hello, and welcome to the second of our seasonal editions of dateline london. last weekend, we talked about the the past. traditionally this is the time when fortunes are told and predictions made. our three guests need no crystal ball to rub. they bring decades ofjudgement and journalism to the task of foretelling 2022. bronwyn was foreign editor of the times newspaper and now leads the institute for government, making government better it hopes. marc is an economics journalist, and in studio with me is lyse doucet, bbc�*s chief international correspondent. thank you for coming again to talk about 2022. now let's begin with the economy and the global economy. unlike 2020 and 2021, we have a year now where it looks like everybody is going to be travelling and working again pretty much, the global supply system is juddering, but it's functional. what are the challenges you think that lie ahead in the year to come? the biggest challenge will be the rise of inflation and also the higher interest rate, which go together, which the central banks will decide they might be settled. because the outlook is quite murky on the supply side. of course you have a lot of bottlenecks, wage inflation, raw materials, construction, the ports, all the problems. and then you have high prices of energy, gas and electricity, due to geopolitical tension, due to problems of delivery which might be worse. and then on top of that, you have, of course, problems with the public finances because if you have higher inflation and higher interest rates, the service of your debt which is much bigger now because of covid and the help to the economy will be much higher. and then on the demand side, we don't know what consumers will do. will they continue to spend like they did because they used savings accumulated during lockdown, or will they be more wary because of inflation and interest rates? and also the other side is the problem of the crisis of the property, the real estate. because in the us and in the uk in particular, growth depends on consumption and real estate. all this makes it really difficult to predict, but whatever happens, unfortunately, there will be a bumpy ride. bronwyn, 2022, unlike the year just going, could be seen as a sort of a year in which perhaps it's not so much a matter of life and death, covid, but a matter of diminishing resources because it is still taking up so much of our economic activity and obviously diverting it or displacing it, but also it's going to continue to be presumably a significant health challenge. i think that's right. squeezing out a lot of things, the sheer cost of dealing with covid. i think we've seen in the uk, it's squeezing out the social care budget, that's the care for the elderly and also the prime minister came in vowing to do something this and yet the pot of money that he put aside for this is almost entirely going to be squeezed up by the health service and indeed by coronavirus, much of it, squeezing out education as well and squeezing out lots of things. so i think we are seeing that pain on national finances as we've just been discussing, but i wonder if there could be just a bit more hope over inflation. we absolutely have seen those pressures of the moment, but it's possible that some of those are going to prove quite short—lived. that has to be the hope that some of the supply shortages we have seen exacerbated by coronavirus and by brexit, those will ease. that some of the pressures of coronavirus on that will ease and some of the political things that have pushed up energy prices will ease, and i think if you are going to look for hope, it's on the inflation side, but the national finances really are under strain and coronavirus is, to be frank, squeezing out a lot. china, and it had obviously difficulties throughout 2021 as so many countries did, but it saw big benefits. the demand for chinese goods, in particular, from the rest of the world, not least people in lockdown in the us in the early part of the year on their computers ordering away, big boost to demand. are there certain economic advantages that china will continue to enjoy in the coming year? as marc said, is there any savings left to keep - pushing this demand? i think the kind of pain- you are seeing on high streets and village shops with people, i consumers had hoped to recoup the losses of the last year by bumper sales and timej for people to go out and shop, | etc, and instead they are being hit by another wave, - this time omicron, not sure exactly how long it will go on, will there be a lockdown - and all this createsl a lot of uncertainty. and of course if you mention china, china unlike many- countries in the west - and indeed many countries around the world have decided to find ways to live _ with the virus, mutation i to the virus, china still has a zero—covid policy, - so if you have zero covid, you have lockdown, restrictions |which are not compatible trying to fire up the economy. and of course too there - is the inter—nexus between economics and politics as well. both in terms of china - and the us and the relationship between them, but if you are going to crack down l on the captains of industryl and technology for a variety of reasons, that's not a great way for money to flow. - so there are predictions - that this huge chinese economy actually could slow in 2022, i which will have as you began by hinting ramifications globally as well and it i will have political- repercussions as always. not least because china's huge demand for natural resources that kind of fires up so much of the economies around the world. can ijust pick up then and can i use the s—word because of some economists mentioned that during the course of the end of 2021, stagflation? is it possible? because of the word is virtually forgotten in the west and is it conceivable that we could see stagflation? well, high inflation and low growth, of course, is a terrible situation that we have not seen for 70 years. i don't think so. interest from inflation for sure will stay high and will go up, but the growth could really sort of take off. with the help of the government by the fact that there's not a lot of money left. it also may be consumers will decide to spend and get into debt and that will get the economy rolling. so i don't think we'll be in stagflation like we were in the 19705. we would rather have high inflation and uncertain growth. that's at least an optimistic way to look at the new year. it's not hard to predict that a year from now in all probability that british conservatives will still be in government. they'll be looking to their 13th year in power whether in coalition or as a single party of government. i suppose the more interesting question is will borisjohnson still be leading them? i think yes. it's very hard to get rid of a conservative prime minister. it has been done, as we remember, and it can be done quite brutally, but it takes a lot of doing. and i don't get the sense right yet that the forces are massing to get borisjohnson out. but the anger is massing right across the party, mps, party members, voters are really furious. if there's one thing that's cut through, it's the downing street christmas parties and the way that those have been presented. whether they happened, whether they didn't and who went, but the sense that the government was giving itself one set of rules and enforcing another set on the country. whatever the rights and wrongs of those particular incidents, that has landed with voters. and you have to ask yourself if borisjohnson had not chosen to contest the censuring on ethics grounds of owen paterson, one of his mps, former mps, whether all this would've unfolded. but it has unfolded and he has really got enormous difficulty in managing his party, even managing his cabinet. that said, i do think the forces are not yet there to get rid of him. and the policy challenges for the year ahead for him? well, coronavirus, and just in that one word, can he enforce and do the things that he thinks are right with a huge bit of his parliamentary party and his government saying either lock down or don't lock down? so he's got that and he's got all kinds of economic challenges and a really big ideological difference with his chancellor, never a good sign, of whether to spend more or begin to retrench and underpin the conservatives in that way. he wants to get back to his agenda of levelling up, of doing more for parts of the country who feel left behind, but many of those constituencies will interpret that as spending much more money and again his chancellor and many conservative conservatives don't want him to do that and then there are lots of international challenges, whether it's complying with net zero or deciding what relationship to have with europe, to have with france, resolving the ends of brexit which are not resolved, what part to take in the european concern about migration, ukraine, things that could justifiably use up his time are almost endless but they start pretty close to home. let's get to the thought of europe. i wonder are we moving from frost to thawed now? lord frost has went at the end of the year. in the new year, the negotiations when they resume after the new year holiday are going to be led by liz truss, the foreign secretary, who was not originally a brexiteer, but she has become enthusiastic since brexit. is it possible with that, with people seeming to accept emmanuel macron winning a second term most likely in the elysee palace in the elections in the spring in france, that there could be an opportunity for a reset of the uk—eu relationship and a more positive one. well, good riddance that frost is gone because he was hated in brussels and was an ideologue and said one thing in private and just the contrary in public. he was unemotional, he was a cold fish and loathed even more than borisjohnson. so liz truss could do a lot to finish brexit because she's a pragmatist, ithink, and also there's a lot of goodwill on the europe side to solve the problem of northern ireland, fishing, migrants because europe wants to move on. you know, there will be a new french president, there is a new chancellor in germany, there are enormous challenges to be met, and brexit is at end of it. and it's not the problems we have that could derail finding an agreement. now i'm not sure that macron will be re—elected, and that might be the problem. because if he faces pecresse in the second round, the right wing choice, traditional right wing government, he will lose because part of the left will go on with pecresse because precresse always had a social dimension and macron is hated by the left because he is perceived as a president of the rich. he is considered aloof and arrogant. so you could have president pecresse rather than president macron. so it's all about as ever with french politics who gets into that last round playoff between the two top placed candidates, assuming no candidate gets 50%? afghanistan is only the latest of the push factors that's helped contribute to migration, people flee a country that's perceived as being a failed state and women fear the consequences, retribution from the taliban. do you think that the british government, borisjohnson, in the new year, in the light of afghanistan, will perhaps look if not with love towards international aid but perhaps with more pragmatic appreciation of its value to the british when you talk about issues like international migration and unwanted migration from the coast of france? to use the expression i charity begins at home. what bronwyn is saying, - it's coronavirus is going to be on his mind. my goodness, he wishes it wasn't, but it is and it's i au ove— the front pages of the paper. we had rishi sunak saying that it is possible - that the cuts to foreign - spending that were put in place down to 0.5% rather than 0.7% — which is actually a legal - requirement since 2015 in britain — he said - we could go- back to our previous levels by 2024—25, - but it was just a possibility. and, of course, it was brought down, it was said, ostensbilyl because of the fiscal pressure, i because of the need to respond to the impact - of the coronavirus. but people are concerned about the fiddling, too — i about redefining foreign aid — because there's a suggestion| that it will also include, - for example, vaccine donations. it will also include - the currency transfers, the special drawing rights britain gets as being part| of the international monetary fund. - and under this mantra of global britain, a lot of things get into it, most of all trade. i liz truss has been pushing for the trade deals. - that all gets subsumed, - it seems, under foreign aid. now, borisjohnson in his . boris johnson way has talked about that the united kingdom will continue to be _ a development superpower, but yet, we heard _ from senate foreign relations committee in the house - of commons that global britain risks being a branding. exercise — in other words a catchy title with little substance. i and i will end by saying - you mentioned afghanistan — britain has not even started i the scheme, the resettlement scheme for vulnerable - afghans and it's struggling with the first scheme, i which is to provide safety and refuge to those who work directly with the british army| and british government. you know, you go to— the website, the second scheme, it says has not opened yet, so not a very good signal. i do you think we will get a migrant deal, though, between the eu—france and the uk? are you more optimistic? after all, we got a deal on fishing in the end — on the low profile and nobody talked very much about it — but the rhetoric and the kind of confrontational rhetoric after that past, they dealt with the practicalities of it, it might not be ideal, but they did get some kind of settlement. wow, both sides of the channel, it does not look very good - and it's an election year. for macron, the telescope is on borisjohnson,| you have priti patel, who has made it absolutely clear she wants to change i the law, even though we have had a court ruling saying - that people are allowed to come even if they arrive _ in dinghies, they are allowed to come, arrival is not- a crime, entry if they apply for asylum they have the right to apply for asylum. _ you know, if coronavirus — - the response to the coronavirus is the most difficult, painful thing for- governments, britain - and europe, migration is one of the most toxic issues. and even those who try to take a moral high ground _ against hungary and poland —| actually, we saw with the push back in greece against, - that a lot of them are saying "could you please i do our work for us? "we don't - want to take..." it's a tough, tough issue - and a very toxic, public issue as well even though . the needs are massive. and the economy could use — the studies are there — - the economy could usel an injection of talented, educated, hard—working migrants l if they meet the qualifications l to be here. now, let's end this edition of dateline — and normal business will resume next week looking at the week that's been — looking at the year ahead. you can range freely and widely. let's start with bronwyn. what's 2022 hold ? what are you focusing on and what do you think we should be focusing on? i'm almost tempted to say to make no predictions because just how they won't last a week if that. i'm going cautiously to hope that this is the year that coronavirus lifts, that we begin to realise that we've got enough vaccines, the ability to make new vaccines, the ability to sell or share them with the world, that it begins to feel under control, that it has been a deflating end to the year to realise that we are not quite there. do you think — i mean, there was a lot of talk in 2021 about a global pandemic treaty and it seemed to ebb and flow according to the international crises of covid—19. it was there in the g7 deal in the summer, and then it appeared again, we talked about it and then hardly mentioned it,and then suddenly being talked about again when 0micron appeared on the scene. do you get a sense that there is a desire from some kind of proper global engagement on this public health issue, if nothing else? there has been more movement on global treaties than you might think. inaudible to some extent - on climate change, i think this will be more done in bits and pieces, but i do think there is a lot of impetus there for it to be done whether out of self—interest of those countries realise they are vulnerable until the whole world is safer or out of philanthropy and generosity. but i think if not as grandly formed as a great treaty, there will be a lot more international effort on this than there has been. marc, wchat about europe in 2022? it's a vast continent — 50—odd — 50—plus countries, at least as far as the world health organization defines it — i think nearly 58 countries it counts as european beyond just the european union — but a very kind of mixed picture in europe, isn't it, in terms of notjust dealing with covid, but the challenges the continent faces? well, the big challenges are, of course, migration, which were discussed on the programme, but i think it's more the fact that the european union has to find a new way of existing. you know, now that britain is out and the agreement on brexit, ifind the european union has to think at itself what it is going to be. will it be a confederation, will it become a federation, will there be more power in brussels or less power? what about the region? what about separatism ? what about the no respect of law by countries like poland and hungary? i mean, those are important issues. so i think — and hope — that in 2022, the eu will start thinking what it wants to be for the next decade. it's an intriguing thought, lyse, isn't it, because i got the sense as 2021 developed more and we came towards the end of the year, that some of what you might call the unfinished business of the soviet era was presenting itself again. we were talking again at the end of the year about relations between russia and ukraine and we were reminded of the fact yet again that belarus on the eu border if it wanted to could cause the eu really serious problems. it already is! we have people talking who know about the balkans and warning about an unsettled picture again there. it's almost as if a kind of political challenge that we thought — or rather than economic challenge which we thought had been done. we got liberalisation and replaced the old soviet system, but the politics never quite got resolved. could it — could any of this develop significantly in 2022? this is the 30th anniversary| of the collapse of the soviet union and president putin has been waxing lyrical, _ nostalgically and with anger. about the fact that he wished that it had never happened. this is going to be a testing time. . the — president biden's — the american withdrawall from afghanistan — - we understood why it had to happen and for the troops had to come after 20 years, | the rest of the nato forces, . but how it was done and how it resulted in a taliban take i over, a reversal of what had happened 20 years earlier which cost the us to go i in in the first place, i has raised questions about american commitment. we will the pressures, - you know, more than 100,000 russian troops massing along ukraine _ you have sabre rattling - between china and taiwan. so, there is a lot - of unfinished business and american credibility is going to be put - on the spot just when joe biden wants to focus on build - back better at home, - the impact of the coronavirus, political challenges. and so, these are issues| which are not going to go away — in fact, - quite the opposite. they may actually raise their head. i but since you talked about it, i i do want to say that we talked about the coronavirus which has been knocking all of us - sideways — don't forget climate change, which has shown us. to have the power inl my country, canada — fires have _ burned entire towns to the ground. we saw the tornado sweeping through six states in the us. i a whole town centre in kentucky was wiped away by the force - of nature. climate change as well as the coronavirus - are going to be these global problems which need globalj solutions and yet again, - we will be asking, "are world leaders up to the task - of working together in making the sacrifices in order to find the solutions that not - only their own countries - and people need but the entire world needs?" and don't forget the iranl nuclear deal — that will be back on the agenda next year. it is already coming back - but it will be on the agenda. let me bring bronwyn back on some of those thoughts — is there anything you want to flag up there? i think that was exactly right. | inaudible the iran nuclear. deal is coming that could take a distinct turn for the better and if it did happen on that, very much. yeah. the threat is that it won't. i think we're looking - at possibly in 2022 is a world without the iran - nuclear deal of 2015. president trump . pulled out in 2018. he came back to power, . saying he wanted to return and the iranians said - they wanted to return even with the new conservative president raisi, but it's . now a matter of weeks that people are now talking on both sides — both the iranians who are - enriching uranium up to over- 60% even though they were under 4% under the terms of the iran nuclear deal, which limited - their nuclear programme | in exchange for sanctions relief. if they don't get - the sanctions relief, they will not go back into the deal. - and the us also looks at a world without the deal, even though it wants one. l and all the drumbeat- from israel, saying "is there going to be a military strike?" well, not the most uplifting note to end of a probably appropriate as the year turns. thank you all very much for your company throughout 2021 and into 2022. wherever you've been this new year weekend, we hope you've enjoyed it. there is more dateline in the usual slot at the usual time next weekend. until then, from all of us, goodbye for now. hello. it's been an unusually warm start to the brand new year. not only did new year's day bring us the warmest start to a january morning on record, the temperature overnight didn't drop below 13.2 celsius at chivenor in devon, but we also picked up our warmest new year's day on record — the temperature above 16 degrees in london. and it wasn'tjust here in the uk that experienced an exceptional warmth — that's been across much of europe, as you can see by these yellow and amber colours. record—breaking for some but a change as colder air pushes in through next week to something much more akin to january — even the return of snow for some. no snow, though, to start sunday morning. it will be a little bit chilly across parts of north east scotland but elsewhere, a very mild start and some heavy downpours to begin with across the eastern half of england. quickly gets out of the way, then lots of sunshine through much of the day. a few showers in the west which will become more extensive and frequent as we go through the morning, some of those becoming heavy with hail and thunder, particularly lively, though, through wales, the south—west, pushing towards the midlands and central southern england for the afternoon. some eastern areas will stay dry, though, after that morning rain until later on, but a blustery day across the board. not quite as windy in western scotland, though, as we saw on new year's day. temperature—wise, down a little bit on new year's day values but still significantly above where we'd normally expect this stage in january. so, some heavy rain, then, into sunday evening, spreading across the eastern half of england. that clears through. a few showers through the night and into monday morning. most of those, though, will be across parts of scotland and northern ireland, and they could start to turn a bit wintry across the far north of scotland as colder air tries to edge its way in. and that's all to the north of this weather front. that's going to be slowly pushing its way southwards through monday. at the same time, an approaching one into the south—west. in between those two areas, a lot of dry weather for england and wales on monday — a bank holiday for many — just one or two showers. cold and wintry showers spreading into the north of scotland. the dividing line between that cold air, though, by the end of the day will be lying somewhere across northern ireland, southern scotland, northern england. outbreaks of rain and that, a wet end to the day for those in around the english channel. that low will clear through and as it does so, monday night into tuesday, the cold air floods its way southwards and it will be a much chillier day. in fact, we could see some pretty frequent snow showers in the north of scotland and strengthening winds which could cause problems later on tuesday and into wednesday. but the upshot is for all of us, temperatures much lower next week. as you can see here, from a selection of towns and cities from the four nations, temperatures in single figures and, as i said, a bit of snow for some of you. welcome to bbc news — i'm simon pusey. our top stories: south africa's president leads funeral tributes to archbishop desmond tutu — calling him the nation's moral compass. archbishop desmond tutu was, without question, a crusader in the struggle forfreedom, for justice, for equality and for peace. covid cases continue to surge across europe. we will report on how the uk health service is being put under increased pressure. the virus still causes major disruption for travellers worldwide. thousands more flights have had to be cancelled. and going for a dip. why do so many people like to get wet on new year's day?

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