so, temperatures will be above the seasonal norm for the upcoming week. an unsettled start, then it settles down with lighter winds. we could start to see a lot of cloud around, limited sunshine and overnight mist and fog. hello, this is bbc news with shaun ley. we'll be taking a look at tomorrow morning's papers in a moment. first, the headlines. unless the government puts further restrictions in place, the uk faces a substantial wave of omicron infections next month that might overwhelm the nhs. that's the stark warning from scientists. another 633 omicron cases are recorded in the last 2a hours, the uk's biggest dailyjump in omicron infections so far. new rules on face masks, self isolation and vaccine passports will be voted on by mps in the commons on tuesday, according to government sources. hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me arejoe mayes, uk politics reporter at bloomberg and ros altmann, former pensions minister. and is now a conservative member of the house of lords. lovely to see you both again. you may remember that when we were in this spot on this channel 2a hours ago, one of my guests from a press office said he had lots of stories about what was going to be in the papers. let's see whether those warnings or threats were delivered. the telegraph suggests borisjohnson is set to face his first major cabinet revolt over a �*plan c�* of further covid restrictions in the fight against omicron. from a cabinet rebellion to a public backlash — the observer has spoken to behavioural scientists who say falling trust in the prime minister means some will ignore or even go against any new measures which might be introduced. the express thinks the week ahead will be one of reckoning for borisjohnson. the paper says as well as the nation's christmas plans, the prime minister's own premiership is hanging in the balance. and the times has got hold of leaked documents which say preparations are being made for the mass vaccination of primary schoolchildren as the fight against omicron intensifies, but the show must go on. the paper carries a photo of five primary school shepherds in west yorkshire, getting ready for their nativity play. something you can look forward to on the photographic side on the front of the papers. let's dig in. joining us, joe and ros, joe, do you want to kick us off this evening? just checking which paper we're starting with. i think it's the telegraph. do you want to kick off on that one? the potential cabinet result? , , ., , ~ , result? the big story next week is auoin to result? the big story next week is going to be _ result? the big story next week is going to be the — result? the big story next week is going to be the size of— result? the big story next week is going to be the size of the - going to be the size of the rebellion that borisjohnson going to be the size of the rebellion that boris johnson faces over bringing rebellion that borisjohnson faces over bringing in rebellion that boris johnson faces over bringing in these new plan b restrictions that he announced last week, particularly whether the cabinet are going to perhaps oppose him. this story reports that at least six have concerns about this move towards more draconian rules. it's also plan c, and when the government goes even further, those rising cases... the argument is we don't have the data yet on hospitalizations and deaths from the omicron variant. i think his reply, they say we have to play it safe and stop the spread now. it could be the case there will be death, and you have to move early. fascinating debate in that cabinet next week. certainly will be. would love to be a fly on the wall in the cabinet room. ros altman, what do you make love this? does it time with the mood music you've experienced? the main issue is what happens in the commons — main issue is what happens in the commons. and there is real anger among _ commons. and there is real anger among the — commons. and there is real anger among the tory backbenchers about the way _ among the tory backbenchers about the way it's— among the tory backbenchers about the way it's happening. in a way, it's started — the way it's happening. in a way, it's started perhaps with the owen patterson — it's started perhaps with the owen patterson affair, and that was the first big _ patterson affair, and that was the first big rebellion the prime minister tried to get the standards commission tossed aside with. and had to— commission tossed aside with. and had to u—turn within a very short time _ had to u—turn within a very short time period~ _ had to u—turn within a very short time period. those mps who voted with the _ time period. those mps who voted with the prime minister looks really foolish _ with the prime minister looks really foolish afterwards, felt very aggrieved and i think there is now this feeling that actually, what is being _ this feeling that actually, what is being done is being rushed through parliament. there isn't proper certainty, _ parliament. there isn't proper certainty, there isn't a proper analysis— certainty, there isn't a proper analysis of the costs of these measures, as well as the potential benefits _ measures, as well as the potential benefits. don't forget, if you look at the _ benefits. don't forget, if you look at the evidence in other countries such— at the evidence in other countries such as _ at the evidence in other countries such as south africa, the number of deaths _ such as south africa, the number of deaths from — such as south africa, the number of deaths from omicron is now starting to fail— deaths from omicron is now starting to fall rapidly. even though omicron has been _ to fall rapidly. even though omicron has been spreading really fast. so, the scientific evidence in other countries _ the scientific evidence in other countries from omicron and from many of the _ countries from omicron and from many of the scientists including those who developed the pfizer vaccine doesn't _ who developed the pfizer vaccine doesn't suggests that this is going to be _ doesn't suggests that this is going to be more lethal than other variants. _ to be more lethal than other variants, and a number of mps are also coming— variants, and a number of mps are also coming under pressure from constituents, saying, "please, constituents, saying, " please, please, — constituents, saying, "please, please, can we stop this nhs being only about — please, can we stop this nhs being only about covid?" we have got relatives — only about covid?" we have got relatives who are dying of cancer because — relatives who are dying of cancer because it — relatives who are dying of cancer because it was missed. we have friends who are suffering terrible depression and loneliness because of iockdown _ depression and loneliness because of lockdown. people with learning disabilities who are being shut away~ — disabilities who are being shut away~ so. _ disabilities who are being shut away. so, there are lots of serious costs _ away. so, there are lots of serious costs and — away. so, there are lots of serious costs and health from the measures. never— costs and health from the measures. never mind _ costs and health from the measures. never mind from covid. what costs and health from the measures. never mind from covid.— never mind from covid. what about the oint never mind from covid. what about the point that _ never mind from covid. what about the point that joe _ never mind from covid. what about the point that joe was _ never mind from covid. what about the point that joe was making, - never mind from covid. what about the point that joe was making, but | the point thatjoe was making, but the point thatjoe was making, but the difficulty is the timing? i take your point about people feeling it's turning into a covid service rather than a health service, but if we started to see numbers of hospitalisation, that would be reduced to a covid service because the people being admitted would be suffering with sufficiently needing hospital efficient... you can't know for certain, so you have to make a judgment. at some point, the government will have to make a call and go with what it thinks is the best assessment it can make of what will happen six weeks ahead, two months ahead. edit will happen six weeks ahead, two months ahead.— will happen six weeks ahead, two months ahead. .., , ., ., ., months ahead. of course, and none of this is easy- — months ahead. of course, and none of this is easy- itut _ months ahead. of course, and none of this is easy. but i _ months ahead. of course, and none of this is easy. but i think _ months ahead. of course, and none of this is easy. but i think what _ months ahead. of course, and none of this is easy. but i think what is - this is easy. but i think what is causing — this is easy. but i think what is causing such angst among so many of the tory— causing such angst among so many of the tory backbenchers who are determined to rebel against this partly— determined to rebel against this partly in — determined to rebel against this partly in order to for store any potential— partly in order to for store any potential plants in —— plan see, we were _ potential plants in —— plan see, we were originally supposed to be following the science. now we seem to be anticipating what the science might— to be anticipating what the science might show later. and we haven't really _ might show later. and we haven't really seen — might show later. and we haven't really seen the assumptions behind lots really seen the assumptions behind iots of— really seen the assumptions behind lots of the — really seen the assumptions behind lots of the modelling, and there are plenty— lots of the modelling, and there are plenty of— lots of the modelling, and there are plenty of scientists that are suggesting this is not as lethal. it's almost as if this debate is being — it's almost as if this debate is being had in a country which hasn't vaccinated — being had in a country which hasn't vaccinated. orat being had in a country which hasn't vaccinated. or at least offer the vaccine — vaccinated. or at least offer the vaccine to — vaccinated. or at least offer the vaccine to every single adult and to all the _ vaccine to every single adult and to all the most vulnerable people in the country. so, apart from the immunocompromised who we have to protect. _ immunocompromised who we have to protect. the _ immunocompromised who we have to protect, the vast majority of the population is not at risk in the same — population is not at risk in the same way— population is not at risk in the same way as they were. it would seem so far— same way as they were. it would seem so far this _ same way as they were. it would seem so far this time last year,... you so far this time last year, . .. you mentioned _ so far this time last year, . .. you mentioned the _ so far this time last year, . .. you mentioned the number- so far this time last year,... gm. mentioned the number of mps who might rebel. the front of the sunday times has 60 tories rebelling. i guess it might not help the government's case that to the left of that story is a story suggesting nhs staff need to jab children as young as five. given that the incidental man who resigned from the south essex conservative association said if they try and come for his daughter, they will have to get there him first. you're getting into other territory, people may not be voting just what's in front of them. we they may vote on what they fear may come next. just one point on _ what they fear may come next. just one point on vaccines which i think is motivating the government approach. they're being somewhat stupid by the escape of the omicron variant. in greeting data —— it did not protect you against omicron. one thing to bear in mind, but right to say we don't have that data yet. i think it's interesting to see what you might call the calibre of potential... when we talk about... a few were named in the story, and these were people who many think will be ministers come day, but the strength of the feeling at the party at the moment. they're so upset with how this is handled. apparently allies of theresa may are going to coalesce and resist the prime minister. you might remember how borisjohnson was opposed to her at the time, so perhaps that is well. j the time, so perhaps that is well. i noticed one of the memes was going around. it had theresa made doing one of her dance steps guiding boris johnson across number ten. it is personal. very interesting point about the potential people whose names might a prayer —— appear. it's wrong for government to say they're nothing to the government because they're people who are guaranteed to support the government. if not, they're out of a job. a point comes with the prime minister's authority has been weekend, and people start behaving in ways they wouldn't otherwise a. behaving in ways they wouldn't otherwise a— behaving in ways they wouldn't otherwise a. ~ ~ �* , . otherwise a. well, i think it's much too early to — otherwise a. well, i think it's much too early to say _ otherwise a. well, i think it's much too early to say that _ otherwise a. well, i think it's much too early to say that the _ otherwise a. well, i think it's much too early to say that the prime - too early to say that the prime minister— too early to say that the prime minister has got huge existential problems because the prime minister has come _ problems because the prime minister has come back from all sorts of things — has come back from all sorts of things. don't forget, this is not easy— things. don't forget, this is not easy for— things. don't forget, this is not easy for anybody. but certainly, there _ easy for anybody. but certainly, there are — easy for anybody. but certainly, there are a _ easy for anybody. but certainly, there are a number of pps 's and other— there are a number of pps 's and other trade — there are a number of pps 's and other trade invoice and so on who are determined to vote against the government on this on a point of principle — government on this on a point of principle because they believe this is not the — principle because they believe this is not the kind of country they want to live _ is not the kind of country they want to live in. _ is not the kind of country they want to live in, and it's not what they consider— to live in, and it's not what they consider the conservative party stands — consider the conservative party stands for. we're talking about people — stands for. we're talking about people who believe that there shouldn't be an authoritarian government that imposes rules, draconian— government that imposes rules, draconian rules, on people's lives. without— draconian rules, on people's lives. without sufficient evidence and without — without sufficient evidence and without sufficient parliamentary scrutinv — without sufficient parliamentary scrutiny. certainly, what they would like to _ scrutiny. certainly, what they would like to see — scrutiny. certainly, what they would like to see is that the prime minister— like to see is that the prime minister takes real notice and looked — minister takes real notice and looked more carefully at the evidence and thinks more carefully about— evidence and thinks more carefully about where will this end? if the vaccines— about where will this end? if the vaccines are not working, and there is no _ vaccines are not working, and there is no indication that the vaccines aren't— is no indication that the vaccines aren't protecting against serious illness— aren't protecting against serious illness and death, you may still catch it — illness and death, you may still catch it. many people will be asymptomatically stop but so far, the evidence is your vaccination doesn't — the evidence is your vaccination doesn't stop you going in the hospital— doesn't stop you going in the hospital or from dying. again, that's— hospital or from dying. again, that's borne out so far. it's early days, _ that's borne out so far. it's early days, but — that's borne out so far. it's early days, but there is a fundamental point _ days, but there is a fundamental point of— days, but there is a fundamental point of principle here. and i suspect— point of principle here. and i suspect that this is something that is not _ suspect that this is something that is not going to go away. just a bit of public information. the last bit of data we had suggested that the first two jabs, the impact had been, omicron was getting around them in a way it wasn't —— delta wasn't. but if you have the booster as well, that was building up sufficient protection. we talked about trying to get people's heads around the idea that two injections aren't as effective as we thought, but three are. there's something quite slightly counterintuitive. it's very complicated and i don't fully understand it. that is the evidence they seem to present. crosstalk. to try and fend off the omicron. it looks like they're trying to boost the booster problem. what looks like they're trying to boost the booster problem.— looks like they're trying to boost the booster problem. what the data is showin: the booster problem. what the data is showing is — the booster problem. what the data is showing is that _ the booster problem. what the data is showing is that the _ the booster problem. what the data is showing is that the standard - the booster problem. what the data is showing is that the standard two l is showing is that the standard two doses, _ is showing is that the standard two doses, the — is showing is that the standard two doses, the impact wanes after a few months _ doses, the impact wanes after a few months and — doses, the impact wanes after a few months and you can still catch covid — months and you can still catch covid it— months and you can still catch covid. it doesn't mean you will be seriously— covid. it doesn't mean you will be seriously ill — covid. it doesn't mean you will be seriously ill or die from it. butl seriously ill or die from it. but i was talking _ seriously ill or die from it. but i was talking specifically - seriously ill or die from it. put i was talking specifically about seriously ill or die from it. butt was talking specifically about the omicron variant. this was data that came out late friday.— omicron variant. this was data that came out late friday. what that data also shows is — came out late friday. what that data also shows is that _ came out late friday. what that data also shows is that being _ came out late friday. what that data also shows is that being freshly - also shows is that being freshly boosted — also shows is that being freshly boosted will give you and build back-up — boosted will give you and build back—up protection that would have waned _ back—up protection that would have waned from the first two doses. so, that's— waned from the first two doses. so, that's why— waned from the first two doses. so, that's why the government i think legitimately, and this is where i completely agree, is looking to boost _ completely agree, is looking to boost as— completely agree, is looking to boost as many people as possible, extend _ boost as many people as possible, extend the — boost as many people as possible, extend the booster programme to the over-30s _ extend the booster programme to the over—305 whether they have a fresh over—sos whether they have a fresh immunity— over—305 whether they have a fresh immunity injected into them, and that itself— immunity injected into them, and that itself should break the spread of the _ that itself should break the spread of the omicron variant which is the predominant one. you of the omicron variant which is the predominant one.— predominant one. you and i have had the booster- — predominant one. you and i have had the booster- l — predominant one. you and i have had the booster. i don't _ predominant one. you and i have had the booster. i don't know— predominant one. you and i have had the booster. i don't know yet - predominant one. you and i have had the booster. i don't know yet if- predominant one. you and i have had the booster. i don't know yet if joe i the booster. i don't know yet ifjoe has because he so useful. there's been some grumbling about that —— 6youthful. j’zre been some grumbling about that -- 6 outhful. �* . , ., , 6youthful. i've heard people turning u . 6youthful. i've heard people turning u- and 6youthful. i've heard people turning up and finding _ 6youthful. i've heard people turning up and finding they _ 6youthful. i've heard people turning up and finding they can't _ 6youthful. i've heard people turning up and finding they can't get - 6youthful. i've heard people turning up and finding they can't get the - up and finding they can't get the booster — up and finding they can't get the booster. from tomorrow, all over 305 and should _ booster. from tomorrow, all over 305 and should be able to sign up for a booster, _ and should be able to sign up for a booster, and we believe there is vertically— booster, and we believe there is vertically enough of the vaccine for all the _ vertically enough of the vaccine for all the boosters, and we're hopefully going to make sure that over the _ hopefully going to make sure that over the coming weeks, as many people _ over the coming weeks, as many people as — over the coming weeks, as many people as possible to get the booster _ people as possible to get the booster. even with two doses, there is some _ booster. even with two doses, there is some protection, of course, and the older— is some protection, of course, and the older people who are the most honourable to dying from covid will have generally speaking been offered the booster. �* ., , have generally speaking been offered the booster. �* ., _ ., ., , the booster. boris johnson was alwa s the booster. boris johnson was always accused _ the booster. boris johnson was always accused of _ the booster. boris johnson was always accused of being - the booster. boris johnson was - always accused of being somebody who was inclined to booster. i have to leave you with a photograph. this is a tease because we will talk about this in the next review. we're out of time. this is the front of the dating mirror. —— the daily mirror. taking part in a zoom quiz. people were able tojoin taking part in a zoom quiz. people were able to join the event on the zoom, but the prime minister is apparently acting as quiz master. more at just apparently acting as quiz master. more atjust past past 11:30 pm. this week, borisjohnson turned to the issue of compulsory covid vaccinations. i don't believe we can keep going indefinitely with nonpharmaceutical interventions. i mean, restrictions on people's way of life, and i think we're going to need to have a national conversation about the way forward. the prime minister wants this national conversation, because he knows this pandemic isn't over. covid daily infection rates in europe are going up. infection rates in the us are also going up. when we look at deaths and hospitalisations, there's a pattern. we're seeing still a pandemic of the unvaccinated here with more than 1,000 deaths a day in the us almost entirely of unvaccinated individuals. that's the us. it's the same in germany. it's very difficult to get staff motivated to treat patients now in this fourth wave. we are still seeing so many patients that are not vaccinated. this is the point we've reached with vaccination. the percentage of the overall population fully vaccinated in these richer nations is between 60% and 70%. compare that with africa where fewer than 8% of people are double jabbed. these vaccination rates are a problem three times over. first, even in the richest countries, healthcare systems are still exposed. listen to angela merkel as she stepped down as germany's chancellor. translation: in some parts of the country, i you can only describe it as dramatic. overfilled intensive care units, severely ill people who have to be flown across germany to get the care they need. the second issue is that if the developing world is undervaccinated, covid has a better chance of mutating. every person who's not immune to this virus is essentially a viral factory, and a viral factory is a variant factory. so, we just have to get the world immunised. the third factor is the new variant, omicron. certain features of omicron, including its global spread . and large number of mutations, suggested it could have a majorj impact on the course of the pandemic. - and when faced with this, there's a further problem because governments have been asking people to get vaccinated for months, and it's not been enough. austria's former chancellor admits as much. and we have done ten months of campaigning, of trying to persuade people, but still, we have a certain share, nearly one—third of the population which is hesitant. the question now is what to do about that, and in austria's case, it's decided to make covid jabs mandatory from february. it's a big move, its the first european country to do so. and here is thejustification. we want to break out of this vicious cycle of virus waves and discussions about lockdowns, and the only way, the only exit ticket we have is the vaccine. and if that's austria, the european union is also explicit about its thinking. it is understandable and appropriate to lead this discussion now, how we can encourage and potentially think about mandatory vaccination within the european union, this needs discussion. now, individual eu countries will make their own decisions on this. austria already has. in neighbouring germany, the new chancellor, olaf scholz, has signalled he wants to make vaccines mandatory. and already in germany, you can only go into restaurants, cinemas, leisure facilities and many shops if you've had the jab or are recently recovered. or there's italy, which now requires proof of vaccination in a range of places, including public transport. then there's new york city, which has vaccine requirements for children as young as five, and for workers in the public and private sectors. and this is the justification from the city's mayor. we cannot have shutdowns here in new york city. we've got to keep moving forward. and the answer, as always, is to use the things that work — vaccination works and vaccine mandates work. but if they work, as the mayor says, why do some people oppose vaccine mandates? well, first of all, there's the debate around individual liberty. we are a free country. i think everybody is, you know, entitled to their own opinion. if we are going to be mandated to have the vaccine, i think our freedom is being suppressed. but this connection between mandates and a loss of freedom is rejected by some. stig abell, a presenter on times radio, argues: we've heard similar arguments from presidentjoe biden as he's made the case for vaccine mandates. it is not about freedom or personal choice. - it's about protecting yourself and those around you. - but not everyone is buying this. biden's push for a nationwide vaccine mandate for private business is being challenged in the courts and republicans are among the most vocal critics. this is the governor of alabama tweeting: overreach of government. suppression of freedom. these are two criticisms here in the uk. health secretary sajid javid has other concerns as well. i think it's unethical and also i think that, at a practical level, having some kind of universal mandate for vaccination doesn't work. there's another issue as well — that forcing people to do something may deepen their resolve not to do it. this is the academic steven reicher. we're seeing resistance to stricter covid rules. these are protesters in austria earlier this month. there have also been protests in germany, the netherlands and several other countries, too. and this isn'tjust about a mistrust of government. it's also about a mistrust in healthcare, something that could be exacerbated by vaccine mandates. there are potential downsides of course in terms of decreasing trust in the medical system, decreasing trust in doctors in general, which could have negative consequences in the future. eroding trust in doctors is a possible risk if vaccines are mandated, and another argument against doing this is that covid isn't the only cause of pressure on healthcare systems. in an article in the guardian newspaper, professorjulian savulescu is quoted saying: though some would say covid vaccines are being used precisely to avoid healthcare collapse. and while we consider all of these arguments, it's worth remembering compulsory vaccines didn't arrive with this pandemic. back in the 19th century, vaccine mandates were used widely in europe to tackle smallpox. right now, many healthcare workers are told they have to get the flu vaccine. vaccine mandates have saved many lives, and the greek prime minister hopes this approach can work for covid. he is announcing compulsory vaccines for the over 60s. translation: i have no doubt that this political decision - will save human lives because vaccination becomes more than just compulsory. it saves lives. it's necessary for health. it's necessary for the whole society. there is a scientific consensus that higher covid vaccination rates are desirable, but there's no consensus about whether to compel people to get vaccinated is a good idea, and the world health organization in europe has this warning. translation: mandates around vaccination are an absolute last i resort and only applicable when all other feasible options to improve vaccination uptake have been exhausted. evidently, some countries believe they've reached that point and the polling suggests the public in some western countries may be on side. take germany. a survey published by the news weekly der spiegel last month found 72% of germans in favour of compulsory vaccines, 20% were against. but even if governments mandate vaccines, even if the public is persuaded, even if the court battles are overcome, this can only be part of the equation for the us and europe, because, once again, we need to play that famous phrase from doctor tedros. none of us are safe i until all of us are safe. and this is where the issue gets even more complicated because those in the west criticising people who won't get the jab are also benefiting from governments who've prioritised them getting three jabs over some in the world getting any. so, yes, the number of unvaccinated people is a majorfactor in the threat this pandemic poses, but mandating vaccines alone won't address that. there will need to be a fairer distribution of vaccines, too. hello there. temperatures have been rising slowly this weekend. i think sunday is going to be noticeably milder across england and wales, but we will have a lot of cloud around generally, outbreaks of rain, particularly in the north and west of the country, fighting with this area of low pressure. we're keeping an eye on this because it's going to skirt to the northwest of the country. could bring a spell of gales, i think, later on sunday, but it's also scooping up this very mild air, particularly for england and wales, but it's bringing a lot of moisture with it. so, generally a lot of cloud, mist and murk, some hill fog, a few spots of drizzle into the afternoon. perhaps a little bit of brightness across eastern areas, but this rain band will be spreading north across northern ireland, and then in towards central and northern parts of scotland. to the north of it, it's still quite cool. some sunshine to the south of it, very mild for the time of year. we could see 1a or 15 degrees in the mildest spots. it stays mild for the upcoming week as well. starts to settle down as we move deeper into the week as high pressure builds in, but i think sunshine will be very limited. there will be a lot of cloud around. this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. president biden pledges federal aid as tornadoes devastate a string of us states, flattening whole towns and killing at least 70 people: iam i am monitoring the situation very closely since early this morning. this is likely be one of the largest tornado outbreaks in our history. amazon says it's "heartbroken", after two of its workers are confirmed dead in a warehouse devastated by a tornado in illinois. the uk faces a substantial wave of omicron infections next month that might overwhelm the national health service — that's the stark warning from scientists. foreign ministers from the g7 wealthy countries meet and are "unified" in their concern over russia's military build up on its border with ukraine.

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