the other two cases, which are unrelated, will be going to trial right in the middle of the us republican primary season — that's where voters in various states, republican voters will be going to the polls to narrow down the field of hopeful republican candidates for president. and right in the middle of those elections, mr trump is due in new york to stand trial in connection to payments is alleged to have made to former adult film star stormy daniels. injust have made to former adult film star stormy daniels. in just a have made to former adult film star stormy daniels. injust a couple months later, mr trump is due in court in florida over the classified documents case — these are allegations and charges that the former president unlawfully held onto classified documents when he left the white house, and stored them in his mar—a—lago estate in florida —— estate in florida. now all this will be going to trial in the lead up to the republican national convention, which is one of the biggest political events in the lead up to the presidential election. that's happening just a few short months later there injuly 2024 in wisconsin. so mr trump has a very busy legal and political calendar coming up, and what happens after that? could we see a former president and presidential nominee actually serving jail time? well, we are in uncharted territory here, but legal experts that we've been speaking to say that the case of the classified documents does carry severe penalties, including up to maximum sentences of up to 20 years — and that's the one that could really be the most severe for donald trump. the 2020 election case, also each charge could result in up to 20 years in prison, or a fine. and in the hush money payments case, the stormy daniels case, many legal experts say that's the least likely to end up with jail time. perhaps mr trump will receive a fine or probation. but there are many unanswered questions related to security and logistics around jailing a former president, so it's unclear if that could happen and if it will. live now to washington, where we can join robert moran, a republican strategist with the firm brunswick insight. robert, good to talk to you, thanks for taking the time to speak to us. looking at the polls and what you're seeing in the united states, these legal challenges and indictments don't seem to be touching mr trump in terms of popularity, why? the? in terms of popularity, why? they aren't at all- _ in terms of popularity, why? they aren't at all. the _ in terms of popularity, why? they aren't at all. the fact _ in terms of popularity, why? they aren't at all. the fact of— in terms of popularity, why? they aren't at all. the fact of the - aren't at all. the fact of the matter is the legal challenges, the indictments are not hurting donald trump in the republican primary, among republican primary voters. and we have a lot of data on this now. 72% of republican primary voters say they are not at all or not too concerned with his criminal indictments, and 74% of republicans nationally say he's not committed any serious crimes. so we have that data — we also know anecdotally that republican primary voters feel that the bulk of these are politically motivated. and then finally, we have the tracking data in the republican primary itself. so when we look at the national polling data, trouble leads the closest challenger, ron desantis, 54—22. and even when you then just make it a desantis, 54—22. and even when you thenjust make it a head—to—head when you test head—to—head, trump versus desantis, it's trump 61—31. so the issue is that it's not hurting trump within the republican primary voter base — and it appears to be potentially helping him. so for right now at least, with the data we have, it suggests that trump has the inside track to become the nominee in 2024. 50 has the inside track to become the nominee in 2024.— has the inside track to become the nominee in 2024. so what would it take to change _ nominee in 2024. so what would it take to change that? _ nominee in 2024. so what would it take to change that? nothing - nominee in 2024. so what would it take to change that? nothing i - nominee in 2024. so what would it i take to change that? nothing i guess would change this trajectory? weill. would change this tra'ectory? well, there could be h would change this tra'ectory? well, there could be some — would change this trajectory? well, there could be some things. - would change this trajectory? -ii there could be some things. so first, there has been some exhaustion among republican primary voters in republican elites with trump, with some donors, some folks running the state parties, and a concern that he can't win in the general election. now the general election data is actually very close — it shows biden with an average of 45% and trump with an average of 44%, and some of the most recent data we have from morning consult, for example, in latejuly has biden up for example, in latejuly has biden up three points, 44—41. so it's tight, and we don't know where the undecideds will go, if that is the two—person match up. but we have a couple things i can happen. we could get more republican exhaustion with trump, we could get a fear that he won't win the general election, in which case you might get defections to a challenger. and then, any number of things could happen with trump himself during all of these legal challenges where republican voters just say they've had enough. but right now, they don't seem to be saying they've had enough — they seem to discount it as politically motivated. seem to discount it as politically motivated-— seem to discount it as politically motivated. ., , a, ., ., ~ , ., motivated. robert moran, thank you ve much motivated. robert moran, thank you very much indeed. _ motivated. robert moran, thank you very much indeed. it's _ motivated. robert moran, thank you very much indeed. it's been - motivated. robert moran, thank you very much indeed. it's been good . motivated. robert moran, thank you very much indeed. it's been good to| very much indeed. it's been good to get your insights, thank you. thank ou. the uk prime minister has defended government plans to house asylum—seekers on a giant barge off the dorset coast, after the fire brigades union described it as a "potential death trap". the union wants a meeting with the home secretary over concerns about overcrowding and access to fire exits on the bibby stockholm. the arrival of the first occupants of the barge has been delayed until next week. 0ur correspondent danjohnson reports from portland. the flagship of government migration policy is still an empty vessel, and today, the prime minister had to explain why nobody�*s aboard. will bibby stockholm be in operation next week? yeah, the bibby stockholm will be in operation as soon as it's passed all the checks and regulations. this week? as soon as possible. it reached portland two weeks ago after a refit to double its capacity. when i was shown around, we were told it would be operational by the end ofjuly, but there were fire safety concerns. the home office said yesterday they've been addressed, but listen to this. we believe the bibby stockholm to be a death trap for many different fire safety reasons. but also it presents significant problems when there is a fire or a potential fire on the bibby, how firefighters could respond to that. then the home office said surther health and safety checks were needed. now we've got the health and safety executive saying it doesn't recognise the home office explanation of the latest delay. this was supposed to be the lead vessel in a fleet of barges that were to be placed around the country, but at the moment, it sits here, alone and empty — a bit of a floating grey elephant. protests on portland have echoed wider opposition. i have old ladies in my age group and above crying saying, i'm really concerned. rishi sunak can certainly say, "actually, it's just not viable." it isn't cheaper, it's never going to be cheaper than the hotels they are using presently. we've got loads of toiletries... others will welcome the men but still oppose their accommodation. i think it goes to show how ill thought out it is, how disorganised and chaotic it's been. some of the fire safety concerns are really, really serious. so next week, then, perhaps. designed to display government determination, now becoming a serious test of it. danjohnson, bbc news, portland. brazilian police have shot dead at least ten people in rio dejaneiro, in the latest of a series of deadly raids across the country. rio state police said officers had returned fire after coming under attack during an operation targeting criminal gangs in complexo da penha, a slum in the north of the city. the raid has brought the death toll from six days of police crackdowns on drug gangs in brazil to at least 42. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. bbc news — bringing your different stories from across the uk. this was the 22nd pride in the hull event. it's just nice being able to celebrate and be able to be open and dress up and really be proud. what does pride mean to you? not just accepting, but celebrating the differences in the world. you can tell that hull really is a great place for pride. l what does pride mean to you? about being yourself and being really open with everybody. as far as the lgb aspect, or sexual orientation aspects of the pride movement go, a lot of movement has happened, there is an awful lot more work to be done in identifying what can be done for our trans community. 0rganisers say they hope that by walking with transgender groups, it will mean even more people listen to their message. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. since the mass protests in iran that took place last year, hundreds of young, injured protesters have fled the country in the hope of receiving medical treatment abroad. sima moradbeygi was one of them. three months ago, with her three—year—old daughter, she escaped from iran and found refuge in neighbouring iraqi kurdistan. but iraqi doctors say they are not equipped to deal with her injuries, and that she needs to go to a country with advanced medicalfacilities. the bbc'sjiyar gol went to meet sima in iraqi kurdistan. a mountainous terrain lies between iran and iraqi borders. behind those mountains over there is the iranian border. in the past few months, tens of young, injured iranian protesters have crossed the border on foot, and they have come to iraqi kurdistan to deal with their wounds. three months ago, under the cover of darkness, sima moradbeygi, a wounded young mother, fled iran with her two—year—old daughter to find refuge in iraqi kurdistan. translation: l was forced . to give my daughter a sleeping pill for the journey, ensuring a noiseless trip. in september last year, mahsa amini, a 22—year—old kurdish iranian woman, was detained by morality police in tehran for allegedly violating strict islamic dress code. her death in custody sparked mass protests in iran. translation: despite numerous arrests, injuries and deaths, - people didn't retreat. we were hopeful. nine months ago in the kurdish city of buchan, in northwest of iran, iranian security forces fired 300 pair shot pellets at sima, causing severe injuries. translation: i could hear them shouting, "she needs— a blood transfusion. " an islamic revolutionary guard shouted, "throw her out the hospital." i could hear everything, i struggled to say, "don't let me die," yet i couldn't talk. nine months after my injuries, i still take strong painkillers. my right hand is paralysed. sima has multiple open fractures, with her elbow bearing severe damage. the pellets caused significant tissue destruction. her doctors considered amputating her arm if the infection continues. translation: my relatives knew. i was protesting against the regime. i was warned, for the sake of my daughter, i shouldn't protest. i always replied, "i protest for a better future for my daughter." the islamic regime has stripped us of our dignity and humanity. jiyar gol, bbc news, iraqi kurdistan. the pop singer lizzo, known for her songs celebrating body positivity, is facing claims of harrassment and body—shaming by three former dancers. the legal action against lizzo, her production company, and her dance religious, and racial harassment, discrimination, assault, and false imprisonment. none of the defendants have commented on the allegations. 0ur entertainment correspondent colin paterson reports. # turn up the music, turn down the lights... until now, 2023 had been a triumph for lizzo, winning record of the year at the grammy awards for about damn time, pulling a huge crowd at glastonbury... ..and even helping to bring about a resurgence in flute—playing. her messages of acceptance and body—positivity have made her a hero to many, and were a constant theme for her emmy—winning reality tv show, watch out for the big girls. girls that look like me don't get representation. it's time to find myself. but now, three former dancers, including two winners of the show, who went on to tour with her, have sued her and her team. the list of allegations is long and includes weight—shaming, sexual harassment, and having created a hostile work environment. i am so new to this industry. and for this to be my first experience is really... ..crazy. arianna davis also claims that after a show in amsterdam this year, lizzo pressurised her into touching a naked performer in a strip club while crystal williams says she's speaking out now because lizzo is set to do a second season of her tv show. so if there's anything i can do in my power to ensure that dancers or singers, or whoever decides to work with her don't have to go through the same experience, i'm going to do that. the two dancers from the reality tv show were sacked earlier this year by lizzo — the third dancer resigned. lizzo had not yet publicly responded to the allegations, which have yet to be tested in court. but in this age of social media, even being found innocent can still not be enough to prevent damage to someone's brand. colin paterson, bbc news. scientists in spain are investigating why increasing numbers of orcas, also known as killer whales, are targeting fishing and sailing vessels, damaging their rudders. its believed the behaviour which at the moment is thought to be a game has spread to 20?of the individuals. victoria gill reports. are these animals attacking or playing? for more than an hour, five orcas nudged, rammed and spun this yacht around. it's one of at least 100 incidents this year, and scientists are trying to work out what's driving this strange dangerous behaviour. playing with the rudder, the rotor is split on the back, so it was completely split. so it ended up in the water? yes, because it is floating the orcas are playing with it from the bottom on their nose. were they? yes. in this boatyard in southern spain, they prepared at least 40 sailing vessels damaged by orcas since april. here in the narrow strait of gibraltar, a population of fewer than 60 critically—endangered iberian orcas move through one of the busiest waterways in the world. in the nearby fishing port, some crews say their boats have also been a target. translation: we have seen them a few i days ago sailing an hour from here. i they have always been there, but they never came near us. in the last few years, it has changed. scientists are examining footage of these encounters that has been taken by sailors since 2020 — when sailing vessel started reporting that orcas were attacking them. it's thought the first encounters began four years earlier with just two young serious killer whales. now scientists say up to 20 individual animals have learned this behaviour. by pinning tracking tags to the animal's fins, a technique used for many years to study them, researchers here are gathering information that could help sailors. thanks to the satellite tagging, we know exactly how to say to the sailing boats and motorboats, how to leave the area and to not cross the main area of the killer whales. —— how to save the sailing boats. what are these killer whales trying to do? it's all a game, it's not revenge, it's not climate change or nothing like that, it is just a game and that is it. that game is focused on the boat's rudder. after orcas broke the rudder of the french boat earlier this year, they appear to play with the floating debris. these incidents have become divisive here. for tourists on whale—watching boats like this, they wait for hours just for a glimpse of these orcas because they are a spectacle, but sailors and the fishing industry here are desperate to understand how to avoid them. for sailing crews that are navigating these waters, if they see the orcas, what do scientists suggest that they do? full ahead. full ahead the motors and straight on. don't change the course, and full ahead. even that's not clear. these marine mammals and their unusual new habit is putting our ability to share the ocean to the test. victoria gill, bbc news, southern spain. bbc news understands that police are investigating a 6th report of non—recent sexual offences by the former bbc radio i dj, tim westwood. the metropolitan police confirmed the offences are alleged to have happened between 1982 and 2016. just two weeks ago, the 65—year—old had been questioned for a third time under police caution. this comes after bbc news and guardian investigations uncovered multiple allegations from 18 women of serious sexual misconduct and abuse by tim westwood. he denied those allegations. justin trudeau, the prime minister of canada, has announced that he and his wife of 18 years, sophie, will be separating. in an instagram post, he said they will "remain a close family with deep love and respect for each other and for everything we have built and will continue to build." the couple married in 2005 and have three children together. windsor castle's round tower re—opens on thursday for the first time since before lockdown. visitors will get a chance to climb the 200 steps to get to the roof. daniela relph has been to take in the view. within the grounds of windsor castle, the round tower looms large. dating back to 1170, it's had some upgrades over the years, but had to close during the covid lockdown. now the doors are open again for those of us who can face the 200 steps to the very top. much of what you see inside hasn't been touched in centuries. the wooden roof has been here since the 1400s, and you'll get up close to the sebastopol bell. installed during the reign of queen victoria, it's only ever rung following the death of the monarch. as you emerge on to the lower parapet, you're around halfway up. you'll get a chance to pause and take in the signs of the fortress that this tower once was. it's at this point on the climb up that visitors are told to put their phones and their cameras away. photos are banned because beyond the castle walls, are the royal family's private apartments. there are now 100 steps to go — up the narrower spiral staircase. if you're nervous of heights, maybe don't look down. as we head to the highest point, the top of the tower, 65m up. on a clear day, the views are spectacular. the expanse of the long walk through windsor great park is more impressive from up here. and as you do the circuit around the rooftop, you can also peer down into the grounds of the castle itself. here, the lower ward around st george's chapel. and take a look around the corner, you'll see the river thames as well as eton. tell us, do you need a head for heights to do this particular tour? it does help if you have a head for heights. however, i don't have a great head for heights, but people, when they get up here, are so wowed by what you can see, you actually forget about it. we don't call it conquer the towerfor nothing. there is so much detail to take in. you can look through the arrow slits put in to enhance the castle defences, and even look down through what were called the murder holes, designed to target any enemy below. these views are about offering visitors something different, a chance to see a part of the castle that isn't open to the public for most of the year, with a unique perspective over windsor. and if you time your climb just right, you'll find yourself with a special look at the changing of the guard. this is a tour which gives you a bird's—eye view of british history. the wet conditions are causing a big problem forfarmers, who are concerned about their crops and about the harvests to come — as our environment correspondent jonah fisher has been finding out. all right, guys, just watch your footing. it's a little bit slippery down here now. rain was forecast all day, and by 10am, much of the ground had turned from green to brown. but people kept coming to the north devon agricultural show. did you look at the forecast today and think, "maybe i won't bother"? no, i'd paid in advance for my tickets and i thought, "well, rain or shine, we'll have some fun." it was wet today, just as it has been for most of the last month. and that's bad news for farmers. robin milton has been growing oats in this field to feed his animals. about a fortnight ago, this was beautifully stood upright, a nice level, even crop. now the oats are on the ground, having buckled in the wind and rain. it's a scene being repeated across the country — food starting to spoil and rot in soggy, windswept fields. what would you say to people who say, farmers are always complaining? one month, they complain it's too dry, the next month, they complain it's too wet. i would say they're right. the reality is that what we're seeing, or it feels like we're seeing, is a climate now that is showing extremes, ratherthan a more seasonal pattern that we became used to, and that's concerning. after all the rain injuly, august has started in a very similar way, and that's left farmers looking rather nervously up at the skies, hoping for a break of several days in the weather, when the ground and the crops can dry and a harvest take place. the forecast doesn't look great at the moment, and i see it come out today, the crops around us are deteriorating very fast. it could be quite a write—off, really. the car parks at the show closed at lunchtime for health and safety reasons. with no harvest to help with, the tractors had a new role. it's summer. jonah fisher, bbc news, in north devon. now here's the weather with darren. hello there. this is not the sort of weather we'd get this time of the year usually, and we have to wait until later, next week for any significant improvements. now today, earlier on, we had gusts of 60mph on the isle of wight — the winds are not as strong now, along the south coast of england. and there was some sunshine around as well here and there in between the downpours. and this was the radar from earlier on — we had some thundery downpours developing across some southern parts of the uk, and that more persistent rain across northern parts of england keeping it particularly chilly here. and it's all been due to yet another area of low pressure that steered right over the uk — and that was storm patricia, named by the french met service, with greater impacts across that part of europe. but things are going to calm down as we head into the night because the strong, gusty winds will continue to ease, the more persistent rain and thunderstorms move away, it does turn drier — some clearer spells developing later on in places, as well, and temperatures by dawn around about 11—13 celsius. storm patricia, that area of low pressure will be heading into southern scandinavia, taking the wet and windy weather with it. and then, as we head into thursday, the wind direction changes. we get a cooler north—to—northwesterly breeze, but it may well be a dry day for many places. there'll be some sunshine, particularly early on. cloud will build up, though, almost anywhere could see a shower, and some of them will be heavy and thundery — especially, i think, across southeast scotland and northern parts of england. but if you get a bit of shelter from that northerly wind, places like glasgow could see temperatures up to 20 celsius. it should be warmer in the southeast, as well, with fewer showers around here. but that's not really the story on friday — again, most of the showers down the eastern side of england, thundery downpours developing in the southeast and east anglia this time. probably not quite as windy on friday, and many western areas will have a dry day with some sunshine. but again, it's not that warm — 18 celsius in belfast, 19 in cardiff at best here. still cooler air over the next few days, because the jet stream is to the south of the uk, and then, it'll come right over the uk — and that means we could see another area of low pressure heading our way by the time we get into saturday. another weekend, another area of low pressure, more wet and windy weather, a bit like today. the worst of it across england and wales. hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. on january the 6th 2021 was an unprecedented assault on the seat of american democracy. as described in the indictment, it was fuelled by lies. if a dcjury finds donald trump guilty, am i going to think that that was legitimate? she laughs. no! donald trump has convinced his voters that the government - deep state is after him, that he's a victim. - they believe that, and every - new charge and every new indictment only strengthens that narrative. the indictment is 45 pages long — four counts, including a charge of conspiracy to defraud the nation. donald trump is expected to appear tomorrow for his arraignment in federal court in washington, dc. prosecutors say they're pushing a speedy trial. that could mean a court case next year, right in the middle of the presidential election campaign. mr trump's supporters say it is "an outrage", levelling all sorts of accusations and insults against special counseljack smith. also in the programme, nigeria cuts off the electricity to niger in response to the military coup. west african leaders are in niger to negotiate while european countries begin evacuating their nationals from niger. and ai, the shortcut to quicker and cheaper diagnoses —

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