hello there. we start in the us, where the federal reserve has signalled the era of ultra—cheap money is coming to an end — sooner and faster than anyone was expecting. the world's most powerful central bank says it will stop pumping money into the bond market next march and may raise interest rates three times next year, with further rises to come. the us economy has recovered strongly from the pandemic and for the fed the big worry now is soaring inflation, which has hit a ao—year high. samira hussain reports from new york. to know one's great surprise, fedi chairjerome powell is now saying that inflation is a problem he probably needs to address. now, the chair of america's central bank had already said back in november that we could no longer really describe inflation as transitory. while now, in this latest press conference after the fed policy meeting, mr powell was a great pains to admit that actually risks to persistent inflation have increased.— persistent inflation have increased. ., ., , increased. inflation may be more persistent _ increased. inflation may be more persistent and - increased. inflation may be more persistent and that l increased. inflation may be i more persistent and that may increased. inflation may be - more persistent and that may be putting inflation expectations under pressure and that the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased. it has certainly increased. it has certainly increased. it has certainly increased. i don't think it's high at this moment, but i think it has increased and that's part of the reason behind our move today is to put ourselves in a position to be able to deal with that risk stop and i think we are in a position to deal with at risk. by position to deal with at risk. by doubling how quickly it reduces its bond buying programme and signalling about three interest rate rises next year, the federal reserve believes it can handle whatever happens with inflation stock but, of course, the other big risk is omicron. and what that new variant will do to the american economy. thomas hoenig is distinguished senior fellow at the mercatus center think tank in washington — he served as a member of the fed's polic making committee for two decades, between 1991 and 2oiiin your —— committee for two decades, between 1991 and 2011. thank you so good forjoining me. it is good to see you. we were expecting such an aggressive stance in response to us inflation?— to us inflation? festival, thank you _ to us inflation? festival, thank you for _ to us inflation? festival, thank you for having - to us inflation? festival, thank you for having me. to us inflation? festival, i thank you for having me. to answer your question, yes, was expecting at least this much of a change of policy to accelerate the end of a very expansionary policy that has been going on for nearly two years now. so it's no surprise, i think, that the fed has realised it is somewhat behind the curve and it has to pick up the curve and it has to pick up the case —— pace. it appears that the market think that peaceis that the market think that peace is about right for now, but whether it is or not will be defined by inflation numbers the next 2— three months, at least for this stage of their more aggressive policy. how does that — more aggressive policy. how does that inflation _ more aggressive policy. how does that inflation outlook look like to you over the next two or three months or so. because, as you say, it is at a 40 because, as you say, it is at a a0 year high right now in the united states. i 40 year high right now in the united states.— united states. i think they will continue _ united states. i think they will continue to _ united states. i think they will continue to be - united states. i think they | will continue to be increase inflationary pressure for the next 2— three months, number one, supplies are more than transitory, as you heard chairman kelce, but it is not just the logistics. there are trade tensions globally right now, there are issues with labour supply in the united states and may more broadly than that that is affecting the supply side of things. there is, in structural effects, the baby boom generation that may have left because of the covid virus, may not be coming back at all, so those are things on the supply side or the monetary policy has been highly accommodating, well past the beginning of the recovery of the united states at $120 billion every month of new high—powered money, the new reserve being put into the banking system, a very aggressive policy that carried forward. and that's nowjust beginning to taper. even as they go through march they are going to be in an expansionary monetary policy position as the continue bond buying, just at a slower pace, so there is no interest—rate increase anticipated until after that, he made it clear today. so i think inflation is going to be here for a while and they are going to be having to dealing with this through at least 2022 and 2023 as i think their actions today suggested they realised. ., , actions today suggested they realised. . , ., actions today suggested they realised. ., , ., . realised. certainly here for a while and — realised. certainly here for a while and also _ realised. certainly here for a while and also president - realised. certainly here for a l while and also president biden has declared as cost—of—living crisis, if you will, a top priority for him. i wonder how independent you believe the fed is able to be in the face of such politicisation of inflation.— such politicisation of inflation. ~ ~ ., inflation. well, i think that will be an _ inflation. well, i think that will be an issue. _ inflation. well, i think that will be an issue. i- inflation. well, i think that will be an issue. i think - inflation. well, i think that will be an issue. i think we will be an issue. i think we will find out in the next year orso will find out in the next year or so how that can be, because it has been part of the demand creation in the economy. and remember, in the united states we still have a recently passed infrastructure bill which will increase spending and we have this bill back that a bill which is a social programme thatis which is a social programme that is fairly expensive and that is fairly expensive and that will have to be funded, probably with more debt, that will put enormous pressure on the federal reserve to buy some of that debt to keep interest rates down. it will be a real challenge for the federal reserve and their independence will be tested, i believe don pyke thomas hoenig, thank you very much for your time. you are very welcome. let's turn to the uk now, where the bank of england makes its policy decision in a few hours time. it's facing a near—impossible dilemma — caught between omicron on one side and inflation on the other. as you've been hearing, on wednesday the uk recorded the highest number of infections since the pandemic began. and warnings from the business world about the economic damage are growing. but figures also out on wednesday showed inflation at a ten—year high, raising pressure on the bank to raise rates. here's our economics editor, faisal islam. there's not just here there's notjust here in cardiff that inflation is reaching ever dizzy heights. across the nation prices are rising at their face does fastest rates in a decade driven by record petrol prices, as well as spacing gas and electricity, and our clothing and food price rises. raising questions about how quickly it will come down to earth. the official rate of inflation reached 5—.1% in november, the highest level since 2011, and well over double the rate touted by the bank of england. the older unofficial price index retail measure still used by some government departments and to set some bills reached 7-.1%, the and to set some bills reached 7—.1%, the highest level in over 30 years. this reflect the everyday experience of those at the cardiff christmas markets, with widespread price pressures and now uncertainty over the spread of the variant.- and now uncertainty over the spread of the variant. food has one spread of the variant. food has gone up. _ spread of the variant. food has gone no. travel— spread of the variant. food has gone up, travel has _ spread of the variant. food has gone up, travel has gone - spread of the variant. food has gone up, travel has gone up. i gone up, travel has gone up. everything to do with everyday living, really. so people are still buying, but i think they are considering it more carefully. are considering it more carefully-— are considering it more carefull . ~ , carefully. the importer metis has gone _ carefully. the importer metis has gone no. _ carefully. the importer metis has gone up, and _ carefully. the importer metis has gone up, and lots - carefully. the importer metis has gone up, and lots of - carefully. the importer metisl has gone up, and lots of other things. — has gone up, and lots of other things, like diesel at the moment, isjust increasing the cost: _ moment, isjust increasing the cost, because we have had such a long _ cost, because we have had such a longtime _ cost, because we have had such a long time in lockdown people have _ a long time in lockdown people have a — a long time in lockdown people have a little bit more spare money _ have a little bit more spare mone . ., , ., money. if, as we fear, there ma be money. if, as we fear, there may be some _ money. if, as we fear, there may be some further - money. if, as we fear, there may be some further sociall may be some further social restrictions, what will they do to consumer confidence? i imagine it would kill it. to consumer confidence? i | imagine it would kill it. the same uncertainty _ imagine it would kill it. the same uncertainty affects the decision—makers of the bank of england. significant price rises are with us for months to come. just how many months depends on whether price rises lead to wage rises and then further price rises will kind of spiral. but the fact that unemployment did not rise after the end of the furlough scheme means the bank of england thinks it has the green light to start raising interest rates slowly. but energy prices will continue to rise into next year, affecting those on fixed incomes, such as chrissy, a pension and somerset, whose bills have gone from £1000 a year to over £2000. just incredibly _ year to over £2000. just incredibly worrying, - year to over £2000. inst incredibly worrying, because you don't know where it will end, how much more is it all going up? it is mainly energy. there are other things as well. but take —— petrol. there are other things as well. but take -- petrol.— there are other things as well. but take -- petrol. with things u . but take -- petrol. with things up further and interest - but take -- petrol. with things up further and interest rates i up further and interest rates up up further and interest rates up as well, it will be a tricky balancing act for many households this winter. faisal islam, bbc news, in cardiff. janet mui is investment director at the wealth managers brewin dolphin here in london. what are you expecting to hear today? good morning, victoria, thanks for having me. we are not expecting the bank of england to raise interest rates today, primarily because of the omicron uncertainty. so basically inflation is at a decade high and the labour market is pretty strong, so it is not because of omicron, we would look at them planning to raise interest rates, but because of omicron i think they have to busche back until sometime next year instead. the bank of england has often adopted this sort of wait—and—see approach, but what was often described as transitory inflation is clearly not going away. is there another way to deal with inflation without killing companies struggling with staff shortages as a result of omicron and also supply chain problems that happening globally? it problems that happening aloball ? , ., problems that happening globally?— problems that happening aloball ? ,., , globally? it is a very tricky situation, _ globally? it is a very tricky situation, because - globally? it is a very tricky situation, because a - globally? it is a very tricky situation, because a lot i globally? it is a very tricky situation, because a lot ofj situation, because a lot of that inflation pressure is actually global in nature in relation to energy cost and i think you can have some specific problems in relation to energy, because we have the potential price lifting next year as well. that would put further pressure on households. i think what the bank of england can do is basically provide some signalling and guidance. so even though they may not raise interest rates this month, they will have to guide markets and businesses that they will have to raise interest rates sometime next year or and probably 2— three times to deal with that inflation problem. so i think it provides some anchoring of inflation that now it is high and it is going to moderate. that inflation expectation so that the wage growth will not spiral upwards. i think we bank of england and policymakers can do more to anchor inflation expectation on that front, rather than the challenge of controlling things that they can't, which is external factors. can't, which is external factore— can't, which is external factors. , ., ~ ., ~ can't, which is external factors. , . ~ ., ~ , ., factors. janet mui, thank you very much- — factors. janet mui, thank you very much. janet _ factors. janet mui, thank you very much. janet mui - factors. janet mui, thank you very much. janet mui from i very much. janet mui from brewin dolphin.— very much. janet mui from brewin dolphin. to turkey now, where a deepening currency crisis could be about to get worse. the turkish lira has lost half its value since the start of the year. it's down 30% this month alone. inflation is soaring, but president erdogan has been putting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to boost the economy, which it has done for three months in a row. and is widely expected to do again later today, risking a further sell—off in the lira. our reporter victoria craig is in istanbul, where she's been following the story. victoria, is a bad situation about to get worse?- victoria, is a bad situation about to get worse? well it could be. — about to get worse? well it could be, victoria. - about to get worse? well it could be, victoria. as - about to get worse? well it could be, victoria. as you | could be, victoria. as you said, the central bank today will have its rate decision at 11am local time, a couple of hours from now. it is widely expected it will cut interest rates, as you say, for the fourth straight month of a row by one percentage point. central bank decisions, things don't always go according to expectations. but the issue is what investors and people here are really concerned about is what happens after that, because, as you say, the lira has yet almost half its value so far this year and that has taken spending power away from the people who are living here. increases at supermarket happen almost every single day, we talk to some supermarket employees who have to reprice products and they say could take them a day, but they have the system down now they do it so often that they can do it in a couple of hours. but even in the 20 minutes we were there we had customers complaining about the price increase of something slow cooking oil because it was one prize one day and they come in the next and it has soared by another 30%. things could be, if rates are cut again, and its pigs investors, things could get worse.- its pigs investors, things could get worse. 0k, we will leave it there _ could get worse. 0k, we will leave it there for _ could get worse. 0k, we will leave it there for the - could get worse. 0k, we will. leave it there for the moment. victoria craig in a sample for us awaiting that central bank decision. —— istanbul. let's turn to asia now, and the debt crisis at china's biggest real estate company evergrande. authorities are looking at ways to restructure the company which owes more than $300 billion. joining me now is our asia business correspondent, mariko oi. the company's chairman has been under a lot of pressure. indeed, and its shares have been on a rollercoaster ride today after it was reported that chinese authorities are now scrutinising the assets of evergrande as well as its billionaire chairman. as you said he has already been under quite a lot of pressure, he was summoned by government officials after the company warned that it may not be able to meet some of its financial obligations, of course last week it's believed that it missed two offshore payments, he is also reportedly been spending his own personal money to make some of those payment as well but this audit, if confirmed, goes a step further to assess the value of the company's assets and determine if there are also any head ones as well because that will allow the government decide whether a bailout is necessary and force as we have in saying, it is impossible to know exact what is happening in china with evergrande and while many don't act a complete bailout it appears evergrande's process is appears evergrande's process is a lot more complicated than originally expected, so how to limit the contagion without saving evergrande and its billionaire founder has been a tricky task for beijing, the company has reportedly now entered a debt restructuring process with chinese authorities and they are representatives from state—owned companies in the committee so there are rumours the company may be split into three or fourjust like aviation conglomerate hma when it went under. {eek aviation conglomerate hma when it went under.— it went under. 0k mariko oi in singapore _ it went under. 0k mariko oi in singapore for— it went under. ok mariko oi in singapore for us, _ it went under. ok mariko oi in singapore for us, thank- it went under. ok mariko oi in singapore for us, thank you i singapore for us, thank you very much. stay with us on bbc news. still to come: out of this world. interest in science fiction has soared, but who will win this year's prestigious hugo awards for the genre? saddam hussein is finished because he killed our people, ourwomen, our children. the signatures took only a few minutes, but they brought a formal end to 3.5 years of conflict — conflict that has claimed more than 200,000 lives. before an audience of world leaders, the presidents of bosnia, serbia and croatia put their names to the peace agreement. the romanian border- was sealed and silent today. romania has cut itself off from the outside world i in order to prevent the details of the presumed massacre - in timisoara from leaking out. from sex at the white house to a trial for his political life — the lewinsky affair tonight guaranteed bill clinton his place in history as only the second president ever to be impeached. this is bbc news, the latest headlines: concern's growing worldwide over the rapid spread of the omicron variant of coronavirus, with several countries recording a record number of cases. president biden has been visiting kentucky to see the devastation caused by this weekend's tornadoes. he described it as being �*almost beyond belief�*. to denmark now, where after a four—year trial, parliament has given the go—ahead to allow the production and export of medicinal cannabis, with new legalisation that comes into force at new year. adrienne murray paid a visit to denmark's third city, where there are hopes of establishing a hub for this emerging industry. it's not tomatoes or flowers growing under these bright lights. we have to wear protect clothing to go inside. this is where thousands of kilos of medicinal cannabis are legally produced. medicinal cannabis are legally -roduced. , medicinal cannabis are legally roduced. , ., ., ., produced. there is more than a dozen rooms — produced. there is more than a dozen roomsjust _ produced. there is more than a dozen roomsjust like _ produced. there is more than a dozen roomsjust like this - produced. there is more than a dozen roomsjust like this one | dozen rooms just like this one at this facility whether plants are grown without soil under bright led lights and in fact the smell is also quite intense.— the smell is also quite intense. , ., , ., the smell is also quite intense. , ., ., ., intense. there is no cap on how much can _ intense. there is no cap on how much can be — intense. there is no cap on how much can be grown _ intense. there is no cap on how much can be grown and - intense. there is no cap on how much can be grown and that. intense. there is no cap on how| much can be grown and that has attracted players from abroad, betting on denmark as a gateway to europe. we betting on denmark as a gateway to euroe. ~ to europe. we exported different _ to europe. we exported different pilot _ to europe. we exported i different pilot programmes to medicinal cannabis in europe so we have markets that germany, czech republic, malta, poland, uk and france. the czech republic, malta, poland, uk and france.— uk and france. the european market is— uk and france. the european market is worth _ uk and france. the europeanj market is worth an estimated $340 market is worth an estimated $3a0 million. market is worth an estimated $340 million. with market is worth an estimated $3a0 million. with an ideas, it could grow eightfold. it's mostly used to treat pain and other specific conditions stopping the pilots or firms invest millions, but after losses and regulatory hurdles, some players have left. with a new law there is renewed optimism for the future. we have now — optimism for the future. we have now a _ optimism for the future. - have now a good platform for extending our business and compete with competitors outside of denmark. there is still issues because it is also new to the authorities to prove products, we are still fighting with long approval timelines. parliament has green lighted a patient scheme to run another four years while more research is done stopping medical authorities appointed to gaps in data on efficacy and side effects and so far few physicians have taken part. denmark is growing europe's leading centre of medical cannabis. it deep ——we have 60% of all greenhouses in denmark is around this city so we know how to make things grow and we have also cited industries and labs, at the moment we have four of the world's producers of medical cannabis have invested. the use of medicinal cannabis is still debated but has more countries liberalise their laws it's that continued trend this budding industry is banking on. book sales have been surging during the pandemic, with science fiction and fantasy one of the more successful categories. this weekend is a big moment for the genre, with the announcement of the hugo awards winners at a convention in washington dc. the hugos are like the nobel prize for sci fi writing. mary robinette kowal is chair of the discon iii event — and a multiple hugo award winner herself — she's nominated for best novel this year. many congratulations on that nomination. the last year, to be perfectly frank, as felt like being trapped inside a dystopian sci—fi novel for everyone. what impact do you think it has had or will have on the tone and the content of this year's event? science—fiction always reflects the zeitgeist of the moment. during the atomic error, that is when we had all of this atomic punk. it's something that you see the golden age of science fiction so i am absolutely certain that we will see a lot of things that are influenced by pandemic, not necessarily pandemic direct lee, but things that reflect the sense of being trapped, of being isolated from ourfriends and family, i am sure that is going to show up in fiction. looking at the award winners, previous award winners, they have accurately predicted everything from cars to mobile phones to the internet. what are the current preoccupations of sci—fi writers and what do they see in our stars? the current — they see in our stars? the current preoccupation i they see in our stars? tue: current preoccupation is a they see in our stars? tue current preoccupation is a lot of climate concerns. and the future that people are pretty thing for the planet is not a rosy one unfortunately. basically what we do as we look at historical trends and try to extrapolate from that for the future. so it's... i wish they could say good things about the future but looking at science—fiction i think you are looking at some planet disaster and authoritarian governments. great! looking forward to that. laughter brilliant. i assume that this is to be a pretty male dominated genre the nominees, there are a lot of women this year. is that representative and what impact has a feminine intake had on the genre, or not? does it matter at all?— the genre, or not? does it matter at all? it's important to remember— matter at all? it's important to remember that _ to remember that science—fiction was invented by a woman. our science—fiction was invented by a woman. 0ur modern understanding of it comes from frankenstein by mary shelley. and in the united states for decades, and i can only speak to the us numbers, it's been written roughly by 52% men and a8% women but when you look at who gets the reviews, who gets the shelf space, it's always the shelf space, it's always the men over and over again and we are seeing a shift via stopping with a mixture happening. it's not that we haven't been involved in writing this stuff from the very beginning. avia butler, ursula le guin, they have been these giants... —— octavia butler. it'sjust now these giants... —— octavia butler. it's just now people are paying attention to the fact that women and people of colour and lgbt queue plus folks —— lgbtq. have always been involved but now our voices are being heard. i have very fine _ voices are being heard. i have very fine and _ voices are being heard. i have very fine and resolve - voices are being heard. i have very fine and resolve ursula i voices are being heard. i have| very fine and resolve ursula le guin novels actually, i head completely forgotten about her as an author. thank you very much for your time, best of luck with the awards and the event this year thank you. thank you so much. before a go let's have a quick look at the markets because there's been all this fear and what markets are gonna do about it. asian stocks following wall street higher on thursday. there is some concern about the lack list on chinese tech stocks, investors pouring billions of dollars into inflation linked assets at the moment. so there is where the us markets ended up at the end of the day. and the big policy decision of course from the bank of england at midday today. plenty more business available on the website. it has been a pleasure as always. i will see you very soon. hello there. temperatures were as high as 1a degrees on wednesday, and the rest of the week will stay mild. i suspect many of us, though, will continue to see cloudy skies like this. there was some sunshine, though, across a good part of yorkshire and lincolnshire on wednesday, but these areas with those clearer skies are starting a bit colder on thursday morning. mild elsewhere underneath that blanket of cloud. could be some mist and fog patches with those clearer skies across parts of northern england, even down into norfolk as well. we'll see those mist and fog patches lifting, and the best of the sunshine more likely to be to the east of the pennines, in the north—east of england. a lot of cloud around elsewhere. there's a bit of rain and drizzle across northern parts of scotland, becoming more confined towards the northern isles. whether you've got the cloud or not, though, it's still a mild day for the time of year. temperatures widely in double figures once again. now, high pressure is building in across the uk. that's why it's so quiet, but that high pressure is bringing with it a good deal of cloud. now, the cloud could just be thick enough to give one or two spots of drizzle across more southern parts of the uk, whereas again a mild start on friday. a little bit chillier across some eastern parts of scotland, the north—east of england, perhaps even into the north west of wales, where there could be a few breaks overnight. but as you can see, not a great deal of sunshine on offer on friday. the winds are light in most places, just picking up a touch there in the far south—west of england. and again, it's mild. 8—9 degrees more typically across northern parts of england and scotland. this time temperatures are starting to ebb away just a little. this weekend, though, we're going to hang on to the cloudy skies for most of the country. a lot of dry weather around as well, of course. limited amounts of sunshine means a limited amount of frost. it will be turning a bit colder as the weekend goes on. you can see we may have some sunshine across the north—east of scotland, perhaps west wales, into the far south—west of england, where there's a bit more breeze on saturday. but otherwise, it looks cloudy once again. and we may just sneak those temperatures across southern parts in particular into double figures. there's the area of high pressure. it's really taking a shine to the uk. it's not going to move very far at all during this weekend. so, again, the winds are likely to be light, but as you can see again it looks like it's going to be quite cloudy. that cloud could be quite low as well, so some mist and some fog potentially over some higher parts of the uk. and those temperatures beginning to drop away a little bit. it will feel a little bit chillier on sunday. good morning, welcome to breakfast with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. our headlines today. the worst is yet to come — a warning for people to be cautious about their christmas plans, as covid cases hit a new record. think carefully before you go. what kind of an event is it? are you likely to meet people who are vulnerable? are you going to meet loads of people you haven't met before. and get a test. new covid rules for large venues come into force across england — football fans and clubbers had to show a negative test or proof they've been fully vaccinated. an early breakthrough for england in the second ashes test, thanks to a brilliant catch byjoss buttler.

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