know her at all, _ kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, but - kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, but i - kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, but i think| kind of mpc will be? i don'tl know her at all, but i think it has been clear in this campaign that she is local, she is a chartered accountant, she is committed to the area. she actually stood in the last general election with a10% vote. it is a sign, a real kind of ability to need a ground walker with support from party hq to just get out there and persuade the voters that even though this is a historically blue seat, a conservative seat, it is the 75th safest seat in the country, to persuade them that she can be a voice, a person of integrity and an improvement on both an mp who was stood down as a result of a scandal and they conservative party that seems to mostly be involved in having parties instead of sticking to coronavirus restrictions, she has run this campaign on the sense of what you want, i candidate you can trust, they have also kind of focused on this idea that the conservative candidate is a lawyerfrom birmingham,, it very often works in by—elections. people are not thinking about politics in the same way as they were the general election. that sense of we just want someone who cares about our constituency first and foremost, it is a massive part of the by—election, and i think they have relentlessly focused on the part of her story as well. mo hussein, former conservative special adviser and chief of press at downing street. in any ordinary time, he would bea in any ordinary time, he would be a clear choice for any reason like this.- be a clear choice for any reason like this. the west of england. — reason like this. the west of england, bordering - reason like this. the west of england, bordering wales, | reason like this. the west of. england, bordering wales, lots of farmers. does he bear any personal, responsibility for losing this vote? i personal, responsibility for losing this vote?— losing this vote? i think he was facing _ losing this vote? i think he was facing a _ losing this vote? i think he was facing a very _ losing this vote? i think he l was facing a very challenging backdrop in that talking to people out there on the ground, they view the local issues that did come up, whether it was the response times or transport or the impacts of possible trade deals on farming. i think this was really overshadowed by the christmas party on the doorstep or how things were going down in westminster and what was happening in number 10. in westminster and what was happening in numberio. i in westminster and what was happening in number 10. i think it was challenging time for him. the fact that he wasn't from the local area i don't think really helped him either. that can be overcome, that has been overcome before, but the wider context, it can feel a bit like an uphill battle from his perspective i think. qm. bit like an uphill battle from his perspective i think. 0k, we will leave _ his perspective i think. 0k, we will leave it _ his perspective i think. 0k, we will leave it there _ his perspective i think. 0k, we will leave it there for _ his perspective i think. 0k, we will leave it there for now. - will leave it there for now. thank you very much forjoining us. we will cross to elizabeth at north shropshire. what is happening? we at north shropshire. what is happening?— at north shropshire. what is hauenina? «a, , ., happening? we think any moment now the 14 candidates _ happening? we think any moment now the 14 candidates in _ happening? we think any moment now the 14 candidates in this - now the 14 candidates in this by—election in north shropshire will come through the door which isjust to my right will come through the door which is just to my right and march onto the stage behind me for the official declaration. we were told it was due about 4am, so looking at your clock, you can see we are a little past that. we are expecting it imminently. as you has been saying, the liberal democrats here confident of a win. they say notjust squeaking, think it will be comfortable and a very, very bad night for conservatives, the conservative candidate neil shastri—hurst would have expected to hold this safe conservative seat easily, he has lost the tonight, and it sounds like it is a decisive loss, a very bad night for conservatives indeed. on the other hand the liberal democrats absolutely jubilant, absolutely thrilled. helen morgan turned up an hour ago to cheers and celebrations from the lib dem have activists who are here. we think not long to wait now until it is made official, a very, very bad night for the conservatives it is looking, and an absolutely amazing night with a huge swing for the liberal democrats, much bigger than the swing in pressure and ambition. we think it might be 30%. certainly a very good night for the liberal democrats here. ml very good night for the liberal democrats here.— democrats here. all right, elizabeth. _ democrats here. all right, elizabeth, stay _ democrats here. all right, elizabeth, stay there - democrats here. all right, elizabeth, stay there for i democrats here. all right, i elizabeth, stay there for now and we will come back to you shortly. we have lewis got all. what is the latest you are hearing?— what is the latest you are hearin: ? . , , ., hearing? the latest is we are affectin: hearing? the latest is we are affecting the _ hearing? the latest is we are affecting the liberal - hearing? the latest is we are | affecting the liberal democrat victory and the very ominous silence from the conservative party, very few conservatives speaking tonight as you might expect. the candidate is nowhere to be heard either. i think they will spend this evening, once we have the official result, taking stock official result, taking stock of what is one of the worst by—election performances that we have seen. on one hand we shall always remember that by—elections are unusual and it is not rare visiting governments to experience enormous by—election losses, for example in brent in 2003, tony blair to the liberal democrats, tony blair return in 2005, there are endless examples like that, but it doesn't mean that it really affect the alchemy of politics as they are, particularly the psychology of members of parliament. they are very nervous about their seats and we are potentially looking at another general election in two years, people thought it might come in 2023 or earlier, i suspect those people would take that particular view home with them right now. conservative mps will be nervous but the interesting thing that will happen now is we potentially have two different sets of conservative mps with quite different descriptions for the conservative party because you have two very broadly speaking consolation for mp5. one our seats at the conservatives one from the labor party in places like the north of england and midlands, particular in 2019. borisjohnson was an important factor in taking those seeds or the conservative party, he had an unique electoral appeal, they call him the heineken tory, the torah that other voters that other tories could not reach. then you have conservative mps particularly more sudden seats, rural seeds like north shropshire, seats in the south of england, cheshire, ambition, the lib dems are typically in second place all the main challenges. there has been not quite the electoral advantage there has been. you could be looking at a situation in the next year or so where you have the two different groups of conservative mps have looking at the question of the leadership of the conservative party in quite a different way. you are seeing the cost of the conservative family, the conservative family, the conservative party coming so large, you are seeing some of those costs starting to appear, some of those contradictions, the weight of some of those contradictions are starting to really make themselves felt. real politics catching up with borisjohnson. one of the things are so many of us and people observing politics have felt for a long time is nothing seems to touch borisjohnson, has a talismanic sort of appeal, it does look like that tonight. it doesn't look quite so much that way after the last few months. he is starting to look a little more normal as a politician. david davis, a former conservative cabinet minister, was saying last night that he felt people had often said the rules didn't apply to borisjohnson. he felt now the boris johnson. he felt now the rules were starting to apply and i think you can multiply that by ten after this result. people are watching all around the world. this is relatively... the world. this is relatively. . .- the world. this is relativel ~ ., �* the world. this is relativel... . �* ., relatively... we haven't heard of shropshire. _ relatively... we haven't heard of shropshire. they _ relatively... we haven't heard of shropshire. they will - relatively... we haven't heard of shropshire. they will now! | of shropshire. they will now! why does this matter? fin of shropshire. they will now! why does this matter? on the face of it. _ why does this matter? on the face of it, in _ why does this matter? on the face of it, in arithmetical- face of it, in arithmetical parliamentary terms, it doesn't matter at all. there is no question about borisjohnson staying on, i would imagine in the short term at least as prime minister. the facts of the matter is although a lot of conservatives are nervous, it has a lot of credit in the bank because he was the first conservative leader to really win a solid majority since margaret thatcher in 1987, and the fact there isn't really any obvious heir apparent, the king or queen over the water can just walk in and be more popular than borisjohnson. for popular than boris johnson. for those popular than borisjohnson. for those reasons, it seems likely he will go on. it matters in terms of his personal authority, his personal political position, which looked unassailable only a few months ago at the conservative party conference in manchester, it was the boris show everywhere he went. it doesn't feel like that now. how quickly things can change, the psychology of the party can change. politics is a pendulum and can swing back again just as easily as it swung in one direction it reminds us that politics is so volatile for the one theme i have been struck by the last couple of years, there really is a member, a theme, a mantra about being taken for granted about all of these old seats, with all the labor party in the north of england, scotland, the conservative party and some of their traditional seats, party and some of their traditionalseats, i party and some of their traditional seats, i just don't like like the idea of a safe seat. sometimes they are quite hard—working but people say, we are being taken for granted because they voted for labour or tories for a hundred years. it is much volatile, or interesting for people like us because we can talk about it at four o'clock in the morning. for politicians that are used to a certain stability in certain seats, it is much more unpredictable.— unpredictable. politics can be capricin- — unpredictable. politics can be capricious. previous - capricious. previous conservative prime minister �*s, theresa may, david cameron, their downfall was brexit. boris johnson's their downfall was brexit. borisjohnson's op yalata has waned slightly with a pandemic, and over these revelations of parties in his downing street residence was would be the downfall of borisjohnson? ll downfall of boris johnson? it might be. a lot of people off before. he has a remarkable ability to repel and to see off things that other politicians would affect badly, interesting you talk about brexit. you could make an argument that one of his problems in a way, and it could be a problem in the next general election is brexit may long be the issue solely as it was in 2019. he won the election with get brexit done, he said again and again. brexit is done, it is done as a serious political issue, it would be impossible to campaign at the next election. at least he would know the process, and you have seen here in north shropshire a seat which is very heavily, voted over 60% believe. you might looks like they have elected a liberal democrat member of parliament who went into the last election pledging a second referendum and managed to overcome that. the question is, can boris johnson reinvent the conservative message if he doesn't have brexit as one of the defining themes for his administration. the previously saw credit _ administration. the previously saw credit for _ administration. the previously saw credit for the _ administration. the previously saw credit for the liberal - saw credit for the liberal democrats drop after the coalition with the conservatives under david cameron. is this a sign they are becoming more popular? that is all in the past? it is true we are seeing a revocation of the liberal democrats.- the liberal democrats. they were completely _ the liberal democrats. they were completely destroyed, j were completely destroyed, consumed, eaten by the conservative party in 2015 after their five year period in government. it is a double—edged sword in a way for the lib dems. on one hand it is clear they way will be re—establishing themselves, they used to be known as the party of protest, none of the above. you were not happy with labour or the conservatives have a duopoly and the lib dems did very well. in 2005 at 62 seats, just less than that in 2010. we are seeing a return to that. the question is what are they for, afterjust being a party of protest. as a result of by—elections this year, those mps will be 15% of the parliamentary total. it is not an insignificant thing when you have so few numbers in the house of commons. we have so few numbers in the house of commons. we are seeing the candidates _ house of commons. we are seeing the candidates gather. _ house of commons. we are seeing the candidates gather. we - house of commons. we are seeing the candidates gather. we will - the candidates gather. we will go to them when the announcement is made. what do we know about the lib dems candidate?— we know about the lib dems candidate? ,, ., , ., .. ., candidate? she was a candidate in 2019 so _ candidate? she was a candidate in 2019 so she _ candidate? she was a candidate in 2019 so she did _ candidate? she was a candidate in 2019 so she did have - candidate? she was a candidate in 2019 so she did have a - candidate? she was a candidate in 2019 so she did have a local. in 2019 so she did have a local profile which i think will have felt a bit. i met her last week, what makes you think you have a chance of winning this, she is going around saying it is a lib dems conservative two horse race when you only got a small vote. she said, things are different. it looks like she was right and i was wrong because she is going to be a new member of parliament for the constituency. it looks like has really paid them dividends, both impotently taking the 22% of the vote they got last time and coming from third, and a miserable third at that to going first in a seat that has been a conservative seat. haw been a conservative seat. how much of a _ been a conservative seat. how much of a calculated _ been a conservative seat. how much of a calculated vote - been a conservative seat. how much of a calculated vote was therebetween labour and lib dems voters to make sure anyone but conservatives got in? we don't know — but conservatives got in? - don't know yet because we haven't seen the results. it seems likely, i was talking to a lib dems tonight, and they said they had worked very hard to make sure the labour vote stayed 10% which would allow them to win,... is stayed 10% which would allow them to win,...— stayed 10% which would allow them to win,... is going out to shrewsbury — them to win,... is going out to shrewsbury for _ them to win,... is going out to shrewsbury for the _ shrewsbury for the announcement. thank you for your patience. i, tim _ thank you for your patience. i, tim collard, _ thank you for your patience. i, tim collard, being the deputy acting — tim collard, being the deputy acting returning officer at the election— acting returning officer at the election of a member of parliament for the north shropshire constituency, declare _ shropshire constituency, declare that the total number of votes — declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows: baker smith, — candidate was as follows: baker smith, suzanne, commonly known as susie, _ smith, suzanne, commonly known as susie, independent, 95. applause allen, andrea christabel, uk independence party, ukip, 378. myles. — independence party, ukip, 378. myles, andrew philip, rejoined eu, 58~ — myles, andrew philip, rejoined eu, 58. martin edward daubney, the reclaim party, 375. russell fraser— the reclaim party, 375. russell fraser dean, party party, 90. james _ fraser dean, party party, 90. james alexander elliott, heritage party, 79. alan "howling laud" hope, the official— "howling laud" hope, the official monster raving loony party, — official monster raving loony party, 118. earljesse, freedom alliance. — party, 118. earljesse, freedom alliance, the real alternative, 57. yolande kenward, three. duncan — 57. yolande kenward, three. duncan alastair kerr, the green party, _ duncan alastair kerr, the green party, 1738. helen margaret lillian — party, 1738. helen margaret lillian morgan, liberal democrats, 17,957. neil shastri—hurst, conservative party — shastri—hurst, conservative party candidate, 12,032. kirsty rebecca — party candidate, 12,032. kirsty rebecca walmsley, reform uk, 1427~ _ rebecca walmsley, reform uk, 1427~ and — rebecca walmsley, reform uk, 1427. and finally, benjamin thomas— 1427. and finally, benjamin thomas wood, labor party, 3686. the number of official ballot papers — the number of official ballot papers rejected was as follows: want _ papers rejected was as follows: want of — papers rejected was as follows: want of official mark, three. voting — want of official mark, three. voting for more than one candidate, 20. writing or mark by which — candidate, 20. writing or mark by which voting could not be identified, zero. unmarked or avoided — identified, zero. unmarked or avoided due to uncertainty, 51. the total— avoided due to uncertainty, 51. the total number of objected ballot — the total number of objected ballot papers were 74. the total— ballot papers were 74. the total number of votes cast across _ total number of votes cast across north shropshire at this election— across north shropshire at this election on 16 december 2021 was 38,096. the total electorate is 82,314. therefore i electorate is 82,314. therefore i give _ electorate is 82,314. therefore i give public notice that morgan, helen margaret lillian, is duly— morgan, helen margaret lillian, is duly elected as the member of parliament for the north yorkshire constituency. applause -- - applause —— north shropshire constituency. thank you. i think the returning officer, his staff and the other candidates for a well—run election. i think the rest of my family, from the bottom of my heart, for your love and support. i would also like to thank my election agent, chris lovell morgan, my incredible team, the liberal democrats and the thousands of liberal democrats who answered our party's call. your amazing efforts have delivered a gift of hope for our countryjust in time for christmas. tonight, the people of north shropshire have spoken on behalf of the british people. they have said loudly and clearly boris johnson, the party is over. your government, run on lies and bluster, will be held accountable. it will be scrutinised, it will be challenged and it can and will defeated. across the country, the liberal democrats are taking on the conservatives and winning. in rural shropshire today, just like in bucks in june, we have won the support of people who have always voted conservative and people who always opposed them. thousands of lifelong conservative voters, dismayed by boris johnson's lack of decency and fed up with being taken for granted, and thousands of lifelong labour voters willing to lend their vote to the candidate who can defeat the conservatives. people who believe that our politics should be about creating a better country for us all, not the soap opera of calamity and chaos. all of them casting their ballots for the liberal democrats. and let me say specifically to all those labour voters comic supporters who lent their votes today, thank you. you have shown tonight that together we can defeat the conservatives, not with deals behind closed doors but with common sense at the ballot box. these are testing times for our country. our nhs, as we know too well here in shropshire, is teetering on the brink. our rural economy is in a precarious state, with people's livelihoods at risk. our country is crying out for leadership. mrjohnson, you are no leader. many of your predecessors took office because they believed in a sense of national service, that they were duty—bound to do what they were duty—bound to do what they feel is right for our country, to represent all of us evenif country, to represent all of us even if they disagreed with them. mrjohnson, this is not how you operate. too often this is all about you and never about us. instead of taking action to help shropshire's nhs, you spend time seeking questionable donations. instead of taking action to support shropshire's farmers, you spend your time misleading the nation on how you and your office party did during lockdown. tonight the people of north shropshire have said enough is enough. they have said that you are unfit to lead and that they want a change. i want to pay tribute tonight to my party leader, ed davey. thanks to you, it is the liberal democrats who are opposing boris johnson's democrats who are opposing borisjohnson's government and boris johnson's government and winning. borisjohnson's government and winning. from cheshire to north shropshire, you lead our campaigns from the front. i thank you personally for the support you have given me over the past few weeks, whether it is on the streets or in drayton, you have led the charge for change. finally, thank you most of all to the people of north shropshire, not just for your support throughout this campaign, not just for putting your faith in me to be your champion in parliament, but for all the hard work and sacrifices you have made over the past two years to get our communities through this awful pandemic. i will never take it for granted. my will never take it for granted. my priorities are your priorities. improving our local ambulance service, gps and hospitals, supporting our farmers and defending our rural way of life, helping our communities through this new wave of covid. as your mp, i promise i will work for you and only you. i will always put local people and our communities first. whether you supported me or supported someone else, i want to let you know that i am here to represent you and stand up for everyone in north shropshire. thank you. everyone in north shropshire. thank yon-— everyone in north shropshire. thank ou. ., ., ., . “ thank you. you are watching bbc news, thank you. you are watching bbc news. and _ thank you. you are watching bbc news, and that _ thank you. you are watching bbc news, and that was _ thank you. you are watching bbc news, and that was helen - thank you. you are watching bbc| news, and that was helen morgan speaking there, who hasjust been declared the winner in the north shropshire by—election. she is from the liberal democrat party. that is traditionally a safe conservative seat, so quite the news headline there that the conservatives have lost that seat. i am joined conservatives have lost that seat. iamjoined in conservatives have lost that seat. i am joined in the studio by lewis goodall who covers policy and politics for the bbc�*s policy and politics for the bbc�*s newsnight programme and a vote of nearly 18,004 helen morgan. vote of nearly 18,004 helen moraan. �* ., , �* vote of nearly 18,004 helen moraan. �* �* , ., morgan. and it wasn't “ust a victo . morgan. and it wasn't “ust a victory. iii morgan. and it wasn't “ust a victory. it hi morgan. and it wasn't “ust a victory. it is a i morgan. and it wasn'tjust a victory. it is a sizeable, - victory. it is a sizeable, sizeable victoria, a majority of well over 5000 votes. this is more than the liberal democrats could have dream doll. when i was speaking to them last week, when i was speaking to them yesterday, yes there was a bit of expectation management, we think it will be close, we think it might win it but it will be tight. this was not tight, this was a blowout. this was a comprehensive victory. they barely even needed labour votes. there is direct transference from the conservative party. they have squeezed the labour vote as well, very successfully, something we have seen in recent elections like cheshire and amersham. ed davey, the leader, of course, will not be able to go to the count because he is self—isolating, but doubtless from the comfort of his isolation house he will be having some champagne or ten. this is another by—election victory on top of another sensational victory in chesham and amersham. we will see conservative mps deeply worried and a body blow for the authority of the prime minister.— authority of the prime minister. ., ,, , ., , . minister. thank you very much. if ou minister. thank you very much. if you are _ minister. thank you very much. if you are watching _ if you are watching internationally you can get the latest on this on the bbc news website and the bbc news app. if you are watching in the uk, stay with us. much more on this. forthosejoining stay with us. much more on this. for thosejoining around this. for those joining around the this. for thosejoining around the world. thank you very much. we will see you next time. lets go to our two guests, polly mckenzie and mo hussein, conservative special adviser and chief of staff at downing street. helen's speech was not much about policy or politics. it was really just a much about policy or politics. it was reallyjust a message for one person, and that person was borisjohnson. for one person, and that person was boris johnson.— was boris johnson. yes, it was an ex- orientating _ was boris johnson. yes, it was an ex- orientating speech. - an ex— orientating speech. borisjohnson at number ten boris johnson at number ten taken borisjohnson at number ten taken to task about the contempt that she feels he shows voters. she accused him of a culture of lies, not holding her punches there. that is the message that i think the voters of north shropshire are sending. it is truly remarkable, to the conservative —— for the conservative vote to have literally halved, more than 62% in the election and down to 31% of the vote, just shy of 6000 majority in a by—election where turnout is relatively low, that is 15% more of the vote, that is truly extraordinary. such a rejection in a loyal conservative seat. and she didn't mention brexit, and i think that is really interesting as well, because this has absolutely nothing to do with brexit. a really strong brexit supporting community, 60% supporting brexit and lewis earlier said that the liberal democrats went into the 2019 general election promising a second referendum. they promised to overturn the brexit referendum completely and just go back into the european union without putting it to the voters. fora without putting it to the voters. for a party with that legacy to be turned to by voters who are that committed to brexit absolutely tells you that it to brexit absolutely tells you thatitis to brexit absolutely tells you that it is just not the story anymore. that left that boris johnson had of being able to say i am the only one who can get brexit done has just completely evaporated. it is now about character. character, judgement and competence, and thatis judgement and competence, and that is what helen morgan has absolutely attacked boris johnson four. she has promised to be a good local mp, but this was not for her in that speech about north shropshire. she was saying — and quite reasonably — that the voters of north shropshire have spoken for the whole country, which is basically sick of this culture of treating voters appallingly. mo hussein, this really was a sore night for the conservative party. how will this go down in party headquarters? it is party. how will this go down in party headquarters?— party headquarters? it is an extremely _ party headquarters? it is an extremely disappointing - party headquarters? it is an l extremely disappointing vote for the — extremely disappointing vote for the conservatives, and my congratulations to the new mp that we — congratulations to the new mp that we have now, but this will io that we have now, but this will go down — that we have now, but this will go down very badly because it was such— go down very badly because it was such a long held and safe conservative seat and because it was — conservative seat and because it was leave voting as well. the — it was leave voting as well. the brexit argument was such a fundamental part of the last election that i think real questions will be asked. if you are now— questions will be asked. if you are now an— questions will be asked. if you are now an mp and a seat that the lib— are now an mp and a seat that the lib dems are chasing, you will be — the lib dems are chasing, you will be worried. but if you are an mp — will be worried. but if you are an mp in _ will be worried. but if you are an mp in any other seat that is more — an mp in any other seat that is more marginal, you have a smaller— more marginal, you have a smaller majority than 23,000, you will— smaller majority than 23,000, you will also be quite concerned. you will go back to your— concerned. you will go back to your constituencies over christmas, you will probably -et christmas, you will probably get letters from your constituents and then you will come — constituents and then you will come back with real concerns. a lot of— come back with real concerns. a lot of mps' — come back with real concerns. a lot of mps' relationship with the prime minister is quite transactional. they see him as somebody who can win votes. two years _ somebody who can win votes. two years ago— somebody who can win votes. two years ago he did when a stonking majority for the conservative party, and that means, _ conservative party, and that means, the cost of that is, they— means, the cost of that is, they nray— means, the cost of that is, they may hold their nose at some — they may hold their nose at some of— they may hold their nose at some of the things that he says and does — some of the things that he says and does because that isjust hint — and does because that isjust hint and _ and does because that isjust him and because he can win votes — him and because he can win votes. once he loses this electoral gold dust then that transactional relationship kicks _ transactional relationship kicks in _ transactional relationship kicks in as well, and people will— kicks in as well, and people will start— kicks in as well, and people will start asking questions about— will start asking questions about the way forward. i think you will— about the way forward. i think you will hear a lot more of that— you will hear a lot more of that in— you will hear a lot more of that in the coming days. this whole vote because i want patterson had to resign. we heard the stories about the downing street parties. is there a bigger issue here, that issue being cleaning up the conservative party? l issue being cleaning up the conservative party?- conservative party? i think there are _ conservative party? i think there are real— conservative party? i think there are real questions i conservative party? i think- there are real questions around trust _ there are real questions around trust and — there are real questions around trust and questions around authority that have to be looked _ authority that have to be looked at very seriously. this was _ looked at very seriously. this was a — looked at very seriously. this was a message being sent to the government, and i think government, and i think government has to listen and has to— government has to listen and has to reflect on this