Transcripts For BBCNEWS World Business Report 20240710

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We start in the us where higher Borrowing Costs are on the way but not just yet. The federal reserve has brought forward its timeline for raising Interest Rates from close to zero, as the economy continues to recover and inflation creeps up. Markets didnt like it more on that in a moment but first heres Michelle Fleury who has been listening to what fed Chairjerome Powell had to say. AS Predicted the federal reserve left its key Interest Rates unchanged near zero. But rates unchanged near zero. But rates could go up as soon as 2023. Less than the latest economic projections from the bank. This was a stark change from the spring when fed officials did rates would stay near zero for that at least the next two years. The Change Of Heart is a good sign that it believes the economy is healing. The Central Bank is forecasting growth of 7 in 2021, a from 6. 5 in march. But with faster growth, down also expects higher inflation, upping its forecast of 3. 4 for the last few months of this year. That is well above the target of the fed of 2 . While they stuck to its belief that this burst of higher prices will pass, jerome powell, the federal Reserve Chair acknowledged the risk. figs federal Reserve Chair acknowledged the risk. As the reapening acknowledged the risk. As the reopening continues, acknowledged the risk. As the reopening continues, shifts i acknowledged the risk. As the reopening continues, shifts in | reopening continues, shifts in demand can be large and rapid and bottlenecks, hiring difficulties and other constraints could continue to limit how quickly supply can adjust, raising the possibility that inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect. For now the fed persistent than we expect. For now the fed are persistent than we expect. For now the fed are standing part. It will continue with its 120 Billion a Month Bond Buying program which has helped keep down Borrowing Costs. As for the labour market, Mr Powell said it was on a strong trajectory. Even if the fed is about to dial back supported put in place during the pandemic, americas Central Bank is still dumb are clearly feeling much better about the economy that has in the past. Lets see how asian markets are reacting to that. The market is a three week load, the Hang Seng is up sharp we. This is all in reaction to what the fed had to say. The american markets, there was quite a serious drop off initially as the fed was beginning its Press Conference but you can see markets close not that much lower. There was a bit of a recovery there. This is asjerome powell said with projections we need to take them with a big grain of salt. He further comment into calm markets. Priorto he further comment into calm markets. Prior to that, the dow was down by over 200 points, you can see closing down 260 points lower. The nasdaq was down over 1 and the S P down over 1 but you can see both of those markets recovering. Lets go to miami, florida and talk to Chris Campbell chief strategist at the risk consultants kroll. Hes a former Assistant Secretary at the Us Treasury covering financial institutions. Good institutions. To have you on the program. Good to have you on the program. So what do you make of how the fed is handling this very tricky situation they are in at the moment . Very tricky situation they are in at the moment . Look, there is aood in at the moment . Look, there is good news in at the moment . Look, there is good news and in at the moment . Look, there is good news and bad in at the moment . Look, there is good news and Bad News. I is good news and Bad News. 0bviously is good news and Bad News. Obviously the economy is reopening and the economy is heading up which is good news for the us and of course Around The World and the markets. The Bad News of courses inflation. Here at kroll we have been forecasting the inflationary period we are in is non transitory. It is something thatis transitory. It is something that is here to stay which looks like is going to be the reality unfortunately. It leaves the fed with some very difficult decisions to make. I think, and we are suggesting perhaps it is time for them to take their foot off the gas a bit on the Bond Buying programs. I believe, given my time in the us government at treasury and other places in the us government, i think it is really hard for the fed to at least begin to raise rates in the near term because of the enormous challenges it would impose on the public Debt Market in the united states. But, look, Ithink Market in the united states. But, look, i think again, market in the united states. But, look, ithink again, it market in the united states. But, look, i think again, it is good news and Bad News but i do believe the fed is going to have to start tapering off some of the Bond Buying programs, otherwise the economy is going To Overheat. Otherwise the economy is going To Overheat To Overheat. How soon do you think they To Overheat. How soon do you think they might To Overheat. How soon do you think they might decide To Overheat. How soon do you think they might decide to To Overheat. How soon do you think they might decide to do| think they might decide to do that . I rememberafter think they might decide to do that . I remember after the 2008 financial crisis when even started to talk about tapering, there was a tampering tension within financial markets and such a huge reaction that. I think it is going to be in the near term. Think it is going to be in the nearterm. I think it is going to be in the near term. I think we are looking at 04 or 01 next year perhaps. That is going to have to be and will be adjusted in my opinion prior to raising the rates. ~ ,. , my opinion prior to raising the rates. ~ ,. ,. , rates. When it comes to raising rates, rates. When it comes to raising rates. The rates. When it comes to raising rates, the open rates. When it comes to raising rates, the Open Market rates. When it comes to raising rates, the Open Market was rates, the Open Market was quite split, there were seven voting in favour for rates going up sooner rather than later. What are your thoughts on when they might start to increase the cost of borrowing . Look, i think theyre going to do everything they can to avoid it. It will probably be the last arrow they pull out of the quiver but i think there is no other choice but to push those arrows out of the quiver. I think the market iS Probably right, 2023 or maybe 2024. There is no question that if inflation stays the way it is and perhaps as we are seeing it now, the biden administration calling for a very large Tax Increase at The End of this year, which could further put inflationary pressure on our markets, the fed is going to have their hands tied and are going to have to raise rates, again which will be a real challenge given the way that the us budgets and they budget for their government budgets, the Government Servicing on debt is going to quickly eclipse all of our Discretionary Spending if the fed raises rateS Precipitously. That is why i believe they will do everything they can to avoid raising rates, using all other tools in their arsenal prior to doing that. Tools in their arsenal prior to doing that doing that. 0k, chris thank ou. Doing that. 0k, chris thank you we doing that. 0k, chris thank you. We appreciate doing that. 0k, chris thank you. We appreciate your i you. We appreciate your analysis. Chris campbell joining us live from miami, florida. Lets turn to the Travel Industry now because ryanair and the owner of three airports in england are preparing to sue the Uk Government over its management of covid restrictions on international travel. They are Filing Papers with the High Court later today seeking a Judicial Review into the � transparency� of the system, which divides destinations into green, amber or red. They say its undermining Consumer Confidence and making it impossible for the Travel Industry to plan for its recovery. Susannah streeter is senior Investment Analyst at hargreaves lansdown. Nice to see you, susanna. Michael 0leary is ready for a fight over this. Talk us through what is happening. It certainly is, has already been extremely vociferous about these Travel Restrictions under these Travel Restrictions under the traffic light system, which he says really are too onerous. And he and the manchester Airports Group are arguing for Airports Group are arguing for a much less opaque system, a much clearer system because they say it is extremely confusing. It is without a doubt that the pandemic has really been the most turbulent time for ryanair in its entire history. Delta an annual loss of almost 1 billion. Even though its Share Price has recovered, certainly Business Hasnt yet. What they want to see is more clarity over how these lists are drawn up, why do people going to some destinations have two quarantine for 14 days. I do have some have to quarantine but can be freed, as it were after a test of five days . Why do others who are going to green destinations, why can they still go there . What are they still go there . What are the rules . What kind of data is the rules . What kind of data is the government using two puts different destinations on different destinations on different lists . At the moment they say it is not clear at all and they need a lot more clarity to try and plan for some kind of recovery. find some kind of recovery. And takin some kind of recovery. And taking into some kind of recovery. And taking into the some kind of recovery. And taking into the high some kind of recovery. And taking into the High Court a Judicial Review will be very interesting to see how thiS Pans out. I do understand the frustration within the Travel Industry and consumers are being put off because its not just the doubt the traffic light system, it is about all of the detail before they arrive somewhere, the test, the forms they have to fill in, it is so onerous and confusing . Absolutely. Ryanair certainly isnt the only want to stress all of this. Although there appears to be real pent up demand among consumers, that seems to have dissipated a little. People are giving up and saying im just going to stay here in the uk or in their own individual places of residence. And not venture abroad, and this will really set back the airline industrys recovery. And remember, is not just the airlines but airline operators, once bustling Departure And Arrival halls are deserted, that is why Manchester Airport Group is joining in this action because it iS Partly owned by regional authorities in the North West of england. They are really reliant on the revenues, from Car Parks and all the other kinds of Discretionary Spending and that really has been pretty much at zero because travel has fallen off a cliff and they really need to see recovery, and want clarity. Really need to see recovery, and want clarity. 0k, Susanna Street on and want clarity. 0k, Susanna Street up from and want clarity. 0k, Susanna Street up from Hargreaves I Street up from hargreaves lansdowne. Streeter. More than 11 Million people here in the uk were furloughed from theirjobs during the pandemic. But with many now returning or looking forward to getting back to work The End of the Furlough Scheme could be very tough for older workers, according to new research. It found the Over 65s were 40 more likely to be furloughed than those in their 40s. And it warns that older workers have found it much harder to return to work after a period of unemployment. Dr Emily Andrews is senior Evidence Manager at the centre for ageing better a charitable foundation which funded the research. Do you tell us more about your findings and how the older generations are being impact. So the impacts of thiS Pandemic have essentially been U Shaped in terms of the impact of employment with the youngest and oldest workers hardest hit. We know is that at The End of last Year Redundancy rates have been highest amongst 50 plus aged workers. What todays research highlights is that those workers in Their 50s And 60s who do fall out of work and become unemployed are much less likely to return to work. They are much greater risk of long Term Unemployment and so risk of falling out of the workforce altogether. It is a really big problem for individuals who may still be a long way away from their state pension age, which is rising, and is really bad for the economy. It and is really bad for the economy and is really bad for the econom. ,. ,. , economy. It is the ageold difficulties, economy. It is the ageold difficulties, isnt economy. It is the ageold difficulties, isnt it economy. It is the ageold difficulties, isnt it that i difficulties, isnt it that somebody in their is likely to be more skilled, therefore be paid more, it is higher wages, there are all these issues that employers think about in this situation and lets not forget businesses have been through an incredibly tough year and a half. They having to look at their budgets, arent they . Yes. And what i would say to employers is that the research, previous research is really clear that when you have older workers in your organisation and bring in olderand workers in your organisation and bring in older and younger workers together in a multigenerational team, innovation has gone up, productivity improves, ultimately, results are better. So having older workers being friendly towards older workers and having age friendly policies like flexible working which todays research pulled out as being really important, are good for business and the bottom line. 50 are good for business and the bottom line. Bottom line. So what are the main challenges bottom line. So what are the main challenges facing i bottom line. So what are the main challenges facing older| main challenges facing older jobseekers . 50 main challenges facing older jobseekers . Main challenges facing older jobseekers . So i pick up on a few things jobseekers . So i pick up on a few things and jobseekers . So i pick up on a few things and the jobseekers . So i pick up on a few things and the first I Jobseekers . So i pick up on a few things and the first is I Jobseekers . So i pick up on a few things and the first is the quality of support they have historically received. So the Work Program which was the governments back to Work Support for the long term unemployed after the 2008 recession just did not work for this group. They received far worse outcomes than people who are younger so there is definitely something about improving government support, making sure it is effective and that it meets their needs and they are actually receiving a good level of support. There is definitely also something around having the right kinds ofjobs available stop the Research Today show that I6 of people who are in Their 50s And 60s who are working want to work fewer hours, whether that is because of a Care And Responsibility which iS Particularly prevalent at this age or a Health Need or another reason. Having access to good quality flexible work is really important. And there and there are other individual reasons as well. Another thing from this research is more than two thirds of people in Their 50s And 60s have been in the samejob for More 50s And 60s have been in the same job for more than five years in the longer you have beenin years in the longer you have been in the same job, the longer its been since we have experienced job searching so they lose confidence and some skills. �. , skills. Alright, many challenges skills. Alright, many challenges for i skills. Alright, many| challenges for doctor skills. Alright, many i challenges for doctor Emily Andrews. Many challenges for them. Thank you, doctor. Lets talk about the Tokyo 0lympics because japanS Public Broadcaster Nhk says the government has decided to allow spectators at the games and theyll make an official announcement when they meet with the ioc. Lets go live to our Asia Business Hub and join mariko 0i. Mariko, this is about money . Is it really about money . That is somewhat is it really about money . That is somewhat of is it really about money . That is somewhat of speculation i is it really about money . Trisgt is somewhat of speculation and its true the japanese public wont be too pleased about this, if the government really decides to allow spectators at the games because as we have been reporting, an overwhelming majority of the japanese public want the event to be either cancelled or postponed, and now people are starting to accept the fact that the event will likely go ahead, regardless of their opinions, but still, there are those who have reluctantly starting the band go ahead would be expecting that there would be no spectators in order to prevent it being a super Spreader Event and doctors have been warning about this as well but it appears the japanese government has decided to allow up to 10,000 people, and as you said money may have played a role because the Organising Committee would have needed a public bailout of about 800 Million if the games were to be held Behind Closed Doors and recent budgets show the organisers still assume full stadiums and with no overseas visitors, there would be sales of the sales would be one of the few remaining revenues, and the few remaining revenues, and the Prime Minister is expected today whether to live the State Of Emergency in the capital and other major cities in a couple of days, so we will see if that official announcement comes but i am seeing quite a lot of Anger And Reaction on social media. ,. ,. , ~ i. Anger and reaction on social media. ,. ,. ~. , media. For now, thank you. You are with bbc media. For now, thank you. You are with bbc news. Media. For now, thank you. You are with bbc news. Still media. For now, thank you. You are with bbc news. Still to i are with bbc news. Still to come, after the races, but will the limited spectator numberS Proved to be too big of a financial handicap for royal ascot . There was a bomb in the city centre. A Code Word known to be one used by the ira was given. Army bomb experts were examining a Suspect Van when there was a huge explosion. The South African Parliament has destroyed the foundation of apartheid by abolishing the Population Registration Act which, for 40 years, forcibly classified each citizen according to race. Just a day old, and the Royal Baby is tonight sleeping in his cot at home. Early this evening, the new prince was taken by his Mother And Father to their apartments in kensington palace. GermanyS Parliament, i the bundestag, has voted by a narrow majority to move the seat of government from bonn to berlin. Berliners celebrated into i the night, but the decision was greeted with shock in bonn. The real focus of Attention Today was valentina tereshkova, The Worlds first woman cosmonaut. What do you think of the russian woman in space . I think its a wonderful achievement and i think we might be able to persuade the wife it would be a good idea if i could to get her to go up there for a little while. This is bbc world news. The latest Headlines China launches a Spacecraft Carrying three astronauts in a Landmark Step towards establishing beijing as a major space power. The mission to construct the countrys own space station. Police in Hong Kong say 500 officers took part in a Dawn Raid to arrest five employees from the pro Democracy Apple daily newspaper. To the United Arab Emirates now, where the � working from Home Revolution is being seen as a business opportunity. Its now offering remote Work Visas, hoping to attract people who dont have to go back to the office to work from there instead. Will the lure of sun, Sand And Skype attract a new wave of expats to the uae . The bbc� s Sameer Hashmi reports from dubai. Giving finishing touches to his new workplace, after spending years in singapore, marco is ready to start work from his New Home. Ready to start work from his New Home New Home. Welcome to our session New Home. Welcome to our session as New Home. Welcome to our session. As a New Home. Welcome to our session. As a corporate i New Home. Welcome to our i session. As a corporate trainer his ob session. As a corporate trainer his job involved session. As a corporate trainer his job involved a session. As a corporate trainer his job involved a lot session. As a corporate trainer his job involved a lot of his job involved a lot of travelling to conduct workshops but since last year he has been doing them virtually, so when dubai started rolling out remote Work Visas, he decided to relocate. It remote Work Visas, he decided to relocote to relocate. It is uniquely laced to relocate. It is uniquely placed in to relocate. It is uniquely placed in the to relocate. It is uniquely placed in the globe i to relocate. It is uniquely placed in the globe to i to relocate. It is uniquely i placed in the globe to allow me to work across different Time Zones and fly to whatever i need to fly and whenever i am allowed to fly. Allowed to fly. 2000 people have applied allowed to fly. 2000 people have applied for allowed to fly. 2000 people have applied for the allowed to fly. 2000 people have applied for the remotej have applied for the remote Work Visas since it was launched by dubai. The scheme allowS People to live in the uae for one year, including those that work for companies that dont have a base year, however, the programme has entry barriers, like applicants need to be earning 5,000 per month after tax. More than 20 countries have launched similar Visa Programmes but it is believed that the countrys glitzy appeal and high Vaccination Rate gives it an edge. Last year Tens Of Thousands of foreign workers left the country after they lost theirjobs due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. This had a significant impact on the countrys economy, especially dubai, which relies heavily on expats, tourism and travel. Since then local authorities have lodged various new Visa Programmes including the remote Working Visa to attract foreigners back to the country. Businesses are also looking at this as a long term opportunity. This Aunt Bruno and his Real Estate partners are building these apartments across dubai, designed specifically for people who are planning to move here to work remotely. That will include a separate Working Area and other facilities required to work from home. Some firmS Planning to move workers to dubai have signed up to these apartments hoping to save on office costs. If you are looking at Silicone Valley workers who have these huge campuses, the campus has all kinds of meal programmes, Daycare Programmes and Pet Care programmes, so what is going to help the company save those costs . They will come here. Marco feels lucky to be able to shift to another city. Many international firms are reluctant to deal with the paperwork necessary when sending their workers overseas. For many freelancers, the new Dubai Visas can make Working From Home are very different experience. Now we are off to the races. The five day royal Ascot Meeting got under way on tuesday, with its usual blend of Horse Racing and high fashion. Its normally one of europes busiest meetings, with up to 70,000 people attending on some days, including of course the queen. Last year there were no crowds at all, as the races had to be run Behind Closed Doors because of the pandemic. This year ascot� s being allowed up to 12,000 spectators a day aS Part of the governmentS Pilot scheme to reintroduce live sporting events. The queen has opted not to attend this year. So is this enough to rebuild its battered finances . Felicity barnard is commercial director of ascot racecourse. Good morning. First of all, what changes have you made to the event this year . The event this year . Yes, quite a view, the event this year . Yes, quite a view. It the event this year . Yes, quite a view, it will the event this year . Yes, quite a view, it will look the event this year . Yes, quite a view, it will look a the event this year . Yes, quite a view, it will look a little i a view, it will look a little bit different, the last few days, the atmosphere has been fantastic, it is a smaller royal ascot, so this year we are using many of the rules and regulations from the Events Research Programme to make the event as safe aS Possible for most journalists and event as safe aS Possible for mostjournalists and our horse trainers thatjoin us, and that involves a very robust Ticking Infrastructure ticketing infrastructure, so all the guests had to complete a form to come on site, and was a lot of testing, that was a requirement for attending the site and when you are onside, the difference for our event as opposed to some other events is the current Social Distancing guidelines dont apply, so there are no masks, and no Social Distancing, which makes for a very interesting event considering The World we have been living in recently, it sometimes feels a little odd, and our staff are required to adhere to those regulations but our race goers arent so the government can see and test the impact of that on such a large scale event. It impact of that on such a large scale event. Scale event. It is all about the experience, scale event. It is all about the experience, ascot, i scale event. It is all about i the experience, ascot, about the experience, ascot, about the outfits, glamour, the queen being there as well as other royals, so how can you replicate that . You mentioned they have not got to wear masks, they dont have to social distance but there are a lot fewer people there this year, it is not the same . Absolutely, it does feel very different, fabulous weather we have had over the past couple of days, but today may be slightly different. It does certainly feel like a summer party. We have lots of installations as you would expect from royal ascot, lots of floral installations, things were our guests to enjoy, does feel very different, but. Quickly, how has this impacted your overall and ascot . At The End of the day, it is the money coming in the accounts. Undoubtedly it has affected, not only the meeting but throughout the year there has been limited raising fast, so our businesS Plan has been set back three to four years, so it absolutely has affected us, but have race goers back as you can imagine, that does make a big difference to the bottom line, so we are seeing some revenue, so we are seeing some revenue, our so we are seeing some revenue, our partners and sponsors are happy and a broadcast partners are happy, so it is by no means set, and of course we are feeling losses like so many. We have to ended there, but thank you for getting up so early to talk to us about how things are going. I talk to us about how things are anoin. ,. , talk to us about how things are anoin. , hello there. Over the next few days, bouts of thunderstorms will be affecting parts of england, bringing a risk of some localised flooding. Now, wednesday was another very hot day in the capital. 29 degrees celsius, that was the highest temperature recorded in the whole of the uk. It was also very muggy. But we had some thunderstorms that started to break out as well across northern france, and these have been tracking across the English Channel into southern and eastern areas of england. Really anywhere from around about dorset, Somerset North eastwards at risk of a storm overnight, but really its a more general area of rain with some thunderstorms mixed in. Thats kind of what well have over the next few hours. Now, across the North West, it should become largely dry here. A fresh night, ten degrees, comfortable for sleeping, but very muggy in eastern england. 18 degrees as we start the day on thursday. Now, through thursday, a wet start, i think, across the South East of england, east anglia, a good part of the midlands as well, with outbreaks of rain. Still a risk of a few thunderstorms mixed in. Most of that rain will clear off into the North Sea with the weather becoming Drier And Brighterfrom the South East, but still with a lot of cloud around. Best of the sunshine, scotland, Northern Ireland and North West fringes of both england and waleS Probably having some bright and reasonably fresh weather as well. But it will still be very humid in the east. Thursday night, well, it should become dry at least for a time before the next batch of storms begin to make inroads from the south. And then through friday, again, were looking at another pulse of thundery Rain Kind of affecting the same sort of areas really. Southern england, the midlands, east anglia, Parts Of Lincolnshire and yorkshire. And within this area of rain, there will be some hefty downpours bringing a risk of some localised flooding. Still relatively fresh weather across the North West, with some bright or sunny spells coming through. Now, friday night, the rain slowly pushes its way northwards and eastwards with the thunderstorms as well. Saturday does look a little bit drier generally. Therell be a few bright or sunny spells around, perhaps one or two showers here and there as well. And then through saturday night, more storms work up from europe. But this time, the rains going to be more widespread, and it will push right across into Northern Ireland and scotland as well, still with the risk of some thunderstorms embedded in that area of rain. So, all in all, very unsettled for the next few days. The biggest storms capable of bringing a lot of rain in a short space of time, which could bring the risk of some localised flooding. Thats your latest weather. Good morning, welcome to breakfast with Charlie Stayt and naga munchetty. 0ur Headlines Today More To Come Dominic Cummings warns hell continue his attacks on the governments handling of the pandemic, after revealing details of private messages from the Prime Minister. It comes as mps give the green light to extending covid restrictions until the i9thjuly, despite more than 50 conservatives voting against the move after the life of footballer Christian Eriksen was saved with the use of a defibrillator, there are calls for the devices to be made more readily available in the uk. Tempting

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