let's get down to business and we begin with global markets after us stocks suffered with losses since may, they are now positioning themselves with more central—bank action to calm inflation. commodity prices have been rising rapidly in days and this time yesterday brent crude, the international oil benchmark was trading above $80 a barrel since the first time since october 2018. having a look at street, you can see that the nasdaq was down almost 3%, the broadest market, the s&p 500 down over two and elsewhere, the price of oil has come off a little bit, down 1.5%, asian trading at happening at the moment and as you can see, it followed the trend. down 2.5%. the price of all has come off quite a bit, bringing relief to the fears about commodity prices, currently $77 a barrel but this time yesterday, above 80. let's talk to the chief market analyst with scope markets. good morning, another rocky ride for global markets? absolutely. this has been coming in when you look at the recovery that the financial markets, especially the us stock market that had the pandemic really hit since the middle of 2020, we have seen a meteoric rise and it again stimulus being pumped by the economy by the federal reserve and the government to enable business to carry on and the stock market to go higher on what they have done, what the federal reserve has done and what many have done around the world is focused on inflation and employment. it wanted to get inflation higher and unemployment higher from the record lows. by pumping the money in the economy, they very much have done that but of course inflation is now running incredibly high so with inflation very high, the worry now comes in about what the fed will do and how aggressively they will do it by removing some of that stimulus and that then makes the market start to panic. when the market panics, the one thing we don't need is oil prices and commodity prices continuing to rise higher. within the price of oil come down the last day and i talk to an oil analyst about it and the bank of england also, the governor sang late monday in a speech that actually this year interest rates could be going up interest rates could be going up in the uk and many are thinking the fed may act sooner rather than later and the markets are trying to predict that, price that in?— that, price that in? that is absolutely _ that, price that in? that is absolutely right. - that, price that in? that is absolutely right. and - that, price that in? that is absolutely right. and it's l absolutely right. and it's something the markets have been trying to do for some time, all to do with what we call tapering and that is actually when central—bank start to remove that stimulus that they have been pumping in. at the moment they buy a number of assets every single month. by tapering that back, they start to do less and a little bit less and continue to do that until they actually start taking it away. it is how aggressively the fed and other central banks will do that and that comes along also with a usually a path to when we see a rate hike. what the rumours are about the fed and in the us is what we could potentially see is that at the same time tapering is happening, and at a much thinner rate than what we expect, the fed will start to raise interest rates because inflation is so high and they need to get that under control. that will be a big issue in the uk and the us if interest rates went up because, yes, unemployment is doing better, but the one thing that is not going up his wages and if wages do not go up, it is very, very difficult to raise interest rates which means you raise everybody�*s debt payment. rates which means you raise everybody's debt payment. thank ou for everybody's debt payment. thank you for explaining _ everybody's debt payment. thank you for explaining that. _ let's focus on the fear of why inflation may be rising, the price of oil. goldman sachs is predicting it could climb by $10 a barrel by the end of this year and 0pec�*s world outlook reports as it will keep growing and the world needs to keep investing to make sure that further supply issues do not occur even as we move away from fossil fuels. occur even as we move away from fossilfuels. let's occur even as we move away from fossil fuels. let's discuss this with the director of research at energy aspect, lovely to see you. first of all, why has the price come down in the last day, what is going on behind the scenes? really good to see you again. again, what is going on with oil markets fundamentally driven by, the rise has been led by demand picking up but what has happened over the last 24 what has happened over the last 2a hours, within the us government, the white house, chiming in, saying all the negotiations, talking to opec monitoring oil prices in the market theory is that the white house may force opec to add more than 400,000 barrels a day and that is the monthly incremental production is meant to be for the next year or so and we've been getting a lot of questions whether we think opec will add more than that and that's why prices are coming off a little bit but there is still a good support of these levels. �* ., , ., levels. and are you with goldman _ levels. and are you with goldman sachs - levels. and are you with goldman sachs that - levels. and are you with goldman sachs that we | levels. and are you with - goldman sachs that we could see the price of oil at $90 a barrel by the end of the year? we have been more bullish or optimistic then goldman sachs have been for a long time but for us cities next year. this year, sure, we could get $90 if it is a cold winter but that cannot be a base, right now what is going on the key driver for oil has been natural gas prices which i know you guys have been covering for a while as well. gas is so, so high right now that it is pulling oil demand back into power generation, a bit like the 19705, and that is driving oil up. we do not think that can go on for much longer. given that these gas prices you are actually getting demand destruction, industries are shutting down but next year we think oil will go to $100, inventory is around the world are very, very low. and there is no investment and this is why we have been warning of the supply crunch for some time now. , ., supply crunch for some time now, ,, ., , ., supply crunch for some time now, , ., ., supply crunch for some time now. , ., ., ~ ,, now. so you are with the ipaq, a reort now. so you are with the ipaq, a report that — now. so you are with the ipaq, a report that says _ now. so you are with the ipaq, a report that says we _ now. so you are with the ipaq, a report that says we do - now. so you are with the ipaq, a report that says we do still. a report that says we do still have to invest in oil production, even though every government worldwide trying to move away from fossil fuels —— opec? move away from fossil fuels -- opec? ~ , ., move away from fossil fuels -- opec? a y c, _, ~ move away from fossil fuels -- opec? a y e, _, ~ .,, move away from fossil fuels -- opec? a y e, ~ a, opec? why do you think gas and oil rices opec? why do you think gas and oil prices are _ opec? why do you think gas and oil prices are where _ opec? why do you think gas and oil prices are where they - opec? why do you think gas and oil prices are where they are - oil prices are where they are today? is one of the biggest impacts, the start of the impacts, the start of the impacts of energy transition. one of the biggest measures is inflation and what governments have not realised is that of course everyone wants a cleaner air and greener environments but we have not moved demand quickly enough, demand takes a long time to move and we already have stopped supplies in many areas and that's why it's creating this mismatch, we have cut down coal plants in our gases been called into base load generation, driving oil upwards. this will be very, very inflationary and we need to keep investing right now and we are barely investing enough to keep oil production flat at 100 million barrels a day let alone forfeeding 100 million barrels a day let alone for feeding growing demand. in the uk, prices are going up and that is a real concern for households as they face higher energy bills and as we were talking about there, the gas price in global markets is extremely high, petrol at the pump currently up, and then the cost of going out to eat could be on the rise as well because on friday, the much reduced rate of vat that has applied to the uk hospitality and tourism since july the uk hospitality and tourism sincejuly last year the uk hospitality and tourism since july last year is the uk hospitality and tourism sincejuly last year is heading higher. businesses say this, and top of rising costs in the supply chain and wages will force prices up at a time when they are still recovering from they are still recovering from the crippling effects of covid restrictions, and they cannot afford to lose customers. this is a business correspondent. kitchens like these have been up kitchens like these have been up and running again for a few months now but the financial shock of lockdowns means business is not quite back to normal. this birmingham restaurant group now only opens at busy times. we restaurant group now only opens at busy times-— at busy times. we still work lunchtime — at busy times. we still work lunchtime during _ at busy times. we still work lunchtime during the - at busy times. we still work lunchtime during the week. at busy times. we still work i lunchtime during the week and we stopped and then we used to run for six days and now we just do four days.— run for six days and now we just do four days. the manager said government _ just do four days. the manager said government support - just do four days. the manager said government support has i said government support has been a lifeline, not only fellow but other measures including the temporary cuts to vat. we play vat or value added tax on a wide range of goods and services on things we buy and services on things we buy and the standard rate is 20%. in july last and the standard rate is 20%. injuly last year, and the standard rate is 20%. in july last year, the chancellor cut it to 5% in food and drinks accepting cafe is in cafes for accommodation and attractions and from october, that rate rises to 12.5% before returning to 20% next april. firms don't have to pass on the lower rate to customers by lowering prices and many haven't, saying they need to pocket the difference to stay afloat. now vat is rising again, andrew is worried because other costs are also going up. because other costs are also going urn-— going up. the price of ingredients _ going up. the price of ingredients have - going up. the price of- ingredients have basically doubled. similarly, wages have increased and making things difficult to maintain the price structure we have already. the rices structure we have already. the prices may _ structure we have already. the prices may have _ structure we have already. the prices may have to _ structure we have already. the prices may have to go up? i i prices may have to go up? i think it's inevitable for the industry. i cannot think of a single restaurant that we have spoken to in the country that will be able to stomach the vat rising. a, will be able to stomach the vat risinu. �* , , ., rising. a few streets away, there is — rising. a few streets away, there is a _ rising. a few streets away, there is a hawaiian - rising. a few streets away, there is a hawaiian food i rising. a few streets away, l there is a hawaiian food cafe and the boss there is also feeling the squeeze. recently, even something _ feeling the squeeze. recently, even something like _ feeling the squeeze. recently, even something like mango i feeling the squeeze. recently, | even something like mango we buy hundreds of kilograms of mango— buy hundreds of kilograms of mango at a time, 20% to many pressures in the system, _ to many pressures in the system, and we're still not out of c0vid— system, and we're still not out of covid and i think it's premature and i think they needed _ premature and i think they needed a layer and six months. this— needed a layer and six months. this hotel— needed a layer and six months. this hotel group did drop prices, which boosted bookings. they are reluctantly having to raise them again but hope international travellers will be happy to pay. international travellers will be happy to pay-— international travellers will behau to a. ., , be happy to pay. everyone wants to travel again _ be happy to pay. everyone wants to travel again and _ be happy to pay. everyone wants to travel again and we _ be happy to pay. everyone wants to travel again and we will i be happy to pay. everyone wants to travel again and we will be i to travel again and we will be less competitive but i think until we get back on track. the treasury told _ until we get back on track. the treasury told us _ until we get back on track. the treasury told us hospitality had extensive support and it's always been clear the lower rate of vat was temporary. andrew said the industry is still fragile and is concerned with this cost of living rising customers will have little appetite for price rises. katie often, bbc news. i understand you are asking the government to make this reduction in vat permanent? yes, the vat reduction hl .5% coming in from the beginning of next month, that we believe, is the right rate to have vat for tourism related services and hospitality. it will help the businesses in the because it would take 12—18 months for them to get them through the challenges of covid and rebuild shattered balance sheets and recover and the lower rate is essential to help navigate the cost pressures and supply chain pressures that we have been seeing over the last few months. seeing over the last few months-— seeing over the last few months. ., . ., , months. the chancellor is preparing _ months. the chancellor is preparing for _ months. the chancellor is preparing for the - months. the chancellor is preparing for the autumn | preparing for the autumn statement and he's looking at all these various requests coming in from all sides. what are your hopes that you will be to? ~ ~' ., are your hopes that you will be to? ~ ~ ., ., are your hopes that you will be to? . ~' ., ., ., to? we know that the government has supported _ to? we know that the government has supported hospitality - to? we know that the government has supported hospitality and i has supported hospitality and the support we've had through the support we've had through the covid crisis has been substantial, and kept many afloat and saved many thousands of jobs afloat and saved many thousands ofjobs in the sector. it is for that reason we would hope that the chancellor would lock in lower rate of vat et al. .5% to protect the investment —— lower rate of vat at 12.5%, and the lower rate will make is internationally competitive, give british consumers a boost when they book domestic tourism going forward generating massive returns for the exchequer as we come out of the covid crisis and rebuilding and at the moment we just can't operate at full capacity and therefore the lower rate of vat is essential to protect the sector in the short term. share sector in the short term. are ou sector in the short term. are you concerned _ sector in the short term. are you concerned about the festive season, coming up, given the shortage of staff, the shortage of supplies, the problem with hgv drivers, et cetera, the list is long. hgv drivers, et cetera, the list is long-— hgv drivers, et cetera, the list is lonu. ~ . ., list is long. we have had huge challenges — list is long. we have had huge challenges over _ list is long. we have had huge challenges over summer i list is long. we have had huge challenges over summer in i challenges over summer in navigating those challenges, staff shortages, vacancy rates are 10%, which means businesses are 10%, which means businesses are not able to open fully yet. people are trading at the lower capacity because they simply cannot have the staff to manage demand. the golden quarter, half of the profits are generated between halloween and new year's eve and if we are unable to stop up at full strength to be able to take advantage of that, these businesses will remain very fragile from many more months to come and they have come out of the covid crisis most heavily indebted across the globe and this is causing fragility in the sector and so we are seeing continued shocks in the system from co2, fuel, 20% of products has not been delivered in the sector and all of that perfect storm coupled with the labour shortages mean revenue is still suppressed by 16- 20% revenue is still suppressed by 16— 20% up where they would have been at 2019 levels. this sector is undoubtedly fragile in the immediate term and it would take 18 months to recover and the best way supporting those businesses to achieve the recovery is to deliver economic growth and jobs across the country is to retain the lower rate of vat at 12.5%. 0k, ok, thank you. kate nicholl is there. let's get some of the day's other business stories. janet yellen has warned the us risks running out of money by 18 october. the treasury secretary's caution comes after the senate fails to put forward a deal to suspend the federal debt limit. fears of another government shutdown in the us could hit business and consumer confidence. the fuel situation in the uk, it is starting to improve, so says prime minister borisjohnson as he urges motorists to fill up their cars in the normal way. he said the situation at fuel stations was stabilising and people should be confident to go about their business after days of cues and pump closures. labour says the government has led the country crush from crisis to crisis. regulations of gene editing in agricultural research could be eased in england following a public consultation. rules would largely be aligned with conventional breeding methods for research and development into plants. although scientists will still be required to notify the government on any research trials. you are with bbc news. still to come: meet astro. amazon's first household rabbit. is it reallyjust alexa on wheels? —— robot. we will be talking to an expert in a moment. in all russia's turmoil, it has never quite came to this. president yeltsin said the day would decide the nation's destiny. the nightmare that so many people have feared for so long is playing out its final act here. russians are killing russians in front of a grandstand audience. it was his humility - which produced affection from catholics throughout i the world, but his departure is a tragedy for i the catholic church. this man, israel's right—winger ariel sharon, visited the religious compound — and that started the trouble. he wants israel alone to have sovereignty over the holy sites — an idea that's unthinkable to palestinians. after 45 years of division, germany is one. in berlin, a million germans celebrate the rebirth of europe's biggest and richest nation. this is bbc news. the latest headlines. new research suggests that chinese lending forforeign projects is now twice as much as that of the us and other major powers combined. british army personnel are to begin training to drive fuel tankers as the country's petrol panic continues. evergrande, the chinese property developer that is under a mountain of debt faces another interest rate payment deadline today and this one is to the tune of more than $40 million. its total debt mountain is at around $300 billion owed to hundreds of banks and other financial firms. katie silva joins us from singapore. she has been following this drama for us. katie, evergrande, today's payment, what is expected? well, really, sally, we are expecting more of the same, it is then being tightlipped. they miss that $84 million payment last thursday and we still haven't heard anything from them. offshore investors were hoping for some of this money today are likely to be disappointed. the good news that has happened with evergrande today, share prices are up 10%, that is because it said, for example, it will be selling back its state that it owns in a bank there in china. about 20%. that should see it have a cash injection of about $1.5 billion. this is nothing compared to that 300 billion that they owe. many investors hoping that this is a bright spark and they may be able to use some of these funds to perhaps repay some of these bond coupons that are owing. but it is not looking very good and, indeed, the crisis continues and no doubt we will talk about it again. i’m continues and no doubt we will talk about it again.— talk about it again. i'm sure we will- _ talk about it again. i'm sure we will. thank— talk about it again. i'm sure we will. thank you, - talk about it again. i'm sure we will. thank you, katie i talk about it again. i'm sure i we will. thank you, katie silva in singapore. now, let's take a look at amazon's latest offering that it says will revolutionise the way we live. as you can see, it is a canine like robot called astro. it is designed to take up tasks such as home monitoring, setting up teams, reminders, while rolling around the house, can turn lights on and off, that kind of thing. it is not cheap. the regular price isjust thing. it is not cheap. the regular price is just under $1500. amazon has a special invite only introductory price of $999. so $1000. among other lodges in the latest lineup were a smart thermostat, smart display eco— show 15, and a new health tracking band called halo view. let us talk this through. we have the co—founder of polygon. what do you make of astro, is it a winner well, it is a winnerfor amazon. astro, is it a winner well, it is a winner for amazon. mission accomplished — is a winner for amazon. mission accomplished on _ is a winner for amazon. mission accomplished on amazon's i is a winner for amazon. mission | accomplished on amazon's part. i do not know that they need an amazon robot rolling around my apartment. forthe amazon robot rolling around my apartment. for the time being i think they are getting the attention they wanted. isn't about a company _ attention they wanted. isn't about a company owning i attention they wanted. isn't about a company owning what you do in your home? if you are going to go down the arm zone road, does amazon not do everything for you, therefore you are not going with apple or someone else?— someone else? 100%. that is what they _ someone else? 10096. that is what they want _ someone else? 10096. that is what they want to _ someone else? 10096. that is what they want to do. - someone else? 10096. that is what they want to do. they i someone else? 10096. that is i what they want to do. they want to own every smart speaker, they want you to be subscribed to the service every month. they definitely want to make sure that they have a lock on everything. the way they do that for most people is most people just by an alexa for $100 and stick it on the shelf or on their wall and that will do the trick. the robot aspect, i don't know will appeal to most people, at least not yet. i think it is still too early. maybe in a few years we will see robots rolling around. i think this feels a little bit more like a publicity stunt. it has got there santana that comes up with a camera, that kind of thing. could be seen as useful for, kind of thing. could be seen as usefulfor, i don't know, looking after elderly people who may be at risk, for example, with alzheimer's or pets or i am trying to think of its uses... pets or i am trying to think of its uses- - -_ its uses... there are scenarios. _ its uses... there are scenarios. an - its uses... there are i scenarios. an example its uses... there are - scenarios. an example they its uses... there are _ scenarios. an example they gave was if you are worried you hadn't turned the oven off and you wanted to check if the oven was still on you could roll the robot into your kitchen and raise the little telescopic camera and point it at your oven. now, granted, if you are worried about a loved one, for example, you could have smart cameras, they exist already. you don't need a robot rolling around someone's apartment. certainly not one you would trebonne. i think there are easier souls to a lot of these problems but they don't have the spiciness of, hey, there is a new smart robot rolling through your apartment. i can see ou through your apartment. i can see you are — through your apartment. i can see you are not _ through your apartment. i can see you are not impressed. i through your apartment. i can see you are not impressed. they can tell. ., ~' see you are not impressed. they can tell. ., ,, , can tell. no, ithink is putting _ can tell. no, ithink is putting meat. - can tell. no, ithink is putting meat. just i can tell. no, i think is l putting meat. just don't can tell. no, i think is - putting meat. just don't think it is a mass—market product, not yet. it is so early, we have seen reports, base had a report from some of the developers of the project claiming it is so early it is more likely it will throw itself down the stairs than help you out. so maybe in a couple of years. it is not may be ready for public prime time. i have nothing is being thrown down the stairs, i have three boysin down the stairs, i have three boys in my home most of the time —— enough things. we look to the day when we will all have robots like this in our home, when will that be? well, we have been _ home, when will that be? well, we have been claiming - home, when will that be? well, we have been claiming that i home, when will that be? well, we have been claiming that will| we have been claiming that will happen next year back from the 19505 and onward. it's hard to say. i think people are finding easier, more productive solutions to the problems that robots would traditionally soul. and yes, you know, we do have smart vacuums and stuff like that, but broadly speaking i think the robot, the helpful servant that is walking around your house solving every problem you have, is more solved by something like an alexa wii u called out a name of someone and ask for what the weather will be tomorrow or something like that rather than having it rolling around —— solved. a few years unley road might be better.— might be better. absolutely -- a few years _ might be better. absolutely -- a few years down _ might be better. absolutely -- a few years down the - might be better. absolutely -- a few years down the road. i a few years down the road. ross, from polygon with his views on the latest offering from amazon, aggressive. tell me what you think. are you excited? do you think it will be a fad? get in touch. have a lovely day. they will get —— eye will see you soon. hello, there. after the heavy rain and brisk winds that affected most parts of the uk during tuesday, wednesday gives something of a chance to draw breath — certainly a drier, brighter day in prospect with some sunshine. it will still be quite breezy and there will be one or two showers but we are essentially between weather systems — this band of cloud that brought the rain on tuesday, this area of cloud waiting in the wings in the atlantic — but, in between, a zone of clearer skies thanks to this little ridge of high pressure building its way in. notice the white lines on the chart, though — the isobars still fairly tightly squeezed, so it will still be quite breezy and certainly we're getting off to a very cool start, quite a chilly start in places — three orfour degrees in one or two spots in the countryside, but we should see a good deal of sunshine through the day. now we will see some showers, too — these most plentiful across parts of northern ireland, south—west scotland, drifting through northern england, into the midlands, perhaps one or two into east anglia and the south—east, but many spots by the end of the afternoon will be dry with some sunshine. the winds easing a little by the end of the day, but temperatures just 13 to 16 degrees. and temperatures will drop quite quickly under clear skies during wednesday evening. however, the clear skies won't last. in western areas we see cloud and rain spreading in, a strengthening breeze, so by the end of the night it will be turning milder in the west — 11 for belfast, 12 for plymouth — still quite chilly to start the day across eastern areas. but for thursday, this frontal system dominates the weather — that's going to bring some outbreaks of quite heavy rain southwards and eastward, the rain quite sporadic, quite on and off in nature. very windy to start the day, especially in north—west scotland. the winds will ease a little through the day across northern areas — it should brighten up a little bit here, too. further south, those winds will stay strong and gusty, exposed spots in england and wales seeing gusts in excess of 40 or 45 mph even through into the afternoon. temperatures still struggling — 13 degrees for aberdeen, 17 in plymouth — although, actually, that's about where we should be at this time of year. now, into the weekend, low pressure dominates. weather system spinning around these areas of low pressure — that means we'll see some outbreaks of heavy rain at times, some very strong winds are possible, too, and temperatures will stay in a similar range — between 12 and 17 degrees. so with the cloud, the rain, the brisk winds and the cool conditions, it will feel very autumnal. good morning. welcome to breakfast withjon kay and sally nugent. our headlines today: army personnel begin learning to drive fuel tankers and could be delivering petrol by the end of the week. labour leader sir keir starmer prepares for the most important political speech of his career as he addresses his party conference in person for the first time. katie for the first time. price has reportedly been arrested katie price has reportedly been arrested for drink and drug driving after she is involved in a car crash in sussex. a trip to the pub could be more expensive this weekend as

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