let's get down to business, and we begin with the intense diplomacy over the crisis at the ukraine—russian border. as you've been hearing, borisjohnson is due to hold talks with the russian president before visiting eastern europe this week. foreign secretary liz truss said on sunday she would set out legislation that would give moscow notice of a "severe economic cost" for any incursion into ukraine, by strengthening britain's ability to target russian assets in the uk. she will outline the details to the house of commons later today. this comes as energy prices soar on concerns russia could restrict supplies of gas to europe — it supplies around 40% of the eu's energy needs. chris weafer is business and investment strategist at macro advisory. good morning. so there is a lot happening this week and all the time these concerns over what russia might do next and the gas price is going up and up. yes because the focus has been on the worst—case sanctions and this is being talked about a lot in washington in recent weeks in particular and by the european commission essentially saying that in the worst—case scenario which is that russia launches a full invasion of ukraine than the west would respond with what some senators in washington called sanctions from hell which will aim to exclude russia from the global financial system, from swift, as well as from economic sanctions within that. in that case the concern is that russia would then either, by default, cut energy supplies to europe, gas, oil, industrial materials and other commodities and that would then leave the eu in a difficult situation through winter. remember, you are talking about the worst—case scenario sanctions based on the full invasion and there really is no evidence that russia intends to go that pat path. so the sanctions we are likely to end up with should be considerably less and there for less damaging for the energy exports as well as for the russian economy.- exports as well as for the russian economy. the us has said that if — russian economy. the us has said that if there _ russian economy. the us has said that if there was - russian economy. the us has said that if there was a - said that if there was a situation where the european union was not getting the gas is vitally needed from russia, it was in a squeeze, that the us would step in with supply. how would that work? that is not realistic. the us does have the ability to raise exports but, remember, you are talking about enormous infrastructure, lng tankers, as well as diverging supplies that the us itself has had difficulty with supply late last year so the amount that the us can actually deliver to europe would be limited and, in fact, realistically there is nowhere else, even in combination with qatar, australia, the us and other places, there is no way that the eu could substitute the loss of russian gas if that were to happen and they couldn't, for years. it is not even a short—term problem but, realistically, the amount of gas that russia supplies to europe is so large it simply could not be sourced from anywhere else over a multi—year period. anywhere else over a multi-year eriod. �* , ., anywhere else over a multi-year eriod. �* ,, ., , period. and your thoughts . uickl period. and your thoughts quickly on _ period. and your thoughts quickly on the _ period. and your thoughts quickly on the comments | period. and your thoughts - quickly on the comments from the foreign secretary, liz truss. later she will outline the government's economic sanctions towards russian. there is a lot of russian money in london, isn't there, particularly in property and other assets. russian oligarchs see london as a place to, you know, to store a lot of their money, essentially.— a lot of their money, essentially. a lot of their money, essentiall . f essentially. they're in mind that these _ essentially. they're in mind that these other _ essentially. they're in mind| that these other worst-case that these other worst—case scenarios and there is no evidence that russia has any intention to push it that far to those sanctions. it would not be accepted by the russians at home either. so we do see headlines and they focus on maximum impact sanctions but this is most unlikely and, of course, the uk must be careful because london is known as the in international financial centre and it attracts business from all over the world there would be a lot of other investors and companies or individuals from places like asia or other markets who would be looking at what the uk does to russian oligarchs. so there is the sense that you spoke about collateral damage to europe with energy but london also needs to be careful about the restrictions it puts in place against individuals in russia because others will watch that closely and say, well, that may happen to us as well, that may happen to us as well, as it were. so these things always have a double edge. things always have a double edae. ~ , ., things always have a double edie, . , ., ~' , things always have a double edue.~ , . ~ ,., things always have a double ede.; ,., ~ . edge. we shall keep a close e e. edge. we shall keep a close eye- thank _ edge. we shall keep a close eye. thank you _ edge. we shall keep a close eye. thank you for - edge. we shall keep a close eye. thank you for now. - uk food and drinks firms say they are concerned about supply shortages as a deal brokered by the government last year which ensured carbon dioxide supplies comes to an end. c02 is used in fizzy drinks, it's also used to keep packaged food fresh and to stun livestock before slaughter. the government stepped in to subsidise a major c02 producer in october after its shutdown due to high gas prices threatened food supplies. that arrangement ends on today, despite continuing high global demand for the gas. nick allen is chief executive of the british meat processors association. good morning to you. have you heard anymore about whether the government may step in again or what might be at play here? the government _ what might be at play here? tue: government have what might be at play here? tte: government have been what might be at play here? tt2 government have been adamant all along that they will not step in again. this is a commercial arrangement between industry and suppliers so we have been warned the government will not intervene. in terms of the deal, yes, deal comes to an end today and we sincerely hope that the deal has been struck between cf industries and the suppliers of c02. the feedback we're getting on the ground is there is no signs of that having happened yet so we are hopeful that at least in the short term the industries will continue producing fertiliser and c02. , ., and c02. something i understand that has changed _ and c02. something i understand that has changed from _ and c02. something i understand that has changed from the - that has changed from the analysis of my colleague, ben king, in our business unit is that the price of ammonia has gone up on world markets significantly since september last year so actually for cf industries they are making that much more money for that reason so there for their situation is a lot better than it was last year. a lot better than it was last ear. ~ , ,., y a lot better than it was last year. absolutely. ask any farmer in _ year. absolutely. ask any farmer in the _ year. absolutely. ask any farmer in the land - year. absolutely. ask any farmer in the land how. year. absolutely. ask any i farmer in the land how much year. absolutely. ask any - farmer in the land how much he has the paper fertiliser and farmer in the land how much he has the paperfertiliser and it is more than doubled in the last three or four months. so, yes, that is an encouraging sign that that should continue at the moment as someone said earlier on there is no better time to be producing ammonia at the moment. so we are very hopeful that production will continue and we will not have any shortage problems. but if production — any shortage problems. but if production does _ any shortage problems. but if production does not _ any shortage problems. but ifi production does not continue, explain to us, reminds the consequences of that, the fallout. , . fallout. cf when they closed three or four _ fallout. cf when they closed three or four months - fallout. cf when they closed three or four months ago i fallout. cf when they closed l three or four months ago they were producing about 60% of the c02 we use in this country so in that time we made good inroads in fighting other sources of c02 but we cannot replace it completely. it is difficult to put a figure on it but at the moment there is only replacement for about half of it. so we could find ourselves significantly short of c02 again and that would obviously involve massive price increases and some people with particular needs for co2 with problems. we have been assured by government that if that happens that the abattoir industry would be one of the priorities for people to get that to avoid animal welfare problems.- get that to avoid animal welfare problems. get that to avoid animal welfare roblems. ,, ., , welfare problems. the nhs has been top priority _ welfare problems. the nhs has been top priority prior - welfare problems. the nhs has been top priority prior to - welfare problems. the nhs has been top priority prior to now, | been top priority prior to now, hasn't it? food and drink through bit further down on the list. ., , , through bit further down on the list. . , , ., list. that is right. it is not all food — list. that is right. it is not all food and _ list. that is right. it is not all food and drink- list. that is right. it is not all food and drink but - list. that is right. it is not all food and drink but the| all food and drink but the hospitals, nuclear plants and for animal welfare reasons they probably prioritise the abattoir�*s who need it to stun animals so hopefully, many of my ambers will not have a problem but that does not mean that we can use it for packaging and other reasons, that they won't have columns and the cost could rise significantly.— and the cost could rise significantly. and the cost could rise sianificantl . ., ,, , ., ., significantly. thank you for caettin significantly. thank you for getting no _ significantly. thank you for getting on early _ significantly. thank you for getting up early and - significantly. thank you for getting up early and being | significantly. thank you for i getting up early and being on the programme. that is the chief executive of the british meat processors association. well, let's stay on the subject of rising prices with inflation increasing sharply across europe, many countries are facing a cost—of—living crisis. spain is among the hardest hit, with consumer prices rising by 6.5% last year. it's latest inflation figures are due out this morning with spaniards bracing themselves for further possible rises as guy hedgecoe reports from madrid. in the kitchens of this restaurant, a classic spanish dish is being prepared. fried potatoes in a spicy sauce. this establishment claims to make the finest in madrid. but in recent months the cost of making them has risen substantially. translation: transport costs have gone up, food has gone up and prices in general. the impact of this on us is that on the one hand it costs us more to purchase products and also we are in a medium— low income area and we always seem to have less every month. , ., ., always seem to have less every month. , . ., ., , always seem to have less every month. ., , ., month. the restaurant has share the burden _ month. the restaurant has share the burden of— month. the restaurant has share the burden of these _ month. the restaurant has share the burden of these rising - the burden of these rising costs with its customers, putting prices up by 5% recently. over the past year the prices of spanish dietary staples such as vegetables, grains and bread have increased sharply. the price of olive oil has gone up by 27% but energy costs have increased by even more as part of what has been an international trend. the cost of electricity in spain most doubled last year and is a main cause of the recent price squeeze and in an effort to keep energy bills under control, the left—wing government of pedro sanchez introduced measures including tax cuts but there are other inflationary factors are most notably covid. transitioning from an economy that has been locked down and then restricted to a more open economy, of course it has changed the amount of demand from no all to intense demand in certain classes of goods and services but also we are transitioning from a pre— pandemic economy to a different one with a different mix of business that people demand. find different mix of business that people demand.— different mix of business that people demand. and that will create shortages _ people demand. and that will create shortages in _ people demand. and that will create shortages in the - people demand. and that will create shortages in the short| create shortages in the short run,. ., ., , run,. the government has promised _ run,. the government has promised to _ run,. the government has promised to raise - run,. the government has promised to raise the - run,. the government has - promised to raise the minimum wage this year in an effort to keep up with price rises. spanish workers are nervously watching the data. translation: the idea right now is to hang in there because right now we do not make money. we keep business going in the hope that the dynamic blend and cost will drop again. people like me, in their 50s, we do not have many options when it comes to looking for work elsewhere. the andemic looking for work elsewhere. the pandemic had the spanish economy harder than any other in the eu in 2020. now gdp is growing again but the cost of living is making recovery an uphill struggle. retail sales injapan rose to 1.4% in december from a year earlier. that's according to data released by the government on monday. it's the third straight month of increases, but december�*s figure comes in below a median market forecast rise of 2.7%. that is some of the latest economic news out ofjapan. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: roam if you want to but it will be more expensive — vodafone joins the mobile phone companies re—introducing roaming fees for brits visiting the eu. this is bbc world news, the latest headlines: spotify says it's working to add a content advisory to any podcast episode that includes a discussion about covid — after a row about misinformation. north korea is thought to have tested one of its most powerful ballistic missiles in years — the us urges pyongyang tojoin direct talks without preconditions. shares in the casino thank you for dropped by as much as 30% on the news of the arrest of its chief executive on sunday stopping the company is the latest to be caught up in chinese authority crackdown against macau's gambling. that speak to sarah thompson. he is a very high—profile figure, what is going on? a very high-profile figure, what is going on?- a very high-profile figure, what is going on? that's right and it is really _ what is going on? that's right and it is really an _ what is going on? that's right and it is really an all-time - and it is really an all—time low for the company macau legend that owns and operates the casino resort in group to. his arrest comes as authorities in macau are really cracking down on the illicit flow of capital from the mainland and you have to remember that macau is the world's largest gambling hub and it has been a popular destination particularly for chinese travellers coming over to macau purely to gamble because all forms of gambling are illegal on the mainland and weng lin chan himself, he owns around one third of macau legend, but he is also chairman of the action group. it is the second—largestjunket of the action group. it is the second—largest junket operators so the uninitiated junket operators really offer perks to highrolling high spending gamblers and it could probably best be described as a combination of moneylender with vip travel agent thrown in and weng lin chan's arrest comes just months after the head of macau's largestjunket operator was arrested and police are saying that the two junket groups worked together and had engaged in quote, illicit and criminal activities. fik engaged in quote, illicit and criminal activities. 0k sarah, thank you- — criminal activities. 0k sarah, thank you. an _ criminal activities. 0k sarah, thank you. an interesting - criminal activities. 0k sarah, l thank you. an interesting story to keep an eye on their. asia's third largest economy, india, will present its budget this week at a time when it is struggling due to the third wave of the pandemic. but with upcoming elections in key states, the focus could be on populist schemes, the rural economy, and bringing backjobs as archana shukla reports. at 75 years old, this woman is still in the driving seat in her farm. still in the driving seat in herfarm. a progressive farmer, she has broken stereotypes. in line with the government's push to diversify away from the prominent wheat in the region, she has switched to growing vegetables. with the lack of a ready market and rising costs have set her back. translation: the cost of production is too much. ., ., much. the government had promised — much. the government had promised refunds _ much. the government had promised refunds would - much. the government had - promised refunds would double farmers' incomes by year 2022. five years on, costs have doubled and income has shrunk. winning the trust of these farmers who protested year along, forcing the government to contentious is critical for the government. with two large ruling states facing elections in the coming month, the government spending on welfare is expect it to go up. two years after the pandemic first head, consumer demand is slowly returning. but from rural india to urban centres across the country, inflation is this recovery small and medium businesses like these employ more than 80% of the informal workforce of india is waiting on formal government support. this man says his factory that makes bicycle parts has seen production depth 50% in the last two years. he says none of the government lending schemes for small firms compete. translation:— for small firms compete. translation: ' ~ ., ., ~ , translation: 9696 of all msm is a micro unit— translation: 9696 of all msm is a micro unit and _ translation: 9696 of all msm is a micro unit and need _ translation: 9696 of all msm is a micro unit and need funding - a micro unit and need funding support but the credit schemes don't reach them.— don't reach them. boasting manufacturing _ don't reach them. boasting manufacturing basis - don't reach them. boasting manufacturing basis will. don't reach them. boasting manufacturing basis will be crucial to bringing back the workforce, but with a tight fiscal position and expansionary budget in an election year, may call from a delicate balancing act from india's finance minister. now that travel is resuming, watch out for unexpected charges to your mobile phone bill. because for some brits travelling in europe you may now be charged extra when using your mobile. from today uk mobile network vodafone reintroduces roaming charges for customers travelling to europe. rival network ee will do the same in march. the three network has also said it will bring in roaming charges between the uk and europe, though their change is planned for may 2022. virgin media 02 has announced it will not start charging virgin mobile or 02 customers extra for using their phones in europe. joining me now is matthew howett, founder, assembly research. good morning matthew, good to see you. so, talk us through how expensive this could become and also, you know, the fact that virgin media are not following suit. does that give them the edge or not? tt potentially does. it is something of a perfect storm, we have obviously had the uk leave the eu which has meant that these prices can come back both at the retail level and the wholesale level, and as you said there are, people are picking up travel again. until recently of course the operators have lost a lot of revenue particular from outside of europe where these charges have not been regulated and it has sort of made up for some of the cost, i guess, of the regulation that we have had in place for the last ten years. at the moment virgin media 02 is not bringing back those charges but it remains to be seen how long they can maintain that position, but i think we are not going to see the return to the shots that many people had in the past when they would come back to hundreds if not thousands of pounds on their bills. we've got a price cap of £50 which means that it is quite difficult to go above that, you have to ably opt into it and there are a range of packages that are available where you can reduce still even further the cost of roaming to about £2 a day which means that you can use your home allowance when you are abroad. so you can use your home allowance when you are abroad.— when you are abroad. so the key is to be aware _ when you are abroad. so the key is to be aware that _ when you are abroad. so the key is to be aware that this - when you are abroad. so the key is to be aware that this is - is to be aware that this is another situation when we travel because we are so used to travelling all over europe without worrying about this it also be aware, look at what packages are available before you set off, but i guess while you set off, but i guess while you are overseas, justjump on the wi—fi as much as possible, tenure date of, is that the key? tenure date of, is that the ke ? , . ~' . ~' , tenure date of, is that the ke? , ., key? gimmick, making use of hotelwi-fi — key? gimmick, making use of hotel wi-fi will _ key? gimmick, making use of hotel wi-fi will absolutely - hotel wi—fi will absolutely help you if you don't want to spend that £2 a day. i think a lot of people were fairly cautious anyway because they weren't always sure what was included and what wasn't. think the difference obviously this time around is that many more of us are using lots of different apps that consume a lot of data, so if you are going to be using your phone a lot, then absolutely make use of the hotel wi—fi and if you are going to be going abroad for a much longer period of time, you can consider getting a local seven that you can pop into your iphone and then roam like you are a citizen of that country. like you are a citizen of that count . ,.. , , like you are a citizen of that count . h. , , ., country. the scary thing is for families who _ country. the scary thing is for families who have _ country. the scary thing is for families who have several- families who have several children, constantly using lots of apps, it's looking those down before you head off, isn't it? ~ , , down before you head off, isn't it? ~ , ., down before you head off, isn't it? ~ _, down before you head off, isn't it? absolutely and you can also turn off data — it? absolutely and you can also turn off data for _ it? absolutely and you can also turn off data for certain - it? absolutely and you can also turn off data for certain apps i turn off data for certain apps if you want in your settings on your phone so you can get a good amount of control that way. the alternative of course is to switch to one of those operators that haven't yet introduced the charges copy it's also worth pointing out that if you haven't actually upgraded your tariff or a new customer to any of those networks that are bringing back charges, then your roaming will stay as it was before, so you probablyjust need to double check whether or not that's the case before you set off. ok case before you set off. 0k matthew. _ case before you set off. ok matthew, thank you very much. top tips there are. so be aware folks, if you are watching us in the uk, you are headed into europe, do make sure you check all your charges, what your contract says et cetera before you leave. so let's have a look at the financial market. really thin trading today in asia, because this is lunar new year �*s eve, and in asia it's probably the most important holiday of their calendar year, so most markets, many markets are closed. mainland china is shut for the whole week. hong kong singapore closed at lunchtime today, south korea was closed but japan lunchtime today, south korea was closed butjapan has remained open, so the japanese market up over i%. this was hong kong earlier today, you can see the price of oil edging up can see the price of oil edging up again which is a constant concern forfinancial up again which is a constant concern for financial market. we had news out yesterday from china, there for reactivity slowed in the month of january so that is on the mind of investors, they will�*s number two economy and that is as they crack down on outbreaks of covid in recent weeks and in recent months so that is being seenin recent months so that is being seen in factory activity in china. so we shall see how this week progresses but for asia this week, pretty much no action at all, unless of course you are injapan. i will see you are injapan. i will see you soon. hello there. storm corrie continuing to bring some damaging gusts of winds during the overnight period and to start monday morning. met office warnings remain in force for strong winds across more eastern parts of the country and we'll also have an ice risk to start the day across northern scotland — some cold air digging in behind the storm as it moves out into the north sea. but you can see a real squeeze in the isobars still across eastern coastal parts of scotland, down towards the wash and norfolk, so the yellow warnings remain in force through this morning for further gusts of 50—60 mph. eventually, the strongest of the winds will pull away from the east coast, and then it'll leave a blustery day for all. after that icy start across northern scotland, temperatures will rise a little bit, but it's going to be one of sunshine and blustery showers. these showers again wintry over the hills of scotland, some of these showers also getting into parts of north west england, the midlands, wales and south west england. probably the best of any sunshine will be reserved for eastern england, but a fairly cool day to come and temperatures of 5—9 degrees — particularly when you factor in the strong north—west wind. as we move through monday night, we'll see a more substantial area of patchy rain pushing into western scotland, perhaps western wales, north west england, tending to stay drier across eastern areas, but it will turn a bit murkier because we're starting to import some milder airfrom the west. some lows of 4—8 degrees. and you can see that here on the pressure and air mass chart. into tuesday, it's a lot milder. it's fairly strong winds again from the west but this air source coming in from the mid—atlantic. it will still be quite chilly and breezy across the far north of scotland, for the northern isles with showers here but elsewhere, some sunshine. more cloud for northern ireland, large parts of england and wales. could see a bit of murkiness, some drizzle over western hills, but it's the temperatures that'll be notable on tuesday — in the low teens celsius for many. wednesday's another mild day. rather murky again, rather cloudy, too. it'll be another breezy one. and those temperatures will range from around 11 to 13 degrees. then some changes as we move out of wednesday into thursday. this cold front spreads south—eastwards across the country and introduces much colder and fresher air, which will reach all areas by the end of friday. so temperatures will be coming down on thursday, particularly across the north. into friday, could see some wintry showers across northern areas, although we'll hold onto some dry weather in the south. good morning. welcome to breakfast with dan walker and sally nugent. our headlines today... mandatory covid vaccinations for nhs staff in england could be scrapped. ministers meet today to make the final decision. the manchester united footballer mason greenwood is continuing to be questioned by police on allegations of rape and assault. prices are going up but what can be done to help? a delay of national insurance going up is going ahead. what can be done to help people with energy bills? the storm well