hello, and welcome to the programme which brings together some of the uk's leading columnists with the foreign correspondents who write, blog and broadcast from the dateline: london. here in the studio are steve richards, who's been walking and reporting the westminster beat for decades, penning newspaper columns and presenting the podcast rock and roll politics. maria margaronis is a journalist, who's written and presented a number of radio documentaries on the crises man—made and natural which have afflicted greece. ashis ray has half a century of explaining events here to his readers in india. a full—time occupation in itself, you might think, but he's still found time to commentate on his beloved cricket. lovely to have you all new the studio. all together as well. so thank you for being with us. borisjohnson street, according to a ukrainian mp, could soon be found on maps for odesa, as it expunges the memorialisation of famous russians. assuming the british prime minister's visit to india this week is followed in due course by a free trade deal — something neither the european union nor the united states has pulled off — there'll probably be a thoroughfare named in his honour in mumbai, too. in this country, borisjohnson way might be a cul—de—sac. such is the growing contrast between mrjohnson�*s global reputation and his domestic one. despite championing the cause of ukraine in europe, there's been no finger waggling in his meeting with narendra modi for the indian prime minister's support for russia. modi, johnson, putin — populist leaders in the ascendant. by the end of this weekend, we'll know whether or not that holds true for france, too. steve, let us begin with borisjohnson at home, however much he would rather we weren't concentrating on that. what has changed this week and how potentially troublesome is that for mrjohnson? the mood of conservative mps, they are the ones with agency, everyone else can express opinions about him, they are the ones with the power to remove him and something moved on thursday, when the whips couldn't discipline them all to vote against what labour was trying to do, which is to start an investigation, fairly soon, by one of the parliamentary select committees, and the reason that is significant is we talk about what a conservative mp going to do, as if they were a collective, all of the same mind, all of similar experience. actually tons of them are pretty new to national politics, having got in in december 2019. a lot of the time, when people say conservative mps will do this, they don't know, they aren't sure what to do, and they are still in that kind of mood, but when you have kind of made something of a move to signal distance with the prime minister, that empowers you to do it again, so that is one of the things that has changed. and the other is itjust feels as if this crisis for him is just not going to end. there is a corrosive quality to it. it has always been deadly serious to face an allegation of making rules, breaking them and lying about doing so, but there was a sense sometimes it was going to fade, but it hasn't. so the combination of the two, i think, are significant. i was struck on friday, listening to lord hayward, a former conservative mp who has been around since the �*80s, who was recalling the mood change when he was a young mp for margaret thatcher in that last year, before... i heard that too. but he said something interesting, he said last weekend, easter weekend as it was, in much of the, much of the country, much of the continent, he said he was reflecting the prime minister was probably all right for now, and his mood had changed in the space of less than a week because he had been talking to conservative mps. what do you think is the problem here for borisjohnson? is itjust he, you know, it keeps coming back at him? people are just fed up with this. i mean that — i am fed up with it. we, i don't want to talk about this any more. the thing that puzzles me, this is a man who has been known to lie all his life. i think it was either his headmaster or house master at eton who wrote "boris doesn't seem to think the rules apply to him." look at the brexit campaign, the thing, there is going to be no border between northern ireland and the rest of the uk, it is endless, the lies are endless, and look at... but they haven't mattered apparently. look at the policy problems, look what happened during the pandemic. underneath the lies is a great mountain of incompetence and bad administration and bad government. now i see why lying particularly matters at the moment, when we have so many lies in international politics, when we have, you know, putin's lies about what is going on in ukraine. "it is not an invasion, we are acting to defend ourselves." lies matter, lies to the house of commons matter, breaking your own rules matter, but it is, to me it is like this is the sort of cherry on the cake of a lot else that has gone badly wrong. how was he received in india? this visit had been delayed because of covid, but there had been a sense it was one that the indian government was keen on, just as the british government was, and that perhaps he was a more attractive figure to many in india, certainly to the prime minister, than his predecessor theresa may, who went to india but whose visit was a bit of a flop really. well, over the years, boris has been a popularfigure in india, _ his dishevelled hair and hisjokes tended to go down well, - so to that extent, i think, i he is not an unpopular figure in india, they don't care much about what is going on in this| country, so he was well received, but unfortunately, for him, - if the timing of the visit - was meant to divert attention from what was going - on in westminster, it has failed spectacularly, _ and, certainly, the coverage that has come out in the last two days have overshadowed his claims - about trade and defence and the rest of it. - certainly on day one, i it was completely about the debate at westminster. which was taking place that day, on the first day of the visit to india. correct, and the fact - that the motion was passed and he has been referred i to the privileges committee it is bad news, but in india, . i think, the little saving grace he might have had on day two, i think that too - was dogged by questions - regarding what was going on back home, and as much as he tried i to deflect it by talking about other things, and the brighter side and so on, but i think- at the end of the day, - this tended to be the questions which were put to him at the press conference, for instance. - steve, we are at a strange stage. the police have said there will be no further announcements about fines over lockdown parties before the local elections, they have gone into their own version of purdah because they don't want to be accused of influencing the elections, they are two weeks away. come the friday after polling day, what will be the kind of calculation, do you think, the conservative mp may be making? two things, before then, i have spoken to some who have said that although they have big doubts about him, there is no way they will speak during this campaign, because all their local party activists are out campaigning, and they don't want to have quotes plastered over labour posters about their views of borisjohnson, so we are at a strange phase. some are speaking out already, and surprisingly loudly, that he has to go. if the elections go really badly for the conservatives, normally a prime minister can brush that off as midterm results, but because of this context, it will be explosive, and there is quite a pivotal by—election coming up later on in the summer so there are electoral tests, but, i think in a way, it has got beyond that, when you say why is it carrying on? it is the nature of the investigation, it might have been around since december, but it is, you can't get a bigger allegation. now he has always insisted he didn't think there were parties and the rest of it, but the police seem to be taking a different view, given the number of penalty notices that have gone out. there is this independent gray — not independent, commission by borisjohnson, gray report to come, and i think that is his problem, that the nature of what he is alleged to have done during these lockdowns, and that is the problem with voters as well, you know. isn't it really about the arrogance, about people's realisation of the arrogance of this prime minister, people whose relatives died who couldn't be with their relatives, who couldn't go to see their dying mother and father, everyone who lost someone and kept the rules is disgusted by this. i don't think arrogance is the right word. there is a thoughtlessness. most prime ministers are neurotic about every move they make. "if i do this, what will happen?" he doesn't tend to pose those questions, so a theresa may or a gordon brown having drinks at a works do, they would be, you know, is this, is this a party, is it a work do? could it be seen as a party? i don't think he goes through those thought processes. but why? why doesn't he? good question. what i would say is he was certainly in trouble in february, _ and then came the russian invasion, | and that seemed to give him a little | bit of a lease of life, - and you constantly heard | conservative politicians saying, | this is not the time to oust him, i but what has happened in the lastl week, i think, is a change of mood. i entirely agree with| what steve has said. that argument doesn't really stack up, lloyd george replaced asquith, churchill replaced chamberlain and margaret thatcher was replaced byjohn major during the first gulf war. modi's relationship with putin. first of all, how important is that relationship for india? i mean, i understand it is a historical association, the non—aligned movement and poking the united states in the eye which was popular in the 50s and 60s, but now? first of all, india hasn't supported russia on this invasion, _ so india has been neutral. the interesting thing is modi has done a sort of half somersault, i ifor the simple reason that indianl foreign policy, from 1991 onwards, was multi—alignment, _ because the cold war ended and india reached out to the west, j and the west responded, so it became multialignment but what modi did, - when he came to power he tilted towards the united states, - so from that position, _ i think it became a little awkward for the simple reason that people in the west started asking, - "but we thought that . you were with us now." but india has this disadvantage, - if you like, of dependence on russia in terms of defence. 50% of india's defence - imports come from russia. then over the years, - when it has come to tricky situations for india, - at international forums, at the united nations, _ at the un security council, russia has saved india. that is a very interesting perspective on that relationship, isn't it. prime minister modi makes this announcement during an interview or he says i want an immediate ceasefire, which is a slight toughening of the position, given they have had a position of neutrality on the invasion, that kind of took a bit of pressure, i guess, off borisjohnson, because people were saying shouldn't you have been out there, maybe not wagging fingers publicly, but quietly pressing behind the scenes and saying, "come on, we need you to use your influence on the russians." i imagine one of the things borisjohnson has been saying, and as part of this trumpeted trade deal, is he should be buying arms from britain instead of india, because britain has a large arms industry, so that is part of it. i wonder how much modi has been kind of, you know, getting a boost from boris's arrival? i saw the big posters up on the street saying "welcome borisjohnson," and, you know, there is all sorts of problems at home in india, and the fact the other issue for borisjohnson, is he going to say anything about the bjp and the muslim community? we talked last time about christians. yes, but i think he said nothing. nothing. there is a reference where boris said india has constitutional- safeguards on these matter, - because he was asked a question at the press conference. by the way, modi doesn't do press conferences, . so this is really unusual. yes, so they had the two statements made by the two leaders, _ they walked away and separately, from what i could make out, - perhaps at the residence - of the british high commissioner, boris held a press conference where he took questions, - so he did say that india has. safeguards, but that is a very soft thing to say, given - the current circumstances. let me ask you, i am interested in terms of what you were saying, both saying about weapons actually and this question of 0k, we have a big arms business in the uk, borisjohnson is — part of any prime minister's foreign travels is promotion of business interests on the part of their country, we have this tie—up with australia and the united states, we have india as part of the quad with united states and again, with other countries in that region, is it possible that india would be interested in this new alignment with the australians, with the british? i think it is awkward for quad. it is a competitor. but there is scope of british - exports, defence exports to india. there has been a steady stream, but not very significant, - in recent years, britain lost out - majorly on the combat aircraft deal, which went to the french, - but that is now mired in a little bit of controversy, for the simple reason that it is alleged - that the modi government paid possibly three times more - than what was estimated - by the indian defence ministry, and so it is a matter— of investigation by a prosecutor in paris, at the moment, so the charge is - obviously corruption. that said, i think britain- is a competitor when it comes to aircraft and other products, certainly, and i would venturej to say that this visit _ and subsequently will lead to some enhanced british exports to india. we were talking about weapons, let us talk about weapons to ukraine, and the prime minister announced british tanks are going to poland so poland can — to replace the tanks poland sent to ukraine, because ukraine has the engineering knowledge and spare parts for soviet era equipment, not western equipment. he also suggested there could come a point where we sent challenger tanks directly to ukraine. is that upping the ante, or is this such a blurred question it doesn't have clear significance? it does, and i don't think it is blurred. it is very interesting, when you look at the origins of many terrible global wars, world war i and world war ii, especially world war i, you could see everyone moving in different directions with no intention of it becoming a global nightmare, and it becomes one. when this began, people said biden, johnson, we have to be careful about escalation. there you have an example of something which appears to be escalation in terms of the uk's involvement, and i heard a tory mp being interviewed this morning saying, what is the end? johnson said putin must lose, what does that mean? what does losing look like? and that is related to the question of whether, you know, the uk and others should continue supplying all kinds of equipment to ukraine, because what is the end? and i think that question is starting to be posed and has to be answered, or else itjust stealthily becomes a potential terrible conflagration. it is already awful, but what is the end game? it is not clear. i thinkjohnson's rode back a little today and said this is under consideration. not it is definitely going to happen. i mean, he is thinking of doing what biden decided not to do with aircraft, but with tanks, and i do know there are ukrainian troops being trained to use tanks here, now. to me, it is not a clear line, you know, where, where does, where does this become a wider war and who makes it so? putin's testing a new icbm, it is really difficult. i completely take your point about people making moves and not knowing where they go. it seems just now on the ground that russia is very close tojoining up crimea, the crimea with the donbas, then we have on the other side moldova and in between odesa, that quintessential city, which is, i mean, that would be a huge deal if odesa fell to the russians. let us talk in the last few minutes, one of the things that unites modi, putin and boris johnson. we see them as populists, who have rode a wave of strong feeling. quite successfully, three of them, enforced in different ways. there is an election this weekend that could see a fourth joining that group, and it is the french presidential election where emmanuel macron, the centrist, challenged by marine le pen, and seems to be forever, when you think of her father as well. and, all right, people have said she is not going to win, but they haven't written her off. no, and i think part of the problem in france is that macron is not seen by most people as a centrist but being on the right, so it's a choice between two right—wing candidates, you have jean—luc melenchon's voters on the left. he is the candidate of the left, but he has familiarity. people are saying they can't bear to hold their nose and vote for macron. it reminds me of the trump—hillary clinton election, that perception of smugness, candidate for the rich, the establishment. all of that, again the polls suggest she won't win, but the underlying issues are not going away, which have produced this wave of populist... a lot of the issues were there five years ago, you can understand about some of the feeling that where has president macron been on these things? exactly, a lot of these things are insoluble by national governments, they are to do with globalisation, these enormous issues about energy, climate, migration that are threatening to people. one of the problems, i think, in this climate of anti—russial environment has been the fact that her party took this loan . from a russian bank. of course it was taken out six years ago, but the fact - is that it is still the party with the national rally, i is still paying back the loan and it comes at a bad time for her, - and in the debate macron raised this matter. - having said that, i think at the end of the day, i i think the fear of the far right will prevail, and therefore, - regardless of macron's average performance, i think people will reconcile themselves to re—electing him. it is a curious voting system. in the first round, virtually every voter has a voice and can identify, and that you get this incredible range, you know, the left would do better than expected and so on, and then, it is narrowed down, and people have to agonise over what to do. i am sure you will probably be proven right, because that is the essence of that system, isn't it. people in... he was supposed to drive people to a clear choice. and the least worse, so to speak. i am so used to shock results now, i would be surprised if there isn't a shock result. we were sitting here before, i think it is fair to say we were sitting not naming individuals, because i am not sure if any of you were on the panel the week before trump was elected, people were still pretty confident that he wasn't going to pull it off. even on election night, i remember the broadcasters were early on reporting as if hillary clinton had won. we are so conditioned to expect one thing, but we are now increasingly conditioned to be shocked. two factors — one is a large number | of undecided voters, and you don't| know which they will end up on the final day. _ the second is this very- significant jean—luc melenchon section of voters. he attracted 21% in the first round. and three—quarters of all muslim voters, if they can be persuaded that macron is at least more tolerable for their prospects than le pen, and you can mobilise that vote, that could be significant. but 50% of them might. i don't say it will happen, but one poll said that, i 50% of them might either not vote, or spoil their ballot. _ yes. i think he was in a heavily muslim suburb of paris, he is on it. he is on it. but a long way to go. the question is the future. we, you know, it is kind of the nature of our beast, we review the week, but we look ahead, and not withstanding the result on sunday night, it is a question of what happens next time round. there will be no macron because he can't run for a third successive term. will that party have a candidate, will there be a return to the left and right? marine le pen could be a a candidate in five years' time. absolutely. she has been around forever and will continue to remain forever a candidate, but this is the other thing, because the collapse of the so—called orthodox parties in france and the rise of macron almost as sort of a personalised party, has kind of completely fractured the party system, and yet, although it is a presidential election that we are witnessing now, you do have to have party bases. macron busted through that, but with these consequences, that the parties are so weakened there could be space for a le pen figure to surface at some point, so i think it is worrying that those older parties have just kind of collapsed, because what replaced them? the party may be over for some, but the consequences live on for everybody else. thank you all very much. thank you for your company, martine croxall will be be in this chair next week. i will see you in a fortnight. from all of dateline, goodbye. hello. a lot of dry weather to come across the uk for the remainder of the day and on into the week ahead as well. scant amounts of rainfall to come through the remainder of april. today, the wind is a little lighter than saturday but still quite blustery around the easterly or northerly coasts, and a big area of low pressure to the south—west, sinking into europe. this big height of the north across iceland is bringing us predominantly dry weather this sunday. some showers to clear the south—west of england through the afternoon and we could see one or two for northern england, the midlands, southern scotland and northern ireland through the afternoon, but they will be very scattered. always cooler not see coasts. some shelter to the west and we could be looking at highs of 17 or 18. we could be looking at highs of 17 or18. forthe we could be looking at highs of 17 or 18. for the evening and overnight, a few more showers perhaps for north—east england but overall a lot of dry weather. a bit more planned for eastern scotland. i think it will be a bit more mild first thing on monday frost free start to the week. few areas down to the lower end of single figures. for monday, high pressure sector shifts a bit further west, swinging the wind round to something more of a north—easterly and it kind of weakens the effect of the high, so monday, after a fine start, i anticipate more cloud bubbling up through the day with a chance of that cloud towering high enough in the afternoon to squeeze out a few showers. they will be fairly well scattered across the uk but a greater chance of many areas seeing them on monday, but eastern coastal counties look set to remain dry. tuesday, hyperstill counties look set to remain dry. tuesday, hyper still with us, and it stays with us through the rest of the week. we switch to a more northerly wind direction, tapping at arctic air, and it looks like we will pull in more cloud. initially from the north sea, but it will spread west, so more overcast skies on tuesday and they cooler feel thanks to the arctic air. temperatures into the mid—teens in the best sunshine, butjust nine or ten along the north sea coast. for the remainder of the week, it looks like we will tend to stay in arctic air with a northerly airstream for the a lot of dry weather to come, some sunny spells but look out for local pockets of frost late in the week. this is bbc news broadcasting in the uk and around the globe. i'm david eades — live in clichy — northwest of paris. our top stories... voters in france head to the polls to decide their next leader in the final round of the country's presidential election. emmanuel macron is well ahead of marine le pen in the opinion polls. she has cast her vote, emmanuel macron is expected to vote shortly. both candidates have urged people to get out and have their say, with a fear that the abstentions could be high. hello i'm ben boulos in london. also on the programme. japan says 10 people have died off the northern island of hokkaido

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