conservatively today. it's only three shots off. he will feel that he still very much in the mix for this title. and the first prize worth $3 million with them even when you're as successful as him that catches your eye as well for the peace put up a very good effort i think this week to be in contention and he certainly is heading into the final round. just before we go live written pool, arsenal to nearly played it and 16 — 38 in the second row. our round goes up 38 in the second row. our round goes up after at 745. our round goes up after at 745. that's all from sportsday. many people watching eastern europe at the moment are asking one question — is russia going to invade ukraine? the answer is, i don't know. i think we have to be on our guard and i think we have to make sure that deterrence prevails. the uk's most senior military officer doesn't know. putin has the west guessing. but what everyone knows is that tension is rising. the eu and russia have been blaming each other for the migrant crisis on the belarus— poland border. there's also been a major build—up of russian troops near the border with ukraine. and america is watching. we do continue to see unusual military activity and concentration of forces in russia but near ukrainian borders. and that remains concerning to us. we've also heard one ukrainian minister warning of... vladimir putin calls these fears alarmist. though russia did invade georgia in 2008 and we know more broadly, putin doesn't want to test the west. to understand how and why he's doing that well, ukraine is a place to start. it was once part of the soviet union and even after independence in 1991 remained in ally of russians. but the relationship frayed and 2014 russia annexed crimea orfrom the ukraine and made a military incursion into the east of ukraine to support separatists. for that russia was booted out of the g—8 group of rich countries and faced economic sanctions too. but it didn't back down. and now this year, this is been happening. first in the spring of thousands of russian troops were set towards the border with ukraine. now in november another build—up is happening. and ukrainian officials estimate that 11a,000 troops had been deployed. and vladimir putin will be well aware that the us continues to watch. ~ �* , ,, . watch. we've seen in the past russia mask forces — watch. we've seen in the past russia mask forces on _ watch. we've seen in the past russia mask forces on ukraine's _ watch. we've seen in the past russia mask forces on ukraine's borders, i mask forces on ukraine's borders, claim _ mask forces on ukraine's borders, claim some — mask forces on ukraine's borders, claim some kind of provocation by ukraine _ claim some kind of provocation by ukraine. and then invade and basically— ukraine. and then invade and basically following through on something they were planning all alone _ something they were planning all along. that's what they did in 2014. if that's _ along. that's what they did in 2014. if that's the — along. that's what they did in 2014. if that's the us ukraine two says it's learned lessons. he if that's the us ukraine two says it's learned lessons.— it's learned lessons. he did the same seven — it's learned lessons. he did the same seven years _ it's learned lessons. he did the same seven years ago - it's learned lessons. he did the same seven years ago in - it's learned lessons. he did the i same seven years ago in crimea. it's learned lessons. he did the - same seven years ago in crimea. they recognise that actually this nation is ultimate people. when does he think is beautiful this time? vladimir putin knew his actions would bring sanctions and condemnations but he had his reasons for the it is he one of them in this article injuly. president putin wrote... and certainly one of his motivations is a desire to maintain the alliances, influences and cultural connections that are rooted in russia's history. but for all that this is also about security. have a look at this map from the website of the defence alliance nato. there is russia in the ease in the light blue coloured countries are all nato members. ukraine well, it's not a nato member but it gets major military support from the us and others. and all of this is too close for comfort for putin. in his eyes it requires a response. keep that in mind as we consider how the us is now connecting the current rushing troop build—up in another escalating situation. he is a recent tweet from the secretary of state. he describes a high brick campaign on the poland— belarus border which seeks to so... and to understand why the americans are making that connection we need to look at belarus. this are making that connection we need to look at belarus.— to look at belarus. this story is a very human _ to look at belarus. this story is a very human drama _ to look at belarus. this story is a very human drama but _ to look at belarus. this story is a very human drama but the - to look at belarus. this story is a - very human drama but the backdrop, that's geopolitics.— that's geopolitics. that's the bbc's steve rosenberg _ that's geopolitics. that's the bbc's steve rosenberg in _ that's geopolitics. that's the bbc's steve rosenberg in belarus - that's geopolitics. that's the bbc's steve rosenberg in belarus this i steve rosenberg in belarus this week. this country was also wants part of the soviet union but unlike ukraine, belarus remains an ally of russia. president lukashenko and putin know each other well. that's relevant as we look at the crisis on the border between poland and belarus was up poland is in the european union and the eu accuses lukashenko of encouraging migrants to use belarus as a route into the eu. lukashenko denies that but thousands have come in and in desperate conditions had tried to get into poland. 0ther desperate conditions had tried to get into poland. other eu countries are affected too. lithuania and latvia have also seen a rise in illegal crossings from belarus. and for the polish prime minister this is an only about belarus and the eu, it's about russia.— is an only about belarus and the eu, it's about russia. translation: this attack with the _ it's about russia. translation: this attack with the back _ it's about russia. translation: this attack with the back which _ attack with the back which lukashenko has conducted has its mastermind in moscow. the mastermind is president— mastermind in moscow. the mastermind is president putin.— is president putin. others disagree with that saying — is president putin. others disagree with that saying this _ is president putin. others disagree with that saying this is _ is president putin. others disagree with that saying this is simply - with that saying this is simply lukashenko taking revenge for eu sanctions on belarus. and whether russia is or isn't the mastermind, it certainly involved in this crisis. vladimir putin spoken to angela merkel on the phone twice perhaps mischievously he's offering to mediate. this analyst argues this is exactly what putin wants to be. this is one possible explanation for britain's approach was a little when he is president goes further. translation: it is totally clear what the lukashenko regime and allies are sinking. to what the lukashenko regime and allies are sinking.— allies are sinking. to test the uni of allies are sinking. to test the unity of the _ allies are sinking. to test the unity of the west. _ allies are sinking. to test the unity of the west. not - allies are sinking. to test the unity of the west. not that i allies are sinking. to test the - unity of the west. not that russia is havin: unity of the west. not that russia is having battles _ unity of the west. not that russia is having battles are _ unity of the west. not that russia is having battles are won - unity of the west. not that russia is having battles are won official. is having battles are won official dismissed the west thinking as keep calm and blame russia. but russia does have a track record of testing the west. it did so in crimea, it did so in georgia, it even did so in space this week by destroying a satellite and a missile task much to nato's irritation. here in the uk the conservative mp tobias ellwood sees another test coming. everyone is watching. and this isn't just about military might because to understand prudence plan we also need to think about energy too. this is the gas pipeline. it runs from russia all the way to western europe. but it's not switched on yet, in fact germany has just delayed giving at the 0k yet, in fact germany has just delayed giving at the ok but here it is stretching under the baltic sea. and when it's on it will increase europe's reliance on russian gas. borisjohnson europe's reliance on russian gas. boris johnson that europe's reliance on russian gas. borisjohnson that is a problem. the boris johnson that is a problem. the choice is borisjohnson that is a problem. tue: choice is shortly borisjohnson that is a problem. tte: choice is shortly coming. borisjohnson that is a problem. t"te: choice is shortly coming. between mainlining ever more russian hydrocarbons in giant new pipelines or sticking up for ukraine and championing the cause of peace and stability. championing the cause of peace and stabili . . . championing the cause of peace and stabili . ., . ., , , ., ., , stability. reliance on russian gas is one security — stability. reliance on russian gas is one security concern. - stability. reliance on russian gas is one security concern. but - stability. reliance on russian gas l is one security concern. but there's another, northe is one security concern. but there's another, nor the stream to will reduce the volume of gas it's delivered by or ukraine. and ukraine believes that's dangerous. as we are hearing most issues in this part of europe have a security dimension. and if nato is unimpressed with russia's action the feeling is mutual. translation: we need to consider that western partners worsening the situation. they deliver modern, lethal weapons to kyiv _ they deliver modern, lethal weapons to kyiv and _ they deliver modern, lethal weapons to kyiv and have provocative exercises _ to kyiv and have provocative exercises in the black sea and other regions _ exercises in the black sea and other regions close to our borders. putin sees a serious _ regions close to our borders. putin sees a serious challenge _ regions close to our borders. putin sees a serious challenge in - regions close to our borders. tm “t sees a serious challenge in the west proximity. and parties seek view as defensive. at that helps us understand what is doing so does this from april.— understand what is doing so does this from aril. �* ,, �* ., , this from april. translation: i hope no one will cross _ this from april. translation: i hope no one will cross russia's _ this from april. translation: i hope no one will cross russia's red - this from april. translation: i hope no one will cross russia's red line. . no one will cross russia's red line. but in each case we are the ones who will decide whether redline is. 0rganisers of any part of our security will regret it like they have not regretted anything for a long time. have not regretted anything for a lona time. , long time. here we see the aggressive _ long time. here we see the aggressive dimension - long time. here we see the aggressive dimension to i long time. here we see the i aggressive dimension to prudence approach. he asserts that russia will set the rules and enforce them. and this all connects to the broader goal of prudence leadership, to establish russia as a global force was up to do that putin wants to test the limits of western power. what we don't know is what he wants to happen next. hello. it's not been a bad start to the weekend. quite a lot of cloud across england and wales although having said that, there were some decent gaps. particularly in the mid part of the day across the north of england and into north wales but further south it was quite a lot of cloud around. at times there was a spot of rain from this. the cloud was at its thickest, not unusually, the close to a weather front which started today across northern ireland. and has made some progress down across the british isles. behind it the showers have ganged up as this feature swung into the north of scotland. isobars are tightly packed and they are turning towards the norwegian sea. and it's down along those isobars the cold air will propagate ever further south. such that sunday will be a much colder and fresher day than anything we've experienced over the past few days. that process starts tonight, once the weather front is a way the showers and there will be plenty of them get into the north and east of scotland into the northeast of england. one or two further west. in between those shower belts the skies are going to clear. and i think we will end up with a touch of frost anywhere really in the heart of scotland maybe into the heart of england as well. so we are off to, for some, a frosty start on sunday. plenty of sunshine around provided you're not getting bombarded with the showers rattling in on this cold northerly wind. so a bit of winteriness across the north what was there perhaps the best of the temperatures i can find for you and it's only the favoured few that get into double figures in the southwest having had that shock to your system on sunday, we cut off the supply of the nor the lease at least on monday with a high—pressure beginning to nose in from the atlantic and just those isobars bending back towards a west or northwesterly. and the wind not as strong. so it looks as though it's going to be a quieter, calmer sort of day. the best of the sunshine southern scotland, parts of northern ireland, certainly across a good part of england and wales. a lot of dry weather around but despite the presence of the sunshine, we are really struggling to get those temperatures up to the sort of values that we may well of enjoyed in recent days. having set that scene of cooler weather both by day and by night that's the way we keep it coming. a lot of dry weather around as well. but it really will be much cooler than of late. this is bbc news the headlines at seven the world health organisation says it is very worried about the rise in covid cases in europe saying the disease is once again the continent's biggest killer and warns the uk against complacency. success today does not mean success tomorrow. because no country is an island. more than 50 people have been arrested, after protests over new covid restrictions in rotterdam erupted into rioting last night. record numbers of migrants crossing the channel prompts a government review a public consultation starts on a potential ban on single—use plastics like disposable cutlery and polystyrene boxes in england and coming up in sportsday — england beat south africa by one point at twickenham.

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