hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are broadcaster and psychotherapist lucy beresford and joe twyman, director of the polling organisation deltapoll. tomorrow's front pages, starting with... the guardian says borisjohnson is facing the most perilous 48 hours of his premiership, with sue gray's report into downing street lockdown parties due to be published. the same story makes the front page of the telegraph, which reports that borisjohnson is facing mounting pressure to publish sue gray's report in full. "the pm is in peril" — so says the i newspaper, which leads with the news that the police are to investigate the lockdown parties in number 10. the metro also leads with that investigation launched by the metropolitan police. it comes after the inquiry led by sue gray passed information to the force. and the financial times says borisjohnson is bracing himself for a survival fight, with sue gray's report expected to be scrutinised by his critics. so, let's begin. thank you both forjoining us this evening. plenty to go through and most of it to be honest is about borisjohnson, parties and the sucre report and the met office investigation so if i could start asking about the guardian saying these are going to be the most perilous 48 hours of portsjohnson poz and premiership. what do you think is going to happen over the next few days? it’s think is going to happen over the next few days?— next few days? it's been such a fast-moving — next few days? it's been such a fast-moving situation - next few days? it's been such a fast-moving situation for - next few days? it's been such a fast-moving situation for the i next few days? it's been such a - fast-moving situation for the whole fast—moving situation for the whole of today in terms of whether it's a great positive report will come out today or tonight or tomorrow. or maybe even delayed later this week but i think it's fair to say that very few people do actually know and what we can tell though and the headlines are really reinforcing this message which is that this is a real knife edge moment for the government and for borisjohnson in particular because not only in now is he having to wait for the release of sue great profit report but dane cressida dick announced today that the met would be investigating some of the material that has been passed to them by sue gray. so we have had so many parties and so many pieces of information that have appeared to wash over borisjohnson wave after wave that you cannot now but help feel that he might be hold below the water line because there is just only so many revelations that come out before somebody could actually be really seriously damaged. fix, lat be really seriously damaged. a lot ofthe be really seriously damaged. a lot of the reporting — be really seriously damaged. a lot of the reporting suggests that boris johnson's _ of the reporting suggests that boris johnson's team are very bullish about_ johnson's team are very bullish about their expectations although some _ about their expectations although some of— about their expectations although some of the papers talk about it being _ some of the papers talk about it being the — some of the papers talk about it being the most perilous 48 hours of boris _ being the most perilous 48 hours of borisjohnson and his premiership but i _ borisjohnson and his premiership but i think— borisjohnson and his premiership but i think that is perhaps wishful briefing _ but i think that is perhaps wishful briefing by some of the journalists involved~ — briefing by some of the journalists involved~ i— briefing by some of the journalists involved. i think that a lot has been put _ involved. i think that a lot has been put on this report with every government minister saying i'm waiting — government minister saying i'm waiting for this report, i'm waiting to see _ waiting for this report, i'm waiting to see what happens and indeed many backbenchers waiting to see what comes _ backbenchers waiting to see what comes out of it. but the news coming out of— comes out of it. but the news coming out of downing street appears to be that the government think they can survive _ that the government think they can survive this — that the government think they can survive this and boris johnson's top teams _ survive this and boris johnson's top teams that— survive this and boris johnson's top teams that they can use this as an opportunity to draw a line under events, — opportunity to draw a line under events, as — opportunity to draw a line under events, as an opportunity to reshuffle — events, as an opportunity to reshuffle the downing street team and perhaps to adopt a new start and hope that— and perhaps to adopt a new start and hope that everything will wash over. of course _ hope that everything will wash over. of course it — hope that everything will wash over. of course it remains to be seen if that can — of course it remains to be seen if that can actually be achieved or not _ that can actually be achieved or not we — that can actually be achieved or not. we don't know, nobody knows what _ not. we don't know, nobody knows what the _ not. we don't know, nobody knows what the contents of sue gray's report _ what the contents of sue gray's report will show. we do know how much _ report will show. we do know how much detail it will go into when we don't know— much detail it will go into when we don't know how much of the report will he _ don't know how much of the report will be released if there are ongoing _ will be released if there are ongoing police investigations for instance — ongoing police investigations for instance into incidents and not likely— instance into incidents and not likely to — instance into incidents and not likely to full details will be released around that. papers suggest up released around that. papers suggest up to eight— released around that. papers suggest up to eight events will be covered and what — up to eight events will be covered and what athletes prove they are further _ and what athletes prove they are further events have not been reported _ further events have not been reported in sue gray's works and what _ reported in sue gray's works and what does — reported in sue gray's works and what does that mean? a lot of complexity still to come. i was going — complexity still to come. i was going to — complexity still to come. i was going to say the fact remains that removing — going to say the fact remains that removing up her minister who does not want _ removing up her minister who does not want to— removing up her minister who does not want to leave is very difficult. let's _ not want to leave is very difficult. let's ignore — not want to leave is very difficult. let's ignore the daily telegraph because talking about the report being released potentially —— let's talk about the daily telegraph, the telegraph front page says pressure on johnson to telegraph front page says pressure onjohnson to release telegraph front page says pressure on johnson to release full telegraph front page says pressure onjohnson to release full report. this is basically the question of whether or not we will see the report in its entirety as many say we should do or whether or not we are going to see parts of it redacted or parts of it held back from the public. lucy, do you think the report should be released in full and when i say info i'm talking potentially as set in the article here statements, photographs, messages, things like that? yes. here statements, photographs, messages, things like that? yes, the tric thin messages, things like that? yes, the tricky thing is — messages, things like that? yes, the tricky thing is what _ messages, things like that? yes, the tricky thing is what would _ messages, things like that? yes, the tricky thing is what would have - messages, things like that? yes, the tricky thing is what would have in - tricky thing is what would have in the report released in full actually achieve because quite a lot of people have already made up their minds about what this report means particularly in terms of boris johnson's future. his critics will want to have as much information as possible and if anything is withheld, they will start to talk about whitewashing. alternate —— alternatively, you have about a people in particular of tory mps who may not be contemplating submitting a letter to sir graham brady in 1922 committee and they have gone on record as saying all i need to wait for the report by sue gray as if somehow it will be this defining holy grail document but we know psychologically around people who need to make really big decisions is that they can fall into the trap of something called redundant deliberation which is where you are constantly seeking more and more information, more and more clarification to sediment a perspective which in your gut you part of it a decision around. so i don't know whether actually all this material will change the dynamic or change the mood music around boris johnson. if it is redacted in any way or is not produced in full, the critics have a field day but as i say i don't actually with the full report will actually change opinion markedly. report will actually change opinion markedl ., report will actually change opinion markedl .g ., ~ ., ., report will actually change opinion markedl ., ., , markedly. joking ideal to see photographic— markedly. joking ideal to see photographic evidence - markedly. joking ideal to see photographic evidence of - markedly. joking ideal to see l photographic evidence of these parties that allegedly is out there? i think many of the british public will want — i think many of the british public will want as much evidence out there as possible _ will want as much evidence out there as possible so they can make up their— as possible so they can make up their own — as possible so they can make up their own mind but lucy is right. a lot has— their own mind but lucy is right. a lot has been— their own mind but lucy is right. a lot has been penned on this and it's unlikely— lot has been penned on this and it's unlikely that this will placate reattv — unlikely that this will placate really either side but i do think there's— really either side but i do think there's an _ really either side but i do think there's an important question about potentially prejudicing ongoing police — potentially prejudicing ongoing police investigations, so it may be that some — police investigations, so it may be that some part of the report is published redacted and then perhaps a commitment to publish a full report— a commitment to publish a full report may be in february, that has been _ report may be in february, that has been said — report may be in february, that has been said. but it depends on how lon- been said. but it depends on how long the — been said. but it depends on how long the police investigation takes and sometimes police investigations into governments such as investigations to tony blair can take _ investigations to tony blair can take over— investigations to tony blair can take over a year. so they perhaps will be _ take over a year. so they perhaps will be in — take over a year. so they perhaps will be in no — take over a year. so they perhaps will be in no rush to wait for that. do you _ will be in no rush to wait for that. do you think— will be in no rush to wait for that. do you think that there's time to wait for that right now given what's happening politically? i wait for that right now given what's happening politically?— happening politically? i think that vladimir putin _ happening politically? i think that vladimir putin will— happening politically? i think that vladimir putin will be _ happening politically? i think that vladimir putin will be sitting - happening politically? i think that vladimir putin will be sitting in i vladimir putin will be sitting in the kremlin laughing his head off if he is impact paying any attention to boris _ he is impact paying any attention to borisjohnson when he pauses he is impact paying any attention to boris johnson when he pauses for whatever— boris johnson when he pauses for whatever his to take a look at what's happening over here and he will be _ what's happening over here and he will be laughing at the counter that has been _ will be laughing at the counter that has been currently dominated politically by these events and as every _ politically by these events and as every week goes by the public are exposed _ every week goes by the public are exposed to another new piece of information that is damaging in one way and _ information that is damaging in one way and the government have to backtrack— way and the government have to backtrack and they say they are waiting — backtrack and they say they are waiting for a report on what happens when _ waiting for a report on what happens when report comes out but it's all a mess _ when report comes out but it's all a mess. and it's a mess they reflects very badly— mess. and it's a mess they reflects very badly notjust mess. and it's a mess they reflects very badly not just on the individual politicians and not just on individual political parties would — on individual political parties would on the political class in generat _ would on the political class in general. nearly two thirds we will say that— general. nearly two thirds we will say that they do not trust boris johnson — say that they do not trust boris johnson to tell the truth. that's not a _ johnson to tell the truth. that's not a great situation for any country— not a great situation for any country to be and when it comes to its ieader~ — country to be and when it comes to its leader. �* ., country to be and when it comes to its leader. �* . , ., ., its leader. and what is that due to the sake of _ its leader. and what is that due to the sake of the _ its leader. and what is that due to the sake of the country _ its leader. and what is that due to the sake of the country if - its leader. and what is that due to the sake of the country if the - the sake of the country if the majority of people as that poll suggests have trouble trusting their own leader? it’s suggests have trouble trusting their own leader? �* , , ., suggests have trouble trusting their own leader?— own leader? it's very hard for the electorate to _ own leader? it's very hard for the electorate to feel _ own leader? it's very hard for the electorate to feel that _ own leader? it's very hard for the electorate to feel that they - own leader? it's very hard for the electorate to feel that they are i electorate to feel that they are being heard and listened to and attended to by people they have elected. and it's also very hard for the people who have been elected to trust that the electorate will do anything that they wanted to do and i think for example heaven forbid that actually there was another wave of the pandemic whereby the government needed us to follow the rules for example, i think they would be finding it very hard for people to really follow them. we want to feel implicitly that we trust our leaders and this decline in trust is very poor for government functioning but also going forward in terms of people's sense of trust in terms of people's sense of trust in the democracy. but also it does also speak to how other people in other countries see us, how other leaders view us, and if they sense that there is a weak flank, and if they believe that actually our mind is distracted or that we have not got a united front because this speaks to what's happening in russia and ukraine, if there are countries who are distracted because they've got really big issues going on domestically, then that can play into notjust the hands of someone like putin but i'm also sure china looking over at what's happening in the west and thinking i don't need to worry about them because they are so disorganised and so disturbed. it's hard because in the telegraph article it says a string of supportive tory mps claimed that ousting mrjohnson would strengthen the hand of russia puppet president let him reboot and a summer say it was written the hand of russia and others are saying having a leader in place that has all this polemic surrounding them would actually do that as well. i surrounding them would actually do that as well-— that as well. i don't think either situation is _ that as well. i don't think either situation is anything _ that as well. i don't think either| situation is anything approaching ideat— situation is anything approaching ideal going into potentially the kind of— ideal going into potentially the kind of huge event that may be happening soon and ukraine. and so whether— happening soon and ukraine. and so whether borisjohnson happening soon and ukraine. and so whether boris johnson has to happening soon and ukraine. and so whether borisjohnson has to put up with continual no—confidence chemist regulation _ with continual no—confidence chemist regulation rather over a no—confidence vote or whether he actually _ no—confidence vote or whether he actually has to take part in a no—confidence vote, all of that could — no—confidence vote, all of that could be — no—confidence vote, all of that could be disruptive but of course 'ust could be disruptive but of course just in_ could be disruptive but of course just in terms of the international picture _ just in terms of the international picture but also in terms of the domestic— picture but also in terms of the domestic picture. we still although cases— domestic picture. we still although cases are _ domestic picture. we still although cases are falling, we still have the ornicron _ cases are falling, we still have the omicron variant costing a shadow over— omicron variant costing a shadow over everything. we still have a cost—of—living issue, we have inflation _ cost—of—living issue, we have inflation rising, we have lots of domestic— inflation rising, we have lots of domestic issues that need to be addressed and discussed and yet really— addressed and discussed and yet really for— addressed and discussed and yet really for the last month or so, the news _ really for the last month or so, the news has _ really for the last month or so, the news has been dominated by events in downing _ news has been dominated by events in downing street that are being reported, leaking out every week. the government wants to move on, but the question— the government wants to move on, but the question is does it deserve to given— the question is does it deserve to given that — the question is does it deserve to given that these questions reflect so badly upon them? the government wants to move — so badly upon them? the government wants to move on _ so badly upon them? the government wants to move on but _ so badly upon them? the government wants to move on but do _ so badly upon them? the government wants to move on but do you - so badly upon them? the government wants to move on but do you think- wants to move on but do you think that people are able to move on or do you think many people actually are just do you think many people actually arejust sick and do you think many people actually are just sick and tired now talking about parties? i are just sick and tired now talking about parties?— about parties? i think the electorate _ about parties? i think the electorate is _ about parties? i think the electorate is divided. - about parties? i think the i electorate is divided. there about parties? i think the - electorate is divided. there are those people who will have found the revelations about these parties touching a really raw nerve in a way that other political scandals have not really affected them. and i'm looking for a about the difference between people positive response to what happened in the ellen patterson socket which is quite complicated of a political story compared with this series of parties where people were able to compare and contrast how they have spent locked down and comparing it to how the elite appears to have or alleges they have behaved during lockdown. but of the same time you have a cohort of people who are prepared to get boris johnson or the government benefit of the doubt. they themselves perhaps think that there are many of us who were trying to do our best to run the rules but they were quite collocated and therefore maybe some of us made a misstep along the way. and of the same time they want to give borisjohnson and if you remit benefit of the data on the way they have handled the pandemic for example. and joe is right, there are these other things coming fast on the track in terms of things like the track in terms of things like the cost—of—living crisis but whilst we are still in what is hopefully the tail end of the pandemic, there i think will be some people who will still look to borisjohnson and its government and look at the things that did succeed in office and we for the most horrendous death rate probably the highest in europe but we have also had a really phenomenally successful vaccine implementation strategy. so there are still some people who are prepared to give him benefit of the doubt and prepared to give him benefit of the doubtand again prepared to give him benefit of the doubt and again that's why it's still unclear as to what or whether this will be the end game for boris johnson. it'sjust not this will be the end game for boris johnson. it's just not that clear cut. it's not clear cut in the electorate and is certainly not clear cut in the party. i think it might be easier if there was an obvious replacement candidate for borisjohnson, but all obvious replacement candidate for boris johnson, but all the obvious replacement candidate for borisjohnson, but all the while thatis borisjohnson, but all the while that is not the case, you're going to get a divided party as well as a divided country.— divided country. let's move on to the yorkshire _ divided country. let's move on to the yorkshire post _ divided country. let's move on to the yorkshire post and _ divided country. let's move on to the yorkshire post and look- divided country. let's move on to the yorkshire post and look at. divided country. let's move on to | the yorkshire post and look at the front page here. pm welcomes police investigation and this quoting an official spokesman for borisjohnson official spokesman for boris johnson saying that everyone required willfully required and anywhere they are asked but however he suggests if the prime minister does not believe that he has broken the law. so he really does not believe that he has broken the law whether or not he has is for the police to decide, but he has that strong belief within himself that what he has done and what is happened has been completely over and within regulations, let's say. over and within regulations, let's sa . . ., ., over and within regulations, let's sa , ~ ., ., ., over and within regulations, let's sa . . ., ., ., , , . say. would have to be expect the prime ministers _ say. would have to be expect the prime ministers spokesperson . say. would have to be expect the prime ministers spokesperson to | say. would have to be expect the - prime ministers spokesperson to say? can we _ prime ministers spokesperson to say? can we genuinely imagine a time when the prime _ can we genuinely imagine a time when the prime minister profit spokesperson or the prime minister himself— spokesperson or the prime minister himself stands up and says actually not sure. _ himself stands up and says actually not sure, mina broken the law, it's a little bit — not sure, mina broken the law, it's a little bit iffy and you know what it's like — a little bit iffy and you know what it's like go — a little bit iffy and you know what it's like. go to these parties, are they— it's like. go to these parties, are they a _ it's like. go to these parties, are they a party— it's like. go to these parties, are they a party or work event? who knows, — they a party or work event? who knows, who _ they a party or work event? who knows, who can tell, who dared to imagine? — knows, who can tell, who dared to imagine? will cooperate with the police? _ imagine? will cooperate with the police? well, i'm not sure, if they're — police? well, i'm not sure, if they're nice maybe but if they will be nasty, — they're nice maybe but if they will be nasty, if— they're nice maybe but if they will be nasty, if they will

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