hello and welcome to the programme. the man who led a mutiny against president putin — and played a key role with his wagner mercenaries in the war in ukraine — yevgeny prigozhin — appears to be dead, in a plane crash in russia. this image has been confirmed by bbc verify as being from the crash scene near moscow. it's been confirmed that yevgeny prigozhin was on board the private jet. there's much we still don't know about this story. the uk government says it is monitoring the situation. in the us, president biden has said, "there's not much that happens in russia that putin's not behind". our russia editor steve rosenberg has this report. caught on camera, the final seconds of a private jet. on board, reportedly, the head of a private mercenary group, yevgeny prigozhin. "look over there by the farm, it is burning," the eyewitness can be heard saying. in the distance, a giant cloud of smoke. the plane had crashed north of moscow. yevgeny prigozhin�*s right hand man, the wagner commander, was also thought to have been on board. later, a wagner—linked telegram channel confirmed that yevgeny prigozhin had been killed. it claimed it was the result of the actions of traitors of russia. it is two months to the day since the wagner chief launched what he called his march ofjustice, his mutiny, the insurrection by wagner forces who had been fighting on the kremlin�*s side in ukraine. they rolled unopposed into the city of rostov. their demands, the removal of russia's senior military leadership, who they blamed for setbacks on the battlefield. there were these extraordinary scenes as the paramilitary chief admonished russian generals. and then they marched on in the direction of moscow in a direct challenge to the authority of president putin. the kremlin leader called it treachery. russia he said had been stabbed in the back, the mutineers would be punished. but by evening a deal had been done to end the insurrection. even though russian servicemen had been killed, there would be no charges against yevgeny prigozhin and his wagner troops. they would have to leave russia but the agreement left the kremlin looking weak. this was vladimir putin today, commemorating the soviet victory in a famous world war ii battle. there has been no comment yet from the president on the plane crash. on the streets of moscow tonight there was a mixed reaction. "i couldn't care less", he says. "this was to be expected," says another. "some of the things prigozhin did or didn't do needed to be punished, he had lots of enemies." so, little surprise, but much speculation, about why the jet crashed, who had targeted the plane and its controversial passenger. was this an act of revenge against the man who had dared to humiliate those in power in russia? steve rosenberg, bbc news. so how did yevgeny prigozhin rise to such influence in russia — and to lead a mercenary group with a presence in many countries? our analysis editor ros atkins has more on his story. in 1981, he was sent to prison for robbery and theft. and when released in 1990, he became a hot dog salesman in st petersburg. but by 1997 he was running a top restaurant and winning lucrative catering contracts. those brought connections to the top. prigozhin even served food to world leaders. and to putin himself. and prigozhin�*s role was becoming about much more than food. in 2014 russia annexed crimea and launched an insurgency in eastern ukraine. prigozhin was involved. of that time, he's said "a group of patriots was born", which later acquired the name wagner battalion. and soon the wagner group reached far beyond ukraine. the fbi accused prigozhin of interfering in the 2016 us election. in syria, wagner fighters supported pro—government forces. more recently there are multiple reports of wagner's military and commercial activity in africa. with the eu accusing the group of committing... "torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings". and then came the war. when putin wanted to give his invasion of ukraine impetus, prigozhin and his fighters were called in. but as wagner's death toll grew, so did prigozhin�*s fury. expressed first in video rants. and then in a short—lived mutiny. in the aftermath, putin condemned the "the mutineers and traitors". but for prigozhin, charges were dropped, no arrest followed. and we asked why wasn't putin punishing prigozhin? perhaps he was biding his time. i'm joined now by ian bremmer, founder and president of the political risk consultants, eurasia group. thank you forjoining us. i want to get right to the question of your reaction. he had set up to that mutiny attempt that yevgeny prigozhin was a dead man walking. i guess you're not terribly surprised by hearing this. tell us a little bit about the kremlin and how they handle people who are considered their enemies. we know a lot of people that have been incarcerated and assassinated for taking for more minor steps against the kremlin and putin personally, so the fact that yevgeny prigozhin was allowed to walk away free after being called a traitor directly on to state airwaves by president putin, a traitor to the russian nation, it is pretty clear at the time that the deal cut with putin was not worth the paper it was printed on. and that he wasn't going to be allowed to work for long because one very important point here is none of this in the world's democracies had ever seen how putin would behave, the master strategist, the great chess player, how he would behave when he was truly pushed against a wall. that is what happened when yevgeny prigozhin�*s forces went to rostov and continued to motor towards moscow, and putin did not act with sudden immediate escalation and take these guys out because he was in a tough position at that point, he was extremely calculated, took his time and waited until he could get yevgeny prigozhin in a much weaker position. he allowed him to work for about two months and now he is dead. i think that sends a very chilling message to anyone that would go after him in russia, but it sends frankly a more stabilising message to those in nato you have to think about how this conflict in ukraine might eventually wind down at enter. . ., , enter. vladimir putin really relies on — enter. vladimir putin really relies on the _ enter. vladimir putin really relies on the wagner - enter. vladimir putin really relies on the wagner group enter. vladimir putin really i relies on the wagner group to fight his wars, particularly when it comes to ukraine, so what can we expect next, particularly in this conflict in ukraine?— particularly in this conflict inukraine? . , ., in ukraine? that is really not true in terms _ in ukraine? that is really not true in terms of _ in ukraine? that is really not true in terms of ukraine. - in ukraine? that is really notj true in terms of ukraine. the wagner group played a significant role in one particular battle and they were getting really torn up and they work building many of their troops out. by the time the second ukraine counteroffensive started, the wagner forces really weren't fighting on the ground in ukraine but your point is relevant because it is when wagner turned against putin that the counteroffensive by ukraine which many believed it was going to be quite successful was just about to begin. the idea that putin would go up to wagner and have to pull other troops out, regular forces out from ukraine in their defensive positions would need to be fighting an insurrection at home at the same time that he could be really on the back foot in ukraine, exactly the time you wouldn't want to do that. that is no longer something putin has to worry about. there is the question of how wagner is going to behave on the ground in africa. there they are very significant and putin has allowed the wagner leadership to be needing with african leaders over the last several weeks. now that he has been killed, likely directly by the kremlin, there will be a number of leaders in africa that are wondering how much they can trust the kremlin going forward so i think what will happen in those countries, need air for example, mali, libya, there was a very interesting questions but in russia and ukraine i don't think very much is changing. don't think very much is changing-— don't think very much is chanauin. ., , , changing. fascinating stuff. alwa s a changing. fascinating stuff. always a pleasure - changing. fascinating stuff. always a pleasure having i changing. fascinating stuff. | always a pleasure having you changing. fascinating stuff. - always a pleasure having you on our programme. to the us — where allies and former aides of donald trump have surrendered in georgia on charges connected with attempts to overturn the 2020 us election results in the state. chief among them was rudy giuliani — the former mayor of new york who served as trump's personal lawyer. he's been accused of 13 crimes, including racketeering. donald trump himself is due to surrender in georgia on thursday. all this sets the backdrop for the first republican primary debate — taking place in just a few hours in the city of milwaukee. our north america editor sarah smith reports. it looks like a set from little house on the prairie. but this single room school house in wisconsin is actually where the republican party was born. while celebrating its history, the party also has to choose its future. does it include donald trump? or is there room for a new face? he made the majority of people very, very happy with what he was doing for our country. are you disappointed trump is not taking part? yes, i am in a way, but again, also not. because if he's on it's all going to be about him. i think he's a coward, - i think he should show up and defend himself in front of a live audience. - now he's already saying he can't do the debates because of covid. donald trump considered debates essential when he was running againstjoe biden three years ago. and maybe he'll show up for an hour and a half at a debate, who the hell knows? i don't know. welcome to the dan o'donnell show. no trump, no problem. on talk radio in milwaukee, dan o'donnell is conducting a debate on donald trump's no—show. but do you know what trump is going to be doing instead of the debate? he's going to court. a self—confessed trumper, he understands the former president's reasoning. why should he have to bother with small little things like debating candidates who are at 5% against him? so it looks arrogant? a little bit. trump has literally said, you know what my policies are, why should i have to explain them to you? that does sound kind of arrogant when it's put that way, doesn't it? without even turning up here in milwaukee, donald trump will still end up dominating the proceedings. all the other candidates will inevitably be asked about him and his legal problems, will any of them dare to criticise him for anything? including his decision to skip this debate. you guys know he's not coming, don't you? of course. but we still love trump. trump's court appearance will boost his appeal, with polls suggesting he has more support than all his rivals put together. in second place, florida governor ron desantis, whose flailing campaign means he is nowhere near catching up with trump. so, donald, you need to decide. are you a chicken? his formerfriend, now foe, chris christie # he opens his mouth i but the words won't come out...# while this cringeworthy rap has not stopped vivek ramaswamy, a biotech millionaire, from enjoying a surprising surge in the polls. donald trump, with typical bravado, will then upstage them all tomorrow when he arrives in georgia and surrenders himself to be booked at fulton county jail. i asked our correspondent in milwaukee — caitriona perry — whether the arrests had had any impact on the mood there. absolutely not. the mood here is incredibly jubilant and joyful. this is the kick—off event for the republican party officially, looking ahead to the primary in iowa early next year. behind you might be able to hear there is a rock band playing, food trucks and grills, everyone is dressed up in their best finery, so plenty of donald trump supporters here as well. posters and t—shirts. they are all aware that he is not here but that isn't diminishing their potential enjoyment of this debate at all. this is a landmark event for the republican party, a chance for a conservative candidate to set out what their vision is for america, what they want to see in the presidential election next year. donald trump is not going to be there so how do we expect the candidates to respond to his absence on that stage? i think he is possibly borrowing a little from oscar wilde who said the only thing worse than being talked about was not being talked about. donald trump is ensuring the candidates will talk about him, hoping for some sort of circular debate with them setting out how different they are to him, ones who support and the ones who don't potentially attacking him, while at the same time he has an interview he has already taped with the former fox news host tucker carlson that will drop on x, formerly known as twitter, at the same time. donald trump is hoping to control all narratives but the other eight candidates here, that is not their viewpoint, speaking to some of them as they will deal with the frontrunner in the race in terms of the former president and then they want to move on to discussing their policies and setting out their stall and preserve them whose national name recognition is very low, pulling very low, if this is their time to shine this is a time to essentially get a viral moment to get something that will set them apart from the others in the field, that will guarantee they will run on the breakfast show here tomorrow morning and that they will stay in the race for the next debate. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. bbc news bringing you different stories from across the uk. i can't sit still for five minutes and in some ways that's probably hurt me over the years. i was feeling breathless. i kept on getting arm pains and i had a few angina attacks. i ended up going to the royal perth hospital and they came back and said, "we really can't do much with your stents, you're really going to have to go on the list for a bypass." two or three days late, the consultant phoned me and said, "do you want to try this new procedure that lasers them open?" what they do, they put a pipe up there with a laser. obviously a minute laser that goes in through your artery and it lasers the plaque and it goes to nothing. i thank them so much. they've given me my life back. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. japan will start releasing treated radioactive water from the fukushima nuclear plant into the pacific ocean later. that's despite opposition from its neighbours. the decision comes after the un's nuclear watchdog approved the plan. our reporter nicky schiller has more. water that will be released into the ocean has been stored in these, 1000 steel tanks, since the disaster in march 2011. indeed, there is 1.34 million tonnes of water stored in them. that is the equivalent of around 500 olympic—sized swimming pools. now, japan says a maximum of 500,000 litres will be released each day. however, it will be a lot less than that at the start of the process. now, the plant operator has been filtering the water. the reason for that is to remove more than 60 radioactive substances. however, two will remain, tritium and carbon 1a, they are the radioactive forms of hydrogen and carbon and are hard to separate from water. japan, though, says all the levels meet the regulations needed internationally. indeed, the un nuclear watchdog approved the plan it said would have a negligible radiological impact on people and the environment. indeed, experts say once the water hits the ocean, it will be massively diluted. however, there have been fears, particularly around marine life and seafood. this is a protest this week in south korea. it has banned fish imports from around fukushima. it is china, though, that is leading the charge, calling the plan unjust, unreasonable and unnecessary. indeed, it accused tokyo of using the ocean like a private sewer. hong kong has also put some limits on fish imports from japan. japanese fishermen are also worried about what the discharge of water will mean for their livelihoods. but the japanese government says it is needed as part of the plan to decommission the fukushima nuclear plant. tilman ruff is associate professor, at the melbourne school of global health. he says it's hard to say how damaging the water will be for the environment. don't really have evidence for that. that's robust. the independent expert panel that was appointed by the pacific islands forum, which engaged very closely with the iaea, with the japanese government, and with tepco, the the operator of the plant, were really not convinced, reviewing all the evidence available, that we knew either what was in the tanks or that the process that's planned would work as intended. what are some of the long term effects of consuming fish and other seafood that is been in this waste water or will be in this waste water? because this is not normal cooling water, it's been in contact with molten nuclear fuel. it contains a vast variety of of radionuclides. those behave in different ways in biological systems, but they accumulate up the food chain in general. and every additional exposure to radiation with no lower limit below which there are no effects, does add to the risk of long term chronic disease, cancer and heart attacks and strokes, developmental abnormalities. so this is an avoidable additional burden to people around the pacific. and of course, once the water is released into the ocean, there's no taking it back or containing it in any way, it will then spread with the currents. i mean, the reason why the japanese government is trying to do, figure out what to do with this waste water is because they want to take this plant offline. what are the other safe options to dispose of the water? i think that makes the plan really unnecessary in the sense that there are good alternatives that have been proposed by a variety of expert groups inside and outside japan, suggesting long term storage in purpose, built seismically safe tanks for several decades, during which much of the radioactivity would decay away and the water would then be much easier to deal with. one other option that's been seriously proposed is that the treated water be used solidified in water or used in concrete for structural applications where most of the radioactivity will be contained and it will have little contact with the environment and certainly won't cause a transboundary and tra nsgenerational pollution issue. those alternatives haven't been seriously investigated. let's return to our top story — the wagner boss yevgeny prygozhin — who led a failed mutiny against vladimir putin — is presumed dead, after being aboard a plane which crashed near moscow. keir giles, is from the russia and eurasia programme at the foreign affairs think tank chatham house. first reaction was to wonder whether this was in fact yevgeny prigozhin that was on the aircraft. certainly, the russian aviation authorities said he was listed as a passenger, but there's always room for doubt in the first official story that you get about anything from russia. we know that he had other individuals who had assumed his name to try and obfuscate his travels. so the evidence is steadily growing that yes, it does appear genuinely to have been yevgeny prigozhin on board along with, as you just heard from steve rosenberg, one of the other key leaders of the wagner group, dmitri oetken. but until there is that 100% cast iron certainty that he's out of the picture, we really shouldn't rule anything out, beyond that of course, it is not a surprise, as steve rosenberg also alluded to and ros atkins, it was more of a surprise that he survived as long as he did, because he set a very dangerous precedent by challenging the power in moscow and actually then remaining alive to tell the tale and apparently being pardoned. sooner or later, president putin had to move against him in order to prevent other people getting similar ideas. if this crash is no accident, it is sending a message to other nationalists in russia who have been critical of the russian leadership. what could we see next? well, certainly those other people that might have been inclined to be critical or even worse to take action against the russian leadership will be reassessing their risk calculus now from having seen prigozhin actually survive an attempt to do so. so, yes, it will have a chilling effect on any kind of dissent within russia itself, but it also have effects beyond russia as well, because wagner has been part and a key part of this campaign of spreading russia's global influence, including in a belt of coups across central africa. now, rather than a group is actually left leaderless, then it remains to be seen who would actually be taking the initiative in either holding on to power there or continuing to spread russia's power further. and it also leaves a band of trained, angry, armed people within russia itself that russia is going to have to deal with because those wagner fighters, those actual experienced servicemen that were with the wagner group and now are going to be even more incensed at the way they have been treated by the russian state. just quickly before we go, how will this impact russia's war with with ukraine? it's unlikely to have any direct, immediate impact because, of course, wagner had left the front line before they actually staged this march on moscow. and since then, they really haven't played a role. the russian army has tried to absorb some of them. others have been packed off to belarus unsuccessfully. but that means that russia still has this challenge to deal with. if it does not neutralise those individuals fairly soon, then a discontented element within russia itself is going to cause cause further problems for the kremlin. that's all for now — stay with bbc news. hello. well, it has been quite warm in the last few days, but nothing compared to what's been happening south of the english channel in france and spain. temperatures recently hit 44 celsius. and for france, a record for august. this is the anomaly map, so the orange colours show temperatures higher than average, the blue colours lower than average. but watch what happens when thatjet stream takes a dip. this trough develops and pushes the heat further towards the east of europe, and the temperatures tend to ease somewhat anyway. and we have cooler weather on the way over the next few days for our neck of the woods. in fact, right now, you can see the jet streams right over us, clouds circling, an area of low pressure bringing some showers. there could be some thunderstorms early in the morning. but with low pressure in charge and these northerly winds riding around this western flank of the low, the temperatures are set to drop by a few degrees by the time we get to friday and certainly the weekend. so the outlook is things turning a little bit cooler, but there'll be some sunshine around with occasional showers. here's the forecast then for early thursday, some rain there across northern and eastern scotland, showers elsewhere and also eyes towards the south, thunderstorms could be breaking out early in the morning as well. but it's a very mild start to the day, 12 celsius in glasgow, possibly even 17 celsius on the south coast. now on these thunderstorms, really vicious storms for a time, potentially across the channel islands, crossing the channel, heading roughly to the isle of wight, and then affecting the east, the south east that is, of england. we do think that they will probably veer off towards the east—northeast, so missing most of the south east of england. and i think anyway, for many of us through the course of thursday, it is going to be a mixture of sunny spells and showers. so most of us will not get the storms on thursday. temperatures, 17 celsius in glasgow, about 18 celsius in liverpool. still holding onto some of that warmth there in the southeast, 2a celsius. and then on friday, if you look at the wind arrows, here's the clue, the air�*s coming in from the north. sunny spells and showers, those temperatures around 16—17 celsius in scotland. in the south, 19—21 celsius, and i think we'll lose some of that humidity, so it won't feel quite as warm. and here is the outlook through the weekend and into next week — cooler. bye— bye. central bankers meet injackson hole wyoming in the united states with a focus on what the future will hold for the interest rate policy. business districts are empty. one region has seen people return to the office. hello, welcome to asia business report. i'm monica miller. officials from central banks around the world are gathering at an annual three day conference in wyoming. the focus will be on what federal chairman says when he delivers his speech on friday. investors will be looking for signs that the us central bank is nearing the us central bank is nearing the end of its push to raise interest rates which are at the highest level in 16 years by making borrowing more expensive.

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