on food bills. on big policies like rwanda — food bills. on big policies like rwanda and small boats you can't get a cigarette _ rwanda and small boats you can't get a cigarette paper between labour and the conservatives and so they have voted _ the conservatives and so they have voted for _ the conservatives and so they have voted for the labour party. david keeps mentioning keir starmer. his polling is not in line with your party's? a figure of 49% negative versus 29% of people in scotland approve of keir starmer whereas your party is, as we have said, 11% ahead or thereabouts in the polls so is keir starmer a net positive or negative for you north of the border? ., .,, negative for you north of the border? ., , ., border? the two most popular politicians _ border? the two most popular politicians in _ border? the two most popular politicians in scotland - border? the two most popular politicians in scotland are - border? the two most popular politicians in scotland are keir| politicians in scotland are keir starmer — politicians in scotland are keir starmer and anas sarwar by a considerable margin and david needs to be more _ considerable margin and david needs to be more humble in terms of his analysis— to be more humble in terms of his analysis of— to be more humble in terms of his analysis of this by—election campaign because anyone who puts their cross — campaign because anyone who puts their cross in the labour box, many snp supporters have been doing that on the _ snp supporters have been doing that on the doorsteps and i spoke to someone — on the doorsteps and i spoke to someone this morning not far from the campaign office who was an snp member— the campaign office who was an snp member who voted for michael shanks and scottish labour this morning so and scottish labour this morning so a little _ and scottish labour this morning so a little bit _ and scottish labour this morning so a little bit more humble from david linden _ a little bit more humble from david linden and — a little bit more humble from david linden and perhaps self reflection about— linden and perhaps self reflection about why they may lose this by—election rather than throwing around _ by—election rather than throwing around accusations that nobody believes — around accusations that nobody believes on the doorstep. you can come back — believes on the doorstep. you can come back in _ believes on the doorstep. you can come back in that _ believes on the doorstep. you can come back in that but _ believes on the doorstep. you can come back in that but by - believes on the doorstep. you can come back in that but by all - believes on the doorstep. you can i come back in that but by all means, you have never lost a by—election, the snp? you just do not want to lose this one, symbolically? given the snp's recent _ lose this one, symbolically? given the snp's recent rise _ lose this one, symbolically? given the snp's recent rise in _ lose this one, symbolically? given the snp's recent rise in terms - lose this one, symbolically? given the snp's recent rise in terms of l the snp's recent rise in terms of its contest at westminster elections, they have only had no one by—election since then so it will be interesting to see how labour perform against that but back to the point ian murray made, these are not wild acquisitions, it is a matter of plain fact that the pro—brexit labour party led by keir starmer supports a brexit that people in scotland did not vote for and it is a fact that keir starmer support are brittle to child policy, it is a matter of fact they have the exact same policy when it comes to rwanda and it is a matter of fact the labour party supports the benefits tax and that is what scottish labour will have to confront sooner rather than later. it will also be an interesting point to see how it michael shanks, who was trying to distance himself from so many of his labour policies, votes in the house of commons if elected tonight. david, is it not also a matter of fact that polling and all the rest of it, there is a feeling of the snp having lost its mojo post nicola sturgeon? the partyjust cannot come alive and that has not found the right messaging? i alive and that has not found the right messaging?— alive and that has not found the right messaging? i don't think it has been. _ right messaging? i don't think it has been, one _ right messaging? i don't think it has been, one of— right messaging? i don't think it has been, one of the _ right messaging? i don't think it has been, one of the things - right messaging? i don't think it has been, one of the things in i right messaging? i don't think it i has been, one of the things in your analysis, you forget the 2017 election when scottish labour got six or seven mps and since then the snp rose back again but this has been a challenging backdrop for the party but i am confident under humza yousaf�*s leadership that we are resolute in our focus on the cost—of—living crisis and making the case that people of scotland should make decisions for scotland and not a westminster government we did not vote for. ,, . ~ , a westminster government we did not vote for. ,, w , , ., vote for. quickly, before the end, i would like your— vote for. quickly, before the end, i would like your views _ vote for. quickly, before the end, i would like your views on _ vote for. quickly, before the end, i would like your views on the - vote for. quickly, before the end, i would like your views on the h52 i would like your views on the hs2 decision. you are fiercely critical of rishi sunak yesterday. keir starmer is still on the fence on this. he is not committing to complete the real way to manchester? it is just a sensible decision at it isjust a sensible decision at the moment in order to wait and see what happens. no doubt the prime minister— what happens. no doubt the prime minister has lost control of this project — minister has lost control of this project and they have driven a coach and horses— project and they have driven a coach and horses through it at the moment in order— and horses through it at the moment in order to _ and horses through it at the moment in orderto wait and horses through it at the moment in order to wait and see what happens _ in order to wait and see what happens. no doubt the prime minister has lost _ happens. no doubt the prime minister has lost control of this project and they have — has lost control of this project and they have driven a coach and horses through— they have driven a coach and horses through it _ they have driven a coach and horses through it and the reports today are looking _ through it and the reports today are looking at— through it and the reports today are looking at selling off the land quickly — looking at selling off the land quickly in order for the line not to bem _ quickly in order for the line not to bem so— quickly in order for the line not to bem so let — quickly in order for the line not to be... so let us wait and see what happens — be... so let us wait and see what happens as— be... so let us wait and see what happens as we get closer to the next election— happens as we get closer to the next election but it is sensible and the public— election but it is sensible and the public will— election but it is sensible and the public will see that if somebody drives— public will see that if somebody drives a — public will see that if somebody drives a coach and horses through a massive _ drives a coach and horses through a massive project then the cost of even _ massive project then the cost of even getting that back and running again— even getting that back and running again could be out with any reasonableness. it is a sensible decision— reasonableness. it is a sensible decision until we see all of the facts _ decision until we see all of the facts and — decision until we see all of the facts and figures and see what is happening as we get closer to the next election.— next election. david linden, is there a view— next election. david linden, is there a view from _ next election. david linden, is there a view from the - next election. david linden, is there a view from the snp - next election. david linden, is there a view from the snp on | next election. david linden, is - there a view from the snp on this? particularly as to whether the snp would favour the completion of the northern line of hs2? i we would favour the completion of the northern line of h52?_ would favour the completion of the northern line of h52? i use the west coast main line _ northern line of h52? i use the west coast main line on _ northern line of h52? i use the west coast main line on a _ northern line of h52? i use the west coast main line on a regular - northern line of h52? i use the west coast main line on a regular basis i coast main line on a regular basis and it would love to see it coming to glasgow but with this conservative government, broken promises are not something that, as a huge surprise to people in scotland so i would like to see hs2 coming to scotland but it is highly unlikely, given the conservative government have scrapped the plans and ian murray has confirmed the labour party has as well.- and ian murray has confirmed the labour party has as well. thank you both indeed- _ the european political community has been meeting in the spanish city of granada. today provided a chance for 47 leaders in or out of the european union to discuss whatever�*s worrying them. it's come at a time when several european countries are taking a line more critical of ukraine. that's not about throwing in the towel — the bigger nations at granada all still strongly support ukraine's right to resist russian invasion. underlining the cost of that conflict, a missile strike in the north east of ukraine killed 51 people today. arriving at the summit, president zelensky condemmed it as a "demonstrably brutal russian crime". for a host of western countries, support for ukraine isn't as simple as it once was. the government in slovakia has just changed to one that leans closer to russia. in poland, the ruling party has been putting the squeeze on ukraine's grain exports with quotas — and, indeed, restrictions on arms supplies. hungary has also imposed grain quotas. and a bust—up in the us congress has derailed — for now, at least — a $6 billion request for ukraine. vladimir putin today tried to pour oil on troubled waters, blaming europe for its own economic woes and the lack of a peace process. translation: it's not us who shuts the door on joint communication. i it's europe that's fencing itself off from us and creating a new iron curtain. we are not creating it, but europeans are creating it to their loss. volodymyr zelensky had not been expected to attend today's meeting in spain, but these are concerning times for his government and he wanted to be in the room, urging them to keep the faith. the main challenge, what we have, that is to save unity in europe. and i'm speaking not only about the countries in eu, it's in all the europe. i think that is the biggest challenge what we'll have. because russia will attack by information, disinformation, by fakes and etc. with the summer's fighting coming to an end without a breakthrough, ukraine once again has to restock its ammunition supplies, and particularly the air defences that will be needed to protect national infrastructure during the coming winter. here again, national factors will play a role. there are limits to what allies can now give. so for the leaders attending today, they certainly don't want russia to win, but their ability to support ukraine indefinitely and uncritically suspending national politics as usual is fraying. we'rejoined now from spain by sviatlana tsikhanouskaya, the exiled belarus opposition leader. in the studio, alissa de carbonnel, the deputy programme director for europe and central asia at crisis group. and colonel daniel davis, a former pentagon staff officerfrom washington. and critic of the current policy. first to sviatlana. you tweeted today that attacking kharkiv with this heavy loss of life served as a reminder of the need for western commitment. does that mean you are worried that it cannot be taken for granted, that it might be fraying? in taken for granted, that it might be fra inc? �* . , ., ., fraying? in belarus we have to look at belarus not _ fraying? in belarus we have to look at belarus not only _ fraying? in belarus we have to look at belarus not only as _ fraying? in belarus we have to look at belarus not only as a _ fraying? in belarus we have to look at belarus not only as a problem i fraying? in belarus we have to lookl at belarus not only as a problem but part of the solution and belarus can help ukraine and the war and russia too. we will always be a source of threat. ., ., threat. you met the eu foreign oli threat. you met the eu foreign policy chief _ threat. you met the eu foreign policy chief today. _ threat. you met the eu foreign policy chief today. he - threat. you met the eu foreign policy chief today. he said i threat. you met the eu foreign i policy chief today. he said today, as it happens, that if there are problems in the us that the provision of further aid, for ukraine, europe cannot fill the gap. itjust seems like potentially ukraine, europe cannot fill the gap. it just seems like potentially there is a little bit of creaking in the alliance, that the previous assumptions that commitment could be taken as read may not be quite so safe. is that where you? fit taken as read may not be quite so safe. is that where you? of course, we are suoporting _ safe. is that where you? of course, we are supporting ukraine - safe. is that where you? of course, we are supporting ukraine as i safe. is that where you? of course, we are supporting ukraine as much| safe. is that where you? of course, i we are supporting ukraine as much as we are supporting ukraine as much as we can and we understand that only a native position to supply ukraine will help ukraine so i am really afraid of fatigue or a split of opinion about supplies to ukraine because ukraine are in the fight not just for themselves but for the security of the whole region. democracy has to stay united in opposing the regime. find democracy has to stay united in opposing the regime. and obviously for ou, opposing the regime. and obviously for you. coming _ opposing the regime. and obviously for you, coming from _ opposing the regime. and obviously for you, coming from belarus, i opposing the regime. and obviously for you, coming from belarus, the l for you, coming from belarus, the attitude of the polish government is very important. what do you think of the recent actions by the government there, quotas on grain exports, saying they would stop arms shipments to ukraine? i saying they would stop arms shipments to ukraine? i think that since the beginning _ shipments to ukraine? i think that since the beginning of— shipments to ukraine? i think that since the beginning of the - shipments to ukraine? i think that since the beginning of the war, i since the beginning of the war, poland was one of the most decisive countries in their support for ukraine. so it a political misunderstanding, but i really doubt that poland. supporting ukraine because poland has done so much. they accepted so many ukrainian refugees. they supplied so many weapons to ukraine. because ukraine and poland has a common good and it is in the interests of poland that ukraine wins this war. you is in the interests of poland that ukraine wins this war.— is in the interests of poland that ukraine wins this war. you have had our own ukraine wins this war. you have had your own experience _ ukraine wins this war. you have had your own experience of _ ukraine wins this war. you have had your own experience of dealing i ukraine wins this war. you have had your own experience of dealing with j your own experience of dealing with western countries since the election was stolen in your own country, in belarus, by president lukashenka. what does it tell you about western countries' attention spans? the ability to get access to decision—makers? how long does it last in a crisis? decision-makers? how long does it last in a crisis?— last in a crisis? first of all, i ask you _ last in a crisis? first of all, i ask you rrot _ last in a crisis? first of all, i ask you not to _ last in a crisis? first of all, i ask you not to go _ last in a crisis? first of all, i ask you not to go to - last in a crisis? first of all, i ask you not to go to the i last in a crisis? first of all, i i ask you not to go to the russian president, he is a person who seized power in the country and with the help of tyranny and the support of putin, he is still there. so yes, you know, many things can be done by the european union to help our region. i am the european union to help our region. iam in the european union to help our region. i am in the heart of belarus and i ask you to keep us on the agenda. to impose sanctions on the regime. we are not asking to fight instead of us, they are just asking for powerful countries to help us to win this for against the imperial ambitions of russia. and i think that europe has power and decisiveness to end this work together with us.— together with us. sviatlana tsikhanouskaya, _ together with us. sviatlana tsikhanouskaya, thank i together with us. sviatlana tsikhanouskaya, thank you together with us. sviatlana i tsikhanouskaya, thank you very together with us. sviatlana _ tsikhanouskaya, thank you very much forjoining us. we can go to alissa in the studio. i suppose there are various ways to see what is going on at the moment and perhaps a return to politics as usual for slovakia or poland or hungary or some of these other countries that have been supporting ukraine. is that right, the effect of having to stay unified alongside ukraine is wearing off? fir alongside ukraine is wearing off? or is else going on? i think from the beginning. — is else going on? i think from the beginning, ukraine has been fighting a battle _ beginning, ukraine has been fighting a battle on two fronts, in the battlefield and it is incredibly dependent on western support and only more — dependent on western support and only more so, including in keeping the government running, so for the budget, _ the government running, so for the budget, not— the government running, so for the budget, notjust for weapons the government running, so for the budget, not just for weapons and supplies — budget, not just for weapons and supplies i— budget, not just for weapons and supplies. i think part of what we are seeing — supplies. i think part of what we are seeing now, and always has been horse _ are seeing now, and always has been horse trading over sanctions and discussions over unity, they are still there — discussions over unity, they are still there for the majority, it should — still there for the majority, it should be said that the policy has not shifted greatly. it is still a nrinority— not shifted greatly. it is still a minority view that is talking about cutting _ minority view that is talking about cutting support or looking for ways to barter — cutting support or looking for ways to barter. certainly, the counteroffensive itself, the hype around _ counteroffensive itself, the hype around it— counteroffensive itself, the hype around it and the stakes around it and the _ around it and the stakes around it and the disappointment that it has not really— and the disappointment that it has not really delivered as much as some people _ not really delivered as much as some people expected, is fuelling renewed debate _ people expected, is fuelling renewed debate. , . ., debate. daniel davies in washington, definitely we — debate. daniel davies in washington, definitely we see _ debate. daniel davies in washington, definitely we see some _ debate. daniel davies in washington, definitely we see some of _ debate. daniel davies in washington, definitely we see some of that - debate. daniel davies in washington, definitely we see some of that upsetl definitely we see some of that upset about the counteroffensive reporting in washington and the situation in the gridlock in the house of representatives there, were $6 billion in aid to ukraine has for the moment being taken out of the budget with the white house saying it hopes to get the money through by other means. is the white house miss reading things? no, ithink no, i think they're clear, this a real— no, i think they're clear, this a real problem _ no, i think they're clear, this a real problem in— no, i think they're clear, this a real problem in the _ no, i think they're clear, this a real problem in the congress i real problem in the congress specifically— real problem in the congress specifically in— real problem in the congress specifically in the _ real problem in the congress specifically in the house i real problem in the congress specifically in the house of. specifically in the house of representatives— specifically in the house of representatives and - specifically in the house of- representatives and president biden said yesterday— representatives and president biden said yesterday that _ representatives and president biden said yesterday that he _ representatives and president biden said yesterday that he is _ representatives and president biden said yesterday that he is about - representatives and president biden said yesterday that he is about to i said yesterday that he is about to announce — said yesterday that he is about to announce a — said yesterday that he is about to announce a speech _ said yesterday that he is about to announce a speech where - said yesterday that he is about to announce a speech where he i said yesterday that he is about to announce a speech where he is. said yesterday that he is about to i announce a speech where he is going tie to— announce a speech where he is going tie to announce — announce a speech where he is going tie to announce way— announce a speech where he is going tie to announce way he _ announce a speech where he is going tie to announce way he goes - announce a speech where he is going tie to announce way he goes around. tie to announce way he goes around congress _ tie to announce way he goes around congress but— tie to announce way he goes around congress. but congress _ tie to announce way he goes around congress. but congress has- tie to announce way he goes around congress. but congress has the i tie to announce way he goes around i congress. but congress has the purse strings— congress. but congress has the purse strings and _ congress. but congress has the purse strings and the — congress. but congress has the purse strings and the president _ congress. but congress has the purse strings and the president may- congress. but congress has the purse strings and the president may have i strings and the president may have flexible _ strings and the president may have flexible to — strings and the president may have flexible to move _ strings and the president may have flexible to move money, _ strings and the president may have flexible to move money, we - strings and the president may have flexible to move money, we will. strings and the president may have i flexible to move money, we will have to wait _ flexible to move money, we will have to wait and _ flexible to move money, we will have to wait and see _ flexible to move money, we will have to wait and see, but _ flexible to move money, we will have to wait and see, but there _ flexible to move money, we will have to wait and see, but there is - flexible to move money, we will have to wait and see, but there is a - flexible to move money, we will have to wait and see, but there is a real i to wait and see, but there is a real issue _ to wait and see, but there is a real issue in— to wait and see, but there is a real issue in the — to wait and see, but there is a real issue in the house _ to wait and see, but there is a real issue in the house of— issue in the house of representatives- issue in the house of. representatives about issue in the house of— representatives about continued giving _ representatives about continued giving money _ representatives about continued giving money. jim _ representatives about continued giving money. jim jordan, - representatives about continued giving money. jim jordan, the i giving money. jim jordan, the leading — giving money. jim jordan, the leading candidate _ giving money. jim jordan, the leading candidate to - giving money. jim jordan, the leading candidate to be - giving money. jim jordan, the i leading candidate to be speaker giving money. jim jordan, the - leading candidate to be speaker said before _ leading candidate to be speaker said before we _ leading candidate to be speaker said before we give — leading candidate to be speaker said before we give any— leading candidate to be speaker said before we give any more, _ leading candidate to be speaker said before we give any more, i- leading candidate to be speaker said before we give any more, i want- leading candidate to be speaker said before we give any more, i want to i before we give any more, i want to hear— before we give any more, i want to hear from — before we give any more, i want to hear from the _ before we give any more, i want to hear from the white _ before we give any more, i want to hear from the white house - before we give any more, i want to hear from the white house what i before we give any more, i want tol hear from the white house what the plan is, _ hear from the white house what the plan is, what — hear from the white house what the plan is. what the _ hear from the white house what the plan is, what the strategy— hear from the white house what the plan is, what the strategy is - hear from the white house what the plan is, what the strategy is and i plan is, what the strategy is and how it _ plan is, what the strategy is and how it will— plan is, what the strategy is and how it will end _ plan is, what the strategy is and how it will end up— plan is, what the strategy is and how it will end up in— plan is, what the strategy is and how it will end up in a _ plan is, what the strategy is and how it will end up in a positive i plan is, what the strategy is and i how it will end up in a positive way for the _ how it will end up in a positive way for the united _ how it will end up in a positive way for the united states. _ how it will end up in a positive way for the united states. that- how it will end up in a positive way for the united states. that is- how it will end up in a positive way for the united states. that is the i for the united states. that is the core issue — for the united states. that is the core issue here _ for the united states. that is the core issue here and _ for the united states. that is the core issue here and when - for the united states. that is the core issue here and when you i for the united states. that is thei core issue here and when you see that this — core issue here and when you see that this counter— core issue here and when you see that this counter offensive - core issue here and when you see that this counter offensive that i core issue here and when you see i that this counter offensive that the ukraine _ that this counter offensive that the ukraine has— that this counter offensive that the ukraine has launched _ that this counter offensive that the ukraine has launched after - that this counter offensive that the ukraine has launched after six i ukraine has launched after six months — ukraine has launched after six months of— ukraine has launched after six months of preparation, - ukraine has launched after six months of preparation, you i ukraine has launched after six. months of preparation, you see ukraine has launched after six i months of preparation, you see it has hardly— months of preparation, you see it has hardly scratched _ months of preparation, you see it has hardly scratched the - months of preparation, you see it has hardly scratched the surface i months of preparation, you see it. has hardly scratched the surface and there _ has hardly scratched the surface and there no— has hardly scratched the surface and there no military— has hardly scratched the surface and there no military path _ has hardly scratched the surface and there no military path for— has hardly scratched the surface and there no military path for ukraine i there no military path for ukraine to succeed — there no military path for ukraine to succeed in _ there no military path for ukraine to succeed in driving _ there no military path for ukraine to succeed in driving russia i there no military path for ukraine to succeed in driving russia out. to succeed in driving russia out when _ to succeed in driving russia out when they— to succeed in driving russia out when they barely _ to succeed in driving russia out when they barely dented - to succeed in driving russia out when they barely dented the i to succeed in driving russia out. when they barely dented the first line of— when they barely dented the first line of defence. _ when they barely dented the first line of defence. the _ when they barely dented the first line of defence. the question- when they barely dented the first line of defence. the question is, i line of defence. the question is, why should _ line of defence. the question is, why should we _ line of defence. the question is, why should we keep _ line of defence. the question is, why should we keep giving i line of defence. the question is, i why should we keep giving money and tanks and _ why should we keep giving money and tanks and ammunition _ why should we keep giving money and tanks and ammunition and _ why should we keep giving money and tanks and ammunition and depleting i tanks and ammunition and depleting our supplies — tanks and ammunition and depleting our supplies when— tanks and ammunition and depleting our supplies when it _ tanks and ammunition and depleting our supplies when it won't _ tanks and ammunition and depleting our supplies when it won't make i tanks and ammunition and depleting our supplies when it won't make a i our supplies when it won't make a difference — our supplies when it won't make a difference on _ our supplies when it won't make a difference on the _ our supplies when it won't make a difference on the battlefield i our supplies when it won't make a difference on the battlefield and i difference on the battlefield and many _ difference on the battlefield and many countries _ difference on the battlefield and many countries are _ difference on the battlefield and many countries are asking - difference on the battlefield and many countries are asking that. l difference on the battlefield and i many countries are asking that. you mentioned the _ many countries are asking that. mentioned the fact that there has not been any break through or significant advance in the counter offensive. presumably we are now in a replay of the late summer and autumn last year, where the ukrainian requests came in they have been talking about anti—aircraft missiles, but also for ammunition and supplies for a new campaign in the spring. is that realistic, do you think european countries will be as forthcoming as last winter? there is a over ammunition _ as forthcoming as last winter? there is a over ammunition and _ is a over ammunition and availability of supplies, how countries are making decisions about those _ countries are making decisions about those resources. you mentioned poland. — those resources. you mentioned poland, the decision there was about new arms _ poland, the decision there was about new arms being for poland and not a question— new arms being for poland and not a question of— new arms being for poland and not a question of not sending or having sent supplies. the stocks are empty and there _ sent supplies. the stocks are empty and there is— sent supplies. the stocks are empty and there is a question of how much ammunition — and there is a question of how much ammunition ukraine has left after this counter offensive. but to,back to something that has been —— but to come _ to something that has been —— but to come back— to something that has been —— but to come back to — to something that has been —— but to come back to something that has been said, come back to something that has been said. there _ come back to something that has been said, there is a debate going on and that is— said, there is a debate going on and that is well— said, there is a debate going on and that is well as good and we live in democracies a and there needs to be a case _ democracies a and there needs to be a case made — democracies a and there needs to be a case made for the war in ukraine. unfortunately that is sending a message to russia that its strategy and thinking that it can outlast the west— and thinking that it can outlast the west and — and thinking that it can outlast the west and kind of keep going in this war, because western support for ukraine _ war, because western support for ukraine will fall apart, is already doing _ ukraine will fall apart, is already doing damage and is already sort of reaffirming that message and undermining western deterrence and ukraine's— undermining western deterrence and ukraine's own battle. does undermining western deterrence and ukraine's own battle.— ukraine's own battle. does that worry you. _ ukraine's own battle. does that worry you, daniel _ ukraine's own battle. does that worry you, daniel davis, - ukraine's own battle. does that worry you, daniel davis, that i worry you, daniel davis, that setting the yard sticks you were talking about for ukraine will give vladimir putinjust the encouragement he needs to think the end is in sight?— end is in sight? well, look, i don't think that he _ end is in sight? well, look, i don't think that he needs _ end is in sight? well, look, i don't think that he needs any _ think that he needs any encouragement. - think that he needs any encouragement. the i think that he needs any- encouragement. the stakes have think that he needs any— encouragement. the stakes have been clear for— encouragement. the stakes have been clear for a _ encouragement. the stakes have been clear for a long — encouragement. the stakes have been clear for a long time. _ encouragement. the stakes have been clear for a long time. i— encouragement. the stakes have been clear for a long time. i have _ encouragement. the stakes have been clear for a long time. i have argued i clear for a long time. i have argued on your— clear for a long time. i have argued on your network— clear for a long time. i have argued on your network many— clear for a long time. i have argued on your network many times, i clear for a long time. i have argued on your network many times, longl on your network many times, long before _ on your network many times, long before this — on your network many times, long before this offensive _ on your network many times, long before this offensive started i on your network many times, long before this offensive started that, | before this offensive started that, were no— before this offensive started that, were no million— before this offensive started that, were no million military— were no million military fundamentals— were no million military fundamentals to - were no million military fundamentals to allow i were no million military- fundamentals to allow ukraine to win, no— fundamentals to allow ukraine to win, no matter— fundamentals to allow ukraine to win, no matter how— fundamentals to allow ukraine to win, no matter how many- fundamentals to allow ukraine to win, no matter how many tanks i fundamentals to allow ukraine to i win, no matter how many tanks we give. _ win, no matter how many tanks we give because— win, no matter how many tanks we give, because the military- give, because the military fundamentals— give, because the military fundamentals do- give, because the military fundamentals do not i give, because the militaryl fundamentals do not weigh give, because the military- fundamentals do not weigh in their favour_ fundamentals do not weigh in their favour and — fundamentals do not weigh in their favour and it — fundamentals do not weigh in their favour and it has— fundamentals do not weigh in their favour and it has actually— favour and it has actually got worse. — favour and it has actually got worse, because _ favour and it has actually got worse, because the - favour and it has actually got worse, because the russianl favour and it has actually got - worse, because the russian side has improved _ worse, because the russian side has improved and — worse, because the russian side has improved and the _ worse, because the russian side has improved and the ukraine _ worse, because the russian side has improved and the ukraine side - worse, because the russian side has improved and the ukraine side has. improved and the ukraine side has gone _ improved and the ukraine side has gone dowm — improved and the ukraine side has gone dowm what— improved and the ukraine side has gone down. what needs _ improved and the ukraine side has gone down. what needs to- improved and the ukraine side hasi gone down. what needs to happen improved and the ukraine side has. gone down. what needs to happen is we need _ gone down. what needs to happen is we need to— gone down. what needs to happen is we need to accept there _ gone down. what needs to happen is we need to accept there is _ gone down. what needs to happen is we need to accept there is some - we need to accept there is some reality— we need to accept there is some reality that — we need to accept there is some reality that we _ we need to accept there is some reality that we cannot _ we need to accept there is some reality that we cannot just - we need to accept there is some reality that we cannot just spin i reality that we cannot just spin awav~ — reality that we cannot just spin awav~ we _ reality that we cannot just spin away. we cannot _ reality that we cannot just spin away. we cannot wish - reality that we cannot just spin away. we cannot wish them i reality that we cannot just spin . away. we cannot wish them away. and the longer— away. we cannot wish them away. and the longer we — away. we cannot wish them away. and the longer we go — away. we cannot wish them away. and the longer we go we _ away. we cannot wish them away. and the longer we go we play— away. we cannot wish them away. and the longer we go we play into- the longer we go we play into putih's— the longer we go we play into putin's hands— the longer we go we play into putin's hands and _ the longer we go we play into putin's hands and makes - the longer we go we play into putin's hands and makes it i the longer we go we play into- putin's hands and makes it worse for people _ putin's hands and makes it worse for people irr— putin's hands and makes it worse for peopte in ukraine _ putin's hands and makes it worse for people in ukraine and _ putin's hands and makes it worse for people in ukraine and rises - putin's hands and makes it worse for people in ukraine and rises their- people in ukraine and rises their casualties — people in ukraine and rises their casualties. that— people in ukraine and rises their casualties. that is— people in ukraine and rises their casualties. that is my— people in ukraine and rises their casualties. that is my biggest i casualties. that is my biggest concern — casualties. that is my biggest concern that— casualties. that is my biggest concern that we _ casualties. that is my biggest concern that we are _ casualties. that is my biggest concern that we are not - casualties. that is my biggesti concern that we are not willing casualties. that is my biggest - concern that we are not willing to acknowledge _ concern that we are not willing to acknowledge basic _ concern that we are not willing to acknowledge basic on _ concern that we are not willing to acknowledge basic on the - concern that we are not willing to acknowledge basic on the ground| acknowledge basic on the ground reality— acknowledge basic on the ground reality and — acknowledge basic on the ground reality and pursue _ acknowledge basic on the ground reality and pursue objectives - acknowledge basic on the groundj reality and pursue objectives that aren't— reality and pursue objectives that aren't going _ reality and pursue objectives that aren't going to _ reality and pursue objectives that aren't going to be _ reality and pursue objectives that aren't going to be achieved. - reality and pursue objectives that. aren't going to be achieved. thank ou. we aren't going to be achieved. thank vom we will _ aren't going to be achieved. thank you. we will undoubtedly - aren't going to be achieved. thank you. we will undoubtedly come . aren't going to be achieved- you. we will undoubtedly come back to the ukraine story again and again. in the race to a greener, cleaner economy, many countries have committed to moving from petrol to electric cars. but that depends on a big increase in electric battery production. and that, in turn, needs large quantities of a key metal — lithium. in the united states, as bbc technology reporter james clayton found, some environmentalists are being caught in a difficult moral quandary. should they support the mining industry as it steps up its work, even if that involves a toll to the environment? drumming and chanting. the shoshone paiute bannock were escaping the the us cavalry attack from this area past sentinel rock here. and the us cavalry chased the people into this area right here where the mine is being dug up at the moment and they were massacred. it is a tragedy and it should be deemed a historical site. that should stop the mine company altogether. unfortunately, the corporations didn't hear that. nevada has only been a state for 160 years. it's been inhabited by the relatives of these people long before. they travel here every year to remember their ancestors, who they say were murdered at this spot. this year though the tone is even more sombre. in the distance, the rumble of heavy machinery. beneath the sage brush here could be one of the biggest lithium deposits in the world. this is thacker pass and in march work began on getting it out of the ground. but this mine is different, mainly because many of its supporters claim to be environmentalists and say that the mine could play at least some role in tackling climate change. global leaders across the world have committed to electric vehicles. now that's why today i'm signing an executive order setting out a target of 50% of all passenger vehicles sold by 2030 will be electric. we are working hard to make the uk a world leader... and yet if both countries want to make electric batteries, they currently have to import lithium. president biden is hoping that this mine can help the us shore up its own supply. so we have the mineral rights that go almost to the oregon border. tim crowley has been a mining advocate in nevada for most of his life. he has been battling environmentalists for years. he is now at lithium america's developing site. are you an environmentalist? of course, i'm an outdoorsman, i live on this planetjust like everybody else. i love it. because i guess there will be people who say someone who has been pro—mining for a long time, calling themselves an environmentalist is incongruous. mining plays an essential role in transitioning into a better, greener environment. the mining industry isn't mining minerals for the sake of mining minerals. they're doing it because demandhas asked for those things. nobody produces any product that there is no demand for it. the demand is high for these things and it's exceptionally high for lithium for very good reason. work on this mine began in march, after years of legal battles. when complete, the lithium will go to general motors to make batteries. but many environmentalists simply don't buy that this mine is going to help save the planet. john heads up the local environmental charity, great basin resource watch. these minerals are supposedly to be used for technology for transition away from fossil fuels. and so they're classified as green. but a mining operation is in fact very damaging to the environment. and we have got to be very careful how we permit these things. and in terms of climate change, you would accept that there is a huge challenge to humanity from that? 0h, enormous, we are in a hotspot. we are in a difficult place. one thing that i'm really concerned about is we are losing an opportunity to do other things to address climate change. we can reduce demand for minerals byjust changing habits, which we can do quickly, to be honest. much of the world's minerals needed for electric cars reside in countries that were formerly colonised and that's led to a new term — green colonialism. so green colonialism is this new push to get these rare earth minerals through resource extraction projects, whether that is pipelines or mining, but you just have to say it is not up to you to decide what to do with this land, this is their land, this— is their ancestral land and they don't want this to happen. so, you know, we have to listen to the people. is there also a feeling that these communities didn't cause climate change, so why are they the ones that are having to sacrifice themselves or their land to try and solve climate change? for sure, yeah, definitely. you know these aren't the people flying all around the world injets. it'sjust hypocrisy, i would say. and it's unfair. not all environmentalists agree though. john used to have a partner in crime at great basis resource watch. glenn miller. but last year he resigned from the board, coming out in support of the mine. it is an issue that the entire - environmental community is split on this thing. miller has resigned from the university of nevada, but has done research supported by a grant from lithium americas. he says that has got nothing to do with his position on the mine. i just think that climate change is so important| and lithium is so important for | electrifying the transportation| industry, and 30% of climate change - is the transportation industry. - environmentalists will say we should l do a drive left — we should not usei computers, we should not use phones, - we should not use anything that - requires us to pull these metals out. | nobody's doing that, nobody's doing that. | nobody will do that. and so the answer is better. transportation systems, more efficient automobiles.

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