business now and we begin with a focus on the uk where the latest inflation numbers are out in a few hours and prices are expected to hit the highest level in a decade. high—energy costis level in a decade. high—energy cost is a big reason why as is the current supply chain —— chain issues and a shortage in the labour market. most economists say that inflation will be around 3.9% in october which far exceeds the bank of england target of 2%. so what will our central bank do next? i will talk to a uk economist in a moment but first he was colette smith. it is lunchtime at nursery and with 63 hungry mouths to feed, staff here have their hounds fall. paul has increased two hours recently to make sure she gets enough to cover the days at home. i gets enough to cover the days at home. ., ., , at home. i get more money in but then _ at home. i get more money in but then i— at home. i get more money in but then i paid _ at home. i get more money in but then i paid out _ at home. i get more money in but then i paid out for - at home. i get more money in but then i paid out for food i but then i paid out forfood and fuel, clothes. but then i paid out for food and fuel, clothes.- but then i paid out for food and fuel, clothes. sarah has 12-year-old _ and fuel, clothes. sarah has 12-year-old twins _ and fuel, clothes. sarah has 12-year-old twins so - and fuel, clothes. sarah has 12-year-old twins so the - and fuel, clothes. sarah has - 12-year-old twins so the weekly 12—year—old twins so the weekly shop is getting to be more of a worry. shop is getting to be more of a wor . , shop is getting to be more of a wor . y ., , ., , worry. everything has gone up. it may only _ worry. everything has gone up. it may only be _ worry. everything has gone up. it may only be 50 _ worry. everything has gone up. it may only be 50 or _ worry. everything has gone up. it may only be 50 or 60p - worry. everything has gone up. it may only be 50 or 60p here | it may only be 50 or 60p here but at the end it adds up. you'rejust keeping but at the end it adds up. you're just keeping ahead of flow? absolutely. you're happy if you have 20 or £30 at the end of month.— if you have 20 or £30 at the end of month. with diesel and etrol at end of month. with diesel and petrol at record _ end of month. with diesel and petrol at record highs, - end of month. with diesel and petrol at record highs, just - petrol at record highs, just getting to and from work is easing up more of everyone's wages. i easing up more of everyone's wanes. . easing up more of everyone's wa 1 es. ., ., easing up more of everyone's wanes. . ., ., wages. i am in a position where i cannot not _ wages. i am in a position where i cannot not use _ wages. i am in a position where i cannot not use the _ wages. i am in a position where i cannot not use the car. - wages. i am in a position where i cannot not use the car. so - wages. i am in a position where i cannot not use the car. so it i i cannot not use the car. so it is starting to affect my wallet. , is starting to affect my wallet. .,, , is starting to affect my wallet. , , ., wallet. those eye watering fuel costs means — wallet. those eye watering fuel costs means that _ wallet. those eye watering fuel costs means that alex - wallet. those eye watering fuel costs means that alex has - wallet. those eye watering fuel costs means that alex has to i costs means that alex has to cut spending on other things. we all used to go to sainsbury or tesco's but at the moment with how fuel prices are increasing it is just as cheap to go to bp or shell garages now because it is just astronomically expensive. if you earn a minimum wage and you have family who live far away it makes a lot more difficult to be able to travel to see them and especially during the christmas period.— christmas period. christmas is alwa s christmas period. christmas is always an _ christmas period. christmas is always an expensive _ christmas period. christmas is always an expensive time - christmas period. christmas is always an expensive time of l always an expensive time of year so with the price of essentials going up at the same time it will be a difficult few weeks. the bad news is that the bank of england and businesses from hotels through to restaurants all say that the biggest price increases will actually be coming in the new year. ., . , actually be coming in the new year. ., ., , ., , ., year. unfortunately it does not look like pressures _ year. unfortunately it does not look like pressures will - year. unfortunately it does not look like pressures will get - look like pressures will get any easierforfamilies look like pressures will get any easier for families and they do come at a bad time so a lot of families have seen their universal payment, universal credit payments cut by £20 a week and that means that on the one hand they are buffeted by their income falling at the same time as prices are rising and many people will be feeling very anxious about how to manage those pressures. llouiith manage those pressures. with hi . her manage those pressures. with higher bills — manage those pressures. with higher bills for _ manage those pressures. with higher bills for all _ higher bills for all essentials, workers in every industry are making small changes just to stick to their budgets. colette smith, bbc news in halifax. if we look at what has happened in the last 2a hours, uk wholesale gas prices have gone up wholesale gas prices have gone up ljy wholesale gas prices have gone up by as much as i7%. and this is because germany's energy regulator has suspended the approval process for the controversial nord stream two natural gas pipeline from russia to germany that bypasses ukraine. the regulator says that certification of the project will only be considered onceit project will only be considered once it is wanted operator, based in switzerland, has formed a company under german law. let's talk to janet about this, the investment director. good morning, janet. this problem with the nord stream two and being approved it is very political and yet it is constantly pushing up gas prices. constantly pushing up gas rices. ., , prices. good morning sally. thank you _ prices. good morning sally. thank you for _ prices. good morning sally. thank you for having - prices. good morning sally. thank you for having me. . thank you for having me. absolutely. this is a political situation because the pipeline, it is an underground pipeline which goes directly from russia and germany so it would bypass company such as ukraine and some other central european countries which actually get a lot of fees from transporting gas. so it is a political situation and, of course, we are still waiting the german regulators to approve the pipeline and it does seem that the additional capacity and supply to central europe is going to be delayed at least until early next year. so it means basically in winter this year we will not get cheap supply from russia and as a result there is higher pressure on the price of national —— natural gas. on the price of national -- natural gas.— on the price of national -- natural gas. on the price of national -- natural as. ~ . , ., natural gas. we have seen it go u . natural gas. we have seen it go u- and natural gas. we have seen it go no and no _ natural gas. we have seen it go no and no and _ natural gas. we have seen it go no and no and it _ natural gas. we have seen it go up and up and it is _ natural gas. we have seen it go up and up and it is impacting i up and up and it is impacting the uk and most european countries, isn't it? this higher gas price which causes inflationary pressure. absolutely. the national gas prices have increased three times already this year and there was some easing of the price in recent weeks but after the news that the pipeline will be delayed it rose nearly i2% yesterday. so does suggest that in the near term at least if we get through the cold winter than we are likely to see high gas prices throughout europe because russia has a high percentage of gas supply into europe, ia countries are relying on 50% of their energy supply from russia. that is a critical situation.— critical situation. also, the - rice critical situation. also, the rice of critical situation. also, the orice of oil— critical situation. also, the price of oil are _ critical situation. also, the price of oil are stubbornlyl price of oil are stubbornly high as well. a barrel of brent is around $83 a barrel. and there is no sign of that changing either in the near term. what is your thoughts on oil? a , ~ oil? exactly. ithink the organisation _ oil? exactly. ithink the organisation for - oil? exactly. ithink the organisation for petroll organisation for petrol exporting countries are holding back supply of oil at the moment and as a result the alternative sources for energy have limited supply at the moment when demand is very strong and when people start travelling and flying again so this is problematic. it is likely to remain elevated as well as other alternative energy sources such as liquefied natural gas from the usa because there is so much demand and competition from asian buyers as well. in the near term, asian buyers as well. in the nearterm, energy asian buyers as well. in the near term, energy prices are going to stay inflated and households are likely to see a near—term inflation pressure. good to talk to you, janet and thank you for that analysis. let's bring in liz martins, the uk economist with hsbc. good morning and i hope you heard that conversation. the situation with gas prices is not going to make things any easier is it when it comes to uk inflation numbers? it really is not. uk inflation numbers? it really is not- we _ uk inflation numbers? it really is not. we are _ uk inflation numbers? it really is not. we are already - is not. we are already expecting a huge hike in uk household energy bills in april and that is already more or less lock in. these latest moves probably do not affect that but, you know, in some countries in europe we have seen government stepped in to try and cushion the blow. we have not seen that here in the uk. so households are already expect a big rise in april and what these additional moves mean, they do not fall back is that perhaps we will have a further rise again a few months later in 2022 and just keeps that inflation rate elevated. so what are your thoughts on what the number might be today and also in the months ahead was to mark you mention that cpi inflation last month was 3.1% and that to rise all the way to a.0% and this is the reading for october and there are a couple of things going on. , ., , ., , on. one is household energy rices. on. one is household energy orices- we — on. one is household energy prices. we have _ on. one is household energy prices. we have already - on. one is household energy prices. we have already had| on. one is household energy i prices. we have already had the first type in october but, also, the government withdrew a cut to vat for hospitality in october which was keeping prices down in cafe's and restaurants. so we see big jump now to quattro% and, unfortunately, for various reasons including the fuel prices that you mentioned in household energy prices, we see inflation remaining around the a% mark for the next few months and then coming down only really two or 3% by the end of 2022. some see it even higher. i think the bank of england is forecasting the inflation rate to reach 5% next year. shire forecasting the inflation rate to reach 596 next year. are we still calling — to reach 596 next year. are we still calling that _ to reach 596 next year. are we still calling that transitory - still calling that transitory then? the short term painful problem? then? the short term painful oroblem?_ problem? everything is transitory _ problem? everything is transitory eventually i problem? everything is| transitory eventually but problem? everything is i transitory eventually but it problem? everything is - transitory eventually but it is lasting longer than i think many had expected. yes, hopefully with the pandemic receding when it does and some of the bottlenecks out of asia starting to ease then we hope that some of those global pressures will recede and that will bring price pressures down in the uk and elsewhere in the world. it has lasted longer and it is still a worry. the governor on monday said he was very uneasy with inflation pressures and i think it has gone on longer than anyone really expected it. and for it to still be exhilarating now. and, briefly, your predictions than on interest rates, when they will go up and by how much? ~ ., ., , much? we are forecasting free interest rate _ much? we are forecasting free interest rate rises _ much? we are forecasting free interest rate rises in _ much? we are forecasting free interest rate rises in the - interest rate rises in the first one will come in february. we may have to wait a little longer but as you mention, many people expect that come just before christmas. that is also very possible. we then —— we don't think they will do to morbid at a gradual moderate pace so one in august and then another in february 22 or three. but when ou sa february 22 or three. but when you say a _ february 22 or three. but when you say a gradual _ february 22 or three. but when you say a gradual pace - february 22 or three. but when you say a gradual pace is - february 22 or three. but when you say a gradual pace is a - february 22 or three. but when you say a gradual pace is a .25| you say a gradual pace is a .25 a percentage time less than that. , ~ ., a percentage time less than that. , . ., ., a percentage time less than that. , . . ., that. yes. we are a ten basis oints that. yes. we are a ten basis ooints right _ that. yes. we are a ten basis points right now— that. yes. we are a ten basis points right now so _ that. yes. we are a ten basis points right now so the - that. yes. we are a ten basis points right now so the first i points right now so the first rate rise will be 15 taking us to .25 and then two further .25 rises getting us back to 0.75%. good to talk to you. thank you for getting up so early. let's bring you some of the days of the business stories. a $ia billion takeover of uk chip designer arm by the us giant nvidia will be subject to an in—depth enquiry by the uk's competition watchdog citing security and competition concerns, the digital secretary told the competition but its authority to a phase two investigation and initial enquiry found significant competition concerns. nvidia says the merger would boost competition and innovation. hong kong based airline cathay pacific is imposing tough new restrictions on aircrew as it tries to stop the word of covid—i9. those returning to the city from the overs abroad have been told to remain at home and avoid unnecessary social contact for a total of 21 days. last month hong kong tightened its covid—i9 rules which are already some of the strictest in the world. the us drug company pfizer has signed an agreement allowing its experimental covid—i9 treatment pill to be made and sold in 95 developing nations. the deal with you when backed nonprofit medicines patent pool could make the treatment table —— available to 53% of the world's population but it includes several countries that have had large covid—i9 outbreaks including brazil. stay with us here on bbc news. still to come, betting big on fashion. we take a look at why some of india's largest companies are spending millions to purchase local high—end design brands. you are with bbc news. let's remind you of our top stories. comments in europe are looking at introducing restrictions for the unvaccinated as the continent again becomes the epicentre of the pandemic. there have been clashes on the border between poland and belarus as polish authorities use a water cannon and teargas to push back migrants. the man widely seen as second only to china's president xijinping has said the country is open for business and cannot develop in isolation. speaking at a global forum in singapore, the vice president promised to increase access for foreign firms trying to get into the country. our reporter is there at the forum. aha, country. our reporter is there at the forum.— at the forum. a real shift in tone coming _ at the forum. a real shift in tone coming from - at the forum. a real shift in tone coming from china - at the forum. a real shift in tone coming from china as| at the forum. a real shift in i tone coming from china as the vice president opened this forum. he said that china's arms were wide open for businesses around the world to come in, invest in china and to grow there as well. he said that china was committed to reform in order to make the investment climate much more favourable as trade barriers were going up around the world as a result. of course, this comes at a significant time with that top level meeting between xi jinping and the with that top level meeting between xijinping and the us presidentjoe bidenjust wrapping up yesterday. there were no major alliances or decisions of the outcome was altogether positive with both sides agreeing to work together, both sides agreeing that we need each other in order to actually grow and develop in the future. they mentioned a number of other topical subjects including the supply chain crisis and working together in order to stabilise the situation. the coronavirus, they need to work together to develop vaccines and investigate the origins of covid—i9. in coming back to the us china trade relationship saying that they have a shared purpose, a common future and need to work together in order to achieve that. now to india where some of the country's corporate fashion houses have been pumping in millions of dollars to acquire local, high—end celebrity designer brands as the country's retail market bounces back from covid. what is the business rationale and can the partnership helped take indian fashion global. we have been finding out. sam is addressing up bollywood's a listers for the last 30 years and coveted by brides across india... this works for _ brides across india... this works for me, _ brides across india... this works for me, this - brides across india... this works for me, this is - brides across india... this | works for me, this is really nice. , , ., ., nice. this is one of the best-known _ nice. this is one of the best-known designers| nice. this is one of the - best-known designers and now best—known designers and now has his designs on bigger things. and he is partnered with asia's riches billionaire to fuel his ambitious, selling a0% of his label last month. it ao% of his label last month. it is the corporatisation, it is the admin and expertise and that's most important, your dreams, your stories, someone can help you make that go global. can help you make that go ulobal. , ., ., ., global. he is not alone, reliance _ global. he is not alone, reliance also _ global. he is not alone, reliance also acquired i global. he is not alone, i reliance also acquired 5296 global. he is not alone, - reliance also acquired 5296 of reliance also acquired 52% of the oldest fashion house in india and earlier this year, his business rival picked up stakes of local fashion houses, also known to combine a traditional indian athletics with a global design ethos. each of these outfits cost thousands of dollars and investments by india's big retail brands into local high end designers is really a reflection, say analysts, of india's growing market and an aspirational class not scared to splash out on custom—made fashion. these marriages will not be easy but it's the only direction to go if indian designers, still modest in size compared to global counterparts, want to scale up meaningfully, says this luxury expert. i meaningfully, says this luxury ex - ert. ~ , meaningfully, says this luxury exert. ~' , ., expert. i think we will see a very accelerated _ expert. i think we will see a very accelerated rate - expert. i think we will see a very accelerated rate of - very accelerated rate of acquisition and change and growth and it will not always be easy and there will be dramatic breakups and fallouts and conscious uncoupling but i think things as we know it will change forever. find think things as we know it will change forever.— think things as we know it will change forever. and that could mean a whole _ change forever. and that could mean a whole lot _ change forever. and that could mean a whole lot of— change forever. and that could mean a whole lot of things, i mean a whole lot of things, from more affordable luxury lines to penetrating deeper in the local market to more aggressive bids to take indian fashion global. focusing on the uk export market, last year, £600 billion worth of goods and services were exported but only one in ten british businesses currently sells overseas, according to government figures. and it is quite far behind compared to areas like germany, denmark and the netherlands so the uk government today is publishing a 12 point export strategy to help businesses across the country help double exports. it is called made in the uk, sold to the world and in the plan there are of initiatives at their new uk tradeshow programme that is up and running to help businesses export. i have the federation of small businesses chair and thank you for being on the programme. have you seen the 12 point plan and if so, what you make? ~ ., point plan and if so, what you make? ~ . ., , make? we have indeed and very much welcome _ make? we have indeed and very much welcome the _ make? we have indeed and very much welcome the export - much welcome the export strategy and with leaders being an important intervention and step forward as well as opening up step forward as well as opening up lots of opportunities to smaller exporters smaller exporters and address challenges. sfb, you say 10%, we have about 25% of members to exported and obviously they are not the big names — just fsb, but they do need more support that we very much welcome the support in this any mention to the uk tradeshow programme, the pilot, coming out on that. that is really needed to replace the old programme that was there that was not really adapted to support smaller businesses. but this one will do and it will also enable small firms to realise the full benefit, we believe, of the new free trade agreements that where are very very supportive of. alongside that, you will see information, better information, on export finance. you'll see more access to paperless trade and also you will see other options to support small businesses. so i think it's a huge step forward. smaller businesses are very, very innovative as we know and many members, we actually have the opportunity to double numbers if we can get the right support their and so fsb is also launching its own uk trade advisory hub on the website to help small businesses access all of the support now available. in all of the support now available.— all of the support now available. , ., available. in terms of the challenges, _ available. in terms of the challenges, this - available. in terms of the challenges, this he - available. in terms of the challenges, this he has . available. in terms of the i challenges, this he has been incredibly challenging for many reasons, the global supply chain problems, companies not getting components they need and struggling to get things out and about in the logistics and also brexit, and for many, that means exporting to europe, which is our biggest export market, this has been difficult? it market, this has been difficult?— market, this has been difficult? it has and our studies _ difficult? it has and our studies repeatedly i difficult? it has and our| studies repeatedly have difficult? it has and our i studies repeatedly have shown one fifth of members he did export to the european market have stopped to do that. the only piece we see missing at the moment is a brexit support fund that is needed to help firms. that needs to be relaunched and it also needs to help small businesses access the technical skills and advice they need, but it also needs to be more widely open. previously it had restrictions on for only businesses that traded with the eu, ratherthan businesses that traded with the eu, rather than exported more generally, and there needs to be widened out and brought forward so the government has a little bit more work to do there. but i think the export strategy, we have been supportive of that and we imported into d it and a lot of our comments have thankfully been taken on board. and our comments have thankfully been taken on board.- been taken on board. and the camoaign _ been taken on board. and the camoaign is — been taken on board. and the campaign is made _ been taken on board. and the campaign is made in - been taken on board. and the campaign is made in the i been taken on board. and the campaign is made in the uk, | campaign is made in the uk, sold to the world. and made in britain is actually very strong, internationally, as a brand in terms of selling? lii< brand in terms of selling? uk brands brand in terms of selling? iiif; brands are very, very strong indeed. there is already made indeed. there is already made in britain and the government has launched this one and intensity that on the teen and we are supportive of this and we are supportive of this and we hope to double the numbers and get the support right and let's hope that many small businesses as they are already doing, can look to overseas markets to grow overseas and help them out of the pandemic. just quickly, small and medium—sized businesses in the uk are the backbone of the economy, employing most people, how have they adapted during the 20 months of covid pandemic? this the 20 months of covid oandemic?_ the 20 months of covid pandemic? the 20 months of covid andemic? �* , ~ ., ., , the 20 months of covid andemic? a ~ ., ., , ., pandemic? as we know, many are still not back _ pandemic? as we know, many are still not back up _ pandemic? as we know, many are still not back up to _ pandemic? as we know, many are still not back up to what _ pandemic? as we know, many are still not back up to what they i still not back up to what they see as normal trading so they need more support for this, they have headwinds, as you have alluded to, with increased costs in supply chains, shortages in components and raw materials coming out from overseas markets but i think at the end of the day small businesses need our support and they are very, very resilient and they are the innovators, they create supercentre private sector jobs, they create supercentre private sectorjobs, let's not forget, and as everyone says, they are the backbone but let's see that delivered. i think this export strategy goes a long way to support small businesses do that and help us with the economic recovery that we need. 0k, economic recovery that we need. ok, we will see how it goes, thank you for being on the programme. a quick look at the financial markets in asia trading and japan is down one third of a percent in hong kong half and we have the us dollar at a a.5 year high against the japanese yen, following the better—than—expected us retail sales data out and that is impacting trade in asia i know you are up—to—date. thank you for your company. see you soon. wednesday morning will be a little bit colder compared to the last couple of mornings. and, indeed, by day, it'll feel a touch fresher, too. but, overall, the next 2—3 days will remain above the average for the time of year. i want to show you the jet stream — and there is a dip in thejet stream at the moment across the uk, and you can see the blue colours — so that's the slightly colder atmosphere that's spread across the country into the early hours of wednesday. and, with the clearer skies, that means that, in many towns and cities, temperatures will be around five celsius or so, especially out towards the east and in central parts of the uk. even colder than that in aberdeen, barely above freezing. but that means a lot of bright and crisp weather in the morning, especially across central, eastern, and southern areas of the uk. not necessarily in western scotland and northern ireland, always a bit more cloud here and a chance of catching a shower. and you can see those temperatures actually not far off the average, just a fraction above. but look what happens on thursday — another change in the jet stream. now this time, the jet stream's way to the north of us, it's bulging northwards of the uk and allowing for a stream of really mild air to sweep in from the azores. so, mild south—westerlies across the uk, cloudy and damp in western and northern scotland — but where the skies clear, where the sun pops out for any lengthy period of time, temperatures will reach around 15—16, maybe even 17 celsius to the east of the highlands because of something called the foehn effect — you'll have to look that up, not enough time to explain it. but look where we are, nine celsius is the average this time of november — we are talking about 17 celsius, eight degrees above the average for the time of year. and the same pattern continues in a friday, as well — east of the highlands, possibly 17, we could get 16 also east of the pennines, and widely around ia—15 celsius. and then, a reversal in the wind direction — you can see this time, rather than from the south—west, it's coming in straight from the north. now this looks pretty cold, doesn't it? well, it won't be that cold — it will be relatively speaking, but actually, we'll be going down from 15 to around nine celsius, which, of course, is about the average for the time of year, give or take. good morning, welcome to breakfast withjon kay and sally nugent. our headlines today. pressure on the prime minister — borisjohnson faces questions from mps in the row over second jobs. are you feeling the pinch? we are all paying more at somewhere. we get the latest inflation figures later. i will be speaking to businesses and customers here in altrincham. and in sport, the fallout from a damning day for english cricket, as azeem rafiq accuses the sport of being instituionally racist.

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