10pm that will be a full round up of all the news, first he was newscaster. Parliament is back, which means a politics themed Thursday Night episode of newscast is back. Lovely to be together. Chris, have you had any interesting encounters now you have seen people in the real world . Yeah, i went to the lobby briefing, which is where reporters are briefed by Downing Street official spokesmen, in Downing Street for the first time in yonks. And real Life Press conferences. Which means you can kind of heckle of the Prime Minister . No, asking a supplementary and they cant mute you. More muting. If you ask a question and the politician ignores it, you obviously want to ask the question again or may be respond to it, and you almost play the game. We have said before that Downing Street would mute you on zoom, and you would unmute yourself and keep going and see how many questions you could ask. To lower the tone, my experience of seeing people in real life, many of whom i have never met in person, is that i had one person saying, you are better looking in real life and another person said, you are very short. I think you are lovely, adam. Thanks very much, and the beauty of this broadcast is that i can be any height you want in this edition of newscast. Newscast from the bbc. Hello, it is adam in the studio. And laura in the same studio, still two metres apart. Chris, where are you . I am still in the booth of news. Would you find the key so i can get out . Have you been there all summer . All summer long. I pass him snacks under the door. For our return, actually, some people havent returned back to their offices and workplaces because we have roped in former conservative Mp Nick boles, who Isjoining Us from ibiza. London i am just social distancing, that is all i am doing. I love the cactus. I know. They grow very well in camberwell. Any chance of us seeing a minor celebrity wandering past with a cocktail . Possibly. And possibly also some naked people on the balcony behind us, so we had better get this recorded. I was going to say thank you very much, because you have got viewers to stay with us who might not otherwise have been planning on it there are two good reasons for having nick with us this week. 0ne, because he is a very well informed former conservative who has been doing things didnt interesting things in the last week, but also because he has done some deep thinking about Social Care. And came up with the idea of having a dedicated social Care Levy to raise revenue so you could revolutionise how people experienced the care system, which is what the government announced this week, a health and social Care Levy that will sit on top of national insurance, and that will help put more money into the system and it will now be a cap on individuals Lifetime Ca Re costs in england and changes to the means test. Nick, you must be pleased because your idea that you propose three orfour years ago is now going to happen, probably. I am somewhat astonished. I confess, i was On The Beach and i got a text from one of. Sajid javids former special advisers saying, i am sure the first time i heard about the dedicated. Health and social Care Levy was from you, am i imagining it . And i had no idea what she was on about, and then. She told me the government had just announced it as a policy. So i have not been. Involved in the recent gestation, but it is true that i came together with Liz Kendall from the Labour Party and Norman Lamb from the Liberal Democrats in 2018 and proposed something almost i identical to what the government has suggested. So we slightly signed up to it with a heavy heart, but withl the certainty that it was the only way we were going to get this I Problem resolved. Talking of a heavy heart, borisjohnson has broken a manifesto commitment. Manifesto promises used to be solemn vows round these parts. That time passed some time ago, but shall we listen to how he broke that promise . No conservative government, mr speaker, ever wants to raise taxes and i will be honest with the house, i accept that this breaks a manifesto commitment, which is not something i do lightly. But a global pandemic was in no ones manifesto. Nick, you said people would pay more taxes if they knew it was definitely going to Social Care. But in this case, most of the money will go to the nhs to clear up the Treatment Backlog caused by covid, and that is something that has been concerning a lot of people at westminster this week. Does it concern you in ibiza . Not so much, because funnily enough, i think that makes it easier to sell. When i say people will accept paying a higher tax and Social Care, i meant for the nhs and Social Care. We all know the nhs has a status i as a Public Service in Peoples Mind different to anything else and Social Care, rightly, i needs to be viewed alongside that is another thing that needs more money. So i think the combination of the two is a powerful way of getting what is otherwise an unpalatable changei through, because everybody can see that the nhs has been faced with. Something unprecedented and now has an unprecedented backlog. It needs more money. In the short to medium term to deal with that, i and we can also see that in the medium to long term, there is this expanding problem with Social Care needs. So that is what makes it unbeatable as i a political proposal, and for alli that the Labour Opposition voted against it and is claiming they were come up with some wealth tax, the only question that really matters is, will they get rid of it if they. Get into power . And of course they wont. Nick, you talked about it being almost unbeatable, but he said being almost unbeatable, but you said it wasnt perfect. What are its strengths and weaknesses in its current incarnation . Well, something is worth pointing out which is that Liz Kendall, who showed the greatest courage signing up to this in 2018, she knew full well that there was political pain to come if it ever went anywhere. She knew you had to be extending national insurance payments to the earnings of pensioners, so those increasingly many pensioners who work after retirement age, they currently dont pay national insurance, and we knew they would have to pay this. Secondly, we need to find a way of gettingl other sources of income that wealthier pensioners have, and that again is secured through the levy. Being charged on Dividend Income as well. That just about sweetens the pill enough it doesnt, but nobodyl is pretending that it is a perfectly progressive picture. One would want to be taking more from those people who have benefited from House Price gains and everything else. If you added those elements, that might be progressive enough. How could you recoup a bit of extra money from the value of peoples homes . Well, what one learnsl after a long time trying and often failing in politics with Policy Ideas is that the thin end of the wedge is the most powerful force in human life. And this is the thin end of the wedge. | any future government i will now be able to build on this. Some of them will add an extra higher rate for higher earners. Other governments might add a higher rate for people over the age of 40. There are all sorts of ways you can deal with this. Also, dont forget that a huge part of the cost of Social Care is still going to be met from general taxation, and i it is always open for a government. To make the general Taxation System more progressive, for instance by introducing a wealth tax. I but you needed something that people understood. I and when you talk to constituents, lots of people who come to your surgery still say, i paid All My Life and then i expect these services. And this idea of the stampl is something different from | normal taxation is still a powerfulj one, and i think this new levy that will appear in peoples payslips |will re establish the idea that| there are some things that you are paying for directlyl through your wage packet, and i think that has a lot of basic support in Peoples Minds, | that they work in order to secure some security from the state. But the flip side of that for lots of people in your party, nick, is that it entrenches the sort of special status of the nhs and somehow puts it kind of beyond reproach. You cant say anything mean about it, you cant have a proper debate about it and it isjust going to keep gobbling up. It is now more than 40 of national income. And for people in your party who traditionally like to think of themselves as low tax conservatives, that is something that is quite uncomfortable. It is 40 of government spending. Sorry what do you make of that . Also, you knew borisjohnson well. You then rather changed your opinion of him, you are no fan, it is fair to say. Why do you think he has done this . Because he is a shameless opportunist i think it is the most classic bit of Boris Opportunism and i take my hat off to him. | we are very different people with very different views, i and he is vastly more successful than i have been. But i have to take my hat off to him on this one. I it is like disraeli. He saw an opportunity and He Hasjust grabbed it. I promise you, he never thought about a hypothecated tax in his life before. L he probably thought it was some battle in greece. But now he has done it and it will be a significant move. The point about the Tory Party being uncomfortable well, that is music to my ears. I spent most of my time in the Tory Party trying to make tories uncomfortable and a lot of My Timel since leaving it trying to make them even more uncomfortable. I think what boris has seen is that it is an. Seen is that it is unopposable for his party. They all looked like l they had swallowed a wasp when they were trooping through the lobbies, but they knew there was no way they could. Come out against it, because the nhs and covid and The Catch Up and the fact that so many of their. Constituents are facing these terrible Social Care bills made it unopposable. And boris, frankly, as i say, he is an. Opportunist. He wants to win and he wants to be on top and he wants to be popular and he sees this as a great way of doing those things. I wonder how you reflect more broadly on the conservative party in the round where it is now, its outlook and priorities. It is a party you fell out of love with, led by a man who you were close to and also fell out of love with. Yeah. Well, i try not to think| about it too much as it would drive me mad. It is a confusing picture because on Economic Policy and public. Provision, the party Under Borisjohnson Has moved quite drastically in the direction i would have wanted to take it. My reservations about some i of the austerity measures we took when i was in government. In the coalition, also some of the positions taken by Theresa May and the instinct, as you put it, i of the entire party, which is to resist. Commitments by the state to extend the support into peoples lives. All of that, i really love. And i always knew boris was going to do that. Because he has always loved that stuff too. I the trouble is, what i dont like is the Culture Wars and| the English Nationalism and the sort of lack of Principle And Lack of respect for institutions i and the riding roughshod. That is why i cant be part of it, but who cares whether i am part of it or not . The question is, is this a good move . And the truth is, it is i a good and brave move. The person i really think we mustnt forget for bravery, because she is having a tough time through| this, is Liz Kendall, who came out as a Labour Mp of some standing and put her name to this and frankly, that is what has made |this so powerful, the fact that you | were able to get large numbers. Of mps from all parties saying that this needed to happen and it might not be perfect, but it was a step forward. That is what has unlocked this a few years later as something that borisjohnson could do. Im sure Liz Kendall will be sat at her laptop with a glass of wine because that is what she did when she was on this programme. Borisjohnson has had the benefit of, at least in this moment, this new giving the Labour Party into this position where they find themselves voting against more money going to the Health Service because they dont like the principle of how this is to be paid for. But, you know, it is a nifty bit of politicking. He will never hear the end of that. There is somebody naked behind you chuckles i couldnt resist. I also had some Ice Cubes when you were talking. What are you having . I really cannot stand campari. I made a Peach Gin and tonic which i thought was tropical enough. Sounds lovely. Thanks very much for your pearls of wisdom. Take care. Interesting when you see someone who has been out of Front Line politics for a while but can become a bit of a strategist, has a little bit still in the game, knows the policies. He covered that story in 2018. Nick, Norman Lamb, and Liz Kendall, we did an interview with all three of them. Its the only time ive done an interview with three people at the same time. They explained how they thought it would give force to this idea, the fact they would come together, talked about that idea of visibility, and if people saw it on their payslip they would understand it and would be up for paying more. Here we are, three years later, even though we didnt read out a quote from borisjohnson. An all consuming ego and utterly without conscious, but there we go. I said we would have a look at this weeks events within a more scientific way. We are going to do that because we have a pollster in the cupboard. It is ben from Ipsos Mori poll. Good evening. Have you been looking at the social Care Stuff this week in terms of how it has gone down with the public . What you can see isj that before this was announced, as we heard, the number one thing when you ask. The british public what should have more money spent on it was the nhs. Social care was there as well. Two out of three people saying they supported increasing, would pay more tax and national. Insurance, to pay for it. Since it has come out there has been a mixed reaction. Some of that is because the Labour Party voted against it. If you are a die hard labourvoter, and remember whoever leads the Labour Party the Labour Party is guaranteedl to get three out of ten voters voting for it, some people are therefore negative because it is done by the conservatives. 0verall, to be honest, the public wanted more money spent on the nhs. They want more money. Spent on Public Services. Theyve accepted taxes will have to go up. Generally, a hypothecated tax, | even though national insurance is a bit of a con because the hypothecation doesnt really happen, i but we will forget that for now, i national insurance is much more attractive to most people, i including conservative voter, than in income tax rise. I think borisjohnson is probably going to get away with it. He already had a ten Percentage Lead in the polls. We will see if that changes. Generally people have said for years we need to spend money on things, particularly these things, and now we are. I i wonder if there is an element of the discrepancy between the before and after an Peoples Reaction is people being happy in theory to pay more tax and perhaps a little less happy when they realise it becomes a reality. Do you think people would have accepted it if people said itll be full Social Care, this tax rise, or was it the branding of it, sticking the nhs on the end of it which made it politically possible, because lots of conservatives think that . Thats interesting. We did do a poll on it both ways. There was one percentage slightly more if it was branded just for the nhs. Not much more if it. Was branded for Social Care. Interesting. People know there is a problem with Social Care. When people visualise this, this is about granny, their relatives. Ultimately, for people my age, i am 56, youi know, we might actually think about how this may affect some of us, as well. There is a large amount of people moving through the population, the baby boomers born | between 45 and 65, they arent all| using it yet, but many are contemplating possibly using it. And will have had their parents just gone through it in many cases. It doesnt seem to matter which way its done. The Hypothecation Aspect is the thing that is the slam dunk, you know. And i think labour made a mistake opposing it, despite it falls more into younger people paying, and an elderly person with lots of housing that they rent out not contributing. It is broadly progressive, the more you and you i the more you earn and you will pay more. Here is Sir Keir Starmer making what you just called a mistake on wednesday. Working people will pay higher tax. Those in need will lose their homes to pay for care, and he cant even say if the Nhs Backlog will be cleared. Well, he gesticulates, but they are all breaking their Manifesto Promises and putting up taxes on their working constituents for this . You were suggesting that borisjohnson put himself in the middle of the political road not leaving much space for Sir Keir Starmer. Is there any evidence in the polls relating to this news with regards to Peoples Reaction to where labour are . No signs that labour have suddenly had a fillip from this. The challenge for Sir Keir Starmer is that his own personal political gravity seems to keep tugging at him. His latest ratings in the poll we just put out today are the lowest theyve been yet, even amongst labour supporters. He has been dealt. A tough set of cards, with the pandemic, etc, but political gravity is there. Only in recent decades only one person has i ever come back and become prime L Minister from where Sir Keir Starmer is now, and thats david cameron, but he had a helpful change of leader on the opposite benches. How do his figures compare with, say, jeremy from Pole To pole, you have a long experience in looking at these things, the politicians are just back after the summer break. There has been an absolutely bizarre, extraordinary stressful 18 months or so with the pandemic after the sort of political trauma for people on both sides of brexit. How would you analyse the landscape . Looking at the bigger picture, given the government has a large majority. Scotland remains this terra i incognito for a lot of english political parties, and especially for labour. The Fact Scotland has gone and therefore labour. I and i see no signs of labour taking back scotland. Labourjust used to weigh the votes rather than count them back in the day. Because of that, theyd have to break england, and there are signs that in southern England Labour might have a bit of a chance. 0verall, with the sort of majority the pm has, and the size of the swing labour need, and the relative unpopularity of their leader, and perceived competence on things like the economy. We havent talked about Rishi Sunak so far, the i most popular person in british politics, i still has more people who say they like him then dislike him in politics. J anybody has more people who like then then dislike them is amazing. Admittedly it is starting l to wear off with furlough. The next election is for the conservatives to i lose. Lots for us to talk about in the next few weeks. Itll be a very busy autumn. Tough budget coming. Spending review. And all of the spending on health gives the impression Rishi Sunak� s Cheque Book is enormous, but that largesse begins and ends at the department of health. Not much money for prisons. Not much money floating around. Absolutely. The other departments are suffering. Things like local government. You can cut things, you cut them, and at some point it flips. And they cut you and then you have a problem. That was an amazing tour of what is happening. Shame i cannot see you guys, but next time. I one thing that didnt happen which everybody was preparing for was a reshuffle of the cabinet. Yes, and it might still happen next week allegedly. All week ive been thinking, cynical as i am, was this being dangled in front of ministers to keep them in line for something like breaking a manifesto promise, and might they feel like they were more in line if they thought about losing theirjob. Call me a cynic. But somebody this morning said the reshuffle is all prepared and has been prepared and is sitting waiting to go and has been for some time and it may yet happen next week. But who knows . Simon hart, he was sharing yes Prime Minister clips, a scene about a nervous Minister Waiting by the phone. One of his colleagues replied and said, im going to up on a phone where a number doesnt show up just to speak to you. Because the public were deprived of the spectacle of the reshuffle people hoped for, we will carry one out right now on this episode. Me and laura sit in one studio and have done for over a year now. Tonight, we are going to stage a reshuffle. Adam has put on his facemask. He has picked up one of his phones. Leaving the studio. Chris is on the studio. Hes put his mask on, navy with white i believe. He is now on the loose in the Bbc Westminster Newsroom studio. Adam fleming is somewhere, i dont know where, in the bbc westminster building. He has just sat down and take in his mask off, and here is chris thank goodness, i was nearly out of words for the first time in my life. Hello how nice to see you. That must be me getting a promotion in this reshuffle. Ive just thrown the key in the thames. After that sophisticated ending to our Television Programme and podcast, ithink that is certainly enough from me, dont know about you two . We will call it a day, i think. Goodbye. Good evening. With low pressure sitting across the uk today, it has been a showery picture. There have been sunny spells between the showers as we saw in suffolk earlier in the day, but weve also seen a lot of lively showers through the second half of the afternoon across the eastern half of england. The weekend, though, will bring fewer showers for many of us with some sunny spells, but itll feel fresher. And the reason . The low pressure thats been bringing those Showers Yesterday and today thats sitting across us is moving out into the north sea, so bringing wet and windy weather to scandinavia. Weve still got the remnants of that Weather Front sitting in the north, but the other change i talked about is the wind direction. So, as we go around to the north and the northwest, its a fresher feel. You can see the heat gradually ebbing away through the day on saturday. So, still a few thunderstorms around this Evening Northeast parts of england, lincolnshire, east anglia, possibly one or two in Northern Ireland but they fade away as we go through the night. The wet areas really dominated by the area of low pressure and its trailing Weather Front across north scotland. Notjust Tonight But Tomorrow as well, we could see some very significant Rainfall Totals building up here. Its one to watch. For most of us as showers fade away, its misty and grey and quite warm again. We havent lost that humidity yet. Its quite a warm start to the day, but also quite grey and misty, particularly over the hills in North And West areas, but there could be some fog just about anywhere. It does take a little longer to kick in this time of year. Once it does so, some brighter spells coming through and very few showers for england and wales. Still a scattering for Northern Ireland, but not as many as today. South and Eastern Scotland faring quite well with some drier weather, but it is really looking quite wet across northern scotland. Temperatures are, as i say, starting to drop away, a fresher feel and a generally quite fairly brisk breeze blowing. That Weather Front weekends as it heads south on sunday, but there is the fly in the ointment this area of low pressure and how far north and east it will spread its influence, spread its rains by the time we get to sunday. Cloudier for the eastern side of England And Scotland on that weakening Weather Front, but drier further north and brighter. Itll be a little bit fresher. Fewer showers for Northern Ireland, we feel, and further east across england as well, some drier weather. And it could be that that Weather Front gets stuck across western areas, so even by monday, most of the rain is in the west. As i say, theres quite a lot of uncertainty surrounding that next area of low pressure at this stage. So, as ever, theres more on the website, including the warnings, and well keep you up to date. Tonight at ten the head of m15 warns the Talibans Takeover in afghanistan may have emboldened extremists planning attacks in the uk. The warning comes on the eve of the 20th Anniversary of the 9 11 attacks as the us prepares to remember almost 3,000 people who died. Whether its 9 11, whether its january 13th, whether its july 7th, i miss my dad and that will never change. Also on the programme tonight. Lawyers for the woman whos accused Prince Andrew of Sexual Abuse claim theyve successfully served him with legal papers