correspondent and deputy news editor at the la times. polly toynbee is a veteran columnist on the left—of—centre guardian newspaper. and simonjack, the bbc�*s business editor, is here in the studio. good to see you, simon, and good to have you bothjoining us from parts around the uk while we maintain all our social distancing forjust that little bit longer, as a result of what's happening at the moment. let's begin in downing street, who have been having a week they'd rather forget. three things may explain why. a newspaper published a photo of a christmas party last year held in the basement of borisjohson�*s party headquarters, at a time when all such activities were against the law. the uk's leading civil servant, the cabinet secretary, was investigating "gatherings" inside downing street, one of them in the prime minister's own flat — at least he was. it turns out his office organised what it called a christmas party, too. on tuesday, the imposition of covid vaccine certficates, which have become a condition of entry to public venues, provoked the biggest rebellion of borisjohnson�*s premiership. 100 mps — that's half of all those conservatives who aren't part of what's known as the payroll vote, like ministers — opposed him. 0n the most important question of the day, and on hisjudgment of how to keep the public safe, it appears they do not trust him. nor, if the result announced in the early hours of friday morning in a parliamentary by—election, do some voters. polly toynbee, i can imagine them singing choruses, that was the week that was. it's over, let it go, in downing street and in boris johnson's flat. it rather sounded as if that was the prime minister's position. because he sort of said, "well, look, there was a lot "of stuff in the headlines, and that got in the way doing "for them in doing things that will improve their lives. "were the voters blinded by the stuff people were the voters blinded by the stuff people like you and otherjournalists have been putting in front of them? well, i think its traditional that politicians blame the media for bad stories they've created themselves. he's had one worst week after another for about the last six weeks, culminating in a catastrophic by—election yesterday. it would be hard to compile as many disasters as have struck him, and most of them are things that he himself has done. he said, "i take responsibility for the result," bad results and growing unpopularity, but then he refused to actually take responsibility for anything in particular. but, you know, one thing after another at a time of great hardship in this country, where the economy, people are really feeling the pinch, where covid is very threatening to everybody�*s way of life, and his own party is in absolute rebellion and some chaos. and his own party very much out of kilter with the public. the public are much more worried about being cautious about covid restrictions. we have a party that's very libertarian and thinks any restriction is... you know, they were comparing it to stalin and hitler, very, very modest regulations. so, the party itself is somewhat out of control, notjust borisjohnson himself. henry, all prime ministers have difficult periods. some are able to bring themselves back from those and after a few months or years, everyone has almost forgotten because by the time of the next election, they've got themselves back into public favour. i mean, even margaret thatcher had some rough, very rough periods during her first four years as prime minister, and then won a stunning victory. but i suppose the difficulty here is that borisjohnson is the great communicator, and if the great communicator can't get his message through, despite irritating people in the media, then that potentially is a problem, isn't it? that might cause them to change leader, although one tory mp said to me earlier, "he's probably got six months "to pull things around, because we don't want to do "anything in haste and we still hope he can do it. still hope he can do it." but there is a kind of practical question here, isn't there, that he might still be their best option? well, first of all, i think a prime minister who himself was a journalist as a livelihood before he became a political figure really doesn't have much to say in terms of criticising journalists. so let me just say that that feels a little rich, to begin with. but in terms of being the great communicator, it's no doubt that borisjohnson has a particular kind of charm that really resonates with voters, that he's really more like a great cheerleader. and that was of great benefit back in the election campaign two years ago when brexit was looming and it was a great project that the country was embarking on, a leaping into the unknown. and so, here was borisjohnson in his blustery bluff fashion, reassuring the electorate and telling everyone that great things lie ahead. well, this is a little bit different. people voted for brexit, they didn't vote for the pandemic, and this is something he needs to manage much more effectively, i think, than has been the case. and the voters are beginning to see that, as well as these scandals of sleaze that we've talked about, and that have been dominating the headlines, that have been own goals by this government. now, he needs to be able to communicate not just with the public, but with his own backbenchers and his own party leaders. and if he's not able to do that and show he can pull everything together within a few months, i think he will be in danger. changing a leader is very disruptive, but they're two years out still from the next election, a little bit more than two years, so he has some time to do that, because public memories can be short. but i don't think the party will necessarily be forgiving of him if the current electoral trends keep continuing with lost by—elections like this. simon, ruth davidson, who was the conservative leader in scotland, was on the radio on friday saying one of the examples of what she thought was poor leadership was that speech we talked about a few weeks ago, the peppa pig speech, why has that caused such bad feeling? well, i was there. i was standing not much furtherl from him then you are from me. so you were able to look and look around at the audience...? i did look round, i have to be honest about it. i i've seen quite a few borisjohnson speeches to business. _ i it's an audience he doesn't feel, i unusually for a conservative prime minister, that comfortable in front of _ i think he finds their strictures, spreadsheets and analysis - and all that kind of stuff a little bit sort of stifling. _ and sometimes, like during the brexit debate, he saw. the caution of businesses who had real money- on the line, he saw that... he saw, dare i say, the conservatism of business. well, he just thought... he thought it was, you know, cautious at best, a form - of cowardice at worst. and also, i think he finds business people quite tedious, _ if i'm truly honest, i having watched him in these scenarios. strange, in that sense, he's a bit like ted heath, who used to get very angry about british businessmen coming in to see him and just saying, "we need a bit more money, "we need a bit more this," and not being very imaginative and creative, in his view, at least. well, businesses i like to be positive, but i wouldn't call them... signing up to the kind _ of boosterism that some people accused borisjohnson of. so i was surprised, if i'm honest, probably a damning indictment . of myjournalistic instincts, of how big a story that - became on the day. i think it's now fadedl because as i say, that was par for the course. i've seen him talk to a bunchj of bankers and their partners in davos in switzerland, _ when he was trying to persuade them not to go to switzerland | after the financial crisis, saying you couldn't do a, well, number two after midnight, i because you'd get reported to the authorities. - and everyone roared with laughter. and it was all part - of brand borisjohnson. but i think where the real stuff hit was around - the owen paterson inquiry, which is why we've - had the by—election. yes, there wouldn't be a by—election if he hadn't tried to save 0wen paterson. i mean, his suspension would be |almost over by now, had it beenj played slightly differently. so i don't think brand boris, - in a way, was damaged too much by the peppa pig thing, _ but i think a series of whatever... dominic cummings, his former aide, would call the trolley— going off or whatever, - the trolley going off the road or the car going off. the road, has hit him. but the point is, on an economic basis, we have had a number- of things that have come along. recently which maybe we'll get to, which is the fact that inflation is now rising faster— than people's wages. that is a pretty toxic area for any | politician in any country to be in. j and it's notjust- happening in the uk. it's happening elsewhere. we should make that point. but when you're not getting i on in life, when you're working as hard as you can and actually, prices are rising faster- than you can afford to pay for them, then you begin to feel you're - not getting ahead. and i think that's one _ of the fundamental contracts that you make with the people, that if you do this, - your life will improve. and i think that is one of the things, people i l are seeing their energy bills go up, | their petrol prices go up, and wages not going up in line with that. i think that will be the biggest issue of 2022 on my watch, i which will be inflation —| how high, for how long? polly, that's another reason why the politics are going to get more difficult in the coming year, at least for borisjohnson. i heard ruth davidson also in that interview say, "a bit of bloody grip," as she put it rather bluntly. and that seemed to reflect some of the exasperation that other conservatives have expressed. there will be some tories, though, who see a silver lining and say, "well, at the end of the day, it was won by the liberal democrats, "who are probably not going to be the party that can hope to defeat us "at the general election. "that's labour, and they went from second place to third place. "therefore it can't be as bad as some people are suggesting." that's a serious misjudgment, because there has always been a majority against the conservative party, but it's been split between labour and the lib dems and the greens and other parties. if you really are seeing, in a place like north shropshire, which is very, very deeply and solidly conservative, if you're willing to see people vote tactically to get the conservatives out so that labour voters, who, there were more of them at the last election than liberal democrat voters, are willing to lend their votes to the liberal democrats, whatever it takes to get a conservative out, they're in real trouble because they have relied on that split. one of the most extraordinary things is that this was a very strongly pro—brexit area, deeply rural and pro—brexit. how extraordinary that they have voted for the most anti—brexit party of all, the liberal democrats. it shows that brexit is no longer a political issue in this country. that's what broke labour apart at the last election. that's now over, it's finished. people think brexit is done. they don't want to hear about it any more. and some of borisjohnson�*s mistakes have been to pick quarrels, particularly with the french, because he thinks it will revive his fortunes because he was the great "get brexit done" man. well, brexit is done and people are fed up with it. they don't want to have fights with europe or with france, and they don't want fights with america, protecting the irish, trouble over the irish border. so, he's made so many miscalculations, but this will really change politics, if brexit is no longer really an issue. on that question of brexit no longer being an issue, this christmas, it doesn't really matter whether you've been naughty or nice, because 0micron is coming to town, if it isn't already in your town. in the 2a hours to friday of this week, 93,000 people were infected. daily records have been broken all this week, and will probably continue to be broken, as the rate at which people are becoming infected far exceeds anything seen in the pandemic so far. boris johnson described the british government's response as a "jabathon" — giving people vaccine boosterjabs to limit any effect this new, largely unknown variant of covid will have. it may be a milder infection than previous variants, but if the numbers infected are so much greater than before, then more people will end up in hospital. and i suppose, henry, in that sense, if you could give us a sense of already what impact this is having and why, i suppose, in a sense, we're not starting from scratch here. we're starting in a situation where lots of other medical procedures have had to be put on hold over the last 21 months to deal with covid, and now the point perhaps where people were starting to feel the health service was able to get back into routine, some of it very important, some of it life—saving routine, it's kind of going to be forced back into a kind of reacting—to—covid situation. i'mjust remembering a year ago now when also, you had a new variant that was the kent variant, that was discovered here in britain, was galloping through the country. and the uncertainty that people felt. and now, just exactly 12 months later, we're having a bit of a rerun of that with with omicron. i think the scientists are still saying the jury is out. the data are trickling in in places like south africa, where it was first detected. but here in britain, the scientific advisers are saying it won't be until the end of the month, and possibly well into january, before we have a really strong picture as to whether omicron, which does appear to be more transmissible, is actually less virulent. now, as you said, if it's less virulent, but is still attacking a larger base of people, that could still create great problems for the health service. and we'll have to see how that pans out. we're seeing it doubling in the us every couple of days, which is much faster than delta, but hospitalisations haven't gone up across the board. they've been bad in some places like michigan or new york, and we've been seeing a lot more omicron cases there, but i think we need to approach this with the same caution that we've approached the other variants. we don't know exactly how two booster shots... excuse me, two regular doses of the vaccine will hold up. it seems like they don't hold up so well, so we do need to be going under the jabathon that borisjohnson is promoting, and also just taking the precautions that we've now already become quite accustomed to, and are of really no hardship, to wear a mask in public, let's say, which is now mandatory once again in public spaces here in britain and also in my home state of california. these are easy measures. and let's pull together to try to keep omicron at bay, as much as we can. polly, insofar as this debate has happened in this country, it was focused on that defeat this week on covid vaccine certificates, which will come in anyway because the opposition parties largely supported the prime minister, even if many of his backbenchers did not. the prime minister says we're not going to lock down christmas, we're not planning any lockdowns. in a sense, the public seems to be acting with their own... voting with their feet, as i said before, they seem to have taken it on themselves to decide when it's good to take the risk and when not. that's quite an encouraging sign, isn't it? i think it is. the people have been more sensible than this government, right from the very beginning. the queen herself has started cancelling christmas events. she doesn't want her family meeting together in too many numbers before christmas, and that's what other people are doing round the country. they are cancelling, to the great hardship of restaurants, they are cancelling office parties and family parties. i think there is a precautionary principle that the public understand about public health. if in doubt, we don't know how bad omicron will be, because it will take quite a few weeks before you really get mass hospitalisations, if that's what we're going to get. we're not there yet. people are more cautious. i think there's a lot of trouble with the nhs. i've been covering the nhs for more decades than i'd like to count, and it has never been in such a fragile state. and it entered this covid crisis having had a decade of its most stringent funding since it was founded in 19118. it had 100,000 medical vacancies, and after brexit, it lost a lot of staff. people went. part of the idiocy of brexit was to get rid of people we really needed. and there's now a waiting list of six million people. back in 2010, when this government took over, there was virtually no waiting list. before covid, it had risen to overfour million, and now it's risen to six million. and getting rid of that backlog, trying to catch up with people, often in severe pain waiting for hips or knees are more serious things, it's going to... sound cuts out ..requiring doctors and nurses. one of the first things the government did ten years ago was to cut back on training places. it takes about ten years to train a doctor. it's very difficult to find any kind of quick fix for this very serious problem. simon, that decision that people have made to cancel events themselves is starting to have a real impact in the hospitality sector. restaurants, bars, theatres, all those other things. is it possible to measure how much damage is being done right now? and to have a clear sense of how important this time of the year is for this sector, as compared to the rest of the year, which has not been great? everyone was putting - their hopes on december. for some businesses in hospitality, it makes up for 30% of their profitsj in that one month alone. so it couldn't have - happened at a worse time. we know that it doesn't really- matter what the government says at the moment in terms of their policy. - they will say they won't give extra financial support. - this is the current posture, i expect it to change. - "we're not going to give you extra support because no one _ "is shutting you down." we could walk out of here and go to the pub, it'll be quiet. - this is because the health messaging, consumer- confidence has evaporated, i just out of consumer choice. that means that some businesses are facing financial ruin _ or a huge hit to finances. there'll be a paradox there. if the government helped businesses through the terrible first period of covid and helped keep them going and then, they end up going under at a slightly later period, it almost feels like the money would've been wasted. there is that. i think there's an overarching point here which gets - to a political point. rishi sunak, the chancellor, versus borisjohnson. - |rishi sunak has cut short a holidayj or business meeting in california... not a christmas party! has come back from california to sort this out. _ fundamentally, rishi sunak's - political brand is based on the fact |that every time there's a problem | with the economy, you can't reach out and use the treasury- as a backstop to bail you out. he wants to get back to fiscal rectitude, get debt down. - there's a bit of tension _ between number ten, which thinks they can throw money at many projects, they want _ to make things better. i think the tension . is going to increase. i think they will throw more money now the prime minister wants to protect his reputation. i was talking to business groups who had been . with the chancellor this afternoon. they want to see a return of vat to emergency levels. _ they want business rates deferred and some more targeted grants. i he said there are existing measures, saying without new support, - many will face ruin this christmas. i think he's giving himself enough . room to do nothing on his rationale, but i would be surprised - if he doesn't do something. good. just a quick question to each of you. simon, are you changing your christmas plans? i am hanging on, hopefully. one of the things we haven't factored in is we will be - going about our business and some people will not change their habits. but staff absences will in certain things... - like the transport network, - if you're planning to go as i am next week to see family members, i don't know whether— that train will run. i'm guessing there's a high level ofjeopardy it won't. _ so i'm crossing my fingers. i'm boosted. i'm hanging in there. i'm hoping for the best. i don't know how i can prepare for the worst at this point. - henry? i'm still keeping to my plan of seeing family on the holiday itself, but being more careful about whom i'm seeing and the things i'm doing before that so that it doesn't jeopardise that plan. unfortunately, for me, family members are coming in from the us and australia, and that's scary because you never know when travel restrictions will suddenly be imposed again on either side. whether they can get back in here or go back to their own countries. so, fingers crossed. a relative maybe for a few months, not just for christmas! polly? sadly, my french daughter—in—law, her lovely mother was coming over, and now she can't. so that's very sad. so she won't be joining us and shall be all on her own. nobody to spend christmas with. so, yes, plans have changed. things may well change again this week. it's quite likely that if the omicron gallops ahead at the rate at is, we will be suddenly told not to be meeting. i kept my tent up in the garden, where we were allowed to entertain people out of doors, so we might end up with christmas in the tent again! i hope with a bottle of something fizzy! simon, let's move on to the economy. we're already talking about the economy. inflation up to slightly over 5%, and the bank of england cutting interest rates. raising them. sorry! i've been listening to erdogan in turkey! inflation is going up, cut rates. long after people - were expecting them. i remember in 2009 when interest rates were cut to record lows, - and we all thought in a few months, in a couple of years, _ it'll back to normal. here we are 12 years later, and they were at 0.01%. l they put them up 15 basis points. that is 15 one hundredths of 1%. still incredibly low, - and i think a lot of people thought that, blimey, if 5.1% isn't enough i for the teeniest little increase i in rates up from 0.1 in a decade, then what is? the bank of england were expecting to do it last month. _ they held off, and then the omicron virus, a lot of people thought - they would hold off again. i think they have got to be seen to be in the price stability- game, as the ft put it, - which is kind of their mainjob. what i would say... what are they there for otherwise? other people would say, _ what is this really going to change? also, when it comes to inflation, this is a global phenomenon. - you've got supply chains. iwill raising interest rates rightl now have any impact on inflation when you have bigger structural forces at work? _ i don't think so, i think it's- a credibility—building exercise. talk about credibility building, we'll park turkey's interesting experiment with economics going on right now, you can read on bbc online about that. jerome powell has onlyjust stopped describing inflation as a transitory problem, which seems to be acknowledging... the worrying thing is if inflation gets into the system and we can't eliminate it because of limits in terms of the benefits these days, of interest rates making a difference, the kind of tools are very limited for central banks. well, there are some things that for example the biden administration can do in the us, where inflation is even worse than here. last month, it nearly hit 7%, and it was the highest rise in about 40 years. but the problem with the tools they have at their disposal is they are often jackhammers that create a cure that can be almost worse than the problem itself. i know some people are saying this inflationary period might peak around march and april, and you can maybe let it ride through, but the danger for politicians is that come election time, the electorate won't be so forgiving, especially for a democratic president. those with memories of the carter administration, talking about the '805, his presence was limited to one term largely because of inflation and rising gas prices. absolutely totemic in us society. it doesn't matter what the nasdaq and dowjones are doing. if it's costing you more to put gas into your car, that will really impact your vote. no wonder he's been cautious in letting some of the reserves out. my thanks to simonjack, polly toynbee and henry chu. if you are stuck at home for christmas, stay with dateline. we will look back at the year that has just gone. goodbye. it was quite a misty murky start to the data many of us. fog practice lingering, and a cold one too as temperatures of —8.9, the cold light of the autumn or winter so far. the rest of the day, some sunshine, mostly cloudy and largely dry. there will be the odd spot of drizzle. high pressure driving our weather, bringing us the largely dry and unsettled theme. you can see where we will stick with the cloud, particularly the parts of southern, central and eastern england in the northern and north—eastern scotland. some sunshine for shetland and western scotland, northern ireland, western scotland, northern ireland, western england and western fringes of england and wales. temperatures around three — nine, that some of us lucky to see blue skies, particularly in the west. cloudy further east and i think this evening. that cloud was thick enough for the odd spot of rain or drizzle. tonight will not be quite as cold, but parts of england and scotland there. underthe but parts of england and scotland there. under the blanket of cloud, mostly frost—free. high pressure still holding on as we head to monday, so the weather not changing very much day today. we will notice on monday after the chilly starts at mist and fog, but not as extensive as recent days. there will be more sunshine breaking through certain holes in the cloud across england and wales where we have not seen the sunshine for quite a few days. top temperature about 2 degrees in aberdeen and hire in plymouth. not too much change. quite a lot of cloud, but there will be holes in the cloud once again. perhaps a few showers in northern scotland. temperatures are starting to come down, between three and 9 degrees on tuesday, a frost overnight as well. front mid week onwards, it looks like the run up towards christmas will see high—pressure shifting a bit towards the east. that could open the doors for these low—pressure fronts to what we will see as we go towards the festive weekend is that battleground of cold air spilling weekend is that battleground of cold airspilling in weekend is that battleground of cold air spilling in from the north and milder airfrom the air spilling in from the north and milder air from the south—west. the next few days will see frosty nights, generally dry with things turning a bit more unsettled as we head towards the weekend. keep your eyes on the forecast over the next few days. this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. in the uk, the health secretary says it is time to be cautious about social interactions and refuses to rule out tighter covid restrictions before christmas in response to the rapid spread of the omicron variant there are no guarantees in this pandemic. i think at this point we have to keep everything under review. labour has called on the government to set out a clear plan for covid restrictions over christmas and into the new year so action is necessary, sage had been clear about that, they were clear on thursday, since then, we have seen nothing, heard nothing from the prime minister. germany bans british travellers and the netherlands goes into full lockdown — as europe ramps up its fight against the spread of omicron