at what's on the show. across europe, more than half a trillion dollars was spent in the last year protecting people from the high cost of energy. as the colder months come down the pipeline, and the war in ukraine shows no signs of stopping, is there still an energy crisis for europe and america? how much has changed in the market? and will governments have to spend billions again to protect us from massive bills? i'm going to be discussing all of that with these two — there they are — the man behind the official research which europe uses to figure out the direction of energy bills. and a global market specialist who sits on the council that advises the united states government on energy strategy. plus, it's a year since president biden announced hundreds of billions of dollars for the push to clean energy. just months later, europe followed suit. so i'll talk to the boss of one of europe's biggest clean—energy companies, fortum, about the money flooding into the market, what happens when moscow seizes your assets, and what it all means for business, bills, and the future of the planet. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world, once again, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. you know, vladimir putin's full—scale invasion on ukraine back in february of 2022 sparked a seismic shock in global energy markets. prices spiked immediately, and this was felt nowhere more than in europe. for years, russian oil — and particularly gas — had kept that continent running, and that came to a screeching halt as a flotilla of sanctions all descended on russia from europe, the uk, and north america — targeting notjust the supply of oil and gas, but also how russia took payment, and even the insurance on its boats of fuel that were still being shipped to countries like, well, like india and china — countries which have maintained their ties with moscow and have taken advantage of the cheaper energy they're now receiving. then, a few months later, as autumn approached in europe, every single government, including here in the uk, announced measures to help their people deal with the bigger energy bills that were due to hit the doormats all across the continent. the world watched as europe raced to fill its storage capacity for winter. mysterious holes appeared in key pipelines. energy diplomacy was the name of the game. when we spoke to my first guest last year, things had become so challenging for florian bockermann�*s business — a craft beer brewery in munster, germany — that he feared he may have to let people go, or even close the whole thing down. a year on, we wanted to know how things had gone. so, one year ago, the situation was very bad. so, we got bills coming in, all prices increased, energy prices, the malt prices, bottling prices — everything increased. so we really were worrying about our future. we are a small company, so we really were afraid maybe to close the company, or to lay off people. and that was a really bad feeling because, i mean, your employees, which really grow your company with you, they're your friends, you work with them very closely. they have families, they have children. and if you're really in such an unsecure situation to really not know if they can stay or not, it is very bad. and so for me, last year was a really, really bad time. and, yeah, we are really happy what was happening now, or what is happening now, so we could increase our sales numbers. despite the increasing prices, we have done a lot to be more efficient. still, we have high production prices. the energy costs are high, everything is high. but with these increased prices and with the feeling that there's more stability now — the politics which gave us more stable feeling, what is going on in the future, i'm not really afraid that i have to close my company or lay off people. florian bockermann catching us up on just how one small brewery in germany's heartland managed to get through the energy shock. so, what do european households face this winter? well, to find out, i sat down with the big boss of vaasaett. it monitors the cost of energy bills for every european country, including here in the uk. and their numbers are trusted as the official ones for the industry, and are used when countries put together their energy policy. philip lewis, a real pleasure having you on the show. and philip, let me start with this, because i'm just wondering, how extraordinary was the situation that we were looking at last year for european households? absolutely unprecedented. if you look at the amount of price rises, we saw countries — typically across europe — on average increasing by, or doubling, or in some cases, tripling their prices for energy. that compares, if you put it into context with historical levels, that's about as much of an increase as we saw in total for those countries over the past two decades. and i'm wondering, philip, how has the strategy for europe changed? because when i was looking at the research, it beggars belief that there really wasn't a strategy in place before all of this, right? well, actually, a lot of the strategy was very nationally focused. it was focused on your own country. it really didn't look at this type of pan—european major problem that was sustained for a large period of time. so, it was far too narrow—focused and not... they didn'tjoin up the dots, in a sense. have theyjoined up the dots? is there a pan—european strategy in place now? yes, there is much more of a pan—european understanding of the problem. there's far more rules in place, orfar more guidelines in place and strategies in place as to how they would handle the problem if it happens again. of course, that hasn't been tested in practice. what remains to be seen is how countries will respond and support others, the solidarity that will be provided in the event that there really are maybe many countries, several countries who are in need of support from the broader system. and that's the challenge that we need to test out. and, of course, while i've got you, i've got to ask you the question — what is your forecast, the prediction for energy bills this winter? our prediction for the future would be that the prices will stabilise where they are now, which are heavily—elevated prices. they could go down, but we're predicting that they probably are more likely to increase than decrease in the short—to—medium, or longer term especially. and does that vary across the region, if you will? it does. it does vary a lot, with the more expensive countries being, for example, the netherlands, great britain, ireland, italy, some of the baltic countries, as well. at the lower end... meaning it'll be more expensive — sorry, is that what you're saying? yes, yes, yes. why more expensive in those countries? because those countries have... in a way, they have more free pricing, despite the fact that they have measures in place. but they generally have more free pricing in those markets. they're more, sort of, exposed to wholesale prices, in many cases. philip, do you think european countries have done enough to date to keep the lights on this winter? we don't know for sure. i mean, i think that if we... the test will be winter? the test will be winter, and the weather. the assumption always is that we won't get extreme weather. if there was extreme weather, and it was sustained over a long period of time, that could actually lead to some problems, as the storage levels might not be able to cope with that — the system might not be able to cope with that. so i think that, whether they've done enough will only be known probably in about within a year or two's time, but not really until we actually have some of that extreme weather to test it out in practice. and one of the other problems, of course, that we have to remember is that the prices are lower than they were a year ago. they're still high, very high, but they're a lot lower than they were a year ago. and those high prices that we had actually led to lower demand. there was a lot of demand that was reduced by people, by industry because of those high prices. if we lower the prices, even though they're still high, we will have more demand and more to support. all right. it's like a dog chasing its tail. it is, it is. we've turned off the lights or we've had less heating on because of the prices — those prices come down, we're like, "leave the light on, turn the heat up." exactly. i mean, in a sense, we've been having people say for decades that energy is too cheap — not consumers, consumers are not saying that — but generally speaking, energy has been too cheap for people to really care about the cost of energy on a national basis, in most cases. when the price was very high, industry was turning off, households were turning off — not always in a good way, but that actually did lead to less pressure on the system. what about energy bills here in the uk? because as a consumer, i mean, they're awfully high, yes? well, the measures that have been put in place by the regulator, the price cap have, of course, brought the prices down from what they probably would have been otherwise, quite substantially so. but the prices are still, in a european context, they're still very high. britain still has some of the highest energy bills across europe. so, why here in the uk? because the uk is more exposed to those international prices, to some extent, it also has... just the general markets, the energy markets? yes, and there are also some other markets where the protection measures are even stronger, of course, the support that is being given is even larger. and so, therefore... but it's notjust britain, it's also ireland, it's also the netherlands, it's this region within europe that actually has relatively high prices at the moment. and philip, let me end on this — it might be a toughie here — but you and i are sitting here right now in 2023, talking about this coming winter in the northern hemisphere. if we were sitting here in 2024, how different would that situation be, do you think? i think the prices will be higher, a little bit higher than they are now — not as high as they were during the peak that we saw. not necessarily, of course, it will depend on those factors i mentioned. it could be a lot higher if the weather were to become extreme. i think the governments will be more prepared. i think storage systems, alternatives, and so on will be in a much better shape. but i think that we will still be at risk. i think we'll still be at risk from extreme situations that may transpire — whether that's in the supply of lng, whether that's in the other pipeline gas supply that we get, or maybe in the weather, or demand—related factors. phillip lewis, the big boss of vaasaett, a real pleasure. thanks very much for your time. thank you. another guest we spoke to a year ago said europe better pray for a mild winter, or it could face blackouts. she's the managing director and head of global commodities at rbc capital markets. she also sits on the united states national petroleum council, which advises the american government on its oil and gas strategy. helima croft, a real pleasure having you back on the show. and helima, let me start with this, the big picture. are europe and north america in a better or worse position than last year. i mean, last year, we were worried about a winter of discontent. i mean, remember — we were deeply concerned about russia weaponizing energy. we were concerned that europe would have to choose between heating and eating. and a funny thing happened — europe got through winter well. the weather really helped. and so, europe was able to build storage, a number of energy—efficiency measures were put in place across europe, but europe got through winter. so what everybody feared about vladimir putin's energy weapon turned out not to have been nearly as potent as the initial concerns. so, are they out of the woods completely? no, they're not completely out of the woods now. again, they're in a better situation because they've been able to build storage. also, there was new supplies being brought in from countries like the united states, with lng, qatar re—routed cargoes. again, the weather really helped out. but if it's an unseasonably cold winter, if we have other supply disruptions, we're not out of the woods. and so, again, much better outcome than when we spoke this time last year, but not a cause for complacency either. but we've seen, for example, in the last few weeks, the threat of labour strikes in australia's natural gas industry — that spiked prices on the market. there's a whole world of factors out there, aren't there? i mean, i'mjust wondering, helima, what are the ones you're watching? again, that's such a great point about the labour strikes in australia, because you look at who are the big suppliers and issues about concentration risk. so, we don't think of australia as a geopolitical risk, but again, you highlight the labour issue. so again, you always have to be concerned. when you are a net importer, you always have to become concerned about security of supply. and i think that is something that has moved to the forefront of policymaker concerns. the big oil and gas producers in the middle east and the gulf, they're partners with russia in what's called 0pec+, the cartel — and that's where they make the joint decisions on output and prices. helima, what's 0pec up to right now, in terms of supply? this is such a great question about the 0pec—russia relationship because, in 2016, november, you did have a declaration of cooperation where russia joined 0pec. a number of other producers joined 0pec in doing a significant production cut to shore up prices. remember, prices had collapsed in 2015. and so, this russia union with 0pec — ijoked it was a shotgun marriage started by shell in the united, but the relationship did get legs. started by shell in the united states, but the relationship did get legs. and the question was, is it built to last? and for now, there are no indications that russia will be leaving 0pec+, it will be vacating its position as co—chair of this super producer group. but i think that it's overstated, particularly in the saudi—russia relationship, that they are partnering on a whole range of issues. i think it's a very tactical relationship when it comes to oil. the saudis have said, "look, we have condemned russian action "in ukraine multiple times in the un security council." the saudis just hosted its major peace negotiations in saudi arabia, where you had the us national security adviser there, you had a whole host of china—sent representatives there. so from the standpoint of the saudis, they're saying, "look, we're working with russia on the oil market because we need "to, but that doesn't mean that we are signing up "for everything when it comes to russian foreign policy, "military strategy." let's talk about china — how's china playing out in all of this? because we know their economy is having quite a few problems, and i'm wondering if that'll take a significant slice out of demand, then help keep prices lower? this is another great question, because there's a broader concern about the chinese economy, property sector, a whole host of broader macro concerns. and that is keeping a lid on oil prices, particularly because you do have this significant 0pec cut in the market. but what is interesting, when you dive into the numbers on oil imports — if you look at oil imports forjune, china's oil imports, they were at multi—year highs. they're a bit softer injuly, but if you look at what we're seeing now in terms of chinese oil import data, it is strong. helima, i want to ask you about the black sea, that all—important shipping route, because we know recently russia withdrew from the black sea grain agreement. but this area can also have an impact on our energy prices. russia did, as you mentioned, pull out of the black sea grain deal — it was a un—brokered agreement that allowed ukrainian grain to make it to global markets. they pulled out on 17 july, and that's a big food security story. but the energy angle came to play on 4—5 august when you had ukrainian officials come out and say, "it's immoral to carry russian oil and gas," and essentially they would be targeting russian energy supplies in the black sea. and we had two tankers attacked. and that raised questions about the security of black sea energy exports. and i think the biden administration was very concerned about that — and several days later, you had the announcement of essentially a safe commodity corridor in the black sea, whereby which ukraine agreed that they would only target military vessels and not commercial vessels. but it certainly remains an important story to watch the security of the black sea. you do have the russians targeting ukrainian infrastructure. and so, the question is, even if the ukrainians are saying, "we're going to forego attacking commercial vessels," do you potentially have commercial vessels caught up in this sort of broader conflict that's playing out in this really important region for commodities? well, on that point, helima croft, always a pleasure having you on the show, and we'd love to talk to you again soon. thank you for having me. ok, so, so far in the program, we've been looking at how europe has dealt with the energy shock following russia's invasion of ukraine, and what that means for bills and businesses with winter coming down the pipeline. well, one company right at the heart of the issue is fortum. it's one of the biggest power suppliers across the nordics, and it operates on the doorstep of both russia and western europe — and, as so happens, its energy is green. markus rauramo, a real pleasure having you on the show. and markus, let's start with this, because before the war, you had operations in russia that were valued at around $2 billion — then russia invaded ukraine. markus, what happened to your operations in russia after that invasion? immediately when russia started its attack, war in ukraine, we took the decision that we will not finance our russian operations any more, we will not take any new investment decisions. quite soon after that, we came to the conclusion that we have no other alternative than to exit russia. so we started a divestment process — which is still going on. a couple of months back, actually, russia took over administrative control of our operations in russia, changed the ceo. and today, we have no access to information from the company, and we have no access to the cash flows. we don't get loan repayments from russia. and what happened after that is that we have written down, actually, our assets values in russia down to zero, and we have de—consolidated the business. so, from our point of view, that chapter is now behind us, and what we are doing today is we have started the processes under international investment protection treaties to claim our money back, and we continue the sales efforts as we still are the legal title holder to these assets. but we have no access to information or cash. and markus, we're talking about $2 billion — can you ever get that money back? we actually invested even more than that over time. but the net that we have invested was $2 billion. so typically, these international investment protection treaty cases, they take a long time. so they may take many years in various courts. but we do expect that, at some point in time, we actually do get compensated — but that can be far out in the future. in the last year, markus, we've seen hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars promised to the industry by governments in europe and north america for the energy transition. i'm wondering how that's going. there are certainly areas where subsidies may be needed for this transition to happen. in our core areas, in the nordics, the market is already well—supplied with reliable and very cost—competitive hydropower and nuclear power. so the basis for the transition is good. but markus, is it going fast enough? the renewables growth is actually happening at quite the fast pace. yes, globally, further decisiveness is needed by the society, so we continuously, year after year, we need to push hard and make sure that the regulation and the market structures are in a place that will actually enable this transition to happen. of course, the criticism of renewable energy is that it's expensive and difficult to store, unlike gas or coal. and those critics, markus, they have a point, i'm just wondering, how do you fix that? in many places, actually, renewables — if you look atjust the cost of megawatt hour produced, actually it's very competitive. that's the case in the nordics, for wind especially. it is the case in sunny areas for solar. so you get low—cost megawatt hours. but the problem is the intermittency, and the profile. so how do you deal with that issue? you need the flexibility, you need a system that will bring in also baseload into the system. then, if we go further into, for example, offshore wind, yes, it is more expensive, but it is not prohibitively expensive. but again, the question is that we can'tjust have the intermittent energy. we need the baseload and the flexibility also. also on this show, markus, because we've been looking at the energy cost for businesses and households, especially in europe this winter. what's your take, will those bills be lower? last year was a very turbulent one. so, after the attack of russia to ukraine and the disruptions in the gas supplies, energy prices spiked up, the market was in huge turbulence. now, it's much calmer, so the forward prices are on completely different lower levels than they were last year. so, if nothing else happens and today's market prices prevail, then energy costs will be lower. but i would say that the markets are very fragile, so we can see that with a little bit of news from somewhere in the world for lng supplies or the likes, the market will react very quickly, prices can jump very quickly up. and we have seen that recently in the nordics, as well. a little bit of disruption in transmission—line availability, nuclear availability, and so on — prices canjump up massively, from close to zero up to several hundred euros per megawatt hour. and markus, let me end on this — has europe done enough to keep the lights on this winter? europe has certainly done a lot. so, ithink, looking back, i'm a little bit positively surprised that europe was able to do as much as it did then to convert from partly being reliant on supplies from the east, to actually imported lng. and if you look at the gas storage levels in europe now, actually, they are already over 90%. so, from the gas supply point of view, things look quite robust for this coming winter. but again, even with these gas storage levels, you can see that a little bit of bad news from any direction immediately impacts the closer gas prices. well, on that point, markus rauramo, the big boss of fortum, really appreciate your time, markus. thanks forjoining me, and i'll check in with you soon. thank you. well, that's it for this week's show! i hope you enjoyed it. don't forget, you can keep up with the latest on our global economy on the bbc website or smartphone app. of course, you can also follow me on x — x me, i'll x you back! you can get me at @bbcaaron. thanks for watching, i'll see you soon. bye— bye. hello there. part two of the weekend is looking pretty similar to how it was yesterday — sunshine and showers, but i don't think the showers will be quite as heavy, or certainly not quite as widespread as what we had yesterday. but again, eastern parts of the uk will see some of the heaviest of the thunderstorms and showers today, whereas further west we've got this weather front bringing light and patchy rain to northern ireland in between some good spells of sunshine. so, for the rest of the day, it will stay rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain across northern ireland, skies brightening up from the west later. western scotland, western parts of britain seeing some sunshine. most of the heavy showers will be affecting eastern scotland and eastern parts of england, again, some torrential downpours in a few places. and top temperatures 2i—22 celsius here, high teens further north and west. so for the reading and leeds festival today, i think the better chance of staying dry will be across reading. for the leeds festival, i think you could pick up a few showers, which could be on the heavy side. same too for notting hill carnival. i think today is a greater risk of seeing showers, and what we'll see tomorrow, i think it could stay largely dry with good sunny spells. now, as we move through this evening, overnight, the showers mostly fade away. that weather front, a weakening feature, spreads across central and eastern england. just a band of patchy cloud on it. and it will be quite a cool night to come again, particularly out of town under those clear skies, single digits likely for many of us now for monday. and of course, monday is a bank holiday for most of us, it's looking like being a fairly good day, i think, quite a bit of sunshine around. into the afternoon, the shower clouds may bubble up. you could see the odd light shower here and there, but most places should stay dry. and top temperatures, 21 celsius. it's the high teens further north and winds will be light, as well. as we move out on monday into tuesday, things change again. the low pressure starts to push into the north of the uk. that'll to bring stronger winds, blustery showers certainly to scotland. some of these showers could be quite heavy. elsewhere, some good sunny spells, but this weather front will be spreading across england and wales, bringing a band of showers, but it will become confined to southern and eastern areas by the end of the day with quite a bit of sunshine, i think, developing behind it. top temperatures around 22 celsius. cooler than that, though, further north where it will be quite blustery. wednesday, at this stage, not too bad thanks to a ridge of high pressure, but then it turns more unsettled for thursday and friday. could be quite wet in places particularly across england and wales. live from london, this is bbc news. russian investigators say genetic testing confirms wagner leader yevgeny prigozhin was killed in a plane crash on wednesday. killed in a mid—air crash — we hear how one of ukraine's most celebrated fighter pilots played a key role in training fi6 fighters. zimbabwe's election results have been declared, yet both candidates are claiming victory. we have won this election, we are in the lead. we have been surprised why mr mnangagwa has been declared, you know, the leader, because he's not! the metropolitan police is investigating a suspected data hack, involving the details of potentially thousands of officers. hello, i'm tanya beckett. authorities in russia have confirmed that the head of the wagner paramilitary group, yevgenny prigozhin, was killed in a plane that crashed north west of moscow on wednesday. they say that the identities of the bodies recovered correspond with the flight�*s passenger list, which named mr prigozhin.

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