Good to have you with us. We start in the us where the era of ultra cheap money is finally coming to an end. The central bank, the Federal Reserve, says this month it will start scaling back the billions of dollars it has been pumping into the economy during the pandemic. Since the start of the covid crisis, the fed has been spending 120 billion in the bond market every month, buying up debt to help keep Borrowing Costs low. It now aims to withdraw that stimulus altogether by next summer. But fed Chairjerome Powell says they can be patient about raising Interest Rates, which remain close to zero. Samira hussain reports from new york. The last on the Federal Reserve started reducing bond buying programme, it caused a huge collapse on financial market. This time, though, it seems that investors are just rolling with it. Within two months of the pandemic taking hold in america, as this came to a standstill. Financial market saw the biggest drop in decades and the economy was in freefall. The Federal Reserve quickly stepped in by cutting Interest Rates and buying bonds. This was Monetary Policy has been widely seen as successful in staving off economic collapse. But as quickly as the economy went down, it rebounded. There has been some setbacks, the economy continues to grow. It is why the us Federal Reserve believes now is the right time to scale back. It now is the right time to scale back. ,. ,. , back. It is time to taper within because back. It is time to taper within because the back. It is time to taper within because the economy has achieved essential for the progress towards our goals, and we dont think it is time yet to raise Interest Rates. There is still groundcover to reach maximum employment both in terms of employment and in terms of employment and in terms of employment and in terms of participation. The su l terms of participation. The suwly chain terms of participation. The Supply Chain Bottlenecks and shortages persist. It is a big reason inflation is at a 30 year high and job growth remains weak. They maintained is temporary and should ease some time next year. But the timing is all very uncertain. It depends on the economy and of course the virus. So the fed may be tightening the Purse Strings on bond buying, but it seems that cheap money will be around for a little while longer. Here in the uk, the Bank Of England will announce in the next few hours whether it will start raising the cost of borrowing from its record low. The banks Chief Economist has warned that inflation could hit 5 early next year, well over double the banks 2 target. But the decision to raise Interest Rates has been described as on a knife edge. Lets speak to simon french, Chief Economist at panmure gordon. Good morning. If wejust good morning. If we just start with the fed, the us and what was announced, your reaction to that . H,. ,. ,. , that . Good morning. Yes, as entirely buttered that . Good morning. Yes, as entirely buttered from that . Good morning. Yes, as entirely buttered from the i entirely buttered from the Federal Reserve, they will slow that. My reaction is it guided markets pretty well over the last 18 months. It assured markets there wasnt going to be a Credit Crunch to viable businesses like there was after the Global Financial crisis, and that really tees up other major Central Banks including the Bank Of England to be gradual, but also acknowledge the successes that have been had in protecting households and businesses over the last two years. And businesses over the last two years two years. Yes, because we obviously two years. Yes, because we obviously didnt two years. Yes, because we obviously didnt see two years. Yes, because we obviously didnt see any two years. Yes, because we | obviously didnt see any kind of Taper Tantrum at all, rather markets, wall street, the snp 500, the nasdaq clothing at record highs. They do seem to feel they are getting a lot of transparency from the fed. Yes, and that is transparency from the fed. Yes, and that is to transparency from the fed. Yes, and that is to their transparency from the fed. Yes, and that is to their credit. And that is to their credit. There are plenty of your view until we be concerned about the inflation but it is very clear to central bankers, certainly clear to me that higher Interest Rates and indeed a slow rate of purchases has a Material Difference on what is a largely bottleneck markets are sure this isnt a policy mistake that the fed is going to have to regret and potentially regress. To have to regret and otentiall recress. ,. , potentially regress. Left about the bank of potentially regress. Left about the Bank Of England potentially regress. Left about the Bank Of England because l the Bank Of England because Andrew Bailey, the governor, said they have to act in the act of Rising Energy prices and other prizes across the country. Your thoughts on whether central bank might do today . It whether central bank might do toda . ,. , ~ today . It is a knife edge. It habited about today . It is a knife edge. It habited about 5050. Today . It is a knife edge. It habited about 5050. We | today . It is a knife edge. It habited about 5050. We think habited about 50 50. We think we will buy for a bit more time. We have another meeting in december and time. We have another meeting in decemberand in time. We have another meeting in december and in february, a bit more data on the end of the furlough scheme, and if we are still on furlough, this is Protection Scheme in the uk that protected jobs during the pandemic, have those people found jobs or are they still seeking jobs . A little more data is needed. It would be surprising if it didnt go by 15 basis points. Again, not light financial conditions households by any scope, but markets are pricing for potential four, potentially five rate increases. That is more problematic for the Bank Of England and that is what we have to talk too late in the day when the Bank Of England governor Andrew Bailey provides his assessment. We governor Andrew Bailey provides his assessment. Governor Andrew Bailey provides his assessment. We have had the cost of borrowing his assessment. We have had the cost of borrowing at his assessment. We have had the cost of borrowing at next his assessment. We have had the cost of borrowing at next to cost of borrowing at next to nothing for a very long period of time, so as you say, to what extent will a small increase in the cost of borrowing really impact inflation in the uk, which is largely driven by energy, Global Energy markets at the moment. Energy, Global Energy markets at the moment. Yes, sally, you are riaht at the moment. Yes, sally, you are right on at the moment. Yes, sally, you are right on the at the moment. Yes, sally, you are right on the money at the moment. Yes, sally, you are right on the money there i are right on the money there in terms of psychological impact in all of this, household borrowers, business are very, very used to Interest Rates really only heading one way, so there may be a psychological reaction, but also households, as you say, buffeted by double digit increases in Standard Energy tariffs in october and anticipating that again in april. The message from both Bank Of England and the chancellor and the government over the next few months is key to how households and businesses respond, it doesnt get in the way of what has been a decent rebound in economic growth. {eek has been a decent rebound in economic growth. Has been a decent rebound in economic growth. 0k good to talk to you. Economic growth. 0k good to talk to you, simon. Economic growth. 0k good to talk to you, simon. Have economic growth. 0k good to talk to you, simon. Have a i economic growth. 0k good to i talk to you, simon. Have a good day. Simon frenchjoining us with his thoughts on what central bank might do. When we get news of the decisions, we will let you know. Lets turn to the cop26 Climate Change summit in glasgow where countries Around The World are pledging today to end all new investment in coal today, and committing to phasing out coal power from 2030. It comes as scientists warn Fossil Fuel Emissions could rebound to pre pandemic levels this year and rise even further next year. But the boss of Oil Giant Shell has told the bbc they need the money from fossil fuels to fund the transition to a greener future. Hes been speaking to the bbc� s Business Editor simonjack at europes Biggest Oil Refinery in the netherlands. 20 million tons of oil a year flow through the largest refinery in europe. Globally, shell has a carbon foot rent the size of russias. The size of russias. What you see is predominantly the size of russias. What you see is predominantly a see is predominantly a refinery. See is predominantly a refinery see is predominantly a refine. �. , refinery. Achieving negative sa s refinery. Achieving negative says transition refinery. Achieving negative says transition to refinery. Achieving negative says transition to net refinery. Achieving negative says transition to net zero l refinery. Achieving negative| says transition to net zero is possible but it will need the money from its oil and gas business for many years to pay for it. , w , business for many years to pay forit. , ,. , for it. This facility is going to be transformed. For it. This facility is going to be transformed. It for it. This facility is going to be transformed. It will| to be transformed. It will produce biofuels, we will produce biofuels, we will produce hydrogen over the horizon, all these things can only be done if you actually have a facility to work with, but also, if you have the cash to invest with it, and that cash at this point in time comes from our legacy business. But it is not all legacy. Shell wants to develop a new oilfield in the north sea. 0il wants to develop a new oilfield in the north sea. Oil and gas demand from our own resources are probably the most valid resources, but imported from somewhere else with a larger Carbon Footprint. I dont think thatis Carbon Footprint. I dont think that is going to contribute, of course, not to the balance of payments of the country, but also not to the Carbon Footprint of the world. Shell plans to spend four times as much on oil and gas are nonrenewable next year, which is why some doubt can i buy a dutch court order to halve its net emissions by 2030 and eliminate them by 2050. Even if ou are eliminate them by 2050. Even if you are very eliminate them by 2050. Even if you are very generous eliminate them by 2050. Even if you are very generous and eliminate them by 2050. Even if you are very generous and they| you are very generous and they get all the amounts of Carbon Capture and storage and offsets that they need, they mightjust miss the 2030 targets and they will not be able to deliver on 2050. In fact, they will be increasing emissions till 2030 and still be producing significant amounts of emissions in 2050. He insists shell doesnt emissions in 2050. He insists shell doesnt own emissions in 2050. He insists shell doesnt own emissions l emissions in 2050. He insists i shell doesnt own emissions are on track. B, compared, we are on track to get two 50 by 2030. That is going to be measured, will be scorecards and part of my bonus is going to be dependent on us meeting that. Is going to be dependent on us meeting that. Remember, these tar ets meeting that. Remember, these targets dont meeting that. Remember, these targets dont include meeting that. Remember, these targets dont include emissions i targets dont include emissions from Customers Using shell product. That is 90 of the total footprint. Product. That is 90 of the totalfootprint. This product. That is 90 of the total footprint. This gigantic oil refinery is changing to make less carbon intensive products. They wont be good or fast enough for some people. They would probably like to see it shut down tomorrow. 0ur lives are still entwined with injuries reads like this, and if you have a pension, you own shares in shell and bp. But there are those who think we should be withdrawing our financial backing for Industries Like this. Selling up Industries Like this. Selling up and walking away would be a mistake according to the worlds biggest money manager. We cant have the dialogue with companies if we are not invested in them. By being invested in them. By being invested in the companies, we have that seat at the table, to engage with them. We cant divest from the world. This divest from the world. As powerful divest from the world. As powerful as divest from the world. As powerful as shell is, customers may be more powerful. As long as there is demand for fossil fuels, Shell Orsomeone as there is demand for fossil fuels, shell or someone else will supply. Lets talk this through. Dr Deborah Brosnan is president of the Environmental Consultancy Deborah Brosnan and associates. Good morning to you. My colleague, simonjack� s report colleague, simon jacks report that colleague, simonjack� s report that clearly illustrating the challenge facing the likes of shell, many other huge organisations within the fossil fuel industry. Give us your reaction to this commitment at cop26 that 190 nations, organisations pledging to quit coal. Your thoughts on that to begin with . I coal. Your thoughts on that to begin with . Begin with . I think it is a wonderful begin with . I think it is a wonderful start begin with . I think it is a wonderful start because| begin with . I think it is a i wonderful start because we begin with . I think it is a wonderful start because we do need to reduce our dependence on coal. The question is can we do it quickly enough, can we do it fast enough in order to keep temperatures below 1. 5 or two. I think that is critical. We did not see the us signup to it, or china or india signup to it. Clearly, ithink it, or china or india signup to it. Clearly, i think the world has a great appetite to move toward renewables, to move away from coal. The question is how are we going to get there while we still can maintain our quality of life . We still can maintain our quality of life . That is ust about what i quality of life . That is ust about what i i quality of life . That is ust about what i was i quality of life . That isjust about what i was going i quality of life . That isjust about what i was going to | quality of life . That isjust i about what i was going to say. Some of those huge economies that are cold dependent you have mentioned, the us, china, india, australia, one of them signed up for this pledge, and it is a pledge, that is a worry for many, that once we all move from glasgow, day to day life kicks in again and we are looking at a recovery from an era of covid. Will those badges become a reality . I era of covid. Will those badges become a reality . Become a reality . I am afraid that many become a reality . I am afraid that many of become a reality . I am afraid that many of them become a reality . I am afraid that many of them wont. I become a reality . I am afraid i that many of them wont. What we saw from covid has shocked many of us, which is as you have noticed the use of coal has gone way up, we had an Energy Shortage and the only thing we can turn to our fossil fuels right now in order to be able to meet demand. The value of cop26 is that it is highlighting the importance of taking action rapidly on Climate Change. But the problem is that we can all make pledges and all countries are making pledges with the best will in the world, but what we have seen repeatedly in the last 26 years as these pledges have no action associated with them, they have no accountability and therefore they dont happen. [30 therefore they dont happen. Do we need to see governments having to enforce some of these measures then, and actually say, we are going to make this a legal requirement . A legal requirement . Yes, i think we a legal requirement . Yes, i think we absolutely a legal requirement . Yes, i think we absolutely do. I a legal requirement . Yes, i think we absolutely do. We | a legal requirement . Yes, i think we absolutely do. We need to find ways to hold governments accountable for the pledges that they make and also to make Companies Accountable for the pledges that they make and to have a legal way of doing this. Now, we are seeing in other industries the sec for instance in the us and the eu and the uk Stock Market Demand that Companies Start be more transparent in their climate impact. But we do need to see more governments bring in more regulation, and we need to see more accountability for governments themselves. In terms of china, the us, the worlds two biggest economies, moving away from coal, what do you think needs to be happening for that . You think needs to be happening forthat . I you think needs to be happening for that . ,. , for that . I think what is happening for that . I think what is happening in for that . I think what is happening in the i for that . I think what is happening in the us i for that . I think what is l happening in the us now for that . I think what is i happening in the us now is for that . I think what is happening in the us now is very hope all. Bidens plan, which now includes 500 billion for investment in the renewable energy, which would give incentives as much as accountability and credits to Companies Moving toward renewables, to the development of new renewables, i think we will see a big push there, that is a great way to start the transition. The question is, will it happen fast enough . As we have seen already, he is not getting all the support he needs to pass that group. So we do have some pushback. fiiq do have some pushback. 0k, thank you do have some pushback. 0k, thank you for do have some pushback. 0k, thank you for your do have some pushback. 0k, thank you for your time, your expertise this morning. Stay with us on bbc news. Still to come its november 4, must be time for christmas adverts why uk retailers are starting their festive marketing even earlier than usual this year. The israeli prime minister, yitzhak rabin, the architect of The Middle East peace process, has been assassinated. A 27 year old jewish man has been arrested and an Extremistjewish Organisation has claimed responsibility for the killing. At Polling Booths throughout the country, they voted on a historic day for australia. As the results came in, it was clear the monarchy would survive. Of the american hostages, there was no sign they are being held somewhere inside the compound and Student Leaders have threatened that, should i the americans attempt. Rescue, they will all die. This mission has surpassed all expectations. Voyager one is now the most distant man made object anywhere in the universe, and itjust seems to keep on going. Tonight, we prove once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals. This is bbc world news. The latest headlines new findings show a vaccine is saving lives, by reducing cases of Cervical Cancer by 90 . Carbon emissions are set to rebound after the covid 19 dip rising by almost the same amount that they dropped in 2020. Lets return to the subject of energy because Oil Producing nations are under pressure to pump more crude as fuel costs soar Around The World. Earlier this week President Biden blamed a surge in oil and gas prices on a refusal by members of 0pec the group of Oil Producing nations to boost production. The group meets today to review their policy. Amrita sen is director of research at the Energy Consultancy energy aspects. I think they are going to hold course, they are going to go with their monthly barrels that they have done, and it will continue through to september 2022. What is the price of the moment . It came off quite a bit yesterday. There was concern about a resurgence of covid cases in china, about 82 for brent. You were talking about the fact you thought the price we got significantly this year and into next, still believe that . � , and into next, still believe that . ~ y y and into next, still believe that . ~ r q. , that . Absolutely. Youre going to net that . Absolutely. Youre going to get shortterm that . Absolutely. Youre going to get shortterm volatility, i to get short term volatility, because of the winter and we are going to get some negative headlines but ultimately, this is a market which has been underinvestment. I will say this, blaming the gas price increase, it doesnt do anything or has anything to do with gas, these are politicians lashing out because they dont want to be blamed for High Oil Prices but the reality is, because of Energy Transition policies over the last couple of years, were just not seeing financing in the oil and gas sector and youve seen investment,. This is a structural change. Its a structural change. Its a structural change. Its a structural change we are seeing needs to happen. Bud structural change we are seeing needs to happen. Needs to happen. And shining a liuht on needs to happen. And shining a light on that needs to happen. And shining a light on that more needs to happen. And shining a light on that more than needs to happen. And shining a light on that more than ever needs to happen. And shining a light on that more than ever as | light on that more than ever as cop26. The boss of shell said we need the money now to Fund Investment in the future. Absolutely, and the bigger issueis absolutely, and the bigger issue is governments need to allow higher prices because what we havent done is moved demand away from fossil fuels. You come up with the legislation, supply comes up. What about consumers of oil and gas. Forthat, what about consumers of oil and gas. For that, they may be have to all pay higher prices. Governments wont allow that because it becomes political, its a voter base, you cant haveit its a voter base, you cant have it both ways. Its a voter base, you cant have it both ways. Surely, into the new year, have it both ways. Surely, into the new year, there have it both ways. Surely, into the new year, there will have it both ways. Surely, into the new year, there will be i the new year, there will be pressure on 0pec the new year, there will be pressure on opec to pump more oil . Make sure the consuming countries, china, india, the japan, they will call for more oil but the reality is, they are saying, look, the gas crisis in coal crisis, yes our prices are high. This is due to the lack of investment. There are concerns around demand, theyjust are concerns around demand, they just dont want to deviate. Always good to talk to you, thank you for getting up so early stop i said already finally, its only november it with the halloween i pumpkins already pumpkins barely cleared away. But in the world of advertising, the Festive Season is now upon us. Marks spencer has Just Launched its christmas food and clothing campaigns, and the annual high budget tear jerker from john lewis is due to hit tv screens in a few hours. The Global Supply chain crisis means consumers may decide to shop early, so many retailers are starting christmas marketing even earlier than normal. M s says it expects half of its customers to have done their gift shopping by the end of november. Lynne deason is head of creative excellence at the analytics and brand consultancy kantar uk. Good morning to you. So well having to just swallow this, are we, the fact that this has been forced on us earlier than ever . ,. , been forced on us earlier than ever . , ,. ,. Ever . There is some resistance to that. People ever . There is some resistance to that. People love ever . There is some resistance to that. People love christmasl to that. People love christmas advertising generally but when it comes to early, it would be a bitter pill to swallow. I must admit, i love christmas ads in the whole season. But we havent even in the uk, we are on bbc world news, an International Audience watching as well, but we havent even had Bonfire Night with the christmas ads are coming out. Traditionally some brands really respect Armistice Day so we would see a lot of brands breaking their advertising, so after the 11th Of November but this year, with some of the Supply Pressures as you were saying, some people are concerned about getting their Christmas Gifts early. Business is at the end of the day want to get their biggest share of the pie so these christmas ads are hitting the screens early but people do love them, they are a key part of christmas, they get is in the mood for christmas, people really enjoy them, as do i. Christmas, people really enoy them, as do li them, as do i. What other trends you them, as do i. What other trends you are them, as do i. What other trends you are seeing i them, as do i. What other trends you are seeing in l them, as do i. What other. Trends you are seeing in the this year . Trends you are seeing in the this year . Its early days yet. Last this year . Its early days yet. Last year this year . Its early days yet. Last year we this year . Its early days yet. Last year we saw this year . Its early days yet. Last year we saw nostalgia, l last year we saw nostalgia, with disney plus, escapism and humour coming through, christmas this year is more important for people, theyre really looking forward to engaging with it and enjoying. So think thejoy engaging with it and enjoying. So think the Joy Of Christmas is really important coming through. Weve seen as well the people are planning to spend less, so i think the True Meaning Of Christmas will also be important for us to see coming through in the christmas ads this year. In coming through in the christmas ads this year ads this year. In terms of to what extent ads this year. In terms of to what extent these ads this year. In terms of to what extent these ads i ads this year. In terms of to what extent these ads do i ads this year. In terms of to i what extent these ads do drive sales, even to what extent we will go to a certain shop, what evidence have you got of that . Its interesting, if you ask someone, does advertising influence you, they would say no. Different brands will have different object of this, so some ads will be trying to get people out of the store instantly. And then does showcasing their food is a highlight of this advertising the people always enjoy, that will get people into stores but its notjust about will get people into stores but its not just about the short term return, its also about what people think and feel about the brands in the long term. These ads create memories and Lasting Impressions so that they generate long term business, not just the short term generate long term business, notjust the short term hit. Good to talk to you, thank you very much indeed. I give having me. Back to wall street, all three main indices ended at record highs again following the announcements we got on the Federal Reserve, the fourth record close in a row for the dow and 15 over the nasdaq and the borders market, the s p so investors are relieved that there seems to be no rush to raise Interest Rates in the us. Lets show you what is happening now in asia as well, we are not surprising to see a continuation of the gains in wall street, japan up by almost 1 and hong kongs hang seng up by a third of a percent. You can see the price of rent crew there, 81, so there you have it, that is the end of the day on wall street. Another record close. It would seem the appetite for Buying Equities is not waning at all, despite some of the gloomier news we are getting about the outlook, certainly with regards to the crisis in terms of the climate. You are up to date on all the news, i am on twitter. Tell me, what is your favourite christmas and from years gone by . I can still see the dog on the trampoline. See you soon. Hello. A chillier feel to the weather this thursday. Yesterday we saw some decent sunshine early on in the day, and the cloud built up. Today its likely to be a similar scenario. But where we do have the sunshine, it will still feel cooler because of the wind, and because weve pulled in colder airfrom the north through the course of the night. A frost to start the day, all the way down from scotland into the welsh marshes. Milder initially across eastern england, but here, a chance of some showers through the day, some coming in down the north sea coast, as well, and nagging northerly wind here. Again, showers for pembrokeshire and cornwall. For the majority, though, its shaping up to be a fine day with some sunny spells, temperatures at best 9 10 celsius and feeling cooler because of the breeze. But youll notice through thursday evening and overnight more cloud coming into the north of the uk, it will bring a bit of rain, as well. This is a warm Weather Front the clue is of course in the name. Its ushering in warmerair behind it so by the end of thursday night, friday morning, its actually much milder across scotland and Northern Ireland. And that milder air will then continue to tip its way south across the uk through friday around this big area of High Pressure. So High Pressure keeps things fine, it should also means the winds become lighter and, with the milder air moving in, it will just feel a little bit warmer on friday. A lot of fine weather, perhaps the sunshine not quite as widespread, but the temperatures lift up by 1 2 degrees. And it will remain fine into the evening if you have plans for Bonfire Night. Aside from, i think some Rain For Northern and western scotland. And for the weekend, we are looking at milder air taking over from the atlantic. Perhaps not especially mild, but certainly warmer than the air will be sitting in for thursday. Saturday, very windy across the uk, some rain for Northern Ireland and scotland to start the day. A bit brighter come the afternoon with some showers but temperatures, were looking at 13 14 celsius with sunshine to the south. Sunday, lighter winds. Were still in a relatively milder air. Picking up a little bit of a northwesterly, though, across scotland, it could feel perhaps a shade cooler here, but i think the offset will be that it will be a drier and brighter day than saturday. Good morning. Welcome to breakfast with Naga Munchetty and charlie stayt. 0ur headlines today. The hpv vaccine is cutting cases of Cervical Cancer by almost 90 . Cancer Research Calls it a historic moment. Back home safely. The australian toddler cleo smith has spent her first night with herfamily since her dramatic rescue. Police have released audio of the moment she was found. Whats your name, sweetheart . My name is cleo. Are we about to see a rise in Interest Rates . Prices going up mean thats likely to happen today. What does it mean for your pocket . Gary ballance say� s he regrets the former england cricketer