from what we do know there's a significant number of mutations, perhaps double the number of mutations that we have seen in the delta variant. and that would suggest that it may well be more transmissible and the current vaccines that we have may well be less effective. so are we heading for a return to tough travel restrictions? paul charles is ceo of the travel consultancy the pc agency. 20 months into the crisis, this must feel like deja vu for the industry — do travellers have more flexibilty and financial protection this time round? i think they do, there is no doubt travel firms have become much better at offering refunds or alternatives in terms of switching flights but this feels like we are going backwards at a time when things were improving. airlines were back to 60 or 70% of what they were flying pre—pandemic, tour operators and travel agents were seeing bookings return to around 80% of what they saw before the pandemic and hotels were starting to fill a room is again so it feels like we are moving back to the early pandemic period where governments were not hesitating to put restrictions in and there are alternatives. let's talk about _ there are alternatives. let's talk about the _ there are alternatives. let's talk about the specific - talk about the specific instance. what happens to immediate arrivals from southern africa and those with holidays booked? there are some luckier ones who will be arriving into the uk on british airways and virgin flights from south africa early this morning, though pretty well everyone else who wants to leave south africa will face many issues getting home and there are a lot of people in south africa who took advantage of getting out on cheaper flights when the red list was removed and south africa was opened up a few weeks ago but getting home will be difficult and they are likely to have to go into hotel quarantine especially if they arrive after saturday morning in scotland on sunday in england. it's difficult to get a flight nonstop because flights are banned as of midday today so ba and virgin will not be flying and virgin will not be flying and going via another country will meet you have to go into hotel quarantine if you arrive this weekend were home quarantine if you arrive later today so it will be difficult for those who are stuck to get home on the few flights are available. do home on the few flights are available-— home on the few flights are available. , ., ~ ., available. do you think more countries — available. do you think more countries will _ available. do you think more countries will join _ available. do you think more countries will join the - available. do you think more countries will join the red . countries willjoin the red list? i countries will 'oin the red list? ~' ., ., list? i think we need to hear what the _ list? i think we need to hear what the experts _ list? i think we need to hear what the experts say - list? i think we need to hear what the experts say later . what the experts say later today when the world health organization meet but we have been here before with the new paul variant that turned out to be a false alarm, with the variant that affected mink that turned out to be a false alarm —— the new paul variant. many people will be hoping this is also a false alarm and there is no evidence of this new variant emerging in the uk and what concerns the travel sector is the government put in place restrictions which led to a fall in share prices as investors worry but they have put them in place without thinking of the alternative which is about individual risk, notjust putting in measures which create this blanket concrete measure and stop flights from a swathe of countries, they should be looking at individual travellers and saying if you are fullyjabbed, you can avoid hotel quarantine and take a series of tests but instead we have measures affecting anyone whether they have been jabbed or not and that his sending fear across that stock markets. financial markets have been rattled by this news — shares of airlines and travel companies in particular have been hit. let's speak to nick marsh in singapore. we have two cases already of this new variant in hong kong. how is the asian financial world being affected and responding to this variant? stock markets are down the lowest they have been for almost two months, a lot of market movement in asia. in japan, the nikki was down 3% earlier, those two cases in hong kong called the hang seng index to be down 3.5%, a lot of market movement. as we heard their travel is the big one, their travel is the big one, the uk has put in that travel ban and we are still waiting to hear what governments in this part of the world will do. judging by how cautious they have been over the past two years it wouldn't be a surprise if new travel bans came in. we have already seen the share price of qantas in a straight down 5%, air asia is down 5%. countries around asia are only just starting to open up to quarantine free travel so a real headache for the industry. in terms of where people are starting to put their money, they are going to havens like they are going to havens like the japanese yen and us treasuries and gold so the impulse is to dump those riskier investments, wait and see what happens over the weekend and not take too many chances right now. hick weekend and not take too many chances right now.— chances right now. nick marsh, thank yom _ time for some retail therapy now — because as you have probably noticed, today is black friday. analysts say it could be the biggest yet with sales here in the uk set to double on last year when the country was in lockdown. almost two thirds of uk adults will make a purchase today — spending an average of £280 — according to one estimate by pwc. but shoppers are being warned to expect less generous discounts and some shortages because of the supply chain crisis. one uk toy business has been speaking to the bbc about the pressures this year. black friday is always a challenge for retailers but this year in particular has been difficult because of the global supply chain issues. we've had to buy stock in much earlier than we normally would do because lead times have increased from 90 days up to sometimes 180 days. ordering stock early puts pressure on every part of the business in terms of cash flow. normally you would buy in stock and you would expect to receive that money in 20, 30 days. this year you are paying for stock and to get that cash back in you're having to wait 90 days, 120 days. we have had to be quite selective on the products we have got. on top of that we have had increased freight costs, that has pushed prices up six or seven fold, so for example last year to move containers across from asia into the uk it would cost around £2500. this year at times we have seen costs coming in at about £17,000 to £18,000 so that has put a lot of pressure on us. i think with all the factors at play this year it's harder to give those big headline discounts. it's more important to just give a broader discount across a wider range of products. kate hardcastle is a retail analyst — she's in leeds in the north of england. an investigation by which showed more than 90% of black friday deals were the same price or cheaper in the six months before the event last year. is it a big con? it’s months before the event last year. is it a big con?- year. is it a big con? it's not so much _ year. is it a big con? it's not so much icon _ year. is it a big con? it's not so much icon at _ year. is it a big con? it's not so much icon at the - year. is it a big con? it's not so much icon at the fact - year. is it a big con? it's notj so much icon at the fact that no retailer goes out to say this is the best set of deals, this is the best set of deals, this is the best set of deals, this is something retailers feel in a catch—22, they need to be in there competing because this is a big buying time in the uk, we adopted black friday about ten years ago and if they are in it there is a chance they will win the sale, if they are not there is a chance the consumer might buy elsewhere so while it is not very profitable period, retailers want to try to ca ptu re retailers want to try to capture the being spent. if people want to buy today, will there be enough stock available? i there be enough stock available?— there be enough stock available? . , ., , available? i have been out this week and _ available? i have been out this week and one _ available? i have been out this week and one thing _ available? i have been out this week and one thing you - available? i have been out this week and one thing you can i available? i have been out this| week and one thing you can see in a lot of stores like toy retailers is a lot of repeats so the shelves have a lot of poured on them but there seems to be a lot of the same product. i think the consumers are wise, we have these mechanics like shopping tools or they can compare prices and it was fascinating to see that happen in stores, especially questioning that challenge for bricks and mortar stores where they become a showroom in the consumer checks the best deal they can get, put them down and walks away if they don't feel they have it so we have to change the mechanics where we see retailers being able to use it as customer acquisition, building a relationship longer term and consumers feeling we are getting more authentic and real deals. is this click—click—buy or a in—store experience as an event? last year was nearly all online because the uk was in lockdown at this time and stores were closed so they did turn online for purchases. there are figures to suggest they are back on the high street, i saw shoppers about this week going out and checking products but i don't think we will get the huge setback we saw in the early days of black friday with crowds trying to grab tvs and be quite good items, wrestling over the best prices, i think is the fact that mall retail is all channels and those deals will be there are cross them all. we have retailers who were not involved, big bellwethers like ikea but it's interesting that consumers will generally be mindful about how they want to get involved with this. about 25% of people still love to hunt for our bargain, 25% are not fast and about half of us are waiting for the best deal to drop in our inbox. dealto drop in our inbox. £280 each spent _ dealto drop in our inbox. £280 each spent today, _ dealto drop in our inbox. £280 each spent today, that - dealto drop in our inbox. £280 each spent today, that seems i each spent today, that seems like a huge amount of money to me and you think that is realistic and also who is spending that money? is it the baby boomers or generation x? it's a complete mix of people spending in this period, you might as well call it black november because officers were coming into the inbox are in the 1st of november and stores were reflecting that. we have consumers who will overspend but we know this is a time of year, it used to be called the golden quarter, september to december, were retail benefits from the sales period prior to christmas so some consumers use it to get better deals and some will be switched on to that a toothbrush or something they feel they cannot live without and that is where we have to hope the warnings out there, solid advice is if you cannot afford it it is never a bargain so go within budget but if you can afford it, why not enjoy the fun? some retailers will be dependent on a boost to their income after a challenging 18 months. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: soaring fertiliser prices be sowing the seeds of a fuel crisis? this is bbc world news. the latest headlines: the uk bans travellers from six african countries, over concerns about a rapidly—spreading new coronavirus variant. borisjohnson calls on france to "take back" all migrants who cross to the uk before there are any further deaths. let's return to that theme of rising prices. we were talking about energy prices and now we are talking about inflation. in october, the us recorded the fastest inflation rate in 30 years. and injapan, it was the fastest rate in a0 years. central bank chiefs have been insisting it's down to short—term factors related to the pandemic. aaron heslehurst has been speaking to the former governor of the reserve bank of india, raghuram rajan, and he asked how long inflation will keep rising? i'm saying transitory could be quite long, given the state of supply chains across the world, but once it's long enough, it becomes more permanent because people expect higher inflation. given that they expect higher inflation they ask for a higher wages, sean's wage bill goes up and he has to pass it on to higher prices and that becomes a spiral which become self—sustaining regardless of the initial cost which was a supply chain snafus and high demand. so what is that time period? that is the trillion dollar question. i think it's basically when people get used to higher inflation. they have spent ten years without worrying about inflation after the global financial crisis, it's been very low but over the past few months they have seen everything go up including your starbucks coffee. president biden and his administration say the current price rises are all down to the pandemic. do you agree with that? yes, certainly it's how we are reacting to the pandemic that is exacerbating these issues but unfortunately the way to deal with this over some time is really to slow down activity, that is what the fed does by raising interest rates but you have just spent 5—6 million in the us producing the best recovery money can buy and nobody will be happy if the fed slows down the economy. and viewers on bbc world news can watch talking business with aaron heslehurst this weekend. the times are on your screen now with the first airing at 2330 gmt on saturday. could soaring energy prices tip the world into a food crisis? that's the warning from a norwegian company which is one of the world's top fertiliser makers. yara international says the cost of producing ammonia — a key ingredient in fertilizer — has soared ninefold. last summer it cost $110 to produce a tonne of ammonia. now it's more like $1000. the chief executive of yara international, svein tore holsether, joins me now. thank you forjoining me on the programme. can you just explain to our audience how an energy crisis, you believe, will fuel a food crisis?— a food crisis? food is also ener: a food crisis? food is also energy and _ a food crisis? food is also energy and when - a food crisis? food is also energy and when energy i a food crisis? food is also - energy and when energy prices increase to the extent they are doing now, that will translate to the cost of food and if i look at the cost to produce our main component, ammonia going into nitrogen fertiliser, it has gone from being at around $160 per tonne this time last year to close to $1000 so that is translating into food systems, making fertiliser more expensive for farmers and food more expensive to produce. 50 more expensive to produce. so 5096 of more expensive to produce. so 50% of the world's food relies on commercial fertiliser. you think crop yields are likely to be lower next year? it depends on where _ be lower next year? it depends on where in _ be lower next year? it depends on where in the _ be lower next year? it depends on where in the world, - be lower next year? it depends on where in the world, for- be lower next year? it depends on where in the world, for the l on where in the world, for the most part in europe you will see the same farming practices but what scares me, the world is hit across europe with rising food prices what is worrying is what i see in the most vulnerable communities where this isn't a matter of just increased food prices but a matter of life or death and i have been in contact over the last few months with the head of the world food programme and when i hear what they are seeing on the front lines and comparing that to what agronomists see, we are approaching a food crisis in parts of the world for sure. i note you have had to cut production by a0%, your largest shareholder is that norwegian government. have you received pressure on how you distribute the fertiliser you are processing?- the fertiliser you are processing? the fertiliser you are ”rocessin ? ~ ., ., the fertiliser you are ”rocessin? ~ ., ., ., ., , processing? we have not had any olitical processing? we have not had any political pressure _ processing? we have not had any political pressure so _ processing? we have not had any political pressure so we - processing? we have not had any political pressure so we are - political pressure so we are running the business as usual but that said we have made donations and last year together with the world food programme we made a donation of 40,000 tonnes of premium fertiliser are we allocated that to smaller farmers and in africa we are able to trace that fertiliser down to each farmer and it was rewarding to see the impact of that that they were able to triple their yields in the first season, meaning they could produce additionalfood to meaning they could produce additional food to feed 1 million people for one so that says something about the power of fertiliser and the impact it can have when you combine it with agronomic advice. farmers across europe _ with agronomic advice. farmers across europe will _ with agronomic advice. farmers across europe will not - with agronomic advice. farmers across europe will not be - across europe will not be looking to buy your fertiliser until around february, given the supply chain crisis and a driver shortage, are you confident you will be able to get your product to market? the su -l get your product to market? the supply chain _ get your product to market? tue: supply chain issues get your product to market? tta: supply chain issues are get your product to market? "tt2 supply chain issues are adding to the complexity this year, many farmers are already making sure they have product available and we are working around the clock to do what we can to deliver on our promise to farmers to get their products out there but we are facing much more difficulties this time than in recent history. this time than in recent history-— this time than in recent histo . ,, ., history. svein tore holsether, it has been — history. svein tore holsether, it has been a _ history. svein tore holsether, it has been a pleasure - history. svein tore holsether, it has been a pleasure to - history. svein tore holsether, it has been a pleasure to talk| it has been a pleasure to talk to you. thank you. another 70,000 uk households have seen their energy supplier go out of business this week with the failure of entice energy and orbit energy. 24 companies have now been squeezed out of the market by soaring gas prices in less than three months, and it's affected 4 million customers. the consumer advocates, citizens advice, say it's clear the country's energy market is not functioning as it should. susannah streeter is senior investment and markets analyst at hargreaves lansdown. people wonder what to do about this and whether there is a plan to stop further dominance from falling in this market. there was a plan over the longer term but not in the short term. the problem is the energy price cap that is preventing energy suppliers passing on them higher wholesale prices to their customers and that is why you have seen two dozen firms in the uk go bust and the biggest one is bulb which went bust this week, 1.7 million customers and the government has had to set aside £1.7 billion to keep the company running because there is not another company to take on all those people. there have been criticisms of eight systemic failure in the uk industry because so many of these small firms took on risky decisions offering low prices and have not been hedged on energy. in future there is a plant to lift this cap in times of volatility of wholesale energy prices and there is likely to be a big increase in this energy price cap next april.— cap next april. what is the advice if — cap next april. what is the advice if your _ cap next april. what is the advice if your supply - cap next april. what is the advice if your supply goes | advice if your supply goes bust? ,., �* advice if your supply goes bust? �* ., ., , advice if your supply goes bust? .,._ , , bust? don't do anything because ou will bust? don't do anything because you will either _ bust? don't do anything because you will either be _ bust? don't do anything because you will either be switched - bust? don't do anything because you will either be switched to - you will either be switched to a new supplier or if you are a customer of one of the biggest like bulb, stay there, do not panic because your credit in your account will be kept even if you are transferred to a new supplier. the problem is bills are getting much more expensive and all of this is feeding through to a real income squeeze and these higher energy prices will of course be feeding through to what the bank of england's decision will be when it comes to rising interest rates next month, whether it will put those rights up because it is all adding to the pressures of inflation. adding to the pressures of inflation-— adding to the pressures of inflation. ,, ., ,, inflation. susannah streeter in bristol, inflation. susannah streeter in bristol. we — inflation. susannah streeter in bristol, we will _ inflation. susannah streeter in bristol, we will leave - inflation. susannah streeter in bristol, we will leave it - bristol, we will leave it there. a quick reminder of our top stories, african countries put on the red list because of this new covid variant. i will see you soon. hello. the first named storm of the season is approaching, and it's set to bring us some fairly disruptive weather over the next couple of days. storm arwen, as named by the met office, will be developing particularly later friday into saturday, bringing not only widespread gales, some sleet and snow mainly over the high ground in the north — and it is likely to cause a bit of disruption because of that combination of the strong the high ground in the north — and it is likely to cause a bit of disruption because of that combination of the strong winds, the cold weather, and the sleet and snow we'll see over the higher ground. so for friday morning, then, we've got the cloud and patchy rain across much of england and wales, which pushes its way southeastwards. then we're left with sunshine and blustery showers coming in from the north — and across the north of scotland, those showers will merge into longer spells of fairly heavy snow over the higher ground, some sleet and snow, too, across parts of northern ireland like the sperrin mountains. mainly rain showers further south — it will feel chilly, about 7—11 celsius — but when you add on the wind—chill, it will feel colder than that. the winds will be a real feature of the weather. we've got an amber warning in force for eastern scotland and northeast england, could see gusts between about 65—70 mph here, particularly later on friday and overnight into saturday morning. so through the overnight period, then, this area of sleet and snow and rain at low levels pushes its way southwards and eastwards, followed by more wintry showers packing in from the north. overnight temperatures for most of our towns and cities above freezing, but colder than that in the countryside. so, as this storm arwen pushes just out towards the southeast, we'll start to draw in these strong, cold northerly winds as we head through into saturday morning — gusts, infact, quite widely 30—40 mph, around the coasts, 50—60, or even a little bit higher than that. so we've got this area of rain, perhaps some sleet and snow over the highest ground, pushing eastwards across parts of eastern england on saturday. more of those wintry showers coming in across scotland, too. something a little bit drier for central and western areas, and it is turning colder — so temperatures about 4—9 celsius, but when you add on the effect of that wind—chill, it will feel subzero for many of us through the day on saturday. so, cold and windy with wintry showers, too. heading into sunday, as storm arwen starts to clear to the east, things will settle down a little bit — so not quite as windy on sunday, but still more of those wintry showers packing in across the higher ground of the north of scotland, down the east coast of england, too. and quite a bit of dry weather elsewhere — but it certainly will feel cold throughout the weekend. than the delta variant good morning welcome to breakfast with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. our headlines today: concern from the uk government as a new varient of coronavirus is disovered in south africa. it may be more transmissible

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