the only thing i can say to you all at this time what we need from everyone is we need your prayers, we need your help. britain warns russia it will face severe consequences if it invades ukraine a g7 meeting of foreign ministers is discussing rising tensions. and it's going to be a nail biter — first blood to max per step in beating lewis hamilton to pole position for tomorrow's title decider in abu dhabi with the men level on points. good evening. health officials have renewed their call, for everyone who's eligible, to get their covid boosterjab. new modelling suggests the uk could be facing a bigger wave of infections than back injanuary. the new omicron variant is thought to be spreading a further 633 omicron cases have been recorded in the past 2a hours. that is the uk's biggestjump in the new variant infection so far. but there's still uncertainty about how many people may need hospital care, and how much pressure will be on the nhs. here's our health correspondent, katharine da costa. at vaccine centres around the uk, including this one in grimsby, the race is on to get even more jabs into arms and boost our defences against what may become the biggest wave of covid infections we've seen so far. it's more worrying, i think, because we don't know exactly what's going to happen, so it's betterjust to be safe. ijust want to protect people as well that i'm going to be in contact with. the new variant omicron is spreading fast, doubling every 2.5 days. new modelling has looked at what that might mean for hospital admissions and deaths in england under plan b with greater use of masks and working from home. it's early work, but researchers say further measures may be needed. what we do know is that very stringent restrictions come with their own downsides that can be devastating for individuals, for their families and for businesses especially leading into christmas, so i think policymakers have some very, very difficult decisions to make. so, what does this mean for cases? well, researchers expect there to be a substantial wave, bigger than last winter when daily cases peaked at more than 50,000. there is still a lot of uncertainty about how many people might end up in hospital because we still don't know whether omicron causes a more severe illness and many people are fully vaccinated which should help. by the end of april, deaths may range from 25,000 to 75,000 depending on how well vaccines perform, but scientists are hopeful they will still provide good protection against a serious disease. we know that the booster doses do give very effective protection. we don't know how long it's going to last. it may not be very long lasting, but those booster doses are going to be critical but we can'tjust rely on the vaccine campaign to control this, we have to also wear masks and do all those other things that we have learned to do. this winter, we're in a better place thanks to vaccines, boosters and new antiviral drugs. the government says current measures in england are proportionate but won't hesitate to take further action if needed to protect lives and the nhs. let's discuss that modelling at all today's development with professor of operational research at university college london and a member of the group independent sage, a group of scientists and researchers. good evening. can we talk first of all about the modelling and the figures we have laid out there? it's not peer reviewed as we understand it, but do the figures stack up for you? do you think this is broadly the direction of travel? i think this is broadly the direction of travel? . ., , ., of travel? i mean, the models are done by this _ of travel? i mean, the models are done by this stage _ of travel? i mean, the models are done by this stage modelling - done by this stage modelling subgroup using the same models they have been using throughout the pandemic. what they've done is updated them for what we know about omicron and tried to incorporate lots of different uncertainties into it, so how transmissible it is, how much it can grow, from most pessimistic to most optimistic. the problem is that what they are showing is that even under the most optimistic scenario, we are looking at about 2000 admissions a day which is two thirds of the first peak and is two thirds of the first peak and is a very big strain on the nhs. 50 is a very big strain on the nhs. so 2000 admissions a day. what about what we keep hearing thus far which is that this new variant, for the most part, does not result in such severe illness was like i mean, what do you think of that? can we say that or do we not know that yet? we can't sa that or do we not know that yet? - can't say that. so what we can say is that as a population, we are a bit less susceptible to severe illness because we have a lot of previous immunity, so that should make it less severe and that's probably what we are seeing in south africa where they have had a lot of previous infection. the problem with omicron is that because it can re—infect people and infect people who had one or two doses of the vaccine, it means that we have millions more people who will get infected with omicron who would not get infected with delta and if you have high enough numbers, you will still get enough people needing in—hospital to put severe pressure on health services. in-hospital to put severe pressure on health services.— in-hospital to put severe pressure on health services. right. iwonder whether you _ on health services. right. iwonder whether you feel _ on health services. right. iwonder whether you feel it _ on health services. right. iwonder whether you feel it is _ on health services. right. iwonder whether you feel it is time - on health services. right. iwonder whether you feel it is time for - on health services. right. iwonder| whether you feel it is time for more public awareness of this, what do you feel the messaging should be to the public quiz night because a lot of people following this today would have that idea that it is not resulting in such severe illness, therefore why should we be so scared by these potentially big numbers? well, i think partly it's because you just don't know about other people and because it is so much more transmissible than delta, you are in a situation where even if you personally do not get that sick, you can potentially infect people who will get really sick. i think as a nation, we want to protect the nhs. it has already —— it is already exhausted after two years of such high pressure and any extra pressure from covid reduces services for everybody and we do not want to be in a situation where you cannot get sick of winter, so from just a community point of view, we want to reduce infection. qm. community point of view, we want to reduce infection.— reduce infection. 0k, understood. therefore. — reduce infection. 0k, understood. therefore, what _ reduce infection. 0k, understood. therefore, what is _ reduce infection. 0k, understood. therefore, what is your _ reduce infection. 0k, understood. therefore, what is your take - reduce infection. 0k, understood. therefore, what is your take on i reduce infection. 0k, understood. l therefore, what is your take on the current level of restrictions? we have that plea, you know, work from home if you possibly can across the uk, compulsory mask wearing in an awful lot of settings now, public transport, indoor settings, awful lot of settings now, public transport, indoorsettings, is there more that transport, indoor settings, is there more that could transport, indoorsettings, is there more that could and should be done, given your background on your knowledge?— given your background on your knowledue? ~ ~ ., ., knowledge? well, we know that there is more that can _ knowledge? well, we know that there is more that can be _ knowledge? well, we know that there is more that can be done _ knowledge? well, we know that there is more that can be done because - knowledge? well, we know that there is more that can be done because wel is more that can be done because we have done more in the past and i think, you know, the modelling you refer to earlier looked at the different stages that we went through in summer and each step that you go to higher levels of protection is does reduce deaths and admissions. what we do not know is quite how far we need to go because we do not know quite how severe it is going to be, but i am convinced that we are going to have to do more than we are doing now, yes. because ofthe than we are doing now, yes. because of the pressure _ than we are doing now, yes. because of the pressure on _ than we are doing now, yes. because of the pressure on the _ than we are doing now, yes. because of the pressure on the nhs? - than we are doing now, yes. because j of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on the nhs? because ofthe of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure _ of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on _ of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on the _ of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on the nhs _ of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on the nhs and - of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on the nhs and it - of the pressure on the nhs? because of the pressure on the nhs and it is l of the pressure on the nhs and it is moving so fast with this doubling every 2.5 days, it means that every week, it is getting four times worse and so you do not have a very long to decide what you are going to do. i think that is the big pressure right now, that the government will be forced to make decisions under incomplete knowledge because otherwise you are risking a really terrible situation in early january. well, you have pre—empted my next question because when would you expect to hear something? could be... i appreciate this is hypothetical and you are the scientist, not me, but could those who have to make these difficult decisions say, right, there is so much we still do not know, you have outlined so much of that, professor, that we are going to try something radicalfor two weeks, that we are going to try something radical for two weeks, three weeks, just for a very short period and see what difference it makes, for example? i what difference it makes, for example?— what difference it makes, for exam - le? ~' ., what difference it makes, for examle? ~' ., ., , example? i think if we were at any other time — example? i think if we were at any other time of— example? i think if we were at any other time of year, _ example? i think if we were at any other time of year, we _ example? i think if we were at any other time of year, we would - example? i think if we were at any other time of year, we would be i other time of year, we would be doing stuff now. it is because it is christmas and because christmas is coming the week after next that i think there is a big hesitation. wow, that is really interesting, actually. you feel it is driven by that? were absolutely understandable human reasons, we are all desperate to see family at christmas. it is to see family at christmas. it is for that, it _ to see family at christmas. it is for that, it is — to see family at christmas. it is for that, it is for _ to see family at christmas. it is for that, it is for retail, - for that, it is for retail, hospitality, for performing arts, this is the key time, so this is the worst time to do anything, so you are kind of in a situation where from a public health perspective, you definitely would. there is no doubt that you should. now, whether they will, i do not know, once they have weighed that up, but there will be more restrictions whether they come before christmas after christmas, i do not know. aha, come before christmas after christmas, i do not know. a quick thou~ht christmas, i do not know. a quick thought as _ christmas, i do not know. a quick thought as well _ christmas, i do not know. a quick thought as well about _ christmas, i do not know. a quick thought as well about blisters, i thought as well about blisters, then? given everything you have said, is this a situation where there needs to be plenty of messaging about the importance of the boosterjab as well? the messaging about the importance of the boosterjab as well? the booster 'ab as well? the booster is the boosterjab as well? the booster is absolutely — the boosterjab as well? the booster is absolutely crucial. _ the boosterjab as well? the booster is absolutely crucial. it _ the boosterjab as well? the booster is absolutely crucial. it has _ is absolutely crucial. it has effectively become, from two doors course to a third dose course, you are not fully vaccinated unless you have the third dose but children will not be in a situation to do that and we need to have school safer in january that and we need to have school safer injanuary or we will have another way through schools like we did this term. another way through schools like we did this term-— did this term. very interesting to talk to you. _ did this term. very interesting to talk to you, thank _ did this term. very interesting to talk to you, thank you _ did this term. very interesting to talk to you, thank you for - did this term. very interesting to talk to you, thank you for your i did this term. very interesting to i talk to you, thank you for your time on a saturday evening. let's just bring you those latest coronavirus figures which we have had in the last hour or so as well, the latest data, uk wide data. just over 5a,000 new infections recorded, in the latest 2a hour period. there were 132 deaths — that's of people who died within 28 days of a positive test. and more than 22.5 million people have received their boosterjab. new guidance has been issued for care home visits in england as a result of the surge in omicron infections. from wednesday, residents will be limited to three visitors as well as one friend or relative nominated as an essential caregiver. in care homes around the country, festive celebrations are well under way, but as well as the usual trimmings, for some families, fears about covid guidelines on separation from loved ones are making an unwelcome return. i from loved ones are making an unwelcome return.— from loved ones are making an unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and — unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it _ unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is _ unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is a _ unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is a limit _ unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is a limit of _ unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is a limit of three, - unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is a limit of three, so i seven and it is a limit of three, so i'm very worried about how this is going to impact on mum. the department _ going to impact on mum. the department of— going to impact on mum. the department of health say people living in care homes in england will only be allowed to receive visits from three people plus one essential care worker. staff will have to take three lateral flow tests and one pcr test every week. and there will be at £300 million fund to recruit and retain care workers. further clarity is expected on the guidance next week. for now, it is up to care home staff to plan how they will implement the measures and to reassure the people they will effect. it reassure the people they will effect. , , ., effect. it will be disappointing for relatives, effect. it will be disappointing for relatives. it _ effect. it will be disappointing for relatives, it will _ effect. it will be disappointing for relatives, it will be _ effect. it will be disappointing for relatives, it will be extremely - relatives, it will be extremely disappointing for the residents, but it is the _ disappointing for the residents, but it is the world that we live in. we cannot_ it is the world that we live in. we cannot risk— it is the world that we live in. we cannot risk getting this virus back into our— cannot risk getting this virus back into our care services. the vaccination _ into our care services. the vaccination programme i into our care services. tie: vaccination programme remains key into our care services. ti2 vaccination programme remains key to controlling the spread of omicron. extra resources will be sent to bolster protection, but in care homes like this one in norwich, another change to visiting rules has not brought much chair. i another change to visiting rules has not brought much chair.— another change to visiting rules has not brought much chair. i would not like that, but _ not brought much chair. i would not like that, but i _ not brought much chair. i would not like that, but i will— not brought much chair. i would not like that, but i will have _ not brought much chair. i would not like that, but i will have to - not brought much chair. i would not like that, but i will have to put i not brought much chair. i would not like that, but i will have to put up i like that, but i will have to put up with it. . ., ., like that, but i will have to put up with it. . . . with it. once again, the delicate balance between _ with it. once again, the delicate balance between offering i with it. once again, the delicate balance between offering covertj balance between offering covert protection but maintaining vital family contacts comes into focus. the government is insistent these guidelines will help manage growing risk. it's 30 minutes past six, some details have been sent to us from the metropolitan police about an incident in west london. we are hearing that a man has died after police activity over the last few hours, in fact, police activity over the last few hours, infact, to police activity over the last few hours, in fact, to try to explain what has happened, the met tells us it was called a little bit at the 3pm this afternoon to reports of a man with a firearm scene to enter our bank and the bookmakers in west london and he then left the area later on. armed officers stopped a vehicle in a different part of west london, shots were fired and, as this information says, a man sustained gunshot wounds and we hear that the man was treated but has subsequently died. the shooting was close to kensington palace in london. those are the first details they are coming out from the metropolitan police, clearly more information to come on that. just a reminder of the headlines. unless the government puts further restriction in place, their uk faces a substantial wave of omicron infections next month which may overwhelm the nhs. that is a new warning from scientists. another 633 cases of omicron have been recorded in the last 2a hours. that is the uk's biggest dailyjump in the new variant infections so far. in the states, at least to 70 people have been killed as a series of devastating tornadoes strike central usa including kentucky. in america, more than 70 people are thought to have died, after a series of tornados hit several states. kentucky has been worst affected, with the governor saying it's been one of the toughest nights in the state's history. in all, 30 tornadoes, were reported across a large swathe of the southeast. nomia iqbal has the full story. the us national weather service had issued several tornado warnings for multiple us states. in illinois this amazon warehouse was ripped apart by the storm after the roof partially collapsed. emergency responders have been working through the night. they had been on the night shift in the run—up to christmas. theirfamily members had been trying to find them. he was on the phone with me while it was happening. the tornado was hitting the back of the building, the trucks were coming in. i told him tojump at the track and duck. i decided to come down here to see what was going on. i had no idea the building look that bad, and i'mjust... i'm worried sick. ijust want to know if he's 0k. tornadoes tore a path through 200 miles, hitting the small town of mayfield. it's one thing when we know i the potential of the atmosphere. it's another thing when we it actually becomes a reality. i this was the bank. that's what's left of the fire department. there used to be two storeys to that building — now there is one. a black cylinder swept across the ground, slamming into a candle factory. the governor fears dozens may have been killed inside. this will be, i believe, the deadliest tornado system to ever run through kentucky. earlier this morning, about 5am, we were pretty sure we would lose over 50 kentuckians. i'm now certain that number is north of 70. it may in fact end up exceeding 100. in arkansas the storm hit a nursing home, killing at least one person, injuring several and trapping more than a dozen others inside. local reports have described it as a mass casualties event. 0ne official called it heartbreaking. millions of americans are being urged to prepare for weather alerts nationwide, as the storm continues to wreak havoc across the country. nomia iqbal, bbc news, washington. well, at least four kentucky counties were left devastated. 0fficials described mayfield in graves county as being �*ground zero'. mayorjesse perry was at a press conference a little earlier describing his feelings when he realised his county was going to be hit. you know, this is probably the toughest day of my life right here. when you run for office, you don't know what to expect, but when you see your communities and your county in this kind of situation, it's tough. it's tough on our communities, it's tough on our families. you know, last night, i was with my family and i was watching... we were watching the storm. we were watching noah and trent with the weather on the local six, and those folks did a really good job of informing what was going to happen, but i had an eerie feeling about it, i can tell you that. i didn't really feel good about it and as this thing was, as the governor said, for the 200 miles it was on the ground, watching it head towards graves county, you know, it was a reality at that time. so the only thing i can say to you all at this time, what we need from everyone is we need your prayers, we need your help. the mayor of graves county. just a little bit before that news conference, i spoke to the meteorologist noah berger in. we heard a little of him in the report, but i spoke to him at length when he was in midfield kentucky and he showed me the extent of the damage. that's the best explanation of this i can give you. i've been covering and following whether for my entire professional career and i speak for every meteorologist both in the united states and around the world that whether it's a hurricane or a tornado or a blizzard, it's one thing when we know the potential of the atmosphere, it's another thing when it actually becomes a reality and every meteorologist�*s worst fear is when the worst case happens and that's what we have here. this very well may be the longest tracking tornado in united states history. 0n the ground for over 200 miles and we arejust looking at a small piece of those 200 miles. goodness. and people's houses, livelihoods, businesses, in many, many cases, they've just gone? two weeks before christmas, yeah. i mean, the amazing thing is we have not had as many deaths or casualties as... if you just looked at this, i mean, the fact that people survived some of these houses that we are going by is remarkable and there's christmas, it's two weeks till christmas, there's christmas decorations that are miles from here, the debris that was lofted from this tornado was up at about 35,000 feet, so when you hop on a commercial airliner, that's about the altitude that you're cruising out, maybe a little bit higher if you're going across the atlantic, and the debris from this tornado was actually dropped miles and miles from the actual tornado. i mean, i don't even know how to describe it other than showing this to you and for anybody who's never lived in an area of the world that gets tornadoes, this is the result. it's utter devastation. noah, it looks like a war zone. i mean, will some of the people in this town have got out? will they have tried to flee before the storm hit? so at our television station, we gave everybody advance notice that if they did not have a tornado shelter or... head north, and a lot of people, we have already spoken to some, did get out and were out of town as soon as we give them that warning and they got it, drove in their car and left. so, yes, a lot of people did leave town and thankfully were not here for it, but unfortunately, some of the people that were here were in that factory and many of them did not make it, but, i mean, it honestly looks like a bomb went off. i don't know any other way to describe it. and i don't either, i mean, that is absolutely how it looks to our viewers who are seeing this right now on the bbc, this is the absolute heart of the storm there in kentucky and some people who had the ways and means to get out before the storm hit were the lucky ones. i guess if you don't own a car, you can't get out. it doesn't bear thinking about. that is correct. let me show you some more, we just got out. so yesterday, it was almost 80 degrees and it was humid and we're wearing a jacket and a winter hat now because it's in the 20s and 30s. the contrast, i mean, i don't know how this looks to you guys via a cell connection and around the world, but this is flat. if you looked at this on google earth, there would be a house there, a business there, a bank there and it's just licked clean. there's nothing left. i mean, there's brick buildings, there is pieces of bricks, but if you were in a mobile home or a poorly manufactured house, you were not surviving this. that is one thing i can tell you. noah berghan, a local meteorologist they are speaking to me from mayfield kentucky and to remind you, the governor of kentucky in the last hour and a half or so at that news update for journalists said hour and a half or so at that news update forjournalists said at least 70 people have died there and he said he fears the death toll will rise. there is search and rescue under way, rise. there is search and rescue underway, but rise. there is search and rescue under way, but some of the emergency workers who spoke at that news conference as well make the point that some of the roads were still impassable, trees were down, they were blocked, there was a lot more investigation still to do, but search and rescue under way. we will keep you up—to—date on all of that throughout the evening here on bbc news. the treasury has admitted that they had impromptu drink but denied it was a party. a spokesperson described what happened as impromptu drinks around their desks, adding there was no in—person departmental party last christmas. the foreign secretary liz truss has warned russia it will face "severe economic consequences" if it invades ukraine. she was speaking in liverpool where foreign ministers from the g7 are meeting to discuss rising tensions with russia, as well as iran's nuclear ambitions and china. 0ur diplomatic correspondent, james landale is at the g7 meeting in liverpool and he explained why there are concerns about russia's actions. they estimate there is about 100,000 russian troops on the border of the ukraine. russia says that is merely defensive manoeuvres. the west fears that actually the potential, at least, of an invasion, so they are doing everything they possibly can to deter led invasion. i spoke a few moments ago twojewels to deter led invasion. i spoke a few moments ago two jewels of morale, the eu foreign policy chief and he told me we are in deter mode. they are doing that by threatening what they call severe economic consequences if russia were to invade, but they have not been specific about that at the moment and one of the issues that is being debated here in liverpool is what should those severe economic conditions be? one example is the issue of this big new pipeline which issue of this big new pipeline which is being laid between russia and germany to provide a huge amount of gas. if that were to be shut down, that would certainly hit russia hard, but it would also hit euro's economy, too, so those are the kinds of trade—offs that the g7 foreign ministers are trying to grapple with today so they can get the issue right of deterring russia but also be incredible at the same time. james langdale at the g7 meeting in the report there. now the weather prospects in a couple of moments, but before that, let's talk about robotic surgery which you might�*ve heard of where procedures are carried out remotely and the technology is improving all the time. now guy's and st thomas hospital in london has a new robotic device for operations which aims to up device for operations which aims to up recovery times and help patients spend less time in hospital. 0ur correspondent frankie macaulay explains. i got most of my family's hit picture here and this is my dad. diagnosed with prostate cancer earlier this year. i diagnosed with prostate cancer earlier this year.— diagnosed with prostate cancer earlier this year. i wanted to get rid of it and _ earlier this year. i wanted to get rid of it and that _ earlier this year. i wanted to get rid of it and that is _ earlier this year. i wanted to get rid of it and that is the _ earlier this year. i wanted to get rid of it and that is the basis i earlier this year. i wanted to get rid of it and that is the basis of l rid of it and that is the basis of how the operation came to be. he was asked if he wanted _ how the operation came to be. he was asked if he wanted to _ how the operation came to be. he was asked if he wanted to be _ how the operation came to be. he was asked if he wanted to be the _ how the operation came to be. he was asked if he wanted to be the first i asked if he wanted to be the first person in the uk to have his prostate gland removed by a new robotic system. it’s prostate gland removed by a new robotic system.— prostate gland removed by a new robotic system. it's nice to be part of something _ robotic system. it's nice to be part of something new _ robotic system. it's nice to be part of something new within _ robotic system. it's nice to be part of something new within the i robotic system. it's nice to be part i of something new within the medical field, that in future may contribute a lot of effectiveness, a lot of service to the community and therefore, i had no doubt about it. using 3d hd cameras and remote arms a few metres away from the patient, surgeons at guy's and st thomas's —controlled robotic arms in order to carry out complicated operations. this hospital has the largest robotic surgery programme in the country with six robots carrying out operations on all different parts of the body from lungs to tonsils. surgeons here are pioneering new techniques that could soon be used across the uk. in techniques that could soon be used across the uk-_ across the uk. in five or ten years time, across the uk. in five or ten years time. most _ across the uk. in five or ten years time, most keyhole _ across the uk. in five or ten years time, most keyhole surgery i across the uk. in five or ten years time, most keyhole surgery in i across the uk. in five or ten years| time, most keyhole surgery in this country— time, most keyhole surgery in this country is — time, most keyhole surgery in this country is going to be done with robotic— country is going to be done with robotic assistants and it has been a slow growth over the past ten years or so, _ slow growth over the past ten years or so, but— slow growth over the past ten years or so, but we are now at the stage where _ or so, but we are now at the stage where some — or so, but we are now at the stage where some of these robots are so adaptable, — where some of these robots are so adaptable, they can help with so many— adaptable, they can help with so many different types of operations. how have _ many different types of operations. how have the patience of our responded?— how have the patience of our responded? how have the patience of our resonded? , ., , responded? the patients have been fantastic. they _ responded? the patients have been fantastic. they have _ responded? the patients have been fantastic. they have been _ responded? the patients have been fantastic. they have been very i fantastic. they have been very positive — fantastic. they have been very positive and thankfully the results so far— positive and thankfully the results so far have been good. in positive and thankfully the results so far have been good.— so far have been good. in nasser cosmic case, _ so far have been good. in nasser cosmic case, his _ so far have been good. in nasser cosmic case, his results - so far have been good. in nasser cosmic case, his results were i cosmic case, his results were everything he and his family hoped for. he is now cancerfree and making every day count. let's look at the weather, as promised, with susan. hello, lots of cloud spilling across the uk currently, bearing rain for many into this evening, but as we feed through these weather fronts, we are also picking up a south—westerly wind and that is going to bring in some unseasonably mild air, so a very mild evening actually especially to the south of the uk with temperatures staying in double figures, but there will be rain around into the small hours of sunday across england and wales. clear skies for scotland and northern ireland, a little cooler here but any frost very limited, some showers to the far north—west and here is that milder air through sunday continuing to pull even further north across the uk, a bit like pulling a warm blanket up. we will start the day with some rain across the north midlands, north wales, and then this whole weather front will pivot northwards to the day, so looking wetter for northern england, northern ireland for a time to the middle of the day and then the rain in southern scotland for the rain in southern scotland for the afternoon but the milder air sits to the south of that weather front and sunspots could even reach up front and sunspots could even reach up to 15 degrees.

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