hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me arejessica elgot, deputy political editor at the guardian, and peter foster, public policy editor at the financial times. tomorrow's front pages. the metro says prince andrew will not settle his civil sex abuse case, and is set for a showdown in front of a jury in new york. it's the same lead story for the express, which also has an image of borisjohnson, saying the conservative party are rallying behind him. the guardian covers that latest attack on the prime minister's credibility, after he was accused of lying of the rescue of a charity's cats and dogs from afghanistan. borisjohnson is accused of telling "another whopper" in the daily star. the planned rise in national insurance is the focus of the telegraph, which has a report from mps who say it'll lead to higher prices in shops. the ft says the european central bank has warned lenders with significant russian exposure to ready themselves for international sanctions against moscow, if it invades ukraine. let's begin. a few hours ago, if you'd asked me to guess what the papers would be in the morning, i would've thought it would be sue gray, sue instead, there's a wide range of stories in the front page of the papers — let's begin, jessica, with the independent and putting the two stories together on the front page. we don't yet have the front page. we don't yet have the sucre a report, and johnson accused of air pet left. take us away. accused of air pet left. take us awa . , ., , ., , ,, away. these two stories spell out not ureat away. these two stories spell out not great news — away. these two stories spell out not great news for _ away. these two stories spell out not great news for boris - away. these two stories spell out not great news for boris johnson. not great news for borisjohnson. certainly the government were hoping it would be today, lots of mps away from parliament tomorrow — it makes things a bit more complicated in terms of the choreography of the reports. we hear that sue gray is genuinely still working on it, still having things checked, there is loads of things that need to be checked with the lawyers and cops now that there's a police investigation. people are adamant that it's not them putting the brakes on it. it feels like waiting for good though, we are in limbo about it. during this torrid time for the prime minister, more e—mails coming out of the sco about the afghan airlift, making these allegations which has drawn some fury from number ten and the charity involved that borisjohnson had ordered this airlift of animals from afghanistan, which people have said was at the expense of other people who could have been rescued. now that's fiercely denied by both the government and the charity, but it's a very damaging row because of the way the whole things look —— thing looks. way the whole things look -- thing looks. ., ., , ., way the whole things look -- thing looks. ., ., ,, , way the whole things look -- thing looks. ., ., y., , i, , looks. how do you see boris johnson's — looks. how do you see boris johnson's day _ looks. how do you see boris johnson's day and _ looks. how do you see boris johnson's day and the - looks. how do you see boris johnson's day and the way i looks. how do you see boris. johnson's day and the way it's looks. how do you see boris - johnson's day and the way it's being covered in the independent and other papers? it’s covered in the independent and other -a ers? �* , , covered in the independent and other “aers? �*, , ., ., covered in the independent and other n-aers? �*, , ., ., covered in the independent and other “aers? �*, , ., ., ., papers? it's been another day of battles for— papers? it's been another day of battles forjohnson, _ papers? it's been another day of battles forjohnson, it _ papers? it's been another day of battles forjohnson, it seems - papers? it's been another day of| battles forjohnson, it seems like it never_ battles forjohnson, it seems like it never ends. the stuff about the animals. — it never ends. the stuff about the animals, we've been going around this for— animals, we've been going around this for many times, but he's there on the _ this for many times, but he's there on the bbc— this for many times, but he's there on the bbc news bulletin tonight saying _ on the bbc news bulletin tonight saying it — on the bbc news bulletin tonight saying it was complete nonsense, he didh't_ saying it was complete nonsense, he didn't intervene. but clearly officials _ didn't intervene. but clearly officials believe that he did intervene. downing street's word is quite _ intervene. downing street's word is quite careful thatjohnson intervene. downing street's word is quite careful that johnson didn't instruct — quite careful that johnson didn't instruct anyone to do anything specific— instruct anyone to do anything specific - _ instruct anyone to do anything specific — but at some level it seems — specific — but at some level it seems pretty clear that an instruction seems to have been reached — instruction seems to have been reached -- _ instruction seems to have been reached —— seems to have reached them _ reached —— seems to have reached them that— reached —— seems to have reached them that the pm wanted these animais— them that the pm wanted these animals rescued. i think the charity concerned — animals rescued. i think the charity concerned says they charted a different — concerned says they charted a different plane and they tried to -et different plane and they tried to get the — different plane and they tried to get the mod to get other people to use spare _ get the mod to get other people to use spare capacity in vain. but nonetheless, it certainly feels like once again, downing street was economical with the facts with what boris _ economical with the facts with what borisjohnson did or didn't do when it came _ borisjohnson did or didn't do when it came to— borisjohnson did or didn't do when it came to pushing through authorisation for this airlift of the animals.— authorisation for this airlift of the animals. �*, ., ., ~ ., , the animals. let's look at the daily telea-rah, the animals. let's look at the daily telegraph, which _ the animals. let's look at the daily telegraph, which focuses _ the animals. let's look at the daily telegraph, which focuses on - the animals. let's look at the daily l telegraph, which focuses on national insurance and also has the same picture of borisjohnson in the back of his car. it's the same picture used by the independent — give me a chance to study the model of phone the prime minister is using, i've spent several minutes on and i can't work out if it's a flip phone or part of his seat belt. i've been trying to get into that this evening, given the fact that we don't have the sue gray, i had to do something. but nonetheless, this is a different angle from the telegraph which has been critical of its former employee.— which has been critical of its former employee. yes, this is another front _ former employee. yes, this is another front that _ former employee. yes, this is another front that the - former employee. yes, this is another front that the pm - former employee. yes, this is another front that the pm is i former employee. yes, this is - another front that the pm is really under pressure from, his mps, because he's seeing his backbenchers all the time, loads of things they are raising is things they don't like. for example, the rise of national insurance coming down in april. rishi sunak, the chancellor, is incredibly determined to push this rise through — not in the least because i think by and large, boris johnson is supportive of that, they see the nhs backlog which this rise is intended to fund as what is seen as the big crisis that could engulf the country and they want to tackle it. but of course, it's got consequences, it could potentially lead to higher prices and shops, it could lead to this wages spiral that other economists have warned about. so it's not an easy call, especially not when it would be a popular move amongst his mps to cancel it.- amongst his mps to cancel it. peter, those national _ amongst his mps to cancel it. peter, those national insurance _ amongst his mps to cancel it. peter, those national insurance rises - amongst his mps to cancel it. peter, those national insurance rises will. those national insurance rises will push up prices, and price rises amongst many countries including the us are becoming a real central issue, a cost—of—living issue which might affect how people vote, do you think? ., , ,, think? certainly downing street knows that _ think? certainly downing street knows that not _ think? certainly downing street knows that not that _ think? certainly downing street knows that not that long - think? certainly downing street knows that not that long ago i think? certainly downing street i knows that not that long ago when think? certainly downing street - knows that not that long ago when it forced _ knows that not that long ago when it forced through the national insurance rise, that was a big flagship — insurance rise, that was a big flagship statement from this government that it was prepared to make _ government that it was prepared to make hard — government that it was prepared to make hard decisions and address the social— make hard decisions and address the social care _ make hard decisions and address the social care crisis, which had been lingering — social care crisis, which had been lingering in— social care crisis, which had been lingering in governments of all stripes— lingering in governments of all stripes for nearly two decades now. but now _ stripes for nearly two decades now. but now as — stripes for nearly two decades now. but now as we hit this inflationary spike, _ but now as we hit this inflationary spike, it's— but now as we hit this inflationary spike, it's a— but now as we hit this inflationary spike, it's a really difficult one forjohnson because itjust makes him look— forjohnson because itjust makes him look weak. he was forced to climb _ him look weak. he was forced to climb down on the introduction of plan c, _ climb down on the introduction of plan c, which seemed to be in the pipe before — plan c, which seemed to be in the pipe before christmas. you remember recently— pipe before christmas. you remember recently there was a story that it would _ recently there was a story that it would be — recently there was a story that it would be the last bbc licence fee, then he _ would be the last bbc licence fee, then he was forced to climb down from _ then he was forced to climb down from that — then he was forced to climb down from that. asjessica says, he is under— from that. asjessica says, he is under pressure from mps who are getting _ under pressure from mps who are getting a — under pressure from mps who are getting a lot of worry from constituents about the cost of living — constituents about the cost of living coming down the tracks. this treasury— living coming down the tracks. this treasury committee report makes the point treasury committee report makes the ooint that— treasury committee report makes the point that this national insurance rise would increase inflationary pressure — rise would increase inflationary pressure on the system. there appears — pressure on the system. there appears to— pressure on the system. there appears to be less than forecast government borrowing, which fiscal studies _ government borrowing, which fiscal studies say will free up {12.9 billion, — studies say will free up {12.9 billion, perhaps the chancellor didn't— billion, perhaps the chancellor didn't think he would have that, which _ didn't think he would have that, which creates some wiggle room. i suspect— which creates some wiggle room. i suspect that actually, johnson will stand _ suspect that actually, johnson will stand his — suspect that actually, johnson will stand his ground on the national insurance — stand his ground on the national insurance increase — but what he will have — insurance increase — but what he will have to _ insurance increase — but what he will have to do something about is the cost _ will have to do something about is the cost of— will have to do something about is the cost of energy, because in terms of people's— the cost of energy, because in terms of people's wage packets and take—home pay, and discretionary spending. — take—home pay, and discretionary spending, it's those massive increases _ spending, it's those massive increases in energy bills that are really— increases in energy bills that are really going to cause trouble when the energy capital lifts in april. and therefore, i think he can get away— and therefore, i think he can get away with— and therefore, i think he can get away with the national insurance rise if— away with the national insurance rise if they do enough to smooth the bills rise if they do enough to smooth the hills of— rise if they do enough to smooth the bills of consumers, which will again be hit _ bills of consumers, which will again be hit hard — bills of consumers, which will again be hit hard by the energy price rise _ be hit hard by the energy price rise. , , , .., be hit hard by the energy price rise. ,, be hit hard by the energy price rise. , ,, .., ., be hit hard by the energy price rise. ,, ., ., rise. jessica, we will come to a sto in rise. jessica, we will come to a story in your — rise. jessica, we will come to a story in your paper— rise. jessica, we will come to a story in your paper later - rise. jessica, we will come to a story in your paper later in - rise. jessica, we will come to a story in your paper later in thisi story in your paper later in this edition. but what's it been like covering the story today, and what discussions have you had in the guardian about the way you cover this day of crisis after crisis? i this day of crisis after crisis? i thought there was quite a remarkable tone to the prime minister today when he pattered off a lot of critics. he pointblank said many times that he wouldn't resign — and i think that was meant to send a signal to his mps that he won'tjust resign, he won't go quietly, they'll have to take him out. we've got a story running tonight that we are expecting a new trench of letters to come in once the sue gray report comes in. there are pockets of conservative mps, perhaps older, wiser ones who didn't want to get involved in the early 2019 plot that was reported across — a week ago, it seems so long ago... but they've come under pressure from younger colleagues to act, those younger colleagues to act, those younger colleagues have been exposed. and i thinkjohnson needs to reconcile with a vote of no—confidence afterwards. it feels like there would be arrangements going on to try and shore up his support, it's aimed at winning a vote of no—confidence. there's 100 aimed at winning a vote of no—confidence. there's100 mps now involved in these whatsapp of support for the prime minister. i don't know about you, but i expected there to be more than that! if the prime minister was going to win one... he prime minister was going to win one... , ':~:: prime minister was going to win one... us: .,, one... he needs 180 to be safe in the no-confidence _ one... he needs 180 to be safe in the no-confidence vote. - one... he needs 180 to be safe in the no-confidence vote. let's - one... he needs 180 to be safe in the no-confidence vote. let's go | the no—confidence vote. let's go back to the daily telegraph, because in parliament, ukraine was mentioned a number of times, and the daily telegraph has on its front page this story. the stakes are increasing, peter, in ukraine, russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops, it denies any intentions to invade, we instead see president putin wanting to renegotiate the end of the cold war and the balance of power in europe. how do you see you're a's potential involvement? newspapers like to ut potential involvement? newspapers like to put these _ potential involvement? newspapers like to put these stories _ potential involvement? newspapers like to put these stories on - potential involvement? newspapers like to put these stories on the - like to put these stories on the front— like to put these stories on the front pages because there's a sense of~~~ _ front pages because there's a sense of~~~ we've — front pages because there's a sense of... we've talked about hundreds of troops, _ of... we've talked about hundreds of troops, we _ of... we've talked about hundreds of troops, we frequently deployed troops — troops, we frequently deployed troops to poland to create the tripwire, — troops to poland to create the tripwire, where you put enough nato troops _ tripwire, where you put enough nato troops close enough to the action to create _ troops close enough to the action to create a _ troops close enough to the action to create a bulwark. clearly if boudin moves _ create a bulwark. clearly if boudin moves into — create a bulwark. clearly if boudin moves into the ukraine, the main reprisais— moves into the ukraine, the main reprisals will be sanctions. my newspaper reports that ecb has asked a lot of— newspaper reports that ecb has asked a lot of the _ newspaper reports that ecb has asked a lot of the banks, to see where their— a lot of the banks, to see where their exposures might be if the most draconian— their exposures might be if the most draconian financial sanctions are taken, _ draconian financial sanctions are taken, for— draconian financial sanctions are taken, for example, cutting russia out of— taken, for example, cutting russia out of the — taken, for example, cutting russia out of the swift payment system. the front page _ out of the swift payment system. the front page of my newspaper, a couple f—16s. _ front page of my newspaper, a couple f—16s, polish f—16s over lithuania — there's— f—16s, polish f—16s over lithuania — there's clearly a very concerted effort _ there's clearly a very concerted effort to — there's clearly a very concerted effort to very publicly lay down to putin the — effort to very publicly lay down to putin the cost of action in ukraine. and the _ putin the cost of action in ukraine. and the troops are a symbolic part of that _ and the troops are a symbolic part of that. g ,, .., and the troops are a symbolic part ofthat. v and the troops are a symbolic part ofthat. 1, of that. jessica, let's bring ukraine back _ of that. jessica, let's bring ukraine back into - of that. jessica, let's bring ukraine back into the - of that. jessica, let's bring | ukraine back into the angle of that. jessica, let's bring . ukraine back into the angle of of that. jessica, let's bring - ukraine back into the angle of uk politics. it's been said in recent days that the prime minister really shouldn't be talking about these politics in the uk because of ukraine, some supporters saying you can't switch leaders when there's a conflict on — in 1990, the conservatives did just that in the run—up to the first gulf war, replacing thatcher with john run—up to the first gulf war, replacing thatcher withjohn major. how important is that ukraine democrat uk... how important is that ukraine democrat uk. . ._ how important is that ukraine democrat uk... ., . . democrat uk... someone much cleverer than me said — democrat uk... someone much cleverer than me said that _ democrat uk... someone much cleverer than me said that we _ democrat uk. .. someone much cleverer than me said that we never— democrat uk... someone much cleverer than me said that we never change - than me said that we never change leaders in a crisis, that's why we were led to world war ii by neville chamberlain. 0bviously were led to world war ii by neville chamberlain. obviously it happens, and i think one of the key points which one of my esteemed colleagues made on twitter in one of his columns is that british policy on ukraine is not particularly contested, it would be unlikely that our approach to this conflict with anyone else would be any different, we would still be requesting to deploy those troops who would say yes to it, taking the same approach in european capitals. and actually, that probably goes for keir starmer if he was in number ten, perhaps a small number of people lay to the left, there's not a great deal of around ukraine. so to say that people should be concentrating on this instead of parties — i think there is certainly a case to be made that if russian troops were to roll over the border on the day that the 54 over the border on the day that the 5a letters reached graham brady's inbox of no—confidence votes, there would be an argument for postponing that vote in a moment of actual crisis. but beyond that, downing street can't actually be any more distracted than it already is. let’s distracted than it already is. let's look at the _ distracted than it already is. let's look at the metro _ distracted than it already is. let's look at the metro newspaper which leads on the same story the bbc news at 10pm let on. "andrew: it's trial ijy at 10pm let on. "andrew: it's trial byjury." it is worth us saying that andrew has denied allegations made against him. peter, this is now a story we will see repeatedly, this civil case in new york? it becomes clear why the _ civil case in new york? it becomes clear why the palace _ civil case in new york? it becomes clear why the palace took - civil case in new york? it becomes clear why the palace took the - civil case in new york? it becomes clear why the palace took the view| clear why the palace took the view that prince — clear why the palace took the view that prince andrew had to fight this case as— that prince andrew had to fight this case as a _ that prince andrew had to fight this case as a private citizen, you know, it'll end _ case as a private citizen, you know, it'll end up— case as a private citizen, you know, it'll end up in— case as a private citizen, you know, it'll end up in one presumes a televised _ it'll end up in one presumes a televised trial byjury. the other side's _ televised trial byjury. the other side's lawyers have said bring it on, side's lawyers have said bring it on. we — side's lawyers have said bring it on, we look forward to our day in court _ on, we look forward to our day in court it— on, we look forward to our day in court it wiii— on, we look forward to our day in court. it will be an incredibly, intensely— court. it will be an incredibly, intensely high—profile trial, as you say, prince — intensely high—profile trial, as you say, prince andrew has always denied these _ say, prince andrew has always denied these allegations, he'll have to get around _ these allegations, he'll have to get around that photograph of him with his arm _ around that photograph of him with his arm around virginia giuffre. the email— his arm around virginia giuffre. the email that —