hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are sonia sodha, chief leader writer at the observer and tom newton dunn, chief political commentator with times radio. welcome back to you both. so let's start with some of the pages we already have. the metro writes that the eu has threatened to take life—saving covid jabs bound for britain — after blaming the uk for what it calls the "continent's creaking vaccination rollout". the financial times also leads on the vaccine roll—out, writing that the nhs�*s targets are in peril after a "significant reduction" in supplies. the telegraph adds that vaccine shortages mean that no more first appointments for covid jabs will be booked in april as supplies arriving in britain continue to be disrupted. the times adds that a fall in provision from astrazeneca is understood to be the reason why very few people will receive their first doses next month. the guardian writes that people under 50 may have to wait up to a month longer than planned for their covid vaccination. the express also reports that the eu is threatening to seize life—saving vaccines heading to britain. the mirror says police will re—interview other people who attended the party where stuart lubbock died 20 years ago. the daily mail writes that asylum seekers who cross the channel illegally to reach britain face being sent to another country. the paper reports that the home secretary is set to take a tougher stance on unauthorised migration. soa number of so a number of different stories, but most of the papers focusing on the situations with vaccines with two different stories, two different situations going forward. let's start with the daily express. tom, let's start with you, the daily express doesn't mince its words when it comes to the situation with that you. this is the european commission saying that it will withhold vaccine exports to countries that don't supply them the other way. correct. this is proof that you will never let go, says the daily express, obviously linking it to brexit, some kind of retribution by that you to punish britain for leaving. the eu commissioner gave no indication that it had to do with brexit, and all to do with the eu to fail to rental out its vaccine rug that was nearly as successful as britain's. going back to this initial threat in january britain's. going back to this initial threat injanuary blocking vaccination exports to the uk so they could be funnelled towards the eu instead. they have long argued that eight or 9 million or so doses have been exported to astrazeneca factories, pfizer factories across europe to the uk and the uk has exported zero back, that's down to those contracts that we signed that are pretty watertight with astrazeneca and clearly that you didn't. trustingly, that you commissioner asked for provisions in the treaties to seize the means of supply for that you to come and literally sees factories and start directing those factories to do with the eu wants and rather than with the eu wants and rather than with the countries are nation states with ar. pretty extraordinary that she didn't rule that out either. i think the british government is looking this and saying that they don't expect either of these threats to come true, it's more for astrazeneca to try to persuade them again to redirect their supply elsewhere. reddish government response is really interesting to this one this time around. we have the same row, remember, injanuary over the remember, in january over the triggering remember, injanuary over the triggering of our goal to an article 16 in northern ireland which effectively closes the north—south border in ireland to try to stop vaccine supply going into northern ireland other than it was, but that was pretty dramatic. at the time, ursula von der leyen rangel boris johnson and had to promise that of course she would be doing no such thing. on the british government played it all down. they are quite happy to ramp it, dominic raab, the foreign secretary coming out today and accusing them of not a very democratic institution but more like a dictatorship. and it mayjust strike me that britain stands to profit, really, from a good old route with the eu at the moment as it didn't injanuary, and that is because of the row we are having with the northern ireland protocol over brexit in northern ireland itself, and if the british government can suggest that you are rather unreasonable, which perhaps they are looking like now, then it may be the bridge government may not have to do is much as what it already agreed to contractually do with the withdrawal agreement. let's wait and see how that one pans out. i do thank you have brought all the stories into one, haven't you, tom? the daily telegraph is stories into one, haven't you, tom? the daily telegraph— the daily telegraph is also showing ursula von der— the daily telegraph is also showing ursula von der leyen _ the daily telegraph is also showing ursula von der leyen on _ the daily telegraph is also showing ursula von der leyen on its - the daily telegraph is also showing ursula von der leyen on its front i ursula von der leyen on its front cover, but also focusing on the production issues when it comes to the vaccines that here in the uk will mean that under 50's will be forced to wait for another month before new appointments will be announced. as they describe it, production issues as matt hancock earlier on was describing as lumpy supply of vaccines. i know, tom, you have an update on this, but sonia, just talk us through initially so we can get our heads around what this means for those of us that haven't had the initial dose.— had the initial dose. sure, so it would seem — had the initial dose. sure, so it would seem that _ had the initial dose. sure, so it would seem that there - had the initial dose. sure, so it would seem that there is - had the initial dose. sure, so it would seem that there is quite | had the initial dose. sure, so it. would seem that there is quite a significant supply issue. and i think— significant supply issue. and i think matt hancock did kind of try and play— think matt hancock did kind of try and play it— think matt hancock did kind of try and play it down a little bit in the press _ and play it down a little bit in the press briefing this afternoon when he was _ press briefing this afternoon when he was asked about it, he sort of gave _ he was asked about it, he sort of gave the — he was asked about it, he sort of gave the impression from a well, the nhs has _ gave the impression from a well, the nhs has been sending out lots of letters_ nhs has been sending out lots of letters to — nhs has been sending out lots of letters to vaccination centres, you know, _ letters to vaccination centres, you know, talking about inconsistencies in sllpply, _ know, talking about inconsistencies in supply, but actually, when you look at _ in supply, but actually, when you look at the — in supply, but actually, when you look at the text of this letter, it does _ look at the text of this letter, it does feel— look at the text of this letter, it does feel different from what we have seen before, because what nhs england _ have seen before, because what nhs england is_ have seen before, because what nhs england is warning of it is the week of march _ england is warning of it is the week of march 29, quite a significant drop— of march 29, quite a significant drop in— of march 29, quite a significant drop in supply. so that is going to mean _ drop in supply. so that is going to mean fewer people than we hoped getting _ mean fewer people than we hoped getting their first dose of the vaccination over the next four weeks. — vaccination over the next four weeks. so _ vaccination over the next four weeks, so it's quite a long period which _ weeks, so it's quite a long period which we — weeks, so it's quite a long period which we are expecting a different sulph— which we are expecting a different supply as — which we are expecting a different supply as well. and it seems that these _ supply as well. and it seems that these are — supply as well. and it seems that these are supply issues, you know, one of— these are supply issues, you know, one of the — these are supply issues, you know, one of the things that sort of we have _ one of the things that sort of we have all— one of the things that sort of we have all been learning about, i'm sure _ have all been learning about, i'm sure most— have all been learning about, i'm sure most people know more about the production— sure most people know more about the production of vaccines i year into this pandemic than they did a year ago. _ this pandemic than they did a year ago. and _ this pandemic than they did a year ago, and you know, one of the things we have _ ago, and you know, one of the things we have learned is that actually creating — we have learned is that actually creating vaccines, the supply chain for vaccines— creating vaccines, the supply chain for vaccines is not a simple process _ for vaccines is not a simple process. it's not like you just put some _ process. it's not like you just put some raw— process. it's not like you just put some raw materials together and you know exactly how much vaccine you are going _ know exactly how much vaccine you are going to — know exactly how much vaccine you are going to get out. these are... it is are going to get out. these are... it is a _ are going to get out. these are... it is a process, and sometimes it's a bit _ it is a process, and sometimes it's a bit unpredictable, particularly when _ a bit unpredictable, particularly when you — a bit unpredictable, particularly when you are just starting a production of a new vaccine on a massive — production of a new vaccine on a massive scale, how much you are going _ massive scale, how much you are going to — massive scale, how much you are going to get out, you know, those issues _ going to get out, you know, those issues are — going to get out, you know, those issues are certainly hitting astrazeneca before, and that was the basis, _ astrazeneca before, and that was the basis, the _ astrazeneca before, and that was the basis, the row that we saw with the eu a few— basis, the row that we saw with the eu a few weeks ago about whether they were — eu a few weeks ago about whether they were getting the amount of vaccine — they were getting the amount of vaccine that they thought that they, you know. _ vaccine that they thought that they, you know, had contracted for. and i think— you know, had contracted for. and i think i'm _ you know, had contracted for. and i think i'm you— you know, had contracted for. and i think i'm you know, these are probably— think i'm you know, these are probably the issues that are affecting supply here in the uk as well _ affecting supply here in the uk as well. ., ,., affecting supply here in the uk as well. ., ,, affecting supply here in the uk as well. ., i. ., ., well. tom, so you have got the latest line _ well. tom, so you have got the latest line from _ well. tom, so you have got the latest line from inside - well. tom, so you have got the latest line from inside the - latest line from inside the government when it comes to the delay problem from of the supply problem for the uk. so bring us up—to—date. problem for the uk. so bring us up-to-date-_ problem for the uk. so bring us u-to-date. ., ., , , up-to-date. people have obviously been talking. _ up-to-date. people have obviously been talking, and _ up-to-date. people have obviously been talking, and they _ up-to-date. people have obviously been talking, and they will - up-to-date. people have obviously been talking, and they will expand | up-to-date. people have obviously. been talking, and they will expand a little bit more but what's happening, it's two things, really, first, astrazeneca has international manufacturing and supply chain problems. that's at the root of this dip in what they are able to supply, and it's astrazeneca's failure to supply as much as they said they could at their root of this slow down, if you like. it's not the uk factories come to the uk factories are working well where they bottle the doses, it's the bigger ones in india that they are reporting the serum institute, which produces vast amounts of doses, millions of doughnut to connect doses of astrazeneca, they have some supply problems. it's notjust astrazeneca, it's maternal and johnson & johnson that it's maternal and johnson &johnson that are the it's maternal and johnson & johnson that are the other it's maternal and johnson &johnson that are the other major manufacturers of the vaccine who are also having problems. it's a completed business, vaccines. they are living breathing organisms, and sometimes batches fail, and when they do them so quickly and with such a hurry, the supply is all was good to be a bit of a problem. it's couple that with the other of all of us, which is, of course, the bottleneck which we should also expect at the beginning of april, and of march of second doses kicking in. you have to have your second dose 11 or 12 weeks after your first dose, and you comes back the week beginning january 11 was when the real ramp up in vaccinations began in the uk, and all of those people vaccinated from january and onwards has to get there second dose from march the 29th and onwards. so already the system has to cope with effectively doubling all the second doses having to happen at simultaneous first doses for the under 50's kicking in, people in their 40s, under 50's kicking in, people in their40s, people under 50's kicking in, people in their 40s, people like me, who are expecting it's quite soon, now we have to wait a bit longer. you can't run those two programme simultaneously any longer. so what is going to have to give? those first doses have to step aside, wait four weeks while the second doses get there second dose, those other ones, most of us, those are the ones who are most vulnerable, so that is a fair thing who are most vulnerable, so that is a fairthing for who are most vulnerable, so that is a fair thing for all us to do. right now, a fair thing for all us to do. right now. over _ a fair thing for all us to do. right now. over 25 _ a fair thing for all us to do. right now, over 25 million _ a fair thing for all us to do. right now, over 25 million people - a fair thing for all us to do. right now, over 25 million people have had their first dose, now, over 25 million people have had theirfirst dose, but 1.7 million have had both doses, so that's a fair point. thank you, tom. let's look at the guardian, because again, sonia, it has got this particular story on it as well, but it has also got the relatives who are threatening the government with legal action if there isn't an inquiry, statutory public inquiry into how the government dealt with this pandemic. into how the government dealt with this pandemic-— into how the government dealt with this pandemic. yes, so, some of the urou s, this pandemic. yes, so, some of the groups. peeple _ this pandemic. yes, so, some of the groups. people who _ this pandemic. yes, so, some of the groups, people who really _ this pandemic. yes, so, some of the groups, people who really tragically | groups, people who really tragically lost relatives to co—bed have said that they — lost relatives to co—bed have said that they are going to take the government to court because they believe _ government to court because they believe it— government to court because they believe it is breaking its duty to the public— believe it is breaking its duty to the public if it doesn't announce details — the public if it doesn't announce details of— the public if it doesn't announce details of an inquiry by easter. i think— details of an inquiry by easter. i think this — details of an inquiry by easter. i think this ? ?deword there is quite details of an inquiry by easter. i think this ??deword there is quite a lot going _ think this ??deword there is quite a lot going on here, so they are calling — lot going on here, so they are calling for— lot going on here, so they are calling for a proper public inquiry, statutory— calling for a proper public inquiry, statutory where people can be compelled to come and give evidence. and i compelled to come and give evidence. and i think— compelled to come and give evidence. and i think everyone wants to see that type — and i think everyone wants to see that type of inquiry because it's rcatty— that type of inquiry because it's really important that we learned the lessons _ really important that we learned the lessons that we learned, and the right— lessons that we learned, and the right lessons from this pandemic. i think— right lessons from this pandemic. i think there — right lessons from this pandemic. i think there is a question about timing. — think there is a question about timing, though, ithink think there is a question about timing, though, i think it's obsolete _ timing, though, i think it's obsolete fair to ask boris johnson to sort— obsolete fair to ask boris johnson to sort of— obsolete fair to ask boris johnson to sort of give, to commit to a statutory _ to sort of give, to commit to a statutory inquiry into sort of, you know. _ statutory inquiry into sort of, you know. put — statutory inquiry into sort of, you know, put some details around when that might _ know, put some details around when that might be in the future. but i think. _ that might be in the future. but i think. you — that might be in the future. but i think, you know, it would be difficult _ think, you know, it would be difficult to do it now, probably, as, difficult to do it now, probably, as. you — difficult to do it now, probably, as, you know, as we are still dealing — as, you know, as we are still dealing with the pandemic. i think the guardian story also focuses on the guardian story also focuses on the public— the guardian story also focuses on the public who support this and there _ the public who support this and there is— the public who support this and there is really high support for proper— there is really high support for proper public inquiry, sol there is really high support for proper public inquiry, so i think it's 49% — proper public inquiry, so i think it's 49% of— proper public inquiry, so i think it's 49% of the public are supporting him only 18% against, so there _ supporting him only 18% against, so there is— supporting him only 18% against, so there is clearly that public appetite there. i think what we absolutely need is asked a proper statutory— absolutely need is asked a proper statutory inquiry, but the other important _ statutory inquiry, but the other important question are the lessons that we _ important question are the lessons that we are — important question are the lessons that we are being learned as we go along _ that we are being learned as we go along the — that we are being learned as we go along. the point that these relative groups— along. the point that these relative groups are — along. the point that these relative groups are raising is the government 'ust groups are raising is the government just didn't _ groups are raising is the government just didn't learn a lesson to the first lockdown when many people said lockdown _ first lockdown when many people said lockdown started too late. it made those _ lockdown started too late. it made those sorts of mistakes again in october. — those sorts of mistakes again in october, november, december, and in the run-up_ october, november, december, and in the run-up to— october, november, december, and in the run—up to christmas. and i think there _ the run—up to christmas. and i think the