dateline london. hello, and welcome to the second of our seasonal editions of dateline london. last weekend, we talked about the the past. traditionally this is the time when fortunes are told and predictions made. our three guests need no crystal ball to rub. they bring decades ofjudgement and journalism to the task of foretelling 2022. bronwen was foreign editor of the times newspaper and now leads the institute for government, making government better it hopes. marc is an economics journalist, and in studio with me is lyse doucet, bbc�*s chief international correspondent. thank you for coming again to talk about 2022. now let's begin, marc, with the economy and the global economy. unlike 2020 and 2021, we have a year now where it looks like everybody is going to be travelling and working again, pretty much. the global supply system is juddering, but it's functional. what are the challenges, do you think, that lie ahead in the year to come? the biggest challenge will be the rise of inflation and also the higher interest rate, which go together, which the central banks will decide they might be settled. because the outlook is quite murky on the supply side. of course you have a lot of bottlenecks — wage inflation, raw materials, construction, the ports, all the problems. and then you have high prices of energy, gas and electricity, due to geopolitical tension, due to problems of delivery which might be worse. and then on top of that you have, of course, problems with the public finances, because if you have higher inflation and a higher interest rate, the service of your debt, which is much bigger now because of covid and the help to the economy, will be much dearer. and then on the demand side, we don't know what consumers will do. will they continue to spend like they did because they used the savings accumulated during lockdown, or will they be more wary because of inflation and interest rates? and also, the other side is the problem of the crisis of the property, the real estate. because in the us and in the uk in particular, growth depends on consumption and real estate. and so all this makes it really difficult to predict. but whatever happens, unfortunately, there will be a bumpy ride. bronwen maddox, 2022, unlike the yearjust going, could be seen as a sort of a year in which perhaps it's not so much a matter of life and death, covid, but a matter of diminishing resources. because it is still taking up so much of our economic activity and obviously diverting it or displacing it, but also it's going to continue to be presumably a significant health challenge. i think that's right. squeezing out a lot of things, the sheer cost of dealing with covid. we've seen in the uk, where it's squeezing out the social care budget. that's the care mainly for the elderly. and the prime minister came in vowing to do something about this, and yet the pot of money that he put aside for this is almost entirely going to be squeezed up by the health service and indeed by coronavirus, much of it, squeezing out education as well and squeezing out lots of things. so i think we are seeing that pain on national finances as we've just been discussing, but i wonder if there could be just a bit more hope over inflation. we absolutely are seeing those pressures at the moment, but it's possible that some of those are going to prove quite short—lived. that has to be the hope — that some of the supply shortages we have seen exacerbated by coronavirus and by brexit, those will ease. that some of the pressures of coronavirus on that will ease, and some of the political things that have — pushed up energy prices will ease. and i think if you're going to look for hope, it's on the inflation side. but the national finances really are under strain, and coronavirus is, to be frank, squeezing out a lot. china, lyse, had obviously difficulties throughout 2021 as so many countries did, but it saw big benefits. the demand for chinese goods, in particular, from the rest of the world, not least from people in lockdown in the us in the early part of the year on their computers ordering away — big boost to demand. are there certain economic advantages that china will continue to enjoy in the coming year? well, as marc said, - is there any savings left to keep — pushing this demand? i think it'sjust the kind of pain you're seeing . streets and village shops — people, i consumers had hoped to recoup the losses of the last year - by bumper sales and time - for people to go out and shop, etc. instead they're being hit by another wave, | this time omicron, not sure exactly how long it will go on, will there be a lockdown. - all this creates - a lot of uncertainty. and of course, if you mention china, china unlike many- countries in the west - and indeed many countries around the world have decided to find ways to live _ with the virus, - mutations to the virus. china still has - a zero—covid policy. so if you have zero—covid, you have lockdowns, you have travel restrictions, _ which are not compatible trying to fire up the economy. - and of course, too, - there is the inter—nexus between — economics and politics as well. both in terms of china - and the us and the relationship between them, but if you'rej going to in china crack down on the captains of industryl and technology for a variety of reasons, that's not a great way for money to flow. - so as the year ends, - there are predictions that this huge chinese economy- actually could slow in 2022, which will have, as you began by hinting, hugs ramifications globally as well, and it will have political- repercussions as always. not least because china's huge demand for natural resources that kind of fires up so much of the economies around the world. can ijust pick up then, and can i use the s—word, because of some economists mentioned that during the course of the end of 2021 — stagflation? is it possible? because the word is virtually forgotten in the west, and is it conceivable that we could see stagflation? well, high inflation and low growth, of course, is a terrible situation that we haven't seen for 70 years. i don't think so. interest from inflation for sure will stay high. interest rates will go up. but the growth could really sort of take off, with the help of the government, despite the fact that there's not a lot of money left. and also maybe consumers will decide to spend and get into debt and that will get the economy rolling. so i don't think we'll be in stagflation like we were in the �*705. we'll rather have high inflation and uncertain growth. that's at least an optimistic note to begin the new year on. it's not hard to predict that a year from now in all probability, the british conservatives will still be in government. they'll be looking to their 13th year in power, whether in coalition or as a single party of government. i suppose the more interesting question is will borisjohnson still be leading them? i think yes. it's very hard to get rid of a conservative prime minister. it has been done, as we remember, and it can be done quite brutally, but it takes a lot of doing. and i don't get the sense right yet that the forces are massing that would get borisjohnson out. but the anger is massing right across the party. mps, party members, voters are really furious. if there's one thing that's cut through, it's the downing street christmas parties and the way that those have been presented. whether they happened, whether they didn't, who went — but the sense that the government was giving itself one set of rules and enforcing another set on the country. whatever the rights and wrongs of those particular incidents, that has landed with voters. and you have to ask yourself, if boris johnson hadn't chosen to contest the censuring on ethics grounds of owen paterson, one of his mps — former mps — whether all of this would've unfolded. but it has unfolded, and he's really got enormous difficulty in managing his party, even managing his cabinet. that said, i do think the forces are not yet there to get rid of him. and the policy challenges for the year ahead for him? well, coronavirus. and just in that one word, can he enforce — can he do the things that he thinks are right with a huge bit of his parliamentary party and his government saying either lock down more or don't lock down? so he's got that and he's got all kinds of economic challenges, and a really big ideological difference with his chancellor — never a good sign — over whether to spend more or begin to retrench and underpin conservatism in that way. he wants to get back to his agenda of levelling up, of doing more for parts of the country who feel left behind. but many of those constituencies will interpret that as spending much more money, and again his chancellor and many conservative conservatives don't want him to do that. and then there are lots of international challenges, whether it's complying with net—zero or deciding what relationship to have with europe, to have with france, resolving the ends of brexit, which are not resolved, what part to take in the european concern about migration, ukraine — the things that could justifiably use up his time are almost endless, but they start pretty close to home. marc, let's get to the thought of europe. i wonder are we moving, dare i say it, from frost to thaw now? lord frost went at the end of the year. in the new year the negotiations, when they resume after the new year holiday, are going to be led by liz truss, the foreign secretary, who was not originally a brexiteer, although she has become an enthusiast since brexit. is it possible with that, with people seeming to accept emmanuel macron winning a second term most likely in the elysee palace in the elections in the spring in france, that there could be an opportunity for a reset of the uk—eu relationship, and a more positive one? well, good riddance that frost is gone because he was hated in brussels. he was an ideologue. he was saying things in private and just the contrary in public. he was unemotional, he was a cold fish and absolutely loathed, even more than borisjohnson. so liz truss could do a lot to finish brexit because she's a pragmatist, ithink, and also there's a lot of goodwill on the europe side to solve the problem of northern ireland, fishing, migrants because europe wants to move on. you know, there will be a new french president. there's a new chancellor in germany. there are enormous challenges to be met, and brexit is at end of it. and it's not the problems we have that could derail finding an agreement. now, i'm not sure that macron will be re—elected, and that might be the problem. because if he faces in the second round valerie pecresse, the right wing choice, traditional right wing government, he will lose because part of the left will go on with pecresse because pecresse always had a social dimension. macron is hated by the left because he is perceived as a president of the rich. he's considered aloof and arrogant. so you could have president pecresse rather than president macron. so it's all about, as ever with french politics, who gets into that last—round playoff between the two top—placed candidates, assuming no candidate gets 50%. lyse, afghanistan is only the latest of the push factors that's helped contribute to migration. people flee a country that's perceived as being a failed state, and where many people fear the consequences, retribution from the taliban. do you think that the british government, borisjohnson, in the new year, in the light of afghanistan, will perhaps look if not with love towards international aid but perhaps with more pragmatic appreciation of its value to the british when you talk about issues like international migration and unwanted migration from the coast of france? to use the expression, | charity begins at home. what bronwen is saying — it's coronavirus that's - going to be on his mind. my goodness, he wishes it wasn't, but it is and it's i all over the front i pages of the paper. we had rishi sunak saying that it is possible - that the cuts to foreign spending that were put in place, down to 0.5% rather than 0.7% — - which is actually a legal requirement since 2015| in britain — he said we could i go back to our previous levels by 2024—2025, but it| was just a possibility. and, of course, - it was brought down, it was said, ostensibly - because of the fiscal pressure, because of the need to respond to the impact— of the coronavirus. but people are concerned about the fiddling, too, l about redefining foreign aid, | because there's a suggestion that it will also include, - for example, vaccine donations. it will also include - the currency transfers, the special drawing rights that britain gets as being part - of the international monetary fund. - and under this mantra of global britain, a lot of things get into it, most of all trade. i liz truss has been pushing for the trade deals. - that all gets subsumed, - it seems, under foreign aid. now, borisjohnson in his . boris johnson way has talked about that the united kingdom will continue to be _ a development superpower but yet, we heard from - the senate foreign relations committee in the house - of commons that global britain risks being a branding exercise| — in other words, a catchy title with little substance. and i will end by saying - you mentioned afghanistan — britain hasn't even i started the scheme — the resettlement scheme - for vulnerable afghans and it's struggling with the first - scheme, which is to provide safety and refuge to those who worked directly- with the british army i and british government. you know, you go to the website of the second scheme, _ it says it has not opened yet, so not a very good signal. . do you think that we will get a migrant deal, though, between the eu—france and the uk? are you more optimistic? after all, we got a deal on fishing in the end — rather low profile, nobody talked very much about it — but the rhetoric and the kind of confrontational rhetoric after that passed, they dealt with the practicalities of it — it might not be an ideal, but they did get some kind of settlement. wow. both sides of the channel, it doesn't look very good. i and as well, it's an - election year for macron. the telescope - is on borisjohnson. you have priti patel, - who's made it absolutely clear she wants to change the law, i even though we've had a court ruling saying that people are allowed to come. - even if they arrive i in dinghies, they are allowed to come. arrival is not a crime. entry, if they apply for asylum — they have the right - to apply for asylum. you know, if coronavirus — - the response to the coronavirus is the most difficult, - painful thing for governments, britain and europe, migration is one of the most— toxic issues. and even those who try to take a moral high ground _ against hungary and poland — actually, we saw with - the pushback in greece - against — that a lot of them are saying, "well, could - you please do our work for us? "we don't want to take..." it's a tough, tough issue - and a very, very toxic public issue as well, even though the needs are massive. . and the economy could use — the studies are there — - the economy could usel an injection of talented, educated, hard—working migrants — if they meet| the qualification to be here. now, let's end this edition of dateline — and normal business will resume next week, looking at the week that's been — looking at the year ahead. you can range freely and widely. let's start with bronwen. what's 2022 hold ? what are you focusing on and what do you think we should be focusing on? i'm almost tempted to say — to make no predictions because inaudible just how they'd barely last l a week, if that. i'm going cautiously to hope that this is the year that coronavirus lifts. that we begin to realise that we've got enough vaccines, the ability to make new vaccines, the ability to sell or share them with the world, that it begins to feel under control, that it has been a deflating end to the year to realise that we're not quite there. do you think — i mean, there was a lot of talk in 2021 about a global pandemic treaty and it seemed to ebb and flow according to the international crises of covid. i mean, it was there in the g7 deal in the summer, and then it appeared again, we talked about it and hardly mentioned it, and then it was suddenly being talked about again when omicron appeared on the scene. do you get a sense that there is a desire from some kind of proper global engagement on this public health issue, if nothing else? there has been more movement on global treaties than you might think. in some corners on fish, on, to some extent, on climate change. i think this one will be more done in bits and pieces, but i do think there is a lot of impetus there for it to be done, whether out of naked self—interest as countries realise that they are vulnerable until the whole world is safer, or out of philanthropy and generosity. but i think if not as grandly formed as a great global treaty, there will be a lot more international effort on this than there has been. marc, what about europe in 2022? it's a vast continent — 50—odd — 50—plus countries, at least as far as the world health organization defines it — i think nearly 58 countries it counts as european beyond just the european union — but a very kind of mixed picture in europe, isn't it, in terms of notjust dealing with covid, but the challenges the continent faces? well, the big challenges are, of course, migration, which were discussed on the programme, but i think it's more the fact that the european union has to find a new way of existing. you know, now that britain is out and there's been agreement on brexit, ifind the european union has to think at itself what it is going to be. will it be a confederation? will it become a federation? will there be more power in brussels, less power? what about the region? what about separatism ? what about the no respect of law by countries like poland and hungary? i mean, those are important issues. so i think — and hope — that in 2022, the eu will start thinking what it wants to be for the next decade. it's an intriguing thought, lyse, isn't it, because i got the sense as 2021 developed more and as we came towards the end of the year that some of what you might call the unfinished business of the soviet era was presenting itself again. we were talking again at the end of the year about relations between russia and ukraine. we were reminded of the fact yet again that belarus, on the eu border could, if it wanted to, could cause the eu really serious problems... it already is! ..over the migration issue. we have people talking who know about the balkans, warning about an unsettled picture again there. it's almost as if a kind of political challenge that we thought — or rather the economic challenge which we thought had been done. we got liberalisation and replaced the old soviet system, but the politics never quite got resolved. could it — could any of this develop significantly in 2022, do you think? well, it is the 30th - anniversary of the collapse of the soviet union - and president putin has been waxing lyrical, nostalgicallyl and with anger about the fact that he wished that it had never happened. j this is going to be a testing time. . the — president biden's — - the american — the american withdrawal from afghanistan — we understood why it had - to happen, that for the troops had to come after 20 years, l the rest of the nato forces, . but how it was done and how it resulted in a taliban takeover — a reversal of what had - happened 20 years earlier- which had caused the us to go in in the first place — has raised questionsj about american commitment. we will have the pressures, i you know, more than 100,000 russian troops massing along ukraine. - you have sabre—rattling i between china and taiwan. so, there is a lot - of unfinished business and american credibility- is going to be put on the spot just when joe biden wants i to focus on build back better at home, the impact- of the coronavirus, political challenges. and so, these are issues - which are not going to go away — in fact, quite the opposite. they may actually raise their head. i but since you talked about it, i do want to say that we're i talking about the coronavirus which has been knocking - all of us sideways — - don't forget climate change, which has shown us to have the power. | in my country, canada, - fires have burned entire towns to the ground. we saw the tornado sweeping through six states in the us. i a whole town centre - in kentucky was wiped away by the force of nature. climate change as well as - the coronavirus are going to be these global problems - which need global solutions and yet again, we'll be asking are world leaders up - to the task of working together in making the sacrifices- in order to find the solutions that not only their own - countries and people needl but the entire world needs. and don't forget the iran nuclear deal — that's - going to back on the agenda next year. . it already is creeping back. it's going to be on the agenda. let me bring bronwen back in on some of those thoughts. was there anything you just want to flag up there, bronwen? i think that was exactly right. i inaudible about the iran | nuclear deal as coming that could take a distinct turn for the better and if it did — if something did happen on that, i thin yeah. the threat is that it won't. i think we're looking | at possibly into 2022 is a world without the iran nuclear deal of 2015. - president trump . pulled out in 2018. he came back to power — - president biden came to power, saying he wanted to return, i the iranians say they wanted to return, even with _ the new conservative president raisi, but it's now a matter. of weeks that people are now talking on both sides — i both the iranians who are enriching uranium up- to over 60%, even though they were under — _ it was supposed to be under 4% under the terms of. the iran nuclear deal — which limited their nuclear programme in exchange . for sanctions relief. if they don't get the sanctions | relief, they're not going to go back into the deal. and the united states i is also looking at a world without the deal, even though it wants one. l and all the drumbeat- from israel, saying "is there going to be a military strike?" well, that's not the most uplifting note to end on but probably appropriate as the year turns. lyse doucet, bronwen maddox, marc roche, thank you all very much for your company throughout 2021 and into 2022. wherever you've been this new year weekend, we hope you've enjoyed it. there's more dateline in the usual slot at the usual time next weekend. until then, from all of us on the programme, goodbye. hello there. after the record temperatures at new year's eve and new year's day, the week ahead is going to feel very different. it is turning colder. nothing exceptionally cold — just the sort of weather we should be getting really at this time of the year. and the first signs of that colder air arrives in northern scotland by the morning, follows a band of wet weather that will continue to move its way southwards. ahead of that for much of the uk it is a mild start. and for england and wales there'll be some sunshine, and a few blustery showers too. that band of wet weather moves southwards across scotland, a little sleet and snow in the hills, it turns wetter across northern ireland, some rain arrives into the far north of england. and to the north of that with the northerly wind the air is getting colder. but across most of england and wales we've got one more day of mild weather with temperatures in double figures. but instead of the southerly winds that brought those high temperatures over the new year, it's a northerly wind that's going to come pushing down across the whole of the country and drag that colder air southward as well. with the clearer skies developing overnight we're going to have a frost i think, in scotland. in northern parts of england, perhaps northern ireland on tuesday morning. and because the air�*s getting colder those showers in northern scotland are turning more to snow even to low levels as well. but it's over the higher level routes that there's going to be some blizzards and drifting with gales or severe gales. we've still got the last of the milder and damp weather to clear away early on tuesday. then we're all in the colder air, cold northerly wind, a few wintry showers coming into some of the western parts of the uk. and of course it will feel much colder. and those temperatures can be quite a shock to the system to the system when you consider how mild it has been of late. we start with a little more frost more widely, i think, on wednesday. those cold winds will tend to ease down, those wintry showers will move away, most places will turn dry and quite sunny. it's still on the chilly side although these temperatures are near normal really for this time of year. and it will get cold very quickly during wednesday evening, wednesday night, ahead of the next weather system that's sweeping in from the atlantic. that will bring with it some stronger winds as it's moving into colder air, could be a bit of snow for a while, particularly in the hills in scotland. then that band of wet weather continues to work its way eastward through the day. it'll be followed by some sunshine and showers. some strong and gusty winds around as well, could make double figures in the south. but no signs of anything any warmer across northern parts of the uk. this is bbc news. welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm david eades. our top stories: one of the world's leading conservationists, richard leakey, who helped prove that humans evolved in africa, has died aged 77. thousands protest against the military regime in sudan. the prime minister resigns, urging coup leaders to return to democracy. america's top covid expert, anthony fauci, warns there is a danger of a surge in people needing hospital treatment. a huge fire destroys south africa's national assembly. a man is charged with arson. this is a very sad day for our democracy, because parliament is the home of our democracy. and we'll be finding out why so many people live to 100