will face severe consequences if it invades ukraine — a g7 meeting of foreign ministers is discussing rising tensions. it would be extremely serious if russia were to take that action. it would be a strategic mistake and there would be severe consequences. and — it's going to be a nail biter. max verstappen beats lewis hamilton to pole position for tomorrow's formula one title decider in abu dhabi — with the two men level on points. good afternoon. a group of scientists has this afternoon suggested that the uk is facing a substantial wave of omicron infections in january unless further restrictions are introduced. the number of deaths from the variant by the end of april could range from 25,000 to 75,000 depending on how well vaccines perform, according to the researchers from the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine — though the sudy has not yet been peer reviewed. the omicron variant is believed to be spreading quickly — though scientists say there is huge uncertainty about how many people may need hospital care as a result, and how much pressure will be put on the nhs. here's our health correspondent katharine da costa. the race is on to get even more jabs into arms, to boost our defences against what may be the biggest wave of covid infections we've seen so far. new analysis shows having a two vaccine doses is unlikely to stop omicron infection however booster jabs will give around 75% protection against a mild infection. both two and three doses should give significant protection against severe disease but to what extent is still unclear. we know that the booster doses do give very effective protection, we don't know how long it's going to last. it may not be very long lasting, but those booster doses are going to be critical but we can'tjust rely on the vaccine campaign to control this. we have to also wear masks and do all of those other things we've learned to do. so far, london is seeing a higher concentration of confirmed omicron cases, but it's spreading fast across much of the uk. greater use of masks, testing and the advice to work from home has been stepped up to try to slow the spread. in scotland, close contacts of positive cases now need to isolate for ten days regardless of whether they have been vaccinated. even if this variant produces slightly milder diseases, there is an open question that, what politicians are worried about is the strain on the health service. i think what they will be discussing this weekend and cabinet meets on tuesday is have we gone far enough or do more, particularly over the next few weeks, to restrict people mixing so the health service doesn't become overwhelmed and that's the main concern. early modelling suggests the omicron variant has the potential to cause a bigger wave of infections than last winter but there is uncertainty overjust how many people may end up in hospital in the new year. a lot depends on how much indoor mixing takes place or how well boosters prevent people falling seriously ill. researchers say to protect the nhs this winter further restrictions may be needed. katharine da costa, bbc news. new guidance has been issued for care home visits in england — as a result of the surge in omicron infections. from wednesday, residents will be limited to three visitors — as well as a friend or relative nominated as their essential care giver. megan paterson reports. in care homes around the country, festive celebrations are well under way. but as well as the usual trimmings, for some families, fears about covid guidelines on separation from loved ones are making an unwelcome return. i run a family of seven and it is a limit of three, so i run a family of seven and a limit three, so i'm very worried about how this is going to impact on them. the department of health say people living in care homes in england will only be allowed to receive visits from three people plus one essential care worker. staff will have to take three lateral flow tests and one pcr test every week. and there will be a £300,000,000 fund to recruit and retain care workers. further clarity is expected on the guidance next week but for now it's up to care home staff to plan how they will implement the measures and to reassure the people they will affect. it will be disappointing for relatives, it will be extremely disappointing for the residents, but it's the world that we live in. we can't risk getting this virus back into our care services. the vaccination programme remains key to controlling the spread of omicron. extra resources will be sent to poster protection but in care homes like this one in norwich, another change to visiting rules hasn't brought much cheer. i wouldn't like that. i'd have to put up with it. once again, the delicate balance between offering covid protection but maintaining vital family contact comes into focus. the government insistent these guidelines will help manage growing risk. i am very worried about how this is going to impact on mum. earlier, i spoke to adam finn — a member of thejoint committee on vaccination and immunisation and dr nick davies — assistant professor of mathematical modelling, at the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine. he worked on the modelling and i began by asking him to explain what he'd found. we have been using our models to help interpret, understand and project forward possible dynamics throughout the pandemic and we have just updated our model to include the spread of the new variant in england and, based on the data we are getting in from england and from around the world, we are projecting that this new spread is likely to lead to a substantial wave of infections in the new year, specifically injanuary. and potentially another wave of admissions, hospital admissions and deaths associated with that. and that wave in january that you are talking about, just to be really clear, is that based on restrictions, whatever you want to call them, remaining as they are now? so work from home if you can, lots and lots of places where you must wear a mask, all those sorts of factors. yes, we took account of that in the modelling so our baseline assumptions are that plan b will remain in effect into the new year and a few months into the new year and even with those restrictions in place were still protecting pretty substantial wave of infections. all of that said, there will be people watching jose, new variant suggests the impact on the individual is not causing very, very serious illness therefore why should i be quite so worried by your numbers. what would your response to that be? one of the reasons we suspect the variant may not be causing as many cases of severe illness in people that it does in fact is that the people it is infecting other people who have been previously infected or have vaccine protection so they are essentially getting reinfection of sorts and we know that that leads to lesser disease severity. our model accounts for that and still predicting a substantial wave of admissions and unfortunately of deaths. you are nodding to that last point, all of this, to you, i assume, still says this tells us more about the importance of a third dose? yes, absolutely so. the next model is concordant with two other models we have seen that the project very large wave of infection. and you would have to be very big optimist imagine this would not lead to serious problems so that does indeed reinforce the importance of getting booster doses into people but also actually, as nick's comments implied, people not yet immunised with the first two doses it is now critically important that they come forward and get the _ protection that those doses will give in order to reduce the risk of them getting seriously ill. what about people who hear you say that and think, well, i am confused because now i am hearing that if i have had particular vaccines i don't have perhaps the protection against omicron that i might like. i am thinking obviously of astrazeneca. if you boost with one of the vaccines like pfizer you do get a very substantial further rise in your protective antibodies and we predict that that will provide significant protection against this new variant so those are the vaccines we've got at the moment and those of the tools we have to use and in the meantime we all do need to do everything we can do to slow down this doubling time to give the booster programme times take effect. your thoughts about whether, specifically, the new variant will be helped by people continuing to get the doses of vaccine they are eligible for. this is notjust based on our modelling. we have early evidence of vaccine efficacy in the uk against omicron cases and it does show that booster doses do provide a really substantial benefit, particularly a very substantial benefit against infection with the omicron variant. we don't know yet about the impacts on hospitalisations and deaths but there is every reason to believe that they would provide a real boost in terms of preventing those outcomes. i would like to ask both of you, if i may, whether you would, given the modelling, the work that you are all doing, would you like to see greater restrictions on what we have just outlined? the mask wearing and so on that we're focusing on right now? it is not for me to say — i'm here to provide evidence as to the epidemiology and it is up for decision makers to make those calls. we do know that very stringent restrictions come with their own downsides. they can be devastating for individuals and their families and for businesses, i think policymakers have some very difficult decisions to make and what i'd really like to see is, for example, programme perhaps of enhanced mass testing which might help control the spread of the crown without necessarily requiring the stringent control measures that we have seen previously. when you say mass testing, are you talking about all the vies doing a lot more lateral flows or are you talking about everyone getting pcr is as well? there is a rule for pcr allowing us to keep tabs because lateral flows cannot distinguish between different variants of the coronavirus that i really think this would be a role for a lateralflow devices to be used much more frequently than we are using them now. i would like to know your thoughts on that committee. i very much concur with a very balanced comments. like him, not for me to decide what restriction should be in place but i can say that what we have learned through this pandemic is that if you act fast and early— then you can have a much bigger impact further down the lines are broadbrush advice here would be don't hold back, don't wait for certainty, act sooner. and i strongly agree with nick's comments about lateral flow test. they are enormously useful tests to pick up infectiousness in people who are asymptomatic and gives you an immediate and reliable results and people should be very much encouraged to use them before they expose themselves to other people. that is the team doing the modelling we were talking about today. officials in the us say more than 50 people are likely to have been killed, after a series of tornados hit kentucky, and other nearby states. the governor of kentucky said the tornadoes were the most severe in the area's history — and declared a state of emergency. james reynolds reports. this amazon warehouse in edwardsville in the state of illinois was ripped apart by the storm. up to 100 people may have been inside the building. they were working on the night shift in the run up to christmas. their family members have gathered. he was on the phone with me while it was happening. the tornado was hitting the back of the building. the trucks was coming in. i told him tojump out the truck and duck. i decided to come down here to see what was going on. i had no idea the building looked that bad and i'm worried sick. ijust want to know if he's 0k. in kentucky, tornadoes tore a path through 200 miles, hitting this, the town of mayfield. the governor fears dozens may have been killed at a candle factory. it has been one of the toughest- nights in kentucky history and some areas have been hit in ways that are hard to put into words. - in arkansas, the storm hit a nursing home, killing at least one person and trapping more than a dozen others. one official called it heartbreaking. james reynolds, bbc news. we are trying to get through to mayfield but there are technical challenges because we know what has been happening there. it is worth just telling you the latest coming through from the president because joe biden isjust put out through from the president because joe biden is just put out a statement there on twitter in the last few minutes saying that he has been briefed on those devastating tornadoes. to lose a loved one a storm like this is an unimaginable tragedy. we are working with governors, state governors, of course, to make sure that they have what they need is the search for the survivors continues and is damage assessment continues. so many states, very badly hit but none more so than kentucky. joining me now is meteorologist noah bergren, whojoins me from mayfield in kentucky. so good of you to talk to us. what can you see, goodness. your dash cam tells its own story. that can you see, goodness. your dash cam tells its own story.— tells its own story. that is the best explanation _ tells its own story. that is the best explanation of— tells its own story. that is the best explanation of this - tells its own story. that is the best explanation of this i - tells its own story. that is the best explanation of this i can l tells its own story. that is the - best explanation of this i can give you. i have been covering and following where therefore my entire professional career and i speak for every meteorologist in both the united states and around the world whether it is a hurricane or a corneille dough or a blizzard, it is one thing when we know the potential of the atmosphere. it is another thing when it actually becomes a reality and every meteorologist�*s worst fear is when worst case happens. and that is what we have here. this very male may be the longest tracking tornado in the united states history. on the ground for over 200 miles and just looking at a small piece of those 200 miles. my at a small piece of those 200 miles. my goodness. and houses, livelihoods, businesses. in many, many cases, they have just gone. tiara many cases, they have 'ust gone. two weeks before _ many cases, they have just gone. twr weeks before christmas. yes. the amazing thing is we have not had as many deaths or casualties as, if you just looked at this. i mean, the fact that people survive some of these houses that we are going by is remarkable. and there is christmas. it is two weeks to christmas. there are christmas decorations that are miles from here, they'd be lifted from this tornado was at that about 35,000 feet so when you hop on a commercial airliner that is about the altitude that you are cruising at. maybe a little higher if you are going across the atlantic and the degree from this tornado was actually dropped miles and miles from the actual tornado. i mean, don't even know how to describe it other than shiner steve and for anybody who has never lived in an area of the world that gets tornadoes, this is the result, it is utter devastation. it tornadoes, this is the result, it is utter devastation.— utter devastation. it looks like a war zone- _ utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will _ utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will some _ utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will some of - utter devastation. it looks like a war zone. will some of the - utter devastation. it looks like a l war zone. will some of the people utter devastation. it looks like a - war zone. will some of the people in this town has got out? will they have tried to flee before the storm hit? ,, ., have tried to flee before the storm hit? ., ., , ., , ., ., hit? so, at our television station we ave hit? so, at our television station we gave everyone _ hit? so, at our television station we gave everyone advance - hit? so, at our television station | we gave everyone advance notice hit? so, at our television station - we gave everyone advance notice that if they did not have a tornado shelter all dot—mac out and head north. a lot of people and we have already spoken to some, were out of town as soon as we gave them that warning and they got it, driven the car and left. so, yes, a lot of people did leave town and thankfully were not here for it but unfortunately some of the ones that were here were in that factory and many of them did not make it bad it honestly looks like a bomb. i don't know what other way to describe it. and i don't either. that is absolutely how it links to our viewers who are seeing this right now on the bbc. this is the absolute heart of the storm there in kentucky. people who had the ways and means to get out before the storm hit where the lucky ones. i guess, if you don't own a car, you can't get out, it doesn't bear thinking about. let can't get out, it doesn't bear thinking about.— can't get out, it doesn't bear thinking about. can't get out, it doesn't bear thinkin: about. , ., , ., thinking about. let me show you some more. we thinking about. let me show you some more- we just — thinking about. let me show you some more- we just got _ thinking about. let me show you some more. we just got out. _ thinking about. let me show you some more. we just got out. yesterday - thinking about. let me show you some more. we just got out. yesterday it. more. we just got out. yesterday it was almost 80 degrees and it was human. and we are wearing, because it is in the 20s and 30s. the contrast, i don't know how this looks to your viewers based on cell connection around the world but this is flat. if you look on google earth there'll be a business there, pub there, bank there. and it isjust linked to clean. there is nothing left. mean, there is brick buildings, there is pieces of bricks, but if you are in a mobile home or a poorly manufactured house, you are not surviving this. there has one thing i can tell you. ijust do not know how to describe it other than showing it to you right now. me and everyone else is at a loss for words. we'll be here throughout the day helping, trying to help people, we have a governor of the state is coming. they have requested a federal disaster declaration from the federal government and we will see that comes. the federal disaster proclamation. the national guard is here. the national guard is going to be helping people out, which is a great thing. i don't know if you can hear me. there might be a little wind. but i feel like this is ground zero. i mean, you can see on the ground, this is brick that was flying at hundreds of miles an hour. i mean, you can imagine if that hit you on the head or came through your window, you would be dead on impact. keep showing us the scenes. it is absolutely heartbreaking and extraordinary what you are showing us. have you seen many people? have you spoken to many individuals who have survived this and are looking for somewhere to live right now? there is a shelter been set up. we have not spoken to many yet because we just got here. but the son just came about 90 minutes ago so everybody now she is starting to come into town left and i want to remind you, too, this is not the only town that has been devastated. there are two towns from arkansas to to missouri and tennessee that looks just like this. so it is dozens of towns and probably in the hundreds of millions of dollars or more. and you canjust seal the of millions of dollars or more. and you can just seal the projectiles put up christmas decorations, highway sign, there are nails everywhere. this was a bank. that is what is left of the fire department. they used to be two—storey to the building and now there is one. this is why we tell people, do not go next to windows in tornadoes because flying projectiles through a window are going to puncture your head or do worse damage to you. it's going to be a long recovery. for those of us in the midsouth. some meteorological context for you, this will be the longest tracking tornado in united states history and possibly one of the strongest. i don't know when speed yet but the national weather service will confirm that damage but we are looking at probably in the higher ioos looking at probably in the higher 100s to the looking at probably in the higher 1005 to the 200 looking at probably in the higher 100s to the 200 mile an hour range. we're so grateful. our viewers be clearer now at the sheer devastation there in mayfield kentucky. thank you so much. take care and perhaps we can speak to you again when you've been able to able to speak to some of those people who managed to survive. thank you, very, much indeed for allowing those images onto the bbc here. and meteorologist. at the heart of that in mayfield kentucky and absolutely extraordinary. as he said, there are streets that looks like a war zone and when you saw the fire station there and the entire story, one whole story of that fire station ripped off by that tornado overnight. just to remind you the mayor of kentucky saying at least 50 people believed to have died but he was concerned that that number would rise and now when you see those images, you can't think that that won't indeed be the case we will keep you updated. bring you more from kentucky and four other states that were affected by those absolutely devastating storms overnight when people were asleep in their beds in many cases. we will bring you more from the state to come. the time right now is 25 past three. we must turn our attentions to sport because it is a very, very busy weekend. let's catch up with all the latest details. max verstappen has taken a step closer to winning the formula one title after beating rival lewis hamilton to pole position at tomorrow's formula one season finale in abu dhabi. the pair as level on points heading into title—decider. as the sun goes down in abu dhabi the pressure goes up. he felt at first in the crucial second session of qualifying. a flat spot make triers and driveable and it forced verstappen to change tactics. he will start in the vat about this durable soft tyre. it is the finest shoot—out for pole that matters, though. and on a weekend that has been headlined by individuals, it was a team—mate who got verstappen through. peres provided a slipstream to help the flying dutchman go faster and it worked. mercedes did not copy their tactic and hamilton couldn't catch him. in the last six years, the pole sitter has gone on to win. in this title fight, verstappen has landed a heavy first blow leaving hamilton on the ropes. the question is, can he recover? england have been crushed in the opening ashes test losing by nine wickets on day four. they had to continue the momentum and there were glimmers of hope. the captain added just three to his overnight score. his dismissalfor 89 was just three to his overnight score. his dismissal for 89 was pivotal putting australia in total control. england lost their last eight wickets with 77 runs. that left australia needing a mare 2i wickets with 77 runs. that left australia needing a mare 21 is to win. the next up is adelaide on thursday. win. the next up is adelaide on thursday-— win. the next up is adelaide on thursda. , ., _ ~ ., thursday. obviously we knew how im ortant thursday. obviously we knew how important that _ thursday. obviously we knew how important that first _ thursday. obviously we knew how important that first hour - thursday. obviously we knew how important that first hour was - thursday. obviously we knew how important that first hour was in i important that first hour was in particular. turnovers and then managing that. we knew it was going to nip around a bit again and there would be an extra bit of bounce and sit with it being a little bit harder so it was really important that we got there unscathed and unfortunately losing those three wickets ahead of that was bitterly disappointing because we put a lot of good work in last night and built up of good work in last night and built up a big partnership and it was really on me to make the most of that opportunity this morning. manchester city extended their lead at the top following their win over wolves in the early kick—off. four points of the time being with other games currently under way one goal and plenty to talk about. after going top of the premier league last week it is full steam ahead for manchester city. nobody their way. a win against wolves would be a six leak victory in a row. just before the break, though, the game sparked into life in a crazy 48 seconds. first booked for this and then he did this. two yellow cards in less than a minute. wolves down to ten. so manchester city second half onslaught. the last line of defence here but it was only delaying the inevitable. other the breakthrough was controversial with the ar doing this to be handball. 100 premier league goals for this player. he was nearly made to pay, too. close to snatching a stoppage time equaliser for city held on and continued to lead from the front in this thrilling premier league title race. plenty more to come. three more games are under way. liverpool against liverpool at the moment. it is currently goalless at anfield at the moment. arsenal are two goals up against southampton. it is looking good at the emirates and chelsea are one goal down against leeds. a penalty for them. norwich city host manchester united in the late kick—off. a shock defeat for last week's fa cup winners chelsea. they lost 1—0 away. chelsea could have gone top of the league for the first time this season but the royals went ahead afterjust time this season but the royals went ahead after just four time this season but the royals went ahead afterjust four minutes. they scored from their only shot on target. the defeat leaves chelsea one point adrift of the leaders, arsenal. redding move up to fifth. cardiff lost in the first weekend of the european champion defence. cardiff were first to cross the line that spent the rest of the first have trying to stay ahead. tries from these players. the champions scored three more with a superb kick from the world player of the year. a simple task for the bonus point winning fourth try. and that is all the spot from us for now. we are going to stay