let's go back to the north shropshire by—election. we are expecting a declaration soon. let's cross live now to the political editor for the region, elizabeth glinka, who's at the north shropshire count. what is the latest? we are hoinu what is the latest? we are heping to _ what is the latest? we are hoping to have _ what is the latest? we are hoping to have that - what is the latest? we are hoping to have that official declaration in the next half—an—hour to an hour, we don't have that fully confirmed at the moment, but counting is still ongoing. but what we do know is that the liberal democrats believe they have won this seat. they are confident they i wanted, notjust buy a little bit. they say they have wanted comfortably. to put this into context, this is a huge result, historic result in shropshire. this seat has been conservative for almost 200 years. they have never had an mp from any other party here. this is an major results, and the lib dems have overturned a majority on 2019 almost 23,000, they have flooded the constituency with campaigners, canvases over the last week, they reckon about 1000 people have come in from other parts of the country to help get the message across and get the vote out and terms of those conservative and labour voters towards the liberal democrats, and in the event it seems they have achieved it. they are confident they have taken this seat and the conservative party have a very bloodied nose. at this stage conservative candidate neil shastri—hurst who has had a very difficult campaign partly of course because of what has been going on down in london at westminster with the party at number 10 in the to last christmas and accusations of sleaze and rebellions over covid, he has had a very difficult campaign and last week has been very, very intense and his team really had their heads down, and in the event it seems that they have lost out. he's so far has not arrived at the count, we expect he will arrive at some point, but it is quite difficult to find any conservatives who will talk to us at the moment or even have much to say at all. they are deeply disappointed. this result is going to be felt in westminster, felt acutely by the prime minister and his supporters because of course one thing that has always been said about borisjohnson apart from anything else, he is a winner. here in north shropshire that appears not to be the case. the liberal democrats are taking it in what is a historic or will be what is a historic or will be what is a historic victory for them. 0k, is a historic victory for them. ok, elizabeth at the north shropshire count, thank you very much. with me now is lewis goodall who covers politics and policy for bbc newsnight. are we hearing anything from the conservative party about this? , ., , , this? they have been very quiet indeed, this? they have been very quiet indeed. and _ this? they have been very quiet indeed, and the _ this? they have been very quiet indeed, and the fact _ this? they have been very quiet indeed, and the fact is - indeed, and the fact is whether borisjohnson is up right now his legion of mps up, they are going to have a very nasty shock whenever they'd wake because make no mistake, this is a body blow for boris johnson, a historic victory for the lib dems. potentially around 30% swing that would put it in the very top tier of historic by—election victories. eighth or ninth depending on the decimal point that we get. but it will be one for the ages. we should remind people this is a conservative seat as you can get, it is in the shires of england, the deep shires, it has been conservative more or less in one form or the other since the great reform act, certainly since britain has been a democratic country. it has been the seat in which conservative parties have built their majorities. it is the foundation seat. to lose, it will be a body blow, particularly because it was a by—election i didn't have to take place, it was a by—election that arose out of a corruption scandal with the former mp owen paterson who held the seat since 1997 we won't go into why that by—election came about, but if i want patterson has simply accepted —— owen paterson had accepted —— owen paterson had accepted the recommendations and simply have a 30 day suspension, a suspension which would have been over by now and the prime minister encouraged him to do it instead whipping bmps him to do it instead whipping bmps to do it, this would have taken place. his own authority is receiving a hammer blow from this by—election. the other reason it will be very damaging indeed is because we are in a situation where borisjohnson has had a very bad few months and lots of conservative mps have majorities are in second place and look at this result and find themselves in a very nervous place indeed. the conservative party was not a happy ship going into this by—election. at the other end of it it will be even worse. a, of it it will be even worse. a traditionally safe conservative seat as you mentioned, pro brexit, generally an older population. you have been in the region. why this swing? when we get the full results we can have a better idea of its ugly what has happened to the conservative vote. when knew what was being rather suppressed, we knew that from the bexley by—election from a couple of weeks ago. the governing parties traditionally don't do so well in the by—election. the circumstances of this election as i say were very difficult for boris johnson and for the conservative party arising from a corruption scandal of an individual mp and then you had a series of corruption and sleaze stories, the downing street party is a story that has been dominating the news in the last couple of weeks. if we hadn't had another by—election from the live demos which came a few months ago in the summer, it might be easierfor a few months ago in the summer, it might be easier for boris johnson to turn around and say.. johnson to turn around and say,, this is a unique set of circumstances, it was a terrible way to go into this by—election, it came about for a terrible reason. we have had a terrible reason. we have had a rough few months but now the liberal democrats have scored two spectacular by—election wins in the space of six months, that means you have scores of conservative mps who haven't really had to worry about lib dems for a long time. ever since the conservative party ate them up and spat them out in the 2015 in the uk, live demos have been a bit player with a few exceptions. suddenly with a few exceptions. suddenly with the idea of them taking back their traditional role in the protest vote, that is really going to be a source of discomfort for the conservative party and boris johnson discomfort for the conservative party and borisjohnson and may conservative mps already nervous, even more irritated. lots of people on twitter will be getting very excited about the idea of a borisjohnson, i don't know what happened. it is not a question of the conservative mps moving against the prime minister at this time. it is the first leader to overcome the anaemic set of election performances they have had basically since 1997, the first conservative leader to win a diesel majorities and is margaret thatcher in 1987. it makes him look suddenly vulnerable in a way that he never looks vulnerable. i was at a conference a few months ago and they were talking about ten years of boris. politics is a pendulum and we can see it swinging violently from side to side. it is entirely possible, and the important thing to learn is that suddenly people are looking at borisjohnson and thinking maybe he is not the guaranteed winner that we thought he was, and when we think about the genesis of borisjohnson which is the conservative party have never had a great love for him as such, part of the party does, but there is not a strong johnson wing within the conservative party to come to his aid, it has always been about his stardust, his ability to win elections. that looks to have been taken away, then he could be in some trouble. we will go now to our former conservative special adviser. mo hussein is former conservative special adviser and chief of press at downing street. what is your reaction to what looks like a huge defeat for your party? it looks like a huge defeat for your party?— your party? it is very disappointing - your party? it is very disappointing if- your party? it is very disappointing if that| your party? it is very l disappointing if that is your party? it is very - disappointing if that is what happens, it looks like that will happen. by—elections have always been two halves of the what is locally and nationally. as we have alluded to, there has been a real drip of unforced errors, self—inflicted wounds that i think will have come up on the doorstep and have contributed to the result that certainly people are expecting, and this inability for the government to try and pre—empt some of these things or make different decisions or get ahead of stories or react in a way that would have led to a different result. there will be a lot of introspection and i think the government should really listen, if this is a loss, listen to what people are saying, listen to this as a warning shot and focus on the things that matter, go back to the manifesto commitments, go back to delivering that. let’s back to delivering that. let's also now _ back to delivering that. let's also now bring _ back to delivering that. let's also now bring in _ back to delivering that. let's also now bring in polly - also now bring in polly mckenzie. chief executive of demo and former special advisor to nick clegg. this is a traditionally safe conservative seat. is this a win for the liberal democrats or does a protest vote against the tories? i or does a protest vote against the tories?— the tories? i think it is a nomination. _ the tories? i think it is a nomination. it _ the tories? i think it is a nomination. it starts - the tories? i think it is a | nomination. it starts with the tories? i think it is a i nomination. it starts with a series— nomination. it starts with a series of— nomination. it starts with a series of unforced errors by the — series of unforced errors by the conservative party. that is why i— the conservative party. that is why i think it will have consequences, first and foremost, in terms of boris johnsorr's _ foremost, in terms of boris johnson's relationship with his backbenchers, his party who are already— backbenchers, his party who are already there, that the promise he made. — already there, that the promise he made, that i can make you electahle, _ he made, that i can make you electable, starts to crumble, and they— electable, starts to crumble, and they are angry about those unforced — and they are angry about those unforced errors. but it still is a — unforced errors. but it still is a victory for the liberal democrats for what used to be a kind of— democrats for what used to be a kind of famous by—election winning _ kind of famous by—election winning machine. since being in government, the democrats have fallen_ government, the democrats have fallen dramatically in the polls _ fallen dramatically in the polls from where they were pre—2010 and had lost some of that, _ pre—2010 and had lost some of that, they— pre—2010 and had lost some of that, they did win the treasure and hammersley by—election. and that it _ and hammersley by—election. and that it is _ and hammersley by—election. and that it is and has been there are places in the country where it is the — are places in the country where it is the liberal democrats and the labor— it is the liberal democrats and the labor party. having come from — the labor party. having come from third _ the labor party. having come from third and managed to persuade the people of north shropshire that they were the best— shropshire that they were the best bet— shropshire that they were the best bet if they wanted to give a bloodied nose to the conservative party at the ballot _ conservative party at the ballot box, that is i think quite _ ballot box, that is i think quite significant in terms of simply— quite significant in terms of simply the tactics for the next general— simply the tactics for the next general election. the question for the — general election. the question for the labor party about thinking about where it wants to concentrate its efforts where _ to concentrate its efforts where it might, though i don't think— where it might, though i don't think there will ever be a founai— think there will ever be a formal arrangement, think there will ever be a formalarrangement, but think there will ever be a formal arrangement, but where it might — formal arrangement, but where it might want to withdraw some of its _ it might want to withdraw some of its campaigning and investment in order to allow a different— investment in order to allow a different political force or in some — different political force or in some places potentially the green — some places potentially the green party to be the ones to take — green party to be the ones to take on— green party to be the ones to take on the conservatives. we have north — take on the conservatives. , have north shropshire if confirmed, cheshire and amersham, and of course the rebellion of his own mps when it came to his coronavirus restrictions. surely the power is just slipping through boris johnson was �*s fingers. and he called us back? i johnson was 's fingers. and he called us back?— called us back? i think authority _ called us back? i think authority has - called us back? i think authority has been - called us back? i think- authority has been draining for authority has been draining for a while now, and it is really about how number 10 and how the prime minister responds to this. this is i would say probably the worst possibly backdrop to have a by—election at the moment given everything that has been going on. if there is different behaviour, and if the government shows that it has been listening to former voters and to the mp5 that do certainly feel that they are not involved, they are not being consulted, being asked how things might play out in their constituencies, if that behaviour changes, i think there is potential, because it is only two years since there was a resounding 80 seat majority that the prime minister one, and as we said earlier, i think he still has some credit in the bank for that, but that credit is quickly moving away. the other question is also about the protests nature of his vote. the lib dems have overturned quite a sizeable conservative majority in by—elections before, even bigger than this one. look at richmond when goldsmith resigned. in general elections some seats have gone back to the conservatives and that potential is there, but it does mean that the government needs to listen more and needs to change direction on a few things. polly, can the liberal democrats deliver for the people of north rocks are? shy, people of north rocks are? by—election doesn't change really anything in terms of the political settlement in westminster. i think it will change very little for structure although i expect that they will have a good hard—working local mp, it is one of the liberal democrats calling cards is that they do a lot more leaflets and a lot more that you would see surgeries and local campaigning. and that is their pets, really is that you will have the best local champion who won't get caught up in the machinations and the complexity of national party politics. i expect that helen will be a really good mp but this in the end isn't about, and it is why by—elections come with so many different sets of voter behaviour to general elections is that it is very substantially about sending a message and sending a message to the conservative party that lots and lots of their stalwart supporters, and you know north rocks is a constituent be that stayed conservative throughout the blair years and turned yellow at this by—election is really, really very significant. to have that many conservative voters who simply cannot bear to hold their nose and go out and vote for boris johnson's team or are willing to switch their vote is genuinely remarkable and a real sign that the conservatives have two listen in a different way and offer something different to their voters. the question the remains whether they are capable of that. boris johnson is not a person who has really changed over the course of his lifetime. that bombast and kind of messy, chaotic lifestyle, political campaigning that he does, that is borisjohnson. he doesn't have another speed. and that is i think the question for conservative backbenchers now is to think, can they really expect him to when another general election if people like voters in north shropshire are starting to feel like they want something different. filth starting to feel like they want something different. 0k polly mackenzie — something different. 0k polly mackenzie and _ something different. 0k polly mackenzie and mo _ something different. 0k polly mackenzie and mo hussein, l something different. 0k pollyl mackenzie and mo hussein, do stick with us. let's go back to lewis goodall in the studio. had this come about? owen patterson. _ had this come about? owen patterson, the _ had this come about? owen patterson, the conservative | had this come about? owen - patterson, the conservative mp, former northern ireland cabinet minister held the seat since 1997, conservative stalwart, achieved over 60% of the vote at the last general election and the seat. he had been involved in a lobbying scandal and without going into all of the details, effectively the house of commons which polices itself on this matter, had said that they believe that mr patterson, as a result of these very significant lobbying transgressions should be barred from the house of commons for 30 days. mr patterson did not accept this lying down, he totally refused to accept the validity of thatjudgement and indeed managed to get through one form or another the agreement of the conservative party and the government to threaten to vote against that suspension and indeed that's what they did. this caused an enormous conflagration within parliament stopping the opposition said that the conservative party had effectively dismantled the standard system around one man and that could possibly be tenable stopping the government then retreated from that and set actually we're not going do that after all, we're not going to reform the standard system around mr and then mr patterson, so aggrieved did he feel by all of this, talking about actual world of politics, decided to resign. one of the many difficult things which flows from this for boris johnson is that that need not have taken place, if mr patterson hadn't prosecuted that with such vigor, if number ten had turned around to him and said look when i'm afraid we think that actually probably you should take that 30 day suspension, take it lying down and we don't take that there will be this enormous animus against this annual constituency, it will go away then ms patterson might not have liked it but he would probably still be an mp, that 30 day period would have expired by now and we wouldn't be set here at four o'clock in the morning talking about how we might have just had the morning talking about how we might havejust had one of the biggest, or certainly looks like we will have had one of the biggest by—election upsets of recent times on top of one that camejust six of recent times on top of one that came just six months ago in chesham and amersham for the dems again conservatives as well. and it would be that charge not only that boris johnson will be less popular than the conservative party thought he was but also that the political incompetence that led to the by—election in the first place was so severe that will be one of the most difficult things for boris johnson to deal with in terms of his parliamentary party. let's not forget how we ought to place this in the context of what has happened this week where borisjohnson had one of the worst rebellions we have seenin the worst rebellions we have seen in recent times, about 100 of his own mps voting against him on covid over his covid policy. 100 of his own mps basically saying parameters that we don't agree with you when you are turning around and saying i prime minister think we need this in order to keep the health of this country safe, prime minister, we think you are wrong, you are going down completely the wrong track. and the fact of the matter is that borisjohnson's authority over that bit of the conservative party and his authority to come back and say maybe we need more restrictions, already very, very curtailed copy frankly in light of this result will be even more limited by let's go back to our two guest, polly mackenzie and also mo hussein a former chief press at downing street. will borisjohnson take personal responsibility for this? ., ~' personal responsibility for this? ., ~ , ., ., this? hello i think you are speaking _ this? hello i think you are speaking to _ this? hello i think you are speaking to osmo - this? hello i think you are speaking to osmo but - this? hello i think you are speaking to osmo but we | this? hello i think you are - speaking to osmo but we can't quite hear you. speaking to osmo but we can't quite hearyou. i speaking to osmo but we can't quite hear you. i will try again. is borisjohnson going to take personal responsibility for this? , ~ ., , to take personal responsibility for this? , ,, ., , ., for this? yes i think he has to civen for this? yes i think he has to given the _ for this? yes i think he has to given the events _ for this? yes i think he has to given the events we've - for this? yes i think he has to given the events we've seen i given the events we've seen over the last week or so, and the huge rebellion, he is under a lot of scrutiny. you saw him use his personal capital with mps, to try to convince them but they didn't listen, so all eyes are now going to be on him and showing some sort of contrition, showing the signal about how things might now be different is going to be quite important stop think the other thing that he will have to think about is a question around what is the actual policy response to this, because if we looked at the chesham and amersham election result there are clearly issues around planning reform that the government hasn't acted upon. this seems quite different in terms of a very long held conservative seat in a leave voting area of the country, i think the government will struggle to identify any issues that they can quickly turn around and in the absence of that, taking personal responsibility and showing more contrition will be even more important. contrition will be even more important-— important. that is not something _ important. that is not something boris - important. that is not i something boris johnson is traditionally something borisjohnson is traditionally known for, showing contrition. are we're going to see people taking the blame for this around him but the prime minister not ultimately taking responsibility himself? well there will always _ responsibility himself? well there will always be, - responsibility himself? vii there will always be, there is already talk of people around him in downing street perhaps not being as affect, the kind of advice that is getting, will there be movement on that, i suspect there probably will be, particularly when the report comes out to the christmas parties and the like. however, i do that a lot of people will be looking for something more than that, rather than just rearranging the people around him, because there were big departures last year with dominic cummings and the people, the premise has also recently done a cabinet reshuffle so it's notjust about changing the people around you, i think it is about taking some personal responsibility and saying how you are going to do things differently and how you are going to work friendly as well. polly, mo mentioned there are issues like brexit, hs two, that normally when support for conservative candidates, what was it that won the votes of the liberal democrat candidate in this election? it’s the liberal democrat candidate in this election?— in this election? it's that promise _ in this election? it's that promise of— in this election? it's that promise of being - in this election? it's that promise of being a i in this election? it's that promise of being a good | in this election? it's that i promise of being a good local champion. but it's also, i'm fundamentally here, this is about those unforced errors. it's about the owen patterson scandal in the first place. the idea of tolerating, almost permitting this scandal to go unmarked and thought of changing the rules to enable someone to get away with having broken the rules but i think that sort of against people's sense of naturaljustice. and then you then follow that which is why people are heading to the ballot box at all with an extraordinary series of revelation about parties, about i guess contempt really for voters who have been through an extraordinarily difficult nearly two years of covid restrictions and who, you know, almost universally have complied with those rules, given up on family and friends and contacts in that run—up to christmas, that sense this government doesn't stand for them and people like them. this absolutely is a by—election that boris johnson absolutely is a by—election that borisjohnson and the behaviour of the team around him have lost for them. and the liberal democrat are a convenient party with a relatively good track record of council elections and a sense that they are offering something which is slightly outside of national politics and is an opportunity to say we want something better from and is an opportunity to say we want something betterfrom our politicians and we don't want to be treated with contempt, is i think the most important thing in politics, is for voters to feel that you take them seriously, that you respect them. and that, i think, is what has been lost by the government in the last few weeks and it will be very difficult for them to regain that stopping there's only so many a prime minister can essentially clear out his top staff and get in new people promising a new start. the reality is that leadership comes from the top and boris johnson has set the agenda for his party, for his style of government. he doesn't really have a set of policies that he wants to accomplish. as manifesto as optimism but if that doesn't come with a solid track record of delivery, what is the point of voting for a kind of continued conservative party if they are just going to essentially treat voters as voting fodder to get them into positions of power which they then exploit. 50 positions of power which they then exploit.— then exploit. so if confirmed and we are _ then exploit. so if confirmed and we are expecting - then exploit. so if confirmed and we are expecting the i then exploit. so if confirmed l and we are expecting the boat potentially as soon as in the next few minutes, what will be the first job next few minutes, what will be the firstjob of next few minutes, what will be the first job of the next few minutes, what will be the firstjob of the liberal democrat candidate? get the first job of the liberal democrat candidate? get some rest. i democrat candidate? get some rest- i think _ democrat candidate? get some rest. i think that's _ democrat candidate? get some rest. i think that's the - democrat candidate? get some rest. i think that's the most i rest. i think that's the most important thing. david won't be able to visit because he is isolating with covid but another liberal democrat is there so there will be a lot of celebration and she has to give a speech, i expect that she will send some kind of national political messages through that, but a by—election is absolutely gruelling for everybody. i expect a main priority will be to sleep and get out a thank you leaflet and then frankly just get out a thank you leaflet and then franklyjust come back in then franklyjust come back in the new year, make a speech in parliament when she has confirmed into that seat but you know, this isn't a transformation for north rupture, really in terms of their party of government, by—elections are different from that. can be a local campaigner, find those issues, raise them in parliament, ask questions, try to get attention for those issues but the opportunity here for the country as this message sent by those voters of north shropshire having any impact on the stability of borisjohnson, his relationship with his backbenchers or, most importantly, on the direction of policy and i think mo made important point there around after chesham and amersham, reasonably easy to see what the policy changes are, with the exception of the rural voters, with or farming weekly show a massive drop—off in support for the conservative party that possibly issues around if the rural vote, possibly issues around if the ruralvote, but possibly issues around if the rural vote, but really this is about don't be corrupt, don't have parties, follow rules that you decide to pass yourself, and that requires a different kind of political culture, which it is very difficult for the kind of man borisjohnson is who is not somebody who thinks that following the rules and being loyal and being respectful is frankly the way to conduct himself, it is really difficult for him to impose that cultural change, and ajohn impose that cultural change, and a john major back to basics cultural style change didn't work either, onto a party, there will be huge demands tickly from the 2019 and take who have i think quite a different relationship with power, with westminster, with a sense of entitlement that so many of the older generation of several of mps ten to have. just very briefly if you can, do you think if it hadn't been for these revelations about these downing street parties that this might have been a safe when for the conservatives? , ~ conservatives? yes i think the ma'ori conservatives? yes i think the majority may _ conservatives? yes i think the majority may well _ conservatives? yes i think the majority may well have - conservatives? yes i think the majority may well have been l majority may well have been slashed because it will was owen patterson's former seat and people will remember the hole to buckle around that, but these other revelations have certainly not helped in terms of they've chipped away and eroded at a trust and they've been covered and talked about everyday and so for the last few week and i think will do remember the one rule for us and one rule for them thing and they don't like it, so i think that has certainly contributed. 0k that has certainly contributed. ok that's great. if you are justjoining us it isjust coming up to four o'clock in the morning, you are watching bbc news. thank you to mo hussein and polly mckenzie for joining us copy we are expect results imminently and the north structure by—election. here in the uk a declaration is expected imminently in the north structure by—election and what is being seen as a big test prime minister boris johnson's leadership. voters were electing a new mp following the resignation of owen patterson who stood down in the wake of a row over his conduct after breaking lobbying. it is a picture is now of north rupture, live pictures, we are expecting this declaration eminently. the conservative party �*s had an mp in this area for almost 200 years, very safe out—of—state so any defeat is likely to intensify questions over boris johnson's leadership. the liberal democrats earlier said they expected not only to when but to win comfortably. we will bring you the latest result as we have at here on bbc news. please do stick with us, we will get the correspondence on the ground in the next few moments. welcome if you are watching pbs in america or around the world. this is bbc news. we are expecting live result imminently from the north shropshire by—election in a vote that is a true test for boris johnson's vote that is a true test for borisjohnson's leadership and boris johnson's leadership and also borisjohnson's leadership and also for his conservative party. mo hussein is former conservative special adviser and chief of press at downing street. he isjoining us. we are also joined by polly mackenzie, who is chief executive of demos and former special adviser to nick clegg. we are expecting this result imminently. how well do you know the candidate, and what kind of mpc will be? i know the candidate, and what kind of mpc will be?— kind of mpc will be? i don't know her— kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at _ kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, _ kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, but - kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, but i i kind of mpc will be? i don't know her at all, but i think| kind of mpc will be? i don'tl know her at all, but i think it has been clear in this

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