good morning. you have been crunching the numbers, they have just come out. they sound like they are doing very well. it does, doesn't it? they are benefiting from rising interest rates all around the world, not just in the uk. hsbc is a global buying and we have had interest rate rises everywhere, they have cashed in on back. margin up by a0 basis points and revenues increased as a result. —— cashed in on that. most of the money they are making is in asia, i assume? yes, pretty much. they are looking at good performances in commercial banking, transaction banking, things like that. it's looking pretty solid across the board. . , , ., board. there was this whole roblem board. there was this whole problem with _ board. there was this whole problem with their - board. there was this whole problem with their biggest l problem with their biggest shareholder in china wanting to split up hsbc. it looks like in the last quarter they have managed to fend it off, has that problem gone away now? i don't think it's gone away, but this set of results actually won't help the chinese investors, because they highlight the risk of commercial real estate exposure in china. detaching china from the rest of the bank wouldn't exactly help that.— exactly help that. and also, china is slowing _ exactly help that. and also, china is slowing as - exactly help that. and also, china is slowing as an - exactly help that. and also, - china is slowing as an economy, not performing as well as many hoped this year. we had the latest numbers yesterday in terms of manufacturing performance, service sector, it's not looking good and that doesn't bode well going forward. doesn't bode well going forward-— doesn't bode well going forward. ., , forward. no, they highlight some uncertainty _ forward. no, they highlight some uncertainty in - forward. no, they highlight some uncertainty in the - some uncertainty in the outlook, not only in china but also the uk, where they say there is continuing uncertainty about the economic outlook. in about the economic outlook. in terms of the pressure on hsbc going forward, your thoughts? i going forward, your thoughts? i thinkjust the possibility of a slowdown in the uk, and distress in the housing market possibly. coupled with the real estate concerns in china. but otherwise, simply a question of, can they continue to earn profits from increasing their net interest margin or are they going to get some pushback? we are already seeing some pushback from the regulator in the uk. , ., ~ , ., the uk. interesting, thank you for our the uk. interesting, thank you for your instant _ the uk. interesting, thank you for your instant analysis - the uk. interesting, thank you for your instant analysis on - for your instant analysis on the results just out from hsbc. let's get some of the day's other news now. here in the uk, a major shake—up of the way alcohol is taxed leaves many drinks costing more from this morning. under what the treasury says are new common—sense principles, tax is being levied according to a drink�*s strength. duty will increase overall, with most wines and spirits seeing rises, but will fall on lower—alcohol drinks and most sparkling wine. it's back to school as usual in september with teachers accepting a 6.5% pay rise. all four unions agreed to the latest government offer. members of the neu, the uk's largest teaching union, voted overwhelmingly to accept the pay offer. the union believes the deal will boost average teacher's salary by around £2,500 annually. the un's cultural agency wants to add venice to a list of world heritage sites in danger. the unesco report blames the italian authorities for a "lack of strategic vision". around 28 million tourists visit venice every year and are crucial for the local economy. nigel farage says coutts has offered to reinstate his personal and business bank accounts. mr farage said the new boss of coutts had written to him to say he could keep the accounts. natwest, which owns coutts, said it could not comment on individual customers. this week is dominated by energy news, and in the next few hours we'll be getting the latest earnings from oil giant bp — more on that in a moment. but first, much is being said about what the prime minister has been up to in scotland. rishi sunak argues britain needs to produce more of its own energy, and announced oil and gas drilling in the north sea will be expanded. 100 new licences will be issued this autumn, with more potentially to follow. sunak said that domestic production will cut the carbon footprint of imported gas, but critics argue he's backtracking on pledges to cut co2 emissions. 0ur climate editorjustin rowlatt has the details. powering up britain from britain is today's slogan. the more than 100 licences for companies to explore for and then drill to extract oil and gas are part of a plan to max out production from uk reserves. i'd say it's entirely consistent with transitioning to net zero that we use the energy we've got here at home because we're going to need it for decades. so far better for our economy, forjobs and for climate emissions that we get it from here rather than shipping it from halfway around the world. but critics say it won't actually add to uk supplies. the north sea oil and gas that he is helping to encourage is actually overwhelmingly exported. so 80% of the oil — and most of what's left in the north sea is oil — goes to international markets and is sold there. so it's not helping us with our energy security and it's not helping to displace imports. it also risks adding to uk emissions, say many climate scientists and environmentalists. they argue the planet—warming carbon dioxide from these new projects will breach the country's climate targets. so are carbon capture and storage projects part of the solution? carbon capture and storage takes c02 from the atmosphere or industrial plants like this gas—fired power station. when the gas is burned, the c02 is separated out and then it's pumped underground to be stored in empty gas and oil reservoirs. the government has announced today it will fund a project at st fergus, on the north—east coast of scotland, and another on the humber. it's already announced investment in plants on teesside and on the mersey. none of these have been built yet and it will be many years before they will be capable of trapping anywhere near the millions of tonnes of c02 these new oil and gas fields will produce. but government advisers say the technology is vital to meet net zero targets. most sectors we can get to zero emissions but there's a fewer we still expect to have emissions in the future, so think of the steel sector for example, or the cement sector, possibly aviation, even farming, so emissions continuing past 2050 and beyond. so we need carbon capture to reduce emissions to zero in those sectors. and why is reaching net zero emissions so important? the earth's top 27 hottest days ever recorded have been this month, according to the european climate change service. that is a result of heatwaves climate scientists say would have been virtually impossible without man—made climate change driven by co2 emissions. it's clear, its present danger. as the head of the un said only this last week, the age of global warming is over, the age of global boiling has arrived, and this sort of policy—making, having called for leaders to lead, is such a disappointment. the government has said it wants to lead the world in the fight against climate change, but critics ask why other countries would listen if the uk urges them to scale back oil and gas production when it is chasing down its last reserves of oil and gas. justin rowlatt, bbc news. well, let's now look at one of the biggest players in the multi—billion—dollar oil industry. bp, injust over an hour's time, will announce its second—quarter earnings, with bumper figures expected that will fuel the debate over taxing the profits of big oil. the oil and gas giant reported strong profits of £a billion in the first three months of this year as energy prices remained high. although slightly down on the previous year's profits, that is a big number and was hard for many in the uk to stomach as households and businesses struggled to pay their energy bills. so what can we expect today? let's get the view of chris wheaton, managing director of stifel investment bank. good morning. let's talk numbers. what do you think it's going to say in terms of how much money it's made in the second quarter?— much money it's made in the second quarter? companies like exxon, second quarter? companies like exxon. shall. — second quarter? companies like exxon, shall, we _ second quarter? companies like exxon, shall, we have - second quarter? companies like exxon, shall, we have seen - exxon, shall, we have seen profits down somewhere between 50 and 55% year—on—year, compared with the second quarter last year. i suspect bp's going to be a similar number. the expectation is $3.5 billion profit for the quarter, compared tojust over 8 billion profit for the quarter, compared to just over 8 billion in the same quarter last year. the reason for that drop, we have seen dramatically lower oil prices. the second quarter of last year was immediately after the shock of the ukraine invasion, oil prices reached as high as $120. this quarter, they have averaged just over $70. gas prices are down as well. we have seen that in our energy bills. well. we have seen that in our energy bills-— energy bills. that's also drivina energy bills. that's also driving profits _ energy bills. that's also driving profits lower - energy bills. that's also driving profits lower as l energy bills. that's also - driving profits lower as well. in terms of the tax on these profits that will go into the coffers of the uk government, it's actually not that much, is it? most of the money bp makes is outside of the uk. you it? most of the money bp makes is outside of the uk.— is outside of the uk. you are absolutely — is outside of the uk. you are absolutely right, _ is outside of the uk. you are absolutely right, and - is outside of the uk. you are absolutely right, and that. is outside of the uk. you are absolutely right, and that is| absolutely right, and that is one of the issues that the industry in the uk has been grappling with over the last 12 months. the government imposed windfall taxes, in may and november last year, they are targeting a very small portion of the oil profits. it's had a much bigger impact on the smaller oil companies, what we call the independent sector, independent of the big oils, and that has been one of the issues the government will have to grapple with if these new licences are awarded, as rishi sunak talked about yesterday. there is a separate question about how you find and fund the capital to be able to invest in these licenses. that's a much harder question given the windfall taxes that have been imposed, where that capital comes from. if you look at average tax rates, you are talking about bp tax rates in excess of a0%. if you look at return on capital employed, which i think links profits with the actual size of the business and the capital you need to generate, bp is making a low double—digit return on capital employed. that's not actually very high compared to where it has been in its history. politicians need to understand that you can tack this industry but it is a capital intensive one and it needs to generate enough capital to be able to fund it. with the energy transition as well. —— you can tax this industry. well. -- you can tax this industry-— well. -- you can tax this industry. well. -- you can tax this indust , industry. absolutely, it's a hu . e industry. absolutely, it's a huge talking _ industry. absolutely, it's a huge talking point - industry. absolutely, it's a huge talking point right. industry. absolutely, it's a i huge talking point right now, thank you, chris. the numbers from bp will come through in an hour and 15 minutes and when we get the detail, we will let you know. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk. for nearly a year, thousands of 55 to 7a—year—olds in cornwall who are former or current smokers have been coming to this mobile unit for a lung scan. i will see you in a bit, my love. today, janet is back for a follow—up scan after a nodule was found on her lung. everybody knocks the nhs but things like this are brilliant. catching lung cancer early is tricky as patients don't go to the gp unless they have symptoms. the problem is about 60% of those patients that we see through that pathway end up having a late stage cancer, and any other cancers that we find tend to be incidental. that's what this national pilot scheme is about, and this week the team in cornwall hit 6,000 scans. in that time, at least a5 lung cancers have been identified. smokers attending a lung check are getting help to quit too. it is never too late to stop smoking. they will always see benefits. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. here in the uk, the financial conduct authority has warned banks they face "robust action" if they unjustifiably offer low saving rates to their customers. the financial watchdog wants to ensure banks are passing on interest rate rises to their savers. the bank of england has now raised its base rate 13 times in a row, and is expected to increase it again on thursday. we're now joined by joshua mahony, the chief market analyst at scope markets. the ongoing pressure to help savers has been growing on banks in the rate started rising. banks in the rate started risinu. , ., , , rising. yes, ultimately this should be _ rising. yes, ultimately this should be an _ rising. yes, ultimately this should be an benefit - rising. yes, ultimately this should be an benefit to - rising. yes, ultimately this| should be an benefit to the increase in rates. we have a cost of borrowing increase, and in the mortgage industry... the key thing is the fca needs to know people actually benefit on the other side of it, in terms of higher savings rates. it seems like the banks are only passing on roughly a quarter of the interest rate hike that has been enacted by the bank of england, so this is about keeping their feet to the spire and holding them to account to increase the amount people are getting in their instant access savings accounts. —— keeping theirfeet savings accounts. —— keeping their feet to the fire. the savings accounts. -- keeping their feet to the fire. the new world that _ their feet to the fire. the new world that came _ their feet to the fire. the new world that came into - their feet to the fire. the new world that came into force - their feet to the fire. the new world that came into force on | world that came into force on monday show that banks must prove they are offering their customers their value. —— the new rule. it is what customers want to hear, because if you don't get what you expect from the bank it feels like there is nowhere to go in terms of recourse. nowhere to go in terms of recourse-— recourse. yes, this is an ongoing _ recourse. yes, this is an ongoing theme - recourse. yes, this is an ongoing theme we - recourse. yes, this is an ongoing theme we have| recourse. yes, this is an - ongoing theme we have seen over the past six months. businesses trying to profiteer from what has happened over the course of this crisis. increased prices have seen people paying more at the supermarket, but when we saw prices come down, we didn't see that necessarily reflected instantaneously. the same thing happened at the pumps, people pay higher energy prices but when they came down, they didn't necessarily drive down the price of petrol swiftly. the same happening here again, the banks are focusing on profits, not on making sure savers get a good deal. unless the fca do take action, and that's questionable how much they will do here, then really it's just going to be a case of business focusing on profits over the consumer, which is always going to be the case. we have 'ust always going to be the case. we have just seen the numbers from hsbc, doing extremely well thank you very much. let's talk about interest rates in the uk, do you think they will go up a quarter of a percent on thursday or half a percent? the narrative has _ thursday or half a percent? iie: narrative has changed thursday or half a percent? tie: narrative has changed over the course of the past two weeks. we saw a notable decline in the headline inflation reading. but we are still so far away from the 2% target, currently 7.9%. so yes, perhaps we may only see a smaller 25 basis point hike rather than the previous expectations of seeing 50, but we are still so far away that i think whether we see it this time around or next time, i think we are going to have to keep increasing rates and we are probably going to reach 6%, we are currently at five. {lilia we are currently at five. 0k, joshua, thank _ we are currently at five. 0k, joshua, thank you _ we are currently at five. 0k, joshua, thank you very - we are currently at five. 0k, joshua, thank you very much. china's restrictions on the exports of gallium and germanium come into effect today. they are used in smartphones, laptops, as well as in medical and defence sectors. unsurprisingly, both elements are on the eu and us lists of critical elements. last year, china controlled approximately 98% of the world's gallium production. it was also the world's leading producer of germanium, accounting for about 68%. the move is seen as the response by china to europe and the us removing their reliance on china's chip—making. 0ur asia business correspondent nick marsh has the details. now, you may never have heard of gallium or germanium, untiljust now, maybe, but they are important elements, so—called critical materials, and they're needed for chips in things like mobile phones, leds, satellites, military equipment as well, and the reason that they've been in the news is because most of it comes from china. 60% of the world's germanium and 80% of the world's gallium. and from today, it will be much harder for businesses to get their hands on them. let's take a look at what impact these restrictions are going to have and, more broadly, what this us—china materials war means for the rest of the world. the consensus is that it will be damaging but not fatal for the united states. the reason china dominates the market isn't because it's the only place where gallium and germanium exist, but because it's by far the cheapest place you can get them from. you don'tjust dig them up from the ground — they're derived from a more complicated production process and china has that capability. so governments and businesses will have to rely on cheaper substitutes and alternative sources. it means prices will go up, it means some products might be less effective and some production might be delayed. so this sort of poses a bit of an existential threat for western industry, because it's the gradual erosion of capability as it gravitates towards the place where the materials can be sourced reasonably. but in a broader sense, this threatens the overall narrative of globalisation — the idea that international markets will be able to deliver what you need, when you need it, at the price that you need. de—risking is what western governors like to call it — being less reliant on china. but this escalating tit—for—tat between the world's superpowers has got people worried about so—called resource nationalism, weaponising materials that you hold, the technologies that you have. a lot of people that think that will have global consequences also for the health of the planet and that is because a lot of crucial green technologies rely on these so—called critical materials. this isn't a national problem, this is a problem we face as a human race. and so hopefully policymakers can come to the table, secure access to the critical materials that are really essential for the energy transition, so we can start to tackle some of the challenges around decarbonisation. in trending, nick outlining the issues. let's unpack this further with neil shah, vice president of research and partner at counterpoint research. good to have you on the programme. these export restrictions come into place today, your thoughts on how significant that is? i today, your thoughts on how significant that is?— significant that is? i think it's significant _ significant that is? i think it's significant longer - significant that is? i think| it's significant longer term rather than short—term. short term it will cause a lot of pain for some of the companies directly going to be impacted with all these different materials, which go into semiconductors... they have a lot of different applications, requiring high frequency switching and also very high powered applications. the technology is moving towards high frequency, moving from ag to sg... high frequency, moving from ag to 5g... 0bviously also military and automotive, which also requires high power and high frequency in terms of radar and so forth. so definitely there will be impact, but it's not a right away ban, it's more export control so it will be more selected from the chinese perspective, which countries, particular vendor is don't get access very easily. this is what brings china's... not well—wishers, but the us more to the negotiation table... that was going to be my next question, will this lead to fresh negotiations, new pressure from china in terms of reaching more amicable solutions as opposed to a trade war kicking off?— war kicking off? exactly. this tech war has _ war kicking off? exactly. this tech war has led _ war kicking off? exactly. this tech war has led to _ war kicking off? exactly. this tech war has led to the - tech war has led to the globalisation of supply chains, and national security it is more of a race of national security... i would say definitely this will start fresh dialogues and bring all the parties to the table. because going back to the drawing board and setting up new policies and also processes to diversify the supply chain cannot happen overnight. there has to be some solution where both the parties and the entire global economy is not at risk. good to talk to you, thank you. let's see how the asian markets are faring today. hong kong pretty much unchanged. hsbc is listed on the hang seng index, that will be on the move given the much better than expected results that have just come out. australia's central bank decided to keep interest rates on hold today for the second month in a row, which is interesting, keeping the cost of borrowing at a%. the aussie dollar has eased slightly on that news. the price of oil is edging up as well, which is interesting. 0n the us, fairly mixed. flat trade for the main markets on wall street. in general, the feeling on markets is more positivity. inflation numbers out of europe yesterday which were similar to that in the us on friday, showing that inflation is not going up and up, instead it's coming slightly lower month on month, which is what markets want to see, investors want to see. so the economic prospects are brighter globally, which is why markets in general are trading, you know, on a happier tone. markets in general are trading, you know, on a happiertone. it is the month of august of course, many are away, so thin trading volumes which makes things a bit more volatile. that's it. see you soon. hello. july has certainly been a pretty wet month. and we started off the new working week with another dollop of rain, particularly across northern areas of the country. so skies quite cloudy like these in cumbria. it was also quite windy as well. and so far this month, we have seen some areas picking up more than three times as much rainfall as during an averagejuly, for example, in preston. so it has been very wet. even as the area of low pressure that brought the rain on monday starts to edge away, out in the atlantic, underneath this trough in the jet stream, we develop another potent area of low pressure that's set to bring wet and windy weather our way by wednesday. now, over the next few hours, it is a story of the rain across scotland, northern ireland, northern england, gradually turning a little bit lighter and a bit patchier in nature. it's largely dry, though, further south for southern wales, the midlands, east anglia, southern england. so it should be a fine start to the day for these areas. on tuesday we go, and i think the thickest cloud we'll see will be across southeast scotland, northeast england, threatening a few patches of rain, probably a few showers running into the north—west of both england and wales, but otherwise should be a brighter kind of day. a little bit of sunshine poking out to northern scotland and across wales and parts of southern england as well. heading into tuesday evening and overnight, that area of low pressure i showed you on the satellite picture will continue to develop and will start to swing its way in. and this one will bring quite widespread outbreaks of rain and a swathe of strong winds just running into its southern flank. so quite wet weather for northern ireland, northern england, some heavy rain also pushing into wales and the south—west, but it is across the south—west of england, really along the south coast, that we could get gusts of around a0 or 50 miles an hour, 50 to 60 perhaps across parts of northern france and the channel islands. that is likely to lead to some localised disruption. a few trees down and a few ferries across the channel could be affected by those strong winds and large waves as well. across northern scotland, that's probably where we'll have the best of the dry weather with some sunshine coming through. temperatures not that special across the north, not that special anywhere, to be honest. highs of about 17—21. that low pressure pulls away and for thursday the winds get a bit stronger in northern ireland for a time, but elsewhere the winds will gradually calm down. but it'll still be quite a blustery kind of day on thursday, a day of bright spells and passing showers. as you can see, as we work deeper into the first week of august, no real change — it stays unsettled. good morning, welcome to breakfast withjon kay and sally nugent. 0ur headlines. the price of stronger alcohol increases as the government changes the way drinks are taxed. it drinks are taxed. is day one of the great british beer it is day one of the great british beer festival. it is day one of the great british beerfestival. 0ne it is day one of the great british beerfestival. one of it is day one of the great british beer festival. one of the biggest of its kind in the world. we are here to test industry reaction to the tax increases. and after record profits for british gas last week, bp will announce its figures this morning — what's fair while households are still strugging? a fairy—tale finale to the ashes. stuart broad takes the final wicket, bowling england to a series—levelling victory against australia in his final match. and we are here in unst which hopes to become the first vertical spaceport in the uk. today will be driving yesterday but there is still rain in central areas but the outlook remains unsettled. i will have the details. it's tuesday, the 1st of august. the price of some wines and spirits will rise from today, while the cost of weaker drinks will fall after a major shakeup to alcohol taxation. the system aims to simplify alcohol duties by taxing according to strength. 0ur reporter ben king has the details.

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